Ganges Brahmaputra Meghna Research Articles

Aligning the Global Delta Risk Index with SDG and SFDRR global frameworks to assess risk to socio-ecological systems in river deltas

River deltas globally are highly exposed and vulnerable to natural hazards and are often over-exploited landforms. The Global Delta Risk Index (GDRI) was developed to assess multi-hazard risk in river deltas and support decision-making in risk reduction interventions in delta regions. Disasters have significant impacts on the progress towards the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). However, despite the strong interlinkage between disaster risk reduction and sustainable development, global frameworks are still developed in isolation and actions to address them are delegated to different institutions. Greater alignment between frameworks would both simplify monitoring progress towards disaster risk reduction and sustainable development and increase capacity to address data gaps in relation to indicator-based assessments for both processes. This research aims at aligning the GDRI indicators with the SDGs and the Sendai Framework for Disaster and Risk Reduction (SFDRR). While the GDRI has a modular indicator library, the most relevant indicators for this research were selected through a delta-specific impact chain designed in consultation with experts, communities and stakeholders in three delta regions: the Red River and Mekong deltas in Vietnam and the Ganges–Brahmaputra–Meghna (GBM) delta in Bangladesh and India. We analyse how effectively the 143 indicators for the GDRI match (or not) the SDG and SFDRR global frameworks. We demonstrate the interconnections of the different drivers of risk to better inform risk management and in turn support delta-level interventions towards improved sustainability and resilience of these Asian mega-deltas.

Influence of Wave–Current Interaction on a Cyclone-Induced Storm Surge Event in the Ganges–Brahmaputra–Meghna Delta: Part 1—Effects on Water Level

The Ganges–Brahmaputra–Meghna Delta (GBMD) located in the head of the Bay of Bengal is regularly affected by severe tropical cyclones frequently. The GBMD covers the Bangladesh coast, which is one of the most vulnerable areas in the world due to cyclone-induced storm surges. More than 30% of the total country’s population lives on the Bangladesh coast. Hence, it is crucial to understand the underlying processes that modulate the storm surge height in the GBMD. A barotropic numerical 3D model setup is established by using Delft3D and SWAN to investigate a cyclone-induced storm surge event. The model is calibrated and validated for Cyclone Sidr in 2007 and applied to six idealized cyclonic scenarios. Numerical experiments with different coupling configurations are performed to distinguish the contribution of wind, tides, waves, and wave–current interactions (WCI) on the storm surge height. Results show that the wind-driven setup is the dominant contributor to the storm surge height during cyclonic events. Based on the tidal phase and wind direction, the interaction between tide and wind can increase or decrease the magnitude of the storm surge height. Finally, considering the wind-driven wave may increase the surge height up to 0.3 m along the coastline through a strong wave setup.

Monitoring bank-line movements of the rivers flowing across the Sundarbans using remote sensing and GIS techniques

Sundarbans is the largest mangrove forest decussated by a network of alluvial rivers upon the Ganges–Brahmaputra–Meghna basin outlined by recurrent bank erosion and accretion leading to channel pattern modification. Standing against various natural disasters, frequent bank-line changes associated with land loss or gain were observed along the main rivers of Sundarbans, causing major changes in river patterns over decades. Monitoring the morphological changes of the river is the main purpose of this research. The present study has undertaken steps to investigate the bank-line shifting of the eight main rivers located within Sundarbans over the past thirty years. The courses of main rivers from Baleswar to Bidyadhari were analyzed using a combined approach of remote sensing and GIS. Landsat images from USGS Earth Explorer were collected, sorted based on almost identical tidal conditions and digitized along the river banks to quantify and observe the dynamic behaviors of the river bank lines. Critical zones were observed in some parts of the river banks which were classified based on large lateral movements along both the left and right banks. The lateral movement of the river banks observed ranging between 160–1600 meters. Analysis has shown that most of the river banks have shifted land-ward which indicates loss of land except Pussur, Arpangasia and few regions of Baleswar River. The collected satellite data provided useful information on river bank configuration as well as changes in river morphology within the Sundarbans.

