Future Seismic Hazard Research Articles

The correlation between strain rate and earthquake size – A Bayesian probability approach for indicating seismic hazard in the Himalaya and adjacent areas

The correlation between the seismicity and strain rate (SR, in 10-9/yr) is investigated through a combined Bayesian statistical approach to identify the possible locales of seismic hazard in the Himalaya and adjacent areas. The primary result shows that the maximum number of earthquakes in all magnitude (Mw) classes occur in the moderate 30 – 60 SR class. The Bayesian modelled parameter (µ) value for earthquakes in all four SR classes is 0.1315 (0 – 30), 0.1286 (30 – 60), 0.1386 (60 – 90), and 0.1504 (90 – 180). As the µ value is highest in the SR class (90 – 180), the probability of occurrence of larger magnitude event is more. The probability analysis indicates that the future seismic hazard (Mw > 6.0) will be collocated in the highest SR class (90 – 180) with a probability of 35.10 %. This SR class occupies 15 % of the studied area. However, the other SR classes are equally significant for Mw > 6.0 earthquake where the probability varies between 20.55 % (0 – 30), 21.29 % (30 – 60), and 23.06 % (60 – 90) covering 40 %, 30 %, and 15 % of the studied area respectively.

Numerical simulation of stress evolution and seismic moment budget along the central segments of the Xianshuihe-Xiaojiang fault system: Implications for seismic hazard assessment

The central segments of the Xianshuihe-Xiaojiang fault system (CSXXFS), which intersect densely populated areas, have remained seismically quiet without any strong earthquakes of M ≥ 7 for nearly two centuries. As such, conducting a comprehensive seismic hazard assessment of the CSXXFS serves as a crucial component of disaster mitigation efforts. To achieve this, we developed a finite element model that integrates heterogeneous mechanical properties constrained by interseismic deformation to estimate the fault locking depths within the CSXXFS. Subsequently, we performed an analysis of the seismic moment budget and Coulomb stress change to comprehensively assess the seismic hazards in the vicinity of the CSXXFS. Our findings revealed an overall average locking depth of 10 km for the Xianshuihe-Xiaojiang fault system (XXFS) and 15 km for the Daliangshan fault (DLSF). The discrepancy between the seismogenic depth and the fault locking depth indicates the presence of deep creep in certain segments of the CSXXFS. Additionally, historical earthquakes have caused stress modulation, resulting in potential earthquakes being either delayed or advanced in different segments of the CSXXFS. Specifically, the future seismic hazard is delayed in the entire Zemuhe fault (ZMHF), the northern segment of the Anninghe fault (ANHF), the southern section of the Shimian-Yuexi segment of the north Daliangshan fault (NDLSF), and the southernmost part of the south Daliangshan fault (SDLSF). Conversely, the potential earthquake on the Mianning-Xichang segment of the ANHF and the majority of the DLSF have been advanced due to positive earthquake-induced stress. Our estimation of the seismic budget suggests that the ANHF, ZMHF, NDLSF, and SDLSF have the potential to host earthquakes with magnitudes of M 6.9, M 7.3, M 7.4, and M 7.1, respectively. By adopting this integrated seismic hazard analysis, we highlight the necessity of closely evaluating potential risks and implementing appropriate mitigation strategies in this area.

Seismogenic Fault Model for the 2021 Ms 6.4 Yangbi, China, Earthquake, Constraints from Multisource Data

Abstract Deciphering a comprehensive 3D fault model for the regions with moderate-to-strong earthquakes is crucial for understanding earthquake triggering mechanisms and assessing future seismic hazards. On 21 May 2021, a massive Ms 6.4 earthquake occurred in Yangbi, Dali City, China, near the northern Red River fault zone. Despite numerous studies conducted over the past two years, the seismogenic fault of this earthquake remains a topic of controversy. In this article, we refine the workflow for 3D construction of fault surfaces from Riesner et al. (2017) and used it for the Yangbi earthquake. We constructed a seismogenic fault model for the Yangbi earthquake and Caoping fault from the collected multisource data. One utilizes a combination of focal mechanisms and relocated hypocenters, whereas the other combines geological and geophysical data from the study area. Upon analyzing these two fault models and the relocated hypocenter data, we propose that the seismogenic fault in the Yangbi earthquake is an undiscovered blind fault or a secondary blind fault of the Weixi–Qiaohou fault, rather than the surface-emerging Caoping fault.

