Future Of Afghanistan Research Articles

The future of Afghanistan under Taliban-led regime: challenges and likely scenarios

Since the takeover of the Afghan Taliban, there has been a lack of cohesion on the internal and external front and critical issues, including international recognition, the question of ethnicity, inclusive government, human rights, internal and external security, economy, and regional implication of the security and insecurity. Therefore, this paper aims to explore the likely challenges for the Taliban government in Afghanistan. Being the centre stage of the regional security complex and the diverse ethnic composition, Afghanistan remains an active ground for various fundamental ideologies. The Tehreek Taliban Pakistan (TTP) elements are freely roaming in Afghanistan, along with the news that the Islamic State of Khorasan (ISK) has regrouped itself in various parts of Afghanistan. The questions of terrorist groups are a major concern for the world and the neighbouring states of Afghanistan. Political legitimacy and international recognition are significant challenges for the Taliban regime. Similarly, economic problems and human rights violations are also critical challenges for the Taliban regime. Maintaining good relations with neighbouring states is crucial in ending the diplomatic isolation of the Taliban regime. All these are essential questions for the Taliban regime and the world, and this study has attempted to investigate and analyse possible solutions.

Taliban insurgency in Afghanistan: a comparative analysis between 1996 and 2021

The Taliban's return to power in Afghanistan in 2021 has significant implications for the country, the region, and the international community. The group's past government was marked by human rights abuses and support for terrorism, which raises concerns about their ability to govern effectively and address the country's challenges. Comparing the different approaches taken by the Taliban in 1996 and 2021 to achieve power, as well as the group's behavioral differences in both moments, through their speeches and concern for the image caused abroad, it is possible to notice that the new established government breaks, at least in public image, with the group's stereotype, trying to adapt to the new international scenario, which is very different from the late 1990s. The veracity of the statements made by Taliban representatives in Afghanistan regarding the measures that would be taken and the caution for the maintenance of human rights is not the subject of study in this work. It only seeks to demonstrate the government's intention to establish connections with the international community and the unprecedented concern for the repercussion of their actions abroad. The Taliban's relationship with neighboring countries such as Pakistan, Iran, and China will also shape Afghanistan's future, as well as commercial agreements with countries such as Russia, which can be decisive for managing the Afghan economy (BHATIA, 2021).

Geo-Politics of Afghanistan under Taliban Regime:

Abstract
 Taliban seized power in Kabul on 15th August 2021 after the abrupt pulling out of US and NATO forces from Afghanistan. Taliban assured international community about the human rights protection, women education, freedom of media, and no use of Afghan soil by terrorists against any other country. These assurances appraised international community not to oppose their regime. However, after more than a year has passed, future of Afghanistan is still uncertain. This study tries to analyse the geo-politics of Afghanistan after the fall of Kabul to Taliban. It tries to explore the reasons for non-confrontationist policies by the neighboring states as well as regional powers. Qualitative methodology with secondary sources has been used in this research. Findings of the research reveal that despite assurances by Taliban regime, Afghanistan is gradually plunging into the similar situation of 1990s. However, from regional integration perspective, there are high hopes that it can act as bridge between Central and South Asia and China with the Persian Gulf. Regional countries must contribute for the peace and development of Afghanistan by supporting the people of Afghanistan to decide their future. Afghanistan can either be a roundabout or a dead end street for the regional states that depends on the region’s policies towards it.

