Future Potential Distribution Research Articles

Ecological niche modeling based on ensemble algorithms to predicting current and future potential distribution of African swine fever virus in China

African swine fever (ASF) is a tick-borne infectious disease initially described in Shenyang province China in 2018 but is now currently present nationwide. ASF has high infectivity and mortality rates, which often results in transportation and trade bans, and high expenses to prevent and control the, hence causing huge economic losses and a huge negative impact on the Chinese pig farming industry. Ecological niche modeling has long been adopted in the epidemiology of infectious diseases, in particular vector-borne diseases. This study aimed to establish an ecological niche model combined with data from ASF incidence rates in China from August 2018 to December 2021 in order to predict areas for African swine fever virus (ASFV) distribution in China. The model was developed in R software using the biomod2 package and ensemble modeling techniques. Environmental and topographic variables included were mean diurnal range (°C), isothermality, mean temperature of wettest quarter (°C), precipitation seasonality (cv), mean precipitation of warmest quarter(mm), mean precipitation of coldest quarter (mm), normalized difference vegetation index, wind speed (m/s), solar radiation (kJ /day), and elevation/altitude (m). Contribution rates of the variables normalized difference vegetation index, mean temperature of wettest quarter, mean precipitation of coldest quarter, and mean precipitation of warmest quarter were, respectively, 47.61%, 28.85%, 10.85%, and 7.27% (according to CA), which accounted for over 80% of contribution rates related to variables. According to model prediction, most of areas revealed as suitable for ASF distribution are located in the southeast coast or central region of China, wherein environmental conditions are suitable for soft ticks’ survival. In contrast, areas unsuitable for ASFV distribution in China are associated with arid climate and poor vegetation, which are less conducive to soft ticks’ survival, hence to ASFV transmission. In addition, prediction spatial suitability for future ASFV distribution suggests narrower areas for ASFV spread. Thus, the ensemble model designed herein could be used to conceive more efficient prevention and control measure against ASF according to different geographical locations in China.

Optimization of a Calcium-Based Treatment Method for Jellyfish to Design Food for the Future.

Edible jellyfish are a traditional Southeast Asian food, usually prepared as a rehydrated product using a salt and alum mixture, whereas they are uncommon in Western Countries and considered as a novel food in Europe. Here, a recently developed, new approach for jellyfish processing and stabilization with calcium salt brining was upgraded by modifying the pre-treatment step of freshly caught jellyfish and successfully applied to several edible species. Treated jellyfish obtained by the application of the optimized version of this method respected both quality and safety parameters set by EU law, including no pathogenic microorganisms, absence or negligible levels of histamine and of total volatile basic nitrogen, no heavy metals; and the total bacterial, yeast, and mold counts were either negligible or undetectable. Jellyfish treated by the presented method exhibited unique protein content, amino acid and fatty acid profiles, antioxidant activity, and texture. The optimized method, initially set up on Rhiszostoma pulmo, was also successfully applied to other edible jellyfish species (such as Cotylorhiza tuberculata, Phyllorhiza punctata, and Rhopilema nomadica) present in the Mediterranean Sea. This study discloses an innovative process for the preparation of jellyfish-based food products for potential future distribution in Europe.

Current and future predicted distributions of invasive toads (Anura: Bufonidae) and bullfrogs (Anura: Ranidae) on Sado Island

Island ecosystems are thought to be hotspots of biodiversity but are also susceptible to invasion by alien species. Sado Island in Japan is a habitat for endemic and rare species, such as the endemic Sado wrinkled frog. However, two alien frog species, Bufo japonicus formosus and Lithobates catesbeianus , which have been introduced to the island are threatening the biodiversity of the island and their distribution information is lacking. In this study, we conducted a distribution survey of B. japonicus and L. catesbeianus over Sado Island and predicted their current and future potential distributions using a species distribution model. We found that B. japonicus currently inhabits the southwestern part of the island near its introduction point and is in the process of expansion. Meanwhile, L. catesbeianus has a wider distribution range than B. japonicus and is almost expanding throughout most of its potential suitable habitat. We predict that, in the future, B. japonicus will expand their distribution to the southeastern part of the island. These findings show that it is necessary for B. japonicus to prevent their expansion into further area and L. catesbeianus to reduce the population, considering their distribution status.

