Future Impacts Research Articles

O-217 Balancing ‘the desires of individuals’ against ‘the situation of the world as a whole’: (Re)considering planetary responsibilities in the context of assisted reproduction

Abstract Study question How do the moral reasons for offering access to assisted reproductive technology (ART) relate to ethical responsibilities generated by sustainability and planetary health duties? Summary answer If one accepts that both governments and medical professionals should yield to environmental sustainability, it is ethically pertinent to balance this against respecting reproductive autonomy. What is known already Respecting autonomy is a central ethical value in the context of reproduction, which, in the context of ART, is considered to generate a prima facie obligation to help people conceive a child in line with their personal goals. Arguments in terms of population ethics, use of planetary resources and climate change are traditionally not considered to counter arguments for access to ART relying on the reproductive autonomy of individuals. This may come under tension due to adjusted encouragements to physicians for being committed to sustainability as part of professional role responsibilities. Study design, size, duration A literature study of academic literature and institutional codes of conduct was performed to inventory how professional duties of physicians are being directed to encompass not only responsibilities towards individual patients, but also towards environmental sustainability. Consideration of earlier documents has shown that, sporadic objections notwithstanding, such arguments have mostly been morally inconsequential in the regulation and praxis of ART. This was critically evaluated against the backdrop of bioethical literature and ethical principles. Participants/materials, setting, methods Literature study; conceptual analysis; normative analysis. Main results and the role of chance Climate change and its future impact is on the political agenda as a shared responsibility of governments, industry, and citizens. This is seeping through into communiqués of professional medical bodies and codes of conduct. In the particular context of ART, this has recently led to several calls to recognize the impact of climate change on fertility. This has not (yet) led to an institutionalization of the more provocative claim, sometimes voiced in popular media, that fighting climate change may require restraints in the area of procreation. Nonetheless, claims that physicians have a responsibility to contribute to a sustainable healthcare sector at least require ethical attention in this regard, especially in view of observed shifts compared to canonic positions. Likewise, if we expect governments to take efforts to attain sustainability goals, this may evoke moral questions about possible tensions with moral commitments to offering access to assisted procreation. This contribution addresses (i) the limited critical stance towards beliefs that procreation is problematic from a planetary health perspective, and (ii) the need to scrutinize the ethical balance for reproductive health professionals between accommodating (individual) procreative goals and more global responsibilities towards the world at large. Limitations, reasons for caution This is an agenda-setting analysis, and so it is not meant to serve as an exhaustive discussion of these moral concerns. While attention for future impacts of climate change is gaining momentum in healthcare, controversial suggestions to cap procreation is largely still limited to lay contexts. Wider implications of the findings This analysis is meant to propel ethical reflection about the balance between global elements that may restrain individuals’ reproductive options. This puts into focus that moral considerations about individual and societal (and planetary) interests in the context of ART require continued specification and careful ethical deliberation. Trial registration number n/a

Adaptation Strategies Strongly Reduce the Future Impacts of Climate Change on Simulated Crop Yields

AbstractSimulations of crop yield due to climate change vary widely between models, locations, species, management strategies, and Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs). To understand how climate and adaptation affects yield change, we developed a meta‐model based on 8703 site‐level process‐model simulations of yield with different future adaptation strategies and climate scenarios for maize, rice, wheat and soybean. We tested 10 statistical models, including some machine learning models, to predict the percentage change in projected future yield relative to the baseline period (2000–2010) as a function of explanatory variables related to adaptation strategy and climate change. We used the best model to produce global maps of yield change for the RCP4.5 scenario and identify the most influential variables affecting yield change using Shapley additive explanations. For most locations, adaptation was the most influential factor determining the projected yield change for maize, rice and wheat. Without adaptation under RCP4.5, all crops are expected to experience average global yield losses of 6%–21%. Adaptation alleviates this average projected loss by 1–13 percentage points. Maize was most responsive to adaptive practices with a projected mean yield loss of −21% [range across locations: −63%, +3.7%] without adaptation and −7.5% [range: −46%, +13%] with adaptation. For maize and rice, irrigation method and cultivar choice were the adaptation types predicted to most prevent large yield losses, respectively. When adaptation practices are applied, some areas are predicted to experience yield gains, especially at northern high latitudes. These results reveal the critical importance of implementing adequate adaptation strategies to mitigate the impact of climate change on crop yields.