Sowing the wheat seeds of Afghanistan's future

Societal Impact StatementThe production and availability of food underpins societal stability. In Afghanistan, wheat is the major arable agricultural crop and source of dietary energy. The withdrawal of NATO allies and partner countries from Afghanistan presents numerous well‐documented societal and political challenges and has impacts on immediate and longer‐term food security. Conflict‐impacted irrigation infrastructure coupled with growing climate instability have also contributed markedly to reductions in current food, and specifically wheat, production. Here, we review the status of Afghan wheat improvement and propose a research agenda to support the regeneration of Afghanistan's wheat and agricultural sector.SummaryAfghanistan is a country with diverse natural ecologies in a largely arid and mountainous region. The rural sector is still considered to drive economic potential. Current social, political and economic instability along with climatic challenges are driving food and water insecurity in the wider region. In the short term, it is likely that this and the associated challenges of displacement and unemployment can only be addressed by humanitarian intervention and agrifood and nutrition support. In the medium to long term, drought, and heat, probably linked to climate change, will pose recurrent challenges for agriculture and food security that will require a much broader set of interventions to secure the rural population's livelihoods. The genetic gap, among other major challenges, must be addressed if Afghanistan is to develop its agricultural potential leading to income and livelihood improvements for farmers and stable and accessible supplies for consumers. Only thereby will the country be enabled to reap the important and long‐sought trade and food security benefits derived from self‐sufficiency. Here, we highlight the agricultural challenges facing Afghanistan and propose forward strategies for ensuring the future stability of wheat production, the cornerstone of Afghan agriculture.

EXPLORING INDIA'S STRATEGY IN AFGHANISTAN AFTER US WITHDRAWAL TO DEAL WITH THE TALIBAN

Situation in Afghanistan is changing rapidly after the intrusion and increasing dominance of Taliban and recently with the United States and the Taliban reached an agreement on February 29, 2020, which will mark a turning point in America's longest war. As a result, the majority of US troops in Afghanistan are expected to leave by the end of 2021. As a result, if this agreement is implemented properly, factions of the Taliban may have a greater foothold in Afghan politics. For a country like India, this is not ideal. So, considering all these situations and information, this paper was designed to understand the current strategies of India after America’s withdrawal from Afghanistan. The research identified that in Afghanistan, the Haqqani network, a prominent Taliban branch, has assaulted Indian installations. India need the presence of US-led soldiers as well as a sense of stability in order to invest in Afghanistan's future. India's stability is under jeopardy, and it has to refocus its aspirations immediately. In today's fast-changing world, this essay analyses the dangers of India's involvement in Afghanistan and offers strategies to address them. The US-Taliban agreement states that the Taliban would not allow terrorist groups to operate on Afghan soil, but it is unclear how the agreement will be monitored and carried out. The strategies currently deployed by India includes the different trade agreements or approvals to conduct business activities for economic welfare of both nations, mutual understanding for geopolitical situations, future developments etc.

WHAT COMES NEXT: CENTRAL ASIAN VIOLENT EXTREMIST GROUPS AND DRUG TRAFFICKING AFTER THE FALL OF KABUL

The withdrawal of the international forces from Afghanistan will likely increase the role of Central Asian violent extremist groups in the production and transit of illicit goods to and from Afghanistan. While violent extremist groups will maintain the capacity to inspire and perhaps, even carry out limited attacks in Central Asian republics in the short to medium term, their capacity will be limited. Conversely, given the Taliban's control of the majority of Afghanistan, these same groups will play an increasingly important role in the multi-billion-dollar drug trade stemming from the country. The future of Afghanistan is still far from decided but Central Asian violent extremist organizations will likely play a role in whatever is to come.

Future of Afghanistan after US Troop’s Withdrawal

Future of Afghanistan after US Troop’s Withdrawal

Post 9/11 Trends: Bush to Obama to Trump (Multilateralism and Peace Initiatives in Afghanistan)

The overall U.S. strategy in Afghanistan lacks clarity and consistently coordinated efforts/policies to bring peace in the war-torn country. From the Bush to Obama and Trump administrations, the situation remains complex, and ambiguity prevails on the future of Afghanistan and achievements; therefore, the U.S. needs to think outside the box to emerge from this turbulent 19 years-long war. No single country can bring peace and security in Afghanistan due to its complex and diverse nature of issues, its history of conflicts and unsettled domestic issues, which divided the nation into different tribes and factions. The continuity in using soft and smart powers, a multilateral approach, along with Principal-Agent theory, would help to further pave the way forward for bringing peace in Afghanistan. The consistent approach towards state-building and nationbuilding took by U.S. coalitions, and the U.N. will have a positive impact and create a consensus to develop a peaceful and stable Afghanistan.