Hindcast-validated species distribution models reveal future vulnerabilities of mangroves and salt marsh species.

Rapid climate change is threatening biodiversity via habitat loss, range shifts, increases in invasive species, novel species interactions, and other unforeseen changes. Coastal and estuarine species are especially vulnerable to the impacts of climate change due to sea level rise and may be severely impacted in the next several decades. Species distribution modeling can project the potential future distributions of species under scenarios of climate change using bioclimatic data and georeferenced occurrence data. However, models projecting suitable habitat into the future are impossible to ground truth. One solution is to develop species distribution models for the present and project them to periods in the recent past where distributions are known to test model performance before making projections into the future. Here, we develop models using abiotic environmental variables to quantify the current suitable habitat available to eight Neotropical coastal species: four mangrove species and four salt marsh species. Using a novel model validation approach that leverages newly available monthly climatic data from 1960 to 2018, we project these niche models into two time periods in the recent past (i.e., within the past half century) when either mangrove or salt marsh dominance was documented via other data sources. Models were hindcast‐validated and then used to project the suitable habitat of all species at four time periods in the future under a model of climate change. For all future time periods, the projected suitable habitat of mangrove species decreased, and suitable habitat declined more severely in salt marsh species.

Global potential distribution of Oryctes rhinoceros, as predicted by Boosted Regression Tree model

Climate change is expected to have a significant influence on species range expansion, habitat shifts, and risk of biological invasion due to changes in survival rates, and rapid reproduction. This will tend to affect their geographical distribution and dispersal patterns, thereby threatening agriculture production and food security. Therefore, it is essential to understand the impact of climate change on the range shifts of an invasive species like the Asiatic rhinoceros beetle, Oryctes rhinoceros Linnaeus (Coleoptera: Dynastinae: Scarabaeidae), to inform policy formulation and preventive measures. To achieve this, we used environmental variables and occurrence records of O. rhinoceros to predict the current and future potential distribution of the pest under two representative concentration pathways (RCPs 4.5 and 8.5) for three time periods (2030, 2050, and 2080). We employed Boosted Regression Tree (BRT) and ArcGIS to create risk maps for the pest. The BRT model predicts an expansion of O. rhinoceros outside the current known distribution. The environmental variables which contributed the most to the geographical distribution of the pest were minimum temperature of coldest month (26.81 %), followed by precipitation of wettest month (20.61 %), temperature annual range (11.34 %), mean diurnal range (11.33 %), and elevation (4.49 %). Under the different climate change scenarios, O. rhinoceros will continue to threaten the economically important host plants until 2080. As a result, there will be a need for effective strategies to prevent its spread. Our predictions are reliable and have the potential to estimate the global distribution of the pest, as well as provide suggestions for prompt of O. rhinoceros prevention and management.

Potential spatiotemporal distribution changes and conservation recommendations of two connected endangered tree peony species (Paeonia decomposita & P. rotundiloba)

