Future Travel Intention Research Articles

The demand for safety measures in the hospitality industry: Changes over three phases of a pandemic

This study examined three phases of a pandemic for changes in demand for safety measures implemented by the hospitality industry. Findings suggested that as demands for safety changed over the different phases, the interplay between safety compliance and the three pillars of the Social Impact theory became more pronounced. Results found that health and hygiene practices became significantly more influential in travel decisions, while contactless technology maintained a negative impact on the immediacy of future travel intention. In contrast, crisis messaging had an increasingly positive impact, exacerbated by political polarization and perceptions. The relevance of physical distancing in travel decisions showed no statistical significance, most likely due to "caution fatigue", improved industry safety protocols, and a focus shift towards vaccination. Meanwhile, the role of personal protection equipment in travel planning evolved, starting strong but decreasing in importance as vaccines took prominence and travelers adapted to new norms.

Back to the future: Advancing more sustainable tourism through domestic summer holidaying after the COVID-19 pandemic

ABSTRACT Health hazards, border restrictions, insurance limitations, travel uncertainties, and other disruptions following the COVID-19 pandemic reduced international travel in the summer of 2021. The sudden travel changes created a unique opportunity to investigate potentials for reshaping future holidaying. The article’s objective is to investigate how experiences of domestic summer holidaying might have influenced attitudes towards future holiday travel. It is based on exploratory survey conducted among Oslo region inhabitants. A structural equation modelling analytical framework revealed two main holidaying orientations, environmentally friendly and international vacationist, characterised by five attitude dimensions, and associated with weaker and stronger inclinations towards future long-distance international travel, respectively. The sharply contrasting attitudes underpinning these orientations were based on experiences of ‘forced’ domestic holidaying shaping future travel intentions with implications for more sustainable tourism. The pandemic prompted some people to go ‘back to the future’ and intend to resume ‘old’ (traditional) summer holidaying practices: mainly short-distance domestic trips with reduced carbon footprint and greater emphasis on social bonds. In conclusion, the study contributes to theory development through exploring environmental consciousness and habit discontinuities, as well as time and distance perceptions related to holiday travel. Lastly, the implications of the findings are presented.

How does the metaverse travel experience influence virtual and actual travel behaviors? Focusing on the role of telepresence and avatar identification

Although the tourism industry is exploring the potential of the metaverse, the nature of the metaverse travel experience and its psychological and behavioral consequences have not been fully examined. This study aims to analyze the empirical linkage between the experience value of metaverse travel and both virtual and actual travel intentions by focusing on the role of telepresence and avatar identification. Study 1 qualitatively identified four experience values: utilitarian, social, hedonic, and sensory. Study 2 quantitatively analyzed the significant impact of these experience values on telepresence and its subsequent impact on both actual and continuous virtual travel intentions. It was found that similarity and ideal avatar identification moderate the impact of telepresence on future travel intentions. As an initial empirical research that investigated the influence of metaverse travel experiences, theoretical and practical implications are discussed.

Travellers’ Attitude and Intention towards post Covid-19 Travel: The Moderating Role of Traveller Personality Type

COVID-19 has crucially changed the motivations, attitudes, and behaviours of travellers. This study explores the shifts in travel attitudes after the COVID-19 pandemic and how these changes affect the intention for upcoming travels. It investigates the moderating role of the traveller personality in forming the relationships between travel attitude’s antecedents and future travel intention. The study adopts the deductive approach and employs the quantitative method to achieve its aim. It compares the perceptions collected via a questionnaire from random travellers from three countries: UAE, Egypt, and Jordan. PLS-SEM is used for data analysis. It is revealed that protection motivation intentions, destination selection factors, and travel patterns/ arrangements predict travel attitudes post the pandemic. Cautious travellers are highly concerned with protection intentions and destination selection post-epidemic compared with normal travellers. Findings help us understand the shifts in travel attitudes and intentions after the pandemic. Understating the influence of the epidemic on tourists’ attitudes and intention to travel post-pandemic is strongly needed to accelerate tourism recovery and ensure a safe travel environment for tourists. Theoretically, the study responds to the research calls for examining the changes in travel motivations, attitudes, and behaviours. Practically, the study profiles travellers based on their travel personality (i.e., cautious versus normal travellers) and identifies the characteristics of each category. This will help destination marketers and service providers to adopt the relevant strategies to meet the tourists’ needs, expectations and fears in the post-pandemic new normal.