Endurance and resilience: a study of the subaltern voice in a thousand splendid suns

Dedicated to the women of Afghanistan, Khalid Hosseini’s second novel A Thousand Splendid Suns delivers a heartbreaking portrayal of women in Afghanistan during the years of Soviet occupation, then the civil war and the Taliban dictatorship. According to Gayatri Chakravorti Spivak, the subaltern women are more susceptible to oppression and pressure than subaltern men because they are the second sex destined to be silent. The subaltern women community in Afghanistan portrayed through the lives of Nana and her daughter Mariam, Laila and her daughter Aziza in the novel, is triply suppressed by patriarchy, militarization and religious fundamentalism. This paper studies the existence of the subaltern women community in Afghanistan as portrayed in the novel A Thousand Splendid Suns and their attempts to “speak”. The two central characters Mariam and Laila, belonging to two different generations and brought together by their violent and cruel husband Rasheed, develops a mother-daughter relationship between them and use their love as a weapon to combat patriarchy. Through them the novel tells the story of a thousand splendid women who through their courage, endurance and resilience becomes the hope and future of Afghanistan.

Coming of Age in the Shadow of the Taliban: Education, Child Marriage, and the Future of Afghanistan From the Perspectives of Adolescents and Their Parents

ObjectiveTo understand adolescent and parental attitudes toward education, child marriage, and the changes in matriculation for boys and girls over one generation. MethodsTwo-staged household sampling method was used in six provinces with low educational enrollment in Afghanistan during 2016. Final sample included 910 adolescents aged 12–15 years and 454 parents. Data analysis included k-Nearest Neighbour imputation for missing values. Response percentages were compared by two-tail proportional z-test for two-sample comparison or Chi-squared test for multiple groups comparison with adjusted p values. ResultsAdolescents reported highly valuing education but considered boys to be greater beneficiaries than girls. Over 90% of parents concur expecting their children to complete at least secondary education independent of the child's sex with more than a third (37.89%) indicating that marriage should be postponed until at least high school completion. Likewise, both boys and girls believe marriage of girls under age 18-years limits future educational opportunities as well as increases risks of domestic violence and loss of freedom. Whereas a generation ago four-out-of-five parents of today's adolescents were not in school, today that has reversed; and among 12–15 year olds in the provinces studied, 75% were in school at the time of the survey. ConclusionsIn the most disadvantaged provinces of Afghanistan, almost all young adolescents surveyed (98.8%) were not married and the majority were in school while an equal percent of their parents had no formal education. Additionally, both parents report that education of their sons and daughters is highly valued; and, for two-fifths, they believe marriage should occur after completion of secondary school.

Pakistan and the United States: A More Turbulent Ride?

The news following Donald Trump's unexpected victory in the U.S. presidential election has provided a steady dose of drama to the often turbulent U.S.-Pakistan relationship. During the campaign, Trump promised to clamp down on radical Islamic terrorism and proposed a total ban on Muslims entering the United States, later scaling this back to extreme vetting.1 Three weeks after the election came the phone conversation between Pakistani prime minister Nawaz Sharif and Trump. The Pakistani government's press release described the conversation as an effusive exchange, with Trump quoted as saying you are a terrific guy and that Pakistanis are of the most intelligent people.2 The Pakistani account also described a Trump offer to mediate Pakistan's outstanding problems. This astonishing range of views from the incoming U.S. leader would appear to foreshadow a time of great unpredictability in U.S.-Pakistan ties.U.S.-Pakistan relations have generated intense frustration for both countries. But Pakistan has 180 million people, nuclear weapons, and a major unresolved dispute with a nuclear neighbor. Among armed groups present there, some are starkly at odds with the government, others the army regards as intelligence assets, and some the United States regards as terrorists. Pakistan also has close political and growing economic relations with China, which it considers its most faithful friend. The new U.S. administration, like its predecessors, will need to deal seriously with Pakistan. Recent commentary referring to Pakistan, despite its history of alliance with the United States, as a frenemy captures some of the ambiguity in this complicated relationship.2Are Pakistan and the United States Partners?The strategic drivers of U.S.-Pakistan relations have had considerable staying power over the years. The United States and Pakistan have been security partners in one form or another since 1954. There have been three periods of especially intense engagement: the early Cold War from 1954 until the India-Pakistan war of 1965, the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan and its aftermath from 1979 to 1990, and the period since the attacks on the United States on September 11, 2001. During all three periods, Pakistan's main strategic goal was to line up support from major powers against what it saw as an existential threat from its large neighbor, India. The U.S. objectives, on the other hand, reflected strategic goals outside Pakistan-developing the Cold War alliance system in the 1950s, responding to the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan in the 1980s, and after 2001 conducting the war on terrorism, in which Afghanistan was a sanctuary for the terrorists who attacked New York and Washington, D.C.The two countries' strategic objectives, in other words, were only partly aligned. They believed they needed each other but also worked at cross-purposes. In the past decade, their mismatched goals have badly frayed their partnership, generating mistrust and cynicism in both countries. Popular support for the United States has fallen starkly in Pakistan. In the United States, congressional support for Pakistan remained strong until the late 1980s but has declined sharply in the past decade.Looking ahead, the U.S.-Pakistan strategic disconnect will continue to shape two key U.S. strategic interests: the future of Afghanistan and peace between the two nuclear neighbors, India and Pakistan. However, some of the positions advanced by the Trump campaign, the Trump administration's key personalities, and Trump's own style will powerfully affect the environment in which both countries make policy. They will particularly affect other highly emotive issues with which the United States and Pakistan have wrestled, greatly heightening the volatility of the relationship.Afghanistan and TerrorismAfghanistan has been at the heart of U.S.-Pakistan engagement since the attacks of September 11. As part of the strategic partnership against terrorism, the United States provided Pakistan with substantial assistance, which it hoped would enlist Pakistan in preventing Afghanistan from again becoming a haven for terrorism. …