• Temperature seasonality and UVB seasonality were the most critical factors shaping the distribution of Paeonia decomposita and P. rotundiloba . • The historical period distributions of the two speices were in the southwest of the current distribution. • The potential distribution of the two tree peonies continued to expand and migrated to high-altitude areas in the north in future. • Establishing priority reserves in advance according to the model prediction is an effective protective measure. Genus Paeonia L. has important economic values in ornamental, medicine and food. China is one of the distribution centers of Paeonia and the origin to all wild species of section Moutan . Nowadays, most tree peonies species are in danger of extinction, but their geographical distribution is still unclear, hindering further resource protection. In this work, based on comprehensive environmental data and long-term presence records, the maximum entropy (MaxEnt) model was used to predict the past, current and future potential distribution of two Chinese endemic and endangered species, Paeonia decomposita and Paeonia rotundiloba. The results showed that the two species were narrowly distributed in Western Sichuan (Aba and Ganzi), China, with the temperature seasonality and UV-B seasonality being the most important environmental variables to determine the habitat suitability of the both tree peonies. In addition, growing degree days and precipitation seasonality also had an important impact on P. decomposita and P. rotundiloba, respectively. The reconstitution for the past distribution showed that they were mainly distributed in the south foot of Hengduan Mountains in the last interglacial (LIG) period. The reconstitution for historical suitable distribution indicated that the two tree peonies would migrated along Hengduan Mountains and Yarlung Zangbo River into the southeast of Qinghai Tibet Plateau, northeast from the current distribution. The areas of current potential distribution of the two tree peonies, which were partially crossed, were 14050 km 2 and 45299 km 2 respectively. Under different future climate scenarios, the potential distribution of the two peonies continued to expand and migrated to high-altitude areas in the north if the greenhouse gas concentration will continue to increase. This study will not only provide theoretical guidance for the conservation of P. decomposita and P. rotundiloba , but also help to understand the evolution and migration process of section Moutan.

Implications of climate change for environmental niche overlap between fiveCuscutapest species and their two main Leguminosae host crop species

AbstractSome parasitic plants are major pests in agriculture, but how this might be affected by climate change remains largely unknown. In this study, we assessed this question for five generalist holoparasiticCuscutaspecies (smoothseed alfalfa dodder [Cuscuta approximataBab.], alfalfa dodder [Cuscuta europaeaL.], soybean dodder [Cuscuta chinensisC. Wright], Peruvian dodder [Cuscuta australisR. Br.], and Japanese dodder [Cuscuta japonicaChoisy]) and two of their main Leguminosae host crop species (soybean [Glycine max(L.) Merr.] and alfalfa [Medicago sativaL.]. For each of the fiveCuscutaspecies and the two crop species, we ran MaxEnt models, using climatic and soil variables to predict their potential current distributions and potential future distributions for 2070. We ran species distribution models for all seven species for multiple climate change scenarios, and tested for changes in the overlap of suitable ranges of each crop with the five parasites. We found that annual mean temperature and isothermality are the main bioclimatic factors determining the suitable habitats of theCuscutaspecies and their hosts. For both host species, the marginally to optimally suitable area will increase by 2070 for all four representative concentration pathway scenarios. For most of theCuscutaspecies, the marginally to optimally suitable area will also increase. While the suitable areas for both the hosts and the parasites will increase overall, Schoener’sD, indicating the relative overlap in suitable area, will change only marginally. However, the absolute area of potential niche overlap may increase up to 6-fold by 2070. Overall, our results indicate that larger parts of the globe will become suitable for both host species, but that they could also suffer fromCuscutaparasitism in larger parts of their suitable ranges.

Predicting Present and Future Distribution Ranges of an Endemic Flea Beetle, Psylliodes anatolicus Gök and Çilbiroğlu 2004 (Coleoptera: Chrysomelidae) in Türkiye

This study aimed to construct species distribution models (SDMs) to predict present and future (2050 and 2070) potential distribution ranges of the endemic leaf beetle Psylliodes anatolicus Gök and Çilbiroğlu, 2004 under different climate change scenarios (Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5). The distribution records were gathered from the related literature and unpublished data of the authors. SDMs were constructed by the maximum entropy (MaxEnt) method using the bioclimatic variables of Community Climate System Model 4 (CCSM4). As a result of this study, the most effective bioclimatic factors determining the distribution of species were isothermality, temperature seasonality, and mean temperature of the wettest quarter. The SDM conducted for the present distribution showed that the species may occur in large parts of the Aegean and Mediterranean Regions of Türkiye, beyond the known records. The SDMs for 2050 and 2070 suggest that the range of the species will shrink considerably or go extinct totally in the next 50 years, probably due to the changing climate. In conclusion, this study revealed that changing climate threatens the endemic members of Anatolian biodiversity, especially the endemic species living in mountain ecosystems.

Contradictory effect of climate change on American and European populations of Impatiens capensis Meerb. - is this herb a global threat?

