G7 Stock Market Research Articles

THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN ECONOMIC POLICY UNCERTAINTY AND G7 STOCK MARKETS

Savaş, finansal krizler ve siyasi seçimler gibi durumlarda ortaya çıkan belirsizlik kavramı, ekonomik birimlerin alacağı kararlar üzerinde oldukça etkili olmaktadır. Belirsizliğin olduğu bir ortam, yatırımcıların ekonomiye olan güvenini olumsuz etkilemektedir. Belirsizliğin yarattığı olumsuz etkilerin gözlemlenebildiği alanlardan birisi de ülke borsalarıdır. Bu çalışma, G7 gelişmiş ülke piyasalarında ekonomi politikası belirsizliği endeksi ile borsa arasındaki ilişkiyi araştırmaktadır. Bu amaçla, 1997'den 2019'a kadar olan aylık dönem, gözlemlenen piyasalar arasındaki olası yatay kesit bağımlılığını dikkate alan ikinci nesil panel veri metodolojileri ile incelenmiştir. Ekonomi politikası belirsizliğinin G7 ülke borsa endeksleri üzerindeki uzun dönem etkisinin tahmin edilmesinde, ülkeler arasında gözlemlenen yatay kesit bağımlılığını dikkate alan ortak ilişkili etkiler (CCE) tahmincisi kullanılmıştır. Ekonomi politikası belirsizliği endeksi ile G7 ülke borsa endeksleri arasındaki nedensellik ilişkisi ise yatay kesit bağımlılığını ve heterojeniteyi dikkate alan panel nedensellik testi ile incelenmiştir. Sonuçlar, ekonomi politikası belirsizliğinin G7 ülke borsa endekslerini uzun vadede olumsuz etkilediğini göstermektedir. Ayrıca, panel nedensellik test sonuçları, ekonomi politikası belirsizliği ile G7 ülke borsaları arasında çift yönlü nedensellik olduğunu ortaya koymuştur.

Systemic risk spillovers between crude oil and stock index returns of G7 economies: Conditional value-at-risk and marginal expected shortfall approaches

In this study, we examine systemic risk and dependence between oil and stock market indices of G7 economies between January 2003 and November 2017. Coincidentally, this timeframe covers different distress periods in financial and energy markets. We use several time-constant, time-varying and time-varying Markov-copula models to examine the dependence. Further, we use the delta conditional value-at-risk (ΔCoVaR) of Adrian and Brunnermeier (2016) and marginal expected shortfall (MES) of Acharya et al. (2012) to captures the risk spillover effects and give evidence of systemic risk. From the copula analysis, we find dissimilar dependence structure between returns series of oil and the G7 stock markets. For France, Germany and Japan, the dependence is Markov-switching time-varying, while it is time-varying for the United States and Canada, constant for the United Kingdom and around zero for Italy. Our empirical evidence on systemic risk indicates that oil price dynamics contributes significantly more to the G7 stock market returns during volatile times than during tranquil times. In particular, the Canada stock market appears more sensitive and vulnerable to negative external shocks emerging from the crude oil market than the other markets. Further, the country risk rankings identified using MES and ΔCoVaR may not be identical. In addition, the analysis results suggest that the crude oil market can be a good diversifier for investors in Japan and France and that the investors in the rest of G7 countries must act more carefully.

Symmetric and Asymmetric GARCH Estimations and Portfolio Optimization: Evidence From G7 Stock Markets

Volatility exchanges between equity markets and oil markets are vital for portfolio designing and risk management. This study empirically analyses the interdependence of stock and oil market for G7...

Good and bad volatility spillovers: An asymmetric connectedness

This paper analyzes the asymmetric volatility spillovers across major financial markets. The good and bad volatility components are relative to positive and negative shocks, respectively. The proposed framework adds a great deal of information by separating the effects of good news and bad news on risk transmission, and by detecting the time variation in the asymmetric connectedness. Empirical evidence on the G7 stock market indices shows that the good and bad volatilities are transmitted with different time-varying intensities. Specifically, during the global financial crisis and the European sovereign debt crisis, the markets transmit, on average, more bad volatility than good volatility.

Heterogeneous Responses to China and Oil Shocks: the G7 Stock Markets

Given its size and integration with the global economy, Chinese economic downturn could have momentous spillovers to the rest of the world and result in a decline in oil prices. This article investigates whether the Chinese economic slowdown and the oil prices affect the G7 stock market. We use a Quantile-on-Quantile regression approach to capture the correlation structure between the G7 stock returns and oil price returns under different G7 market conditions with considering nuances of oil price movements and Chinese slowdown. Data are employed over the period of January 1999 ~ December 2015. Our results show that the responses of G7 stock returns to China and oil shocks are likely to be asymmetric, nonlinear and country-specific. The stock market returns of Germany, Italy and Canada appear the most vulnerable to these shocks. Our results suggest that international investors consider the states of stock market returns and oil price alongside with the interaction effect between China’s economic slowdown and oil market.

