Indian GDP Research Articles

Analysis and estimation of India's foreign exchange reserves using soft computing techniques

We used a back propagation type of artificial neural networks (ANN) methodology to forecast the year-wise estimated foreign exchange reserves of India based on past data.The results indicate that in a particular financial year, if we know the values of foreign direct investments, the total expenditure for all the plan schemes and special plan schemes of the Department of Commerce, the export to import ratio, the average import duty rate, and the GDP of India, then the likely value of the foreign exchange reserves for that year can be estimated using our ANN-based method.

Fiscal deficit, capital formation, and economic growth in India: a nonlinear ARDL model

The present study made an attempt to investigate the fiscal deficit–economic growth nexus in India during 1980–1981 to 2016–2017 in the presence of gross domestic capital formation (GDCF), exchange rate, and total revenue. For empirical investigation, the study has employed auto-regressive distributed lag (ARDL) model. The empirical findings of the ARDL model provide evidence that the linear model for India’s fiscal deficit, capital formation, and economic growth dynamics would be misspecification of the model. Therefore, this study has used nonlinear auto-regressive distributed lag (NARDL) bounds testing of cointegration proposed by Shin et al. (in: Festschrift in honor of Peter Schmidt, Springer, New York, 2014) to investigate the long-run and short-run interactions between the variables. The NARDL results found the evidence of asymmetric association between fiscal deficit and GDP and GDCF and GDP in the long-term and short-term time sphere. The obtained results indicate that fiscal deficit has adverse impact on GDP, whereas GDCF has positive influence on GDP in India. This finding supports neoclassical theory regarding the nexus between fiscal deficit and economic growth. The study has suggested that, as per the “golden rule” of public finance, the amount of the fiscal deficit should be spent on capital formation in order to have a long-term multiplier effect on growth.

FDI, GDP, and CO2 Emission: ARDL Bound Cointegration Relationship Examination

The study tries to evaluate empirically, the relationship between foreign direct investment (FDI) and environmental impact with GDP in India using annual data over the period 1980-1981 to 2017-18. The genuine effect on the earth, in any case, might be bigger because CO2 emission is one of the numerous contaminations produced by financial exercises. In any case, CO2 is a worldwide air toxin, our finding has some broad ramifications for the worldwide condition too, with India has risen as the fourth most noteworthy in the worldwide positioning of CO2 emissions by the turn of this century. The Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) Bound Test after which the cointegration and causality tests were analyzed. The error correction models were also predictable to scrutinize the short-run dynamics. The Granger causality test finally deep-rooted the presence of unidirectional causality which long runs from GDP and CO2 to foreign direct investment. The error correction estimates confirmed that the Error-Correction Term is statistically significant and has a negative sign, which confirms that there isn't any problem in the long-run equilibrium relationship between the independent (GDP & CO2 ) and dependent variables (FDI). The study concluded that FDI had a long-run relationship with GDP and CO2 emission

Impact of Foreign Direct Investment on Industrial Growth of India

In India the Foreign direct investment (FDI) has received a staged improvement from instigate of the Make in India scheme, according to recent survey. There was a incredible increase in FDI inflows (40%) particularly in manufacturing sector from October, 2014 to June, 2019 . The industrial sector is considered to be the one of the dominant sectors that contribute the major Indian GDP. India has been ranked fourteenth in the factory output in the world. This was because of the launch of initiative, which sought for promoting manufacturing segments and be a magnet for foreign investments. More than 56 manufacturing units are benefitted in the entire globe. In the recent times during the year 2014 to 2019 the Industrial production inclined to 3.1 per cent, mainly on account of improvement and to encourage talent augmentation towards the various sectors of the economy. This article brings out the recent efforts taken by the government for encouraging the FDI into various sectors and how it has made a pathway. In the last ten years India has shown a tremendous increase in Foreign Direct Investment into the various sectors in economy. Even though Government of India has make a pathway for attracting FDI on various sectors, this papers focuses on explaining the impact of make in India scheme on FDI. In this paper period of five years has been considered for the analysis. The Statistical Tools like Karl Pearson's Coefficient Correlation and One - Way ANOVA has been used for the analysis of data. To study the relationship between the FDI and IIP correlation is used for the analysis of data