AimsThe present study is the first-ever attempt to generate information on the potential present and future distribution of Impatiens capensis (orange balsam) under various climate change scenarios. Moreover, the differences in bioclimatic preferences of native and non-native populations were evaluated. LocationGlobal. TaxonAngiosperms. MethodsA database of I. capensis localities was compiled based on the public database – the Global Biodiversity Information Facility (GBIF), herbarium specimens, and a field survey in Poland. The initial dataset was verified, and each record was assigned to one of two groups – native (3664 records from North America) or non-native (750 records from Europe and the western part of North America). The analyses involved bioclimatic variables in 2.5 arc-minutes of interpolated climate surface downloaded from WorldClim v. 2.1. MaxEnt version 3.3.2 was used to conduct the ecological niche modeling based on presence-only observations of I. capensis. Forecasts of the future distribution of the climatic niches of the studied species in 2080–2100 were made based on climate projections developed by the CNRM/CERFACS modeling and Model for Interdisciplinary Research on Climate (MIROC-6). Main conclusionsDistribution models created for “present time” showed slightly broader potential geographical ranges of both native and invasive populations of orange balsam. On the other hand, some areas (e.g. NW Poland, SW Finland), settled by the species, are far outside the modeled climate niche, which indicates a much greater adaptation potential of I. capensis. In addition, the models have shown that climate change will shift the native range of orange balsam to the north and the range of its European populations to the northwest. Moreover, while the coverage of niches suitable for I. capensis in America will extend due to climate change, the European populations will face 31–95 % habitat loss.

The Potential Effect of Climate Change on the Distribution of Endemic Anurans from Mexico’s Tropical Dry Forest

Mexico is one of the richest countries in amphibian species (420 spp.), with a high level of endemism (69%). The order Anura represents the most diverse and widespread of the three extant amphibian orders (257 spp.). The anurofauna of Mexico’s tropical dry forest ecosystem host a high proportion of the species and endemism registered in the country. In terms of conservation, both dry forests and amphibians are at risk due to climate change because it is expected that as the temperature becomes higher and precipitation decreases, this vegetation type may experience water stress. We applied the MaxEnt algorithm to estimate the potential current and future (year 2070) geographic distribution patterns of 95 endemic Mexican anuran species inhabiting the country’s tropical dry forests by considering two representative concentration pathway scenarios (RCP4.5/RCP8.5) and analyzed the potential distributional pattern changes. The results indicated that overall, species would experience enough of a significant warming effect to cause a reduction in the original distribution area, with 44% of species losing an average of 50% of their original range (9 spp. in threatened category); additionally, 22% of the species in the dry forest ecosystem will experience an average increase of almost 50% in their original area, two species will lose more than 80% of their range, and one will disappear.

Modeling the potential distribution of different types of Dendrocalamus sinicus, the strongest woody bamboo in the world, with MaxEnt model.

Climate change will significantly affect the distribution area of species. Through establishing distribution model, we can simulate the current and future potential distribution range and provide reference for the introduction and cultivation planning of rare or economic plants. Dendrocalamus sinicus, endemic to Yunnan Province of China, is the strongest woody bamboo in the world. In the present study, the MaxEnt model was performed to simulate the distribution of different types of D. sinicus in China and neighboring countries or regions. The results suggested that the suitable distribution range of “straight type”, the main type for cultivation and utilization, was 8°–30°N and 73°–122°E under the current climate conditions, while the potential distribution range of “bending type” was 6°–31°N and 79°–109°E. The two most key climate variables associated with distribution of “straight type” were “Temperature Annual Range” with 36.6% contribution rate and “Temperature Seasonality” (32.4%), while “Isothermality” (47.8%) and “Precipitation of Driest Month” (24.8%) for “bending type”. Under different climate change scenarios (SSP1-2.6, SSP5-8.5) and periods (2050, 2090), the potential distribution area of the “straight type” were apparently different, indicating that the distribution area of D. sinicus will be affected significantly by climate changes in the future. Our findings would be not only beneficial to understanding limiting factors for natural distribution of D. sinicus, but also helpful for further germplasm conservation, introduction and cultivation planning of this rare woody bamboo.

