Gas Market Model Research Articles

Assessing the impact of storage obligations on the EU gas market: An uncertainty analysis

The low gas filling levels in underground gas storages (UGSs) in the European Union (EU), and the subsequent price volatility and geopolitical tensions between Russia and the EU triggered the adoption of counterbalancing policy strategies in the EU. A specific measure was the mandatory refilling of UGSs at 90 % by 1 November of each year to ensure adequate gas stocks. This paper assesses the impact of storage obligations on natural gas prices and the welfare of EU consumers for two market settings: a tight gas market, as experienced at the end of 2021, and a loose gas market. We use a gas market model with detailed technological constraints and uncertain input parameters. The uncertain parameters are sampled via the Latin Hypercube sampling method. The main sources of uncertainty are the storage settings, the scarcity induced both on the supply and the demand side, and the alternative storage targets. The results point out economic benefits mainly on EU consumers, in terms of avoided expenditures. The consumer payment savings under tight market conditions range up to 17 % on average, while the impact of the policy remains more questionable in the absence of scarcity: under loose market conditions, evidence of benefits is provided for 60 % of the simulated scenarios.

The emerging hydrogen economy and its impact on LNG

Hydrogen is gaining prominence as a critical tool for countries to meet decarbonisation targets. The main production pathways are based on natural gas or renewable electricity. LNG represents an increasingly important component of the global natural gas market. This paper examines synergies and linkages between the hydrogen and LNG values chains and quantifies the impact of increased low-carbon hydrogen production on global LNG flows. The analysis is conducted through interviews with LNG industry stakeholders, a review of secondary literature and a scenario-based assessment of the potential development of global low-carbon hydrogen production and LNG trade until 2050 using a novel, integrated natural gas and hydrogen market model. The model-based analysis shows that low-carbon hydrogen production could become a significant user of natural gas and thus stabilise global LNG demand. Furthermore, commercial and operational synergies could assist the LNG industry in developing a value chain around natural gas-based low-carbon hydrogen.

The V4’s Gas Market transition towards the EU’s Energy Security

Current development of the European gas market uncovers several new opportunities and challenges for energy security that developed from big changes in production, transit and supply ways of natural gas to Europe. New European gas market model builds on the principles of diversification, the security of supply, interconnectivity and liberalization. Realization of the EU Third Energy Package related to a progressive shift from long-term oil-linked gas supply contracts and development of alternative gas supply sources and lines, as well as the rivalry between already established gas transit lines and the new supply lines present new challenges and require transition for the V4 countries. In this article I studied what are the new changes and challenges of the transition of V4 countries towards the EU’s energy security? To adjust to transition V4 countries should build the new infrastructure on the short-term pricing market and the ways how it will be funded. If V4 countries want to trade gas with the neighbours and transport most of the Russian gas to Europe, they need to invest into reforms of pipelines’ networks or to find other alternatives of diversification in the next decades. Returns on investment on a liberalized market with a multitude of competitors will be manageable but require serious reforms. The V4 countries will have to enter into the spot markets to efficiently trade gas. Available gas hubs in Europe are much smaller, less liquid, and mostly supplied by the same companies as the long-term traded gas hubs. This kind of markets is easy to manipulate. Therefore, it is important for the V4 countries to plan how to coordinate their national energy policies and name EU’s energy targets for the future.

Effects of the Henry Hub Price on U.S. LNG Exports and on Gas Flows in Western Europe

Natural gas plays an important role in energy supply, and its fields of application are diverse. However, the world’s largest growth potential among fossil fuels is attributed to liquefied natural gas (LNG). In the last few years, the U.S. rapidly increased LNG exports, and it is expected that they will further increase the liquefaction capacities. The cost of the LNG value chain is composed of the natural gas price in the country of origin, and the LNG process costs for liquefaction, transportation, storage, and regasification. Thus, the Henry Hub (HH) price in the U.S. is important for U.S. LNG exports to Western Europe. In this paper, gas flows in Western Europe at the beginning of the 2030s are analyzed if the price at HH is higher or lower than expected. Furthermore, the effect of the HH price on monthly U.S. LNG exports are studied. For the calculations, the global gas market model WEGA is used. The results reveal that the price at HH has a significant effect on annual gas flows in Western Europe and also on U.S. LNG exports during the summer. Furthermore, it is shown that pipeline gas in Western Europe will absorb fluctuations of U.S. LNG exports between the presented scenarios.