Press and ethnic polarization in post-2001 Afghanistan: the 2014 presidential election experience

This article analyses the contents of three newspapers affiliated with the Tajik-dominated Jamiat and Shura-e-Nezar factions that were deployed during the 2014 presidential election to publicize ethno-political polarization for instrumental ends. The practice of nurturing ethnic identities serves as a microcosm of the broader context in which identity politics, besides coalition-building, rent-seeking, and patrimonial interdependencies, has become a key feature of post-2001 politics. This article focuses on how these factions used these newspapers to polarize ethnic cleavages to win legitimacy for themselves and defamation for their Pashtun-dominated rival factions – Hezb-e-Islami Gulbuddin and the Taliban. It will be years before the ethnic mujahedeen and muhajereen and the new generation reach a mutually binding and working condition that facilitates the country's long-term stability. Reaching this condition is critical because the future of Afghanistan lies in the commitment of its people to form a united community that resolves disputes in the manner of a democratic nation.

State-building and the armed forces in modern Afghanistan: A structural analysis

NATO’s ISAF mission in Afghanistan ended on 31 December 2014. The future of Afghanistan is now largely in the hands of the Afghan National Army (ANA). NATO countries have invested billions of dollars in the ANA to create an actor that can provide stability and partner with the Afghan government to further state development. But civil-military relations in Afghanistan have proven historically difficult. NATO allies believe that the ANA will be a partner for the government, but the military might also intervene in governance, and become a destabilizing force. Using the unique timing of the ANA’s development and NATO handover, this article applies the Stepan-Desch’s structural theory of civil-military relations to the case of Afghanistan to hypothesize about the future of Afghan civil-military relations. It argues that, given the dominance of internal threats in Afghanistan, it is highly likely that the military will intervene directly in Afghan governance, rather than maintain a western standard of military non-involvement in governance.

The Other Drawdown in Afghanistan

If the international community wants to secure the real gains it has made in Afghanistan, it needs to stop obsessing about the troop drawdown and begin figuring out how to avert the funding drawdown that is the single biggest threat to Afghanistan's future.