Predicting habitat suitability and niche dynamics of Dactylorhiza hatagirea and Rheum webbianum in the Himalaya under projected climate change

In the era of anthropocene, global warming tends to alter the distribution range of the plant species. Highly fragile to such changes are the species that are endemic, inhabit higher elevations and show narrow distribution ranges. Predicting and plotting the appropriate suitable habitats and keeping knowledge of how climate change will affect future distribution become imperative for designing effective conservation strategies. In the current study we have used BIOMOD ensemble forecasting to study the current and predict the future potential distribution of Dactylorhiza hatagirea and Rheum webbianum and describe their niche dynamics in Himalayan biodiversity hotspots under climate change scenarios using ecospat R package. Results reveal sufficient internal evaluation metrics with area under curve (AUC) and true skill statistic (TSS) values greater than 0.8 i.e. 0.93 and 0.98 and 0.82 and 0.90 for D. hatageria and R. webbianum respectively, which signifies robustness of the model. Among different bioclimatic variables, bio_1, bio_3, bio_8, bio_14 and bio_15 were the most influential, showing greater impact on the potential distribution of these plant species. Range change analysis showed that both the studied species will show significant contraction of their suitable habitats under future climatic scenarios. Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5 for the year 2070, indicate that the suitable habitats could be reduced by about 51.41% and 70.57% for D. hatagirea and R. webbianum respectively. The results of the niche comparisons between the current and future climatic scenarios showed moderate level of niche overlap for all the pairs with D. hatageria showing 61% overlap for current vs. RCP4.5 2050 and R. webbianum reflects 68% overlap for current vs. RCP4.5 2050. Furthermore, the PCA analysis revealed that climatic conditions for both the species vary significantly between current and future scenarios. The similarity and equivalence test showed that the niche between present and future climate change scenarios is comparable but not identical. From the current study we concluded that the influence of climate change on the habitat distribution of these plant species in the Himalayan biodiversity hotspots can be considered very severe. Drastic reduction in overall habitat suitability poses a high risk of species extinction and thereby threatens to alter the functions and services of these fragile ecosystems. Present results can be used by conservationists for mitigating the biodiversity decline and exploring undocumented populations on one hand and by policymakers in implementing the policy of conservation of species by launching species recovery programmes in future on the other. The outcomes of this study can contribute substantially to understand the consequences of climate change in the Himalayan biodiversity hotspots.

Decline in the suitable habitat of dominant Abies species in response to climate change in the Hindu Kush Himalayan region: insights from species distribution modelling.

Reliable predictions of future distribution ranges of ecologically important species in response to climate change are required for developing effective management strategies. Here we used an ensemble modelling approach to predict the distribution of three important species of Abies namely, Abies pindrow, Abies spectabilis and Abies densa in the Hindu Kush Himalayan region under the current and two shared socioeconomic pathways (SSP245 and SSP585) and time periods of 2050 and 2090s. A correlative ensemble model using presence/absence data of the three Abies species and 22 environmental variables, including 19 bioclimatic variables and 3 topographic variables, from known distributions was built to predict the potential current and future distribution of these species. The individual models used to build the final ensemble performed well and provided reliable results for both the current and future distribution of all three species. For A. pindrow, precipitation of the driest month (Bio14) was the most important environmental variable with 83.3% contribution to model output while temperature seasonality (Bio4) and annual mean diurnal range (Bio2) were the most important variables for A. spectabilis and A. densa with 48.4% and 46.1% contribution to final model output, respectively. Under current climatic conditions, the ensemble models projected a total suitable habitat of about 433,003 km2, 790,837 km2 and 676,918 km2 for A. pindrow, A. spectabilis and A. densa, respectively, which is approximately 10.36%, 18.91% and 16.91% of the total area of Hindu Kush Himalayan region. Projections of habitat suitability under future climate scenarios for all the shared socioeconomic pathways showed a reduction in potentially suitable habitats with a maximum overall loss of approximately 14% of the total suitable area of A. pindrow under SSP 8.5 by 2090. A decline in total suitable habitat is predicted to be 9.6% in A. spectabilis by 2090 under the SSP585 scenario while in A. densa 6.67% loss in the suitable area is expected by 2050 under the SSP585 scenario. Furthermore, there is no elevational change predicted in the case of A. pindrow while A. spectabilis is expected to show an upward shift by about 29m per decade and A. densa is showing a downward shift at a rate of 11m per decade. The results are interesting, and intriguing given the occurrence of these species across the Hindu Kush Himalayan region. Thus, our study underscores the need for consideration of unexpected responses of species to climate change and formulation of strategies for better forest management and conservation of important conifer species, such as A. pindrow, A. spectabilis and A. densa.

