Ganges-Brahmaputra-Meghna Delta Research Articles

Modeling complex flow dynamics of fluvial floods exacerbated by sea level rise in the Ganges–Brahmaputra–Meghna Delta

Global warming is likely to exacerbate future fluvial floods in the world’s mega-delta regions due to both changing climate and rising sea levels. However, the effects of sea level rise (SLR) on fluvial floods in such regions have not been taken into account in current global assessments of future flood risk, due to the difficulties in modeling channel bifurcation and the backwater effect. We used a state-of-the-art global river routing model to demonstrate how these complexities contribute to future flood hazard associated with changing climate and SLR in the world’s largest mega-delta region, the Ganges-Brahmaputra-Meghna Delta. The model demonstrated that flood water in the main channels flows into tributaries through bifurcation channels, which resulted in an increase in inundation depth in deltaic regions. We found that there were large areas that experienced an increase in inundation depth and period not directly from the SLR itself but from the backwater effect of SLR, and the effect propagated upstream to locations far from the river mouth. Projections under future climate scenarios as well as SLR indicated that exposure to fluvial floods will increase in the last part of the 21st century, and both SLR and channel bifurcation make meaningful contributions.

Subsidence and human influences in mega deltas: The case of the Ganges–Brahmaputra–Meghna

Relative sea/land level changes are fundamental to people living in deltas. Net subsidence is complex and attributed to tectonics, compaction, sedimentation and anthropogenic causes. It can have severe impacts and needs to be quantified and where possible (for subsidence due to anthropogenic causes) avoided. For the highly populated Ganges–Brahmaputra–Meghna delta, a large range of net subsidence rates are described in the literature, yet the reasons behind this wide range of values are poorly understood. This paper documents and analyses rates of subsidence (for publications until 2014) and relates these findings to human influences (development).205 point measurements of net subsidence were found, reported in 24 studies. Reported measurements were often repetitive in multiple journals, with some lacking detail as to precise location, cause and method, questioning reliability of the rate of subsidence. Rates differed by locality, methodology and period of measurement. Ten different measurement methods were recorded, with radio-carbon dating being the most common. Temporal and spatially, rates varied between −1.1mm/yr (i.e. uplift) and 43.8mm/yr. The overall mean reported rate was 5.6mm/yr, and the overall median 2.9mm/yr, with 7.3mm/yr representing one standard deviation. These rates were reduced if inaccurate or vague records were omitted. The highest rates were recorded in the Sylhet Plateau, Dhaka and Kolkata. Highest rates were recorded in the last 1000years, where the mean increased to 8.8mm/yr and a standard deviation of 7.5mm/yr. This could be partly due to shorter-term measurement records, or anthropogenic influence as multiple high rates are often found in urban settings. Continued development may cause rates to locally increase (e.g. due to groundwater abstraction and/or drainage). Improved monitoring is required over a wider area, to determine long-term trends, particularly as short-term records are highly variable. Focus in regions where wide spread development is occurring or is expected would be advantageous.

Effects of tectonic deformation and sea level on river path selection: Theory and application to the Ganges-Brahmaputra-Meghna River Delta

The set of active rivers of the Ganges-Brahmaputra-Meghna (GBM) Delta in Bangladesh overlies an active plate boundary that continually modifies the landscape of the delta by deformation. The response of rivers to spatially variable subsidence, from tectonic tilting or other causes, has been thought to include preferred occupation of regions of higher subsidence. In this paper, we develop further the theoretical framework for analysis of the interplay of tectonics and river dynamics, and apply this model to conditions in the GBM Delta. First, we examine the overall competition between variable subsidence and channel dynamics, and find that tilting in Bangladesh should be strong enough to influence river path selection. We then present new theory for the effect of subsidence that is spatially (not temporally) variable. We find a constant residence timescale on different parts of the delta, and differing frequencies of avulsion to these locations, and describe the effects of incision or floodplain deposition on these quantities. We present estimates of the channel residence timescale of the Jamuna (Brahmaputra) River reconstructed from the lithology, provenance, and dating of sediment cores. We apply our framework to a map of regional subsidence to predict the effects on avulsion for the Jamuna River. Comparison between our predicted (2150 years) and our stratigraphically based estimates of avulsion timescale (1800 years) shows encouraging consistency.