Future Ozone Levels Responses to Changes in Meteorological Conditions under RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 Scenarios over São Paulo, Brazil

Since the implementation of emission control policies in 1983, the Metropolitan Area of São Paulo (MASP) has experienced a significant decrease in the annual mean concentration of air pollutants, except for ozone, which has remained relatively stable. This work analyzes the future impact on surface ozone formation in the MASP caused by changes in atmospheric conditions. The authors performed air quality simulations using the weather research and forecasting with chemistry (WRF-Chem) model under two representative concentration pathway (RCP) atmospheric conditions. A base case simulation from September and October 2018 was compared to scenarios for the same months in 2030, using the same anthropogenic emissions. Results show an average increase in peak ozone concentrations (0.43% for RCP 4.5 and 5.92% for RCP 8.5) with variations depending on the month and location. However, under the RCP 4.5 scenario, peak ozone concentrations in October were higher in urban areas than under the RCP 8.5. These outcomes can assist decision-makers in understanding the potential future impacts of high ozone formation, which has historically occurred in September and October in São Paulo by considering the effects of changing meteorological conditions, such as increased temperatures, higher surface radiation, and reduced cloudiness.

Groundwater Nitrate Pollution Due to Excessive Use of N-Fertilizers in Rural Areas of Bangladesh: Pollution Status, Health Risk, Source Contribution, and Future Impacts

Groundwater Nitrate Pollution Due to Excessive Use of N-Fertilizers in Rural Areas of Bangladesh: Pollution Status, Health Risk, Source Contribution, and Future Impacts

Sea Level Variability in the Equatorial Malacca Strait: The Influence of Climatic–Oceanographic Factors and Its Implications for Tidal Properties in the Estuarine Zone

The sea level trend in the equatorial Malacca Strait is a significant issue that needs to be reviewed since it is an area of interest. Assessing its future impact on estuarine tidal characteristics is worth studying because it relates to the potency of coastal damages. This study aimed to discuss the relationship between sea level variations and anomalies and their possible triggering factors and to estimate the future impacts on the tidal properties in the estuarine zone. Tide gauge and altimetry data in the Tanjong Pagar site were used to assess the sea level trends over 27 years of observation (from 1992 to 2019). Both altimetry and tide gauge data showed an upward trend, with 0.24 cm/year and 0.39 cm/year, respectively. Due to the near-equatorial area of interest, sea level variability is more synchronized with ENSO rather than IOD. At some points, ENSO shapes the sea level fluctuation, with an R2 of less than 10%. For specific periods, the coupling effects between MJO and La Niña may trigger higher evaporation in the maritime continent, triggering increasing sea levels. Of particular concern, among the other assessed factors, the zonal currents and winds (wind-driven currents) are strongly correlated with sea level variations, primarily during the NE monsoon and the second transitional periods, with a determination coefficient of about 18–36%. As a result of sea level rises, it is estimated that tidal constituent amplitudes will increase by about 8.9% and 18.3% in 2050 and 2100, respectively. The increase in tidal range will possibly relate to the tidal bore passage in the Kampar estuary. Therefore, more advanced hydrodynamic modeling is necessary to determine the impact of sea level rises on tidal bore generation.

