Future Land Research Articles

Ecosystem carbon storage assessment and multi-scenario prediction in the Weihe River Basin based on PLUS-InVEST model.

Land use changes are the main cause for the changes of carbon storage, which is of great importance for maintaining regional carbon balance to make multi-scenario projections of future land use change and explore its impacts on carbon storage. In recent years, under the combination of natural factors and policies, with the land use changing significantly, carbon storage of the Weihe River Basin has also changed. Based on the PLUS-InVEST model, we assessed and predicted the spatial and temporal variations of ecosystem carbon storage in the Weihe River Basin and explored the impacts of land-use change. The results showed that land use distribution pattern of the Weihe River Basin did not change much from 2000 to 2020, which was characterized by the decreases of cropland area and the increases of the area of the remaining land use types. The main ways of land use type conversion were cropland to built-up land and inter-conversion of cropland, forest, grassland. Carbon storage in the Weihe River Basin showed an upward trend from 2000 to 2020, with a total increment of 15.31×106 t. The areas with high carbon storage presented the characteristics of "northeast patch-western scatter-central and southern belt", while low carbon storage distributed in the Guanzhong Plain urban agglomeration located in the lower basin. Compared to 2020, carbon storage in the Weihe River Basin in 2030 would increase under the four scenarios. Carbon storage would increase the least under the economic development scenario, and the most under the ecological protection scenario. The variation of carbon storage in spatial distribution would be embodied in the staggered zone of cropland, forest, and grassland in the upper basin. The results could provide data support for land use management decisions and carbon storage enhancement in the Weihe River Basin.

Problematic Land Buying and Selling Transactions

Introduction: Land ownership has become a primary need, but in the process of land ownership there are still problems. Basically, the acquisition of land rights according to the Decree of the Minister of Agrarian Affairs Number 21 of Article 1 Point 1, the acquisition of land is carried out by transferring land rights or through the delivery of release of land rights followed by granting rights. But this activity is not carried out in its entirety so that it will cause problems in granting rights to the community. Purposes of the Research: This research was conducted in Sanahu Village, Elpaputih District, West Seram Regency. This village prioritizes and gives importance to matters relating to customary land. However, based on the dinamics of the community, transactions carried out by the community should be carried out in accordance with the provisions of the legislation governing land registration in order to obtain legal certainty in the transactions carried out and aim for orderly administration in land sector. Methods of the Research: This research method is empirical juridical research that uses primary and secondary data. The legal materials used are primary legal materials, secondary legal materials with questionnaire and interview methods, data collection techniques with literature studies and field studies. Data processing and analysis techniques use descriptive analytical data analysis by identifying, classifying, then analyzing and describing according to the hierarchy. Results of the Research: Based on have not carried out the first land the results of the interviews, it is known that some people in Sanahu village do not know about the sale and purchase practices that should be taken in order to obtain legal certainty from the sale and purchase transactions carried out. This should be done based on the provisions of Article 19 paragraph 2 of the UUPA, Article 37 of PP 24 of 1997 concerning land registration. As a result, in the event of problems related to previous land transactions, the community had to resolve themselves in a family manner, either without or with assistance from local officials. As a result, the people of Sanahu village have not carried out the initial registration and maintenance of land registration data properly. Because land administration is not orderly, if there are land issues in transactions carried out either by transferring rights or encumbering rights, there will be problems in the future and limit land owners in carriying out legal actions.

Dynamic implementation of land registration acceleration through community participation: A case study in Banjar District, South Kalimantan Province

The government’s land registration program aims to protect communities from future land disputes. However, lack of community support presents challenges to its process and implementation. Utilizing a qualitative case study approach, this article examines these challenges from the community’s perspective, focusing on land registration, community participation, and implementation dynamics. It suggests that learning from these dynamics can enhance the program’s effectiveness, highlighting the need for a systematic approach to community involvement.