Modelling the increased frequency of extreme sea levels in the Ganges-Brahmaputra-Meghna delta due to sea level rise and other effects of climate change.

Coastal flooding due to storm surge and high tides is a serious risk for inhabitants of the Ganges-Brahmaputra-Meghna (GBM) delta, as much of the land is close to sea level. Climate change could lead to large areas of land being subject to increased flooding, salinization and ultimate abandonment in West Bengal, India, and Bangladesh. IPCC 5th assessment modelling of sea level rise and estimates of subsidence rates from the EU IMPACT2C project suggest that sea level in the GBM delta region may rise by 0.63 to 0.88 m by 2090, with some studies suggesting this could be up to 0.5 m higher if potential substantial melting of the West Antarctic ice sheet is included. These sea level rise scenarios lead to increased frequency of high water coastal events. Any effect of climate change on the frequency and severity of storms can also have an effect on extreme sea levels. A shelf-sea model of the Bay of Bengal has been used to investigate how the combined effect of sea level rise and changes in other environmental conditions under climate change may alter the frequency of extreme sea level events for the period 1971 to 2099. The model was forced using atmospheric and oceanic boundary conditions derived from climate model projections and the future scenario increase in sea level was applied at its ocean boundary. The model results show an increased likelihood of extreme sea level events through the 21st century, with the frequency of events increasing greatly in the second half of the century: water levels that occurred at decadal time intervals under present-day model conditions occurred in most years by the middle of the 21st century and 3-15 times per year by 2100. The heights of the most extreme events tend to increase more in the first half of the century than the second. The modelled scenarios provide a case study of how sea level rise and other effects of climate change may combine to produce a greatly increased threat to life and property in the GBM delta by the end of this century.

Research highlights: modelling to assess climate change impacts and promote development.

We highlight four recent articles on biophysical modelling for the Ecosystem Services and Poverty Alleviation (ESPA) Deltas project in the Ganges-Brahmaputra-Meghna (GBM) delta system. These publications are part of a themed collection in Environmental Science: Processes & Impacts and contribute to a larger body of collaborative work that aims to assess the impacts of changing climate, policy, and development efforts on vulnerable populations in the GBM delta.

A review of arsenic and its impacts in groundwater of the Ganges–Brahmaputra–Meghna delta, Bangladesh

Arsenic in drinking water is the single most important environmental issue facing Bangladesh; between 35 and 77 million of its 156 million inhabitants are considered to be at risk from drinking As-contaminated water. This dominates the list of stress factors affecting health, livelihoods and the ecosystem of the delta region. There is a vast literature on the subject so this review provides a filter of the more important information available on the topic. The arsenic problem arises from the move in the 1980s and 1990s by international agencies to construct tube wells as a source of water free of pathogens, groundwater usually considered a safe source. Since arsenic was not measured during routine chemical analysis and also is difficult to measure at low concentrations it was not until the late 1990s that the widespread natural anomaly of high arsenic was discovered and confirmed. The problem was exacerbated by the fact that the medical evidence of arsenicosis only appears slowly. The problem arises in delta regions because of the young age of the sediments deposited by the GBM river system. The sediments contain minerals such as biotite which undergo slow "diagenetic" reactions as the sediments become compacted, and which, under the reducing conditions of the groundwater, release in the form of toxic As(3+). The problem is restricted to sediments of Holocene age and groundwater of a certain depth (mainly 30-150 m), coinciding with the optimum well depth. The problem is most serious in a belt across southern Bangladesh, but within 50 m of the coast the problem is only minor because of use of deep groundwater; salinity in shallow groundwater here is the main issue for drinking water. The Government of Bangladesh adopted a National Arsenic Policy and Mitigation Action Plan in 2004 for providing arsenic safe water to all the exposed population, to provide medical care for those who have visible symptoms of arsenicosis. There is as yet no national monitoring program in place. Various mitigation strategies have been tested, but generally the numerous small scale technological remedies have proved unworkable at village level. The current statistics show that use of deep groundwater (below 150 m) is the main source of arsenic mitigation over most of the arsenic affected areas as well as rainwater harvesting in certain location.

A first look at the influence of anthropogenic climate change on the future delivery of fluvial sediment to the Ganges-Brahmaputra-Meghna delta.

