Future Impacts Research Articles

Enhancing Urban Mobility with Aerial Ropeway Transit (ART): Future Accessibility Impacts of Multimodal Transit Expansion Scenarios

Aerial ropeway transit (ART) systems are emerging alternatives to augment existing transit systems in congested cities in the Global South, especially in urban areas with limited transit coverage because of road width constraints or topography. Integration of aerial cable car stations to an existing transit network can improve the overall accessibility of various population segments with significant positive benefits in relation to reducing transport-related social exclusion. This study evaluated the impact of introducing ART in the city of Varanasi (India) and assessed the spatial accessibility improvements to critical facility locations such as heritage sites, educational institutions, hospitals, and employment centers. Several multimodal transit expansion scenarios were considered in this study and the potential benefits of each case were quantified using the two-step floating catchment area (2SFCA) method. A multi-criteria decision-making (MCDM) approach was subsequently employed for identifying the optimal locations of ART stops. Microlevel analysis findings suggest that the mean accessibility values could increase up to 10.92% in the first phase of the ART implementation, which could subsequently increase to 24.7% and 49.8% for the subsequent transit expansion scenarios. The study also investigated the Varanasi ART DPR prepared by Varanasi Development Authority (VDA) and showed that a significant increase of 16% in accessibility levels could be achieved if optimal stop locations identified in this study were implemented. The proposed two-step (2SFCA+MCDM) method for identifying the optimal locations of ART stations in a multimodal transit network is expected to be an effective tool for transit system redesign using place-based accessibility measures.

An Evaluation of Future Climate Change Impacts on Key Elements of the Water–Carbon Cycle Using a Physics-Based Ecohydrological Model in Sanchuan River Basin, Loess Plateau

An Evaluation of Future Climate Change Impacts on Key Elements of the Water–Carbon Cycle Using a Physics-Based Ecohydrological Model in Sanchuan River Basin, Loess Plateau

Functionality of Physics-Informed Neural Networks and Potential Future Impacts on Artificial Intelligence

Physics-informed neural networks, or PINNs, are indicative of a new approach that involves the use of scientific knowledge, as these programs adhere to laws of physics described by general nonlinear partial differential equations while solving problems that are related to physics. This is accomplished via programming these equations into the loss function, which ensures that the underlying system adheres to these laws. This paper will be discussing how PINNs function and analyze how they make use of physics when solving problems. PINNs can be used to model physical systems and phenomena in the real world, including combustion, quantum mechanics, and the simulation of fluid. The data embedded into the code of PINNs also serves to address the issue some neural networks may have with a lack of important data needed to solve relevant scientific issues. The rules and constraints PINNs have ensures that they will provide more realistic solutions in comparison to alternatives. Lastly, this paper will be discussing the potential future applications of PINN programming and functionality on future artificial intelligence (AI) development. PINNs have the potential to address complex scientific problems in a way that other solutions may not be able to, and as such, they are an important topic of discussion.

2024 NCSA Presidential Address: Back to the Future: The Past and Potential Future Impacts of Natural Disasters

ABSTRACT The 2024 NCSA Presidential Address discusses the past and potential future impacts of natural disasters, including COVID-19, on the American people. This NCSA conference talk is based on two edited volumes previously published by Lexington Books in 2021 and 2023. Relevant theories, such as critical demography and historical categorical inequality, are introduced as starting points in the narrative. Next, descriptions of contributions to the volumes are provided, which covered topics such as criminal justice, demographics, economics, history, political science, and sociology to show how effects of natural disasters vary by economic and social class in the United States. Contributors also discussed specific dynamics related to COVID-19, including media responses to COVID-19, differential impacts on the poor, specific impacts on college students through technology, and how the intersection of race, class, and gender matter for natural disaster research. This talk examines social and political mechanisms in disaster response and relief, and then offers potential solutions to the accelerating inequality in America.

