GDP Growth Rate Research Articles

Pre-COVID-19‑pandemic differentiation of employment and wages in county hospitals in Poland

The difficult current global situation in the aspect of Human Resources for Health was clearly seen during the COVID-19 pandemic. The spending on healthcare is still increasing and the rate of increase outpaces the growth rate of GDP. Only part of these funds is dedicated to the training of new staff and current healthcare employees migrate in search for better job conditions and worklife balance. Personnel migration combined with the demographic structure in the high-income countries simultaneously leads to increasing demand for healthcare services and limits the supply of specialists who can provide such services. The confrontation between the demand for medical personnel and its supply will lead to a reduction in the quality of care and accessibility of services. In the study based on the large group of Polish county hospitals in 2015–2018, differences and similarities between the hospitals in terms of employment, measured in full-time equivalents (FTEs) and in terms of wages were analyzed. Similarity and dissimilarity analysis was conducted, based on distance measures and cluster analysis. Bigger differences between the hospitals were found for wages than employment levels. The hospitals with an ED and efficient units were less similar to one another than their counterparts in terms of employment (FTEs), except for 2016. When it comes to wages and both types of variables (wages and employment) considered simultaneously, the hospitals with an ED and high number of beds were characterized by lower similarity to one another than their counterparts during the whole period. Clustering all the 3 approaches (FTEs, wages, FTEs and wages) the results were the same. One of these groups was characterized by a rather low employment level per bed, while the other one – by high.

Analysing the Mediating Influence of Share Markets on the Relationship between GDP Growth and Macroeconomic Variables in MENA and Developed Countries

This study examined the relationship between GDP growth and different macroeconomic variables including foreign direct investment, gross fixed capital formation, government expenditure on education, consumption expenditure, GDP per person employed, exchange rate, market capitalization, and inflation in case of MENA and developed countries. Furthermore, it tried exploring the mediating role of the share market in the relationship between economic development and various macroeconomic variables MENA & developed countries. The study has used panel data from the period of 2002-2021. The data has been taken from multiple sources i.e. World Development Indicators (WDI) by The World Bank, International Financial Statistics (IFS), several economic surveys of respective countries and Central Bank’s publications. The study reveals mixed order of integration among variables. Consumption expenditure is stationary in both panels, while expenditure on education is non-stationary. Real effective exchange rate is stationary under both panels, while GDP per employed persons is non-stationary. GDP growth rate, inflation, and market capitalization are stationary for both developed and Mena countries. However, gross fixed capital formation is stationary at first difference. The correlation matrix results show a weak correlation between consumption expenditure and educational expenditure, with a 9 percent negative correlation. For Mena countries, the study found a negative association between consumption expenditure and educational expenditure, with a 23% correlation. Real effective exchange rate is negatively associated with foreign direct investment, GDP per employed person, gross fixed capital formation, inflation, and market capitalization. For developed countries, the coefficient of FDI increases GDP growth rate by 97%, while gross fixed capital formation decreases GDP growth rate by 10.2 units due to 1 unit increase in gross fixed capital formation. Consumption expenditures increase GDP growth rate by 2% due to 1 unit increase, while inflation increases it by 5.9 units. Exchange rate is also positively related with GDP growth rate, with a 1% increase in exchange rate boosting it by 29%. The study found partial mediation of market capitalization in developed countries and uni-directional causality in Mena countries. Keywords: Market Capitalization, Mediation Analysis, Mena Countries, Economic Growth, Panel Data Analysis

Association of human capital development and women's employment in China, 1990-2020: An empirical assessment.

This study was designed to assess the connection between human capital development and the employment of women in China from 1990 to 2020. Data was collected from the World Development Indicators, after which it was subjected to Dynamic Ordinary Least Squares and Granger causality econometric analysis. The results from the study showed that human capital development and women employment had a negative but insignificant relationship. Similarly, a unidirectional relationship existed between female employment and government capital expenditure in China, while a bidirectional association ran between women employment and government expenditure on education in the country. Therefore, it is concluded that human capital development and government expenditure on education are the strong motivating factors that drive GDP growth rate and women employment in China. Consequently, we recommend that policymakers in China should consider massive investment in human capital development in order to enhance women employment in the country. Additionally, policymakers should embark on policies and programmes that foster the expansion of China`s GDP growth rate as a measure to increase employment opportunities for women.