We employ a climate-driven hydrological water balance and sediment transport model (HydroTrend) to simulate future climate-driven sediment loads flowing into the Ganges-Brahmaputra-Meghna (GBM) mega-delta. The model was parameterised using high-quality topographic data and forced with daily temperature and precipitation data obtained from downscaled Regional Climate Model (RCM) simulations for the period 1971-2100. Three perturbed RCM model runs were selected to quantify the potential range of future climate conditions associated with the SRES A1B scenario. Fluvial sediment delivery rates to the GBM delta associated with these climate data sets are projected to increase under the influence of anthropogenic climate change, albeit with the magnitude of the increase varying across the two catchments. Of the two study basins, the Brahmaputra's fluvial sediment load is predicted to be more sensitive to future climate change. Specifically, by the middle part of the 21(st) century, our model results suggest that sediment loads increase (relative to the 1981-2000 baseline period) over a range of between 16% and 18% (depending on climate model run) for the Ganges, but by between 25% and 28% for the Brahmaputra. The simulated increase in sediment flux emanating from the two catchments further increases towards the end of the 21(st) century, reaching between 34% and 37% for the Ganges and between 52% and 60% for the Brahmaputra by the 2090s. The variability in these changes across the three climate change simulations is small compared to the changes, suggesting they represent a significant increase. The new data obtained in this study offer the first estimate of whether and how anthropogenic climate change may affect the delivery of fluvial sediment to the GBM delta, informing assessments of the future sustainability and resilience of one of the world's most vulnerable mega-deltas. Specifically, such significant increases in future sediment loads could increase the resilience of the delta to sea-level rise by giving greater potential for vertical accretion. However, these increased sediment fluxes may not be realised due to uncertainties in the monsoon related response to climate change or other human-induced changes in the catchment: this is a subject for further research.

Construction and Maintenance of the Ganges-Brahmaputra-Meghna Delta: Linking Process, Morphology, and Stratigraphy

We present a review of the processes, morphology, and stratigraphy of the Ganges-Brahmaputra-Meghna delta (GBMD), including insights gained from detailed elevation data. The review shows that the GBMD is best characterized as a composite system, with different regions having morphologic and stratigraphic attributes of an upland fluvial fan delta; a lowland, backwater-reach delta; a downdrift tidal delta plain; and an offshore subaqueous-delta clinoform. These distinct areas of upland and lowland fluvial reaches and tidal dominance vary in time and space, and we distinguish late-Holocene phases of delta construction, maintenance, and decline similar to delta-lobe cycling in other systems. The overall stability of the GBMD landform, relative to many deltas, reflects the efficient, widespread dispersal of sediment by the large monsoon discharge and high-energy tides that affect this region. However, we do identify portions of the delta that are in decline and losing elevation relative to sea level owing to insufficient sediment delivery. These areas, some of which are well inland of the coast, represent those most at risk to the continued effect of sea-level rise.

Recent trends in groundwater levels in a highly seasonal hydrological system: the Ganges-Brahmaputra-Meghna Delta

Abstract. Groundwater levels in shallow aquifers underlying Asian mega-deltas are characterized by strong seasonal variations associated with monsoon rainfall. To resolve trend and seasonal components in weekly groundwater levels in the Ganges-Brahmaputra-Meghna (GBM) Delta, we apply a nonparametric seasonal-trend decomposition procedure (STL) to observations compiled from 1985–2005 in Bangladesh. Seasonality dominates observed variance in groundwater levels but declining groundwater levels (>1 m/yr) are detected in urban and peri-urban areas around Dhaka as well as in north-central, northwestern, and southwestern parts of the country (0.1–0.5 m/yr) where intensive abstraction of groundwater is conducted for dry-season rice cultivation. Rising groundwater levels (0.5–2.5 cm/yr) are observed in the estuarine and southern coastal regions. This novel application of the STL procedure reveals, for the first time, the unsustainability of irrigation supplied by shallow aquifers in some areas (e.g., High Barind Tract) of the GBM Delta and the hydrological impact of potential seawater intrusion of coastal aquifers associated with sea-level rise. Our findings provide important insight into the hydrological impacts of groundwater-fed irrigation and sea-level rise in other Asian mega-deltas where monitoring data are limited.

