Future Subscriber Research Articles

Targeting for Long-Term Outcomes

Decision makers often want to target interventions so as to maximize an outcome that is observed only in the long term. This typically requires delaying decisions until the outcome is observed or relying on simple short-term proxies for the long-term outcome. Here, we build on the statistical surrogacy and policy learning literatures to impute the missing long-term outcomes and then approximate the optimal targeting policy on the imputed outcomes via a doubly robust approach. We first show that conditions for the validity of average treatment effect estimation with imputed outcomes are also sufficient for valid policy evaluation and optimization; furthermore, these conditions can be somewhat relaxed for policy optimization. We apply our approach in two large-scale proactive churn management experiments at The Boston Globe by targeting optimal discounts to its digital subscribers with the aim of maximizing long-term revenue. Using the first experiment, we evaluate this approach empirically by comparing the policy learned using imputed outcomes with a policy learned on the ground-truth, long-term outcomes. The performance of these two policies is statistically indistinguishable, and we rule out large losses from relying on surrogates. Our approach also outperforms a policy learned on short-term proxies for the long-term outcome. In a second field experiment, we implement the optimal targeting policy with additional randomized exploration, which allows us to update the optimal policy for future subscribers. Over three years, our approach had a net-positive revenue impact in the range of $4–$5 million compared with the status quo. This paper was accepted by Eric Anderson, marketing. Funding: This work was supported by Boston Globe Media. Supplemental Material: The online appendix and data are available at https://doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.2023.4881 .

Subscribers Forecasting of Netflix Based on Multiple Linear Models

Netflix is one of the world's leading entertainment services, with millions of subscribers all over the world. To make a prediction of the expected number of future subscribers is a meaningful and valuable research topic. However, there is no authoritative model to help make predictions. Therefore, this study will explore the relationship between possible factors and the number of future subscribers in terms of the data from Netflix over the years. Subsequently, some candidate multiple linear regression models are constructed and the “best” model is selected to help make predictions. The final model shows that the number of subscribers is related to four variables, i.e., a negative relationship with the price of the basic plan, a positive relationship with the price of the standard plan, the number of countries where Netflix is available and the medium level of annual world income. The data on the number of subscribers over the years shows an increase in subscribers every year, as well as the amount of growth varies from year to year. In other words, the increase in the price of the basic plan may lead to a decrease in the number of subscribers, while the increase in the price of the standard plan, in the number of countries where Netflix is available and in the medium level of annual world income may lead to an incline in it. These results shed light on guiding further exploration of having a practical method to predict the number of future subscribers for Netflix.

Low cost intent driven future multi-media content access system and network

The advent of internet-based video streaming service has changed the paradigm of streaming content delivery. However, there has been a call for traditional satellite and the online platform to coexist to improve the access to content delivered to subscribers. In addition, revenue earning is also challenging for service providers especially those unknown to subscribers. Therefore, it is important to design a solution that enables the coexistence of traditional satellite and online platform. The system should also improve subscriber’s capability to gain awareness of different providers and their associated content. The discussion in this paper proposes a novel network architecture that addresses these concerns. The proposed network architecture is a content aware independent architecture platform for accessing multi-media content for future subscribers. Results obtained from the performance analysis show that the proposed architecture reduces the content access costs by 39.3% on the average. Furthermore, analysis shows that the acquisition costs are reduced by 67.3% and 56.4% when 9 and 12 subscribers share the receiver station as compared to the case where trackers are incorporated in existing approach. Increasing the number of subscribers that share the receiving station from 9 to 12 also reduces acquisition costs by 25% on average.

Valuation of Netflix, Inc.1

Intended for MBAs, this case concerns the valuation of Netflix, Inc., which was the largest U.S. online movie rental subscription service in early 2009. After reviewing Netflix's historical financial and customer relationship performance, this case presents three approaches for valuing the firm in early 2009. The first is a company-level discounted cash flow analysis based on pro forma projections of revenues, earnings, and cash flow. The second approach attempts to judge whether Netflix's prevailing market value was reasonable by comparing selected company ratios with those of comparable companies. The final approach is based on the assumption that Netflix's enterprise value (EV) was the sum of its current and future subscribers' values (discounted present values, to be exact). There is also a spreadsheet available for students (UVA-F-1610X).

Traffic Network and Optimization a Future Subscriber's Mobile Telecom Operator in Train

In this work, we studied the behavior and mobility of telecom subscribers into a train for now and predict a future telecom movement subscriber and have a perfect resources data signal of an operator mobile telecom, we used a deterministic and a probabilistic method. the train in our model example travels through a cellular network and passed into four zones (Z1, Z2, Z3 and Z4), each one is characterized by: topography, numbers of the cellular network, types of network (GSM, GPRS, UMTS ...), numbers of subscribers, types of subscribers(staffs, students, workers and others), numbers of operators (Operator 1, Operator 2 and Operator 3). We have studied statistics in deterministic and probabilistic vision of traffic telecom; the model used is approach to vehicular traffic model.

