Future Hazard Research Articles

Influence of anthropogenic landscape modifications and infrastructure on the geological characteristics of liquefaction

Abstract Many large cities worldwide are built on natural and engineered geological materials that are highly susceptible to liquefaction and associated ground failure in earthquakes. Constitutive equations describing relationships between sediment geotechnical characteristics, seismological parameters, and liquefaction susceptibility of natural and engineered sediments are well established. What is less understood is the role of anthropogenic landscape modifications (e.g., river channel modifications, sediment engineering and re-distribution) and infrastructure (e.g., buildings, buried infrastructure such as drainage systems) on the spatial distributions and severity of liquefaction and ground deformation. Here we use stratigraphic studies, ground penetrating radar (GPR), and analyses of high-resolution aerial photographs to evaluate surface and subsurface geological manifestations of recurrent liquefaction in anthropogenically-modified landscapes during the 2010–2011 Canterbury earthquake sequence in New Zealand. Engineered fill layers provided low density, high permeability traps that captured fluidized sediment and promoted the formation of a unique assemblage of liquefaction-induced sediment intrusions that differ from those preserved in proximal natural sediment. Subsurface drainage systems imparted significant influence on the location, size and orientations of liquefaction ejecta features. Sediments adjacent to engineered stream channels experienced large lateral strains that are unlikely to have occurred in the absence of channel modifications. Spatial variations in naturally-formed topography and liquefaction-susceptible sediments exerted strong influence on the characteristics of liquefaction hazards, even in highly engineered environments. Collectively, these observations highlight important interactions between natural and engineered environments that should be carefully considered when interpreting the geologic effects of contemporary earthquakes and / or using prehistoric geological records to forecast future hazards.

Limbo: the unintended consequences of home buyout programmes on peripheral communities

Home buyout programmes are designed to permanently relocate households away from areas that are vulnerable to future hazards, though their impacts are not well understood. Among the least understood impacts of these programmes are those related to non-participating households located near buyout zones. Here, we present findings from a study of Oakwood, NY, a peripheral community that was impacted by a buyout programme in a neighbouring community. Drawing on qualitative data collected three-and-a-half years after Hurricane Sandy, we examine the experiences of affected households through the lens of Conservation of Resources theory. We find that residents of the peripheral community experienced a suite of losses associated with the implementation of the buyout, including losses in the physical environment that impacted their sense of safety, losses in conditions resources reflecting a perception that the government had failed to act in their best interests, and the threat of long-term financial losses associated with post-buyout land use decisions over which they had no control. Taken together, these losses contributed to an experience of stalled recovery that left residents in a permanent state of limbo. Policy implications related to the consideration of peripheral communities in the assessment and implementation of buyouts are discussed.

Study on Coulomb Stress Evolution Along Altyn Fault

Taking the altyn fault zone as the study area, the maxwell layered viscoelastic medium model and the PSGRN / PSCMP program were used to study the evolution of the cumulative coulomb stress over the altyn fault from 1900 to 2020, analyze the future seismic hazards of faults in the altyn fault zone. The results show that: the minfeng earthquake and changma earthquake were mainly caused by the long-term tectonic loading of the altyn fault. The wuzunxiaoer S8 section and the shulehe 4 S18 south section were affected by the combined effects of the changma earthquake and long-term earthquake loading. In particular, the maximum cumulative coulomb stress of shulehe 4 S18 south section is 2.58Mpa,which is a great danger to strong earthquakes.