Assessing Regional Agency Interest in Truck Freight Planning Practices: Insights from Virginia

Nationally, some regional planning agencies (RPAs) devote less attention to planning for truck freight than for passengers. To increase future regional truck freight planning, this paper reports the survey results from 22 Virginia RPA freight planning practices. Some RPAs were interested in practices not yet undertaken: provision of parking during emergencies (of interest to half the respondents), incorporation of parking needs as part of zoning ordinances (one-third), and provision of locally funded parking areas (a quarter). RPAs were heterogeneous: none of the 50 practices interested all RPAs and, on average, a given practice interested just 23% of respondents. Practices rarely undertaken but of high interest included identifying critical gaps in the truck freight network, identifying load-restricted bridges affecting business deliveries, and incorporation of parking needs into zoning ordinances. Accordingly, one such practice was piloted with one RPA, demonstrating that having adequate off-site locations to situate trucks for unloading is a pressing problem. The survey and pilot revealed that truck freight planning can be encouraged by tailoring practices to tightly defined regional interests. One pilot question concerned how future land use might stimulate off-site parking demand near pickup or delivery points. The ability to give a rough answer quickly led to a resulting action item proposed by the locality: explicit consideration of truck parking within the county comprehensive plan. The results showed that although additional data can yield a more exact answer, sketch-level planning information was sufficient to initiate a collaborative effort between a state and a willing regional participant.

Trend analysis of long-time series habitat quality in Beijing based on multiple models

This study selects Beijing from 1980 to 2020 as the research area, utilizing high temporal resolution land use data to analyze through the habitat quality module of the InVEST model. Unlike previous research, this study employs the Theil-Sen Median method and Mann-Kendall test to analyze the trend changes in habitat quality more accurately. This method has significant advantages in dealing with non-linear and non-normally distributed data over long time series, providing a more accurate and reliable analysis of habitat quality trends. Methodologically, the study first collects and organizes the land use type data of Beijing from 1980 to 2020, then uses the habitat quality module of the InVEST model to process and analyze the data of each year, assessing the impact of different land use types on habitat quality. Subsequently, the Theil-Sen Median method and Mann-Kendall test are used to analyze the time series trend of habitat quality, to identify and quantify the trend and significance of habitat quality changes. The results show that over the past 40 years, the area of construction land in Beijing has significantly expanded, leading to a compression of other types of land. The spatial distribution of habitat quality shows a clear difference between the two sides divided by a line connecting the northeast and southwest, with the west side being the area of good habitat quality and the east side being poorer. In the past 10 years, the overall habitat quality has improved, but most areas still show a decreasing trend, especially in the western and northern mountainous areas where habitat quality has significantly declined. Based on these findings, it is recommended that future urban planning and land management should pay more attention to the protection and improvement of habitat quality, especially the restoration work for areas with poor habitat quality.

From Expansion to Shrinkage: An Assessment of the Carbon Effect from Spatial Reconfiguration of Rural Human Settlements in the Wuhan Metropolitan Area

Nowadays, the reorganization of rural land-use space exhibits a dynamic process of expansion and shrinkage. Taking the Wuhan Metropolitan Area as an example, this study used the InVEST model to quantitatively assess changes in rural built-up land between 1995 and 2020 and its impact on regional carbon storage. Combined with the PLUS model, further simulations were carried out to predict the heterogeneous mechanisms of shrinkage and expansion of rural habitable space under three scenarios in 2030. The results indicate that the area of rural built-up land in the Wuhan Metropolitan Area showed an overall increasing trend, with shrinkage mainly concentrated in the Wuhan-Ezhou border, Tianmen, and southern Xiantao, while expansion displayed a decentralized point distribution. The PLUS model predicts that, in the scenario of rural built-up land expansion, a significant amount of cropland is encroached upon. This study provides a new perspective for understanding the impact of rural habitat changes on the carbon cycle. Future land management and planning should pay more attention to maintaining ecosystem services and considering the environmental effects of changes in rural built-up land layout.