Strong trade-offs characterise water-energy-food related sustainable development goals in the Ganges–Brahmaputra–Meghna River basin

The United Nations’ sustainable development goals (SDGs) set ambitious policy targets for 2030 to overcome poverty while preserving the planet. These goals are not perfectly aligned; trade-offs emerge during implementation at regional and local levels, such as in a river basin. Here, we quantify important trade-offs between water, energy, and food-related SDGs in the Ganges–Brahmaputra–Meghna River basin, a climate vulnerability hotspot, using multi-objective optimisation based on detailed water resources and crop production modelling and accounting for uncertainties in the costs of water, labour, and land. The trade-off between food production and agricultural profit is strong; the amount of people fed would be reduced by more than two-thirds, were profitability maximized. However, we do see the potential to achieve higher profitability in agriculture against limited loss of food and hydropower production and limited impact on downstream environmental flows, although continued reliance on groundwater and energy, currently unsustainable, needs to be mitigated.

Simulation of freshwater transport network and salt flux in the Bangladesh delta

Circulation of saline water is important for maintaining water quality in the Ganges-Brahmaputra-Meghna (GBM) delta because of its vulnerability to the threat of climate change. We applied a numerical model to examine the volume and salt transports within the GBM delta, Bangladesh. To understand the components of salt water intrusion driven by tidal and subtidal (residual) transports, we selected 19 cross-sections to represent the complex delta circulation in a simplified network model. Our results show that over 82.51% of GBM river water drains through the eastern estuarine system (EES) in the wet season, increasing to 98.37% in the dry season. Residual transport can be comparable in size with the tidal transport in the wet season, and one order of magnitude smaller in the dry season. The western estuarine system (WES) experiences serious salinity intrusion in the dry season, and strong seasonal variability in both tidal and subtidal transport, with suppression of tide-driven transport observed during the wet season. Our results show the sub-channels area of the Lower Meghna River also faces the risk from salinity intrusion issues, as stronger tidal salt flux is estimated in the dry season. Tidal volume transport varies seasonally, corresponding to the variability of river discharge. A simplified solution by means of polynomial expansion was applied to describe the tidal propagation within river channels. Inland penetration of tidal energy is reduced with large river discharge, and additionally the propagation speed of the tidal wave increases in the wet season. Our analysis helps understand the response of the three estuarine systems to seasonal and tidal controls, and can be used to inform river management about the upstream-downstream linkages.

National-scale flood risk assessment using GIS and remote sensing-based hybridized deep neural network and fuzzy analytic hierarchy process models: a case of Bangladesh

Assessing flood risk is challenging due to complex interactions among flood susceptibility, hazard, exposure, and vulnerability parameters. This study presents a novel flood risk assessment framework by utilizing a hybridized deep neural network (DNN) and fuzzy analytic hierarchy process (AHP) models. Bangladesh was selected as a case study region, where limited studies examined flood risk at a national scale. The results exhibited that hybridized DNN and fuzzy AHP models can produce the most accurate flood risk map while comparing among 15 different models. About 20.45% of Bangladesh are at flood risk zones of moderate, high, and very high severity. The northeastern region, as well as areas adjacent to the Ganges–Brahmaputra–Meghna rivers, have high flood damage potential, where a significant number of people were affected during the 2020 flood event. The risk assessment framework developed in this study would help policymakers formulate a comprehensive flood risk management system.

Sustainability of the coastal zone of the Ganges-Brahmaputra-Meghna delta under climatic and anthropogenic stresses

The Ganges-Brahmaputra-Meghna (GBM) delta is one of the world's largest deltas. It is currently experiencing high rates of relative sea-level rise of about 5 mm/year, reflecting anthropogenic climate change and land subsidence. This is expected to accelerate further through the 21st Century, so there are concerns that the GBM delta will be progressively submerged. In this context, a core question is: can sedimentation on the delta surface maintain its elevation relative to sea level? This research seeks to answer this question by applying a two-dimensional flow and morphological model which is capable of handling dynamic interactions between the river and floodplain systems and simulating floodplain sedimentation under different flow-sediment regimes and anthropogenic interventions. We find that across a range of flood frequencies and adaptation scenarios (including the natural polder-free state), the retained volume of sediment varies between 22% and 50% of the corresponding sediment input. This translates to average rates of sedimentation on the delta surface of 5.5 mm/yr to 7.5 mm/yr. Hence, under present conditions, sedimentation associated with quasi-natural conditions can exceed current rates of relative sea-level rise and potentially create new land mass. These findings highlight that encouraging quasi-natural conditions through the widespread application of active sediment management measures has the potential to promote more sustainable outcomes for the GBM delta. Practical measures to promote include tidal river management, and appropriate combinations of cross-dams, bandal-like structures, and dredging.