Human Capital Development and Economic Growth in BRICS Countries: Controlling for Country Differences

This paper investigates the effect of human capital development on economic growth, as well as controlling for country differences, in the BRICS economies – from 1990 to 2017. Ordinary Least Square (OLS) and Generalized Method of Moments (GMM) were used as the estimation techniques. We use one-way ANOVA and Scheffe pairwise comparison tests to understand how human capital development differed between each pair of countries. Findings suggest that the effect of human capital development on economic growth, though significant, was limited in these countries. A comparative analysis of results showed that China, Brazil and Russia were able to utilise their human capital to enhance economic growth more efficiently than South Africa and India. Consequently, this study observed that a 1% increase in government expenditure on education would result in a 0.13% increase in GDP for China, a 0.06% increase in Russia, a 0.07% increase in Brazil, a 0.04% increase in South Africa, and a 0.01% increase in GDP in India. In addition, the study concluded that human capital development practices differ in all the countries. Although this result was previously implied in the literature, comparison of a comprehensive list of human capital development practices among countries was lacking. Overall, the paper argues that the classical theory of economic growth, in combination with the new theory, and also the theory of market value, will not only help sustain a strategy tripod, but also shed significant light on the most fundamental questions confronting human capital development and economic growth in many developing economies.

Technological progress and sectoral shares in GDP: An analysis with reference to the Indian economy

•Distribution of much of the benefits from productivity gains across sectors through adjustment of relative prices causes value added per unit of output to fall in the progressive and rise in the relatively stagnant sectors. Under such circumstances, if total factor productivity is sought to be measured by taking value added as a proxy for output the result will inevitably be underestimate for the progressive and an overestimate for the relatively stagnant sectors.•Transformation of a low-growth inward looking economy into a substantially liberalized, globalized, high-growth economy had implications for the technical (intermediate input) structure of production as well as adjustment (erosion and buildup) of value added across sectors through changes in relative prices. The study observes that the relative price for the manufacturing sector (vis-a-vis the GDP deflator) declined steadily while that for the service subsector EHPAD (education, health, public administration and defence) increased fast, causing significant adjustment of sectoral value added.•The most interesting finding is the drag on the share of the manufacturing sector caused by adjustment of relative prices; this paring of sectoral share is an important explanation for the stagnation of relative share of manufacturing in GDP of India.•Admitting that the precise measures of sectoral gains or losses are inevitably subject to limitations of quality of data, the very consistent behaviour of the manufacturing and the EHPAD sectors over all the phases of our study lends strong support to the basic hypothesis of Baumol’s disease for the Indian economy and throws light on the apparent stagnation of manufacturing’s GVA share.

Trends in Major Balance of Payment Indicators of India

BOP is a very comprehensive and systematic monetary record of an economy’s external transactions with the Rest of the World (RoW). For India, trends in BOP assume indomitable importance. In this background, this paper intends to present some exciting trends in valuable pointers of BOP of India. The study shows that the ratio of Imports to GDP in India (M/GDP) has still been higher than that of the Exports to GDP (X/GDP). Increasing CAD over the years especially in 2000s and 2010s also throws on the economic risks that has been facing. The growth in foreign investment albeit slow has turned out to be a positive indicator.

Contribution of Industries in the Economic Development of India and Recommendations of New Industrial Policies

An economy is produced using the structure of a wide range of enterprises like agriculture, service, building, fabricating, and so on. These enterprises give such a significant number of advantages to the economy, for example, work age, production of goods and services, equivalent salary conveyance in the entire economy. Service segment contributes 60% of the Indian GDP while agriculture gives around 14% of GDP. Industrialization assumes a crucial job in the economic development of creating nations. As the chronicled record appears, the established countries of the world broke the endless loop of poverty by industrializing, as opposed to concentrating on horticultural or the production of national assets. At present, India, as a creating nation, needs to accomplish a higher expectation for everyday comforts for its kin. Thus, it is seeking strategies that help privatization and deregulation of the economy. Industry assumes a problematic job in economic development; however, these are a portion of its most significant impacts. In India, a large part of the populace is occupied with horticulture. There is an excessive amount of individuals and insufficient land for all to flourish. To increase the situation, our people are developing at a practically alarming rate. The industrial sector is the leading segment that is producing employments at a quicker pace than our populace is developing. Also, this area will draw surplus work from agriculture to it, along these lines improving farm profitability as well. Hence, the current study has been done too, highlighting the contribution of industries in the economic development of India and the recommendations of new industrial policies.

