Gas Deliveries Research Articles

Modeling the transformation of the EU’s energy sector and its impact on carbon emissions in the context of an energy collapse

The European Union relies heavily on energy imports from foreign countries, especially for oil and natural gas. This reliance on energy imports exposes the EU to the risks of price fluctuations and interruptions in supply. The likelihood of a complete halt in natural gas deliveries significantly rises following the onset of a hybrid economic war between the Russian Federation and the EU. The use of “dirty fossil fuels” is one of the options for immediate compensation for the natural gas deficit. Therefore, due to the increase in carbon emissions, an energy collapse can have a direct impact on the climate. The goal of the proposed research is to develop a model for the transformation of the EU’s energy sector and its impact on carbon emissions in the context of catastrophic changes in the structure of energy imports. During the research, a simulation model of the development of a three-sector energy market was established. The driver of changes in the model is the minimization of CO2 emissions. The modeling has shown that under normal conditions, the role of renewable energy sources gradually increases. Modeling the conditions of “gas blackmail” has revealed that the emerged deficit in the system will be primarily compensated by the use of dirty fossil fuels.

Design-to-Cost Approach Increases Project Value of Troll Phase 3

_ This article, written by JPT Technology Editor Chris Carpenter, contains highlights of paper OTC 30954, “Troll Phase 3: The Next Step for a Groundbreaking Giant,” by Bjørn Laastad, Knut Ellevog, and Roger Oen Jensen, Equinor, et al. The paper has not been peer reviewed. Copyright 2021 Offshore Technology Conference. Reproduced by permission. _ An important driver for maximizing value creation for the Troll Phase 3 gas project offshore Norway was to identify ways to reduce the pressure drop in the value chain from the reservoir to the onshore terminal. Using a design-to-cost approach in the concept-selection phase has affected design of the wells, subsea production system, pipeline, and a new inlet separator on the platform. The final design has enabled a significant increase of project value by accelerated gas deliveries, reduction of energy consumption, and lowered CO2 emissions. Troll Phase 3 Business Case and Development Concept The Troll Phase 3 business case is to develop the vast gas reserves in Troll West, thus recovering approximately 340 billion std m3 gas over a 40‑year period. Production from Troll West will be commingled with Troll East gas production at Troll A. The Troll West volumes will supply approximately 40% of the total Troll A delivery and enable a 5‑year continuation of the current high plateau production level of 36 billion std m3/yr and an extension of field lifetime by 15 years until 2062. A prerequisite for the Phase 3 project is that the annual summer/winter swing production will be from the Troll A wells. Consequently, Troll West production will be stable and not affected by seasonal variations in market demand. Following a comprehensive concept‑selection analysis made from the perspective of the field’s life cycle, it was decided in May 2017 to develop Troll Phase 3 as a subsea tieback to the Troll A platform. The subsea design facilitates possible future Troll West gas building blocks. The first section of the complete paper is devoted to a discussion of the flow‑assurance aspects of the development; this component is not included in this synopsis. Troll Phase 3 Well Design During the feasibility and concept‑selection phases, an important opportunity to maximize value creation was found to be improving individual well performance by enlarging the tubing size. The standard 7‑in. tubing would have been a considerable production restriction. By enabling a larger tubing size, the production from each well could be increased and the required number of wells could be reduced. The big-bore completion design was new to the operator but had been implemented successfully in other high‑rate gas fields in the industry. Using a design‑to‑value process, the tubing size for Troll Phase 3 was increased to 9⅝ in. Comparison of a big‑bore well to a standard 7‑in. well in 2030 gives a reduced pressure drop of more than 12 bars/well, with an increased production potential for the big‑bore well of greater than 1000 std m3/d. Consequently, the required number of wells could be reduced by approximately 40% (from 14 to eight). Factoring in the total cost of the final gas producers, six saved wells equals a total cost savings of $150 million ($300 million including the subsea facilities).

