GDP Loss Research Articles

The economic influence of oil shortage and the optimal strategic petroleum reserve in China

Strategic petroleum reserve (SPR) plays an vital role in ensuring energy security. China initiated the strategic petroleum reserve in 2004. The optimal scale of SPR has become a concern to policymakers. The paper adopts a computable general equilibrium (CGE) model to examine the influence of oil shortages on the economy. It is revealed that when the shortage rate reaches 25%, the price of domestic crude oil will rise by 121.2%, the price of refined petroleum products will rise by 67.8%, and the GDP will decline by 0.7%. The GDP loss is accelerated with the shortage rate rises. The output of coal, electricity and other energy will increase, and most non-energy sectors will decline. There is an inverse U-shaped curve between net export and oil shortage. Based on the result of CGE, we further develop a framework to determine the optimal SPR. The results indicate that the optimal stockpile is 389 million barrels, which is higher than the current reserve scale. At least an additional 198 million barrels of reserves are required. In addition, a sensitivity analysis is conducted to quantify the impact of exogenous variables. The findings of this paper can provide reference information for the policy maker to formulate SPR planning.

COVID lessons: was there any way to reduce the negative effect of COVID-19 on the United States economy?

PurposeThis paper aims to assess the economic impact of uniform COVID-controlling policies that were implemented by the US government in 2020 and compare it with hypothetical targeted policies that consider the heterogenous effect of COVID-19 on different age groups.Design/methodology/approachThe author began by showing that the adjusted SEQIHR model is a good fit to the US COVID-induced daily death data in that it can capture the nonlinearities of the data very well. Then, he used this model with extra parameters to evaluate the economic effects of COVID-19 through its impact on the job market.FindingsThe results show that targeted COVID-controlling policies could reduce the US death rate and GDP loss to 0.03% and 2%, respectively. By comparing these results with uniform COVID-controlling policies, which led to a 0.1% death rate and 3.5% GDP loss, we could conclude that the death rate reduction is 0.07%. Approximately 378,000 Americans died because of COVID-19 during 2020, therefore, reducing the death rate to 0.03% means saving a significant proportion of the COVID-19 casualties, around 280,000 lives.Originality/valueTo the best of the author's knowledge, this paper is the first study to assess the economic impacts of COVID-controlling policies by using the multirisk SEQIHR model.

Greece 2010–18: What Could Have Been Done Differently?

At the beginning of 2010, the fiscal situation of Greece was unsustainable, and an ambitious but costly adjustment plan had to be put in place under a consortium of the International Monetary Fund, the European Commission and the European Central Bank. It took three consecutive adjustment programmes, including debt-relief through private sector involvement, to restore confidence in the economy and achieve a budget surplus. In this paper, we provide a theoretical analysis of the Greek Crisis starting from 2010. We build a series of counterfactuals using the National Institute General Econometric Model (NIGEM) to analyse why the cost of the adjustment in terms of GDP loss and increase in debt-to-GDP ratio turned out to be much worse than expected. In doing so, we analyse three scenarios: (i) one in which we simulate a much more conservative cut in public investment by the Greek central government; (ii) a second scenario of a lower risk-premium, signalling, e.g., lower political and re-denomination risks, had the European Central Bank guaranteed its lending of last resort role earlier than 2012; (iii) finally, a similar financial envelope as the one adopted during the first Greek adjustment programme but over a longer period, moving beyond the standard IMF three-year duration programmes. We find that the mix of expenditure cuts and loss of confidence among households and firms explain a large part of the unanticipated costs of the adjustment in the Greek crisis.

