As CMOS devices become smaller, aging-induced and process variations become major issues for circuit reliability. In this paper, a statistical gate sizing method is proposed to improve the lifetime reliability of manufactured chips in the presence of process variations and aging effects. To this end, we propose a canonical first order delay model to estimate the delay degradation of a gate under negative bias temperature instability and process variations considering spatial correlations. Using the proposed gate delay model, a statistical static timing analysis method is introduced to compute the circuit delay considering the joint effect of process variation and negative bias temperature instability. To guarantee that the circuit meets the required timing constraints, we propose an incremental gate sizing technique. This technique first computes the criticality of each gate defined as the probability that a gate lies on the critical path due to negative bias temperature instability and process variations. Then, a group of gates with the highest ranking according to criticality is chosen for a gate sizing-based timing optimization. It is worth nothing that, by using the proposed statistical gate delay model, we can compute the criticality of each gate incrementally. Experimental results based on ISCAS’85 benchmark circuits show that the proposed method can improve the lifetime reliability defined as <inline-formula xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink"> <tex-math notation="LaTeX">$1.1(\mu + 3\sigma)$ </tex-math></inline-formula> of the initial delay distribution of the circuit at the expense of 8.64% area overhead. In comparison with the path-based method, the proposed approach is much faster, especially for larger circuits, which makes it a viable solution to optimize the lifetime reliability of very large-scale circuits used in industry.