Determining optimal fuel delivery strategies under uncertainty

During the preparation before a hurricane makes landfall, affected individuals may be asked to evacuate. Large and small-scale evacuations can cause rapid increases in the demand for gasoline fuel. However, during a hurricane vessels carrying gas may be delayed and/or rerouted, adding to the difficulty of providing the necessary gas in affected areas. In this work, we determine alternate delivery locations and times for vessels carrying fuel that are scheduled to arrive and deliver fuel at ports impacted by an approaching hurricane. Motivated by Hurricane Irma in Florida, we develop a multi-period stochastic scheduling model that incorporates hurricane (weather) advisories, fuel delivery schedules, port storage capacities, and port docking capacities. Our model determines the best schedule based on two objectives: (1) minimize the total unmet demand at each port, and (2) minimize inequities in unmet demands among the ports. We also present a case study and a numerical experiment based on fuel delivery data from ports in Florida. Among our key findings is that port availability is the driving factor in determining feasible schedules for vessel gas deliveries. We also present a scheduling heuristic that dynamically adapts to weather advisories so as to minimize the impact of unmet demand in the affected areas.

State Intervention in the Natural Gas Industry. The Importance of Last Resort Supply in the Romanian Natural Gas Market

In the last two years we have seen an increasing role of the state intervention in different sectors such as medicine, critical infrastructure, energy and, last but not least, security. Of course, such interventions were needed in order to provide a promptly response to COVID-19 pandemic and the urgency to start the economic recovery after the pandemic or to help both the population and the economic sector to cope with the extreme volatility of the energy markets, likewise increasing investments in military equipment and infrastructure, the last two being the result of Russia’s war in Ukraine, accompanied by Gazprom’s non-compliance with the contractual clauses for gas deliveries. Observational and case study based research conducted by the author will result in a fact-based detailing of some of the most important state interventions in the gas sector which took place in some of the biggest European countries, as well as similar examples in Romania.

Andrzej Bobkowski and Józef Czapski

Andrzej Bobkowski and Józef Czapski

Germany and Russia: Farewell to Ostpolitik?

Following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz appeared to jettison 50 years of Ostpolitik by pledging financial and military support for Ukraine, sanctioning Russia and promising to spend more on defence. Seven months into the war, progress on the German Zeitenwende (turning point) is mixed. Germany has sustained far-reaching sanctions and is grappling with weaning itself off Russian energy, but military deliveries to Ukraine have been slow. The German public continues to support Ukraine, but as winter approaches that support could erode, since Russia has tied future gas deliveries to the lifting of sanctions.

Study on Potential Role and Benefits of Liquified Natural Gas Import Terminal in Latvia

Abstract Natural gas is relatively clean energy source, which emits less greenhouse gases (hereinafter – GHG), compared to other fossil fuels, such as hard and brown coal, and therefore it may be the most feasible resource to ensure smooth energy transition towards Europe’s climate neutrality by 2050. Traditional natural gas can be easily transported and used in liquefied (hereinafter – LNG) or compressed form. As for biomethane, in future it also can be used in liquefied (hereinafter – bioLNG) and compressed form, as well as transported by means of the current natural gas infrastructure. It can also significantly enhance regional and national energy security and independence, which has been challenging for the European Union (hereinafter – EU) over at least several decades. Issue on energy independence, security of supply, alternative natural gas sources has been in a hotspot of the Baltic energy policy makers as well. Now, considering Russia’s invasion in Ukraine, since late February 2022, a problem of the EU natural gas dependency on the Russian Federation has escalated again and with force never before experienced. The European natural gas prices also hit records, as the natural gas prices in the Netherlands Title Transfer Facility reached 345 euros per megawatt-hour (hereinafter – EUR/MWh) in March 2022. Therefore, LNG import terminal is the only viable option to reduce national dependency of the so-called pipe gas which in some cases, due to the insufficient interconnections, may be delivered from very limited number of sources. The European policy makers and relevant institutions are currently working towards radical EU natural gas supply diversification, where LNG deliveries coming from outside of Russia will certainly take a central stage. In case of Latvia, the potential benefits of the LNG terminal development in Skulte were evaluated in order to reduce energy independence of the Russian natural gas deliveries in the Baltic region and to introduce new ways and sources of the natural gas flows to the Baltics. LNG terminal in Skulte could ensure significant capital investment cost reduction comparing to other projects proposed for Latvia in different periods, due to already existing natural gas transmission infrastructure and the relative closeness to the Incukalns underground gas storage (hereinafter – UGS). Various aspects, such as technical, political and economic ones, were analysed to assure that Skulte LNG terminal would be a real asset not only to customers of Latvia, but also to those of the whole Baltic region, where in future it would be possible to use biomethane for efficient utilisation of existing and developing natural gas infrastructure.

