Future-oriented Technology Research Articles

AWJM Factors Categorization and Identification

Water jet cutting technology (hydro-erosion) presents as unique, for future-oriented technology, with the high possibility of the introduction of automation for high-power cutting for actually all types of materials.The aim of the way was to find the definition of cutting parameters of water jet, which will guarantee technological and economical aspects. This process is associated with extensive utilisation of mathematical methods, using of computational procedures for specific tasks and at the utilisation of methodology of mathematics for methods of formulating solutions.

A framework, with embedded FTA, to enable business networks to evolve towards sustainable development

This paper suggests a dynamic framework of continual learning to enable a business to develop a capacity to anticipate and address change within the networks in which it is embedded, using future-oriented technology analysis (FTA) thinking to shape the business's path towards sustainable development. The proposed framework has been devised to enable a firm to become a participant that helps shaping the path to a common vision within its network being flexible enough to adapt to the changing circumstances of the environment and of its relationships. The objective is to help organisations create a tailored as well as a common strategy in their network of relationships, with the support of FTA, achieving influence among their partners to progress towards higher levels of sustainable development, in order to reach the desired common vision of sustainability.

Ignorance and uncertainty: influences on future-oriented technology analysis

Future-oriented Technology Analysis (FTA) deals in phenomenological ignorance of three kinds (known unknowns, unknown knowns and unknown unknowns) that give rise to its basis in subjective opinion. These invade both the qualitative and quantitative information co-joined to create outcomes for policy and management in all the STEEPV (Social, Technological, Economic, Ecology, Politics and Values and Norms) themes. FTA then becomes an imaginative projection of current knowledge in which formal methods/techniques play a subsidiary role following Wittgenstein's dictum that ‘methods pass the problem by’. These contentious matters form a platform for discussion, concluding that FTA's practical outcomes are underlain by human behaviour, subsumed under subjective opinion in many dimensions and will be more so as FTA becomes involved with technologies of great social and commercial complexity.

Foresight in an unpredictable world

Unpredictability has two main sources: epistemic uncertainty and ontological unpredictability. When disruptive and downstream innovations become frequent, ontological unpredictability becomes increasingly important for innovation policy and strategy. The analysis of the nature of ontological unpredictability explains why future-oriented technology analysis and foresight frequently fail to grasp socially and economically important technical developments and clarifies why policy, strategy, and future-oriented analysis need to move beyond evidence-based approaches.

Futures Studies and Future-Oriented Technology Analysis Principles, Methodology and Research Questions

Futures studies are the scientific study of possible, desirable, and probable future developments and scope for design, as well as the conditions for these in the past and in the present. Modern futures studies assume that the future is not entirely determinable and that different future developments (‘futures’) are possible and there is scope for design. They are based on the realization that there are indeed a great number of possible futures but that these are not arbitrary. The term ‘Future-oriented Technology Analysis’ refers to potent changes and challenges for futures studies at the interface of technological change with increasingly science-based innovation, attention to societal issues and concerns. Futures Studies and Future-oriented Technology analysis are concerned with complex dynamic systems and processes and engage multiple stakeholders in participatory and interdisciplinary processes to assure distributed understanding and sustainable development. The article discusses principles and context of Futures studies and Futures analyses methodology. It puts forward five core research lines to outline Futures studies contribution to addressing issues in the research area of Internet & Society.

Visualising potential innovation pathways in a workshop setting: the case of nano-enabled biosensors

A key element in many future-oriented technology analyses is the expert forecasting workshop. These workshops provide a means of combining codified and tacit knowledge to explore the plausibility of various technology options, providing key intelligence for assessing the potential innovations that may stem from them. This paper offers a five-stage approach to conducting such a workshop. It reflects on attributes of one such session, conducted within a larger study concerning biosensor innovation pathways. The workshop drew upon quantitative and qualitative data to stimulate the consideration of future prospects. We reflect on issues in conveying prior analyses to the workshop participants, keying on the value of succinct visualisations. Post-workshop synthesis resulted in the generation of three innovation pathways for nanobiosensors.

Orienting European innovation systems towards grand challenges and the roles that FTA can play

A strong research and innovation policy discourse has emerged in recent years around the need to address ‘grand challenges’, particularly at EU level. This paper highlights the contributions that future-oriented technology analysis (FTA) might make to orienting innovation processes towards grand challenges. It takes a ‘systems of innovation’ approach and focuses on the structural and functional aspects of such systems to consider the relevant roles of FTA. In this context, FTA can generate ‘informing’, ‘structuring’ and ‘capacity-building’ benefits while enabling a shift in innovation foci towards grand challenges. However, FTA could be better exploited to deliver its structuring and capacity-building benefits, which are hardly recognised in the EU’s existing innovation policy instruments, in order to effectively reorient the EU’s innovation systems towards grand challenges.