Software and services export, IT investment and GDP nexus in India

PurposeThe purpose of this paper is to investigate both long-run and short-run dynamics among the software and services export, investment in information technology (IT) and GDP in India and to investigate the direction of the relationship among the given three macro-economic variables.Design/methodology/approachThe time series data have been taken to investigate the long-run relationship exists among the variables. Annual data were collected from the NASSCOM Annual Reports, Planning Commission of India and Reserve Bank of India during the period 1980–2016. Cointegration and vector error correction model have been used for analyzing the causal relationship among investment in IT, software exports and GDP in India.FindingsCointegration results confirm that software and services export, investment in IT and GDP are cointegrated, implying that there exists the long-run equilibrium relationship among the given three macro-economic variables. Similarly, vector error correction mechanism Granger causality results hold that there is uni-directional long-run causality running from software and services export and investment in IT to GDP, implying that software and services export is an important determinant of economic growth in India.Research limitations/implicationsThe limitations of the paper are generalization of the results and proxy variable for IT investments.Practical implicationsThe paper has implications for the expansion of market concentration, diversification of software and service exports, and investments in R&D for increasing competitiveness of the industry in the global market.Originality/valueThis paper focuses on originality in the analysis of the relationship among the given variables software exports, investment in the IT sector and GDP in India. All the work has been done in original by the authors and the work used have been acknowledged properly.

Falling behind and catching up: India's transition from a colonial economy

AbstractIndia fell behind during colonial rule. The absolute and relative decline of Indian GDP per capita with respect to Britain began before colonization and coincided with the rise of the textile trade with Europe. However, the fortunes of the traditional textile industry cannot explain the decline in the eighteenth century and stagnation in the nineteenth century as India integrated into the global economy of the British Empire. Inadequate investment in agriculture and consequent decline in yield per acre stalled economic growth. Modern industries emerged and grew relatively fast. The reversal began after independence. Policies of industrialization and a green revolution in agriculture increased productivity in agriculture and industry. However, India's growth in the closing decades of the twentieth century has been led by services. A concentration of human capital in the service sector has origins in colonial policy. Expenditure on education prioritized higher education, creating an advantage for the service sector. At the same time, the slow expansion of primary education lowered the accumulation of human capital and put India at a disadvantage in comparison with the fast‐growing economies of East Asia.

Mediating Role Of Organizational Culture In The Relationship Of Emotional Intelligence And Job Satisfaction-Using Process Macro

The Information Technology sector is one of the best contributing sectors to the Indian GDP growth rate. Even though it is contributing the best, but there are certain issues like frequent movement of the employees’ from one organization to other and the IT companies often using the retrenchment policies in their organization. Here rises the question of job satisfaction, emotional intelligence levels of the employees’ and organizational culture. The main purpose of the study is to find the mediating role of organizational culture in between the emotional intelligence and job satisfaction levels of the employees’. 463 is the sample size and the sample unit is IT professional working at Hyderabad, Telangana. Regression and PROCESS MACRO are the tools used. Emotional intelligence levels of the employees’ were found to have moderately significant impact on Organizational culture and job satisfaction. Process Macro plugin is used for testing the mediation effect. Organizational culture was found to be significantly mediating between Emotional intelligence and job satisfaction

Causal Links Among Banks' Investments on Government Securities, GDP and Different Heads of Central Plan Expenditures in India

Most of the countries from the developing zones used to generate funds through sales of their securities to the commercial banks, among others. The generated fund, a type of public debt, is intended to spend on economic and social infrastructure developments of the countries which further accelerate their GDPs. India is not an exception to this strategy. The present article examines whether there are causal linkages among the banks' investment on government securities, all heads of central plan expenditures and GDP in India for the period 1981-2014. Using the Granger causality tests, the study observes that banks' security investments make a cause to food and fertilizers subsidy, irrigation and flood control, energy and transport sector and, on the other hand, GDP is a cause to total heads of expenditures, total subsidy, food and fertilizers subsidy, irrigation development, rural development, total infrastructure, energy, transport and social services. There are no way causations between either security investment or GDP with agriculture and communication sectors.