Coseismic deformation and fault slip distribution of the 2023 MW7.8 and MW7.6 earthquakes in Türkiye

On February 6, 2023, a devastating earthquake with a moment magnitude of MW7.8 struck the town of Pazarcik in south-central Türkiye, followed by another powerful earthquake with a moment magnitude of MW7.6 that struck the nearby city of Elbistan 9 h later. To study the characteristics of surface deformation caused by this event and the influence of fault rupture, this study calculated the static coseismic deformation of 56 stations and dynamic displacement waveforms of 15 stations using data from the Turkish national fixed global navigation satellite system (GNSS) network. A maximum static coseismic displacement of 0.38 m for the MW7.8 Kahramanmaras earthquake was observed at station ANTE, 36 km from the epicenter, and a maximum dynamic coseismic displacement of 4.4 m for the MW7.6 Elbistan earthquake was observed at station EKZ1, 5 km from the epicenter. The rupture-slip distributions of the two earthquakes were inverted using GNSS coseismic deformation as a constraint. The results showed that the Kahramanmaras earthquake rupture segment was distinct and exposed on the ground, resulting in significant rupture slip along the Amanos and Pazarcik fault segments of the East Anatolian Fault. The maximum slip in the Pazarcik fault segment was 10.7 m, and rupture occurred at depths of 0–15 km. In the Cardak fault region, the Elbistan earthquake caused significant ruptures at depths of 0–12 km, with the largest amount of slip reaching 11.6 m. The Coulomb stress change caused by the Kahramanmaras earthquake rupture along the Cardak fault segment was approximately 2 bars, and the area of increased Coulomb stress corresponded to the subsequent rupture region of the MW7.6 earthquake. Thus, it is likely that the MW7.8 earthquake triggered or promoted the MW7.6 earthquake. Based on the cumulative stress impact of the MW7.8 and MW7.6 events, the southwestern segment of the East Anatolian Fault, specifically the Amanos fault segment, experienced a Coulomb rupture stress change exceeding 2 bars, warranting further attention to assess its future seismic hazard risk.

Repeated Coseismic Uplift of Coastal Lagoons Above the Patton Bay Splay Fault System, Montague Island, Alaska, USA

AbstractCoseismic slip on the Patton Bay splay fault system during the 1964 Mw 9.2 Great Alaska Earthquake contributed to local tsunami generation and vertically uplifted shorelines as much as 11 m on Montague Island in Prince William Sound (PWS). Sudden uplift of 3.7–4.3 m caused coastal lagoons along the island's northwestern coast to gradually drain. The resulting change in depositional environment from marine lagoon to freshwater muskeg created a sharp, laterally continuous stratigraphic contact between silt and overlying peat. Here, we characterize the geomorphology, sedimentology, and diatom ecology across the 1964 earthquake contact and three similar prehistoric contacts within the stratigraphy of the Hidden Lagoons locality. We find that the contacts signal instances of abrupt coastal uplift that, within error, overlap the timing of independently constrained megathrust earthquakes in PWS—1964 Common Era, 760–870 yr BP, 2500–2700 yr BP, and 4120–4500 yr BP. Changes in fossil diatom assemblages across the inferred prehistoric earthquake contacts reflect ecological shifts consistent with repeated draining of a lagoon system caused by >3 m of coseismic uplift. Our observations provide evidence for four instances of combined megathrust‐splay fault ruptures that have occurred in the past ∼4,200 years in PWS. The possibility that 1964‐style combined megathrust‐splay fault ruptures may have repeated in the past warrants their consideration in future seismic and tsunami hazards assessments.