Evaluation of Climate Change Impacts on the Global Distribution of the Calliphorid Fly Chrysomya albiceps Using GIS

Climate change is expected to influence the geographic distribution of many taxa, including insects. Chrysomya albiceps is one of the most pervasive calliphorid fly with apparent ecological, forensic, and medical importance. However, the global habitat suitability is varied due to climate change. Models that forecast species spatial distribution are increasingly being used in wildlife management, highlighting the need for trustworthy techniques to assess their accuracy. So, we used the maximum entropy implemented in Maxent to predict the current and future potential global geographic distribution of C. albiceps and algorithms of DIVA-GIS to confirm the predicted current model. The Maxent model was calibrated using 2177 occurrence records. Based on the Jackknife test, four bioclimatic variables along with altitude were used to develop the final models. For future models, two representative concentration pathways (RCPs), 2.6 and 8.5, for 2050 and 2070 were used. The area under curve (AUC) and true skill statistics (TSS) were used to evaluate the resulted models with values equal to 0.92 (±0.001) and 0.7, respectively. Two-dimensional niche analysis illustrated that the insect can adapt to low and high temperatures (9 °C to 27 °C), and the precipitation range was 0 mm to 2500 mm. The resulted models illustrated the global distribution of C. albiceps with alteration to its distribution in the future, especially on the Mediterranean coasts of Europe and Africa, Florida in the USA, and the coasts of Australia. Such predicted shifts put decision makers against their responsibilities to prevent destruction in economic, medical, and ecological sectors.

Random Forest Classification Method for Predicting Intertidal Wetland Migration Under Sea Level Rise

Intertidal wetlands such as mangrove and saltmarsh are increasingly susceptible to areal losses related to sea level rise. This exposure is potentially offset by processes that might enable wetlands to accrete in situ or migrate landward under sea level rise, and planning policies that might open new opportunities for migration. We present and demonstrate a method to predict intertidal wetland distribution in the present-day landscape using random forest classification models, and use these models to predict the intertidal wetland distribution in future landscapes under specified sea level scenarios. The method is demonstrably robust in predicting present-day intertidal wetland distribution, with moderate correlation or better between predicted and mapped wetland distributions occurring in nearly all estuaries and strong correlation or better occurring in more than half of the estuaries. Given the accuracy in predicting present-day wetland distribution the method is assumed to be informative in predicting potential future wetland distribution when combined with best available models of future sea level. The classification method uses a variety of hydro-geomorphological surrogates that are derived from digital elevation models, Quaternary geology or soils mapping and land use mapping, which is then constrained by a representation of the future sea level inside estuaries. It is anticipated that the outputs from applying the method would inform assessments of intertidal wetland vulnerability to sea level rise and guide planning for potential wetland migration pathways.

Potential Current and Future Distribution of the Long-Whiskered Owlet (Xenoglaux loweryi) in Amazonas and San Martin, NW Peru.