Bangladesh's vulnerability to cyclonic coastal flooding

Abstract. In the Ganges–Brahmaputra–Meghna delta, covering most of Bangladesh, more than 165 million people live in low-lying coasts facing major extreme climatic events, such as cyclones. This article reviews the current scientific literature publications (2007–2020) in order to define vulnerability in the context of coastal Bangladesh facing cyclonic flooding. Based on this review, a new metric, called the socio-spatial vulnerability index (SSVI), is defined as function of both the probability of the cyclonic flood hazard and the sensitivity of delta inhabitants. The main result shows that the districts of Shariatpur, Chandpur and Barisal situated in the tidal floodplain of the Ganges–Brahmaputra–Meghna delta are in the fourth quartile, i.e., highest category, the most vulnerable areas. These districts are very densely populated (from 870 up to 1400 inhabitants per square kilometer) and exposed to inundation hazards with a large number of vulnerability factors. Finally, the delta's mouth was identified as a very vulnerable area to cyclonic flooding as well.

Physical controls and a priori estimation of raising land surface elevation across the southwestern Bangladesh delta using tidal river management

Abstract. The Ganges–Brahmaputra–Meghna delta in Bangladesh is one of the largest and most densely populated deltas in the world and is threatened by relative sea level rise (RSLR). Renewed sediment deposition through tidal river management (TRM), a controlled flooding with dike breach, inside the lowest parts of the delta polders (so-called beels) can potentially counterbalance the RSLR. The potential of TRM application in different beels across southwestern Bangladesh has been estimated previously but requires further exploration. Neither the seasonal and spatial variations in physical drivers nor the non-linear character of physical drivers and several sensitive parameters for sediment deposition have been taken into account so far. We used a 2D morphodynamic model to explore the physical controls of the following five parameters on the total sediment deposition inside the beels during TRM: river tidal range (TR), river suspended sediment concentration (SSC), inundation depth (ID), width of the inlet (IW), and surface area of the beel (BA). Our model results indicate that these five parameters and their interactions are significant for sediment deposition per day (SPD), where SSC and BA have a high impact, TR and ID have a moderate impact, and IW has a low impact on sediment deposition. Non-linear regression models (NLMs) were developed using the results of 2D models to quantify how sediment deposition inside the beels depends on these parameters. The NLMs have an average coefficient of determination of 0.74 to 0.77. Application of the NLMs to 234 beels in southwestern Bangladesh indicates that TRM operation in beels located closer to the sea will retain more sediment as a result of decreasing SSC further inland. Lower average land surface elevation is one of the reasons that the beels in the western part retain more sediment. Smaller beels have a higher potential to raise the land surface elevation due to the non-linear increase in sediment deposition per day (SPD) with beel area. Compartmentalization of larger beels may increase their potential to raise the land surface elevation. Thus, the length of time of the TRM application in a cyclic order will need to vary across the delta from 1 to multiple years to counterbalance RSLR, depending on the current beel land surface elevation and local TRM sediment accumulation rates. We found that operating TRM only during the monsoon season is sufficient to raise the land surface in 96 % and 80 % of all beels by more than 3 and 5 times the yearly RSLR, respectively. Applying TRM only seasonally offers huge advantages as to keeping the land available for agriculture during the rest of the year. The methodology presented here, applying regression models based on 2D morphodynamic modeling, may be used for the low-lying sinking deltas around the world to provide an a priori estimation of sediment deposition from controlled flooding to counterbalance RSLR.

The impact of climate change on land degradation along with shoreline migration in Ghoramara Island, India