An Empirical Study on Changing Face of MSME Towards Emerging Economies in India

In India, MSMEs have a pivotal role to play in the overall growth of industrial economy. In recent years, the MSME sector has consistently registered higher growth rate compared to the overall industrial sector. In India MSMEs contribute nearly 45% to manufacturing and about 40% to the Indian export sector. Their contribution to the Indian GDP is 8% and the sector has registered growth rate of 10.8%. Indian MSMEs have moved up the value chain from manufacture of simple goods to manufacture of sophisticated products. In line with the overall growth in Indian economy, SMEs have entered the services sector as well. Associated with this high growth rates, MSMEs in India are also facing a number of problems like sub-optimal scale of operation, technological obsolescence, supply chain inefficiencies, increasing domestic and global competition, fund shortages, change in manufacturing strategies and turbulent and uncertain market scenario. To survive with such issues and compete with large and global enterprises, MSMEs need to adopt innovative approaches in their working. Innovation could be on multiple parameters like business processes, product/ service development, technology, handling external environment to compete with large enterprises globally. Clustering and networking approach adopted by Government of India and State Governments for development of MSMEs has helped these enterprises in boosting their competitiveness. Indian SMEs are also implementing new and innovative information and communication technologies on a large scale like Software as a Service (SaaS) and Infrastructure as a Service (IaaS). This paper focuses on changing face of MSME in India and the opportunity that offers in the context to industrial growth.

Dynamic causality testing for EKC hypothesis, pollution haven hypothesis and international trade in India

ABSTRACTThis study examines the causality relationships between foreign direct investment (FDI), economic growth (GDP) and CO2 emissions along with the level of trade (exports and imports) taking place in India. The study uses data obtained from World Development Indicators (WDI) of World Bank Group for the period 1982–2013. The study employed the dynamic multivariate Toda-Yamamoto (TY) approach that uses the modified Wald (MWALD) test. Among the major findings of the study are: the existence of both Pollution Haven Hypothesis and Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) hypothesis in India. The other findings of the study are: FDI is causing exports; exports are causing imports; imports are causing CO2 emissions; and finally CO2 emissions and GDP are causing each other. This finding concludes mainly two things. First, India imports more of pollution-intensive manufactured goods. Second, FDI is causing GDP in India but through CO2 emissions.

Formation, Mortality and Firm Age Distribution in Selected States of India

Firm age and its distribution is related to different parameters of an industry and economy. The shape of firm age distribution can indicate firm mortality or survival. However, research on firm age distribution is scant in India. Theoretically, firms are ongoing entities, but in reality firms do die and they exhibit a higher mortality during initial years. Thus the risk of exit is higher at initial ages. So what is the behaviour across states? For this study, seven states of India- Bihar, Kerala, Haryana, Punjab, Odisha, Chhatisgargh and Jharkhand - have been selected according to the similarity in their levels of contribution to the GDP of India. The age data was calculated from the date of registration of the companies as available from the Ministry of Corporate affairs. These companies are active entities as indicated by the MCA database. All together 92,062 companies were considered for this study and it considers all available active companies as on 2015. Firstly, the statistics can be reasonably considered as parameters for the respective states. Secondly, most of firms are of micro, small and medium enterprise in nature, thus the age distribution characteristics reflect MSME sector as well. However, the data has not been segregated sector-wise. The findings indicate that age distribution closely reflects the status of economy and can serve as one of the indicators of business climate. Policy implications are also discussed in the paper.