Trans-ASEAN gas pipeline and ASEAN gas market integration: Insights from a scenario analysis

In order to promote ASEAN gas market integration, this paper offers four scenarios to renew momentum towards continuing with the marginalised Trans-ASEAN gas pipeline (TAGP) and further development of cross-border pipeline gas trading. The four subregional and regional market integration scenarios could be used as stepping-stones to achieve ASEAN gas market integration. The impact of each scenario was estimated with the least cost world gas market model and the impact is indicated by the difference between each integration scenario and the baseline scenario, respectively. The simulations suggest that integrated gas markets in ASEAN are beneficial through the reduction of total procurement costs for ASEAN and the World. The TAGP is also beneficial in terms of incentivising ASEAN production that can be transported cost-effectively to demand centres within the region. The development of marginal production due to the availability of lower cost transportation is in line with ASEAN's goals for resource optimisation and energy security enhancement. The paper suggests that ASEAN should advocate the gas market integration, and that ASEAN member states could take various institutional measures to achieve higher levels of integration.

Natural Gas Transits and Market Power: The Case of Turkey

Turkey is a key country in order to realize the Southern Gas Corridor (SGC) due to its geographical location. However, as the main transit country within the SGC, Turkey could potentially exert market power with gas transits. Whether Turkey exerts market power or not, is crucial for an economic assessment of the SGC. Hence, the article investigates this issue quantitatively using a global partial equilibrium gas market model. An oligopolistic and a competitive supply structure in the European upstream market in 2030 are considered in the model based on calibrations to historical gas market situations. If the European gas market in 2030 is characterized by an oligopolistic supply, Turkey is able to exert market power resulting in higher prices compared to competitive transits, in particular in South Eastern Europe. In a competitive market structure, however, the importance of the SGC and thus the potential of Turkish transit market power is limited.

How far is mitigation of Russian gas dependency possible through energy efficiency and renewable policies assuming different gas market structures?

This paper presents the results of a coordinated modelling assessment that incorporates European energy efficiency and renewable policies with two potential gas market scenarios. First, the impact of EU energy efficiency and renewable policies on natural gas demand is calculated using the PRIMES model 2014 Baseline projection, the Fraunhofer ISI Low Policy Intensity Energy Efficiency scenario, and the Green-X model for renewable deployment. Next, the effect of these policies on the natural gas markets is assessed, using the European Gas Market Model. The model tests scenarios for different positions on long-term gas contracts with Russia assuming different stages of European gas infrastructure development. The findings show that dependency on Russian natural gas can be reduced to low levels without triggering a significant increase in natural gas prices for any single EU member country. In an extreme scenario whereby energy efficiency savings, higher renewable energy sources deployment and the assumed positive gas market developments take place simultaneously, gas cost savings can reach as high as 37%. Benefits arise not only in the most recent round of EU Member States (12 MS) targeted in the study, but are visible across most EU gas markets. This underlines the interlinkages of the whole EU gas market, and the results suggest that security of gas supply is not only a challenge for new Member States, but in the broader European markets.

Risks in global natural gas markets: Investment, hedging and trade

Recent supply security concerns in Europe have revived interest into the natural gas market. We investigate infrastructure investment and trade in an imperfect market structure for various possible risks for both supply and demand. We focus on three possible scenarios in a stochastic global gas market model: (i) transit of Russian gas via Ukraine that may be disrupted from 2020 on; (ii) natural gas intensity of electricity generation in OECD countries that may lead to higher or lower natural gas demand after 2025; and (iii) availability of shale gas around the globe after 2030. We illustrate how the timing of investments is affected by inter-temporal hedging behavior of market agents, such as when LNG capacity provides ex-ante flexibility or an ex-post fallback option if domestic or nearby pipeline supply sources are low. Moreover, we find that investment in LNG capacities is more determined by demand side pull – due to higher needs in electric power generation – than by supply side push, e.g. higher shale gas supplies needing an outlet. We focus on Europe, North America, and China that are the world's most important gas consuming and supplying regions.

Electricity and Natural Gas Interdependency: Comparison of Two Methodologies for Coupling Large Market Models Within the European Regulatory Framework

Power generation growth based on natural gas fired power plants (NGFPPs) has lead to increasing interactions between electric power and natural gas industries. More companies are progressively and simultaneously participating as big players in both markets. However, each company has traditionally been settled in one side, holding a particular competitive advantage: electric power generation companies mainly know how to operate their generation assets, whereas gas companies mainly know how to manage their gas supply contracts and make use of often regulated gas assets. Multi-product energy companies have even created independent departments which decisions are usually taken uncoordinatedly. In any case, companies (or departments) usually support their decision-making process in mathematical tools which represent each market with detail. This paper presents two methodologies for coupling two interdependent electricity and gas market models formulated as optimization problems. Each methodology fulfills different department wishes. The “electricity-perspective” methodology maximizes electricity market profits after calculating equivalent gas contracts with the gas market model. In contrast, the “gas-perspective” methodology minimizes gas operation costs after obtaining the relationship between the marginal revenue and the gas consumption with the electricity market model. This coordinated solution would allow companies to obtain synergies, resulting in a competitive advantage over other companies that operate uncoordinatedly in both markets