Sea level rise (SLR) due to climate change is affecting the coastline, causing shoreline changes, the degradation of mangrove forests, and the destruction of coastal resources. This is the cause of a huge amount of mangrove degradation in many parts of the Ganges–Brahmaputra–Meghna delta. A total of 90% of people have been forced to migrate from the island due to extreme weather conditions. In this study, remote sensing (RS) and geographic information system (GIS) techniques were used for LULC change and shoreline shift analyses of Ghoramara Island. LULC classification was carried out using thirty years of Landsat datasets with intervals of ten years (1990 and 2000) and intervals of five years (2005, 2010, 2015, and 2020). The classification was conducted using a supervised classification method. The field survey data were used to validate the classification results. The total area was reduced from 608 ha (in 1990) to 375 ha (in 2020) due to the extreme weather conditions. Around 39% of the land area was found to be degraded due to shoreline changes. The LULC classes of built-up area, agricultural land, water bodies, and vegetation were found to have lost around 62.345 ha, 63.328 ha, 0.836 ha, and 113.241 ha, respectively, from the year 1990–2020. It was observed that the shoreline shifted towards the north-east, north-west, and southern directions in the last thirty years. This study identified the land use changes due to shoreline shifting and proposed the appropriate to achieve the sustainable development of Ghoramara Island.

Flood risk of embanked areas and potential use of dredge spoils as mitigation measures in the southwest region of the Ganges–Brahmaputra–Meghna Delta, Bangladesh

AbstractIn the 1960s, earthen embankments, locally known as polders, were first constructed in the Ganges–Brahmaputra–Meghna (GBM) Delta with the intention of protecting agricultural lands from salinity; however, unintended consequences of the barriers have negatively impacted the region. Once‐active distributary channels have morphed into terminal, headless tidal channels as the sediment‐laden water that was once dispersed across the tidal delta plain is now restricted by embankments. Elevation loss within embankments and channel siltation adjacent to embankments are deleterious consequences of hard engineering and pose significant flood risk when effective sea level rise is considered. The purpose of this study is to assess the current and future flood risks of the embanked areas in the southwest region of the GBM Delta and to expand on the potential for local‐based solutions (e.g. mud plinths and embankments). We propose a novel source of material for these structures—repurposed dredge spoils.Project sites are along terminal tidal channels, proximal to coastal towns in the southwest region of the delta. We calculate here that as the effective sea level rise will continue to increase in the years to come, the flood risk will correspondingly increase (>67%). Geospatial analyses reveal that several prominent tidal channels have reduced in width over the last 30+ years, and recent dredging operations removed ~1.7 × 106 m3 of sediment infill. Using conservative values, we estimate that the dredge spoils could be used to elevate ~20 000 houses on mud plinths or raise 18 km of existing embankments. On a delta‐wide scale, if all infilled tidal channels were dredged to 10% of their original widths, ~547 000 houses could be raised above the flood levels and ~500 km of embankments could be elevated. With a mean household population of 4.3 people, repurposing dredge spoils can positively impact ~2.4 million people within the vulnerable southwest region of the GBM Delta.

The Stability and Suitability of the Bhasan Char Island as an Accommodation for the Forcibly Displaced Myanmar Nationals (FDMN)

Assessing the dynamics of Bhasan Char is very crucial, as the Government of Bangladesh (GoB) has recently selected the island as the accommodation of the FDMN. This article critically evaluates the spatiotemporal morphological variations due to erosion, accretion, and subsurface deformation of the island through multi-temporal geospatial and geophysical data analysis, groundwater quality-quantity, and also determines the nature and rate of changes from 2003 to 2020. This is the first study in this island on which multi-temporal Landsat Satellite Imagery and seismic data have been used with geospatial techniques with Digital Shoreline Analysis System (DSAS) and petrel platform, respectively. The analysis of satellite images suggests that the island first appeared in 2003 in the Bay of Bengal, then progressively evolved to the present stable condition. Significant changes have taken place in the morphological and geographical conditions of the island since its inception. Since 2012, the island has been constantly accreted by insignificant erosion. It receives tidally influenced fluvial sediments from the Ganges-Brahmaputra-Meghna (GBM) river system and the sedimentary accretion, in this case, is higher than the erosion due to relatively weaker wave action and longshore currents. It has gained approximately 68 km2 area, mostly in the northern part and because of erosion in the south. Although the migration of the Bhasan Char was ubiquitous during 2003–2012, it has been concentrated in a small area to the east since 2018. The net shoreline movements (NSM) suggest that the length of the shoreline enlarged significantly by around 39 km in 2020 from its first appearance. Seismic and GPS data clearly indicate that the island is located on the crest of a slowly uplifting low-amplitude anticline, which may result in a stable landform around the island. Based on the analysis of historical data, it has been assessed that the current configuration of Bhasan Char would not be severely affected by 10–15-foot-high cyclone. Therefore, FDMN rehabilitation here might be safer that would be a good example for future geo-environmental assessment for any areas around the world for rehabilitation of human in remote and vulnerable island. The findings of this research will facilitate the government’s decision to rehabilitate FDMN refugees to the island and also contribute to future research in this area.

