Gambling Fallacies Research Articles

Gambling-related attitudes and dimensional structure of the GABS-15 in outpatient addiction care patients: associations with gambling disorder.

Individuals with gambling disorder (GD) harbor cognitive distortions and dysfunctional beliefs about gambling that may foster problematic gambling behaviour. Evidence on particularly detrimental attitudes and beliefs is however lacking. To close this knowledge gap, we analysed associations between gambling attitudes and beliefs (Gambling Attitudes and Beliefs Survey (GABS-15)) and severity of gambling disorder (DSM-5 criteria met) in a German cohort of 123 individuals receiving outpatient gambling treatment. Data from the "Katamnese-Study" covering a 36-months timeframe with 5 assessment points was pooled. The multidimensional structure of the GABS-15 was examined using explorative and confirmatory factor analyses, followed by mixed-effect regression models using different operationalizations of the GABS-15. A three-factorial structure comprising "attitudes while gambling", "sensation-seeking / excitement", and "gambling fallacies" demonstrated better fit indices than the GABS-15 sum score. Only the "gambling fallacies " factor (1.00, p<0.05; 15.36, p < 0.01) was significantly associated with increased severity of GD. As a one-dimensional conceptualization of gambling-related attitudes and beliefs might not sufficiently guide staff of outpatient treatment facilities regarding priority setting in gambling care, evidence on attitudes with particularly detrimental associations is highly warranted. Here, focussing on mitigating "gambling' fallacies" by tailored treatment strategies appears promising.

Behavioral Biases and their Influence on Financial Decisions: An Analysis of Social Entrepreneurship in a Medium-Sized City

In recent years, entrepreneurship has been an alternative economic livelihood that independently seeks to generate employment and in turn the economic growth of countries. Social entrepreneurship is a topic of great importance in recent research, however, there is still not enough empirical evidence to analyze the rationality of decision making. Given the social factor they pursue, it is possible that they may be affected by behavioral distortions that influence their rationality, especially in three financial aspects: investment, savings and indebtedness. Therefore, the objective of this work is to determine the existing influence between behavioral biases and financial decision making of social enterprises in the canton of Cuenca. The study is a descriptive-correlational cross-sectional approach, using structural equations from Partial Least Squares (PLS). The sample obtained is 162 social enterprises. The results show a significant positive influence of overconfidence, procrastination, status quo, and negative influence of over optimism on investment decisions. Also, procrastination and status quo directly influence savings decisions, but the gambler's fallacy indirectly. On the other hand, the risk aversion, overconfidence, over optimism and status quo biases were significantly influenced on borrowing decisions

Effect of Behavioural Biases on Investment Decisions of Individual Investors in India

The current study "effect of behavioural biases on investment decisions of individual investors in India" aims to uncover and quantify the influence of behavioural biases on individual investors' investment decisions. The study's goal is to examine the influence of behavioural biases on individual investors' investing decisions. It is discovered that five components are formed from the thirteen items as a consequence of heuristics factor analysis, namely Availability, Representativeness, Overconfidence, Anchoring, and Gambler's Fallacy. The prospective factor analysis also reveals that three components are retrieved and loaded from the eleven items, namely Loss Aversion, Regret Aversion, and Mental Accounting. According to the findings of this study, behavioural biases affect individual investors while making investment decisions in the Indian securities market. Investor behaviour in making investment decisions is influenced to a larger extent by availability, representativeness, overconfidence, anchoring, and loss aversion. To be successful, an investor must first understand his or her own investment behaviour, which begins with recognising and avoiding behavioural biases from their own experiences, followed by setting realistic and achievable goals through a diversifiable portfolio, and taking into account all financial market mechanisms.

Correlates of Gambling Behaviours Among Day Traders: Evidence from a National Study.

