Future Supply Research Articles

Desalination investment for copper mining: Barriers and opportunities in Chile

Global decarbonisation goals will not be met without a significant increase in the supply of critical minerals. However, there are numerous economic, environmental, social and regulatory barriers which may hinder potential future supplies. This study therefore examines the interlinkages of mineral extraction in the world's largest copper producing nation, Chile. Framed within the context of the mining industry's plans to significantly expand its use of desalination to alleviate water scarcity issues, as well as demands for the sector to leverage its investment in water infrastructure for sustainable development goals, this study identifies the primary barriers and opportunities associated with increased investment and expansion of desalination infrastructure within the Chilean copper mining sector. It applies an inductive, mixed-methods approach to gain cross-sectoral insights from 18 relevant stakeholders over two rounds of surveys, quantitatively determining the relative importance of the issues identified. The analysis finds that desalination's capacity to allow the mining industry to operate independently of freshwater availability, as well its potential role in alleviating broader water scarcity issues were the primary opportunities. The study further finds widespread support for initiatives to integrate renewables into desalination plants, incorporate public acceptance into the planning procedure, and ensure that mining continues to reduce its freshwater consumption, presenting a clear opportunity for sustainable expansion. The results also showed that regulatory and political uncertainty, followed by the lack of public acceptance of desalination are considerable barriers to its expansion. Further, quantitative analysis of perceived risks also highlighted significant disagreement between mining and non-mining stakeholder groups regarding the environmental impacts associated with desalination, indicating an overall lack of consensus. This study therefore invites further research into consensus-building around the issues identified. A further investigation of why particular perspectives are more prevalent among certain stakeholder groups is also suggested.

Bridging Quantitative and Qualitative Science for BECCS in Abandoned Croplands

AbstractBioenergy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS) plays a vital role in most climate change mitigation scenarios, where a solution for sustainable near‐term bioenergy expansion is to grow energy crops such as perennial grasses on recently abandoned cropland. There is a need to combine model‐based insights into theoretical potential and future biomass supply with more fine‐grained sociotechnical analysis to move toward realistic policies and innovation strategies. We combine natural science insights anchored in quantitative bioenergy modeling with qualitative social science anchored in the multi‐level perspective. Using these mixed methods enables a global‐to‐local‐to‐global level assessment of near‐term bioenergy recultivation opportunities for abandoned cropland. Norway is the local case. There are three main findings. First, the ongoing recultivation trends for food/feed production risks making gains in aboveground carbon stocks from natural regrowth on the mapped abandoned cropland over a 30‐year evaluation period almost negligible. Second, delaying a BECCS recultivation of abandoned cropland will make it impossible to reach high‐end mitigation potentials, and an accelerated BECCS recultivation guided by a policy push is needed to ensure stronger mitigation. Third, we unravel several real‐world challenges associated with bioenergy resource and supply modeling. Remote‐sensing techniques alone cannot capture actual land availability for land‐based climate change mitigation strategies. Local‐level sociotechnical conditions are generally found insufficiently supportive to align with the rapid near‐term bioenergy crop expansion found in 2°C scenarios from integrated assessment. The integration of mixed quantitative and qualitative methods is key to better understand the role of BECCS in climate change mitigation.

Securing the Future of UK Public-Interest News: Navigating Change With Foresight and Innovation

This article delves into the factors driving change in the UK’s public-interest news sector, pinpointing key uncertainties that shape its future. Through a participatory action research approach and scenario planning, the study News Futures 2035, seeks to answer the pivotal question: How can the UK ensure the ongoing supply of trustworthy, public-interest news? It stands out for its unique focus, enriching the debate among industry, academia, policymakers, and civil society on safeguarding the sector’s future. The research identified two primary, unpredictable elements with significant influence: the realm of policies, regulations, and governance; and the industry’s capacity for innovation to maintain the relevance of public-interest news for all stakeholders. The study highlights the indispensable role of collaborative action research and continuous dialogue among key stakeholders. It emphasizes the need for structured, cooperative efforts to navigate the complexities of policy, regulation, and consumer relevance, introducing the concept of back-channel deliberations, akin to track 2 diplomacy, as a valuable strategy for engaging diverse stakeholders in informal yet structured discussions. This method promises to foster a platform for innovative solutions and mutual understanding, addressing the challenges to the future supply of public-interest news. The participants’ commitment to advancing this dialogue through a dedicated forum underlines the importance of ongoing stakeholder engagement to ensure the sector’s relevance, sustainability, and societal impact.