The Second Life of Abandoned Orchards: Innovative Approaches to Land Use

As globalization accelerates, the issue of abandoned orchards has become increasingly prominent, posing a major challenge for land resource management. This paper reviews innovative approaches to the land use of abandoned orchards, aiming to explore the ecological services, economic benefits, and socio-cultural values in their transformation process. The article first analyzes the environmental impact of abandoned orchards, including soil quality degradation, water resource pollution, and biodiversity loss. Subsequently, it discusses innovative land use strategies such as smart agriculture, ecological restoration, and landscape design, and assesses the role of policy frameworks and planning in promoting sustainable land use. Through the analysis of successful domestic and international cases, the paper demonstrates the various possibilities of orchard transformation. Finally, the article summarizes the challenges and opportunities of land use transformation in abandoned orchards, providing sustainable solutions for future land management.

Future land use/land cover and its impacts on ecosystem services: case of Aydın, Turkey

AbstractThis paper aims to reveal the impacts of land use/land cover changes on ecosystem services and to guide sustainable development decisions by modelling the future land use/land cover pattern and its ecosystem services in the case of Aydın province, Turkey. In this context, the study examined land use/land cover changes in Aydın province, predicted future land use/land cover patterns with three scenarios (natural development, ecosystem service-based development, and economy-based development) using the PLUS model, and determined the impact of land use/land cover changes on InVEST generated carbon storage and habitat quality ecosystem services. The key drivers of land use/land cover change in Aydın were agricultural expansion, the transformation of different vegetation types into each other, and, even on a small scale, urbanization. The study revealed that changes in the spatial pattern of land use/land cover types, together with the effect of changing vegetation patterns, have a significant impact on carbon storage and habitat quality. While reductions in shrubland and forests were detrimental, transformations from openspaces to them, particularly at their boundaries, enhanced the capacity of carbon storage and habitat quality. On the other hand, even though the scenarios of ecosystem service-based development and economy-based development were based on the economic value of ecosystem services and the value of products/services obtained from different land use/land cover types, respectively, the ecosystem service-based development scenario was characterized by more effective land use/land cover management in terms of maximizing both the economic and ecological benefits. This highlights the significance and emerging need for prioritizing ecological considerations in urban planning.

Landslide dynamic susceptibility mapping in urban expansion area considering spatiotemporal land use and land cover change

Landslides pose a noteworthy threat in urban settlements globally, especially in areas experiencing extreme climate and rapid engineering. However, researches focusing on the long-term uninterrupted land use and land cover change (LULCC) impacted on landslide susceptibility mapping (LSM) in rapid urban expansion areas remains limited, let alone different temporal scenarios adjacency thresholds. This work aims to refine the temporal LSM considering spatiotemporal land use and land cover (LULC) and to provide decision makers with governing factors in landslides control during urbanization in mountainous areas. Herein, annual LULC data and landslide inventory spanning from 1992 to 2022 were utilized to map dynamic landslide susceptibility in Wanzhou District of the Three Gorges Reservoir Area, China. Initially, the landslide-related factors were filtered as input features of random forest (RF) model before diagnosis via multicollinearity test and Pearson Correlation Coefficient (PCC). The advanced patch-generating land use simulation (PLUS) model was then invited to fuel temporal susceptibility prediction powered by LULCC projections. Finally, the performance of various scenarios was evaluated using Receiver Characteristic Curve (ROC) curves and Shapley Additive exPlanation (SHAP) technique, with discussions on LULCC temporal adjacency thresholds and mutual feedback mechanism between territorial exploitation and landslide occurrences. The results indicate that the precision of LSM is positively correlated with the time horizon, acted by incorporating the latest LULC and LULCC achieving an area under the curve (AUC) of 0.920. The transition of land from forest to cropland and impervious areas should be avoided to minimize the increase in landslide susceptibility. Moreover, a one-year adjacency threshold of LULCC is recommended for optimal model accuracy in future LSM. This dynamic LSM framework can serve as a reference for decision makers in future landslide susceptibility mitigation and land resources utilization in rapid urban expansion areas worldwide.