Future Travel Intentions in Light of Risk and Uncertainty: An Extended Theory of Planned Behavior

COVID-19 has affected travel and will undoubtedly impact how people view travel and future intentions to travel as we adjust to life moving forward. Understanding how people arrive at these travel intentions will be paramount for managers and planners in determining how best to reactively and proactively plan for tourism, especially considering perceived risk and uncertainty related to COVID-19. By extending the theory of planned behavior, this study aims to examine the relationship between perceived risk, perceived uncertainty, subjective norms, attitudes about future travel, and perceived behavioral control in explaining individuals’ intentions to travel in the near future. This study employed a quantitative research method, and data were gathered using an online questionnaire distributed through Qualtrics from a sample of 541 potential travelers (representing residents of 46 US states) from 23 June 2020 to 1 July 2020. Of the eight hypotheses tested, four were supported. Surprisingly, neither perceived risk nor uncertainty were significant within the model. Subjective norms significantly predicted both attitudes about traveling and perceived behavioral control. Subjective norms and perceived behavioral control, in turn, explained a moderate degree of variation in individuals’ intentions to travel. Study implications, limitations, and future research suggestions are offered. One of the main managerial implications includes the need for destinations to be proactive and focus on intentional planning for sustainable tourism.

A Review of the Psychological Impacts of COVID-19 towards Travellers

The COVID-19 pandemic has severely impacted businesses and industries worldwide, including the tourism and hospitality industry. Border closures and safety policies affected tourism activities which resulted in a decrease or no tourist arrivals. This paper reviews the impacts of COVID-19, specifically the psychological impacts on future travel intention post-pandemic travel restrictions. By using a bibliometric analysis, a total of 30 papers about the scope of the study were identified from 2021 – 2022. This review identified fear, anxiety and stress impacts that were discussed sparsely throughout the period. This presents a wider implication for destination stakeholders in understanding the shift in travel behaviour post-pandemic. Additionally, this review provides a deeper understanding of the psychological impacts of COVID-19 towards destination promotion and management.

Post-pandemic shared mobility and active travel in Alabama: A machine learning analysis of COVID-19 survey data

The COVID-19 pandemic has had unprecedented impacts on the way we get around, which has increased the need for physical and social distancing while traveling. Shared mobility, as an emerging travel mode that allows travelers to share vehicles or rides has been confronted with social distancing measures during the pandemic. On the contrary, the interest in active travel (e.g., walking and cycling) has been renewed in the context of pandemic-driven social distancing. Although extensive efforts have been made to show the changes in travel behavior during the pandemic, people’s post-pandemic attitudes toward shared mobility and active travel are under-explored. This study examined Alabamians’ post-pandemic travel preferences regarding shared mobility and active travel. An online survey was conducted among residents in the State of Alabama to collect Alabamians’ perspectives on post-pandemic travel behavior changes, e.g., whether they will avoid ride-hailing services and walk or cycle more after the pandemic. Machine learning algorithms were used to model the survey data (N = 481) to identify the contributing factors of post-pandemic travel preferences. To reduce the bias of any single model, this study explored multiple machine learning methods, including Random Forest, Adaptive Boosting, Support Vector Machine, K-Nearest Neighbors, and Artificial Neural Network. Marginal effects of variables from multiple models were combined to show the quantified relationships between contributing factors and future travel intentions due to the pandemic. Modeling results showed that the interest in shared mobility would decrease among people whose one-way commuting time by driving is 30–45 min. The interest in shared mobility would increase for households with an annual income of $100,000 or more and people who reduced their commuting trips by over 50% during the pandemic. In terms of active travel, people who want to work from home more seemed to be interested in increasing active travel. This study provides an understanding of future travel preferences among Alabamians due to COVID-19. The information can be incorporated into local transportation plans that consider the impacts of the pandemic on future travel intentions.