IMPACT OF INNOVATION ON ECONOMIC GROWTH IN BALKAN COUNTRIES

Innovation plays a crucial role in the daily activities of economic units and its impact extends to the macroeconomic level as well. After the last pandemic, firms and even nations are aiming to adopt the new reality. They are employing advanced technology to develop innovative products and approaches for customers and markets. This study analyzes the impact of innovation on economic growth in Balkan Countries by using annual data for the period between 2011 and 2022. This study uses the individual pillars of the Global Innovation Index as the explanatory variables of GDP Growth rate. Through a panel data analysis, the findings of the study suggest that creative output and infrastructure have a positive significant effect on the GDP growth rate, while the effect of institutions is negative. The test employed failed to prove any impact of other pillars of innovation on economic growth meaning that the impact of other pillars is still insignificant. The findings of this study may serve policymakers to work on the direction of enhancing the impact of all innovation pillars on the economic growth rate.

The Role of Government Spending and Public Debt in Shaping Pakistan's Economic Growth: A Statistical Analysis

Pakistan has yet to gather enough funds to cover its budget. As a result, twin deficits emerged, forcing the government to rely on domestic and international debt to fund development projects. Current study investigates the link between government debt, expenditure and economic advancement in Pakistan. Several sources, including the World Bank database, International Financial Statistics, Pakistan Economic Survey, and others, offered statistics on public debt, government expenditure, inflation, GDP growth rate, and interest rates for 41 years from 1980 to 2020. Autoregressive distributed lag model was used for econometric research. Study used unit root (ADF and PP) tests to confirm the data's stationarity. Findings of the study revealed that public debt and interest rates had a substantial negative link with economic growth. However, expenditure on both development and non-development and inflation had a significant positive correlation with GDP growth. The findings show that all of the identified variables substantially influence government spending. Pakistan's economic development is driven mainly by governmental spending, interest rates and debt. The study recommends that to secure long-term economic growth, the government should responsibly manage debt stocks.

SMEs as catalysts for economic development: Navigating challenges and seizing opportunities in emerging markets

Small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) play a critical role in the economic development of emerging markets, acting as catalysts for innovation, job creation, and poverty reduction. They are often the backbone of these economies, driving growth through their adaptability and entrepreneurial spirit. However, SMEs also face significant challenges that must be navigated to fully capitalize on their potential. One of the primary challenges SMEs encounter in emerging markets is limited access to finance. Traditional banks often view SMEs as high-risk investments due to their smaller size and lack of collateral. This financing gap can stifle their growth and innovation capabilities. To address this, microfinance institutions and digital lending platforms have emerged as crucial alternatives, providing SMEs with much-needed capital. According to the International Finance Corporation (IFC), improving access to finance for SMEs could increase GDP growth rates significantly in emerging economies. Another critical challenge is the lack of infrastructure, which can impede business operations and logistics. In many emerging markets, inadequate transportation networks, unreliable power supply, and limited internet connectivity hinder SME productivity and market reach. Governments and international organizations are increasingly investing in infrastructure development to create a more conducive environment for SMEs. The World Bank, for instance, has various programs aimed at enhancing infrastructure in emerging markets, thereby facilitating better business operations for SMEs. In terms of opportunities, the digital revolution offers vast potential for SMEs. Digital tools and platforms enable SMEs to reach broader markets, streamline operations, and improve customer engagement. E-commerce, in particular, allows SMEs to overcome geographical limitations and tap into global markets. Additionally, leveraging social media for marketing can significantly enhance brand visibility and customer acquisition. Furthermore, emerging markets often present a youthful and growing consumer base, eager for new products and services. SMEs can seize this opportunity by tailoring their offerings to meet local preferences and demands. This consumer-centric approach can lead to increased loyalty and market share. In conclusion, while SMEs in emerging markets face considerable challenges, the opportunities for growth and impact are immense. By improving access to finance, investing in infrastructure, and embracing digital tools, SMEs can drive substantial economic development. Policymakers, financial institutions, and international organizations must continue to support these enterprises to unlock their full potential and foster sustainable economic growth.