Reliable instrumental metering of natural gas is the key to Ukraine’s energy independence

By virtue of geographical and historic factors, Ukraine has been playing an important role in oil and natural gas deliveries to European energy markets. Such status is basically attributed to the fact that West and Central European countries, while being rather big consumers of natural hydrocarbons, have shortage in their own energy resources.
 On the other hand, major natural gas and oil reserves are concentrated in the Russian Federation, Caspian region and the Gulf area. Currently Ukraine has become a major juncture in the transit of gas and oil from Russia and Kazakhstan to European markets. The expected increase in consumption of natural hydrocarbon resources, as well as their uneven distribution make Ukraine, owing to its suitable geographical location and the developed gas and oil network, an “energy bridge” between the exporting countries and consumers in the industrialized Europe.
 In the article the author considers the modern gas supply system of Ukraine. The author carried out a study on the technical feasibility of calibration of flow meters on the environment of natural gas under pressure. Currently in Ukraine calibration is performed only in the air. This does not make it possible to reduce the error in the instrumentation of natural gas. Given the volume of natural gas consumption in the country (about 20 billion m3/year), this leads to huge non-production losses, negative impact on economic performance and inflated cost for end users. The European experience was analyzed: PTB, DNV, PIGSAR, SICK, INOTECH. Modernization of the gas industry of Ukraine is proposed.

Особенности правового регулирования деятельности операторов товарных поставок на рынке газа

This article studies the peculiarities of the legal status of the gas transportation operator under exchange contracts organizing transportation and serving as a prototype of the new law institution of the commodity delivery operator. In order to balance interests of gas sellers, buyers, and consumers, commodity delivery conditions shall be met and commercial gas balancing in the exchange and over-the-counter markets shall be implemented to ensure the fulfillment of all delivery obligations. The article addresses the implementation of the institution of the commodity delivery operator in the gas exchange market, as well as the peculiarities of commercial gas balancing aimed at 100% fulfillment of exchange contracts and reduction of market players’ costs. The role of the commodity delivery operator organizing gas transportation, metering, and monitoring of gas deliveries is important for the implementation of commercial balancing. Effective, well-balanced reforms are essential for the growth and creation of a favorable investment climate needed to modernize the gas market.

The Peculiarities of the Legal Regulation of Activities of Commodity Delivery Operators in the Gas Market

This article studies the peculiarities of the legal status of the gas transportation operator under exchange contracts organizing transportation and serving as a prototype of the new law institution of the commodity delivery operator. In order to balance interests of gas sellers, buyers, and consumers, commodity delivery conditions shall be met and commercial gas balancing in the exchange and over-the-counter markets shall be implemented to ensure the fulfillment of all delivery obligations. The article addresses the implementation of the institution of the commodity delivery operator in the gas exchange market, as well as the peculiarities of commercial gas balancing aimed at 100% fulfillment of exchange contracts and reduction of market players’ costs. The role of the commodity delivery operator organizing gas transportation, metering, and monitoring of gas deliveries is important for the implementation of commercial balancing. Effective, well-balanced reforms are essential for the growth and creation of a favorable investment climate needed to modernize the gas market.