Coping with a fast-changing world: Towards new systems of future-oriented technology analysis

Transformations linked to disruptive events are causing a shift in future-oriented technology analysis (FTA) activities from individual large-scale foresight actions to smaller in-house exercises and capacity building. The reasons are manifold relating to the need for an even tighter embedding of FTA in policy-making in a fast-changing complex environment as well as to internal drivers for novel forms of future intelligence to support coordinated and coherent decisions within and across organisations. This paper identifies three ideal types: external FTA services, the institutionalisation of FTA, and FTA networks, whilst recognising that in practice these types are complementary. In empirical terms this requires further investigation, in order to understand how different combinations of activities actually operate in their respective decision-making contexts. It is important to improve our understanding of how far institutionalised FTA can form part of customised solutions for building capacity to handle disruptions.

On concepts and methods in horizon scanning: Lessons from initiating policy dialogues on emerging issues

Future-oriented technology analysis methods can play a significant role in enabling early warning signal detection and pro-active policy action which will help to better prepare policy- and decision-makers in today’s complex and inter-dependent environments. This paper analyses the use of different horizon scanning approaches and methods as applied in the Scanning for Emerging Science and Technology Issues project. A comparative analysis is provided as well as a brief evaluation the needs of policy-makers if they are to identify areas in which policy needs to be formulated. This paper suggests that the selection of the best scanning approaches and methods is subject to contextual and content issues. At the same time, there are certain issues which characterise horizon scanning processes, methods and results that should be kept in mind by both practitioners and policy-makers.

The role of FTA in responding to grand challenges: A new approach for STI policy?

The Fourth International Seville Conference on Future-Oriented Technology Analysis (FTA) held in May 2011, focussed on the need and potential of FTA to address disruptive transformations in global and national structures, systems, rules and practices in response to grand societal challenges. This introductory paper provides an overview of selected conference contributions and the perspectives in which they address key issues in the development and implementation of FTA in relation to these challenges. These papers examine the reorientation of research and innovation systems and the integration of FTA within them. New approaches to FTA are also examined, with lessons drawn from the experiences at both national and international levels in the application of FTA. Copyright The Author 2012. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com, Oxford University Press.

Asian-Japanese: State Apology, National Ethos, and the “Comfort Women” Reparations Debate in Japan

Recent scholarship on apology has shifted its critical emphasis from the juridical use of apology as a means of self-defense to the moral value of apology as integral to specific reconciliation processes. This article examines the “comfort women” reparations debate in Japan in the 1990s as symptomatic of this change in how we think about apology and reparations. It illustrates how “comfort women” reparation lawsuits disrupted the symbolic economy of political apology in an inter-Asian political context and, thus, transformed the rhetorical force of apology from a past-oriented to a future-oriented technology of care.

Forecasting Innovation Pathways (FIP) for new and emerging science and technologies

“New” and “Emerging Science” and “Technologies” (“NESTs”) have tremendous innovation potential. However this must be weighed against enormous uncertainties caused by many unknowns. The authors of this paper offer a framework to analyze NESTs to help ascertain likely innovation pathways. We have devised a 10-step framework based on extensive Future-oriented Technology Analyses (“FTA”) experience, enriched by in-depth case analyses. In the paper, we describe our analytical activities in two case studies. The nanobiosensor experience is contrasted with that of deep brain stimulation in relative quantitative and qualitative emphases. We close the paper by reflecting on this systematic FTA framework for emerging science and technologies, for its intended goal, that is to support decision making.

Анализ технологий, ориентированный на будущее: проблема «Кассандры»

Джонстон Рон- профессор Австралийского центра инноваций, Инженерный факультет, Университет Сиднея (Австралия). E-mail: rj@aciic.eng.usyd.edu.au Адрес: Australian Centre for Innovation, Faculty of Engineering University of Sydney, NSW 2006Статья основана на серии интервью с девятью ведущими исследователями-участниками Международной конференции «Анализ технологий, ориентированный на будущее», прошедшей в Севилье 16-17 октября 2008 г.Результаты опроса позволяют предположить, что анализ технологий, ориентированный на будущее (future-oriented technology analysis, FTA), играет важную роль в решении кратко- и долгосрочных проблем во многих странах. Значительные успехи достигнуты в развитии методологии и применении его результатов. Главная задача заключается в том, чтобы добиться максимального эффекта исследований будущего с помощью FTA и его наглядно продемонстрировать. В противном случае прогнозы ожидающего нас будущего останутся в значительной степени неуслышанными, подобно пророчествам Кассандры.