North American Natural Gas Model Impact of Cross-Border Trade with Mexico

Natural gas as a source of energy has attracted a lot of interest as its emissions rate and price are lower than other fossil fuel energy sources. In the U.S., natural gas-fired power generation has been rising, as coal has declined as a share of the fuel mix. Likewise, Mexico recently launched its energy reform with focus on greatly expanding use of natural gas over other fossil fuels, primarily in the energy sector, by opening the market to private investors. These recent economic and policy changes, along with increasing gas production in the U.S. (shale gas boom) are likely to drive the natural gas market in North America in a new direction. For instance, the Annual Energy Outlook 2015 describes the U.S. for the first time as a net exporter of natural gas (via pipelines and LNG) by 2017. In order to study the current North American gas market with its new regulations like the Mexican energy reform, this paper presents the North American Natural Gas Market Model (NANGAM). We propose a long-term partial-equilibrium model of the United States, Mexican, and Canadian gas markets. NANGAM considers more granular details regarding market regions and pipelines in Mexico than other existing models, allows for endogenous infrastructure expansion, and is built in five year time-steps up to 2040, considering three seasons (low, high, and peak demand) for each time-step. NANGAM is calibrated using up-to-date data, which reflects current gas market trends, such as the increasing U.S. shale gas production. Using NANGAM, we assess the implications of the Mexican energy reform using a set of ad-hoc future scenarios. Results from the model show that, in the case of disappointing development of natural gas production in Mexico, the census region US7 (Texas and adjacent states) is the most affected, reaching an increase of natural gas production of up to 12% by 2040 compared to baseline projections.

Strategic Eurasian natural gas market model for energy security and policy analysis: Formulation and application to South Stream

The mathematical formulation of a strategic Eurasian natural gas market model is presented. The model represents horizontal oligopolistic relationships among producers, bilateral market power between producer (Russia) and transit (Ukraine) countries, detailed transport constraints, and operation decisions over a 20year time horizon. To demonstrate the model's capabilities, a financial and market analysis of the proposed South Stream gas pipeline from Russia via the Black Sea to South Europe is summarized. Insights obtained include the following. First, expectations of high demand growth in Europe and/or transit risks do not justify the construction of the South Stream pipeline because under all demand and Ukraine transit interruption scenarios, the net benefits to the South Stream participants are negative (the NPV ranges from −$1.9billion (bn) to −$7.4bn). Second, Ukraine's perception of high transit market power vis-à-vis Russia may trigger the construction of the otherwise unprofitable South Stream project. Thus, under Ukraine's high transit market power scenario, the NPV of South Stream ranges between $2.4bn and $24.5bn. Third, we find that the South Stream investment increases the efficiency of the European gas market under the following conditions: (i) when gas demand in Europe grows 2% per year up to 2030, (ii) when Ukraine poses high transit market power, or (iii) under a combination of severe transit risks through Ukraine and low demand scenarios in Europe. It should be noted that the value of South Stream to both its project sponsors and the market as a whole is much higher when Ukraine exercises transit market power than under the high demand scenario. Therefore, whether Ukraine is likely to wield market power is crucial to the success of the South Stream project because that is the only scenario in which the project yields both a positive expected NPV to its sponsors and the highest value to the market as a whole.

Benders Decomposition for multi-stage stochastic mixed complementarity problems – Applied to a global natural gas market model

This paper presents and implements a Benders Decomposition type of algorithm for large-scale, stochastic multi-period mixed complementarity problems. The algorithm is applied to various multi-stage natural gas market models accounting for market power exertion by traders. Due to the non-optimization nature of the natural gas market problem, a straightforward implementation of the traditional Benders Decomposition is not possible. The master and subproblems can be derived from the underlying optimization problems and transformed into complementarity problems. However, to complete the master problems optimality cuts are added using the variational inequality-based method developed in Gabriel and Fuller (2010). In this manner, an alternative derivation of Benders Decomposition for Stochastic MCP is presented, thereby making this approach more applicable to a broader audience. The algorithm can successfully solve problems with up to 256 scenarios and more than 600 thousand variables, and problems with over 117 thousand variables with more than two thousand first-stage capacity expansion variables. The algorithm is efficient for solving two-stage problems. The computational time reduction for other stochastic problems is considerable and would be even larger if a parallel implementation of the algorithm were used. The paper concludes with a discussion of infrastructure expansion results, illustrating the impact of hedging on investment timing and optimal capacity sizes.