International Comparative Analysis of Advanced Diagnostic Imaging Equipment Demand Characteristics Using the Bass Diffusion Model

Objectives: This paper proposed the direction of future supply and demand management policies through demand prediction and demand characteristics analysis of advanced diagnostic imaging equipment using new medical technology.Methods: This study used the Bass Diffusion Model to analyze demand characteristics for advanced diagnostic imaging equipment. Derived diffusion coefficients were applied for medium to long-term demand predictions (2021-2050). Parameter estimation employed non-linear regression analysis (SPSS 27.0). Demand characteristics were further analyzed using the ratio of the Bass model’s innovation to imitation coefficients for each country and device.Results: Comparing the imitation coefficients (<i>q/p</i> ratio) for computed tomography (CT) and magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) among South Korea, the United States, and Japan, South Korea has the highest <i>q/p</i> ratio for both CT and MRI. This implies that the influence of opinion leaders and group pressure is relatively more significant in South Korea, particularly in CT purchases. In the demand prediction results, South Korea’s <i>q/p</i> ratio for CT and MRI is notably larger, suggesting that institutional pressures and collective decision-making, rather than individual clinical decisions, play a significant role in the purchase of advanced diagnostic imaging Equipment. The <i>q/p</i> ratio for advanced diagnostic imaging Equipment in South Korea is higher than in other countries, reflecting a large power distance in the adoption of these technologies.Conclusions: This study utilizes the Bass Diffusion Model to predict the demand for advanced diagnostic imaging equipment in South Korea, Japan, and the United States. Findings highlight that imitation, not innovation, is the main driver of diffusion, with South Korea showing a faster adoption rate for CT and MRI. The study identifies factors influencing diffusion in South Korea, noting the impact of the quantity system on CT and the absence of influence on MRI. CT diffusion is positively linked to the quantity-based payment system, while MRI remains unaffected.

Tree adaptive growth (TAG) model: a life-history theory-based analytical model for post-thinning forest stand dynamics.

Understanding stand dynamics is essential for predicting future wood supply and associated ecosystem services for sustainable forest management. The dynamics of natural stands can be characterized by age-dependent growth and yield models. However, dynamics in managed stands appear somewhat different from that of natural stands, especially with difficulties in explaining the phenomenon of post-thinning overcompensation, based upon some long-term observations. Though overcompensation is an ideal outcome for the forest sector, it had been largely treated as an outlier and thus ignored or dismissed as "out-of-the-ordinary". We developed a life history theory-based, state-dependent model of Tree Adaptive Growth (TAG) to investigate this phenomenon and verified that overcompensation should be a common outcome in post-thinning forest stands when the stand growth over time is sigmoid shaped. TAG posits that individual trees will invest proportionately more into growth following thinning because it is evolutionarily adaptive to do so. Our investigation of the model's behavior unearthed diverse stand growth patterns similar to that which is observed in the empirical datasets and predicted by a statistics-based Tree's Compensatory Growth (TreeCG) model. A simple, theory-driven, analytical model, TAG, can reproduce the diverse growth patterns in post-thinning stands and thus assist addressing silviculture-related issues. The model can be applied to various jurisdictions even without detailed regional growth and yield relationships and is capable of incorporating the effects of other time sensitive factors like fertilization, pruning, and climate change.

Towards a Future Hydrogen Supply Chain: A Review of Technologies and Challenges

The overuse of fossil fuels has caused a serious energy crisis and environmental pollution. Due to these challenges, the search for alternative energy sources that can replace fossil fuels is necessary. Hydrogen is a widely acknowledged future energy carrier because of its nonpolluting properties and high energy density. To realize a hydrogen economy in the future, it is essential to construct a comprehensive hydrogen supply chain that can make hydrogen a key energy carrier. This paper reviews the various technologies involved in the hydrogen supply chain, encompassing hydrogen production, storage, transportation, and utilization technologies. Then, the challenges of constructing a hydrogen supply chain are discussed from techno-economic, social, and policy perspectives, and prospects for the future development of a hydrogen supply chain are presented in light of these challenges.

Water Supply Planning in the Face of Drought and Ecosystem Flows: Examining the Impact of the Bay-Delta Plan on Bay Area Water Supply.