Assessment of physical work demands of long-distance industrial gas delivery truck drivers

AimThe aim of this study was to assess the work-related physical demands of long-distance truck drivers employed by a large gas delivery company in Canada. MethodsA total of 15 truck drivers participated in a data collection that included self-reporting assessments, field observations, and direct measurements to describe daily tasks organization, postural demands, physical workload, and force exertions. ResultsTruck drivers' work was characterized by long working days ranging from 9.9 to 15.1 h (mean = 11.4 h), with half (49%) of the total working time spent behind the wheel. The overall workload as measured by relative cardiac strain (18.7% RHR) was found excessive for the long term given the shift duration. Peaks of heart rate in excess of 30 beats per minute above the daily average occurred mainly while operating valves and handling heavy hoses during gas deliveries. The task of delivering gas at a client's site required a moderate work rate on average (8.3 mlO2/kg/min) requiring 24.4% or maximum work capacity on average. ConclusionBased on multiple data sources, this study highlights the risks of over-exertion and of excessive physical fatigue in the truck drivers’ work that are coherent with the high prevalence of self-reported musculoskeletal pain in this group of workers.

Considerations on the optimization of natural gas deliveries by using automated control systems

The current paper aims at optimizing the natural gas deliveries from an underground storage by implementing automated control systems and fiscal measurement systems according to the harmonized European legislation in the area of metrology. In the first part, the authors have carried out an analysis regarding the state of the art at international level with regard to technical solutions for optimizing the deliveries of natural gas by means of a constriction element of a measurement panel. In the following, a software application was created for monitoring the parameters taken from the process gas chromatograph and transferring them to the flow computer by implementing software filters. The novelty element here is that it allows the trading of the nominated natural gas amount in a set period of time.

The concept of the Dolna Odra power plant by waterways

The paper presents the concept of supply for the Dolna Odra power plant by waterways transport. It was built in the 1970s, The power plant based on hard coal from Polish mines using rail transport. In view of the favorable location near the Eastern Odra, the possibility of supplying the plant by waterways was considered. This would require the construction of a water port. The tests carried out previously fully confirmed this possibility. An additional argument for the construction of the port are development plans based on the construction of power units powered by gas. In view of the entry into operation of the LNG Gas Terminal in Świnoujście, it is possible to supply the power plant with this gas by means of water transport of liquefied gas. It would be an alternative to constructing a land gas pipeline in connection with planned gas deliveries from the North Sea with the use of the Baltic-Pipe gas pipeline, scheduled for operation in 2022.

Contribution of Azerbaijan to the energy security of the European Union

Despite all progress connected with use of renewable energy sources it is widely known that fossil fuels will remain dominating in short - and medium-term prospects. Presently fossil fuels are made more, than three quarters of a global power mix, and in the next decade the level of their use will probably be the same. Among them there are crude oil and natural gas as widely used and globally sold energy resources which reserves unevenly distributed, are responsible to a large extent for energy security in the world. Therefore the relations between the European Union, one of the largest oil and gas consumers, and Azerbaijan, the supplier of energy whose location isn’t really far from the EU attract special attention of many politicians and creators of public opinion in Europe. The Southern Gas Corridor which ceremony of start of the first stage was held on May 29, 1918 in Baku is one of priority projects for the EU, and provides transportation of 10 billion cubic meters of the Azerbaijani gas from the Caspian region through Georgia and Turkey to Europe by 2020 will be the first real diversification of gas coming in from the East. At an initial stage, the gas extracted within the second phase of development of the Azerbaijani gas-condensate field “Shah Deniz” is considered as the main source for the corridor. At later stage other sources can be attracted to the project. Gas within the second stage of Shah Deniz field will be exported to Turkey and to the European markets by expansion of the South Caucasian gas pipeline and construction of Trans-Anatolian (TANAP) and Trans-Adriatic (TAP) pipelines. The project involves two EU member states, Italy and Greece, candidate countries, Turkey and Albania, and Azerbaijan, the EU strategic partner in energy. Four different types of countries were involved: member states, candidate countries, associated partners and future strategic partners. The EU supported Southern Gas Corridor is directed to curtail Russian energy leverage over Eastern and Southeastern European countries which are heavily reliant on Russian gas deliveries. It opens up the direct access for the land locked Caspian states, primarily Turkmenistan and Kazakhstan, to the European gas markets. This article describes development of the energy relations of the EU and the Republic of Azerbaijan. The energy needs and potential of these two partners are investigated and their main interests are defined. The main problems, opportunities and obstacles for power cooperation of the EU and Azerbaijan are discussed, and views of development of their principles of energy policy in the near future are considered.