PATHWAYS TO PROSPERITY AND SUSTAINABILITY: ASSESSING THE EFFECTS OF TRANSPORT INFRASTRUCTURE INVESTMENTS ON ECONOMIC GROWTH AND GHG EMISSIONS IN AZERBAIJAN IN THE CONTEXT OF COP 29

Ahead of Azerbaijan's hosting of COP 29, this paper examines the impacts of transport infrastructure investments in Azerbaijan on economic growth and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. In this study, using the data of the official reports of the Statistical Committee of the Republic of Azerbaijan and the World Bank, the Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) regression analysis tool was used to reveal the potential impact of investments in transportation infrastructure. The main essence of this study is to examine the strategic investment projects aimed at modernizing the transportation networks of Azerbaijan and its ambitious effects. The nation's vision is not limited to infrastructural development, but also strives to achieve sustainable progress by establishing itself as a global leader in promoting environmentally conscious activities. Through political certainty and international cooperation, Azerbaijan is trying to show itself as a leader in promoting sustainable development in the context of 29th Conference of the Parties (COP 29). The research aims to examine how the planned development of transport infrastructure drives economic progress with a focus on climate impacts. This article revealed the significant role of investments in transport infrastructure in fostering economic growth in Azerbaijan, particularly through positive effects on the non-oil GDP growth rate. However, it found that these investments did not lead to substantial reductions in GHG emissions, indicating a lack of corresponding environmental benefits. This underscores the complex interplay between infrastructure development and environmental sustainability, highlighting the necessity for a balanced approach in policy implementation.

TAX BURDEN: APPROACHES TO DETERMINATION AND THEIR INFORMATION SUPPORT

Analysis of tax burden is importantfor assessing the effectiveness of tax policy of the state, tax management of enterprises, is an indicator of the level of tax security of all economic entities and the indicator by which tax authorities carry out tax control of taxpayers. Tax burden scientists consider on the macro-(level of tax burden on the economy in general) and micro-level (the level of the load on the enterprise). At the macro level, it is advisable to determine the level of the total tax burden as the ratio of the amount of tax revenues to the consolidated budget of Ukraine and the revenues of the single social contribution to GDP, as well as the share of tax payments of the integrated budget in GDP, the proportion of social payments in GDP and the rate of growth of these indicators. Analysis of the level of tax burden in Ukraine showed that in 2022 in the conditions of Russia’s full-scale war, GDP at market prices decreased by 4.92%, and the amount of tax payments of the reduced budget increased by 9.89%. In 2020, due to the introduction of quarantine in order to prevent the spread of acute respiratory disease COVID-19 in Ukraine, the GDP growth rate was low (5,53%), and the rate of growth of tax payments was high (15,71%). At the enterprise level, the analysis can be carried out according to the indicators of the total tax burden, tax burdens on income, expenditure, on cash flows, as well as tax on all taxes paid and SSC separately. The source of information for determining the indicators is the Financial Results Report (the aggregate income report and the Cash Flow Report (by direct method). In the system of electronic administration of taxes and duties by the tax authorities, monitoring of indicators-criteria of high-risk tax burden is carried out, according to which the payers canbe included in the plan-chart of checks: the level of payment of income tax and VAT. If the indicators are below 50 and more percent of the level of payment of the relevant tax for the industry, the enterprise falls into the plan-chart of inspections. Theinformation source for determining the level of payment of taxes is the Income Tax Declaration and the VAT tax declaration. Indicators of the level of tax payments by industries are published on the website of the State Tax Service of Ukraine. Also, the tax service determines indicators-indicators of unconditional registration of taxpayers, among which is the indicator of tax burden D, which is automatically formed in the Monitoring System of risk assessment criteria (MSRAC) of the Electronic Cabinet of Taxpayers or can be calculated from the data of the turnover and balance of enterprises. Monitoring of indicators of tax burden on the part of tax authorities is of paramount importance for monitoring compliance of taxpayers with tax legislation and implementation of the tax policy of the state to fill the budget with tax revenues.In the tax management of enterprises, the analysis of tax burden indicators is intended to find out the degree of their compliance with the established limits, industry indicators in order to take timely optimization decisions and avoid checks, penalties and the need to pass the procedure of unlocking tax charges.