China's unconventional carbon emissions trading market: The impact of a rate-based cap in the power generation sector

China has launched a national level carbon emissions trading market with a rate-based cap and benchmarks in the power generation sector. This emissions trading system (ETS) differs from a mass-based one, which lacks an absolute carbon cap. This study assesses the impact of such an unconventional ETS on economic development, carbon emission mitigation, and power system transition by applying a multi-regional dynamic computable general equilibrium model. The results show that ETS can facilitate the decarbonisation of the power sector and reduce carbon intensities of coal and gas power, the two technologies covered at the first stage of China's ETS. Furthermore, power generation of these technologies will be decreased significantly, and a noticeable fallback of electrification will occur. National GDP loss under a rate-based cap is slightly higher than the one under a mass-based cap, while provincial GDP losses have close relations with coal phaseout and permit scarcity.

The implicit cost of carbon abatement during the COVID-19 pandemic

This paper provides novel estimates of the implicit cost of carbon abatement associated with the COVID-19 crisis. We compare that to the costs from renewable investments that would lead to similar abatement. Focusing on the Spanish economy and its power sector, we combine machine learning and simulation tools to construct a precise counterfactual of market performance in absence of the crisis. Results suggest that power sector CO2 emissions fell by 4.13 Million Tons (about 11.5%) during 2020 due to the pandemic, less than half of the actual year-on-year emissions reductions. Investing in renewables to achieve similar carbon abatement would yield an implicit cost of 60–65 Euro/Ton of CO2. Conversely, the pandemic caused a substantial GDP loss in Spain, relative to the extent of overall carbon abatement. The resulting cost of carbon abatement associated with the pandemic thus exceeded 7 thousand Euro/Ton.

Pharmacoeconomic analysis of ferric carboxymaltose in patients with chronic heart failure and iron deficiency in the Russian Federation

Aim: To evaluate the economic efficiency of using ferric carboxymaltose (FCM) in patients with chronic heart failure with reduced left ventricular ejection fraction (CHFrEF) and iron deficiency (ID) in the Russian Federation Methods: The analysis of the cost of maintaining CHFrEF with ID was carried out and an analytical decision-making model was built in MS Excel, which allows estimating the costs from the position of the state in the management of patients with CHFrEF with ID when using FCM in comparison with placebo. Results: The use of FCM in 633,301 patients with CHFrEF and ID for 1 year will prevent 72,386 hospitalizations for CHF and reduce the number of days spent by patients in the hospital by 1,136,141 days. Taking into account the direct costs of stopping adverse events, as well as the indirect costs of paying disability benefits and GDP losses, the potential economic benefit of using FCV when prescribing 633,301 CHFrEF and DJ to patients for 1 year can be 4.280 million rubles. per year of therapy. The use of FCM in patients with CHFrEF and ID is advisable immediately after an episode of CHF decompensation in order to reduce the risk of subsequent hospitalizations for worsening CHF and increase the cost per patient by only 4 642 rubles. per year (18 %), while significantly improving the prognosis of patients and their quality of life. Conclusion: FCM can be recommended for inclusion in the standards of medical care, clinical guidelines, formularies of healthcare facilities, application templates within the framework of the regional (RLO) and federal drug benefits, as well as federal and regional programs aimed at improving the control of the clinical course CHFrEF with ID.

Short-Term and Long-Term Impacts of Air Pollution Control on China's Economy.

To deal with severe air pollution arising from rapid development, a series of air pollution control policies have been implemented in China. Previous literature has explored the short-term economic impacts of air pollution control, but the long-term economic impacts, which can better reflect the effectiveness of air pollution control, have received less attention. This paper has constructed an integrated assessment framework combining a multi-sectoral computable general equilibrium (CGE) model, air quality estimation module, and health impact module, to explore the short-term (2016) and long-term (2030) impacts of air pollution control on China's economy, by setting 2015 as the base year. The possible future air pollution reduction scenarios were set based on the Thirteenth Five-Year Plan (FYP13) proposed by the Chinese government. Our results have shown that air pollution control would harm China's economy and such adverse effects would be increased by stricter pollution reduction targets. Taking the health benefits of air pollution control into account can effectively alleviate the GDP losses, and even reverse them into economic benefits in the long term. Compared with business-as-usual (BAU) scenario (no policy constraints on SO2 and NOx emissions), the impact of air pollution control on GDP in the TAC_VIII scenario (emission reduction targets of 20% for SO2 and NOx are set every five years after 2015) would change from a loss of 1.20% in 2016 to an increase of 0.28% in 2030. Our results can provide policy implications for the optimization of China's air emissions control in the future.