Seismic landslide hazard assessment using improved seismic motion parameters of the 2017 Ms 7.0 Jiuzhaigou earthquake, Tibetan Plateau

Seismic landslide hazard assessment plays a very important guiding role during urgent earthquake relief. In August 2017, an Ms 7.0 earthquake in Jiuzhaigou County, Sichuan Province, China, triggered thousands of landslides. Based on the analysis of geological settings and coseismic landslide characteristics, the Newmark model is used to complete the seismic landslide hazard assessment. Three seismic motion parameters, namely, peak ground acceleration (PGA), traditional Arias intensity (Arias_P), and improved Arias intensity (Arias_C), are adopted. A publicly published coseismic landslide catalog is used as the validation samples. The results show that the coseismic landslides are mainly distributed in the deep gullies and steep mountainous slopes on the north and south sides of the epicenter. The seismic landslide hazard accuracy based on Arias_C is the best, followed by that based on PGA and Arias_P. The spatial distribution of seismic landslide hazards based on Arias_C shows an almost standard elliptical ring and is in good agreement with that of coseismic landslides. These results fully reflect the combined influence of the epicenter and seismogenic fault on landslide development. The middle seismic landslide hazard and over are mainly located at areas with seismic intensity of VII degree and above. The Arias intensity is very suitable for rapid seismic landslide hazard assessment in emergency situations. The study results can provide scientific and technological support for rapid earthquake relief and have reference significance for future seismic landslide hazard assessment.

Stress triggering and future seismic hazards implied by four large earthquakes in the Pamir from 2015 to 2023 revealed by Sentinel-1 radar interferometry

SUMMARY The Mw 6.8 Murghob earthquake is the third earthquake in an Mw 6.4+ sequence occurring in the Pamir initiated by the 2015 Sarez Mw 7.2 earthquake. It is of great significance to investigate their interactions and to assess future seismic hazards in the region. In this paper, we use Sentinel-1 radar interferometric data to retrieve coseismic deformation, invert for the slip distributions of the four events, and then investigate their interactions. The cumulative Coulomb failure stress changes (ΔCFS) suggest that the 2023 Murghob earthquake was promoted by the three prior earthquakes in the sequence. Pre-stress from historical earthquakes is a key factor in explaining the triggering mechanism of the two 2016 Mw 6.4+ earthquakes. Stress loading and unloading effects on major faults in the region indicate that future attention should be paid in (1) the segment of the Sarez-Karakul fault north of the Kokuibel Valley, (2) the segment of the Sarez-Murghab thrust fault west of the Sarez-Karakul fault and (3) the east segments of the Pamir thrust fault system, all with a large positive ΔCFS.

Geodetic Strain Rates for the 2022 Update of the New Zealand National Seismic Hazard Model

ABSTRACT Geodetic data in plate boundary zones reflect the accrual of tectonic strain and stress, which will ultimately be released in earthquakes, and so they can provide valuable insights into future seismic hazards. To incorporate geodetic measurements of contemporary deformation into the 2022 revision of the New Zealand National Seismic Hazard Model 2022 (NZ NSHM 2022), we derive a range of strain-rate models from published interseismic Global Navigation Satellite Systems velocities for New Zealand. We calculate the uncertainty in strain rate excluding strain from the Taupō rift–Havre trough and Hikurangi subduction zone, which are handled separately, and the corresponding moment rates. A high shear strain rate occurs along the Alpine fault and the North Island dextral fault belt, as well as the eastern coast of the North Island. Dilatation rates are primarily contractional in the South Island and less well constrained in the North Island. Total moment accumulation derived using Kostrov-type summation varies from 0.64 to 2.93×1019 N·m/yr depending on method and parameter choices. To account for both aleatory and epistemic uncertainty in the strain-rate results, we use four different methods for estimating strain rate and calculate various average models and uncertainty metrics. The maximum shear strain rate is similar across all methods, whereas the dilatation rate and overall strain rate style differ more significantly. Each method provides an estimate of its own uncertainty propagated from the data uncertainties, and variability between methods provides an additional estimate of epistemic uncertainty. Epistemic uncertainty in New Zealand tends to be higher than the aleatory uncertainty estimates provided by any single method, and epistemic uncertainty on dilatation rate exceeds the aleatory uncertainty nearly everywhere. These strain-rate models were provided to the NZ NSHM 2022 team and used to develop fault-slip deficit rate models and scaled seismicity rate models.