Study of Factors Influencing U.S. Treasury Yields Based on Time Series Linear Regression Models

Studying the impact of changes in the savings rate on fluctuations in US Treasuries is significant. This paper conducts a linear regression analysis of the yield of US Treasuries, inflation rate, GDP growth rate, and US savings rate over the past decade, aiming to explore their relationships and influences. Based on economic data from the United States, a model is constructed, which is further applied to data from the European Union to validate its applicability and accuracy across different economic systems and to investigate the impact of disparities in data between different regions on the results. After analyzing the data and obtaining results, various types of economic data from the European Union are used as model variables for testing. Following a correlation analysis of the data, the conclusion is drawn that even different regions or countries exhibit varying positive or negative correlations between their economic data and US Treasury yield fluctuations. This paper delves into the analysis and comparison of the interaction between US Treasury yields and economic indicators of both the United States and the European Union, exploring whether these interactions manifest differently in the two distinct economic systems.

Mayors’ promotion incentives and subnational-level GDP manipulation

What role do local officials’ incentives play in regional economic growth? How do local officials behave under promotion pressure? This paper studies the unintended impact of mayors’ promotion incentives on regional economic growth and subnational-level GDP manipulation in China. We employ a regression discontinuity design that accounts for age restrictions in deciding promotions for mayors. We find that when GDP performance is prioritized in officials’ promotion evaluations (before 2013), mayors’ promotion incentives significantly increase the statistical GDP growth rate by 3.4 percentage points. However, their effects on nighttime light and other non-manipulable real economic growth indicators are close to zero. This gap can be attributed to GDP manipulation under our empirical framework. The above pattern no longer persists after 2013, when the role of GDP statistics in mayoral promotions was reduced. Our findings indicate that GDP manipulation makes performance-based competition between mayors devolve into a data manipulation game.

Economic voting behavior: The peak‐end growth rule

AbstractThis paper introduces the peak‐end rule to economic voting, finding that voters focus on peak and end economic growth when evaluating incumbents. Cross‐national data from 595 elections in 70 countries (1960–2020) shows that the average of the highest GDP growth rate during the term and the growth rate in the election year positively impacts incumbent vote share, with peak growth having a stronger effect. Instrumental variable analysis addresses endogeneity. Heterogeneity analysis reveals that less‐educated voters rely more on the peak‐end rule. The findings contribute to understanding voters' behavioral patterns and improving democratic accountability.

The Effect of E-Commerce on Gross Regional Domestic Product and Clustering of Its Characteristics by Utilizing Official Statistics and Big Data

The objective of this study is to examine the impact of e-commerce on Gross Regional Domestic Product (GRDP) and categorize GRDP according to e-commerce features in 17 provinces throughout Java, Sumatra, and Bali. The Human Development Index (HDI), which measures people's proficiency with technology—among which is e-commerce—is greatest on these three islands. This study makes use of big data in the form of Google Trends data as well as official statistics data obtained from the BPS-Statistics Indonesia. K-means clustering and regression analysis are the research methods employed. The study's findings demonstrate that the three islands' GDP growth rates are considerably accelerated by e-commerce companies. There were two ideal clusters identified: the low and high GRDP clusters. All of the provinces on the island of Java are included in the high cluster, with the exception of Central Java, which is distinguished by high transaction values and e-commerce-related keyword searches. Provinces in the low cluster are located on the Indonesian islands of Sumatra and Bali, and they are distinguished by the usage of Cash on Delivery (COD) and a limited number of employees in e-commerce businesses.