Although research examining the relationship between participation in financial speculation (e.g., purchasing penny stocks, shorting stocks, cryptocurrency trading, and day trading) is sparse, findings consistently indicate that engaging in speculative activities is associated with problematic gambling behaviour. For the present study, gamblers across Canada who had or had not also engaged in day trading were surveyed. A total of n = 467day traders and n = 9,558 non-day traders were compared in terms of their sociodemographic backgrounds, gambling habits, primary gambling motives, and endorsement of gambling fallacies. Male gender, racial/ethnic minority status, higher educational attainment and income, not working or studying full- or part-time, participation in a larger number of gambling activities, and lower endorsement of coping motives were associated with day trading involvement. Furthermore, lower income, participation in a larger number of gambling activities, greater endorsement of gambling fallacies, and not showing a preference for either skill- or chance-based games predicted moderate-risk-to-problem gambling behaviour among day traders. This research provides insight into factors that may underlie day traders' susceptibility to experiencing gambling problems.

Role of behavioral biases in the investment decisions of Pakistan Stock Exchange investors: Moderating role of investment experience

Despite many revolutionary asset pricing models developed over the past decades, traditional finance does not explain investor behavior very well. The purpose of this study is to examine the influence of behavioral biases on the investment decisions of investors of Pakistan Stock Exchange. In addition, the moderating influence of investment experience investigated in this study. The findings were reported using a sample of 230 individual investors, who make their own investments, typically through a mutual fund, bank, or internet broker. They make investments to achieve their unique investment objectives, such as saving for retirement, a child’s education, or increasing their overall wealth. The influence of behavioral biases on investment decisions was calculated using regression analysis. Regression results show that beta and t-values are significant and have a significant impact on investment decisions. Regression findings show that Confirmation Bias, Gamblers Fallacy Bias, Negativity Bias, Bandwagon Effect Bias, Loss Aversion Bias, and Overconfidence Bias all have a substantial impact on Investment Decisions. Status quo prejudice and endowment bias have a favorable but minor influence on Investment Decisions. Investment Experience is regarded as an essential component that contributes to successful decision making under risk and uncertainty, however the results of this study show that moderating variables have a minor influence. According to the findings, the moderating variable had no effect on the connection between behavioral biases and investment decisions. And the reason for this is that behavioral biases persist regardless of investing experience.

The Impact of Social Media, Herding Bias, Gambler’s Fallacy, and Framing Effect on Investment Decisions among Gen Z Investors in Pontianak City

The role of social media can influence an individual's decision-making behavior, particularly when information presentation is accompanied by bias or financial behavior, which can impact investors' psychology in determining their investment choices. The research employs an associative research method, aiming to explore the relationship between the role of social media, herding bias, gambler's fallacy, and framing effect in the investment decision-making process among Generation Z, who have grown alongside technological advancements. The sampling technique involves purposive sampling with predefined criteria, and a total of 200 respondents participated in the survey conducted through Google Forms. Data verification was carried out using SPSS 26. The findings and conclusions indicate that while social media does influence investment decisions, the impact is not statistically significant. In contrast, herding bias and gambler's fallacy do not have a significant influence on investment decision-making.

Heuristic Biases and Investment Decision-making of Stock Market Investors: A Review Paper

This article builds a theoretical and research framework by identifying numerous behavioural biases in investing decision-making through a survey of research publications in the field of behavioural finance. It outlines some of the early research that helped establish behavioural finance as a field of study and shows how it has developed through time. The purpose of the article is to carry a systematic review of the literature on heuristic biases, namely overconfidence, representativeness, anchoring, availability and gambler’s fallacy influencing stock market investment decisions, identifying the major gaps in the existing studies on behavioural biases. It also aims to raise specific questions for future research. In the present study, systematic literature review (SLR) technique has been employed. By looking at the research’s year of publication, the journal of publishing, the country of study, the type of study and the statistical methods employed, one can determine the relevance of the study. On the basis of keyword searches for ‘behavioural finance’ in various published journals, conference proceedings, working papers and some other published publications, the research papers are analysed. For the purpose of creating this article, research papers from the earliest studies (1970) to the most recent publications (2022) have been gathered over a period of years. The study also highlights some of the most recent research carried out in this area. The current study is based on 131 selected research papers that were published in reputable journals between 1970 and 2022. A significant portion of the body of literature on behavioural biases highlights the dearth of this type of study in emerging nations; increase in the number of studies after behavioural finance was applied to investment decision-making, the predominance of empirical research; the widespread use of regression analysis; the prevalence of studies on overconfidence bias and the dearth of studies on availability bias and gamblers fallacy. To the best of the authors’ knowledge, the article is a pioneering work in the field of behavioural finance to employ SLR method for a considerable span of time (1970–2022) and to evaluate all the heuristic biases involved in investment decision-making. The present research study is an integration of SLR and bibliometric analysis. The publications’ patterns have been revealed, and the relationships between different types of literature have shed information on the direction that further research should go in.

