Future Price Increases Research Articles

Is there differential responsiveness to a future cigarette price increase depending on adolescents' source of cigarette access?

We examined whether the responsiveness to an increase in cigarettes price differed by adolescents’ cigarette acquisition source. We analyzed data on 6134 youth smokers (grades 7–12) from a cross-sectional survey in Korea with national representativeness. The respondents were classified into one of the following according to their source of cigarette acquisition: commercial-source group, social-source group, and others. Multiple logistic regressions were performed to estimate the effects of an increase in cigarette price on the intention to quit smoking on the basis of the cigarette acquisition source. Of the 6134 youth smokers, 36.0% acquired cigarettes from social sources, compared to the 49.6% who purchased cigarettes directly from commercial sources. In response to a future cigarette price increase, regardless of an individual's smoking level, there was no statistically significant difference in the odds ratio for the intention to stop smoking in association with cigarette acquisition sources. The social-source group had nonsignificant, but consistently positive, odds ratios (1.07–1.30) as compared to that of the commercial-source group. Our findings indicate that the cigarette acquisition source does not affect the responsiveness to an increase in cigarette price. Therefore, a cigarette price policy is a comprehensive strategy to reduce smoking among youth smokers, regardless of their source.

Public Exchange of Information After Container Shipping

In July 2016, the European Commission concluded its investigation in the Container Shipping case by formally accepting a set of commitments proposed by a group of 14 liner shipping companies (Carriers) to change the way in which they announce their prices. The investigation drew much attention from both the industry and antitrust professionals. It involved the major global carriers and targeted a widespread practice of making general rate increase (GRI) announcements, which relay the future price increase intentions of the Carriers, providing only the amount of the intended increase but not the full new price. It was the first case since the Wood Pulp judgement (1993)1 and the publication of the Horizontal Guidelines (2011)2 on the topical and controversial subject of public exchange of information.3 In recent years, several procedures targeting public exchanges of information were conducted: in Spain the competition authority had imposed a fine on a business association and a personal fine on one of its senior officials for making public statements calling for increase of hotel prices only to see the decision quashed in court4; the national authority in the Netherlands investigated mobile network operators for public statements made by senior officials regarding the introduction of connection fees, resolving the case with commitments5; in the United Kingdom a market investigation into the cement industry resulted in measures restricting the circulation of generic price announcements to customers and the publication of data on production and sales6; the media in Ireland reported of an investigation into concerns of price signalling between insurance companies.7 Outside of the EU, in the United States the court allowed a class action against AirTran and Delta alleging the airlines coordinated the imposition of baggage fee through statements made in earning calls and industry conferences.8

House Price Forecasting using Data Mining

People looking to buy a new home tend to be more conservative with their budgets and market strategies. The existing system involves calculation of house prices without the necessary prediction about future market trends and price increase. The goal of the paper is to predict the efficient house pricing for real estate customers with respect to their budgets and priorities. By analyzing previous market trends and price ranges, and also upcoming developments future prices will be predicted. The functioning of this paper involves a website which accepts customer’s specifications and then combines the application of multiple linear regression algorithm of data mining. This application will help customers to invest in an estate without approaching an agent. It also decreases the risk involved in the transaction.

Impact of future price increase on ordering policies for deteriorating items under quadratic demand

Impact of future price increase on ordering policies for deteriorating items under quadratic demand