Socioeconomic impacts of resilience to seaport and highway transportation network disruption

• An integrated transportation-socioeconomic impact model is developed and applied. • Aggregate and distributional impacts of port-transportation disruptions are simulated. • Resilience tactics can substantially reduce potential GDP losses. • Losses from port disruptions increase income inequality . • Port resilience tactics reduce inequality from port disruptions. An integrated transportation-socioeconomic model is developed to analyze the economic consequences of and resilience to seaport and associated transportation network disruptions. Since such disruptions can affect people in a region unequally, the model is constructed to analyze both aggregate economic impacts and impacts across socioeconomic groups. We illustrate the model’s usefulness in a simulated earthquake scenario affecting the Ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach. Total GDP losses from port disruptions, highway transportation cost increases, and general building damages, working through regional and interregional supply-chains, are estimated at $24.2 billion in the Port Region and $30.2 billion in the U.S. as a whole. A combination of several resilience tactics is estimated to reduce GDP impacts by 41.3% in LA and 57.6% in the U.S. The distributional analysis indicates the extent to which lower-to-middle-income groups are more proportionally impacted by port disruptions and middle-to-higher-income groups are more impacted by building damages.

Economic impacts of carbon capture and storage on the steel industry–A hybrid energy system model incorporating technological change

Carbon capture and storage (CCS) is necessary to reduce greenhouse gas emissions that cannot be mitigated using other reduction options. However, the high cost of CCS raises doubts about its economic feasibility. This study analyzes CCS cost reduction and its macroeconomic effects and shows that CCS can be economically feasible in the long term. This study incorporates technology learning into a hybrid energy system model and investigates its impact on the economic feasibility of CCS in the Korean steel industry. The hybrid model integrates a bottom-up energy system model and a computable general equilibrium model and overcomes the limitations of employing independent models in exploring technology learning. According to the model, in 2050, the CCS unit cost decreases by 64% when the learning rate is 20%. Due to this cost reduction, the steel industry’s additional capital and labor costs resulting from CCS adoption decrease by 60%. Moreover, although CCS adoption and diffusion reduce steel production, 60% of this production loss can be mitigated by CCS cost reduction. The cost reduction also helps to reduce the GDP loss resulting from CCS adoption by 0.3 %p.

Pandemi Döneminde Milletlerin Zenginliği: Aşı Eşitliği

Aggressive global dissemination of the coronavirus indicated the urgency of the development of vaccines at an unprecedented rate and scale. The limited production and short supply of vaccines which were reserved mostly for the advanced economies were the greatest problems of 2021. For emerging economies, this timeline will stretch to late 2022 or early 2023. As a part of systematic immunization programs, the development, licensing, and implementation of the vaccines against the Covid-19 virus started to address health service inequalities among countries. While on one hand vaccination is regarded to be one of the most cost-effective interventions in public health during the pandemic, on the other hand, the introduction and sustainable supply of vaccines needed to be supported and ensured by decision-makers and governments. Due to the weak economic conditions of developing countries, they could not provide enough financial and health support to their citizens during this period. However, since the global GDP loss from not inoculating all countries is higher than the cost of manufacturing and distributing vaccines globally, there has been a growing demand to international cooperation to have global vaccination without omitting any countries. This paper focuses on the economic and social costs and benefits of vaccinations during the Covid-19 pandemic period in advanced, middle, and low-income countries. Accordingly, macroeconomic and social impacts of vaccination will be discussed and some policy suggestions will be put forth to get more benefits from the vaccination both for economic and health outcomes.