Lessons from COVID-19 Pandemic – SWOT analysis

Introduction: The whole world is witnessing the transition of every sphere of human activity – home, work, education, health, time, travel, eating/drinking, shopping, etc., due to the COVID-19 pandemic. Neither hard power nor soft power could stop a tiny member of the coronavirus family from its global spread of COVID-19. Majorly, it has affected the health of the people and wealth of the nations. Society has explored many new normal thereby learn to live with corona. Objectives: The objectives of the study were to analyze what lessons we have learned from this once-in-a-lifetime experience, i.e., the COVID-19 pandemic and the issues and challenges in combating the sudden outbreaks. Materials and Methods: SWOT (Strengths Weakness Opportunities Threats) analysis has been used as a tool to depict the lessons learned in general and for Ayurveda in specific from the COVID-19 pandemic. Conclusion: There are no shortcuts to combat pandemics. Pandemics remind us about the common adage “Prevention is better than cure.” An ongoing situation may end tomorrow or the day after, but when all this is over, the earth will continue to spin, and life will flow again. Ultimately, it is the time to pause and rewind the lessons from pandemic and guidance for our future public health hazards.

Past meets present to help future seismic hazard forecasts in San Diego

Past meets present to help future seismic hazard forecasts in San Diego

Comparison and validation of per-pixel and object-based approaches for landslide susceptibility mapping

Remote sensing and geographic information systems (GIS) are widely used for landslide susceptibility mapping (LSM) to support planning authorities to plan, prepare and mitigate the consequences of future hazards. In this study, we compared the traditional per-pixel models of data-driven frequency ratio (FR) and expert-based multi-criteria assessment, i.e. analytical hierarchical process (AHP), with an object-based model that uses homogenous regions (‘geon’). The geon approach allows for transforming continuous spatial information into discrete objects. We used ten landslide conditioning factors for the four models to produce landslide susceptibility maps: elevation, slope angle, slope aspect, rainfall, lithology, geology, land use, distance to roads, distance to drainage, and distance to faults. Existing national landslide inventory data were divided into training (70%) and validation data (30%). The spatial correlation between landslide locations and the conditioning factors were identified using GIS-based statistical models. Receiver operating characteristics (ROC) and the relative landslide density index (R-index) were used to validate the resulting susceptibility maps. The area under the curve (AUC) was used to obtain the following values from ROC for the per-pixel based FR approach (0.894) and the AHP (0.886) compared with the object-based geon FR approach (0.905) and the geon AHP (0.896). The object-based geon aggregation yielded a higher accuracy than both per-pixel based weightings (FR and AHP). We proved that the object-based geon approach creates meaningful regional units that are beneficial for regional planning and hazard mitigation.

Estimation of agro-ecosystem services using biogeochemical models

Agro-ecosystem services are the various benefits (e.g., crop yield) that people freely obtain from the properly functioning agricultural lands. The estimated changes in climatic conditions including increasing temperature, with particular attention to the summer means, together with the expected changes in the temporal precipitation distribution pose enormous challenge to the agriculture. Currently, dynamic system models are most frequently used tools that are capable of estimating the prospective effects of climate change on agro-ecosystems. A deterministic biogeochemical model is presented that is developed by Hungarian scientists within the framework of the AgroMo project. The main goal of the AgroMo project is to develop climate-smart strategies in order to mitigate the effect of potential future hazards in the context of climate change by 1) creating a complex, state-of-the-art experimental platform; 2) producing ten new, 0.1° spatial resolution climate scenarios based on the RCP (Representative Concentration Pathway) 4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios; 3) developing an integrated assessment and modeling framework that is capable of simulating every major land use types; 4) analyzing/simulating a great number of adaptation strategies that can be used to support decision makers. Based on the preliminary simulation results, climate change will most likely expose significant negative impact on the spring sown crops in Hungary. Although, the yield losses could be avoided with irrigation or could be mitigated with earlier sowing, the role of winter crops is likely to become more significant in Hungary in the future.

Disaster management strategy for avoiding the future losses by a slope failure at Nanhuan road, Fuxin area, Northeast China

Many surrounding areas in the vicinity of failed slope at Nanhuan road, Fuxin area, Northeast China are witnessed as the signs of disaster. The observed settlement as wastage of an active mass in the area has been observed after the excessive precipitation in 2012 (May to October) which caused infrastructural damages (Roads at the top and bottom of the failure zone), agricultural fields and residential areas. Therefore, the paper proposes examining this subject. An extensive field investigation was conducted in the area of Fuxin, west of Liaoning province China. It is recommended and suggested that a series of disaster prevention and both structural and non-structural mitigation measures with the involvement of government and local community are required, to be prepared in advance for avoiding the future economic loss as well as the impending disaster in the area. This paper also highlights the need of investigation in response mechanism and forward planning for awareness initiatives: to avoid the future hazard in the remotest failure zones of Fuxin area, Northeast China.