Demand for seasonal gas storage in northwest Europe until 2030: Simulation results with a dynamic model

The fact that depletion of indigenous gas production increases gas import dependency is widely known and accepted. However, there is considerable less attention for the implications of indigenous resource depletion for the provision of seasonal flexibility. The traditionally largest source of seasonal flexibility in Europe is indigenous gas production, mainly based in the Netherlands and the United Kingdom. With the depletion of indigenous sources the market increasingly needs to rely on other sources for seasonal flexibility, such as gas storage facilities. We investigate the future need for gas storage as a source for seasonal flexibility provision using a dynamic gas market model (GASTALE) in which different potential sources for seasonal flexibility – gas production, imports via pipeline, LNG imports and storage facilities – compete with each other in a market-based environment. The inclusion of seasonal flexibility properties in a gas market model allows a more complex analysis of seasonal flexibility issues than previously documented in literature. This is demonstrated in an analysis of the future demand for gas storage in northwestern Europe until 2030. Our results indicate that there is substantial need for additional gas storage facilities and thus supports current project proposals for new investment in gas storage facilities.

Towards a Composite Political Risk Indicator for Country Oil and Gas Industry Stock Market Sectors

The purpose of this paper is to test an international oil and gas market model, hypothesised to arrive at new indicator of pure composite political risk for country oil and gas sectors. Current political risk ratings are largely subjectively quantified and are not frequently published. Investors in oil and gas industry portfolios as well as trade and investment policy formulators should be interested that there is a strong theoretical and practical basis where pure political risk indicators may be obtained daily rather than monthly using stock market generated data. A systemic international capital asset pricing model is a useful framework as long as available financial and economic information is captured along with systemic interdependence and control introduced for country size and wealth effects. If so, an indication of the influence of human (political) factors in each country oil and gas industry sector can be provided.

A Dynamic Simulation of Market Power in the Liberalised European Natural Gas Market

Recent increases in the world price of oil have led to higher gas prices in Europe, possibly leading to greater opportunities for exercising market power. The effect of different gas producer strategies upon price levels in the liberalised European gas market over the period 2005-2030 is analysed using a dynamic gas market model that accounts for demand, supply, and investments in pipeline transport, LNG, and storage. The multi-period model formulation allows exploration of the dynamics of market power as transportation and storage capacities are augmented and interact with demand growth. The combined effects of spatial configuration of the supply network and supplier location upon intensity of competition in ten different regions in Europe are considered. Differences in prices are due to the interaction of (1) inherent ability of producers to exercise market power (determined by production capacity and costs) with the (2) accessibility of the market (determined by gas transport infrastructure).

The development of natural gas supply costs to Europe, the United States and Japan in a globalizing gas market—Model-based analysis until 2030

Quickly declining natural gas reserves in some parts of the world, increasing demand in today's major gas consuming regions, the emergence of new demand centres and the globalization of natural gas markets caused by the rising importance of liquefied natural gas (LNG) are changing global gas supply structures and will continue to do so over the next decades. Applying a global gas market model, we produce a forecast for global gas supply to 2030 and determine the supplier-specific long-run average costs of gas supplied to three major consuming regions. Results for the three regions are compared and analysed with a focus on costs, supply diversification and the different roles of LNG. We find that while European and Japanese external gas supply will be less diversified in international comparison, gas can be supplied at relatively low costs due to the regions’ favourable locations in geographic proximity to large gas producers. The US market's supply structure on the other hand will significantly change from its current situation. The growing dependency on LNG imports from around the world will lead to significantly higher supply costs but will also increase diversification as gas will originate from an increasing number of LNG exporting countries.

Generalization of backpropagation with application to a recurrent gas market model

Backpropagation is often viewed as a method for adapting artificial neural networks to classify patterns. Based on parts of the book by Rumelhart and colleagues, many authors equate backpropagation with the generalized delta rule applied to fully-connected feedforward networks. This paper will summarize a more general formulation of backpropagation, developed in 1974, which does more justice to the roots of the method in numerical analysis and statistics, and also does more justice to creative approaches expressed by neural modelers in the past year or two. It will discuss applications of backpropagation to forecasting over time (where errors have been halved by using methods other than least squares), to optimization, to sensitivity analysis, and to brain research. This paper will go on to derive a generalization of backpropagation to recurrent systems (which input their own output), such as hybrids of perceptron-style networks and Grossberg/Hopfield networks. Unlike the proposal of Rumelhart, Hinton, and Williams, this generalization does not require the storage of intermediate iterations to deal with continuous recurrence. This generalization was applied in 1981 to a model of natural gas markets, where it located sources of forecast uncertainty related to the use of least squares to estimate the model parameters in the first place.

An overview of the Gas Analysis Modeling System (GAMS)

This paper is an overview of the March 1984 version of the Gas Analysis Modeling System (GAMS), the detailed natural gas market model used by the Energy Information Administration (EIA) to analyze the U.S. natural gas markets.