Modeling the transformation of the EU’s energy sector and its impact on carbon emissions in the context of an energy collapse

Abstract

The European Union relies heavily on energy imports from foreign countries, especially for oil and natural gas. This reliance on energy imports exposes the EU to the risks of price fluctuations and interruptions in supply. The likelihood of a complete halt in natural gas deliveries significantly rises following the onset of a hybrid economic war between the Russian Federation and the EU. The use of “dirty fossil fuels” is one of the options for immediate compensation for the natural gas deficit. Therefore, due to the increase in carbon emissions, an energy collapse can have a direct impact on the climate. The goal of the proposed research is to develop a model for the transformation of the EU’s energy sector and its impact on carbon emissions in the context of catastrophic changes in the structure of energy imports. During the research, a simulation model of the development of a three-sector energy market was established. The driver of changes in the model is the minimization of CO2 emissions. The modeling has shown that under normal conditions, the role of renewable energy sources gradually increases. Modeling the conditions of “gas blackmail” has revealed that the emerged deficit in the system will be primarily compensated by the use of dirty fossil fuels.