GCM Results Research Articles

Predicting Groundwater Level Using Climate Change Scenarios in the Southern Part of Mali

Groundwater is mainly demanded in all the activities for the population of the southern part especially in the Koda catchment, the studied area. These resources are affected by various factors especially climate change. Therefore, knowing the impact of projected climate change on groundwater recharge is an important issue for water resources management, especially for those responsible for the Koda catchment. In this work, the impact of climate change on groundwater resources in the study area in Mali, West Africa is investigated. The Hydrogeological modeling was performed using the Gardenia model, and the monthly precipitation and temperature data were used as the Baseline. These data considered the past 30-year period (1987-2016) and the projections for the next 30 years (2021-2050). Projected precipitation and air temperatures, extracted from the Rossby Centre regional Atmospheric climate model (RCA 4) statistically downscaled from the GCM-IHEC-EC-EARTH and the GCM-MPI-M-MPI-ESM-LR under the Representative Concentration Pathways RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 and corrected with the Multiscale Quantile Mapping bias correction method, were used as input data to the gardenia model. Potential evapotranspiration (PET) values estimated from Blaney Criddle method and groundwater levels measured in three piezometers were used to calibrate the Gardenia model. The outputs display the reduction of groundwater level in the three piezometers in the Koda catchment for all the two Regional Climate Models (RCMs) during the periods of rainy season from July to October. From the results of GCM IHEC-EC-EARTH, the projected decline in GWL reaches 1.09 m for the RCP 4.5 and it up to 1.26 m for the RCP 8.5 in the study area while the GCM MPI-M-MPI-ESM-LR presentes the decline in groundwater level (GWL) during winter season from about 0.62 m for the RCP 4.5 up to 1.93 m for the RCP 8:5. Both RCMs project a reduction trend of groundwater recharge over time. It is noticeable that this decline is greater in RCP8.5 for all the three piezometers. The results also show that the average groundwater recharge (90 mm) in the future (2021-2050) is lower (180 mm) than that of the current drought (1987-2016), which could lead to severe drought events. The projected impacts of climate change would have a significant impact on groundwater in the period of 2029-2039; this situation could have a negative impact the socioeconomic activities especially on agriculture, which depends on water resources. The results will help also to take some adaptation measures to climate change, the famers could have a possibility to know the period of groundwater recharge where they have more water infiltration therefore, where to seek crops that need less or more water. The study area presents numerous potential of groundwater, the results could be a tool for groundwater management and to determine the favorable sites to implant new boreholes.

Local time and longitudinal variation of the ionospheric radial current: swarm observations and TIE–GCM simulations

Based on the high-precision vector magnetic field data of Swarm A and C satellites, we perform a statistical analysis of the diurnal and longitudinal variations of the ionospheric radial current (IRC) in the F layer at the magnetic equator from 2014 to 2018. The observations are compared with the simulations based on the Thermosphere–Ionosphere Electrodynamics–General Circulation Model (TIE–GCM). It is found that the noon IRC is radially outward, whereas the dusk IRC is radially inward. The time of the change from the inward to the outward direction occurred is earlier in June than in other seasons. The TIE–GCM results show that low atmospheric tides have an important effect on the seasonal change in the reverse time. The noon IRC is weakened primarily by the polarization current from migrating tides. The dusk IRC is mainly weakened by polarization current from nonmigrating tides in the equinox and December solstice and by dynamo current from migrating tides in the June solstice. Geomagnetic field configuration is the main reason for the longitudinal variation of IRC. The noon IRC have a wave-4 zonal structure, which is mainly caused by the outward propagation of migrating and nonmigrating tides. The dusk IRC in the western hemisphere shows a larger current density than that in the eastern hemisphere, resulting mainly from the neutral wind dynamo current. The competing effect of the wind dynamo current and polarization current determined the peak location of the total current in the western hemisphere.Graphical