In California, recent Bay-Delta Plan legislation attempts to balance water supply and ecosystem protection by requiring 40% of the flow to remain in-stream in the Tuolumne River from February through June. Serious questions remain about what this means for the Bay Area water supply, especially during drought. Our work develops a new approach to analyze how in-stream flow policy coupled with climate change could impact regional water supply over the coming decades. Results show that the new in-stream flow demand would exceed urban water deliveries in a typical year. In wet years, water supply performance is minimally impacted, but in drought, the policy can lead to less water in storage, delayed reservoir recovery, and increased time at critically low storage. Storage impact exceeding 50 000 acre-feet (60 million m3) is anticipated with at least 18% frequency, demonstrating that, climate uncertainty notwithstanding, this impact must be planned for and managed to ensure a reliable future water supply.

Mechanism and process study of lithium extraction by 2-ethylhexyl salicylate extraction system

With the increasing demand for lithium resources, recovery of lithium from solution with high Na/Li ratio is an effective way to meet the growing demand. Salicylate extraction system has been found to be an effective system for Li/Na separation. In this work, the studies of equilibrium, process and mechanism were carried out for the 2-ethylhexyl salicylate (ES) and trialkyl phosphine oxide (TRPO) co-extraction system. The factors affecting lithium extraction such as composition of the organic phase, the conditions of aqueous phase, extraction time and acid-alkali tolerance of the ES extraction system were systematically investigated; According to the equilibrium study, a series of process studies were carried out for lithium recovery from mother solution of lithium carbonate, and the whole process including extraction, elution, stripping and regeneration was designed, and through the process, 99% of lithium was recovered and lithium-rich solution containing 25.85 g/L Li and 0.08 g/L Na was obtained. In the mechanism study, the extraction process was proved as a thermodynamic spontaneous entropy increase process; At the molecular level, the coordination mechanism was first expounded by ultraviolet–visible (UV–Vis) and fluorescence spectrum (Fl), which was further confirmed by 1H NMR and Fourier transform infrared (FT-IR). The current study points a way to separation of lithium from alkaline solutions, which will support the future supply of lithium in a more economical and sustainable manner.

Perovskite Nanocrystals: Superior Luminogens for Food Quality Detection Analysis.

With the global limited food resources receiving grievous damage from frequent climate changes and ascending global food demand resulting from increasing population growth, perovskite nanocrystals with distinctive photoelectric properties have emerged as attractive and prospective luminogens for the exploitation of rapid, easy operation, low cost, highly accurate, excellently sensitive, and good selective biosensors to detect foodborne hazards in food practices. Perovskite nanocrystals have demonstrated supreme advantages in luminescent biosensing for food products due to their high photoluminescence (PL) quantum yield, narrow full width at half-maximum PL, tunable PL in the entire visible spectrum, easy preparation, and various modification strategies compared with conventional semiconductors. Herein, we have carried out a comprehensive discussion concerning perovskite nanocrystals as luminogens in the application of high-performance biosensing of foodborne hazards for food products, including a brief introduction of perovskite nanocrystals, perovskite nanocrystal-based biosensors, and their application in different categories of food products. Finally, the challenges and opportunities faced by perovskite nanocrystals as superior luminogens were proposed to promote their practicality in the future food supply.

Concurrently assessing water supply and demand is critical for evaluating vulnerabilities to climate change

AbstractAligning water supply with demand is a challenge, particularly in areas with large seasonal variation in precipitation and those dominated by winter precipitation. Climate change is expected to exacerbate this challenge, increasing the need for long‐term planning. Long‐term projections of water supply and demand that can aid planning are mostly published as agency reports, which are directly relevant to decision‐making but less likely to inform future research. We present 20‐year water supply and demand projections for the Columbia River, produced in partnership with the Washington State Dept. of Ecology. This effort includes integrated modeling of future surface water supply and agricultural demand by 2040 and analyses of future groundwater trends, residential demand, instream flow deficits, and curtailment. We found that shifting timing in water supply could leave many eastern Washington watersheds unable to meet late‐season out‐of‐stream demands. Increasing agricultural or residential demands in watersheds could exacerbate these late‐season vulnerabilities, and curtailments could become more common for rivers with federal or state instream flow rules. Groundwater trends are mostly declining, leaving watersheds more vulnerable to surface water supply or demand changes. Both our modeling framework and agency partnership can serve as an example for other long‐term efforts that aim to provide insights for water management in a changing climate elsewhere around the world.