Future Atmospheric Rivers and Impacts on Precipitation: Overview of the ARTMIP Tier 2 High‐Resolution Global Warming Experiment

AbstractAtmospheric rivers (ARs) are long, narrow synoptic scale weather features important for Earth’s hydrological cycle typically transporting water vapor poleward, delivering precipitation important for local climates. Understanding ARs in a warming climate is problematic because the AR response to climate change is tied to how the feature is defined. The Atmospheric River Tracking Method Intercomparison Project (ARTMIP) provides insights into this problem by comparing 16 atmospheric river detection tools (ARDTs) to a common data set consisting of high resolution climate change simulations from a global atmospheric general circulation model. ARDTs mostly show increases in frequency and intensity, but the scale of the response is largely dependent on algorithmic criteria. Across ARDTs, bulk characteristics suggest intensity and spatial footprint are inversely correlated, and most focus regions experience increases in precipitation volume coming from extreme ARs. The spread of the AR precipitation response under climate change is large and dependent on ARDT selection.

Assessing Future Climate Change Impacts on Potato Yields — A Case Study for Prince Edward Island, Canada

Crop yields are adversely affected by climate change; therefore, it is crucial to develop climate adaptation strategies to mitigate the impacts of increasing climate variability on the agriculture system to ensure food security. As one of the largest potato-producing provinces in Canada, Prince Edward Island (PEI) has recently experienced significant instability in potato production. PEI's local farmers and stakeholders are extremely concerned about the prospects for the future of potato farming industries in the context of climate change. This study aims to use the Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer (DSSAT) potato model to simulate future potato yields under the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) climate scenarios (including SSP1-1.9, SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0, and SSP5-8.5). The study evaluates the combined effects of changing climatic conditions at local scales (i.e., warming temperature and changing precipitation patterns) and increasing carbon dioxide (CO2) concentration in the atmosphere. The results indicate future significant declines in potato yield in PEI under the current farming practices. In particular, under the high-emission scenarios (e.g., SSP3-7.0 and SSP5-8.5), the potato yield in PEI would decline by 48% and 60% in the 2070s and by 63% and 80% by 2090s; even under the low-emission scenarios (i.e., SSP1-1.9 and SSP1-2.6), the potato yield in PEI would still decline by 6-10%. This implies that it is important to develop effective climate adaptation measures (e.g., adjusting farming practices and introducing supplemental irrigation plans) to ensure the long-term sustainability of potato production in PEI.

Past Analogues of Deoxygenation Events in the Mediterranean Sea: A Tool to Constrain Future Impacts

Human-induced carbon emissions are altering the modern climate, with severe repercussions on ecosystems. Among others, anthropogenic pressure is causing deoxygenation of the bottom water, with the widespread establishment of hypoxic zones in several Mediterranean areas. The geological archives allow investigating past deoxygenation dynamics (sapropel events) and their impact on marine ecosystems. Here, we compare the causes and the evolution of deoxygenation dynamics which occurred during two different time periods (Messinian and Holocene) in different paleoceanographic settings based on their micropaleontological content. The Messinian sapropel events are the result of increased export productivity during a relatively cold and arid context, triggering bottom anoxic conditions. The Holocene sapropel formed in response to weakening/stopping of the thermohaline circulation due to increasing temperature and freshwater input. Our results suggest that the deoxygenation dynamics in the Mediterranean in the near future will not follow the trend characteristic of the Holocene deep-sea sapropel because of the predicted drying trend. Differently, the paleoceanographic setting triggering the Messinian shallow-sea sapropels is comparable with the modern situation in different Mediterranean areas, where human-induced eutrophication is promoting deoxygenation. Based on these results, we suggest that the patchy deoxygenation trend in the Mediterranean Sea caused by climate warming may lead to a drastic change in the ecosystem services which would likely impact human activities.

Possible Future Climate Change Impacts on the Meteorological and Hydrological Drought Characteristics in the Jinghe River Basin, China