Bistability of the Atmospheric Circulation on TRAPPIST-1e

Using a 3D general circulation model, we demonstrate that a confirmed rocky exoplanet and a primary observational target, TRAPPIST-1e presents an interesting case of climate bistability. We find that the atmospheric circulation on TRAPPIST-1e can exist in two distinct regimes for a 1 bar nitrogen-dominated atmosphere. One is characterized by a single strong equatorial prograde jet and a large day–night temperature difference; the other is characterized by a pair of mid-latitude prograde jets and a relatively small day–night contrast. The circulation regime appears to be highly sensitive to the model setup, including initial and surface boundary conditions, as well as physical parameterizations of convection and cloud radiative effects. We focus on the emergence of the atmospheric circulation during the early stages of simulations and show that the regime bistability is associated with a delicate balance between the zonally asymmetric heating, mean overturning circulation, and mid-latitude baroclinic instability. The relative strength of these processes places the GCM simulations on different branches of the evolution of atmospheric dynamics. The resulting steady states of the two regimes have consistent differences in the amount of water content and clouds, affecting the water absorption bands as well as the continuum level in the transmission spectrum, although they are too small to be detected with current technology. Nevertheless, this regime bistability affects the surface temperature, especially on the night side of the planet, and presents an interesting case for understanding atmospheric dynamics and highlights uncertainty in 3D GCM results, motivating more multimodel studies.

Interannual, Seasonal and Regional Variations in the Martian Convective Boundary Layer Derived From GCM Simulations With a Semi‐Interactive Dust Transport Model

AbstractWe present interannual, seasonal, and regional variations in the daytime Martian convective boundary layer (CBL). Martian CBL meteorology is driven both by the effect of diurnal and seasonal cycles as well as complex Martian topography. One of the most important components of the Martian atmosphere is its dust cycle. Here, we develop a novel semi‐interactive dust transport model within the MarsWRF framework, in which the dust is lifted, advected by model winds, mixed, and allowed to sediment, but is then scaled to match two‐dimensional maps of the observed daily column‐integrated dust opacity. This allows the vertical dust distribution and associated dust radiative heating to be controlled by model processes, while the horizontal dust distribution is constrained to follow observations. We report the impact of the dust cycle on Martian boundary layer meteorology. Enhanced dust transport lowers the global net surface heating rates, decreasing the turbulent mixing in CBL to virtually zero (within the dust storm season) and, enhances the wind shear on average by almost 50%. As a superposition of both impacts, during global dust storms (GDS) in Mars Year (MY) 25 and 34, we find that long‐lasting extremely shallow daytime boundary layers can globally form as shallow as 0.5 km (but not for the less intense GDS in MY 28), unlike the 9 km deep and highly turbulent CBL formation at GDS onset and decay. Based on our GCM results, strong CBL suppression lasts as long as approximately 67 and 57 sols during GDS events in MY 25 and 34.

Bias patterns and climate change signals in GCM-RCM model chains

The assessment of regional climate change and the associated planning of adaptation and response strategies are often based on complex model chains. Typically these employ global and regional climate models (GCMs and RCMs), as well as one or several impact models. It is a common belief that the errors in such model chains behave approximately additive, thus the uncertainty should increase with each modeling step. If this hypothesis was true, the application of RCMs would not lead to any intrinsic improvement (beyond higher-resolution details) of the GCM results. Here, we investigate the bias patterns (offset during the historical period against observations) and climate change signals of two RCMs that have downscaled a comprehensive set of GCMs following the EURO-CORDEX framework. Our results show that the biases of the RCMs and GCMs are not additive and not independent. The two RCMs are systematically reducing the biases and modifying climate change signals of the driving GCMs, even on scales that are considered well resolved by the driving GCMs. The GCM projected summer warming at the end of the century is substantially reduced by both RCMs. These results are important, as the projected summer warming and its likely impact on the water cycle are among the most serious concerns regarding European climate change.

Projection of China’s near- and long-term climate in a new high-resolution daily downscaled dataset NEX-GDDP

The projection of China’s near- and long-term future climate is revisited with a new-generation statistically downscaled dataset, NEX-GDDP (NASA Earth Exchange Global Daily Downscaled Projections). This dataset presents a high-resolution seamless climate projection from 1950 to 2100 by combining observations and GCM results, and remarkably improves CMIP5 hindcasts and projections from large scale to regional-to-local scales with an unchanged long-term trend. Three aspects are significantly improved: (1) the climatology in the past as compared against the observations; (2) more reliable near- and long-term projections, with a modified range of absolute value and reduced inter-model spread as compared to CMIP5 GCMs; and (3) much added value at regional-to-local scales compared to GCM outputs. NEX-GDDP has great potential to become a widely-used high-resolution dataset and a benchmark of modern climate change for diverse earth science communities.