Characterising a technology development at the stage of early emerging applications: nanomaterial-enhanced biosensors

We devise future-oriented technology analyses tools to investigate a technology at an interesting development stage of early emerging applications. At this stage, technologies show great potential with little established commercialisation. Future development pathways are highly uncertain and heavily dependent on contextual interactions. We apply R&D profiling, R&D-to-applications cross-charting, and technology delivery system modelling to help understand the phenomena that bear upon development prospects. We develop our approach through a two-tier case study: general treatment of nanomaterial-enhanced biosensors, followed by more specialised treatment of one subset of those. Results convey the importance of considering technological and social context factors together to understand likely innovation pathways.

FTA and equity: New approaches to governance

FTA and equity addresses the need for multiple stakeholders’ participation in public policy and corporate decision making thus leading to more democratic societies. The need for more participative and inclusive decision making is due to the move from the technocratic nature of decision making towards more democratic processes, which is a result of the transformation of societies and situations as a result of various factors including globalisation, environmental concerns, more knowledge intensive work and lifestyle. The current paper addresses Future-oriented Technology Analyses (FTA) in the context of a better understanding of issues that ought to be considered by the FTA community so that it can support the quest for new forms of governance. The paper has been structured on the discussion of governance around three pillars: socio-cultural evolution, corporate industrial activity and government. Analysis of the relationship between governance and each of the three pillars poses a number of questions to the FTA community that reflect on the potential impacts of FTA activities in governance. Setting a new landscape for the FTA, the paper concludes with those issues where the FTA community is starting to devote attention, as well as those it still ought to consider.

The influence of future-oriented technology analysis: Addressing the Cassandra challenge

This paper is based on a series of interviews with nine leading researchers conducted during the Future-Oriented Technology Analysis International Conference held in Seville on 16–17 October 2008. Analysis of these interviews paints a picture of FTA as an increasingly important approach being adopted in many countries to address the many challenges which are emerging at this time in human history. From this are drawn implications for the community of FTA practitioners. The biggest challenge is to achieve and demonstrate a greater impact of FTA studies. Otherwise the views of the possible futures that await us may continue to go largely unheard and unheeded, as with Cassandra's prophecies.

Joint horizon scanning: identifying common strategic choices and questions for knowledge

Over the past decade, horizon scanning has been recognised as part of forward-looking government processes in a number of industrialised countries. It helps policy-makers in addressing the diversity of future societal and environmental challenges and in addressing the potential of emerging areas of science and technology in an integrated way. This paper discusses the usefulness of horizon scanning as an additional tool for future-oriented technology analysis activities, such as technology foresight and scenario building. Analysing the national horizon scans of the UK, the Netherlands and Denmark in a joint horizon pilot project initiated under the ERA-Net ForSociety, this paper makes a series of recommendations regarding horizon scanning processes at the national level and the construction of common future-oriented policies.

Future technology analysis for biosecurity and emerging infectious diseases in Asia-Pacific

This paper presents a future-oriented technology analysis (FTA) project on the control and management of emerging infectious diseases (EID) in the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation region. It combines several FTA methods. Technologies that are potentially effective in biosecurity and in combating EID were first identified by bibliometric analysis, online survey and scenario planning. Roadmaps of these technologies were then built. Workshops to conduct the foresight process were held in the region. Four scenarios and six technology roadmaps for the region were developed. The results show that many future technologies will converge to become most effective in dealing with biosecurity and EID. This paper deals with cross-disciplinary technologies in the context of a cross-boundary regional setting, which has important methodological implications. Copyright , Beech Tree Publishing.

Introduction to a special section: Impacts and implications of future-oriented technology analysis for policy and decision-making

Experiences of recent years place a premium, for governments and individuals, on being able to discern the possible shape of the future: what is likely to influence it, and what can be done to prepare for it. This special section is based on selected papers from the Third International Seville Seminar on Future-Oriented Technology Analysis, held 16–17 October 2008 at Seville, Spain, which addressed the challenge of increasing the impact of future-oriented t echnology analysis on policy and decision-making.

Integrating future-oriented technology analysis and risk assessment methodologies

This paper examines the potential of integrating future-oriented technology analysis (FTA) with risk assessment methodologies and tools, with the aim of developing more proactive risk assessments and also systematically including risk assessment in future-oriented technology analysis. The similarities and development challenges of foresight, Technology Analysis (TA) and risk assessment methodologies are discussed in the light of the empirical material gathered from projects performed at VTT. Among the projects are IRRIIS project focusing on risk assessment of critical infrastructures, INNORISK project aiming at managing opportunities, risk and uncertainties in new business creation and a project related to the climate change (CES). The case projects are positioned according to their important design dimensions (informative vs. instrumental outcomes; consensual vs. diverse future perspectives, extensive vs. exclusive stakeholder involvement, and autonomous vs. fixed management). The common and complementary features of FTA and risk assessment are discussed, suggesting new ways to evolve the modular design when integrating FTA and risk assessment methodologies and tools.