Spatial relationship of groundwater arsenic distribution with regional topography and water-table fluctuations in the shallow aquifers in Bangladesh

The present study has examined the relationship of groundwater arsenic (As) levels in alluvial aquifers with topographic elevation, slope, and groundwater level on a large basinal-scale using high-resolution (90 m × 90 m) Shuttle Radar Topography Mission (SRTM) digital elevation model and water-table data in Bangladesh. Results show that high As (>50 μg/l) tubewells are located in low-lying areas, where mean surface elevation is approximately 10 m. Similarly, high As concentrations are found within extremely low slopes (<0.7°) in the country. Groundwater elevation (weekly measured by Bangladesh Water Development Board) was mapped using water-table data from 950 shallow (depth <100 m) piezometers distributed over the entire country. The minimum, maximum and mean groundwater elevation maps for 2003 were generated using Universal Kriging interpolation method. High As tubewells are located mainly in the Ganges–Brahmaputra–Meghna delta, Sylhet Trough, and recent floodplains, where groundwater elevation in shallow aquifers is low with a mean value of 4.5 m above the Public Works Datum (PWD) level. Extremely low groundwater gradients (0.01–0.001 m/km) within the GBM delta complex hinder groundwater flow and cause slow flushing of aquifers. Low elevation and gentle slope favor accumulation of finer sediments, As-carrying iron-oxyhydroxide minerals, and abundant organic matter within floodplains and alluvial deposits. At low horizontal hydraulic gradients and under reducing conditions, As is released in groundwater by microbial activity, causing widespread contamination in the low-lying deltaic and floodplain areas, where As is being recycled with time due to complex biogeochemical processes.

Arsenic release from biotite into a Holocene groundwater aquifer in Bangladesh

Abstract Continuous core sediments (to a depth of 90.1 m) taken at a transitional area of Holocene and Pleistocene deposits in Sonargaon, Bangladesh were characterized for their mineralogy and chemistry. Among the sediments of the lower part of the Holocene aquifer (depth: 18–29 m), where most domestic wells are installed, As is mostly fixed in biotite and organic phases. A positive correlation of As concentration with those of Al and Fe but not that of total organic C clearly suggests that biotite is a primary source of As. Although microbial reduction–dissolution of As-containing Fe oxyhydroxides is thought to cause As-enriched groundwater in the Ganges–Brahmaputra–Meghna delta plain, the authors conclude that chemical weathering of biotite is the primary formation mechanism and prevailing reducing conditions contribute to the expansion of As-enriched groundwater in the study area.

Climate and Sea Level Change: Observations, Projections and Implications

Part I. Overview: 1. Climate and sea level change: a synthesis Part II. Data: 2. Mean sea level changes in the recent past 3. Recent global sea levels and land levels 4. Improving sea level data 5. Global absolute sea level: the Hawaiian and US Atlantic coast-Bermuda regional networks 6. Long-term changes in eustatic sea level Part III. Projections: 7. Future changes in global mean temperature and sea level 8. Possible future contributions to sea level change from small glaciers 9. Possible changes in the mass balance of the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets and their effects on sea level 10. The Antarctic Peninsula contribution to future sea level rise 11. Model projections of CO2-induced equilibrium climate change 12. Observational data on the relationships between climatic change and the frequency and magnitude of severe tropical storms Part IV. Impacts and Case Studies: 13. Geographic information systems and future sea level rise 14. The storm surge problem and possible effects of sea level changes on coastal flooding in the Bay of Bengal 15. Geographical complexities of detailed impact assessment for the Ganges-Brahmaputra Meghna delta of Bangladesh 16. Possible impacts of, and adjustments to, sea level rise the cases of Bangladesh and Egypt 17. Impacts of sea level rise on coastal systems with special emphasis son the Mississippi River deltaic plain 18. Sea level rise: assessing the problems 19. Adjustment to greenhouse gas induced sea level rise on the Norfolk coast - a case study 20. What will happen to The Netherlands if sea level rise accelerates? 21. The vulnerability of the east coast of South America to sea level rise and possible adjustment strategies 22. Future sea level rise in Hong Kong and possible environmental effects Part V. Summaries and Recommendations: 23. Sea level changes 24. Severe tropical storms and storm surges 25. Regional effects of sea level rise.