Cross‐border dimensions of Arctic climate change impacts and implications for Europe

AbstractThe Arctic has warmed almost four times faster than the rest of the globe during the past four decades. This has led to multiple impacts in the Arctic such as the melting of glaciers and the Greenland ice sheet, sea ice retreat, permafrost thaw, altered species distribution and abundance, changes in hydrology and snow conditions, and altered wildfire regimes. These documented and projected impacts in the region can also propagate across borders, creating risks and opportunities requiring adaptation responses well beyond the Arctic. By undertaking a systematic literature review that uses a conceptual framework for cross‐border climate change impacts, we demonstrate how local impacts of the type described above, which are often analyzed separately in the literature, may initiate knock‐on effects that can be transmitted and transformed across borders. We illustrate examples of six categories of cross‐border risks resulting from this impact transmission and potentially requiring adaptation. These concern biophysical impacts, trade, infrastructure, finance, geopolitical relationships and human security and social justice. We examine potential adaptation options for responding to such cross‐border risks that are of relevance for Europe. The systemic approach taken in this paper promotes improved understanding of trade‐offs between potential benefits and risks, assists priority‐setting for targeting adaptation interventions, and can account for the important role of non‐climatic drivers in amplifying or dampening the cross‐border risks of climate change impacts in the Arctic.This article is categorized under: Trans‐Disciplinary Perspectives > Regional Reviews Assessing Impacts of Climate Change > Observed Impacts of Climate Change Assessing Impacts of Climate Change > Evaluating Future Impacts of Climate Change Vulnerability and Adaptation to Climate Change > Learning from Cases and Analogies

Past and Future Impacts of the Relative Sea Level Rise on the Seafront of Ancient Delos (Cyclades, Greece) and Flooding Scenarios by 2150

Sea level rise due to global warming is a continuing and, disappointingly, accelerating process which has already affected and will further impact coastal lowlands and the social and economic activities in these areas. Delos Island, situated in the middle of the Cyclades in the Aegean Sea, was considered the most sacred of all islands in ancient Greek culture and was a trading hub for the entire eastern Mediterranean. Uninhabited since the 7th century AD, and consistently the focus of research and touristic attention, the island is designated as an archaeological site and inscribed on the UNESCO World Heritage List. Previous studies on the relative sea level (rsl) changes suggest a steadily rising rsl during the last 6300 years, starting from a sea level of −4.80 ± 0.20 m in the Late Neolithic. The seafront of the ancient city of Delos is subject to the effects of rsl rise, which have caused significant coastline retreat and exposure to the northerly winds and waves, whereas parts of the coastal lowland, where the remains of the ancient city lie, are inundated, forming extended wetlands. The future impacts of rsl rise on the seafront of ancient Delos are illustrated on very-high-resolution digital surface models, evaluating both the flooding risk under different climatic projections, as provided by the IPCC AR6 report, and the ongoing land subsidence, as recorded by GNSS data. An rsl rise ranging from 87 cm (SSP1-2.6 scenario) to 148 cm (SSP5-8.5 scenario) is anticipated by 2150, requiring both resilience strategies and adaptation solutions as well as mitigation policies to cope with the effects of climate change.

Future Climate Change Impacts on Rice in Uttar Pradesh, India's Most Populous Agrarian State

AbstractUttar Pradesh, with a population of 237 million, is the largest agrarian state in India, located in the Indo‐Gangetic plains. Rice cultivation is widespread across all districts of Uttar Pradesh, which have varying climate regimes, irrigation infrastructures, crop management practices, and farm sizes. The state is characterized by different agroecological zones (AEZs) with semi‐arid to sub‐humid climates with significant variability in monsoon rainfall. In this study, the impact of climate change on Kharif‐season rice is estimated using crop‐climate scenarios in Uttar Pradesh. A process‐based Crop Simulation Model, Crop Estimation through Resource and Environment Synthesis‐Rice, was simulated with bias‐corrected and downscaled climate data for historical (1995–2014) and three future periods (the 2030s, 2050s, and 2090s) for two mitigation pathways (SSP2‐4.5 and SSP5‐8.5) from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 6. Phenology, irrigation amount, crop evapotranspiration, yield, and water use efficiency were evaluated and assessed for all AEZs. Based on the ensemble of 16 climate models, rainfed rice yield increased in the AEZs of western Uttar Pradesh due to increased rainfall, while in eastern Uttar Pradesh yield decreased, under both shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs). Irrigated rice yield decreased in all AEZs under both SSPs due to an increase in temperature and a decrease in the length of the growing period, with reductions of up to 20% by the 2090s. Irrigation requirements decreased from the 2030s to the 2090s due to increased rainfall and decreased crop evapotranspiration. Despite the projected increase in rainfed yield, the overall rice yield is expected to decrease in the future under both SSPs.