REGIONAL FOOD MARKET IN CRISIS PERIOD: ANALYSIS OF CONSUMER BEHAVIOUR

The research of regional food market in the light of changing consumer behaviour during the crisis is caused by the importance of food market as the main indicator: of trust to regional authorities and their ability to control and stabilize the main regional markets, perception and results of reforms, food security in the region. The decisions on the need for intervention in market processes, including food market, should be based on the research of consumer behavior: their advantages, preferences, reactions on changing prices, incomes, tastes, political and social factors etc. The aim of the article is to analyze consumer behaviour of population of the region in food market, to determine and systematize factors that affect it in the context of socio-economic specificity of parameters of food market development. The results of the first phase of the project Food basket of the resident of Chernivtsi city” which was initiated by the authors allow to make a conclusion which products Ukrainian people consume during the crisis and which ones don’t. The authors have collected the information about the structure and characteristics of food products consumption by residents of Chernivtsi and identified potential markers of disproportions in the system of food products supply to the markets of the city in order to avoid in future speculative price increase for basic foods and to create the foundations of food safety of Chernivtsi. Additional test investigation of the structure of household food basket of Chernivtsi has allowed the authors to gather and organize the information concerning the list of basic products which form food basket, to clarify the places of purchasing, their frequency in focus groups of consumers of different ages, family status, social status etc. It is established that restructuring of consumer basket of the population of Chernivtsi is affected by: inflation processes, caused in majority by national currency devaluation; panic moods, caused by military and political events at the East of Ukraine and the uncertainty of the residents of Chernivtsi of the presence of mechanisms for realization of food safety system and sometimes even the wish of central and regional authorities to discuss these issues at appropriate level, world prices fluctuation for grain, and, as a result, higher prices for basic groats and other. To prevent further price speculations regional authorities based on a constant monitoring should quickly apply trade interventions, instruments of state regulation and measures to stimulate regional producers and wholesale suppliers.

Diffusion into new markets: evolving customer segments in the solar photovoltaics market

The US residential solar market is growing quickly, and as solar adoption diffuses into new populations, later adopters may differ significantly from earlier ones. Using a unique household-level survey dataset including 1234 adopters and 790 non-adopters from San Diego County, California, we explore differences in attitudinal and socio-economic factors for three groups: (i) adopters and non-adopters; (ii) early and more recent adopters; (iii) consumers adopting via buying or leasing. Our results suggest that adopters overall have higher incomes, are more educated, live in larger homes, and expect to stay in their homes for longer than their non-adopting peers. They also differ in their expectations of electricity retail rate changes and the impact solar could have on their home resale value. When examining differences between early and more recent adopters, we find that recent adopters are more representative of general homeowners and more politically moderate. They are also increasingly installing solar to protect against future electricity price increases and to lower electricity costs as opposed to adopting strictly for environmental reasons. Furthermore, more recent adopters differ significantly from earlier adopters in the situations that prompted them to adopt. The findings demonstrate how solar markets are evolving, reflecting changes in the underlying drivers of consumer adoption as well as innovative solar marketing strategies.

Measuring Criticality of Raw Materials: An Empirical Approach Assessing the Supply Risk Dimension of Commodity Criticality

Providing a sustainable and reliable supply of raw materials at economic prices has become essential to industrialized economies. Therefore, the need for both economical and sustainable methods and strategies for the management of raw materials has been postulated to enable companies and economies to counteract dramatic effects of supply disruptions, or at least to provide early warnings. The relevant studies assign generic weights to different driving factors and therefrom derive criticality indexes. However, it often remains open how to interpret the resulting measures and how to apply them practically. Here we show that based on current commodity key figures, it is possible to empirically determine the risk for future price increases and fluctuations. Thus, we can identify future supply risks and incorporate their patterns into an empirically calibrated criticality measurement. To this end, we apply the well-known compounding framework used by many companies for their financial planning, calculating net present values and volatility from the predicted future price development. To calibrate each resource specific model, we perform extended regression analyses on our compounded criticality index from time series of 42 (out of about 60 industrially relevant) chemical elements. The analysis thereby covers 9 driving factors for criticality and a 40-year time span. Our results suggest a fundamental modification of current practices for criticality assessment, in particular by scaling the criticality measure to correspond with the net present value of future commodity expenses and future volatility.