How will multifaceted trust impact domestic travel during the COVID-19 pandemic and subjective well-being? A comparison between Korea and the US

This study examines the impact of extended tourist trust constructs on domestic travel experiences, subjective well-being, and future travel intention in the pandemic. Data was obtained through a survey conducted on 1181 Korean and American domestic tourists. The results show that policy trust and destination trust have positive effects on travel frequency and satisfaction. Moreover, interactional trust positively impacted travel satisfaction. While both travel frequency and travel satisfaction have positive impacts on subjective well-being of travelers, travel satisfaction has a stronger impact on subjective well-being than travel frequency. However, certain relationships were influenced by national backgrounds (U·S vs. Korea).

PREDICTORS OF FUTURE TRAVEL INTENTIONS TO LAGOS MEGACITY: EXPLORING THE CRIME-RISK PERCEPTIONS

The issue of crime risk associated with travel has been receiving increased attention, yet this has scarcely been studied in African contexts. Besides, how travel intention is influenced by the interactions of perceived crime risk and socio-economic characteristics has scarcely been investigated. This study examines whether perceived crime-risk factors and socio-economic characteristics help to explain future travel intentions to megacities using Lagos, Nigeria as a case study. Self-administered questionnaires were used to gather information from a sample of travellers who arrived in Lagos in 2019. Frequency counts, percentages, mean and Ordinary Least Squares Regression (OLS) were used to analyse and interpret the data. The findings show that respondents were not certain about their safety in Lagos. Likewise, they were uncertain about their future travel to the city. Though partially mediated by travellers’ socio-economic characteristics, the findings show that perceived crime risk significantly predicts future travel intentions. Implications of these findings to travel and security management are discussed.

Managing Tourist Risk, Grief and Distrust Post COVID-19.

Tourism is one of the most important sectors for many countries and is also one of the most vulnerable to the impact of disasters. However, while tourism has proved resilient to localized or regional crisis, COVID-19 has had a universal impact on tourists, with pervasive, profound, and enduring implications. Our main objective is to explore and elucidate how such recent changes to tourism, triggered by the pandemic, affected the future travel intentions of tourists. Our exploration of these issues through in-depth interviews, finds that tourists were emotionally and psychologically affected by the sudden curb to their lives and that these emotions broadly equate to stages of grief. Furthermore, we uncover not only a general reduction in trust, but, concomitantly, an elevation in distrust towards destinations, manifest at the level of government, healthcare and tourist institutions, activities, and risk mitigation practices. Finally, we offer a discussion of the contributions and implications of our study in terms of tourism and hospitality research and practice.

The influence of future time perspective on older adults’ travel intention

ABSTRACT Ageing population has become more important to the travel industry because of increased life expectancy. This study aimed at participants above 60 years old, and a structural equation modelling package with R was used to investigate the relationships among chronological age, health condition, travel future time perspective (two dimensions: open-ended, limited), travel motivation (novelty/knowledge, socialization, rest/relaxation, family/friend), and travel intention in the proposed research framework (n = 577). The study results showed that chronological age and health condition were significantly associated with future time perspective, whereas general health condition was more predictable for travel intention than chronological age. The results indicate that a good health condition might be critical for boosting older adults’ travel behaviours, not chronological age. The findings better understand older adults’ travel behaviour based on age, health condition, and psychological state so that tourism marketers can better manage the ageing population. Theoretical and practical implications are discussed.

Predicting travel intentions using self-disclosure, trust and intimacy: the case of Tinder users during COVID-19

Purpose This paper determines how travel intentions can be predicted using self-disclosure behaviour, trust and intimacy. This case study focuses on Tinder users who utilised the application's Passport feature which allowed them to travel virtually and interact with other users around the globe amid global travel restrictions. Design/methodology/approach This quantitative research conveniently sampled 294 Tinder users who used the Passport feature during COVID-19 pandemic lockdowns. Data were analysed using PLS-SEM. Findings This study revealed that self-disclosure had a significant influence towards future travel intentions. Findings show that the more users self-disclose, the more their intent to travel increase. Trust and intimacy also had significant relationship on travel intentions while intimacy had a mediating effect between self-disclosure and travel intentions. Practical implications Tourism-oriented establishments and destination marketers should consider Tinder users as a market segment of future tourists. These users have developed travel intentions through in-app interactions and thus comprise an untapped market of potential tourists seeking for meet-ups and niche experiences in a post-pandemic era. Originality/value This study provides novelty in showing the predictive relationship of self-disclosure, trust and intimacy towards travel intentions. A model consisting of these constructs in the context of online interactions was also empirically tested and found adequate to predict travel intentions.