Dwindling Coastal Fisheries Biodiversity of Bangladesh: The Causes and Effects

Being a sub-tropical nation in the Ganges-Brahmaputra-Meghna (GBM) Delta with long shoreline along the Bay of Bengal, the coast of Bangladesh is blessed with rich living resources. The country has a coastline of about 710 km and an Exclusive Economic Zone of 121,110 km2. Bangladesh’s coastline extends from St. Martin’s living coral island in the south-east to the Sundarbans-world’s largest adjoining mangrove-in the south-west. The coast holds diverse habitats- coral, sandy, muddy and rocky beaches, salt marshes, grass beds and mangroves - with uniquely diversified faunal configurations. So far, 730 fishes, 150 crustaceans and 336 mollusks have been recorded from the coastal waters of Bangladesh, apart from a number of cephalopods, sea turtles, reptiles, and mammals. Increasing population, destruction of mangroves, pollution, overfishing, and illegal/destructive fishing using set bag nets and monofilament gillnets and an extensive collection of shrimp larvae are the root causes of biodiversity loss in the coast. Already, the near-shore fish stocks are overexploited and catch per unit fishing effort is falling and many shrimp and fish stocks are in the decline. The percentage contribution of marine segment in the fisheries sector of the country is decreasing every year. About 28% of the coastal fishes assessed by IUCN (International Union of Conservation of Nature) are now placed under IUCN Red List of ‘threatened species’. To ensure sustainable fisheries management, a number of laws have been put in place, but the implementation of these laws and regulations is constrained due to conflicts and non-compliance by the stakeholders. Hence, Bangladesh needs a robust legal and policy framework for conservation and sustainable utilization of the coastal resources. Establishment of sanctuaries and marine protected areas following a co-management approach can achieve notable success in protecting coastal biodiversity. Strict enforcement of legal measures aimed at protection of mangroves, development of eco-coastal tourism and social safeguards for resource conservation and management, is needed for long-term and sustainable management of coastal biodiversity of Bangladesh.

Coastal development in southwestern Bangladesh: understanding the interplay between storms and sea level rise

Sea-level rise and sediment supply have influenced coastal morphology and sedimentation on Bangladesh’s southwestern Ganges‐Brahmaputra‐Meghna (GBM) delta coast. Satellite images and geological core from the Haringhata coastal region were analyzed to explain the morphological changes and to understand the influences on deposits. The results derived from satellite images indicate that the southern coastline experienced a retreat that ranges between 2.3 and 2.9 km. In contrast, the eastern and western coastline advanced. The erosion and accretion ratio was 0.29 from 1977 to 1989, while the ratio was higher 2.90–4.77 from 1989 to 2020. Two sedimentary facies were identified using 130 cm thick successions. A parallel to wavy laminated bluish gray mud facies of deeper part was deposited in a marine-influenced environment. A planar to hummocky cross stratified, gray to grayish white silty sand facies of storm overwash deposits overlies the mud facies with sharp contacts. Unimodal to bimodal grain distributions of sandy sediments suggest two sources: sand derived from the beach and mud carried by adjacent tidal rivers and resuspended offshore sediment. Coastline dynamics and sedimentation of the area were influenced by inequality of accommodation and sediment supply ratio in the river mouth. This occurs due to sea-level rise and deficit in upstream water and sediment discharge. Morphological change along the southwestern GBM delta coast was not only caused by wave energy, but also by rising sea levels which shifted sediment accommodation space landward.

Impact of Indian Ocean surface temperature gradient reversals on the Indian Summer Monsoon