Hazard from Himalayan glacier lake outburst floods

Sustained glacier melt in the Himalayas has gradually spawned more than 5,000 glacier lakes that are dammed by potentially unstable moraines. When such dams break, glacier lake outburst floods (GLOFs) can cause catastrophic societal and geomorphic impacts. We present a robust probabilistic estimate of average GLOFs return periods in the Himalayan region, drawing on 5.4 billion simulations. We find that the 100-y outburst flood has an average volume of 33.5+3.7/-3.7 × 106 m3 (posterior mean and 95% highest density interval [HDI]) with a peak discharge of 15,600+2,000/-1,800 m3⋅s-1 Our estimated GLOF hazard is tied to the rate of historic lake outbursts and the number of present lakes, which both are highest in the Eastern Himalayas. There, the estimated 100-y GLOF discharge (∼14,500 m3⋅s-1) is more than 3 times that of the adjacent Nyainqentanglha Mountains, and at least an order of magnitude higher than in the Hindu Kush, Karakoram, and Western Himalayas. The GLOF hazard may increase in these regions that currently have large glaciers, but few lakes, if future projected ice loss generates more unstable moraine-dammed lakes than we recognize today. Flood peaks from GLOFs mostly attenuate within Himalayan headwaters, but can rival monsoon-fed discharges in major rivers hundreds to thousands of kilometers downstream. Projections of future hazard from meteorological floods need to account for the extreme runoffs during lake outbursts, given the increasing trends in population, infrastructure, and hydropower projects in Himalayan headwaters.

Approaches for Disaster Risk Reduction and Management in the Context of Islam

Disaster management is a global responsibility to cope with the adverse situations. Developed countries have huge investment in integration of Disaster Risk Reduction measures in their daily life development programs and are well equipped in technology to avert a hazard into a normal event or minimize the sufferings caused by disasters. Developing nations are still focusing only on post disaster response and relief activities yet neglecting the aspect of Disaster Risk Reduction. For development to be sustainable, it is important to incorporate risk element in their routine life. Muslim world was progressively developed in science till 1600 but unfortunately they lack behind in science and technology after 17th century. The teachings of Quran and Hadith stressed on the planning and preparedness against any future haphazard. Islam is a complete religion with complete teachings for the wellbeing of the humanity. Our Prophet Muhammad (SAW) Sunnah is a complete guidance for us to live in harmony and peace. This paper will guide us to follow the teachings of Islam, Quran and Hadith in order to build our capacities and to better prepared against disasters. Benefit from the Islamic teaching, learning from the preparedness strategies against future hazards in light of the strategies being taken by the Messengers of Allah and relate the essentials of risk reduction to make a standard mechanism for Risk Communication and education at community level.