Reset or temporary break? Attitudinal change, risk perception and future travel intention in tourists experiencing the COVID-19 pandemic

PurposeThere is little knowledge to date regarding the influence of the COVID-19 health crisis on tourists' intention to travel differently in the future. This paper addresses this and explores its determinants. The objective of the present study is to determine to what extent the Spanish tourists affected by COVID-19 may change the way they travel in the future, according to the perceived risk of travel in a pandemic context.Design/methodology/approachBetween May and June 2020, the authors conducted a survey with a sample population of Spanish tourists who were resident in Spain during the COVID-19 pandemic, for the purposes of studying the role of attitudes and risk in the intention to change the way they want to travel in the future. Cluster analysis and one-way ANOVA were conducted to assess differences among the respondents. Finally, some models were built using the linear regression technique in order to evaluate the role of attitudes in the tourists' adaptive response to the perceived risk of travel.FindingsResults confirm the formation of a new way of life influencing tourists' intentions to travel more sustainably. Accordingly, tourists with a previous environmental attitude are less interested in visiting mass tourism beach destinations in the future. However, changes in the way some tourists travel can also be read as an adaptive and temporary response to the perceived risk of contracting the disease, and do not point to a reduction of the vital importance of tourism in their lives.Research limitations/implicationsThe exploratory nature of the study and the lack of similar international analyses does not allow the authors to contrast its results at a global level, though it offers a starting point for future research in other countries. There are also methodological limitations, since the field work was carried out between the first and second waves of the disease, at a time when the pandemic was in remission, possibly affecting the orientation of some responses, given the desire to recover normalcy and “normal” travel, and this may have influenced the priority given to tourism.Social implicationsThis study gives new insights into the debate on the social transformation of the collective consciousness. Despite some signs of change, part of the Spanish tourists are still anchored in traditional tourism practices embedded in cultural factors, which can hinder sustainability in the Spanish tourism industry. The experience of the COVID-19 crisis has not been sufficient to change the declared travel habits of Spanish tourists. Therefore, progress towards the definition of a new tourism system that implies the effective transformation of demand will require applying policies and promoting institutional innovation and education to create paths that facilitate transformative experiences.Originality/valueThe study is focused on the analysis of the relationship between attitudes and risk perception, including novel elements that enrich the academic debate on social progress in the transformation of tourism and the possibilities of promoting a reset from the demand side. Moreover, it incorporates, for the first time, the COVID-19 as it was experienced as an explanatory variable to analyse the changing travel attitudes in a post-COVID-19 era. The analysis of the psychosocial mechanisms of risk offers a good opportunity for a better assessment of post-pandemic demand risk perception. Finally, the study offers empirical evidence on how Spanish tourists are reimagining their next and future holidays, which can be highly valuable for destination managers.

Factors affecting future travel intentions: awareness, image, past visitation and risk perception

PurposeThis study aims to examine the influence of destination awareness, cognitive and affective image, risk perception and past visitation on the intention to visit a tourist destination (a medium-sized city) in the next 12 months.Design/methodology/approachPartial least squares structural equation modeling was adopted to examine the data collected from 714 domestic holidaymakers.FindingsResults demonstrate that awareness, cognitive and affective image, past visitation, perceived risk of traveling and perceived risk in international versus domestic travel are key factors; safety concerns enhance the cognitive image and perceived safety of the destination, but increase the perceived risk of traveling; and perceived social risk increases the perceived risk of traveling.Research limitations/implicationsData collection from only one country limits the generalizability of the conclusions.Practical implicationsConclusions allow gaining new insights regarding communication strategies in general, during and post-pandemic times.Originality/valueUsing a consolidated and empirical approach, this study provides a better understanding of the role of perceived risk and its effects on cognitive and affective image and travel intention. For instance, to the best of the author’s knowledge, it is the first study to consider the effects of social risk in the pandemic context. It also offers insights into the mediating effect of destination image and the moderating effects of perceived risk and past visitation.