“Wisdom of the crowds” and online information reliability

Purpose– The purpose of this paper is to determine whether the quality and reliability of websites’ content can be assessed through the lens of “wisdom of the crowds”. In particular as a case study the authors examine the information supplied over time on several prominent Israeli real estate websites.Design/methodology/approach– The Israeli real estate market was selected for the study, since there are many large, popular and dynamic real estate websites that feature hundreds of thousands of ads, representing most of the supply of real estate properties in the country. The authors built an automatic, ontology-based system that downloaded advertisements from three selected websites every two weeks for a number of months and checked for changes in these advertisements over time. The authors conjecture that wisdom of the crowds is mostly reflected by the information changes on the websites, since they indicate the anticipated market trends. Hence the authors developed a number of statistical measures to comparatively analyse trends of information changes on these websites, and assess their reliability compared to the actual market data and tendencies.Findings– The primary results suggest similar information change trends amongst all the websites. Surprisingly, although some properties did not sell over time, sellers generally did not lower their asking price and were willing to wait. Sellers even raised their asking price, apparently in anticipation of future price increases. Comparison of recurring trends among the websites with the trends of the real market during the same time period and a few months after reveals that wisdom of the crowds is only partially effective as an indicator and predictor of website content quality: it correctly reflects the fluctuation in demand, but not in the prices.Research limitations/implications– This study was conducted over a limited time period of five months, and only in several cities in Israel. Additionally, since buyers are not explicitly represented in these sites, their information behaviour was not analysed, although it undoubtedly influences information changes performed by the sellers.Practical implications– The practical contribution of this study is the ontology of the real estate world. Its assimilation by real estate websites would promote the development of their sites and user services. It would also enable ad sharing amongst the various websites and enable efficient searches by search engines. In addition the tools and measures that the authors developed will allow continued monitoring and analysis of user information change patterns.Originality/value– To the best of the knowledge this is the first study to examine and compare real estate websites’ quality and evaluate their information reliability as wisdom of the crowds.

Tendering and value-based pricing: lessons from Italy on human papilloma virus vaccines

Cervical cancer is the second most common female cancer worldwide, mainly affecting women aged between 35 and 55 years. It has important consequences in terms of life-years lost. The high-risk types of human papilloma virus (HPV) are a recognised cause of cervical cancer. HPV vaccine is the first available against a cancer. The European Medicines Agency has approved two HPV vaccines. The quadrivalent vaccine protects against HPV types 6, 11, 16 and 18, and the bivalent vaccine only against types 16 and 18. Types 16 and 18 are responsible for about 73% of all cervical cancer cases in Europe. The low-oncogenic HPV types 6 and 11 mainly cause genital warts (90%), low-grade neoplasia and recurrent respiratory papillomatosis. To our knowledge, HPV vaccines are the most expensive of all available vaccines, their manufacturers claiming the high prices reflect a major research and development investment and relatively complex manufacturing processes. Vaccination advisory bodies have passed a recommendation in favour of HPV vaccination in most EU countries. Both the bivalent and the quadrivalent vaccines are used in Italy for the prevention of cervical cancer. The Italian National Health Service, a public service funded by general taxation, has three institutional tiers: the Department of Health; Regional Health Authorities; and Local Health Authorities. Since 2001, a Constitutional Law has increased regional autonomy (so-called ‘regionalisation’ or ‘devolution’) in healthcare policy, which leads the Regional Health Authorities to develop different economic strategies. Most Regional Health Authorities run tender schemes to exploit potential competition between the two vaccines manufacturers. The regions of Lombardy and Piedmont recently held tenders, both of which were awarded to the bivalent vaccine manufacturer which offered its vaccine for E34.47 per dose while the most recent one (Veneto region) went to the quadrivalent vaccine at E32.75. This price illustrates the steep decline which started in 2007 with the first regional tender for HPV vaccines. The current tender prices indicate substantial savings for the Italian National Health Service, as the ex-factory prices per dose negotiated by AIFA (the Italian agency for drugs) are E95 for bivalent vaccine and E104 for quadrivalent vaccine. The Italian experience demonstrates that tendering may be associated with worthwhile price reductions even where competition is limited, with only two manufacturers offering products for sale. It appears that the same has been achieved with tendering in other EU countries like Sweden and the UK, although tender prices are considered commercial in confidence in these countries. Some indication of prices paid in the UK may be gained from The Department of Health’s Commercial Medicines Unit, which provides mean prices paid for pharmaceutical products. Differences between the two vaccines can be addressed through adding a ‘quality score’ in tender clauses (as in the recent UK tender and in three regional tenders in Italy), in an attempt to maximise cost-effectiveness rather than simply minimise cost. Economic theory suggests that tendering procedures may achieve important savings when purchasing power is high on the demand side, where there are potential suppliers for similar products (shifting the balance of power to the buyer) and where there is perfect information. A further tangible benefit of tendering is when it increases the transparency of prices, at least in the countries where they are publicly available and discounts become directly observable between different contracting authorities. If low prices achieved through tendering are sustained over time, highly centralised and long duration tenders could force some manufacturers out of the market, generating dominant positions. This could erode competition and lead to future price increases. Such a negative scenario depends largely on the size of the tender setting, and in countries like Italy the