Regional Gas Supply System Considered from the Standpoint of System Analysis and Regularities of its Functioning

Investigation of the structure and the functional patterns of the regional gas supply systems is necessary for addressing a number of operational tasks, the main ones being the following: preparing requisitions for the planned volume of gas deliveries, project design for development and reconstruction of gas supply systems and gas storage facilities, developing of functional gas tariffs for different groups of customers. The regional gas supply system is considered from the standpoint of system analysis and presented as a complex dynamic system consisting of several subsystems. The balance structure of gas consumption in the region for the ten-year period and the patterns of daily gas consumption in the region depending on the average daily outdoor temperature for the two-year period have been studied. It is discovered that the power economy, industry and agriculture account for the largest share in the total gas consumption. The values of correlation coefficients between the outdoor air temperature and gas flow rate according to the elements of the balance structure are calculated. For the daily values of gas consumption for the needs of the population and housing-and-communal services, the highest correlation coefficient between the studied characteristics R is noted = (–0,98‒(–0,96)). Analysis of the matching fields of daily gas consumption in the region to the daily average temperature over a given one-year timeframe made it possible to identified two key areas, viz.: the area of operation of the heating system and the area of positive temperatures (the cheating system is off). For each of the areas, the dependences of the daily gas flow rate on the temperature and the effect of temperature changes on the gas consumption alteration were determined. It was found out that the temperature range from 0 to 10 °C corresponds to the zone of uncertain state of the regional gas supply system, since two areas overlap in this zone, viz.: the area of operation of the heating system and the area of positive temperatures.

Russian Exports to EU in 2017: Growth Owing to Raw Materials and Metals

In 2017, Russia extended its market share in the European Union. EU imports from Russia went up from 119 to 145 bn euros, while Russia’s share in the overall European imports rose to 7.8% ( 0.9 p.p.). Such growth was due to rising prices on principal products of Russian export – fuel raw materials and metals. At the same time, the rising volume of natural gas deliveries hit 12% while deliveries of crude oil moved down 7%.

Short-term planning of liquefied natural gas deliveries

The ability of a supplier of liquefied natural gas (LNG) to deliver cargoes at desired times, while effectively managing a fleet of cryogenic vessels can significantly impact its profits. We investigate in this paper an LNG short-term delivery planning problem by considering mandatory cargoes as well as optional cargoes to select, along with the scheduling of a heterogeneous vessel fleet with controllable cruising speeds. Several technical constraints are accommodated including time windows, berth availability, bunkering restrictions, inventory, liquefaction terminal storage capacity, maximum waiting time, and planned maintenance restrictions. The objective is to maximize the net profit.We propose a mixed-integer programming formulation that includes a polynomial number of variables and constraints and accommodates all of the problem features. Also, we describe an optimization-based variable neighborhood search procedure that embeds the proposed compact formulation. To assess the quality of the generated solutions, we propose a second valid formulation with an exponential number of decision variables and we solve its linear programming relaxation using column generation. We provide the results of extensive computational results that were carried out on a set of large-scale set of realistic instances, with up to 62 vessels and 160 cargoes, provided by a major LNG producer. These results provide evidence that the proposed improvement procedure yields high-quality solutions.