The Impact of High-Speed Rail Opening on Urban Economy Empirical Evidence from China

The business scale of China's high-speed railroad is increasing, which has brought important impact on the economy of the cities passing along the high-speed railroad. High-speed railroad has faster speed, safer, and stronger ability to transport goods compared with train, which provides a better choice for people's transportation, tourism, etc., and also has a great impact on the economic development of the cities along the route. This paper is based on the Wuhan-Guangzhou high-speed railway along Hunan Province.To ensure accurate empirical results, we specifically choose Hunan Province as the basis for data analysis, as it is the only province in the area and eliminates potential interference from other municipalities. We collect data from 2005 to 2019, specifically from prefectural-level cities and above. The empirical analysis is conducted using the double difference model (DID). An analysis is conducted on the effects of high-speed railroads on the growth rate of GDP, per capita GDP, the total employment at the end of the year, and the urban development along the lines. The findings indicate that high-speed rail has a discernible bias in its economic impact on cities along its route. Specifically, it has a substantial influence on the employment and urbanisation development of these cities. However, it does not have a significant effect on the short-term per capita GDP and its growth rate.

Factor productivity nexus economic growth in Sub-Saharan Africa: Symmetric and asymmetric panel approaches

This study examines the effect and role of total factor productivity with other major determinants on economic growth in the Sub – Saharan Africa(SSA).It employs the data obtained from the World Bank Development Indicators spanning from 1990 to 2022 using panel ARDL, GMM and their extended asymmetric non-linear (NARDL) and (NGMM) models. The NARDL and NGMM are more superior to the counterpart ARDL and GMM symmetric models in the long-run than the short-run estimation, ensuring more efficient and reliable information regarding the effects of productivity on economic growth analysis. Finally, the robust dynamic inter-temporal Granger causality tests show that asymmetrically there is bi-directional causality between the growth rate of an upward movement in total factor productivity and real GDP. There is also bi-directional causality of a downward movement in the growth rate of the terms of trade and real GDP growth rate. The empirical findings of the study are extremely important indicators for sustained economic growth in the SSA region. Hence, this research work recommends that governments should enhance total factor productivity and terms of trade through job-trainning provision and promote trading among themselves as policy tools.

Do the Risk-averse Firms Confirm Enhanced Firm Value? Exploring the Managerial Ownership’s Moderating Effect

The study aims to investigate the influence of corporate risk and the moderating effect of managerial ownership on the firm value of the Dhaka Stock Exchange listed manufacturing industries in Bangladesh. The study collected data from 144 manufacturing companies under ten industry categories from 2012–2021, where the total number of firm-year observations was 1,310. The study considers operational and liquidity risks to measure corporate risk. The study uses a two-stage-least square (2SLS) model estimation technique to run the multivariate analysis. The study found that firms’ operational risks, liquidity risks, and multiple effects of firms’ risk and managerial ownership significantly influence the firms’ value. It is also evidenced that firms’ size, age, shareholders’ influence, and GDP growth rate have a noteworthy positive influence on firm value. In contrast, no significant effect of the inflation rate on firm value was identified. The practical implications of the current study demonstrated that corporate risk management enhances firm value and must be invigorated for the interest of all stakeholders. Interestingly, there needs to be more research on identifying the impact of corporate risks on firm value from the perspective of manufacturing industries in Bangladesh. The current study is designed to reduce the research gap and enhance the literature. The research has several financial, legal, and social implications for policymakers, practitioners, and other stakeholders.