Modeling Current and Future Potential Land Distribution Dynamics of Wheat, Rice, and Maize under Climate Change Scenarios Using MaxEnt

Modeling Current and Future Potential Land Distribution Dynamics of Wheat, Rice, and Maize under Climate Change Scenarios Using MaxEnt

Unveiling the dynamics of urbanization and ecosystem services: insights from the Su-Xi-Chang Region, China

Assessing the impact of past and future urban land expansion on ecosystem services (ESs) is essential for the sustainable management of urban landscapes. Despite recent progress, it remains challenging to determine the influence mechanism of different urbanization stages and areas on ESs and their trade-offs/synergies. Here, we analyzed the responses of four ESs and their trade-offs/synergies to the spatial and temporal differentiation of urbanization in the Su-Xi-Chang region of China from 1990 to 2050. The results showed that the relationship between ESs and urbanization followed a U-shaped curve from 1990 to 2050. Between 1990 and 2020, urbanization weakened trade-offs and enhanced lose-lose situations, exhibiting an S-shaped curve. From 2020 to 2050, lose-lose situations are expected to diminish, and the curve is projected to display a downward trend. Our findings suggest the implementation of compact urban development, sustainable agricultural practices, reforestation, and the conversion of farmland to lakes.

Broadening the horizon in land use change modelling: Normative scenarios for nature positive futures in Switzerland

Within scenario-based research of social-ecological systems, there has been a growing recognition of the importance of normative scenarios that define positive outcomes for both nature and society. While several frameworks exist to guide the co-creation of normative scenario narratives, examples of operationalizing these narratives in quantitative simulation modelling are still limited. To address this gap, this paper presents an example of how aspects of normative scenarios can be realized within a spatial model of land use and land cover change. This is achieved through a combination of data-driven approaches to encapsulate scenario-specific differences in local and global scale phenomena, as well as iterative expert elicitation to quantify descriptive trends from narratives. This approach is demonstrated with a case study simulating five scenarios of landscape change (three normative and two exploratory) in Switzerland between 2020 and 2060. The resulting maps of future land use and land cover exhibited distinct variations between the scenarios, notably with regard to the prevalence of areas of heterogeneous semi-natural land, such as alpine pastures and grassland, often considered culturally emblematic of Switzerland. While the simulation results were generally consistent with the outcomes expressed in the scenario narratives, following a process of expert feedback, we reflect that there are clear challenges in leveraging such results to elicit further discussions as to the desirability and plausibility of future scenarios. Specifically, the need to summarize spatial simulations in a manner that is easily interpretable and encourages consideration of the broader patterns of change rather than focusing on fine-scale details.

The Impact of Future Land Use Change on Carbon Emission and Its Optimization Strategy

Rapidly changing climate issues and increasingly severe carbon emissions are great challenges to the carbon peaking and carbon neutrality strategy. Analyzing the impact of future land use changes on carbon emissions can provide an important basis and reference for scientifically constructing a low-carbon and sustainable territorial spatial planning, as well as realizing the goal of the dual-carbon strategy. Based on land use data, agricultural production activity data, and energy consumption statistics, this study simulated the land use changes of the Yangtze River Delta region (YRDR) from 2030 to 2060 under the natural development (ND) scenario and sustainable development (SD) scenario by using the Patch-generating Land Use Simulation (PLUS) model and analyzed the impacts of future land use changes on carbon emissions. The results showed that: (1) The land use simulation results obtained by using the PLUS model under the sustainable development scenario were highly consistent with the actual land use with an OA value of 97.0%, a Kappa coefficient of 0.952, and a FoM coefficient of 0.403; (2) Based on the simulated land use under the SD scenario from 2030 to 2060, the quantity of construction land was effectively controlled, and the spatial distributions of cropland and forests were found to dominate in the north and south of the Yangtze River, respectively; (3) Anhui Province was the major contributor (accounted for 49.5%) to the net carbon absorption by cropland while Zhejiang Province was the major contributor (accounted for 63.3%) to the net carbon absorption by forest in the YRDR during the period 2020–2060 under the SD scenario; (4) Carbon emissions from construction land were the main source of carbon emissions from land use in the YRDR during the period 2020–2060 with proportions higher than 99% under both the ND and SD development scenarios. These findings underscore the urgent need for the government to take measures to balance the relationships between cropland and ecological protection and economic development, which provides a reference for the optimization of land use structure and policy formulation in the future.