AN An Empirical Review Of Behavioral Biases In Investment Decisions

The present study is to focus on the insights of investment behavior of investors in general. Investment analysis was performing from very long periods, but most of times analysis was proven wrong and investor couldn’t make fruits of their investment. The main reason for the failure of analysis is they focus on the different aspects of Economies and predict what happens in future but they neglect the capacity and failure of human brain while analyzing and processing the data. Here this research will focus on the different issues corresponding to the behavioral aspects which plays crucial role while investing the funds. Cognitive behavior of investors will create disadvantageous result of an investment. These behavioral issues are called Behavioral Biases. These biases influence an investor unknowingly to deviate from the actual analysis for choosing investment option. This research made to find such aspects to influence the investor decisions. The behavioral biases create chaos to the investors and guiding others to fear for Markets, hence market flies down trend. The Behavioral Biases includes Herding, Home bias, Over Confidence, Anchoring, Gambler Fallacy, Loss Aversion, Regrets and Mental Accounting and so on.

Bayesians Commit the Gambler's Fallacy

Bayesians Commit the Gambler's Fallacy

Excitatory stimulation of the ventromedial prefrontal cortex reduces cognitive gambling biases via improved feedback learning

Humans are subject to a variety of cognitive biases, such as the framing-effect or the gambler's fallacy, that lead to decisions unfitting of a purely rational agent. Previous studies have shown that the ventromedial prefrontal cortex (vmPFC) plays a key role in making rational decisions and that stronger vmPFC activity is associated with attenuated cognitive biases. Accordingly, dysfunctions of the vmPFC are associated with impulsive decisions and pathological gambling. By applying a gambling paradigm in a between-subjects design with 33 healthy adults, we demonstrate that vmPFC excitation via transcranial direct current stimulation (tDCS) reduces the framing-effect and the gambler's fallacy compared to sham stimulation. Corresponding magnetoencephalographic data suggest improved inhibition of maladaptive options after excitatory vmPFC-tDCS. Our analyses suggest that the underlying mechanism might be improved reinforcement learning, as effects only emerge over time. These findings encourage further investigations of whether excitatory vmPFC-tDCS has clinical utility in treating pathological gambling or other behavioral addictions.

Having a Positive Attitude or Doing Good Deeds? An Experimental Investigation of Poker Players’ Responses to the Gambling Fallacies Measure

Gambling fallacies are irrational beliefs about how gambling works, which are common among disordered gamblers, and measured by questionnaires such as the Gambling Fallacies Measure (GFM). Less is known about the potentially rational cognitions of some skilled gamblers, such as professional poker players. The present research experimentally manipulated item 5 from the GFM, “A positive attitude or doing good deeds increases your likelihood of winning money when gambling”, by comparing two new versions focusing only on a “positive attitude” or “doing good deeds” to the original version (control). Item 5 is scored so that “disagree” is the non-fallacious correct answer, but it was hypothesized that the words “a positive attitude” might increase rates of poker players selecting “agree” in a non-fallacious manner. Online experiments were conducted on samples of professional poker players (N = 379), and a broad sample of poker players with no inclusion criteria (N = 1,510). Participants’ responses to item 5 were associated with the rest of their GFM scores (GFM-9). Participants in both samples were more likely to disagree with the good deeds version, and less likely to disagree with the positive attitude version, compared to control. In comparison to the other conditions, good deeds responses were most strongly associated with GFM-9 scores among professionals, while positive attitude responses were least strongly associated with GFM-9 scores among the broad sample. The good deeds version of item 5 has advantageous measurement properties among professional poker players. New approaches are needed to better understand the potentially rational cognitions of skilled gamblers.