Revealing the impact of future climate change on the characteristics and evolutionary patterns of meteorological and hydrological droughts and exploring the joint distribution characteristics of their drought characteristics are essential for drought early warning in the basin. In this study, we considered the Jinghe River Basin in the Loess Plateau as the research object. The standardized precipitation index (SPI) and standardized runoff index (SRI) series were used to represent meteorological drought and hydrological drought with monthly runoff generated by the SWAT model. In addition, the evolution laws of the JRB in the future based on Copula functions are discussed. The results showed that: (1) the meteorological drought and hydrological drought of the JRB displayed complex periodic change trends of drought and flood succession, and the evolution laws of meteorological drought and hydrological drought under different spatiotemporal scales and different scenario differ significantly. (2) In terms of the spatial range, the JRB meteorological and hydrological drought duration and severity gradually increased along with the increase in the time scale. (3) Based on the joint distribution model of the Copula function, the future meteorological drought situation in the JRB will be alleviated when compared with the historical period on the seasonal scale, but the hydrological drought situation is more serious. The findings can help policy-makers explore the correlation between meteorological drought and hydrological drought in the background of future climate change, as well as the early warning of hydrological drought.

A history of the 1.5°C target

AbstractThe 1.5°C target is now widely considered as the maximum acceptable limit for global warming. However, it is at once recent and, as it appears increasingly unreachable, already almost obsolete. Adopted as an aspirational target in the Paris Agreement in 2015, the 1.5°C objective originated with a political impetus within UNFCCC negotiations. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) endorsed this policy‐driven target when it produced the Special Report on 1.5°C. This article highlights the continuity of the history of the 1.5°C target with that of the 2°C target, but also the differences between the two. Because the 1.5°C target considerably raises the bar on mitigation efforts, it exacerbates political tensions and ambiguities that were already latent in the 2°C target. This article retraces the emergence of the 1.5°C in diplomatic negotiations, the preparation of the IPCC Special report on 1.5°C, and the new kinds of debates they provoked among climate scientists and experts. To explain how an unreachable target became the reference for climate action, we analyze the “political calibration” of climate science and politics, which can also be described as a codependency between climate science and politics.This article is categorized under: Integrated Assessment of Climate Change > Integrated Assessment Modeling Climate, History, Society, Culture > World Historical Perspectives Assessing Impacts of Climate Change > Evaluating Future Impacts of Climate Change

Antarctica's vegetation in a changing climate

AbstractAntarctica plays a central role in regulating global climatic and oceanographic patterns and is an integral part of global climate change discussions. The functioning of Antarctica's terrestrial ecosystems is dominated by poikilohydric cryptogams such as lichens, bryophytes, eukaryotic algae, and cyanobacteria and there are only two native species of vascular plants. Antarctica's vegetation is highly adapted to the region's extreme conditions but, at the same time, it is potentially highly susceptible to climatic fluctuations. Biological responses to shifts in temperature, water availability, wind patterns, snow, and ice cover are complex, taxa‐specific and act on different temporal and spatial scales. In maritime Antarctica, where warming and mass loss of outlet glaciers have been mainly observed, the vegetation is expected to show increases in productivity, abundance, and cover. In continental Antarctica, observational and experimental evidence is still sparse, but it is pointing toward even drier and harsher conditions for survival. We need more information on what the observed and predicted changes in Antarctic vegetation are for different regions and ecosystems. This will inform us how environmental change and human impact will shape the future of these ecosystems, and whether the speed and magnitude of change have habitat‐specific effects and implications. Antarctica's unique ecosystems are changing and in this review, we describe the current situation, tools to measure, and evaluate change and how change is likely to look in the future.This article is categorized under: Climate, Ecology, and Conservation > Observed Ecological Changes Assessing Impacts of Climate Change > Evaluating Future Impacts of Climate Change Climate, Ecology, and Conservation > Modeling Species and Community Interactions Assessing Impacts of Climate Change > Observed Impacts of Climate Change

Analysis of Quadratic Correlation between Dryness Indices and Wine Grape Yield to Estimate Future Climate Impacts in Hungary