Response and prediction of ecosystem service values to land use change resulting from underground coal mining in high groundwater table areas: A case study of Jining City, China

Ecosystem services are crucial for human survival and development. Changes in land use can lead to alterations in ecosystem service functions. However, the mechanism of how land use changes resulting from underground coal mining affect ecosystem service remains unclear, especially in areas with high groundwater levels. To address this issue, we studied the spatiotemporal in land use change in Jining City from 2000 to 2020 and employed Markov-PIM (probability integration method)-PLUS (Patch-generate Land Use Simulation) model to simulate land use change and ecosystem service values (ESV) in Jining City by 2030 under four different scenarios. The results indicate that from 2000 to 2020, the area of ecological space increased by 169.99 km2, and the area of living space expanded by 775.28 km2, while the area of production space decreased by 945.27 km2, conversely. These changes led to a 3 million yuan increase in total ESV. From 2020 to 2030, there was a marked decline in ESV under both natural development (ND) and living space preference (LSP) scenarios, with decreases of 0.59 billion yuan and 1.38 billion yuan, respectively. In contrast, in production space preference (PSP) and ecological space preference (ESP) scenarios, ESV increase by 0.22 billion yuan and 0.34 billion yuan. The ESP scenario is an effective strategy to strengthen environmental protection, significantly improve the ESV level of Jining City and meet the development goals of Jining City. Finally, the study concludes with recommendations like comprehensive management, industrial upgrading, and collaborative development for optimizing Jining City's future land use and enhance ESV for urban development.

Nonbreeding distributions of four declining Nearctic–Neotropical migrants are predicted to contract under future climate and socioeconomic scenarios

ABSTRACT Climate and land use/land cover change are expected to influence the stationary nonbreeding distributions of 4 Nearctic–Neotropical migrant bird species experiencing population declines: Cardellina canadensis (Canada Warbler), Setophaga cerulea (Cerulean Warbler), Vermivora chrysoptera (Golden-winged Warbler), and Hylocichla mustelina (Wood Thrush). Understanding how and where these species’ distributions shift in response to environmental drivers is critical to inform conservation planning in the Neotropics. For each species, we quantified current (2012 to 2021) and projected future (2050) suitable climatic and land use/land cover conditions as components of stationary nonbreeding distributions. Multi-source occurrence data were used in an ensemble modeling approach with covariates from 3 global coupled climate models (CMCC-ESM2, FIO-ESM-2-0, MIROC-ES2L) and 2 shared socioeconomic pathways (SSP2-RCP4.5, SSP5-RCP8.5) to predict distributions in response to varying climatic and land use/land cover conditions. Our findings suggest that distribution contraction, upslope elevational shifts in suitable conditions, and limited shifts in latitude and longitude will occur in 3 of 4 species. Cardellina canadensis and S. cerulea are expected to experience a moderate distribution contraction (7% to 29% and 19% to 43%, respectively), primarily in response to expected temperature changes. The V. chrysoptera distribution was modeled by sex, and females and males were projected to experience a major distribution contraction (56% to 79% loss in suitable conditions for females, 46% to 65% for males), accompanied by shifts in peak densities to higher elevations with minimal changes in the upper elevation limit. Expected changes in precipitation had the greatest effect on V. chrysoptera. Hylocichla mustelina experienced the smallest distribution change, consistent with the species’ flexibility in habitat selection and broader elevational range. We recommend defining priority areas for conservation as those where suitable conditions are expected to remain or arise in the next 25 years. For V. chrysoptera in particular, it is urgent to ensure that mid-elevation forests in Costa Rica and Honduras are adequately managed and protected.