Exploring the Roles, Future Impacts, and Strategic Integration of Artificial Intelligence in the Optimization of Smart City—From Systematic Literature Review to Conceptual Model

Artificial Intelligence (AI) is one of the science fields with huge potential to create a cognitive and tech-leaping type of future smart city design/development. However, extant studies lag behind recent applications, potential growth areas, and the challenges associated with AI implementation. This study examines AI’s current role, trend, and future potential impacts in enhancing smart city drivers. The methodology entails conducting a Systematic Literature Review (SLR) of publications from 2022 onwards. The approach involves qualitative deductive coding methods, descriptive statistical analysis, and thematic analysis. The findings revealed the impacts of AI in (i) public services and connectivity, (ii) improving accessibility and efficiency, (iii) quality healthcare, (iv) education, and (v) public safety. Likewise, strategies, such as collaborative ecosystems, digital infrastructure, capacity building, and clear guidelines and ethical framework, were proposed for fostering the integration of AI in potential future smart cities. This research fills a notable gap in the current understanding of AI’s specific contributions to smart cities, offering insights for stakeholders in urban planning, computer science, sociology, economics, environmental science, and smart city initiatives. It serves as a strategic guideline and scholarly research output for enhancing smart city design. It also underscores the potential of AI in creating dynamic, sustainable, and efficient urban environments.

Adaptation pathways for effective responses to climate change risks

AbstractClimate related changes are already affecting every area of our world and will increasingly do so as global warming increases, resulting in compounding and cascading risks across multiple locations and sectors. Deliberative processes and anticipatory actions are required to adapt to the associated complex and uncertain systemic risks, with dynamic and long‐term planning needed even where there is limited knowledge of the effectiveness of adaptation. In this focus article, we examine the adaptation pathways developed for the Europe Chapter of the IPCC AR6. We argue that illustrative pathways built on quantitative and qualitative assessment of adaptation effectiveness can inform adaptation planning to manage the increasing severity of risks. We find that as the global warming level increases adaptation pathways can diverge, leading to radically different futures, for example, adaptation responses to sea level rise. We illustrate how adaptation measures for different risks interact resulting in trade‐offs, for example, increasing water scarcity. Although pathways offer a useful framework to address multiple adaptation challenges, other supporting conditions are needed for the successful implementation of adaptation, such as establishing legitimacy and buy‐in through collaboration of various actors and effective governance. Ultimately, adaptation will be increasingly more complex and constrained in a warmer world, increasing risks of losses and damages to people and nature.This article is categorized under: Vulnerability and Adaptation to Climate Change > Institutions for Adaptation The Social Status of Climate Change Knowledge > Climate Science and Decision Making Assessing Impacts of Climate Change > Evaluating Future Impacts of Climate Change Vulnerability and Adaptation to Climate Change > Learning from Cases and Analogies

Participation and co‐production in climate adaptation: Scope and limits identified from a meta‐method review of research with European coastal communities

AbstractAs climate change impacts increase, there are growing calls for strengthening relationships between researchers and other stakeholders to advance adaptation efforts. Participation and co‐production are widely held to be key to such relationships, both intended to open substantive engagement in science and research to non‐experts. Gains commonly attributed to participation and co‐production include improved understanding of user needs and contexts, enhanced trust, creating actionable knowledge for adaptation planning and decision‐making, and other new outcomes and practices supporting adaptation progress. At the same time, scrutiny of existing efforts to use participation and co‐production reveals limits and gaps in understanding the conditions and processes required to undertake them in meaningful, appropriate, and effective ways. This review assesses such limitations and gaps across the growing volume of research focused on adapting coastal and island communities within Europe. We systematically reviewed 60 peer‐reviewed papers, drawing on a novel meta‐method review approach to synthesize patterns in participation and co‐production implementations, types of outcomes, and the latter's associations with study research designs. We identify a propensity toward using more simplistic definitions of community, more conventional, extractive research methods in working with study communities, and emphasizing knowledge generation over other outcomes. These issues are all limits on participation and co‐production effectiveness, and we make recommendations to reduce them. We also recommend further recourse to systematic review methods to aid the development of participation and co‐production knowledge for adaptation.This article is categorized under: Assessing Impacts of Climate Change > Evaluating Future Impacts of Climate Change Perceptions, Behavior, and Communication of Climate Change > Perceptions of Climate Change Climate and Development > Social Justice and the Politics of Development

Assessment of Future Climate Change Impacts on Groundwater Recharge Using Hydrological Modeling in the Choushui River Alluvial Fan, Taiwan