In many regions, water availability influences grape yield fluctuations more than thermal conditions. This study analyzes dryness indices calculated from observed and simulated RCM data to establish statistical relationships with observed yield data, considered an indicator of food safety. Five dryness indices were analyzed: the number of days without rain, the maximum number of consecutive dry days, climatic water balance, dryness index, and vineyard water indicator. These indices were analyzed for three periods: 1986–2005 (recent past), 2016–2035 (near future) and 2081–2100 (distant future). After this analysis, quadratic regression connections were established between the indices and available wine grape yields in the 22 wine regions of Hungary for 2005–2021 without information on grape varieties and for 2017–2021 with data on grape varieties. Linear agro-technological trends were extracted from these wine grape yield series, whereas the residuals exhibited significant quadratic regression in slightly over 50% of the indices and regions, according to the F-test for the 17 year series. For the short series, these proportions are 29 and 27% for the selected seven white and seven red wine grapes. According to the most significant quadratic regressions, combined with the projected dryness indices, we can expect less average yields with higher interannual variability in the future.

Projecting Future Climate Change-Mediated Impacts in Three Paralytic Shellfish Toxins-Producing Dinoflagellate Species.

Simple SummaryHarmful algal blooms present a particular risk for marine ecosystems and human health alike. In this sense, it is important to accurately predict how toxin-producing microalgae could be affected by future climate change. The present study applied species distribution models (SDMs) to project the potential changes in the habitat suitability and distribution of three key paralytic shellfish toxin (PST)-producing dinoflagellate species (i.e., Alexandrium catenella, A. minutum, and Gymnodinium catenatum), up to 2040/50 and 2090/2100, across four different greenhouse gas emission scenarios, and using four abiotic predictors (i.e., sea surface temperature, salinity, current velocity, and bathymetry). In general, considerable contractions were observed for all three species in the lower latitudes of their distribution, together with projected expansions into higher latitudes, particularly in the Northern Hemisphere. This study aims to entice further research on the future biogeographical impacts of climate change in toxin-producing microalgae species while, at the same time, helping to advise the correct environmental management of coastal habitats and ecosystems. Toxin-producing microalgae present a significant environmental risk for ecosystems and human societies when they reach concentrations that affect other aquatic organisms or human health. Harmful algal blooms (HAB) have been linked to mass wildlife die-offs and human food poisoning episodes, and climate change has the potential to alter the frequency, magnitude, and geographical extent of such events. Thus, a framework of species distribution models (SDMs), employing MaxEnt modeling, was used to project changes in habitat suitability and distribution of three key paralytic shellfish toxin (PST)-producing dinoflagellate species (i.e., Alexandrium catenella, A. minutum, and Gymnodinium catenatum), up to 2050 and 2100, across four representative concentration pathway scenarios (RCP-2.6, 4.5, 6.0, and 8.5; CMIP5). Despite slightly different responses at the regional level, the global habitat suitability has decreased for all the species, leading to an overall contraction in their tropical and sub-tropical ranges, while considerable expansions are projected in higher latitudes, particularly in the Northern Hemisphere, suggesting poleward distributional shifts. Such trends were exacerbated with increasing RCP severity. Yet, further research is required, with a greater assemblage of environmental predictors and improved occurrence datasets, to gain a more holistic understanding of the potential impacts of climate change on PST-producing species.

Metrics as tools for bridging climate science and applications

AbstractIn climate science and applications, the term “metric” is used to describe the distillation of complex, multifaceted evaluations to summarize the overall quality of a model simulation, or other data product, and/or as a means to quantify some response to climate change. Metrics provide insights into the fidelity of processes and outcomes from climate models and can assist with both differentiating models' representation of variables or processes and informing whether models are “fit for purpose.” Metrics can also provide a valuable reference point for co‐production of knowledge between climate scientists and climate impact practitioners. Although continued metric developments enable model developers to better understand the impacts of decisions made in the model design process, metrics also have implications for the characterization of uncertainty and facilitating analyses of underlying physical processes. As a result, comprehensive evaluation with multiple metrics enhances usability of climate information by both scientific and stakeholder communities. This paper presents examples of insights gained from the development and appropriate use of metrics, and provides examples of how metrics can be used to engage with stakeholders and inform decision‐making.This article is categorized under: Climate Models and Modeling > Knowledge Generation with Models The Social Status of Climate Change Knowledge > Climate Science and Decision Making Assessing Impacts of Climate Change > Evaluating Future Impacts of Climate Change