Interseismic Coupling–Based Stochastic Slip Modeling of the 1920 Ms 8.5 Haiyuan Earthquake

Abstract The 1920 Ms 8.5 Haiyuan earthquake was the largest rupture in China in the twentieth century; however, the coseismic slip characteristics that provide insight into fault kinematics and future seismic hazards are unknown. In this study, we employed stochastic slip modeling to explore plausible slip distributions for this earthquake, incorporating different geodetic fault coupling models as prior constraints. Results demonstrate that fault coupling constraints have both positive and negative effects on stochastic models generating slip scenarios to fit the field-measured geomorphic offset observations. Notably, a Gauss coupling model helps to generate surface slip with higher probabilities to fit geomorphic offsets, exhibiting a closer resemblance to the slip distribution of the Haiyuan earthquake. Integrating 41 slip scenarios of 6000 that reasonably fit the geomorphic offsets, we find that the Haiyuan earthquake likely involved multiple asperities and occurred as a cascading rupture event. The western and eastern fault segments may involve shallow slip deficits, implying potential distributed and/or off-fault deformation during the earthquake, with implications for geomorphic offset–based interpretations of long-term fault behavior. The modeling not only provides insight into the kinematics of the Haiyuan earthquake but also offers a plausible scheme for investigating historical earthquakes.

Deterministic full-scenario analysis for maximum credible earthquake hazards

Great earthquakes are one of the major threats to modern society due to their great destructive power and unpredictability. The maximum credible earthquake (MCE) for a specific fault, i.e., the largest magnitude earthquake that may occur there, has numerous potential scenarios with different source processes, making the future seismic hazard highly uncertain. We propose a full-scenario analysis method to evaluate the MCE hazards with deterministic broadband simulations of numerous scenarios. The full-scenario analysis is achieved by considering all uncertainties of potential future earthquakes with sufficient scenarios. Here we show an application of this method in the seismic hazard analysis for the Xiluodu dam in China by simulating 22,000,000 MCE scenarios in 0–10 Hz. The proposed method can provide arbitrary intensity measures, ground-motion time series, and spatial ground-motion fields for all hazard levels, which enables more realistic and accurate MCE hazard evaluations, and thus has great application potential in earthquake engineering.

Enhanced crustal and intermediate seismicity in the Hindu Kush-Pamir region revealed by attentive deep learning model

The Hindu Kush-Pamir region (HKPR) is characterized by complex ongoing deformation, unique slab geometry, and intermediate seismic activity. The availability of extensive seismological data in recent decades has prompted the use of deep learning algorithms to extract valuable insights. In this study, we present a fully automated approach for augmenting earthquake catalogue within the HKPR. Our method leverages an attention mechanism-based deep learning architecture to simultaneously detect events, perform phase picking, and estimate magnitudes. We applied this model to a ten-month dataset (January 2013–October 2013) from 83 stations in the region. Utilizing a robust criterion to evaluate the model's probabilities, we associated phases at different stations and pinpointed earthquake locations in the region. Our results demonstrate a significant enhancement, revealing nearly four and a half times more earthquakes than previously documented in the International Seismological Center (ISC) catalogue. A notable portion of these newly detected events falls within the category of very low-magnitude earthquakes (<3), which were absent in the ISC catalogue. Notably, our spatiotemporal analysis reveals a concentration of crustal seismicity along poorly mapped neotectonic north and northeast-oriented faults in the western Pamir, as well as the Vakhsh Thrust System and the Darvaz Karakul Fault. These findings underscore potential sources of future seismic hazards. Furthermore, our expanded earthquake catalogue facilitates a deeper understanding of the interplay between crustal and intermediate seismic activity in the HKPR, shedding light on the deformation and active faulting resulting from Eurasian-Indian plate interactions.