Welfare Impacts of Afghan Trade on the Pakistani Provinces of Balochistan and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa

Amidst all the concerns of uncertainty over the future of Afghanistan, recent developments have given hope to the world, specifically south and central Asia. A coalition government has now been established following the deadlock that came after the May 2014 elections. President Ashraf Ghani and Chief Executive Officer Abdullah have already signed a Bilateral Security Agreement (BSA) between Kabul and Washington, according to which 9800 troops will remain in Afghanistan beyond 2015. Furthermore, the government of Afghanistan seeks the support of the neighbouring countries to keep peace in the region. Despite all these concrete steps, there has been an increased number of terror attacks and drone operations which has put a big question mark on the stability of the country. How Afghanistan tackles these rising problems will be crucial in defining its future, the trickle-down effects of which will determine the stability of the Afghan-Pakistan region. Concerns about what the future holds for this region with a long history of violence and insurgency are currently being voiced at many levels of society, including on talk shows, at government meetings, within NGOs, and at business forums. Unlike most of the studies done on the Afghan-Pakistan region that focus on the security of the region, this article focuses on the welfare and economic impacts of post-2014 Afghanistan on the neighbouring Pakistani provinces of Balochistan and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, at the household level.

President of the state in the Afghan Constitutions

The institution of the president exists in the majority of the countries of the western world.Depending on the prerogatives granted by the constitution, the president may performeither a representative function or have the real power. No matter what the role of thepresident is, the position is deeply embedded in the political system, and the constitutional law as well as political practice specify its scope of competencies and capabilities.When we go beyond the Euro-Atlantic area, we can also find the states where an officeof president is run. While its formation, Asian, African and South American societies,consciously or not, usually emulated the Euro-Atlantic experiences. In general, historicalbackground of the non-European states, however, makes the history of the presidentialoffice shorter, and the introduction of this position was often a result of violent sociopolitical changes. What often distinguishes the presidencies of the African and Asiancountries from the Euro-Atlantic ones is their instability – in running this office a lotdepends on the personality traits of the person holding it as well as on the tradition (orlack thereof) of strong central governance. On that premise, the presidency history ofa non-European state, i.e. Afghanistan can be presented. This is an interesting case sincethe above mentioned factors are clearly visible in here, and the state’s internal politicalsituation is unstable. In addition, as the international forces are supposed to be withdrawnfrom the country until the end of 2014, the president may then become the main bodyformulating public policy and, thus, shaping the future of Afghanistan.

Will Democracy Survive? Afghanistan and the International Community Post-2014

23 Journal of South Asian and Middle Eastern Studies Vol. XXXVIII, No.4, Summer 2015 Will Democracy Survive? Afghanistan and the International Community Post-2014 Aneek Chatterjee* Introduction The withdrawal of NATO forces from Afghanistan at the end of 2014 has opened up many questions: what would be the future of democracy in Afghanistan if American forces are withdrawn completely from the trouble-torn nation? What would be the stance of important stake holders after such withdrawal? Will the war on terrorism, so eloquently eulogized by the American foreign policy mandarins, get a jolt? What about the Taliban-Al Qaida nexus in the region which has the potential to disturb American interests? Will the U.S. and the Taliban enter into any compromise formula? These are a few among many such questions the withdrawal of international forces from Afghanistan has propelled in recent times. In the backdrop of the formation of new governments in Afghanistan (in 2014), and Pakistan (in 2013), and somewhat shaky U.S.-Pak relations in recent times, these questions have assumed greater significance. The survival of a fragile democracy in Afghanistan will depend on the existence of peace in the country in particular, and in the region in general. However, Afghan peace is dependent, as history has proved, on the wish of many key players, like domestic and external ethnic groups and regional and extraregional stake holders. This paper seeks to examine the Afghan scenario after 2014. For a structured analysis this paper would be divided into a few sections beginning with projections of emerging scenarios in post-2014 Afghanistan and dissecting, in following sections these projections, based on ground reality. *Aneek Chatterjee is a Professor and Head of the Department of Political Science, Presidency University, Kolkata, India. Fulbright-Nehru Visiting Professor (2010-11), University of Virginia, U.S.A. Contact: anik.polsc@presiuniv.ac.in 24 1 Blackwill, Robert D. 2011. “Plan B in Afghanistan: Why a De facto Partition is the Least Bad Option”, Foreign Affairs, 90 (1). Post-2014 Afghanistan: Possible Scenarios The withdrawal of international forces is necessary, yet hazardous for this land-locked country. It is necessary because the Afghans should learn to defend themselves in the absence of international forces; it is hazardous because the Afghans have not yet developed enough skills to tackle disruptive forces. Although ethnic loyalties among the Afghan population are very strong, nationalism also penetrates deep into Afghan minds. Therefore, any plan to divide the nation on ethnic grounds, as advocated by U.S. Ambassador Robert D. Blackwill1` would certainly not work out, simply because of the fact that ethnicity in Afghanistan does not favour division of the country. Therefore, a strong security force, backed by regional and international monetary and technical support, is required for Afghanistan. Now the question is, will the Afghan National Security Force (ANSF) be able to defend the country after the complete withdrawal of international forces? The answer in all probability would be negative. In that case, the country may fall into the hands of the Talibans again or may plunge into another civil war. The international community is confused about the future of Afghanistan, and continuous monetary or technical assistance to meet the demands of peace in Afghanistan is almost impossible. The regional and extra-regional stakeholders have their own calculations and interests, and would not act in a responsible manner to build peace in Afghanistan. However, the absence of peace in Afghanistan has far reaching regional, and also, international implications. For the regions of South, West and Central Asia, a disturbed Afghanistan may imply increased domestic and international pressure. For instance, Talibanization of Afghanistan may destabilise Pakistan (as proved once again by the horrific Peshawar killings in December 2014); enhance the risk of terrorist activities in India, Pakistan and other parts of South Asia; lead to increasing involvement of Central Asian Republics, Iran, and Russia in the affairs of Afghanistan, and also increased trouble for these nations (remember the earlier Soviet engagement). Continued disturbance in Afghanistan will impact politics in Iran and adjoining nations of the Middle-east. Civil wars on ethnic lines may undermine the dream of establishing democracy in Afghanistan. American and NATO interests may suffer in...