European Union gas market development

The recently announced Energy Union by the European Commission is the most recent step in a series of developments aiming at integrating the European Union's (EU) gas markets in order to increase social welfare and security of gas supply. Based on simulations with a spatial partial equilibrium model, we analyze the changes in consumption, prices, and social welfare up to 2022 induced by the infrastructure expansions planned for this period, for the current market, as well as for three hypothetical scenarios: a halt of Russian gas deliveries to the EU during the winter period (RU-); a simultaneous doubling of available LNG (LNG+); and for Brexit, in which the United Kingdom market is isolated from the EU. In the case of the current market, the new infrastructure leads to a slight decrease of wholesale prices. Moreover, the potential of suppliers to exert market power decreases significantly, particularly in the Baltic states and Finland which are the most exposed countries today, and consumer surplus increases by 17.4% in the EU. In the RU- scenario, consumer surplus decreases across Europe, with the largest losses occurring in the Baltic states, as well as in Finland, Poland and Romania. In the LNG+ scenario, the gains in consumer surplus are primarily found in Western Europe. However, the planned infrastructure expansions distribute the gains and losses in consumer surplus more evenly over all EU member states, with the exception of Romania. In the Brexit scenario, consumer surplus decreases by up to 5.1% in the United Kingdom, 19.2% in Ireland, and 3.6% in the other EU countries. Our results allow us to distinguish three categories of projects: (i) Change in gas availability, leading to a general increase or decrease of social welfare all over the EU. The only project increasing social welfare in all scenarios in most countries is the Trans-Anatolian Gas Pipeline (TANAP); (ii) existing gas sources made available to additional countries. This leads to an increase of social welfare in the newly connected countries, while social welfare drops slightly everywhere else; (iii) projects with a marginal effect on the market. Most notably, the recently announced Turkish Stream falls into this category. Our results indicate that if all proposed infrastructure projects are realized, the EU's single market will become a reality in 2019 when Finland is interconnected to the EU markets. However, we also find that social welfare can only be increased significantly for the EU as a whole if new gas sources become accessible. At the same time, efficiency gains, albeit decreasing social welfare, help to improve the situation of consumers and decrease the dependency of the EU as a whole on external suppliers.

The Future of Russian Gas Exports

Disputes between Russia and Ukraine over the terms for gas transit and deliveries prompted Russia to accelerate development of new gas pipelines to Europe circumventing Ukraine, as well as exploring the potential for gas export to additional markets like Turkey and China. The current paper examines implications of Russia increasing its gas exports capacity by building Nord Stream 2 (to Germany), Turkish Stream (to Turkey and Greece) and Power of Siberia (to China). We find that these projects have moderate effect on Russian gas exports and also that the impact on the European natural gas market is minor. We have also examined the impact of new Russian export pipes if subsidies to large Russian natural gas consumers are halved, or there are no sales to, or transit via, Ukraine. We find that the effects of increased export capacity are much stronger in these cases. The main policy implication of our study is that the EU and Russia have common interest in supporting further integration of European markets, although for somewhat different reasons. Russia wants to sustain, or increase, its exports to Europe, whereas the EU wants to make sure that the market functions well and that no country becomes vulnerable to pressure from Russia.

Optimal planning of liquefied natural gas deliveries

We investigate the problem of designing an optimal annual delivery plan for Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG). This problem requires determining the long-term cargo delivery dates and the assignment of vessels to the cargoes while accommodating several constraints, including berth availability, liquefaction terminal inventory, planned maintenance, and bunkering requirements. We describe a novel mixed-integer programming formulation that captures important industry requirements and constraints with the objective of minimizing the vessel fleet size. A peculiar property of the proposed formulation is that it includes a polynomial number of variables and constraints and is, in our experience, computationally tractable for large problem instances using a commercial solver. Extensive computational runs demonstrate the efficacy of the proposed model for real instances provided by a major energy company that involve up to 118 cargoes and a 373-day planning horizon.