Paleoseismic Earthquake Recurrence Interval Derivation for the 2022 Revision of the New Zealand National Seismic Hazard Model

Abstract Recurrence intervals of ground-surface rupturing earthquakes are one of numerous datasets used to constrain the rates of fault ruptures in the 2022 revision of the New Zealand National Seismic Hazard Model (NZ NSHM 2022). Paleoearthquake timing and single-event displacement (SED) data in the New Zealand Paleoseismic Site Database version 1.0 alongside geologic and geodetic slip rates from the New Zealand Community Fault Model version 1.0 and NZ NSHM 2022 Geodetic Deformation Model were used to estimate recurrence intervals on faults across New Zealand for inclusion in the NZ NSHM 2022. Past earthquake timings were fit with lognormal, exponential, and Brownian Passage Time recurrence models to derive probability density functions (PDFs) of mean recurrence interval (MRI) in a Bayesian framework. At some sites, SED and slip-rate (SR) data were used to estimate PDFs of MRI; and at sites where timings, slip rate, and displacement data are available, the timings-based and slip-based PDFs were combined to develop tighter constraints on MRI. Using these approaches, we produce a database of maximum-likelihood MRIs and their uncertainties for 80 sites across New Zealand. The resulting recurrence interval dataset is publicly available and is the largest such dataset in New Zealand to date. It provides a valuable resource for future seismic hazard modeling and highlights areas that would benefit from future study.

Fine Seismogenic Fault Structures and Complex Rupture Characteristics of the 2022 M6.8 Luding, Sichuan Earthquake Sequence Revealed by Deep Learning and Waveform Modeling

AbstractAn approximate 236‐year interval in major seismic activity near the southern Xianshuihe fault terminated on 5 September 2022 until a destructive M6.8 Luding earthquake. The strike‐slip mainshock, accompanied by potent normal‐faulting aftershocks, fell short of the previously anticipated M7+ event. Utilizing deep‐learning and source inversion techniques, we analyzed dense near‐field seismograms to examine detailed fault structures and rupture characteristics. Our high‐quality relocated catalog with 7,388 events revealed that the earthquake ruptured an unmapped multiscale fault network. The analysis of the mainshock and 43 ML ≥ 2.8 aftershocks suggests normal‐faulting events relate to the vertical movement of the Gongga Mountain. The sequence length, seismic gaps, and asperities derived from seismicity and waveform modeling imply that the rupture of the M6.8 quake was incomplete, indicating a high risk of a future M6+ event at the northern Moxi segment. These findings hold crucial implications for assessing future seismic hazards in this region.

Aftershock study of the 2019 Ambon earthquake using moment tensor inversion: identification of fault reactivation in northern Banda, Indonesia

On September 26, 2019, an Mw 6.5 earthquake occurred 23 km northeast of Ambon City, Indonesia, followed by numerous aftershock series related to a complex fault network reactivation in the Ambon and Seram region. Using moment tensor inversion, we identify the kinematics of fault reactivation based on the focal mechanism solution of 20 aftershocks with Mw > 3.2 and analyze the earthquake sequence from both focal mechanism solutions and spatiotemporal seismicity. The MTs solution of aftershocks revealed three different characteristics of fault reactivation: (i) a 35 km long N-S oriented main fault characterized by dextral strike-slip (ii) a NE-SW reverse fault segment with a ~ 55° northeastward dip located in southwest Seram, and (iii) two strike-slip segments (NNW-SSE and NNE-SSW trends) and an E-W normal fault in Ambon Island. Analysis of spatiotemporal seismicity with the MTs solution suggests that the Mw 6.5 Ambon aftershock sequences can be described as follows: (i) an Mw 6.5 mainshock rupture that was primarily made up of a major strike-slip component and an insignificant minor normal fault; (ii) first aftershock cluster propagate along the main N-S ruptures, followed by the strike-slip and normal cluster in Ambon Island (iii) The reverse fault events cluster appeared next in Southwest Seram. The presence of complex strike-slip segments in Ambon agrees with the regional structure trends in Halmahera, located in the north of the study area, while the E-W oriented normal fault might be related to the eastward velocity increase in Banda Arc, which causes extensional deformation. Given that the fault reactivation identified in Ambon and Seram is located close to the densely populated urban regions of Ambon City and Kairatu, the analysis of future seismic hazards related to this fault reactivation should consider the risks in a region with complex fault settings.Graphical