Indian Summer Monsoon (ISM) precipitation is the main determinant of livelihood in a densely populated world region. The interannual variability of the ISM is influenced by several modes of climate variability, including anomalous seasonal sea surface temperature (SST) gradient reversals between the eastern, western, and northeastern Indian Ocean. With global warming, the frequency of zonal and meridional Indian Ocean's SST gradient changes is projected to increase but its impact on the ISM is debated. Here we present a 25,000-year proxy record of SST and inferred Ganges-Brahmaputra-Meghna (GBM) River runoff that provides a spatially integrated measure of ISM precipitation changes. This record indicates a monotonic deglacial strengthening of the ISM system when the SST gradient between the Bay of Bengal surface water and the eastern equatorial Indian Ocean was reversed. We posit that the reversal in the meridional SST gradient reduced the impact of Heinrich Event 1 and Younger Dryas on the low elevation part of the ISM domain. Furthermore, the proxy record shows that the strongest Holocene ISM strengthening occurred between 7900±470 and 5700±360 years before present, coinciding with and causally linked to the reversal of the Indian Ocean zonal SST gradient and ensuing changes in the wind fields, a sequence of events that is inferred from and supported by the results of our climate simulation. Our study demonstrates that changes in the Indian Ocean's zonal and meridional thermal gradient strongly shaped the timing of Holocene monsoon strengthening and the response of ISM to the last deglacial freshwater forcing.

Persistence of depositional features in a strongly seasonal, tide-dominated delta

The Ganges-Brahmaputra-Meghna (GBM) Delta is one of the largest deltas in the world, covering more than 100,000 km2. The GBM River system transports over one billion tons of sediment annually and delivers ∼750 million tons to the Bay of Bengal, ∼25% of which is advected by tides into the fluvially abandoned western delta plain. Fluvial sediment and water discharge are controlled by the southwest Asian monsoon, with wet season discharge rates exceeding those of the dry season by a factor of five. The Sundarbans National Forest (SNF) is located within the GBM Delta and, covering more than 10,000 km2, is the world's largest continuous mangrove stand. The present rate of sediment delivery allows the SNF platform elevation to keep pace with regional sea level rise, but India's National River Linking Project (NRLP) could decrease the suspended sediment loads of Ganges and Brahmaputra Rivers by 39–75% and 9–25% respectively, and thus may change future sedimentation. In this study, we examine whether sediment stored in the tidal channels could serve as an additional source for platform nourishment, if resuspended and delivered to the mangrove platform throughout the year. Over two field seasons, 70 shallow (<50 cm) sediment cores were collected from the channel banks, imaged using x-radiography to observe fine scale changes in depositional characteristics on tidal channel banks, and subsampled for textural and geochemical analyses. In more than half of the cores examined there is no change in the style of the laminations, suggesting that the processes controlling deposition remain constant throughout the year, despite the seasonal change in the external sediment supply. Cores where the depth of laminations decreases from wet to dry season demonstrate that sediment is being eroded from the banks and advected elsewhere, with the mangrove platform a likely sink. Over 70% of cores showed surface (0–2 cm) grain sizes coarsening from the wet to the dry season, which could be the product of the winnowing of fine sediments as overall sediment supply decreases and material with lower bulk density is preferentially taken away. The findings from textural analysis were further supported by total organic carbon (TOC) profiles, which also indicate constant reworking of sediment on the channel banks throughout the year.

Tracing the Origin of the South Asian Summer Monsoon Precipitation and Its Variability Using a Novel Lagrangian Framework

AbstractThe water sources and their variability responsible for the South Asian summer monsoon precipitation were analyzed using Lagrangian atmospheric water-mass trajectories. The results indicated that evaporated waters from the central and south Indian Ocean are the major contributors to the South Asian summer monsoon rainfall, followed by the contribution from the local recycling (precipitated water that evapotranspirated from the South Asian landmass), the Arabian Sea, remote sources, and the Bay of Bengal. It was also found that although the direct contribution originating from the Bay of Bengal is small, it still provides a pathway for the atmospheric water that comes from other regions. This pathway is hence only crossing over the Bay of Bengal. The outcomes further revealed that the evaporated waters originating from the central and south Indian Ocean are responsible for the net precipitation over the coastal regions of the Ganges–Brahmaputra–Meghna Delta, northeast India, Myanmar, the foothills of the Himalayas, and central-east India. Evaporated waters from the Arabian Sea are mainly contributing to the rainfall over the western coast and west-central India. Summer monsoon precipitation due to the local recycling is primarily restricted to the Indo-Gangetic plain. No recycled precipitation was observed over the mountain chain along the west coast of India (Western Ghats). The month-to-month precipitation variation over South Asia was analyzed to be linked with the Somali low-level jet variability. The interannual variability of the South Asian summer monsoon precipitation was found to be mainly controlled by the atmospheric waters that were sourced and traveled from the central and south Indian Ocean.