Simple SummaryThe long-whiskered owlet (Xenoglaux loweryi) is threatened by human activities and is currently listed as vulnerable by the IUCN. Here, we geo-referenced long-whiskered owlet records, identified key environmental variables affecting their distribution, and predicted their current and future distribution (2050 and 2070) in the Amazonas and San Martin areas of northwestern Peru. Under current conditions, areas with “high”, “moderate”, and “low” probability for the distribution of X. loweryi cover about 0.16% (140.85 km2), 0.46% (416.88 km2), and 1.16% (1048.79 km2) of the study area, respectively. Moreover, under future conditions, the “high”, “moderate”, and “low” probability areas showed profits and losses in terms of habitat suitability. Importantly, the natural protected areas in Amazonas and San Martin, both in current and in the future conditions, do not cover most of the pivotal habitats for X. loweryi. Furthermore, it was evident that the combination of climate change and anthropogenic activities will lead to further habitat loss for this species. Therefore, to effectively conserve this species over time, it is strongly recommended that areas with “high” (and even “moderate”) probability and the main ecosystems that this species inhabits be designated as priority areas for research and conservation (including in natural protected areas).The IUCN has listed the long-whiskered owlet (Xenoglaux loweryi) as vulnerable due to the presence of few geographic records, its restricted range, and anthropogenic threats. Its natural history and ecology are largely unknown, and its distribution is widely debated; therefore, there is an urgent need for the real-time conservation of X. loweryi. In this study, 66 geo-referenced records of X. loweryi, 18 environmental variables, and the maximum entropy model (MaxEnt) have been used to predict the current and future (2050 and 2070) potential distribution of X. loweryi in the Amazonas and San Martin regions of northwestern Peru. In fact, under current conditions, areas of “high”, “moderate”, and “low” potential habitat suitability cover 0.16% (140.85 km2), 0.46% (416.88 km2), and 1.16% (1048.79 km2) of the study area, respectively. Moreover, under future conditions, the “high”, “moderate”, and “low” probability areas present profits and losses in terms of habitat suitability. Based on the environmental variables, this species mostly inhabits areas with a forest fraction with presence of trees with an emergent tree canopy of ~10–30 metres and depends on Yunga montane forest habitats with high humidity but it is not dependent on bare cover area, crops, or grasslands. Nevertheless, most of the current and future distribution areas are not part of the protected natural areas of Amazonas and San Martin. Additionally, the combination of climate change and anthropogenic activities contribute to further losses of this species habitat. Therefore, from the management point of view, corrective and preventive actions will help to preserve this species over time.

Modelling the current and future potential distribution of the bean bug Riptortus pedestris with increasingly serious damage to soybean.

The bean bug, Riptortus pedestris, has received intense attention in recent years because of its involvement in increasing outbreaks of staygreen syndrome in soybean (Glycine max (L.)), often causing almost 100% loss of soybean yield in China. However, for this pest of great economic importance, potential current and future distribution patterns and their underlying driving factors remain unclear. Maxent modelling under climate, elevation and land-use (including the distribution information of G. max) variables showed that the current potential distribution covered a vast geographic range, primarily including most parts of south, South East and east Asia. Under future environmental scenarios, suitable habitat expanded markedly. Areas that would become highly suitable for R. pedestris were primarily located in north-east China and west India. Five bioclimatic (BIO13, BIO08, BIO18, BIO02 and BIO07) and one land-use (C3 annual crops) predictors contributed approximately 95% to the modelling, and analyses of curve responses showed that to a certain extent, R. pedestris preferred relatively high temperature and precipitation. Our results indicate that a high risk of R. pedestris outbreaks is present in parts of Asia, especially in the soybean-growing regions of China, and this risk will continue in the future. The predicted distribution pattern and key regulating factors identified herein could provide a vital reference for developing pest management policies and further alleviate the incidence of staygreen syndrome in soybean. © 2022 Society of Chemical Industry.

Range-wide and regional distribution of the Western Tragopan Tragopan melanocephalus and effects of disturbance on local abundances