Trend of Foreign Direct Investment in Tanzania's Real Estate Industry From 2000 - 2020: A Systematic Review

Foreign direct investment (FDI) has become an area of concern to many developing nations due to the economic benefits it presents to the host nation. Despite the notable growth and potential of the Tanzanian real estate market, there is lack of comprehensive, empirical studies that analyze the specific patterns of FDI inflows in the real estate industry in Tanzania over an extended period and their contributions to national GDP and other economic indicators. This systematic review aims to examine the trend of foreign direct investment (FDI) in Tanzania’s real estate industry from 2000 – 2020. Further, this review helps to determine the contribution of FDI to growth of GDP and other economic indicators in the country. Result shows that there was an irregular trend of FDI inflows in Tanzania’s real estate activities with various asymmetrical decrease and increase throughout the period from 2000 – 2020. However, the FDI inflows in real estate activities is not significantly associated with national GDP, national GDP growth rate, total FDI inflows in the country or contribution of the real estate activities in national GDP. There was a higher growth rate (between 4.2% - 7.5%) of real estate activities from 2000 – 2010, but was followed by a sharp decline to less than 2% in 2011 and then a steady growth rate of above 4% from 2015 – 2020. The percentage shares of GDP by real estate activities was relatively higher and steady from 2000 – 2010, followed by sharp decline from 2010 – 2011 and further decrease towards 2020. Further analysis indicated that there was a general increase in contribution of real estate activities in national GDP from 2000 – 2020. It is concluded that, FDI inflows in Tanzania’s real estate activities show an irregular trend with various asymmetrical decrease and increase throughout the period. The annual growth rate (%) of real estate activities in national GDP displays an irregular trend from 2000 – 2020. Further, there is a general increase in contribution of real estate activities in national GDP during the review period.

Análisis de los principales indicadores socioeconómicos del sector agropecuario ecuatoriano (2000-2022)

The agricultural sector in Ecuador, a key player in the country’s economic system, is currently facing important challenges that threaten the sustainability of production. Consequently, the objective of this research was to analyze the main socioeconomic indicators of the Equatorian agricultural sector during the 2000-2022 period. Using a descriptive methodology with quantitative and analytical-synthetic methods, information was sourced from BCE and INEC. Results show that agricultural activities contribute 7.92% to Ecuador’s GDP, generate 35% of foreign exchange earnings, and yield 94.84% of the food consumed by the population. However, agricultural production is concentrated on a few primary goods. In addition, the agricultural frontier has been reduced in recent years, there is evidence of a process of disinvestment by the State in the agricultural sector, and the agricultural GDP growth rate shows a downward trend. Therefore, current administrations in Ecuador have not attempted to change to a model that would honor the efforts of the rural population.

The effect of institutional quality on tourism in designated European Union mediterranean states

This research delves into the correlation between institutional quality and tourism development in a panel of nine Mediterranean countries within the European Union spanning from 1996 to 2021. The study gauges tourism development by examining tourist arrivals, while considering GDP growth rate, inflation, higher education, environmental quality, and trade as control variables representing factors influencing tourism. Institutional quality is measured through indicators such as regulatory quality, rule of law, and control of corruption. Utilizing Fully Modified Ordinary Least Square (FMOLS) and Dynamic Ordinary Least Squares (DOLS) models, the study aims to quantify the impact of these factors on tourism development. The findings indicate a positive relationship between institutional quality and tourism, shedding light on the pivotal role of institutions in tourism management and their influence on the sector. These results have implications for shaping national development strategies.

„In Vielfalt vereint“ – Die wirtschaftliche Lage in den Beitrittsländern nach 20 Jahren in der EU

Abstract Twenty years have passed since the largest enlargement of the European Union in history. During the eastern enlargement, 10 new member states entered the union, seven of which belonged to the former Eastern bloc. The new members have since experienced astonishing growth rates, closing the large gap between them and the rest of the EU. The GDP growth rates were consistently higher than those of the original members. Now, the EU must once again look east: the integration of the West Balkan countries would be a crucial step in the future development of the EU, not only economically, but also politically, provided the formal provisions of an accession are satisfied. A strong united Europe benefits all.

Convergence in Financial Development and Growth

We evaluate the cross-country convergence of financial development and its relationship with GDP growth. Financial inclusion variables have been widely converged across countries, and the catch-up effect of countries with poor financial coverage mainly drives the convergence. In contrast, financial development measures — including domestic credit, liability, mutual fund size, and stock market capitalization — have diverged since 1985 despite the absolute convergence in GDP and financial inclusion. The GDP growth rates strongly correlate with the change in financial development but not the improvement in financial inclusion.