Optimal water tariffs for domestic, agricultural and industrial use

Consider a water supplier who determines sales rates with the goals of maximizing profits, protecting consumer welfare, and ensuring adequate future water supplies. Buyers are differentiated and can use the water for domestic, agricultural, and industrial purposes. We propose a leader-follower finite-horizon differential game. The leader (the water supplier) determines the selling price and the followers (consumers) react by requesting their optimal amount of water. We calculate a feedback Stackelberg equilibrium assuming that all user demand is satisfied (interior equilibrium). We compare two different tariff schemes: linear tariffs (the price paid is a multiple of the volume of water purchased), and increasing block tariffs (the unit price is lower for quantities of water that do not exceed a fixed threshold). We show that block pricing is never optimal and linear pricing is always preferred.

Reassessing tin circularity and criticality

AbstractTin is an important metal for society with a high risk of supply disruptions. It is, therefore, classified as a critical material in many parts of the world. An exception is the European Union, for which tin was classified as a non‐critical material in 2023. However, there are many discrepancies in the literature regarding the definitions and values of the indicators used to determine tin criticality in general, and recycling indicators in particular. Values for end‐of‐life recycling rate (EoL RR) range between 20% and 75%, and values for end‐of‐life recycling input rate (EoL RIR) range between 11% and 32%. In this paper, we critically assess the circularity and criticality indicator values for tin and calculate new values using material flow analysis. The new values for tin recycling indicators are lower than those used in most previous research, with a global EoL RR of 16% and an EoL RIR of 11% in 2017. Based on the updated recycling values, combined with a highly concentrated supply, high import reliance, and difficult substitution, we argue that the European Union should classify tin as a critical material. This reclassification can lead to more policy attention for tin, which can help reduce the impact of future supply disruptions and increase the resilience of the European and global tin supply chains.

Child Health Needs and the Pediatric Rheumatology Workforce: 2020-2040.

The Pediatric Rheumatology (PRH) workforce supply in the United States does not meet the needs of children. Lack of timely access to PRH care is associated with poor outcomes for children with rheumatic diseases. This article is part of a Pediatrics supplement focused on anticipating the future pediatric subspecialty workforce supply. It draws on information in the literature, American Board of Pediatrics data, and findings from a model that estimates the future supply of pediatric subspecialists developed by the Sheps Center for Health Services Research at the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, Strategic Modeling and Analysis Ltd., and the American Board of Pediatrics Foundation. PRH has a smaller workforce per capita of children than most other pediatric subspecialties. The model demonstrates that the clinical workforce equivalent of pediatric rheumatologists in 2020 was only 0.27 per 100 000 children, with a predicted increase to 0.47 by 2040. Although the model predicts a 72% increase in providers, this number remains inadequate to provide sufficient care given the number of children with rheumatic diseases, especially in the South and West regions. The likely reasons for the workforce shortage are multifactorial, including lack of awareness of the field, low salaries compared with most other medical specialties, concerns about working solo or in small group practices, and increasing provider retirement. Novel interventions are needed to increase the workforce size. The American College of Rheumatology has recognized the dire consequences of this shortage and has developed a workforce solutions initiative to tackle these problems.

Child Health Needs and the Pediatric Nephrology Subspecialty Workforce: 2020-2040.

Pediatric nephrology is dedicated to caring for children with kidney disease, a unique blend of acute care and chronic longitudinal patient relationships. Though historically a small field, trainee interest has declined over the past 2 decades. This has led to growing alarm about the health of the pediatric nephrology workforce, although concerns have been hampered by a lack of available data to enable feasible projections. This article is part of a supplement that anticipates the future pediatric subspecialty workforce supply. It draws on existing literature, data from the American Board of Pediatrics, and findings from a model that estimates the future supply of pediatric subspecialists developed by the Carolina Health Workforce Research Center at the University of North Carolina Chapel Hill's Cecil G. Sheps Center for Health Services Research and Strategic Modeling Analytics & Planning Ltd. The workforce projections from 2020 to 2040 incorporate population growth, clinical effort, and geographic trends and model alternate scenarios adjusting for changes in trainee interest, clinical efforts, and workforce attrition. The baseline model predicts growth of clinical work equivalents by 26% by 2040, but further widening geographic disparities worsen the existing mismatch between supply, clinical need, and market demand. The worst-case scenario projects 13% growth by 2040 which, at best, maintains the status quo of an already strained workforce. The models do not account for many factors expected to heighten demand over the coming decades. Urgent reforms are necessary now. Proposed solutions require multipronged changes in education and training pathways, remuneration, clinical practice models, and government policy.

Child Health Needs and the Pediatric Cardiology Workforce: 2020-2040.