Relationship between Crude oil price and Rupee, Dollar Exchange Rate: An Analysis of Preliminary Evidence

The objective of this paper is to examine the effects of oil price on exchange rate of Indian rupee against US dollar using time series data from 1972-73 to 2012-13. Multiple linear regression models are used to analyse the data. The model result suggests that the import of crude oil continues to rise up when the crude oil future price increases. The oil imports thus became a substantial source of demand for dollar in India’s foreign exchange market. This strong demand contributes to strengthen the dollar against Indian rupee, among the other factors. This finding will contribute to Indian government in making policy to control the petrol price to avoid rupee depreciation against US dollar.

FEBS Journal and online‐only publishing

As of January 2013 FEBS Journal moves to online-only Publication. The vast majority of users read the electronic version and we plan to make it ever more attractive, efficient and user-friendly. The move also conforms to our policy of energy conservation and contributing to a sustainable environment. More details can be found in the Editorial. As of January 2013 FEBS Journal is moving to online-only publication. Subscribers will no longer receive printed issues of the journal. The reasons for this are many and disparate but can be summed up as fulfilling two important and prized objectives: efficiency and sustainability. After more than 40 years of publishing, the Journal notes that the vast majority of its papers are now discovered and downloaded from the internet. The online version is available (http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/journal/10.1111/(ISSN)1742-4658/earlyview) Early View before the particular issue in which it appears has been made up, it has unlimited use of colour free of charge, and is instantly accessible worldwide. This has allowed a very efficient work flow, speeding up publication time to the point where accepted papers that require little revision are first published in a matter of 2–3 months. Our readers welcome the simplicity of online searching, database linking, cross-referencing, saving and annotating, and the process and functionality are subject to continuous evolution and improvement. Secondly, FEBS Journal welcomes the opportunity to eliminate the adverse environmental impact of printing and shipping hard copies of the Journal around the world. At a time when sustainability must be a key objective, we believe that the move to online-only will be met with wide approval. Moreover, it will allow us to minimize future price increases and invest in a dynamic online presence that fully meets the evolving needs of the scientific research community. We trust you will recognise the virtue of what we are aiming to achieve and support us in our endeavours. FEBS Journal is a major player in the world of publishing original research and review articles in the molecular life sciences. Make sure you are signed up to receive content alerts from FEBS Journal on the Wiley Online Library and be the first to know when a new issue is published online. More details can be found on the FEBS Journal website (www.febsjournal.org). My colleagues on the Editorial Board and in the Editorial Office join me in wishing you a happy and successful New Year. We hope to have the opportunity to consider some of your best work for publication in the Journal. FEBS Journal is wholly owned by the Federation of European Biochemical Societies (FEBS), a not-for-profit organization, and is published on behalf of FEBS by Wiley-Blackwell. The Federation's income is used to support scientists through fellowships, courses, travel grants, prizes, and other FEBS initiatives.

Retailer’s replenishment policy for deteriorating item in response to future cost increase and incentive-dependent sale

In a competitive business environment, enterprises usually try to maximize their revenues by providing attractive incentives. This paper develops a model to simultaneously determine the inventory and pricing policies of a retailer with contractual agreement. The replenishment plan, pricing policy, and schedule of the special sale plan with future purchasing price increase and incentive demand are considered in a deteriorating item inventory model with a finite planning horizon. We provide a comprehensive analysis to derive the optimal special sale period, the optimal number of deliveries and the optimal retailer’s selling price. A numerical example is presented to demonstrate the theory. The results show that demand rate, price and other incentive policies are critical in managing deteriorating inventories.