기후예측 시나리오 기반의 단기가뭄피해 예측기법: 금강유역을 대상으로

There has been a very serious drought since June 2015 in Korea. This study seeks to quantify the ongoing water deficit in the first half of 2016 in the Geum river basin, which has been the most effected by severe drought in Korea. Weather time series were generated from the climate forecast results of the GFDL GCM that is a part of IRI Monthly Multi-model ensemble (MME) seasonal prediction system. Natural discharge was estimated in 14 subbasins using a rainfall-runoff model. A water balance model was built and used to predict the amount of water deficit in the first half of 2016 given the initial conditions in December 2015. Under the scenario predicted by the GCM, more precipitation than nornal is expected and consequently, water supplies in the basin will be sufficient to meet water demands. However, if only 75% or 50% of expected precipitation occurs, water supply will be inadequate to meet the water demands in spite of considering the regional supply water.

A High-Resolution Modeling Strategy to Assess Impacts of Climate Change for Mesoamerica and the Caribbean

Mesoamerica and the Caribbean are low-latitude regions at risk for the effects of climate change. Global climate models provide large-scale assessment of climate drivers, but, at a horizontal resolution of 100 km, cannot resolve the effects of topography and land use as they impact the local temperature and precipitation that are keys to climate impacts. We developed a robust dynamical downscaling strategy that used the WRF regional climate model to downscale at 4 - 12 km resolution GCM results. Model verification demonstrates the need for such resolution of topography in order to properly simulate temperatures. Precipitation is more difficult to evaluate, being highly variable in time and space. Overall, a 36 km resolution is inadequate; 12 km appears reasonable, especially in regions of low topography, but the 4 km resolution provides the best match with observations. This represents a tradeoff between model resolution and the computational effort needed to make simulations. A key goal is to provide climate change specialists in each country with the information they need to evaluate possible future climate change impacts.

The application of flux-form semi-Lagrangian transport scheme in a spectral atmosphere model

A flux-form semi-Lagrangian transport scheme (FFSL) was implemented in a spectral atmospheric GCM developed and used at IAP/LASG. Idealized numerical experiments show that the scheme is good at shape preserving with less dissipation and dispersion, in comparison with other conventional schemes. Importantly, FFSL can automatically maintain the positive definition of the transported tracers, which was an underlying problem in the previous spectral composite method (SCM). To comprehensively investigate the impact of FFSL on GCM results, we conducted sensitive experiments. Three main improvements resulted: first, rainfall simulation in both distribution and intensity was notably improved, which led to an improvement in precipitation frequency. Second, the dry bias in the lower troposphere was significantly reduced compared with SCM simulations. Third, according to the Taylor diagram, the FFSL scheme yields simulations that are superior to those using the SCM: a higher correlation between model output and observation data was achieved with the FFSL scheme, especially for humidity in lower troposphere. However, the moist bias in the middle and upper troposphere was more pronounced with the FFSL scheme. This bias led to an over-simulation of precipitable water in comparison with reanalysis data. Possible explanations, as well as solutions, are discussed herein.

Observational evidences of Walker circulation change over the last 30 years contrasting with GCM results

In order to examine the changes in Walker circulation over the recent decades, we analyzed the sea surface temperature (SST), deep convective activities, upper tropospheric moistening, sea level pressure (SLP), and effective wind in the boundary layer over the 30-year period of 1979–2008. The analysis showed that the eastern tropical Pacific has undergone cooling while the western Pacific has undergone warming over the past three decades, causing an increase in the east–west SST gradient. It is indicated that the tropical atmosphere should have responded to these SST changes; increased deep convective activities and associated upper tropospheric moistening over the western Pacific ascending region, increased SLP over the eastern Pacific descending region in contrast to decreased SLP over the western Pacific ascending region, and enhanced easterly wind in the boundary layer in response to the SLP change. These variations, recognized from different data sets, occur in tandem with each other, strongly supporting the intensified Walker circulation over the tropical Pacific Ocean. Since the SST trend was attributed to more frequent occurrences of central Pacific-type El Nino in recent decades, it is suggested that the decadal variation of El Nino caused the intensified Walker circulation over the past 30 years. An analysis of current climate models shows that model results deviate greatly from the observed intensified Walker circulation. The uncertainties in the current climate models may be due to the natural variability dominating the forced signal over the tropical Pacific during the last three decades in the twentieth century climate scenario runs by CMIP3 CGCMs.

Modeling the hydrological cycle on Mars

The study provides a detailed analysis of the hydrological cycle on Mars simulated with a newly developed microphysical model, incorporated in a spectral Mars General Circulation Model. The modeled hydrological cycle is compared well with simulations of other global climate models. The simulated seasonal migration of water vapor, circulation instability, and the high degree of temporal variability of localized water vapor outbursts are shown closely consistent with recent observations. The microphysical parameterization provides a significant improvement in the modeling of ice clouds evolved over the tropics and major ancient volcanoes on Mars. The most significant difference between the simulations presented here and other GCM results is the level at which the water ice clouds are found. The model findings also support interpretation of observed thermal anomalies in the Martian tropics during northern spring and summer seasons.