Geomorphic mapping and analysis of neotectonic structures in the piedmont alluvial zone of Haryana state, NW-India: a remote-sensing and GPR based approach

The Himalayan Frontal Thrust (HFT) and the surrounding piedmont alluvial region represent a zone of active deformation in the Indo-Gangetic plains. We investigated the Piedmont zone between the Ghaggar and Yamuna River basins in Haryana, India, for geomorphic signatures of active tectonics using remotely sensed data and validated by Geophysical Ground Penetrating Radar (GPR) surveys. The possible locations and the types of active tectonic features such as sub-surface fault, ridges, lineaments and warps were identified based on the presence of geomorphic signatures such as drainage gradient anomalies, abrupt change in flow direction, river offset, compressed meanders, paleochannels and topographic breaks. We used various optical satellite imageries to detect and map the temporal changes in the flow pattern of rivers in the study area. GPR investigations were done at selected test sites to locate and verify the continuity of subsurface fault. The GPR profiles were taken in the North-South direction using the common midpoint technique with 40 and 100 MHz antennae. Low frequency bi-static GPR scanning confirmed a number of dipping reflectors due to fault planes and warp surfaces in the study area. It is concluded that the piedmont zone of Haryana is actively deforming and could become a future seismic hazard zone.

Effect of Style of Faulting on the Orientation of Maximum Horizontal Earthquake Response Spectra

ABSTRACT Horizontal earthquake ground motions have intensities that vary with changes in orientation, that is, they depend on the azimuth. Previous studies have found that the maximum horizontal spectral acceleration at mid-to-long periods is more likely to be closer to the strike-normal orientation than to the strike-parallel orientation for ground motions recorded very close to earthquake ruptures. However, this trend disappears relatively quickly as the distance to the rupture increases and becomes almost nonexistent for rupture distances longer than 5 km. Using a database of ground motions from shallow crustal earthquakes in active tectonic regimes, this work studies the orientation of maximum horizontal spectral acceleration of ground motions from earthquakes with strike slip and reverse faulting. For strike-slip earthquakes, these orientations of maximum intensity are found to be close to the transverse orientation, that is, an orientation that is perpendicular to the line segment between the recording station and the earthquake epicenter. Contrary to what occurs with respect to the previously studied strike-normal orientation, the orientation of maximum spectral response remains close to the transverse orientation regardless of source-to-site distance. Moreover, on average, the orientations of maximum spectral response tend to become closer to the transverse orientation as the period increases. On the other hand, ground motions from reverse earthquakes do not show any trend in the orientation of maximum spectral response relative to the transverse orientation. Probability distributions of the angular difference between the orientation of maximum spectral response and the transverse orientation for strike-slip earthquakes were fitted at several periods between 0.01 and 10 s. These directionality effects from strike-slip earthquakes could be considered in future seismic hazard analyses.

Active seismogenic faulting in the Tehran Region, north of Iran; state-of-the-art and future seismic hazard assessment prospects

This study summarizes the state-of-the-art investigation into active-seismogenic faulting in the Tehran Region, and presents new complementary data to provide an overall view on potential seismic sources to strike the capital of Iran. The study region lies in the central portion of the Arabia-Eurasia collision zone. The Tehran Region is located in a transitional zone between the seismically active regions of Central Iran to the south and Alborz to the north and exhibits a tectonic context characterized by both dip-slip and strike-slip E-striking fault systems such as the Mosha, Parchin, Garmsar and North Tehran faults. Seismic catalogues record numerous strong and moderate earthquakes in the Tehran Region. Although the mapping of active faults and paleoseismological records have defined the seismic sources of several historical and prehistorical earthquakes, still many of them need to be constrained. Based on successive fault displacements and related microseismicity, five previously unknown or poorly understood major active seismogenic fault zones in the Tehran Region were introduced. From the west to the east, and in both near- and far-field contexts, the Qezel Hessar, Mahdasht-South Karaj, Kuhak-Lavizan, Arakuh, and Kajan define the fault zones. Critically, in the last decades, the rapid urban development in Tehran, including the new settlements of Karaj, Hashtguerd, Pardis, and Parand, has covered some of the surface expressions of these fault zones. The Kuhak-Lavizan fault zone, however, is known to cut across inner city parts of Tehran. Within the Tehran Region, seismicity on these faults demonstrates ongoing active structural evolution. The active faults of Tehran City are generally discussed in three northern, central and southern ∼E-striking basement zones. The major zones, which contain deep-seated faults, are capable of producing moderate to strong seismic events near and within the metropolitan areas of Tehran and Karaj and nearby settlements.