Capturing a rhodopsin receptor signalling cascade across a native membrane

G protein-coupled receptors (GPCRs) are cell-surface receptors that respond to various stimuli to induce signalling pathways across cell membranes. Recent progress has yielded atomic structures of key intermediates1,2 and roles for lipids in signalling3,4. However, capturing signalling events of a wild-type receptor in real time, across a native membrane to its downstream effectors, has remained elusive. Here we probe the archetypal class A GPCR, rhodopsin, directly from fragments of native disc membranes using mass spectrometry. We monitor real-time photoconversion of dark-adapted rhodopsin to opsin, delineating retinal isomerization and hydrolysis steps, and further showing that the reaction is significantly slower in its native membrane than in detergent micelles. Considering the lipids ejected with rhodopsin, we demonstrate that opsin can be regenerated in membranes through photoisomerized retinal–lipid conjugates, and we provide evidence for increased association of rhodopsin with unsaturated long-chain phosphatidylcholine during signalling. Capturing the secondary steps of the signalling cascade, we monitor light activation of transducin (Gt) through loss of GDP to generate an intermediate apo-trimeric G protein, and observe Gαt•GTP subunits interacting with PDE6 to hydrolyse cyclic GMP. We also show how rhodopsin-targeting compounds either stimulate or dampen signalling through rhodopsin–opsin and transducin signalling pathways. Our results not only reveal the effect of native lipids on rhodopsin signalling and regeneration but also enable us to propose a paradigm for GPCR drug discovery in native membrane environments.

Economic Burden of COVID-19: A Systematic Review.

ObjectiveTo review and qualitatively synthesize the evidence related to the economic burden of COVID-19, including healthcare resource utilization and costs.MethodsA systematic review of studies that assessed the economic burden [eg, direct costs, productivity, macroeconomic impact due to non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) and equity] of COVID-19 was conducted by searches in EMBASE, MEDLINE, MEDLINE-IN-PROCESS, and The Cochrane Library, as well as manual searches of unpublished research for the period between January 2020 to February 2021. Single reviewer data extraction was confirmed independently by a second reviewer.ResultsThe screening process resulted in a total of 27 studies: 25 individual publications, and 2 systematic literature reviews, of narrower scopes, that fulfilled the inclusion criteria. The patients diagnosed with more severe COVID-19 were associated with higher costs. The main drivers for higher costs were consistent across countries and included ICU admission, in-hospital resource use such as mechanical ventilation, which lead to increase costs of $2082.65 ± 345.04 to $2990.76 ± 545.98. The most frequently reported indirect costs were due to productivity losses. On average, older COVID-19 patients incurred higher costs when compared to younger age groups. An estimation of a 20% COVID-19 infection rate based on a Monte Carlo simulation in the United States led to a total direct medical cost of $163.4 billion over the course of the pandemic.ConclusionThe COVID-19 pandemic has generated a considerable economic burden on patients and the general population. Preventative measures such as NPIs only have partial success in lowering the economic costs of the pandemic. Implementing additional preventative measures such as large-scale vaccination is vital in reducing direct and indirect medical costs, decreased productivity, and GDP losses.

Trend Analysis and Spatial Distribution of Meteorological Disaster Losses in China, 2004–2015

Meteorological disasters caused a lot of losses. We involved six categories (all disasters, floods, hail, typhoon, snow and heatwave) to observe their death and economic losses’ spatial-time distribution. The time trend of mortality was analyzed using a chi-square test for linear trends. Economic loss was described by direct economic loss and loss rate of GDP, whose trends were described by a trend line. Using annual percent change (APC) estimated by fitting weighted linear regression model, the change degree of mortality was assessed. On a national level, there was a statistically significant decreasing trend in mortality of all disasters (Z = −39.82, p < 0.05), floods (Z = −18.79, p < 0.05), hail (Z = −20.43, p < 0.05), typhoon (Z = −37.47, p < 0.05), snow (Z = −9.02, p < 0.05) and heatwave (Z = −8.76, p < 0.05) from 2004 to 2015 in China. The time trend of the loss rate of GDP was decreasing while the trend of direct economic losses was increasing. Western China was the most seriously hit area. APCs remained in downward trends (APCs < 0) in most of the provinces, while central provinces were with upward trends (APCs > 0). Areas with increasing mortality (APCs > 0) for different disasters included the southwest areas and Zhejiang (for floods), the northwest and south areas (for hail), Sichuan, Guangxi and Hainan (for typhoon), the west and northeast areas (for snow) and Hebei, Henan and Shanghai (for heatwave). As for economic losses, eastern areas were hit with a high amount of economic losses, but central areas were hit with a high GDP loss rate. Generally, nationwide death and economic losses caused by meteorological disasters have decreased. However, there were some relatively serious effects in the central and western areas for which urgent attention from policymakers is required.