Identifying and Optimizing the Ecological Security Pattern of the Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei Urban Agglomeration from 2000 to 2030

The conflict between economic development and ecological protection continues to intensify, highlighting the necessity for constructing regional ecological security patterns (ESPs) to reconcile the relationship between development and protection effectively. This study used the GMOP and PLUS model to simulate future land use changes by 2030 under the following three scenarios: natural development (ND), ecological protection (EP), and economic development (ED). Employing the MSPA model and circuit theory, it identified ecological source areas and constructed the ESP for the Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei urban agglomeration (BTH) from 2000 to 2030. The results indicate that the proportion of ecological source areas increased from 22.24% in 2000 to 23.09% in 2020, the EP scenario showing the highest proportion of ecological source areas compared with the other two scenarios. These areas are densely distributed in the northern and western mountainous regions, with sparse distributions in the southern plains. The number of ecological corridors grew from 603 in 2000 to 616 in 2020, with the EP scenario having more corridors than the other two scenarios. From 2000 to 2030, corridors in the northern and western mountainous areas were denser, shorter, and more variable, while those in the southern plains were less dense, longer, and relatively stable. Over two decades, habitat areas for species in BTH increased, while landscape connectivity decreased. Compared with 2020 and the other two scenarios, the EP scenario saw an increase in habitat areas and improved landscape connectivity. The impact on ecological corridors and improvement areas primarily arose from a combination of socio-ecological drivers (e.g., elevation, slope, population), while the influence on restoration and key areas mainly stemmed from ecological factors (e.g., elevation, temperature, NDVI, precipitation). The findings demonstrate that distinguishing different geomorphological units to improve and restore the regional environment, while considering socio-ecological drivers, is crucial for restoring the overall ESP and landscape connectivity of BTH.

Disseminating land use land cover change scenarios for improving the role of blue and green infrastructure: Evaluation and perspectives

Land use land cover (LUCC) scenarios are often co-produced by researchers and a reduced group of local actors. While most scenarios’ evaluations analyse feedback from actors involved in the scenarios making, restricting the diffusion of scientific results to the co-construction group can limit their potential to support land management. In this study, we investigate if disseminating LUCC scenarios to a broad and heterogeneous audience is effective in overcoming socio-cultural and knowledge-related barriers to blue and green infrastructure (BGINs). We presented LUCC scenarios that study the impact of different blue and green infrastructure strategies on water resources and biodiversity. In 12 workshops, we collected feedback from 147 local actors, including representatives, water management technicians, farmers and students. Findings indicate that despite the original aim of the scenarios being to support the integration of BGINs in land management, the primary benefits were a deeper understanding of future land management challenges and cause-effect relationships between different landscape elements and socioeconomic drivers of change. In addition, we observed that respondents’ professional activity significantly influences the evaluation. We conclude that, while scenarios can be an effective tool in overcoming some of the barriers of BGINs, the outcomes of scenarios can be maximised by making the expected outcomes (including conceptual ones) explicit and by acknowledging local actors’ roles in land management during the dissemination.

Predicting Land Use Changes under Shared Socioeconomic Pathway–Representative Concentration Pathway Scenarios to Support Sustainable Planning in High-Density Urban Areas: A Case Study of Hangzhou, Southeastern China

Amidst the challenges posed by global climate change and accelerated urbanization, the structure and distribution of land use are shifting dramatically, exacerbating ecological and land-use conflicts, particularly in China. Effective land resource management requires accurate forecasts of land use and cover change (LUCC). However, the future trajectory of LUCC, influenced by climate change and urbanization, remains uncertain. This study developed an integrated multi-scenario framework by combining system dynamics and patch-generating land use simulation models to predict future LUCC in high-density urban regions under various Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP)–Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios. The results showed the following: (1) From 2020 to 2050, cultivated land, unused land, and water are projected to decrease, while construction land is expected to increase. (2) Future land use patterns exhibit significant spatial heterogeneity across three scenarios. Construction land will expand in all districts of Hangzhou, particularly in the main urban areas. Under the SSP585 scenario, the expansion of construction land is most significant, while it is the least under the SSP126 scenario. (3) Distinct factors drive the expansion of different land use types. The digital elevation model is the predominant factor for the expansion of forest and grassland, contributing 19.25% and 30.76%, respectively. Night light contributes the most to cultivated land and construction land, at 13.94% and 20.35%, respectively. (4) The average land use intensity (LUI) in central urban districts markedly surpasses that in the surrounding suburban areas, with Xiacheng having the highest LUI and Chun’an the lowest. Under the SSP126 scenario, the area with increased LUI is significantly smaller than under the SSP245 and SSP585 scenarios. These findings offer valuable guidance for sustainable planning and built environment management in Hangzhou and similarly situated urban centers worldwide.