Passive Quantum Measurement: Arrival Time, Quantum Zeno Effect and Gambler's Fallacy

AbstractClassical measurements are passive, in the sense that they do not affect the physical properties of the measured system. Normally, quantum measurements are not passive in that sense. In the infinite dimensional Hilbert space, however, it is found that quantum projective measurement can be passive in a way which is impossible in finite dimensional Hilbert spaces. Specifically, it is found that expectation value of a hermitian Hamiltonian can have an imaginary part in the infinite dimensional Hilbert space and that such an imaginary part implies a possibility to avoid quantum Zeno effect, which can physically be realized in quantum arrival experiments. The avoidance of quantum Zeno effect can also be understood as avoidance of a quantum version of gambler's fallacy, leading to the notion of passive quantum measurement that updates information about the physical system without affecting its physical properties. The arrival time probability distribution of a particle is found to be given by the flux of the probability current. Possible negative fluxes correspond to regimes at which there is no arrival at all, physically understood as regimes at which the particle departs rather than arrives.

PENGARUH OVERCONFIDENCE, GAMBLER’S FALLACY DAN LOSS AVERSION TERHADAP KEPUTUSAN INVESTASI DI SUMATERA UTARA

This study aims to prove the effect of overconfidence, loss aversion, gambler's fallacy, on investment decisions. The type of research used is conclusive causality which aims to see the cause-and-effect between the dependent variable and the independent variable. This research study uses primary data obtained from distributing questionnaires through social media. The population in this study were all capital market investors in North Sumatra. Due to the unknown population, the sampling used Malhotra's theory with purposive sampling technique so that 190 samples were obtained in this study. The results stated that overconfidence, loss aversion and gambler's fallacy partially had a positive and significant effect on investment decision making. Other results overconfidence, loss aversion and gambler's fallacy simultaneously have a positive and significant effect on investment decision making

Teaching &amp; Learning Guide for: Cosmic Fine‐tuning, the Multiverse Hypothesis, and the Inverse Gambler's Fallacy

Philosophy CompassVolume 18, Issue 3 e12906 TEACHING AND LEARNING GUIDE Teaching & Learning Guide for: Cosmic Fine-tuning, the Multiverse Hypothesis, and the Inverse Gambler's Fallacy Neil A. Manson, Corresponding Author Neil A. Manson [email protected] orcid.org/0000-0002-5669-4780 The University of Mississippi, University, Mississippi, USA Correspondence Neil A. Manson Email: [email protected]Search for more papers by this author Neil A. Manson, Corresponding Author Neil A. Manson [email protected] orcid.org/0000-0002-5669-4780 The University of Mississippi, University, Mississippi, USA Correspondence Neil A. Manson Email: [email protected]Search for more papers by this author First published: 11 March 2023 https://doi.org/10.1111/phc3.12906 This guide accompanies the following article(s): Neil A. Manson, ‘Cosmic Fine-tuning, the Multiverse Hypothesis, and the Inverse Gambler's Fallacy.’ Philosophy Compass, 17(9), (2022) e12873. https://doi.org/10.1111/phc3.12873. Read the full textAboutPDF ToolsRequest permissionExport citationAdd to favoritesTrack citation ShareShare Give accessShare full text accessShare full-text accessPlease review our Terms and Conditions of Use and check box below to share full-text version of article.I have read and accept the Wiley Online Library Terms and Conditions of UseShareable LinkUse the link below to share a full-text version of this article with your friends and colleagues. Learn more.Copy URL Volume18, Issue3March 2023e12906 RelatedInformation

Skilled poker players provide more accurate responses than amateur poker players to the Gambling Fallacies Measure

Skilled poker players provide more accurate responses than amateur poker players to the Gambling Fallacies Measure

Cognitive Factors that Predict Gambling Fallacy Endorsement.

Gambling fallacies are a collection of error-stricken beliefs about gambling and how gambling works. Gambling fallacies, while common in the general public, appear to increase as a function of gambling severity. This being the case, many interventions have focused on reducing gambling fallacies as a means of treating problem-gambling. Less research, however, has investigated what factors contributes to gambling fallacy susceptibility in the first place. Available studies have identified associations between gambling fallacy susceptibility and isolated individual differences in, for example, statistical reasoning/understanding, intelligence, or cognitive ability. The current study aimed to assess these cognitive factors in conjunction, and their relative predictive potential for gambling fallacy susceptibility. In an Australian university student sample (n = 90) it was found that there were moderate to strong association between gambling fallacy endorsement and general intelligence, probabilistic reasoning ability, rational cognitive style and the ability to suppress intuitive thought, however, only probabilistic reasoning, rational cognitive style and the ability to suppress intuitive thinking contributed to the prediction of fallacy endorsement. Importantly, each of these factors are malleable. Interventions for the correction of gambling-specific fallacious beliefs should focus on these factors.