Estimating US Earnings Loss Associated with COVID-19 Based on Human Capital Calculation.

Infection with COVID-19 could result in lockdown, quarantine of contacts, absenteeism from work, and temporary productivity loss. This research aims to calculate (1) how the pandemic affects on-the-job probability and earnings for the working population, and (2) how much productivity loss is associated with self or a family member sick with COVID-19. Based on data collected from the U.S Research and Development Survey (RANDS), this research projects the relationship between on-the-job possibility and age of the index group and calculates the employment possibilities of the index group relative to the healthy group, namely the employment ratio. The weekly loss of productivity, presented by earnings, associated with COVID-19 for groups aged 18–44 years and 45–64 years was calculated, since the 18- to 64-year-old population is an economy’s active workforce. Analytical results indicate that the older the age group, the lower the on-the-job possibility, and the higher the weekly productivity loss due to self or a family member being sick from COVID-19. For the group aged 45–64 years, the employment ratio of the index group relative to the healthy group dropped from 0.863 to 0.39, corresponding to a weekly productivity loss of 136–590 US dollars. The overall impact would be about a 9% loss in GDP. Infected or quarantined people would be confined to working in relatively isolated offices or places to allow for social distancing. Proactive health promotion in the workplace plus reactive work through telecommunication systems would reduce such losses. Such preparedness needs to be implemented early for more vulnerable workers who are of middle or old age and/or those comorbid with diabetes.

Prevalence, pattern and predictors of work-related musculoskeletal disorders among oil workers in Nigeria.

Work-related musculoskeletal disorders (WMSD) account for a loss of GDP in most countries. The oil sector is the largest and most economically relevant industry in Nigeria, yet the impact of WMSD on workers in this industry is unknown. To assess the prevalence, pattern and predictors of WMSD among oil workers in Nigeria. This exploratory study was conducted in oil producing companies in Nigeria. Nordic Musculoskeletal Questionnaire was used to assess WMSD, while risk factors and demographic variables were obtained through an interview. Obtained data were analysed using descriptive statistics, Chi-square and logistic regression at α=0.05RESULTS:A total of 198 (138 male, 60 female) oil workers aged 40.3±10.1 years participated in this study. The prevalence of WMSD was 88.8%, and was most common around the low-back (51.5%), and neck (44.4%) regions. There was a significant association between WMSD and each of duration of service (X2 = 45.44, p = 0.020), awkward neck postures at work (X2 = 12.46, p = 0.006), inadequate training on injury prevention (X2 = 11.98, p = 0.007), and continuing to work while feeling discomfort (X2 = 10.83, p = 0.013). Post-hoc analysis revealed that being a male oil worker (OR = 1.17, p = 0.037) and continuing to work while feeling discomfort or pain (OR = 2.23, p = 0.048) were the significant predictors of WMSD. Approximately nine in every ten oil workers in Nigeria have a WMSD. Male gender and work persistence amidst discomfort or pain are the predictors of WMSD among oil workers in Nigeria. Ergonomics training and evaluation programme is recommended for workers in this industry.