Integrated use of the CA–Markov model and the Trends.Earth module to enhance the assessment of land cover degradation

This study aims to demonstrate the potential of assessing future land cover degradation status by combining the forecasting capabilities of the Cellular-Automata and Markov chain (CA-Markov) models in Idris Selva with the land cover degradation (LCD) model in the Trends.Earth module. The study focuses on the upper Zambezi Basin (UZB) in southern Africa, which is one of the regions with high rates of land degradation globally. Landsat satellite imagery is utilised to generate historical (1993–2023) land cover and land use (LCLU) maps for the UZB, while the global European Space Agency Climate Change Initiative (ESA CCI) LCLU maps are obtained from the Trends.Earth module. The CA-Markov chain model is employed to predict future LCLU changes between 2023 and 2043. The LCD model in the Trends.Earth module in QGIS 3.32.3 is then used to assess the historical and forecasted land cover degradation status. The findings reveal that land cover degradation maps produced from local LCLU classifications provide more detailed information compared to those produced from the global ESA CCI LCLU product. Between 2023 and 2043, the UZB is predicted to experience a net reduction of approximately 3.2 million hectares of forest cover, with an average annual reduction rate of − 0.13%. In terms of land cover degradation, the UZB is forecasted to remain generally stable, with 87% and 96% of the total land cover area expected to be stable during the periods 2023–2033 and 2033–2043, respectively, relative to the base years 2023 and 2033. Reduction in forest cover due to the expansion of grassland, human settlements, and cropland is projected to drive land cover degradation, while improvements in forest cover are anticipated through the conversion of grassland and cropland into forested areas. It appears that using locally produced LCLU with high-resolution images provides better assessments of land degradation in the Trends.Earth module than using global LCLU products. By leveraging the opportunities offered by models with capacity to predict LCLU such as the CA–Markov model and the capabilities of the LCD model, as evidenced in this study, valuable forecasted information can be effectively obtained for monitoring land cover degradation. This information can then be used to implement targeted interventions that align with the objective of realising the United Nations' land degradation neutral world target by 2030.

Construction of Ecological Security Patterns and Evaluation of Ecological Network Stability under Multi-Scenario Simulation: A Case Study in Desert–Oasis Area of the Yellow River Basin, China

Land use change has a significant impact on the sustainability of ecosystems, and ecological security patterns (ESPs) can improve environmental quality through spatial planning. This study explored a multi-scenario ESP framework by integrating future land use simulation (FLUS) and minimum cumulative resistance (MCR) for urban agglomeration along the Yellow River Basin (YRB) in Ningxia. The research involved simulating land use change in 2035 under four development scenarios, identifying ecological security networks, and evaluating network stability for each scenario. The study revealed that the ecological sources under different development scenarios, including a natural development scenario (NDS), an economic development scenario (EDS), a food security scenario (FSS), and an ecological protection scenario (EPS), were 834.82 km2, 715.46 km2, 785.56 km2, and 1091.43 km2, respectively. The overall connectivity values (OG) for these scenarios were 0.351, 0.466, 0.334, and 0.520, respectively. It was found that under an EPS, the ESPs had the largest area of ecological sources and the most stable ecological network structure, which can effectively protect natural habitats. This study provides a valuable method for identifying ESPs that can respond to diversity and the uncertainty of future development. It can assist decision-makers in enhancing the ecological quality of the study area while considering various development scenarios.