The Future Impacts of ESL Events in Euro-Mediterranean Coastal Cities: The Coast-RiskBySea Model to Assess the Potential Economic Damages in Naples, Marseille and Barcelona

In coastal cities, the effects of climate change will cause an increase in the intensity and frequency of extreme sea level (ESL). In this scenario, the application of the Coast-RiskBySea model is proposed to assess the economic impacts of ESL on the built environment in three Euro-Mediterranean coastal cities: Naples, Barcelona, and Marseille. The risk (land use-based) is assessed in the GIS environment as a function of the potential direct and tangible economic damages. The results highlight risk scenarios in all three cities with significant economic damages expected, requiring the implementation of climate mitigation and adaptation measures to reduce the current impacts and limit future ones. The simulations highlight the potential of both remote sensing data and GIS systems to carry out homogeneous environmental analyses over wide areas. The results that were obtained are compared with existing works to verify the reliability of the Coast-RiskBySea model.

Future Thermodynamic Impacts of Global Warming on Landfalling Typhoons and Their Induced Storm Surges to the Pearl River Delta Region as Inferred from High-Resolution Regional Models

Abstract Possible thermodynamic effects of global warming on the landfalling typhoons that affect South China and their associated storm surges over Pearl River Delta region are investigated, using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model and the Sea, Lake, and Overland Surges from Hurricanes (SLOSH) model based on the pseudo–global warming (PGW) technique. Twenty intense historical TCs that brought extreme storm surges to Hong Kong since the 1960s are selected and replicated by the 3-km WRF Model, with the outputs to drive the SLOSH model in storm surge simulation. The tracks, intensities, storm structure, and induced storm surges are well simulated. The PGW technique is then used to build a warmer background climate for the 20 selected TCs in the period of 2075–99 under the RCP8.5 scenario. To obtain a better adjusted warming environment, a pre-PGW adjustment method is developed. Comparing the same TCs in PGW experiments and historical runs, the TC lifetime peak (landfall) intensity can be intensified by about 9% ± 8% (12% ± 13%), with a ∼3% increase of TC peak intensity per degree of SST warming being inferred. The TCs are projected to be more compact, with the radius of maximum wind (RMW) reduced by ∼7% ± 10%. TC precipitation is also expected to increase, with the extreme precipitation within the eyewall strengthened by 22% ± 12%. All the above characters have passed the Student’s t test at 0.05 significance level. Finally, the projected induced storm surges near the Hong Kong waters are not significantly tested, although a weak storm surge height increase tendency is revealed.

Present and Future Impacts of Computer-Aided Design/ Computer-Aided Manufacturing (CAD/CAM)

The world is a growing place with great technological advancement in all areas of life. For some decades now, various disciplines and industries have been engaged in using Computer-Aided Design/Computer-Aided Manufacturing (CAD/CAM) across different nations. CAD/CAM utilizes computers to integrate design and manufacturing processes for quality product attainment. This review article examined the present impacts of CAD/CAM on some sectors such as architecture, manufacturing, engineering and design, electronics, automobile, shipbuilding, aerospace, and medicine. Highlights on some applications and future impacts of CAD/CAM have also been discussed. The numerous impacts of CAD/CAM are discussed in the study. It was concluded that CAD/CAM had become integral parts of our world to ease production against traditional methods. The study recommended more research focus on biomaterials for 3-D bioprinting for tissue engineering applications.