Erratum to Influences of Venus’ topography on fully developed superrotation and near-surface flow

We investigate the influence of topography on Venus’ atmospheric general circulation. Based on comparative simulations with and without the Venusian topography, we elucidate the role of the topography in the fully developed superrotation. Orographically forced stationary waves are predominant over Mt. Maxwell: slightly weakening the superrotation near the cloud top. Differently from previous GCM results, the orographically forced waves do not produce significant asymmetry between the northern and southern hemispheric superrotations in the present model. Weak surface flows from mountains to lowlands are caused by the pressure dependence of the Newtonian cooling. The pattern and magnitude of the near-surface flow are largely different from those simulated in the Herrnstein and Dowling (2007) model. This implies that the parameterizations of physical processes (such as Newtonian cooling, turbulence, diffusion, and surface drag) and the model resolution could significantly influence the pattern and magnitude of the near-surface flow and the orographical forcing of planetary-scale stationary waves.

Polar amplification in the mid-Holocene derived from dynamical vegetation change with a GCM

[1] AOGCM simulations of the mid-Holocene tend to largely underestimate annual mean temperature over land in northern hemisphere compared to that of paleodata reconstruction. While the vegetation feedback has not been yet quantitatively reported, its neglect is suggested to be one of the cause of this underestimation. Here, we perform several experiments using an atmosphere-ocean-vegetation coupled model and quantify a vegetation-induced feedback in the mid-Holocene climate using MIROC GCM. Our result indicates an annual warming of +1.3K over land north of 40°N in the mid-Holocene, much larger than the previous GCM results. This warming is due to direct amplification of warming over high latitude land through increases in vegetation and reduced albedo during the summer and indirect amplification through sea-ice feedback in autumn and winter and snow albedo feedback in spring. These feedback were not properly represented in previous GCM analysis.

Climate impact on airborne particulate matter concentrations in California using seven year analysis periods

Abstract. The effect of global climate change on the annual average concentration of fine particulate matter (PM2.5) in California was studied using a climate-air quality modeling system composed of global through regional models. Output from the NCAR/DOE Parallel Climate Model (PCM) generated under the "business as usual" global emissions scenario was downscaled using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model followed by air quality simulations using the UCD/CIT airshed model. The system represents major atmospheric processes acting on gas and particle phase species including meteorological effects on emissions, advection, dispersion, chemical reaction rates, gas-particle conversion, and dry/wet deposition. The air quality simulations were carried out for the entire state of California with a resolution of 8-km for the years 2000–2006 (present climate with present emissions) and 2047–2053 (future climate with present emissions). Each of these 7-year analysis periods was analyzed using a total of 1008 simulated days to span a climatologically relevant time period with a practical computational burden. The 7-year windows were chosen to properly account for annual variability with the added benefit that the air quality predictions under the present climate could be compared to actual measurements. The climate-air quality modeling system successfully predicted the spatial pattern of present climate PM2.5 concentrations in California but the absolute magnitude of the annual average PM2.5 concentrations were under-predicted by ~4–39% in the major air basins. The majority of this under-prediction was caused by excess ventilation predicted by PCM-WRF that should be present to the same degree in the current and future time periods so that the net bias introduced into the comparison is minimized. Surface temperature, relative humidity (RH), rain rate, and wind speed were predicted to increase in the future climate while the ultra violet (UV) radiation was predicted to decrease in major urban areas in the San Joaquin Valley (SJV) and South Coast Air Basin (SoCAB). These changes lead to a predicted decrease in PM2.5 mass concentrations of ~0.3–0.7 μg m−3 in the southern portion of the SJV and ~0.3–1.1 μg m−3 along coastal regions of California including the heavily populated San Francisco Bay Area and the SoCAB surrounding Los Angeles. Annual average PM2.5 concentrations were predicted to increase at certain locations within the SJV and the Sacramento Valley (SV) due to the effects of climate change, but a corresponding analysis of the annual variability showed that these predictions are not statistically significant (i.e. the choice of a different 7-year period could produce a different outcome for these regions). Overall, virtually no region in California outside of coastal + central Los Angeles, and a small region around the port of Oakland in the San Francisco Bay Area experienced a statistically significant change in annual average PM2.5 concentrations due to the effects of climate change in the present~study. The present study employs the highest spatial resolution (8 km) and the longest analysis windows (7 years) of any climate-air quality analysis conducted for California to date, but the results still have some degree of uncertainty. Most significantly, GCM calculations have inherent uncertainty that is not fully represented in the current study since a single GCM was used as the starting point for all calculations. The PCM results used in the current study predicted greater wintertime increases in air temperature over the Pacific Ocean than over land, further motivating comparison to other GCM results. Ensembles of GCM results are usually employed to build confidence in climate calculations. The current results provide a first data-point for the climate-air quality analysis that simultaneously employ the fine spatial resolution and long time scales needed to capture the behavior of climate-PM2.5 interactions in California. Future downscaling studies should follow up with a full ensemble of GCMs as their starting point, and include aerosol feedback effects on local meteorology.