The Terrorist International: Is There a Future For a Democratic Afghanistan?

Experts are trying to predict what Afghanistan's future will look like once NATO troops leave the country. Analysts agree that the main problems facing the current Afghan government — corruption, p...

Afghan-Australians: Diasporic Tensions, Homeland Transformations and the “2014 Syndrome”

With the withdrawal of NATO-led troops from Afghanistan pending in 2014, Afghanistan and its sizeable diaspora are facing an ambiguous new beginning. As in Afghanistan itself, the 35,000-strong Afghan community in Australia is negotiating what has been labelled the “2014 Syndrome”—a chronic state of anxiety about Afghanistan's future. Drawing on data from a series of dialogues and consultations held with Afghan-Australians of different ethnicities in Melbourne in 2012 and 2013, this article contextualizes and critically examines the tensions and shared concerns of the Afghan-Australian community in light of the impending withdrawal. Our study shows that the 2014 Syndrome has exacerbated existing tensions over “Afghan” identity in Australia, which has become intertwined with tensions over the status of Hazara asylum seekers and refugees arriving in Australia. Given the widely held belief amongst Afghan-Australians that the 2014 withdrawal will prompt increased flows of asylum seekers from Afghanistan to Australia, this study argues that tensions around identity frame quite different hopes for the future of Afghanistan and the future of the Afghan-Australian community after 2014.

Afghanistan's Future as Seen from Hindustan's Military Past

AbstractThis article stems from an informal inquiry into how military history was employed in British and North American centres for higher military education to prepare officers for deployment to Afghanistan. The discussions were conducted with professional military educators who were actively teaching in institutions tasked with educating middle and senior ranking officers. When questioned about course reading materials and texts, there was little commonality of approach between the three North Atlantic Treaty Organisation (NATO) allies. There was, however, a common working assumption that the only applicable military history lessons were those drawn from the three Anglo-Afghan Wars fought in 1839–1842, 1878–1880 and 1919 respectively.When asked about the linkages of Afghanistan to Pakistan and the wider South Asian region, there was a begrudging admission that the war in Afghanistan could not be fought in isolation and that any lasting peace had to be considered within a greater regional framework. Yet when it was posited that there may be benefit to a wider approach to the applicability of regional military history, those queried could see little to no benefit in considering any military history lessons but those derived from the three previously cited Anglo-Afghan Wars. This paper suggests that if military history has a useful role to play in contemporary conflict analysis and, more importantly, professional military education, then there is merit in considering a wider historic canvas and that the events of Hindustan's military past lend themselves to such an application.