Bending the Health Cost Curve: The Promise and Peril of The Independent Payment Advisory Board

Underlying today's and the future's health-care reform debate is a consensus that America's health-care financing system is in a slow-moving but deep crisis: care appears substandard in comparison with other advanced industrial countries, and relative costs are exploding beyond all reasonable measures. The Obama Administration's Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act (ACA) attempts to grapple with both of these problems. One of ACA's key instrumentalities is the Independent Payment Advisory Board-the IPAB, designed to discover and authorize ways to reduce the rate of growth of Medicare and other categories of health spending. The IPAB is a peril. Expert boards to perform regulatory tasks in the interest of efficiency and social goals always run a high risk of being captured by the industry they are supposed to regulate. Even should it succeed at its task of reducing the rate of growth of Medicare spending, who is to say that the reductions will not come at a heavy cost in reduced quantity and effectiveness of medical care? But the IPAB also has promise. The need for a better process than our current specialist-driven one to assign value to the medical services provided by Medicare is great. The bellwether status of Medicare payment systems means that commercial insurance consumers and payors would also benefit mightily from bringing more coherent, technocratic, and cost-effectiveness oriented logic to this process. And the current system of relative Medicare reimbursement rates is, in the judgment of many, currently well out of whack. We quail when we consider the magnitude of the tasks the IPAB faces--even its initial task. Nevertheless, we remain optimistic that this administrative agency will manage to bend the long-run healthcare cost curve and moderate future price increases.

Energy-GDP decoupling in a second best world—a case study on India

Reference emission scenarios in the literature have been the target of criticisms that suggest they convey too optimistic views on spontaneous energy-GDP decoupling of emerging countries economies. This article focuses on the case of India. It explores the role of current suboptimalities of the Indian power sector (structural under-investment in the sector leading to capacity shortage, power cuts and low efficiency) on future energy-GDP decoupling. To do so, it uses a hybrid general equilibrium framework, in which these suboptimalities are explicitly introduced. The results highlight that whether the constraints on investments in the power sector persist or not leads to contrasted trends in energy-GDP decoupling and GHG emissions. Over the short-term, capital scarcity in the power sector constrains the development of energy-intensive activities and therefore leads to higher energy-GDP decoupling. But on the longer-term, constrains on the power sector capacity limits substitution from fossil fuels to electricity, which entails both a low energy-GDP decoupling and a constraint on GDP growth when oil prices are high. The alleviation of suboptimalities appears thus as an insurance policy towards future oil price increase.

Differential Subjective Responsiveness to a Future Cigarette Price Increase Among South Korean Youth Smokers

While higher sensitivity to tobacco price increases among younger smokers as a group has been well recognized, little information is available on heterogeneity among youth smokers. This study examined differential responsiveness to an unspecified future cigarette price increase by smoking rate. This study used a subsample of 6,187 current youth smokers derived from the 2007 Korea Youth Health Survey, an annually repeated cross-sectional survey designed to monitor adolescent health behaviors in a large nationally representative sample of middle-school and high-school students in South Korea (N = 74,698). A generalized ordered logit model was estimated to examine independent associations of self-reported responses to an unspecified future cigarette price increase with smoking rate and time since smoking initiation, after controlling for other individual and family characteristics. Higher smoking rates and longer time since smoking initiation were associated with a greater likelihood to continue smoking despite a future cigarette price increase. When these two factors were accounted for in the model, other individual characteristics were not statistically significant. Among youth smokers in South Korea, higher smoking rates were associated with lower self-reported responsiveness to a future cigarette price increase. Tobacco tax increases help prevent youth smokers from progressing to advanced stages of smoking, while certain subgroups of youth smokers, especially with nicotine dependence, may still need other effective cessation interventions.

Optimisation of rainwater tank design from large roofs: A case study in Melbourne, Australia

Rainwater tanks for larger roof areas need optimisation of tank size, which is often not carried out before installation of these tanks. This paper presents a case study of rainwater tank evaluation and design for large roof areas, located in Melbourne, Australia, based on observed daily rainfall data representing three different climatic regimes (i.e. dry average, and wet years). With the aim of developing a comprehensive Decision Support Tool for the performance analysis and design of rainwater tanks, a simple spreadsheet based daily water balance model is developed using daily rainfall data, contributing roof area, rainfall loss factor, available storage volume, tank overflow and irrigation water demand. In this case study, two (185 m 3 and 110 m 3) underground rainwater tanks are considered. Using the developed model, effectiveness of each tank under different climatic scenarios are assessed. The analysis shows that both the tanks are quite effective in wet and average years, however less effective in dry years. A payback period analysis of the tanks is preformed which reveals that the total construction cost of the tanks can be recovered within 15–21 years time depending on tank size, climatic conditions and future water price increase rates. For the tanks, a relationship between water price increase rates and payback periods is developed. The study highlights the need for detailed optimisation and financial analysis for large rainwater tanks to maximise the benefits.