This article evaluates the pediatric cardiology (PC) workforce and forecasts its future supply. Produced as part of a supplement in Pediatrics, this effort represents a collaboration among the American Board of Pediatrics Foundation, the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill's Carolina Health Workforce Research Center, the Strategic Modeling and Analysis Ltd., and members of the pediatric subspecialty community. PC is a complex subspecialty including care from fetal life through adulthood and in practice settings that range from the outpatient clinic to procedural settings to the cardiac ICU. Complex subdisciplines include imaging, electrophysiology, heart failure, and interventional and critical care. Using American Board of Pediatrics data, US Census Bureau data, and data from the modeling project, projections were created to model the subspecialty workforce through 2040. Across all modeling scenarios considered, there is considerable projected growth in the supply of pediatric cardiologists by 2040. However, there is significant regional variation in the projected supply of trainees relative to demand in terms of local population growth, with evidence of a likely mismatch between areas surrounding training centers versus areas of greatest workforce need. In addition, this article highlights areas for future focus, including efforts to attract more residents to the subspecialty in general, particularly underrepresented minority members; increased support, more part-time career options, and improved academic career advancement for women in PC; and the development of better "real-time" workforce data to guide trainees and training programs in decisions regarding sub-subspecialty job availability.

Preface

In recent years, many delegates turned their attention to the fields of energy and power and put forward a series of constructive suggestions and recommendations on promoting the healthy development of the new energy generation industry and the green and low-carbon development of power, for example, “Building a new power system with new energy as the main body is an important task in the process of hitting carbon peak and attaining carbon neutrality, and new energy power generation will become the main force of future power supply.”In order to bring in the latest progress in theory, technology and application in the fields of energy and power at home and abroad in recent years, and show the latest research achievements, 2023 5th International Conference on Energy, Power and Grid (ICEPG 2023) was held in Guangzhou, China from September 22nd to 24th, 2023. It was attended by about 200 participants worldwide.The Conference presented an outstanding program of papers covering the most recent advances in energy and power, including Nuclear Engineering and Hydrogen Energy Resources, Power System Protection, Operation and Control, Power Quality and Electromagnetic Compatibility, Integrated Optics and Electro-Optical Devices, etc. The papers in this Proceedings published by Journal of Physics: Conference Series (JPCS) represent a collection of the invited speeches and other contributions.At this meeting we had a comprehensive overview of this fascinating field and of future scenarios thanks to the participation of distinguished delegates around the globe. The Conference was presided by Dr. Ziyu Chen from South China University of Technology, China. Professor Jizhong Zhu (South China University of Technology, China), the Conference Chair, first delivered an opening speech and then a keynote speech on Digital Power Grid Technology and Applications. What’s more, Prof. Wenjie Feng (South China University of Technology, China) performed a speech on Recent Progress of Millimeter-wave Circuits Using Groove Gap Waveguide Technology, Prof. Zhou Wu (Chongqing University, China) on Recurrent Neural Networks: Theoretical and Application Progress, and Assoc. Prof. Mahdi Deimi Dasht Bayaz (ITMO University, Russia) on Feasibility and Comparison of Using Integrated Solar-Base Systems for a Sample Residential Building in Various Climate Conditions. The participants raised questions based on the speeches and interacted with the speakers and people around, leading to a heated discussion on the latest research findings and trends in related fields.We would like to thank all the participants, especially those who contributed speeches, posters and manuscripts, for making ICEPG 2023 such an exciting and memorable conference. We thank the members of Technical Program Committee for putting together so outstanding a program. Finally, we acknowledge the staff of JPCS for their tireless efforts in the preparation of this volume, and all our colleagues whose friendly and efficient service contributed much to the success of the Conference.The Committee of ICEPG 2023List of Committee Member is available in this pdf.

Child Health and the Neonatal-Perinatal Medicine Workforce: 2020-2040.

In 2022, 3.7 million children were born in the United States, of whom ∼600 000 received care from a neonatologist. The dramatic growth of the neonatal-perinatal medicine (NPM) workforce from 375 in 1975 to 5250 in 2022 has paralleled exploding clinical demand. As newborn medicine continues to push the limits of gestational viability and medical complexity, the NPM workforce must advance in numbers, clinical capability, scientific discovery, and leadership. This article, as part of an American Board of Pediatrics Foundation-sponsored supplement that is designed to project the future of the pediatric subspecialty workforce, features a discussion of the NPM workforce's history and current status, factors that have shaped its current profile, and some plausible scenarios of the workforce's needs and configuration in the future. In the article, we use an analytical model that forecasts the growth trajectory of the neonatologist workforce from 2020 through 2040. The model uses recent data on the number of neonatologists and clinical work equivalents per 100 000 children and projects future workforce supply under several theoretical scenarios created by modifying key baseline parameters. The predictions of this model confirm the need for a greater sustainable clinical capacity of the NPM workforce. Several future trends indicate that there may be geographic shortages of neonatologists, similar to expected shortages in other pediatric subspecialties. We do not address what an appropriate target for workforce size should be with the model or this article because the current and projected geographic variability in the NPM workforce and risk-appropriate care suggest that a uniform answer is unlikely.