Valuation of Netflix, Inc

Intended for MBAs, this case concerns the valuation of Netflix, Inc., which was the largest U.S. online movie rental subscription service in early 2009. After reviewing Netflix’s historical financial and customer relationship performance, this case presents three approaches for valuing the firm in early 2009. The first is a company-level discounted cash flow analysis based on pro forma projections of revenues, earnings, and cash flow. The second approach attempts to judge whether the prevailing market value of Netflix was reasonable by comparing selected company ratios with those of comparable companies. The final approach is based on the assumption that Netflix’s enterprise value (EV) was the sum of its current and future subscribers’ values (discounted present values, to be exact). There is also a spreadsheet available for students (UVA-S-F-1610).

Interactivity with ‘Generation Y’ and small southwestern community newspapers

This 2003 study explores what newspapers under 15,000 circulation are doing on-line in their attempt to interact with “Generation Y” in order to win them as readers and future subscribers. There are more newspapers published under 15,000 circulation than any other type in America. The results are startling. The small southwest dailies in this study have dramatic documented circulation loss from 1996 to 2001. News executives self-report they are trying desperately in their newsrooms to interact on-line with readers despite a serious problem of constant reporter turnover.

Acceptance of Subscriber Authentication Methods For Mobile Telephony Devices

Mobile phones are now an accepted part of everyday life, with users becoming more reliant on the services that they can provide. In the vast majority of systems, the only security to prevent unauthorized use of the handset is a four digit Personal Identification Number (PIN). This paper presents the findings of a survey into the opinions of subscribers regarding the need for security in mobile devices, their use of current methods, and their attitudes towards alternative approaches that could be employed in the future. It is concluded that, although the need for security is understood and appreciated, the current PIN-based approach is under-utilized and can, therefore, be considered to provide inadequate protection in many cases. Surveyed users responded positively towards alternative methods of authentication, such as fingerprint scanning and voice verification. Based upon these findings, the paper concludes that a non-intrusive, and possibly hybrid, method of authentication (using a combination of techniques) would best satisfy the needs of future subscribers.

Optical CDMA in Broadband Communication – Scope and Applications

This paper explores the scope and applicability of optical code division multiple access schemes, in catering to the ambitious network requirements of the future subscriber population. A comprehensive report is made of the latest scenario that optical CDMA offers to the local area network environment in particular, and to broadband service sector in general. Different aspects of OCDMA communication systems are presented, tracing the chronological evolution spanning over the past two decades. The review concludes that notwithstanding the yet-to-mature optical component technology, OCDMA stands as a viable alternative to the prevalent multiple access methods in some broadband applications.

Design and performance of an angled physical contact type multifiber connector

An angled, physical contact type multifiber connector is developed on the basis of a structural design which enables direct fiber endface contact between multifiber arrays. The direct contact is achieved by utilizing the elastic nature of a ferrule material under compressive force. The fabricated connector provides a low insertion loss of 0.2 dB and a high return loss of 58.8 dB without index-matching. This connector is used in the successful development of push-on type and backpanel type 16-fiber connectors with a low insertion loss of 0.25 dB and a high return loss of 58.0 dB for future subscriber networks.

A Field Trial of Fiber Optic Subscriber Loop Systems Utilizing Wavelength-Division Multiplexers

Future subscriber loops will provide various services including broad-band video. Fiber optic technology is the key for introducing these services. The Electrical Communication Laboratories (ECL) of Nippon Telegraph and Telephone Public Corporation (NTT) have been promoting research and development on basic technology of fiber optic subscriber loops, and studying the ways to use fiber optic subscriber loops for new services. As one of the programs, a field trial of fiber optic subscriber loops was planned and conducted in the Yokosuka area from April 1980 until May 1981. This paper first describes fiber optic transmission technologies for subscriber loops. Then, the system configuration and experimental results of the Yokosuka field trial are presented.

Progress Towards Digital Subscriber Line Services and Signaling

With digital connectivity, future subscribers will be able to exercise local and network services involving the routine delivery, management, and processing of information. Accelerated by rapidly advancing technology, the evolutionary process towards digital connectivity and integrated voice and data services in the network is underway. This paper describes the methods of integrating voice and information capability into the telecommunications network. The attributes of this network will include the availability of digital connectivity directly to the subscriber, the availability of a robust signaling means between the subscriber and his local switching office, and common channel signaling to implement all interexchange signaling. Issues of interest include an overview of digital subscriber connectivity, signaling and information structures for these kinds of lines, communications protocols, and general network considerations for the provision of information services. Partitioning of intelligence between intelligent subscriber terminals and controllers and their switching system is investigated. The use of message and virtual channel switching facilities to handle limited information rate services is discussed. Finally, an exploratory digital subscriber line under investigation at Bell Laboratories is described.