Dust Aerosol Important for Snowball Earth Deglaciation

Abstract Most previous global climate model simulations could only produce the termination of Snowball Earth episodes at CO2 partial pressures of several tenths of a bar, which is roughly an order of magnitude higher than recent estimates of CO2 levels during and shortly after Snowball events. These simulations have neglected the impact of dust aerosols on radiative transfer, which is an assumption of potentially grave importance. In this paper it is argued, using the Dust Entrainment and Deposition (DEAD) box model driven by GCM results, that atmospheric dust aerosol concentrations may have been one to two orders of magnitude higher during a Snowball Earth event than today. It is furthermore asserted on the basis of calculations using NCAR’s Single Column Atmospheric Model (SCAM)—a radiative–convective model with sophisticated aerosol, cloud, and radiative parameterizations—that when the surface albedo is high, such increases in dust aerosol loading can produce several times more surface warming than an increase in the partial pressure of CO2 from 10−4 to 10−1 bar. Therefore the conclusion is reached that including dust aerosols in simulations may reconcile the CO2 levels required for Snowball termination in climate models with observations.

Lessons learned from oxygen isotopes in modern precipitation applied to interpretation of speleothem records of paleoclimate from eastern Asia

Variability in oxygen isotope ratios collected from speleothems in Chinese caves is often interpreted as a proxy for variability of precipitation, summer precipitation, seasonality of precipitation, and/or the proportion of 18O to 16O of annual total rainfall that is related to a strengthening or weakening of the East Asian monsoon and, in some cases, to the Indian monsoon. We use modern reanalysis and station data to test whether precipitation and temperature variability over China can be related to changes in climate in these distant locales. We find that annual and rainy season precipitation totals in each of central China, south China, and east India have correlation length scales of ∼500km, shorter than the distance between many speleothem records that share similar long-term time variations in δ18O values. Thus the short distances of correlation do not support, though by themselves cannot refute, the idea that apparently synchronous variations in δ18O values at widely spaced (>500km) caves in China are due to variations in annual precipitation amounts. We also evaluate connections between climate variables and δ18O values using available instrumental measurements of δ18O values in precipitation. These data, from stations in the Global Network of Isotopes in Precipitation (GNIP), show that monthly δ18O values generally do not correlate well with either local precipitation amount or local temperature, and the degree to which monthly δ18O values do correlate with them varies from station to station. For the few locations that do show significant correlations between δ18O values and precipitation amount, we estimate the differences in precipitation amount that would be required to account for peak-to-peak differences in δ18O values in the speleothems from Hulu and Dongge caves, assuming that δ18O scales with the monthly amount of precipitation or with seasonal differences in precipitation. Insofar as the present-day relationship between δ18O values and monthly precipitation amounts can be applied to past conditions, differences of at least 50% in mean annual precipitation would be required to explain the δ18O variations on orbital time scales, which are implausibly large and inconsistent with published GCM results. Similarly, plausible amplitudes of seasonal cycles in amounts or in seasonal variations in δ18O values can account for less than half of the 4–5‰ difference between glacial and interglacial δ18O values from speleothems in China. If seasonal cycles in precipitation account for the amplitudes of δ18O values on paleoclimate timescales, they might do so by extending or contracting the durations of seasons (a frequency modulation of the annual cycle), but not by simply varying the amplitudes of the monthly rainfall amounts or monthly average δ18O values (amplitude modulation). Allowing that several processes can affect seasonal variability in isotopic content, we explore the possibility that one or more of the following processes contribute to variations in δ18O values in Chinese cave speleothems: different source regions of the precipitation, which bring different values of δ18O in vapor; different pathways between the moisture source and the paleorecord site along which exchange of 18O between vapor, surface water, and condensate might differ; a different mix of processes involving condensation and evaporation within the atmosphere; or different types of precipitation. Each may account for part of the range of δ18O values revealed by speleothems, and each might contribute to seasonal differences between past and present that do not scale with monthly or even seasonal precipitation amounts.