Multi-scenario research on the low-carbon transition in energy-deficient cities-view from the power supply side

Cities are the places where power supply demand is highly concentrated. How to ensure power supply security while realizing low-carbon transition is the key challenge faced by the construction of new power systems. In large cities with a shortage of local power generation resources, this problem is particularly prominent. The study takes Guangzhou city as a case study area, which has the typical characteristics of “serious energy shortage and extremely high-power load density” in China. This study explores the differences in power supply capacity, structure, carbon emissions, and power supply costs under the six different scenarios set up from the power supply side for future power supply structures. The optimal power supply modes have been matched for cities with different development characteristics and needs. The change in power supply structure and the realization path under the optimal power supply modes are discussed. The results show that the power supply capacity of Guangzhou is constantly improving under different scenarios, with the highest self-sufficiency rates of power production capacity and power production quantity reaching 80% and 50%, respectively, by 2030. Despite this, Guangzhou still does not have the basic conditions for building a new power supply system through the development of local high-proportion renewable energy only due to the limitation of resource endowment. The combination with increasing the ratio of renewable energy in outsourcing power is an inevitable choice for low-carbon transition for the city. This study provides a new idea on how to build a new power supply system for an energy shortage city. It can be used as a reference for safe power supply and low-carbon transition for the power supply sectors of other cities.

Child Health Needs and the Pediatric Emergency Medicine Workforce: 2020-2040.

Approximately 30 million ill and injured children annually visit emergency departments (EDs) in the United States. Data suggest that patients seen in pediatric EDs by board-certified pediatric emergency medicine (PEM) physicians receive higher-quality care than those cared for by non-PEM physicians. These benefits, coupled with the continued growth in PEM since its inception in the early 1990s, have impacted child health broadly. This article is part of a Pediatrics supplement focused on predicting the future pediatric subspecialty workforce supply by drawing on the American Board of Pediatrics workforce data and a microsimulation model of the future pediatric subspecialty workforce. The article discusses the utilization of acute care services in EDs, reviews the current state of the PEM subspecialty workforce, and presents projected numbers of PEM subspecialists at the national, census region, and census division on the basis of this pediatric subspecialty workforce supply model through 2040. Implications of this model on education and training, clinical practice, policy, and future workforce research are discussed. Findings suggest that, if the current growth in the field of PEM continues on the basis of the increasing number and size of fellowship programs, even with a potential reduction in percentage of clinical time and attrition of senior physicians, the PEM workforce is anticipated to increase nationally. However, the maldistribution of PEM physicians is likely to be perpetuated with the highest concentration in New England and Mid-Atlantic regions and "PEM deserts" in less populated areas.

Child Health Needs and the Pediatric Critical Care Medicine Workforce: 2020-2040.

This article, focused on the current and future pediatric critical care medicine (PCCM) workforce, is part of a supplement in Pediatrics anticipating the future supply of the pediatric subspecialty workforce. It draws on information available in the literature, data from the American Board of Pediatrics, and findings from a model that estimates the future supply of pediatric subspecialists developed by the American Board of Pediatrics Foundation in collaboration with the Carolina Workforce Research Center at the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill's Cecil G. Sheps Center for Health Services Research and Strategic Modeling and Analysis Ltd. A brief history of the field of PCCM is provided, followed by an in-depth examination of the current PCCM workforce and a subsequent evaluation of workforce forecasts from 2020 to 2040. Under baseline conditions, the PCCM workforce is expected to increase by 105% during the forecasted period, more than any other pediatric subspecialty. Forecasts are modeled under a variety of multifactorial conditions meant to simulate the effects of changes to the supply of PCCM subspecialists, with only modest changes observed. Future PCCM workforce demand is unclear, although some suggest an oversupply may exist and that market forces may correct this. The findings generate important questions regarding the future state of the PCCM workforce and should be used to guide trainees considering a PCCM career, subspecialty leaders responsible for hosting training programs, staffing ICUs, and governing bodies that oversee training program accreditation and subspecialist certification.