Assessment of Future Climate Change Impacts on Groundwater Recharge Using Hydrological Modeling in the Choushui River Alluvial Fan, Taiwan

Impact of Climate Change in Physical Activity and Competitive Sports: Adaptive Measures and Evaluating Future Impacts in Arunachal Pradesh, India

The aim of this paper is to make a detailed study on climate change's impacts on physical activity and organized competitive sports with further attention paid to their adaptation efforts and evaluating the future impacts with special reference to Arunachal Pradesh, India. Linkages between climate and human activity cannot be ignored and it is a universal phenomenon and is certainly possible due to adaptations. These adaptations have direct linkage with physical, mental, emotional, social and overall wellbeing of human beings. Ignoring the degree of adaptation could impact the health upto severe consequences due to climate change. The relationship between sport and environment has to be examined to understand how environment and climatic parameters impacts sport in terms of training, performance and sports injuries. Arunachal Pradesh is a hub of youth potentials especially in sports. Looking at the present climatic crisis, the study aims to assess the impacts of climate change, and measures to be taken by organized competitive sport entities to adapt to the impacts. The study adopts a descriptive analysis including both qualitative and quantitative assessment by exploring secondary information. The findings of the study states that most of the outdoor sport activities especially endurance sports are strongly influenced by meteorological parameters. The effects of weather on sports are varied, performances can get reduced or improved, becomes very severe during extreme weather conditions leading to threat for life. If climate change progresses in scope and severity as predicted, no doubt physical activity and outdoor organized competitive sports is under threat. The valence of this paper lies in its conceptualization of the climate vulnerability on sport activities and its potential to inspire future research and interest in this domain. However, it is important for government, agencies, sports organizations, coaches, athletes, environmentalists, and health experts to have the tools to identify the risks and understand their vulnerabilities.

The effects of climate change on the natural rate of interest: A critical survey

AbstractThis survey reviews the literature about the possible impacts of climate change on the natural rate of interest (r*), an important yardstick for monetary policy. Prima facie, economic, and financial developments can lower r* in scenarios with increasing climate‐related damages and uncertainty that reduce productivity growth and raise precautionary savings. Orderly climate policies have a pivotal role in facilitating the transition to a carbon‐neutral economy and supporting a steady investment flow. We discuss the main models used to simulate the effects of climate change on r* and summarize the outcomes. However, in scenarios that assume innovations and investments induced by transition policies, r* could be affected positively. Overall, the downward effects of climate change on r* can be substantial, even considering the high degree of uncertainty about the outcomes, with tipping points and nonlinear effects aggravating the economic impacts. The downward pressure on r* will further challenge monetary policy in the long run, by limiting its policy space.This article is categorized under: Climate Economics > Economics and Climate Change Assessing Impacts of Climate Change > Evaluating Future Impacts of Climate Change

Climate catastrophe: The value of envisioning the worst‐case scenarios of climate change

AbstractMany now argue that we should think about the previously unthinkable risks of climate change, including societal collapses and human extinction. Calamitous images of the future are not pathological or counterproductive: it is both necessary and valuable to imagine the worst‐case scenarios of climate change. Critics of climate catastrophe often group together all visions of disastrous futures under labels like doomism or pessimism. This is unhelpful and greater nuance is required. We need to distinguish between climate doomists (who see catastrophe as imminent and unavoidable) and climate risk realists (who see catastrophe as one potential future that should be avoided). We also need to split apart the different ways of envisioning climate catastrophe to understand their distinct strengths and weaknesses. We outline and compare three alternative modes of viewing the worst‐case scenarios of climate change: foresight, agitation, and fiction. The first centers on modeling catastrophic climate scenarios, the second on the use of images of climate catastrophe for political action, and the third on fictional visions of future climate disasters. These different approaches are complementary and should be better integrated to create more comprehensive models of the future. All of them would benefit from viewing the future as uncertain, reflecting on the social position of the author, and guarding against the authoritarian “stomp reflex” that can be induced by discussions of crisis and emergency.This article is categorized under: Assessing Impacts of Climate Change > Evaluating Future Impacts of Climate Change Perceptions, Behavior, and Communication of Climate Change > Perceptions of Climate Change Climate, History, Society, Culture > Ideas and Knowledge

Climate Adaptation Planning: Developing a Methodology for Evaluating Future Climate Change Impacts on Museum Environments and Their Collections