An Empirical Study of the Pathway Model Link Between Cognitive Distortions and Gambling Problems.

This research empirically tests the relationship between gambling-related cognitive distortions and the development of gambling problems. In two separate studies using methodologies designed to support non-experimental causal inference, we demonstrate that holding false beliefs about gambling experiences is related to current and future risk of developing problems with gambling. In our first study, we use an instrumental variable estimation strategy on an internet sample (n = 184) and observe a statistically significant relationship between Gamblers' Belief Questionnaire scores and measures of loss chasing, overspending, and gambling problems. These findings were robust to linear and ordinal estimation strategies and multiple model specifications. In our second study, we examine five-year prospective longitudinal data (n = 1,431) to validate our initial findings and test whether irrational thoughts are also related to future problems with gambling. While controlling for current fallacies, we find that past Gambling Fallacies Measure scores are related to present gambling problems across two survey waves. The effect size of each of the past fallacy levels is roughly half of the effect size of present levels, suggesting meaningful impacts. Our findings support the Pathways Model of Problem and Pathological Gambling.

A cross-country study of gambling fallacies : South Korea, USA, and Switzerland

This study assesses gambling fallacy roles in three countries (South Korea, USA, and Switzerland) based on their problem gambling status and independent and interdependent self-construal. Online surveys obtained three separate data sets for South Korea, USA, and Switzerland via local online panel companies, and a confirmatory factor analysis confirmed the convergent and discriminant validity of the measurement. An ANOVA also tested differences in gambling fallacy factors between recreational and pathological gamblers in the three countries. The ANOVA results indicate that each gambling fallacy factor had significant main effects on gambler types. Pathological gamblers in USA scored highest on the system-to-win factor, followed by Switzerland and Korea. Superstitions and follow and blame factors for pathological gamblers in Korea were higher than in USA and Switzerland. Additionally, the cultural backgrounds of pathological gamblers produced gambling fallacy variances. This study contributes to the literature in that a three-country data set validated the distinctive four-factor setting of the gambling fallacy scale. Findings highlight each gambling fallacy factor for recreational and pathological gamblers as unique across the three countries. Furthermore, the results provide managerial implications for developing responsible gambling strategies by considering gambling fallacy factors according to gambler types.

COSMIC FINE‐TUNING, THE MULTIVERSE HYPOTHESIS, AND THE INVERSE GAMBLER'S FALLACY

AbstractThe multiverse hypothesis is one of the leading proposed explanations of cosmic fine‐tuning for life. One common objection to the multiverse hypothesis is that, even if it were true, it would not explain why this universe, our universe, is fine‐tuned for life. To think it would so explain is allegedly to commit “the inverse gambler's fallacy.” This paper presents what the inverse gambler's fallacy is supposed to be, then surveys the discussion of it in the philosophical literature of the last 35 years.

The Role of Heuristic Factors in Investment Performance: Exploring the Market Anomalies in a Volatile Environment

The literature of heuristic factors and investment performance is less confirmatory. That is why it is quite important to explore and quantify the mediation mechanism of stock market anomalies in a volatile environment. For this research, the data were collected through a survey to stock investors who are actively involved in investing. The findings of this study show that heuristic factors, availability, conservatism, and illusion of control have a significant and positive direct relationship to investment performance. For heuristic factors like anchoring and gambler’s fallacy, there has been an insignificant direct relationship to investment performance. While in indirect relationship to the investment performance, illusion of control and conservatism generate both fundamental and technical anomalies in the market, and they affect the investment performance via technical and fundamental anomalies. Anchoring bias, availability bias and gambler fallacy do not generate both technical and fundamental anomalies in market. Our study result indicates that stock market fundamental and technical anomalies have influenced individual investors’ investment performance.The findings show that there is a significant impact of fundamental anomalies on investment performance.