Geomorphic change in the Ganges–Brahmaputra–Meghna delta

More than 70% of large deltas are under threat from rising sea levels, subsidence and anthropogenic interferences, including the Ganges–Brahmaputra–Meghna (GBM) delta, the Earth’s largest and most populous delta system. The dynamic geomorphology of this delta is often overlooked in assessments of its vulnerability; consequently, development plans and previous management investments have been undermined by unanticipated geomorphic responses. In this Review, we describe GBM delta dynamics, examining these changes through the Drivers–Pressures–States–Impacts–Responses framework. Since the early Holocene, the GBM delta has evolved in response to a combination of tectonics, geology, changing river discharge and sea level rise, but the dynamics observed today are driven by a complex interplay of anthropogenic interferences and natural background processes. Contemporary geomorphic processes such as shoreline change, channel migration, sedimentation and subsidence can increase flooding and erosion, impacting biodiversity, ground and water contamination and local community livelihoods. Continued human disturbances to the GBM delta, such as curtailing sediment supplies, modifying channels and changing land use, could have a more direct influence on the future geomorphic balance of the delta than anthropogenic climate change and sea level rise. In order to contribute to long-term delta sustainability, adaptation responses must therefore be informed by an understanding of geomorphic processes, requiring increased transdisciplinary research on future delta dynamics at centennial timescales and collaboration across all governing bodies and stakeholders.

Comparative numerical simulation of storm surge inundation characteristics along the dynamic east coast of the Meghna estuary in Bangladesh

ABSTRACT Tropical cyclone (TC) is considered as the most dangerous and devastating hydrometeorological natural hazards in the coastal regions. On average, one severe cyclone strikes Bangladesh coast every three years. On the other hand, under significant sediment discharge from the Ganges-Brahmaputra-Meghna (GBM) River system (1.0 ~ 2.4 billion tons/year), Bengal delta dramatically changes its shorelines and bathymetry and has been gaining about 400 km2 land at the eastern part of the Meghna Estuary for the last twenty-seven (1991–2018) years. This study aims to investigate the impact of morphological changes on storm surge induced inundation characteristics on the newly reclaimed coastal lands along with different hypothetical land elevations and Sea level Rise (SLR) scenarios. Five different cyclone tracks are used to generate different cyclonic scenarios with the same strength as TC-1991. This study involves the application of the Delft-3D numerical model and ArcGIS to simulate, calculate, and visualize inundation. The results show that inundation heights strongly depend on the cyclone tracks even if the strength (wind speed and pressure drop) remains the same for all tracks. Also, with the accretion of lands, the inundation depth and extent will decrease at the mainland but increase at the accreted lands and the offshore islands, while with higher land elevation of the accreted lands, it will decrease. With SLRs, the offshore islands and accreted lands are more susceptible than the mainland. The impact of the all over land along with a 1.0 m Sea Level Rise (SLR) on the inundation depth and extent pattern will strongly depend on the elevation of the accreted lands.

Precipitation Trends in the Ganges-Brahmaputra-Meghna River Basin, South Asia: Inconsistency in Satellite-Based Products

The Ganges-Brahmaputra-Meghna (GBM) river basin is the world’s third largest. Literature show that changes in precipitation have a significant impact on climate, agriculture, and the environment in the GBM. Two satellite-based precipitation products, Precipitation Estimation from Remotely Sensed Information using Artificial Neural Networks-Climate Data Record (PERSIANN-CDR) and Multi-Source Weighted-Ensemble Precipitation (MSWEP), were used to analyze and compare precipitation trends over the GBM as a whole and within 34 pre-defined hydrological sub-basins separately for the period 1983–2019. A non-parametric Modified Mann-Kendall test was applied to determine significant trends in monsoon (June–September) and pre-monsoon (March–May) precipitation. The results show an inconsistency between the two precipitation products. Namely, the MSWEP pre-monsoon precipitation trend has significantly increased (Z-value = 2.236, p = 0.025), and the PERSIANN-CDR monsoon precipitation trend has significantly decreased (Z-value = −33.071, p &lt; 0.000). However, both products strongly indicate that precipitation has recently declined in the pre-monsoon and monsoon seasons in the eastern and southern regions of the GBM river basin, agreeing with several previous studies. Further work is needed to identify the reasons behind inconsistent decreasing and increasing precipitation trends in the GBM river basin.