As organisations, museums are responsible for conserving, protecting, and displaying artwork and artefacts. Museum buildings must deliver an environment that will continue to provide this facility for both current and future generations. This research focused on presenting a museum with quantifiable and measurable data to help with climate adaptation planning. A methodology was developed using monitored data. Subhourly data for both indoor and outdoor temperature and humidity spanning the years 2012–2021 was used to produce a daily maximum, daily minimum, and daily average dataset. A sensitivity analysis determined which years to use to derive the indoor-outdoor relationships used in climate modelling. Future impacts were calculated using UK Climate Projections 2018 (UKCP18) data (12 models on a 2.2 km scale), as published by the Met Office Hadley Centre. The data contained within the 12 models was overlayed with the relationships derived to calculate the projected indoor temperature and humidity conditions within the museum. The results presented indicate that temperature and humidity conditions are projected to exceed design conditions more frequently in the coming decades. Consequently, adaptation plans must consider the potential impacts that include indoor environmental deterioration, leading to discomfort and health implications, increased energy costs, and system upgrade costs, as well as the potential for accelerated degradation of artwork and artefacts.

Analysis of the future potential impact of environmental and climate changes on wildfire spread in Ghana's ecological zones using a Random Forest (RF) machine learning approach

Climate change is increasing the hazards and catastrophes in many parts of the world, without sparing the natural zones, which are likewise growing more vulnerable in the face of human pressure. This study looked at how climate change affects wildfire spread via prediction in the Guinean savannah (GSZ) and the forest-savannah mosaic (FSZ) in Ghana. Random forest regression was employed to attain this goal. As a result, the CCLM4-8-17 model outputs were employed and analyzed under two Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5), since they better forecast the climate of the biological zones studied with less error (R2, RMSE, Bias, Spearman Correlation). As a result, there is a decrease in rainfall over the simulated period (2022–2100) in both zones (FSZ, GSZ), considering both scenarios (RCP4.5; RCP8.5), and an increase in temperature in FSZ (+0.08 °C for RCP4.5 and 0.1 °C for RCP8.5) and GZS (+0.04 °C for RCP4 and +0.09 °C for RCP8.5). Under RCP4 and RCP8 scenarios, the average number of active fires (HS) on their part shows that the average near future (2022–2060) will have more areas favourable to fire activities (active points) in both ecological zones: RCP4_GSZ_HS (316 n), RCP4_FSZ_HS (252 n), RCP8_GSZ_HS (333 n), RCP8_FSZ_HS (285 n), followed by the average far future (2061–2100) The average burnt area (BA) under RCP4.5 and RCP8.4 that average near future (2022–2060) will also contain a more burnt area in both ecological zones: RCP4_GSZ_BA (25290.96 ha), RCP4_FSZ_BA (20758.51 ha), RCP8_GSZ_BA (25766.66 ha), RCP8_FSZ_BA (20699.91 ha) followed by average for far future (2061–2100): RCP4_GSZ_BA (14849.20 ha), RCP4_FSZ_BA (11782.11 ha), RCP8_GSZ_BA (19,299.07 ha), RCP8_FSZ_BA (1072.01 ha). Thus, under the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios, tmax_RP4, SM, and ETA contribute more to fire activity and spread in the GSZ. However, in the FSZ, RH, tmax_RP4, and SM contribute more to fire activity and spread in the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios, with varying amounts. Because of the above, decision-makers and academics must take tangible steps to develop novel techniques to minimise the future impacts of fires.

High resolution heat stress over a Sahelian city: Present and future impact assessment and urban green effectiveness

AbstractCities in the Sahel are heavily impacted by heat stress. Climate change, growing population rates and urbanization will increase the magnitude and intensity of urban heat stress towards the future. This study provides a comprehensive analysis of the current status of heat stress in Niamey (Niger) and future impacts by combining the results of two models operating at city‐level: UrbClim which simulates (future) climate and GeoDynamiX, providing future city spatial extents combined with the results of a measurement campaign. Additionally, a meter‐scale assessment of heat stress within the city is executed for a selection of city districts. Urban green and trees are effective mitigation tools for heat stress, which is observed in both measurements and model results, being most effective during the hottest hours of the day when they lower heat stress to less health‐impacting levels. Future simulations show a strong increase in the spatial extent and intensity of extreme temperatures within the city. This impacts city dwellers, which will consequently experience much more days with extreme heat stress levels towards the future, doubling or tripling depending on the climate scenario. Socio‐economic impacts for mid‐century are quantified, noting increases in heat‐related mortality of several percentages compared to present‐day values. Additionally, negative economic impacts of several percentages of the Gross Domestic Product are projected as heat stress will prohibit performing moderate or high‐intensity activities during the hottest hours of the day, even in the shade.