Croatian Diaspora as a Potential Tourist Market: The Case of Canada

Diaspora members feel a strong connection to their homeland. Their motivations for travel in the homeland range from visiting the homeland, relatives, and friends, searching for their “roots”, attending important national and religious holidays, conferences and educational programmes to using health services, visiting tourist attractions and having a holiday. This research study aims to identify and analyse the personal motives of the Croatian diaspora residing in Canada for visiting and revisiting the homeland, their socio-demographic profile, travel characteristics, tourism experience and future travel intentions. The empirical research was conducted among members of the Croatian Canadian community. It is based on an online survey conducted from January to March 2022. The findings show that Croatian Canadians are an attractive market segment for diaspora tourism. The primary motives for travelling to Croatia are associated with visiting family and friends, visiting the homeland, and going on a beachside holiday. For the emigrant population, nostalgia/homesickness is the other crucial motive for travelling to Croatia, while for their descendants, it is sightseeing/visiting tourist attractions. Respondents born in Canada are more satisfied with tourism development than those born in Croatia. More than 80% of Croatian diaspora residing in Canada are definitely planning to visit or revisit their homeland in the future. The article provides new insights into the motivation and behaviour of Croatian Canadians as potential tourists visiting Croatia, which is insufficiently researched in tourism literature. It enables a better understanding of the unique characteristics and nature of the travels of diaspora members of two generational groups, which facilitates decision-makers to adapt to their needs. The study provides guidance for improved management of diaspora tourism.

I'm afraid to travel! Investigating the effect of perceived health risk on Malaysian travellers' post-pandemic perception and future travel intention

PurposeThis study investigates the effect of COVID-19 pandemic perceived health risk on traveller's post-pandemic perception and future travel intention. The study aims to provide insight into the unprecedented COVID-19 pandemic and its potential influence on tourist behaviour.Design/methodology/approachTwo hundred and forty-four responses were gathered quantitatively through an online survey. The research hypotheses were analysed using the partial least square structural equation modelling (PLS-SEM).FindingsThis study found that COVID-19 affects tourists' travel behaviour. Key findings found that perceived health risk discourages travel attitudes and eventually lessens their future travel intentions. Results also suggest future strategies/directions for restarting the tourism industry.Practical implicationsThe study outcome assists tourism stakeholders in understanding the changes in tourist behaviour amid the heightened perceived health risk of COVID-19. Tourism policymakers and industry players should consider exploring how to mitigate similar health crises in the future.Originality/valueBy extending the theory of planned behaviour (TPB), this study establishes a theoretical framework in exploring the interrelationships between perceived risk, post-pandemic perception and future travel intention. This study sets a significant research agenda for future tourism research in understanding the mechanism behind health risk perceptions and tourist behaviour.

An assessment of air passenger confidence a year into the COVID-19 crisis: A segmentation analysis of passengers in Norway

The COVID-19 crisis has become the most intense and long-lasting in the history of aviation. There is already a significant literature on the immediate impact of the outbreak, as well as on speculation on the future evolution of the industry. This paper seeks to contribute to this discussion by assessing a year into the crisis the demand related aspects and passenger behavioural impacts of the pandemic. Specifically, the paper aims to identify discrete market segments of air passengers according to their shared attitudes and preferences about air travel in light of the COVID-19 crisis, as well as past behaviour and future travel intentions. To achieve this, we analyse data from a large (n = 2096) online questionnaire survey of air passengers in Norway. The cluster analysis identifies four distinct passenger segments, with each displaying varying attitudes, behaviours, and levels of concern about air travel. One of these groups, described as the ‘Apprehensive Elders’, were identified as having the highest level of concern about flying, and subsequently showed a sharp decline in their intention to travel in the future. Another group, termed the ‘Cautious Commuters’, showed similarly enhanced levels of concerns about flying, but maintained a high propensity to fly following the pandemic despite these concerns. Regarding possible interventions to increase confidence in flying in the future, across all segments the data shows a clear preference for more ‘traditional’ active interventions, including wearing of face masks and enforcement of physical distancing, over and above passive or technological interventions. Norway represents a valuable case as a possible signal for future policy and practice in relation to the recovery of air travel following the pandemic. The findings have important implications for air transport managers and decision makers in terms of managing the perceptions and expectations of different passenger groups as air travel begins to return.