The shifting dependence dynamics between the G7 stock markets

The growing interdependence between financial markets has attracted special attention from academic researchers and finance practitioners for the purpose of optimal portfolio design and contagion analysis. This article develops a tractable regime-switching version of the copula functions to model the intermarkets linkages during turmoil and normal periods, while taking into account structural changes. More precisely, Markov regime-switching C-vine and D-vine decompositions of the Student’s t copula are proposed and applied to returns on diversified portfolios of stocks, represented by the G7 stock market indices. The empirical results show evidence of regime shifts in the dependence structure with high contagion risk during crisis periods. Moreover, both the C- and D-vines highly outperform the multivariate Student’s t copula, which suggests that the shock transmission path is as important as the dependence itself, and is better detected with a vine copula decomposition.

Correlation Dynamics in the G7 Stock Markets

The present study explores the trend of the correlation level within the synchronised returns on the G7 equity market indices over the 1991-2015 sample period and its response to changing economic environment. Empirical results show a strong positive trend toward higher correlation level and significant time-series autocorrelation in the magnitude of cross-market return correlation. Correlation level is higher when financial markets experience turbulent periods. The sample period is split into “pre-crisis” and “crisis” periods to allow for different risk dynamics in two states of economy. During the “pre-crisis” period equity markets appear to be more correlated when the countries in the G7 group experience decrease in average GDP level. During the “crisis” period this relationship reverses; the growth in average GDP level is associated with a higher level of correlation within the equity markets.

Illiquidity, return and risk in G7 stock markets: Interdependencies and spillovers

Trading activity in G7 stock markets reflects not only the macroeconomic and financial impact of these G7 economies in international economic growth, but also their financial interdependence. While this nexus of major stock markets has been explored in terms of volatility and return spillovers, there has been no combined analysis of return, volatility and illiquidity spillovers. We study illiquidity spillovers because they are transmissions of trading activity and, thereof, transmissions of information and market sentiment. We find that the dynamics of international stock markets are characterized by persistent illiquidity and also that illiquidity shocks are significantly correlated across markets. Furthermore, we discover Granger causal associations between risk, return and illiquidity across G7 stock market and also within each stock market. Our findings bear significance for the regulation of international financial markets and also for international portfolio diversification.

An examination of investor sentiment effect on G7 stock market returns

This paper examines the relationship between investor sentiment and G7 stock market returns. Using a range of investor sentiment proxies, including investor survey, equity fund flow, closed-end equity fund (CEEF) discount and equity put–call ratio, we examine if investor sentiment has a significant influence on value and growth stock returns as well as aggregate market returns. Using monthly data for the period January 1995–December 2007, our results depict a negative relationship between investor sentiment and future returns. We find results that are consistent with previous studies in that when investor sentiment is high (low), future returns are low (high). Our panel results display evidence of commonality across all the sentiment measures with the value stocks having a particularly strong effect relative to growth stocks. Furthermore, the effect of survey sentiment on future returns gradually decreases beyond the one-month forecast horizon. We observe evidence of price pressure on value stocks and the overall market due to increases in concurrent equity fund flow. Finally, the discount of CEEFs is also found to proxy for investor sentiment, with a narrower discount being associated with an increase (decrease) in value (growth) stocks.

International Evidence for Return Predictability and the Implications for Long-Run Covariation of the G7 Stock Markets

Abstract Temporary fluctuations of the US consumption-wealth ratio do not only predict excess returns on the US but also international stock markets at the business cycle frequency. This finding is the reflection of a common, temporary component in national stock markets. Exposure to this common component explains up to 50% of the pairwise covariation among long-horizon returns on the G7 stock markets for the time period from 1970 to 2008. This latter finding is less pronounced in the post-1990s period.

International Evidence for Return Predictability and the Implications for Long-Run Covariation of the G7 Stock Markets

Temporary fluctuations of the U.S. consumption-wealth ratio, cay, predict excess returns on international stock markets at the business cycle frequency. This finding is the reflection of a common, temporary component in national stock markets. Exposure to this common component explains up to 60 percent of the covariation among long-horizon returns on the G7 stock markets for the time period from 1973 to 2005. The impact of the common component on stock market comovement is particularly pronounced in the period from 1990 to 2005.

Correlated ARCH (CorrARCH): Modelling the time-varying conditional correlation between financial asset returns

Although the time variation of the conditional correlations of asset returns is a well established stylized fact (and of crucial importance for efficient financial decisions) there is no explicit general model available for its estimation and forecasting. In this paper, we propose a bivariate GARCH covariance structure in which conditional variances can follow any GARCH-type process, while conditional correlation is generated by an explicit discrete-time stochastic process, the CorrARCH process. A high order CorrARCH can parsimoniously be represented by a CorGARCH process. The model successfully generates the reported stylized facts, establishes an autocorrelation structure for correlations and thus provides an explicit framework for out-of-sample forecasting. We provide empirical evidence from the G7 Stock Market Indexes.