A review of ENSO teleconnections at present and under future global warming

AbstractThe El Niño‐Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a major component of the Earth's climate that largely influences global climate variability through long‐distance teleconnections. Rossby wave trains emerging from the tropical convection and their propagation into extratropical regions are the key mechanism for tropical and extratropical teleconnections. Despite significant progress in the understanding of ENSO teleconnections over the recent past decades, several important issues have remained to be addressed. The global atmospheric teleconnections of ENSO vary substantially with the seasonal cycle, on the decadal timescale, and under the influence of global warming. It is essential to separate the internal decadal variability of ENSO teleconnections from changes caused by the external forcing of global warming. However, the post‐satellite observations are not long enough to compose a large number of ENSO events to distinguish the decadal variability of ENSO teleconnections from changes related to increasing greenhouse concentrations. The current climate models also suffer from common biases, such that they are unable to properly reproduce both the tropical mean state and some features of ENSO. Nevertheless, observational records can be extended back in time via reconstruction methods. Efforts have also already been made to remove some main common biases of climate models and to improve the representation of ENSO characteristics. The reliable reconstructed data along with a large number of ensemble members of the improved climate model simulations can be applied to advance our understanding of ENSO global teleconnections and their responses to internal decadal variability and externally forced global warming.This article is categorized under: Paleoclimates and Current Trends > Modern Climate Change Climate Models and Modeling > Earth System Models Assessing Impacts of Climate Change > Evaluating Future Impacts of Climate Change

The Future Impact of Shipping Emissions on Air Quality in Europe under Climate Change

Ship engine combustion emits several atmospheric pollutants, such as PM, SOx, and NOx, which can have adverse health effects and are significant contributors to decreased air quality. Due to the distribution of maritime transport activity routes in the EU, a large portion of the population is exposed to shipping emissions throughout Europe. Therefore, in light of the European Commission long-term objective of “zero-waste, zero-emission” for maritime transport, the focus of this study was to quantify the impact of shipping emissions in the present, as well as the future, considering both emissions projection for the shipping sector and a climate change scenario. The WRF-CHIMERE modelling system was used to quantify the impact of shipping in Europe. To obtain the current and future contributions of maritime transport to the total pollutant concentrations, simulations were divided into two present (baseline and without shipping) and three future scenarios (shipping projection, climate change, and shipping projection and climate change). The results indicate that the current and future impacts of shipping emissions on pollutant concentrations are similar in some regions (NO2 for Northern Europe and SO2 for Southern Europe), which is due to the enforcement of emission control areas for those pollutants. However, efforts towards lowering emissions from the shipping sector are negated in the south of this domain due to the concentration changes caused by the climate change scenario. In light of these changes, the introduction of a NECA is proposed for the Mediterranean, which would help us to make great strides to reduce the impact of the shipping sector in the region and aid in counteracting the effects of climate change.

When will a changing climate outpace adaptive evolution?

AbstractDecades of research have illuminated the underlying ingredients that determine the scope of evolutionary responses to climate change. The field of evolutionary biology therefore stands ready to take what it has learned about influences upon the rate of adaptive evolution—such as population demography, generation time, and standing genetic variation—and apply it to assess if and how populations can evolve fast enough to “keep pace” with climate change. Here, our review highlights what the field of evolutionary biology can contribute and what it still needs to learn to provide more mechanistic predictions of the winners and losers of climate change. We begin by developing broad predictions for contemporary evolution to climate change based on theory. We then discuss methods for assessing climate‐driven contemporary evolution, including quantitative genetic studies, experimental evolution, and space‐for‐time substitutions. After providing this mechanism‐focused overview of both the evidence for evolutionary responses to climate change and more specifically, evolving to keep pace with climate change, we next consider the factors that limit actual evolutionary responses. In this context, we consider the dual role of phenotypic plasticity in facilitating but also impeding evolutionary change. Finally, we detail how a deeper consideration of evolutionary constraints can improve forecasts of responses to climate change and therefore also inform conservation and management decisions.This article is categorized under: Climate, Ecology, and Conservation > Observed Ecological Changes Climate, Ecology, and Conservation > Extinction Risk Assessing Impacts of Climate Change > Evaluating Future Impacts of Climate Change