Decoding domestic tourism customers’ emotional responses to covid-19: A segmentation approach

ABSTRACT Tourists’ emotional responses to crises have been conceived from a unitary perspective despite the potential existence of different segments of emotional reactions. Using data from 412 residents drawn from Macau, this study segments their emotional responses toward the COVID-19 pandemic, characterizes the segments by their perceived travel risk and future travel intentions. The findings reveal that there are three segments of residents’ emotional responses to the COVID-19 pandemic, namely deeply depressed, depressed, and phlegmatic. The deeply depressed have strong negative sentiments toward the pandemic with the highest perceived travel risk and least desire to travel in the future. The depressed have moderate negative emotions toward the pandemic with moderate perceived travel risk and desire to travel in the future while the phlegmatic have indifferent positive and negative emotions toward the pandemic with the least perceived travel risk and highest desire to travel in the future. The implications of these findings with regard to how to restart tourism with the domestic tourism market are discussed.

Impact of Perceived Risk on Tourist Satisfaction and Future Travel Intentions: A Mediation–Moderation Analysis

This research study is conducted in the Kashmir Valley, which is rated heavenly for its natural beauty. However, it is also perceived as risky by the outsiders since 1989. Earlier, it was a very popular destination for tourists and for shooting of films. Kashmir still gets good number of tourists, but the puzzle of impact of perceived risks on their behaviour still remains blurred. This research study is an attempt to understand the behaviour of tourists visiting Kashmir in terms of satisfaction from tour and future travel-related intentions as an outcome of perceived risk. Tourist satisfaction as mediator and demographic variables as moderator are carried out to gain insight into the behaviour of these tourists. The results of the study show that tourist satisfaction and future travel intentions of tourists in the Kashmir Valley are not impacted by their perception of risks. The results are a valuable input for DMOs that suggests that risks at the destination cannot be taken as the default barrier to the promotion of tourism. The necessary supply-side interventions at the destination to mitigate identified perceived risks by tourists and tourism relationship strategies at the demand side to address tour satisfaction can reflect in rewarding future travel intentions like revisits and recommendations.

The Effects of COVID-19 on Future Domestic Travel Intentions in South Africa: A Stakeholder Perspective

This study seeks to unpack the implications that the COVID-19 pandemic has placed on the South African domestic tourism market. In particular, the study considers how, given the negative impacts that have been felt with international travel being largely restricted, many destinations who traditionally rely on tourism will approach domestic tourism post the restrictions. Given South Africa’s previous aggressive campaigns which sought to promote domestic tourism in the country, the value of this focus area cannot be overlooked. The need for empirical research that assesses the attitudes of people regarding travel and tourism beyond the pandemic in a country that has been one of the hardest-hit on the African continent is equally important in this respect. Data for the study was sourced from interviews with key informant personnel in the domain of tourism coupled with an online questionnaire survey that was collected from respondents through the Google Forms Application. The key findings from the study reveal that a majority of the respondents were generally satisfied with the management of the pandemic in the country and were willing to wait until all restrictions were lifted before travelling again. Moreover, many of the respondents felt that they would likely travel more domestically in order to assist the tourism industry recover post-COVID-19 and would actively help market the country to friends and relatives in assisting with the recovery marketing initiatives. However, major concerns were raised about the financial possibilities of the domestic tourists as well as the lack of effective communication and cooperation between the private sector and the government regarding tourism’s recovery plan.