Summary The Western Tragopan Tragopan melanocephalus is endemic to the Western Himalayas and currently listed as ‘Vulnerable’ on the IUCN Red List which also emphasizes a data deficiency regarding its distribution and population size. With this study we provide new data from the Palas Valley, northern Pakistan and deliver a range wide estimate of the species current, past, and future potential distribution as derived from environmental niche models. In the Palas Valley, Western Tragopans occupied different summer habitats on north-facing slopes and winter habitats on south-facing slopes. A quantitative estimate of local populations in six side valleys was inferred from individual call-count surveys during two breeding seasons (April and May 2017, 2018) and disturbance factors were evaluated from information of local people provided in questionnaires. Generalized-linear models (GLMs) showed a significant effect of disturbance factors on Western Tragopans, i.e. local abundances decreased with increasing disturbance from livestock, collectors and hunters visiting the area. This effect was visible across survey years and at both, south- as well as north-facing slopes. While the known distributional range of the Western Tragopan is small and fragmented, our niche models inferred climatically suitable space between Himachal Pradesh and northwestern Pakistan to be more continuous. Given the species sensitivity to disturbance, these findings indicate that the observed fragmentation of the current range might also be attributed to habitat transformation or anthropogenic disturbance rather than climatic suitability. During the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) T. melanocephalus was probably restricted to small forest refugia, whereas projections onto eleven future climate simulations were inconclusive with the majority suggesting that climatically suitable space for T. melanocephalus will likely expand in response to anthropogenic climate change. In conclusion, we recommend that future conservation measures should be planned with regard to the species’ sensitivity to anthropogenic disturbances.

Gondwanan survivor lineages and the high‐risk biogeography of Anthropocene Southeast Asia

AbstractThe Southeast Asian rainforest region is extremely complex and biodiverse. Fossils have shown that paleo‐Antarctic rainforest lineages (PARLs) now extant in Asia tracked the ever‐wet conditions needed to survive and diversify through deep time. However, the threat of future climate change to the remaining rainforest and PARLs in Southeast Asia has yet to be evaluated to set conservation priorities. We first quantified the woody‐genus floristic relationships of Southeast Asian Island Groups by vetting and analyzing recent compilations of bioregional species data. We then evaluated the contributions to community assembly of woody fossil lineages and Island Group relationships to environmental gradients. To better understand climatic constraints of fossil lineage distributions and forecast distributions under projected future climate, we used exemplar living woody PARLs, including two angiosperms and two gymnosperms. Generalized linear models were used to project potential distributions under future climate pathways that assume no reduction in carbon dioxide emissions. The floristic analyses highlighted strong similarities among Island Groups in the ever‐wet forest areas of Malesia, where PARLs are often concentrated. Ordination outliers represented more seasonal locations. Species distribution models showed that potential future distributions of ancient lineages are constrained by increasing rainfall seasonality and higher seasonal temperatures, with significant differences among exemplar genera. Notably, potential distributions often mapped onto de facto inaccessible areas, where forest clearing and the ubiquitous marine dispersal barriers that characterize the region will drastically inhibit potential relocation. These realities gravely threaten paleo‐conservation values and contemporary rainforest community assembly processes in Southeast Asia.

Predicting Current and Future Potential Distributions of Parthenium hysterophorus in Bangladesh Using Maximum Entropy Ecological Niche Modelling

Parthenium weed (Parthenium hysterophorus L.) is among the most noxious invasive alien plant species, which can pose a threat to agro- and native-ecosystems. Despite potential parthenium infestation risks at the south-western regions of the Ganges–Brahmaputra floodplains of Bangladesh, no studies exist that document parthenium infestation. Using field surveys and a maximum entropy (Maxent) modelling approach, the present study tries to address the problem in the concerned region comprised of five Districts: Jashore, Jhenaidah, Chuadanga, Meherpur, and Khustia. The results revealed high infestation in the Jashore, Jhenaidah, and Chuadanga Districts, mainly along roadsides, in grasslands, and in fallow and cropped fields. The greatest abundance of the weed (ca. 30 plants m−2) occurred at the Indian border area, suggesting cross-border spreading, possibly through the linking road systems. Furthermore, we found that under both low and high emissions scenarios (Representative Concentration Pathways 2.6 and 8.5), parthenium weed suitability areas were likely to expand, suggesting an increased threat to the agro-ecosystems of Bangladesh. The present study is the first attempt to survey and model potential parthenium weed distribution affecting one of the major hubs of agricultural production in Bangladesh. The findings of this study can help land managers to make judicious decisions towards the future management of these agro-ecosystems.