Predictors of What Smokers Say They Will Do in Response to Future Price Increases. Findings From the International Tobacco Control (ITC) Four Country Survey

Given the impact of higher tobacco prices on smoking cessation, we studied the role of future cigarette prices on forming expectation about smoking behavior. Using a random sample of 9,058 adult cigarette smokers from the United States, Canada, Australia, and the United Kingdom collected in 2002, we examined predictors of what smokers say they will do in response to a hypothetical 50% increase in the price they paid for their last cigarette purchase. A series of regression analyses examined factors associated with intentions that have a positive impact on health, that is, intentions to quit and/or to consume fewer cigarettes. The quit and/or smoke less intentions were more pronounced among those who lived in areas with higher average cigarette prices and who paid higher prices for their brand of choice during the last purchase. The magnitude of the price increase is a more important predictor of an intention to quit/smoke less compared with the average cigarette price. The availability of alternative (cheaper) cigarette sources may reduce but would not eliminate the impact of higher prices/taxes on smokers' expected behavior that has been linked to actual quit intentions and quitting in follow-up surveys.

Bending the Health Cost Curve: The Promise and Peril of the Independent Payment Advisory Board

Underlying today's and the future's health-care reform debate is a consensus that America's health-care financing system is in a slow-moving but deep crisis: care appears substandard in comparison with other advanced industrial countries, and relative costs are exploding beyond all reasonable measures. The Obama Administration's Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act (ACA) attempts to grapple with both of these problems. One of ACA's key instrumentalities is the Independent Payment Advisory Board-the IPAB, designed to discover and authorize ways to reduce the rate of growth of Medicare and other categories of health spending. The IPAB is a peril. Expert boards to perform regulatory tasks in the interest of efficiency and social goals always run a high risk of being captured by the industry they are supposed to regulate. Even should it succeed at its task of reducing the rate of growth of Medicare spending, who is to say that the reductions will not come at a heavy cost in reduced quantity and effectiveness of medical care? But the IPAB also has promise. The need for a better process than our current specialist-driven one to assign value to the medical services provided by Medicare is great. The bellwether status of Medicare payment systems means that commercial insurance consumers and payors would also benefit mightily from bringing more coherent, technocratic, and cost-effectiveness oriented logic to this process. And the current system of relative Medicare reimbursement rates is, in the judgment of many, currently well out of whack. We quail when we consider the magnitude of the tasks the IPAB faces--even its initial task. Nevertheless, we remain optimistic that this administrative agency will manage to bend the long-run healthcare cost curve and moderate future price increases.

The Accuracy of Consumers’ Perception of Future Inflationary Price Changes

Four laboratory experiments were conducted to investigate the extent to which and how consumers encountering inflationary increases in product prices are able to accurately extrapolate future price increases. Between 32 and 48 undergraduates participated in the different experiments. In Experiment 1 it was found that participants were more able to extrapolate a proportional increase when presented with two consecutive proportional price increases compared to one price increase. This finding was not replicated for decreasing prices in Experiment 2. Experiment 3 showed that varying the time interval between prices counteracted an accurate extrapolation of proportional price increases despite that two price increases were presented. In Experiment 4 it was found that presenting the same (vs. different) proportional price increases for two products made participants able to extrapolate the common proportional price increase.

Price perception and confirmation bias in the context of a VAT increase

This paper examines a potential confirmation bias in price perception in consequence to a real-world event and different explanations for such a confirmation bias. In a panel design conducted 2 months before and after a raise in value-added tax (VAT), 303 participants had to estimate the current prices for four products affected and four products not affected by this raise in VAT and the anticipated or recalled prices of these products. Before the VAT increase, an undifferentiated belief in strong future price increases was prevalent. After the VAT increase, a confirmation bias was found: in retrospect, participants reported price increases that were significantly higher than the official price development and in line with an undifferentiated belief in marked price increases. Two theoretical explanations for confirmation bias, i.e., the biased use of price information and the selective distortion of memory, fit the data.