Infrastructure financing and economic growth in India: an empirical investigation

PurposeThis paper aims to suggest the preferred mode of financing for major sub-sectors of infrastructure: roads, seaports, telecommunication and energy by examining which mode of infrastructure financing – public, private or public–private partnership (PPP) – has the maximum positive impact on the overall GDP of India. The same exercise was carried out for the overall infrastructure sector by integrating data from all the four sub-sectors.Design/methodology/approachThe structural vector autoregressive approach was used with the period of analysis taken from 1995 to 2014. The stationary properties of the variables were checked by the Phillips–Perron unit root.FindingsThe PPP mode of financing was found to make the maximum positive impact on the GDP of India. Considering the four sub-sectors individually, it was concluded that the private mode of financing in roads, energy and telecom sectors has the maximum positive impact on the GDP, while the PPP gives optimal benefit to the seaports sector.Practical implicationsResults will aid the Indian Government and policymakers to efficiently design and develop their economic policies accordingly.Originality/valueThe study is novel in a sense that it helps to address the lack of research into the area of infrastructure financing in India.

Econometric Test on Growth-Unemployment Nexus in India

Generally, the economic growth boosts employment growth rate but empirical evidences do not support these views in all cases. In this paper, the author endeavors to relate growth with unemployment rate during 1991-2016 in India using regression models, Granger Causality test, Johansen Cointegration test and Vector Error Correction model. Impulse response functions were fitted for testing stationary. Unit circle was found out to check stability of the Vector Error Correction. Output gap is measured by deducting Hodrick-Prescott Filtered trend value from the actual output. Unemployment gap is measured by deducting natural growth rate of unemployment from the actual unemployment rate. The data on Indian unemployment rate, growth rate and GDP from 1991 to 2016 have been taken from the World Bank. The paper concludes that growth-unemployment nexus is significantly negative at 10% level. Their relation is not causal but is co-integrated at 10% level. VECM is stable and non-stationary where in one error correction process the speed of adjustment is high and significant. The relation between output gap and unemployment is negative and insignificant. They are not co-integrated and have no causality. The nexus between output gap and unemployment gap is significantly negative but the relation has no causality and co-integration. VAR model is a good fit where variables are related with previous periods. The relation between growth and unemployment gap is insignificantly negative and co-integrated where VECM is stable but non-stationary and one speed of adjustment is significantly fast and other is insignificantly slow in error correction process.

An Empirical Study on Socio-Economic Conditions of Fishermen of North-East Coastal Region of India

<p>Fishing is recognised as a source of food since the Stone Age. A fisherman is the one who is involved in the process of capturing fish and other species from a water body for living and earning purposes, which started with an objective of survival and transformed into a source of business. According to the Food and Agriculture Organisation (FAO) of the United Nations, fish output in India doubled between 1990 and 2010. India acquires 8129 kilometres of marine coastline involving over 1.5 million people who are directly or indirectly related to fishing industry. Being a natural consumable resource it contributes to food security of India, fish is considered as a consumable source and an income source simultaneously. Traditionally, there exist primarily two forms of fishing-Inland Fishing and Marine Fishing. While the former is preferable to the local customers in India due to variety of tastes, on the other hand the Marine Fishing is considered as one of the significant foreign exchange earners as well as suppliers of huge nutritional requirements for this vast population. Nearly 60 per cent of Indian fish productions are coming from coastal fishing. To step up deep-sea fishing activities, in 1977 the Government extended its territorial control over 200 nautical miles in the ocean. This zone was termed as ‘Exclusive Economic Zone’ (EEZ). About 6.3% of global fish production as well as 1.1% of Indian GDP and 5.15% of agricultural GDP is contributed by Indian fishing industry.</p>

AN ANALYSIS OF PUBLIC SPENDING ON EDUCATION IN INDIA:WITH SPECIAL REFERENCE TO ODISHA

Education has significant influence on human development. But unfortunately the annual budget allocation as percent of GDP in India is extremely low as against other developing nations. To get a proper insight, the current paper makes a modest attempt to understand the spending attitude of center and states in general and of Odisha in particular. For this purpose, the study uses union and state budget data from the year 1995 to 2016. Education continues to enjoy an increasing allotment even though at a marginal amount, often only in nominal terms every year. The upcoming budget may focus on spending towards building world class universities and skill based education system to solve the issue of unemployability.

Impact of FDI and Net Trade on GDP of India using Co-integration approach

Impact of FDI and Net Trade on GDP of India using Co-integration approach