"Crime and Punishment"? How Russian Banks Anticipated and Dealt with Global Financial Sanctions

We study the impact of global financial sanctions on the Russian banks and economy. Financial sanctions were consecutively imposed between 2014 and 2019, allowing potentially-targeted (but not yet sanctioned) banks to adjust their international and domestic exposures. Compared to similar other banks, targeted banks immediately reduced their foreign assets. Yet, to deal with considerable domestic depositor withdrawals, targeted banks at first actually expanded their foreign liabilities. Once sanctioned, however, banks not only further reduced their foreign assets but also started to decrease their foreign liabilities as well. Despite the introduction of government support the sanctioned banks substantially contracted their lending to the domestic corporate sector resulting in a potential loss in domestic GDP of at least four percent. However, at the same time the sanctioned banks increased household lending by almost the same magnitude, mostly offsetting the loss in GDP. Finally, unique hand-collected board membership and location data coupled with a two-stage difference-in-differences approach that flexibly addresses potential treatment diffusion allows us to show that throughout this period state-controlled banks were not all equally recognized as potential sanction targets.

Impacts of COVID-19 on the Garment Sector of Bangladesh

In this study, the principal purpose has been made to investigate the impacts of COVID-19 outbreak on the garment sector of Bangladesh including Bangladesh economy using the modern econometric techniques. For this study, the time series variables GDP, total export values (TEX), sales revenue of the garment sector (REVGS), employment in the garment sector (EMP), remittance inflows (REM) and unemployment rate (UNR) of Bangladesh are used in order to find the impacts of COVID-19 outbreak. In this paper, the impacts of COVID-19 outbreak are predicted using the Holt-Winters’ seasonal additive method for all variables individually for the years 2020 and 2021 and then for each and every variable the future values are forecasted. From the predicted results it is found that the loss of GDP, TEX, REVGS, and REM are $31,677.475 million, $6771.5296 million, $6854.089 million and $3941.4486 million in the year 2020 and in the year 2021 it will be $13,544.415 million, $3044.7328 million, $2026.187 million, and $934.513 million respectively for the country wide lockdown due to COVID-19 outbreak. In terms of percentage, the loss of these variables is 13.973%, 13.9726%, 21.789% and 21.650% in the year 2020 and 6.945%, 7.303%, 6.395% and 5.826% in the year 2021 respectively. From the forecasted values the declining trend is found for the variable sales revenue of the garment sector (REVGS) and will be continued for a long period of time. The long-lasting declining trend of REVGS is a red alarming for the garment sector as well as for the Bangladesh economy. Therefore all the stakeholders including BGMEA, BKMEA, and Bangladesh government have to take necessary steps from now to overcome the problem. From the predicted values it is found that in the garment sector the growths of employment are negative by -1.442% and -10.406% in the years 2020 and 2021 respectively. During the period of COVID-19 more than 348 garment factories have shut-down and 0.4 million garment workers lost their jobs. It is found that unemployment rate is upswing by 58.234% in the year 2020 and then will fall back by 18.72% in the year 2021, but from 2022 again increases returning to moderate levels with an increasing rate of 2.47% and will be continued for a long period of time due to COVID-19 outbreak. The long-lasting increases in unemployment rate will cause adverse effects on socio-economic conditions including the livelihood of the marginal people. During the period of COVID-19, unexpected outcomes such as reported women are being raped and suicide may adversely affect the mental health status of the garment female workers for future. Thus from the predicted values, the following policies should be implemented to tackle the problem of sales revenue, to improve the employment condition in garment sector and also to improve unemployment conditions in Bangladesh. The garment sector should develop and maintain good relationships with the international buyers and related stakeholders and have to negotiate with them regarding the price of the products. Price reduction policy with maintaining the quality of the products should be implemented for which the global demand will be increased as a result sales revenue of the garment sector will be increased. Emphasize should be given to provide tax benefits, to advance livelihoods programming for vulnerable workers, to formalize a centralized government database for the garment sector, to expand social protection programs for all garment workers, including unemployment benefits and housing and to rebuild trust between buyers, employers and workers. Monetary motivation and minimum risk premium policy should be introduced for which the garment workers can work with full enthusiasm. Collaboration between government and garment sector including other sectors should be developed to keep people employed and train them. Well-designed database can be created for matching job seekers and employers. Upskilling or reskilling the individual in conformance with the need of future driven skill trend. Enhancing digital literacy that will help the workers to find job in rapidly changing labor market. Entrepreneurs should be encouraged and different stimulus packages should be allocated and emphasize should be given for proper management of these packages so that there will be no scope of wastage money, as a result money can be used for right purposes. These policies will play significant roles for future development of the garment sector as well as for Bangladesh economy.