Assessment of Future Climate Change Impacts on Water Resources of Khabour River Catchment, North Of Iraq

In arid and semi-arid areas, assessing the potential impact of climate change on water availability is of critical importance for achieving better management of future water resources. Iraq as one example of those areas is expected to experience more stress on water due to the climatological characteristics and to the rapid population growth in addition to the policy of the riparian upstream countries. Therefore, the present study aims to quantify the impacts of climate change on the Khabour River catchment north of Iraq, which is one of the riparian catchments between Iraq and Turkey. The HEC-HMS model was firstly calibrated and validated against daily streamflow data measured for the period 01Jan2004-30Jun2009 near the catchment outlet at Zakho station. Thereafter, the future climate changes data from the HadGEM2_ES model was fed into the calibrated HEC-HMS model to quantify the future water resources availability. The impacts of climate change on the water under four possible scenarios of RCPs (RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP6, and RCP8.5) of atmospheric greenhouse gas (GHG) concentrations for three future slice periods (2021-2030), (2041-2050), and (2061-2070); was assessed in attribution to that from the period (2000-2009). Results show that the implemented HEC-HMS model was superior in modeling the streamflow data. NSE, R² and RMSE value was 0.871, 0.89 and 26.7, respectively, for calibration and 0.936, 0.9364 and 18.0, respectively for validation. The results also suggest that annual river runoff will likely decrease under all scenarios of RCPs and time stages of the future period.

Modeling the Impact of Future Climate Change Impacts on Rainfed Durum Wheat Production in Algeria

The predicted climate change threatens food security in the coming years in Algeria. So, this study aims to assess the impact of future climate change on a key crop in Algeria which is rainfed durum wheat. We investigate the impact of climate change on rainfed durum wheat cultivar called Mexicali using AquaCrop crop model and the EURO-CORDEX climate projections downscaled with the ICHEC_KNMI model under RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5. A delta method was applied to correct the incertitudes present in the raw climate projections of two experimental sites located in Sétif and Bordj Bou Arreridj (BBA)’s Eastern High plains of Algeria (EHPs). AquaCrop was validated with a good precision (RMSE = 0.41 tha−1) to simulate Mexicali cultivar yields. In 2035–2064, it is expected at both sites: an average wheat grain yield enhances of +49% and +105% under RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5, respectively, compared to the average yield of the baseline period (1981–2010), estimated at 29 qha−1. In both sites, in 2035–2064, under RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5, the CO2 concentrations elevation has a fertilizing effect on rainfed wheat yield. This effect compensates for the negative impacts induced by the temperatures increase and decline in precipitation and net solar radiation. An increase in wheat water productivity is predicted under both RCPs scenarios. That is due to the water loss drop induced by the shortening of the wheat-growing cycle length by the effect of temperatures increase. In 2035–2064, early sowing in mid-September and October will lead to wheat yields improvement, as it will allow the wheat plant to benefit from the precipitations increase through the fall season. Thus, this early sowing will ensure a well vegetative development and will allow the wheat’s flowering and grain filling before the spring warming period.

On the evaluation of climate change impact models

AbstractIn‐depth understanding of the potential implications of climate change is required to guide decision‐ and policy‐makers when developing adaptation strategies and designing infrastructure suitable for future conditions. Impact models that translate potential future climate conditions into variables of interest are needed to create the causal connection between a changing climate and its impact for different sectors. Recent surveys suggest that the primary strategy for validating such models (and hence for justifying their use) heavily relies on assessing the accuracy of model simulations by comparing them against historical observations. We argue that such a comparison is necessary and valuable, but not sufficient to achieve a comprehensive evaluation of climate change impact models. We believe that a complementary, largely observation‐independent, step of model evaluation is needed to ensure more transparency of model behavior and greater robustness of scenario‐based analyses. This step should address the following four questions: (1) Do modeled dominant process controls match our system perception? (2) Is my model's sensitivity to changing forcing as expected? (3) Do modeled decision levers show adequate influence? (4) Can we attribute uncertainty sources throughout the projection horizon? We believe that global sensitivity analysis, with its ability to investigate a model's response to joint variations of multiple inputs in a structured way, offers a coherent approach to address all four questions comprehensively. Such additional model evaluation would strengthen stakeholder confidence in model projections and, therefore, into the adaptation strategies derived with the help of impact models.This article is categorized under: Climate Models and Modeling > Knowledge Generation with Models Assessing Impacts of Climate Change > Evaluating Future Impacts of Climate Change