Influences of Venus’ topography on fully developed superrotation and near-surface flow

Abstract We investigate the influence of topography on Venus’ atmospheric general circulation. Based on comparative simulations with and without the Venusian topography, we elucidate the role of the topography in the fully developed superrotation. Orographically forced stationary waves are predominant over Mt. Maxwell: slightly weakening the superrotation near the cloud top. Differently from previous GCM results, the orographically forced waves do not produce significant asymmetry between the northern and southern hemispheric superrotations in the present model. Weak surface flows from mountains to lowlands are caused by the pressure dependence of the Newtonian cooling. The pattern and magnitude of the near-surface flow are largely different from those simulated in the Herrnstein and Dowling (2007) model. This implies that the parameterizations of physical processes (such as Newtonian cooling, turbulence, diffusion, and surface drag) and the model resolution could significantly influence the pattern and magnitude of the near-surface flow and the orographical forcing of planetary-scale stationary waves.

Reconstructing glacier-based climates of LGM Europe and Russia – Part 3: Comparison with previous climate reconstructions

Abstract. Understanding past climates using GCM models is critical to confidently predicting future climate change. Although previous analysis of GCM simulations have shown them to under calculate European glacial temperature anomalies (the difference between modern and glacial temperatures) such analyses have focused primarily on results from glacial simulations alone. Here we compare glacial maximum GCM results with the palaeoenvironment derived from glacier-climate modelling. The comparison confirms that GCM anomalies are not large enough, and that this is due to modern conditions that are modelled too cold and glacial temperatures that are too warm. The result is that GCM results, if applied to a glacier mass balance model, over predict the extent of glaciers today, and under calculate their extent at the last glacial (as depicted in glacial geological reconstructions). Effects such as seasonality and model parameterisation change the magnitude of the under calculation but still fail to match expected glacial conditions.

The Sensitivity of the Radiation Budget in a Climate Simulation to Neglecting the Effect of Small Ice Particles

Abstract The sensitivity of the atmospheric radiation budget to ignoring small ice particles (D ≤ 100 μm) in parameterization of the mean effective size of ice particles was investigated by using the Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis (CCCma) third-generation general atmospheric circulation model (AGCM3). The results indicate that small ice particles play two crucial roles in the radiative transfer that influence the simulated climate. First, they inhibit the IR radiation from escaping to space and, second, they enhance the scattering of solar radiation. On average, these two effects tend to partially cancel each other out. However, based on AGCM simulations, the small ice crystals make clouds more opaque to IR radiation. Generally, 5-yr seasonally averaged GCM results suggest that the strongest anomalies in outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) are found in the Tropics, reaching 15 to 25 W m−2 in areas where cold high cirrus anvil clouds are prevalent. The global average change in net cloud radiative forcing was 2.4 W m−2 in June–August (JJA) and 1.7 W m−2 in December–February (DJF). The change in globally averaged 5-yr mean cloud forcing was close to 1.9 W m−2. When the small particles were included, the globally averaged 5-yr mean precipitation decreased by about 8%, but cloudiness increased only slightly (by 2%). The 5-yr averaged global mean surface (screen) temperature also increased slightly (about 0.2°C) when the small ice particles were included.

Retracted: Dependence of climate states of gray atmosphere on solar constant: From the runaway greenhouse to the snowball states

Multiple equilibrium solutions of a gray atmosphere are investigated for various values of the solar constant. Two types of models are utilized in order to conduct a comparative study: a general circulation model with simplified physical processes (GCM) and a one‐dimensional energy balance model (EBM). For intermediate values of solar constant, both of the models indicate the existence of multiple solutions that include the runaway greenhouse state in addition to the globally ice‐covered state and the partially ice‐covered state. In the GCM results, there is no partially ice‐covered state with the ice line latitude lower than 22°. This indicates that the large ice cap instability discussed in previous EBM studies also occurs in GCM. Compared to the results of EBM, the ice line of the partially ice‐covered state of GCM reaches lower latitudes. The appearance of the large ice cap instability in our GCM is impeded by condensation heating at the ice lines. The efficient latitudinal heat transport in the Hadley cell is considered to be a contributing factor to this delay in ice cap expansion.