Interseismic Coupling, Asperity Distribution, and Earthquake Potential on Major Faults in Southeastern Tibet

AbstractSoutheastern (SE) Tibet is one of the most seismically active regions in mainland China, but the spatial distribution of interseismic coupling that quantifies seismic hazard is unknown along most major faults. In this study, we constructed an elastic block model to invert Global Positioning System data for slip rates and locking coefficients along 20 major faults in SE Tibet. Our results identify 27 strongly coupled fault segments with locking coefficients &gt;0.5, defined as potential seismogenic asperities, extending laterally for 36–330 km. Quantitative calculations of seismic moment budgets on these seismogenic asperities indicate that they are capable of generating Mw 6.4–7.7 earthquakes in the next few decades, of which the Anninghe, Daliangshan and Red River faults have the potential for Mw ≥ 7.5 earthquakes. The interseismic coupling model provides a component for probabilistic analysis of future seismic hazards in densely populated Southwest China.

Rapid Characterization of the February 2023 Kahramanmaraş, Türkiye, Earthquake Sequence

Abstract The 6 February 2023 Mw 7.8 Pazarcık and subsequent Mw 7.5 Elbistan earthquakes generated strong ground shaking that resulted in catastrophic human and economic loss across south-central Türkiye and northwest Syria. The rapid characterization of the earthquakes, including their location, size, fault geometries, and slip kinematics, is critical to estimate the impact of significant seismic events. The U.S. Geological Survey National Earthquake Information Center (NEIC) provides real-time monitoring of earthquakes globally, including rapid source characterization and impact estimates. Here, we describe the seismic characterization products generated and made available by the NEIC over the two weeks following the start of the earthquake sequence in southeast Türkiye, their evolution, and how they inform our understanding of regional seismotectonics and hazards. The kinematics of rupture for the two earthquakes was complex, involving multiple fault segments. Therefore, incorporating observations from rupture mapping was critical for characterizing these events. Dense local datasets facilitated robust source characterization and impact assessment once these observations were obtained and converted to NEIC product input formats. We discuss how we may improve the timeliness of NEIC products for rapid assessment of future seismic hazards, particularly in the case of complex ruptures.

The influence of mantle hydration and flexure on slab seismicity in the southern Central Andes

Knowledge of the causative dynamics of earthquakes along subduction-zone interfaces and within oceanic slabs is relevant for improving future seismic hazard assessments. Here, we combine the analysis of seismic tomography, the 3D structure of the slab and seismicity to investigate the controlling factors driving slab seismic activity beneath the southern Central Andes. We evaluate the ratio distribution between compressional and shear-wave seismic velocities (Vp/Vs) as a proxy for the hydration state of the lithospheric mantle, oceanic slab, and plate interface. Regions of high Vp/Vs, i.e. areas of hydrated mantle, are principally caused by compaction effects and dehydration reactions. In contrast, slab seismicity in areas of low Vp/Vs and inferred lower fluid content in the overriding plate is facilitated by enhanced flexural stresses due to changes in the subduction angle of the oceanic plate. Plate-interface background seismicity correlates with areas of higher Vp/Vs (hydrous interface) at depths <50 km, while areas of most pronounced plate-locking coincide with regions of low Vp/Vs (anhydrous interface). The regions of anhydrous plate interface are likely candidates for future great megathrust events due to their higher potential for elastic energy accumulation compared to more hydrated regions.