Endogenous development risks for Ukrainian regions in war

The article identifies the main endogenous development risks for Ukrainian regions in war. The article specifies that the projected loss of GDP will depend on the amount of territory lost and the intensity of hostilities. Blocking the ways of commodity export became one of the means of waging war. The reasons for the reduction in export volumes, which increases the risk of losing the export potential of the regions, are revealed. The article emphasizes that the export of agricultural products and metallurgy experiences the highest rate of reduction. The increase in the duration of the war is proven to increase the risk of loss of export markets for Ukraine. The logistics problems are among the main reasons for export losses in the first half of 2022. The lack of the export routes diversification policy has become one of the biggest economic problems in the war. Obstacles to the involvement of railway transport in the export of commodity products and the preservation of the endogenous potential of the regions are outlined. The article determines that the border regions receive a significant potential for endogenous development due to the activation of transit and international railway transportation. The blockade of export routes for agricultural products increases the tension in the international food market. African and Asian countries are most dependent on the export of Ukrainian grain. Alternative directions for the development of logistic ways of product transportation are determined. The raw material nature of Ukrainian commodity exports remains a problem. The directions for the integration of Ukrainian products into international chains of added value are outlined. The industries most dependent on Ukrainian exports are identified. Strengthening the endogenous potential of the regions requires diversification of the export structure with an increase in the share of high-tech products. The further integration of Ukrainian enterprises into European and global value chains is necessary for the strategic development of the economy.

Дослідження безпеки дорожнього руху на автошляхах

The indicators of road safety on the roads of Ukraine, on the example of Ternopil region are analyzed. It is established that currently in the world road accidents are one of the main causes of death and disability, and create annual GDP losses of 1 to 3%. It is investigated that for January - July 2021 on the street and road network of Ternopil region 1509 road accidents were registered, which is 19% more than for the same period last year (2020 - 1271 accidents). Organizational measures to improve traffic safety on the road network are proposed. Measures to improve traffic safety on the city's road network are divided into three main areas. The first direction was to organize traffic directly on the road network, the second - in the development of public transport and giving priority to travel. From the point of view of traffic safety, the construction of plans for coordination of traffic light facilities taking into account the movement of public transport can be an acceptable method. The third direction is the direct informational impact on drivers of vehicles.

Impact of COVID-19 on the US and Texas Economy: A General Equilibrium Approach

This paper examines the impact of COVID-19 on the US and Texas economy using a computable general equilibrium model, REMI PI+. We consider three scenarios based on economic forecasts from various sources, including the University of Michigan’s RSQE (Research Seminar in Quantitative Economics), IMF, and the Wi orld Bank. We report a GDP loss of $106 million (a 6% decline) with 1.2 million jobs lost (6.6%) in Texas in 2020. At the national level, GDP loss is $996 billion (a 5% decline) with 11.5 million jobs lost (5.5%) in the same year. By 2026, the aggregate total GDP loss in Texas ranges from $378 to $629 million. The estimated unemployment rate in Texas in 2021 ranges from 5% to 7.7%, depending on modeling assumptions. The granularity of the CGE results allow examination of the most and least impacted industries. Health Care and Social Assistance, Construction, and Accommodation and Food Services incur the most job loss while State and Local Government and Farm will likely see an increase in jobs for 2020. These insights separate our work from most current impact studies.