PNS371 EVALUATING QUALITY OF PRIMARY HEALTH CARE (PHC) SERVICES FROM THE PATIENTS' PERSPECTIVE IN GREECE

Research on health services’ responsiveness (ability of a health provider to meet or exceed patients’/service recipients’ expectations) and consequently self-perceived quality of care is increasingly shifting towards measuring patient reported experiences. The aim of this study was to evaluate patient experiences using Health Centres’ (HCs) primary care services in urban and semi-urban areas of Greece. A cross-sectional survey was conducted in 2017. The study sample included 350 users of five HCs’ services in urban and semi-urban areas (convenience sampling), who evaluated several dimensions of care (accessibility, comprehensiveness and continuity/coordination of care, quality of medical and nursing care and facilities) in an ascending positive experience scale from 1 to 5. The questionnaire used was based on a measurement tool developed, tested and validated by the authors. More than ¼ of the users (26.6%) were >65 years, 51.7% were women, 90% were of Greek nationality, 1/5 had higher education and almost half of the participants suffered from a chronic disease (48.6%). The mean total patient experience score was high (=3.98), indicating positive levels of patient experience. Users rated quality of nursing care highly (=4.21), while comprehensiveness of care and accessibility scored lower (3.93 and 3.95, respectively), but still over the mid-point scale. After adjusting for patient characteristics, decreased educational level was related with increased patient experience scores (p<0.035) and the Greeks had higher continuity & coordination and comprehensiveness of care scores than the non Greeks (p=0.002 and p<0.001, respectively). In general, the study showed that HCs’ users reported relatively positive experiences at all dimensions of care evaluated. Nevertheless, it is important that population groups such as the migrants are provided with more coordinated, continuous and comprehensive PHC services in order to improve their health status, avoid future hazards and, therefore, increased costs of hospital services.

Dynamic What-if Modeling Simulation

Dynamic modeling and simulation will be used to provide an understanding of the interactions between various complex systems. This dynamic model is based on an enterprise architecture framework whereby complex, dynamic and non-linear interactions, particularly those involving the human, can be understood and analyzed. Our modeling approach will include a synthesis of top-down and bottom-up strategies. The top-down portion will analyze high-level, mandated guidance and trace its tenants down to individually identifiable activities at the worker-level. We will then model these activities through the provision of a discrete event task model emphasizing research-based human performance and cognitive workload principles (bottom-up). These principles are based on accepted theories of the interaction between cognitive workload and human error. Synthesizing these two approaches will demonstrate both the impact and effect of high-level mandated activities and aid analysts in their understanding of how, why and when these impacts help or possibly hinder humans at the worker level. Benefits of using this model, namely the ability to predict what if scenarios in real time will be discussed. The model will be tested across multiple domains to demonstrate the potential modeling approach and its application in future hazard analyses.

The role of collective and individual assets in building urban community resilience

ABSTRACT This paper explores how organised urban communities in Bangkok are planning for and responding to environmental and other crises, to identify approaches to fostering more sustainable, inclusive and resilient urban development. Lower-income residents may not have access to support systems such as disaster insurance, so being able to use existing assets can offer an opportunity for successful coping and adaptation strategies to future shocks. The study explores what actions are taken by lower-income residents to cope and adapt using their individual and collective assets in response to current and future hazards – especially in contexts where social capital is strong from a history of collective slum upgrading. It shows that such asset-based approaches can be an entry point for cooperation between these communities and other stakeholders, including local government, local NGOs and others, and there is scope to further strengthen asset-based adaptation approaches through legal and institutional measures.

OpenQuake Implementation of the Canterbury Seismic Hazard Model

ABSTRACTThis article describes the release of the GNS Science Canterbury Seismic Hazard Model (CSHM), as implemented in the Global Earthquake Model’s OpenQuake software. Time‐varying models are implemented for the 50 yr time period between 2014 and 2064, as well as the 1 yr period from 1 September 2018 to 31 August 2019. Previous implementations have been confined to GNS in‐house software, and although source model input files have been made publicly available, this implementation improves the levels of visibility, documentation, and version control. Because of practical constraints in preparing a model for routine analysis, some corrections and changes to the previous implementations have been made. These constraints highlight issues for consideration when developing future hazard models, particularly the necessity of maintaining a balance between best‐practice science and practical model implementation. By implementing the CSHM in OpenQuake, the model is now in a form that allows users to obtain model outputs for engineering design, risk analyses, and prospective model testing.

Risk-based portfolio management of civil infrastructure assets under deep uncertainties associated with climate change: a robust optimisation approach

Managers of civil infrastructure systems are facing the challenge to effectively and efficiently manage the ageing and deteriorating asset portfolio while accommodating ever increasing demand resulting from socioeconomic development and climate change. In this article, a novel approach using robust optimisation is proposed for risk-based portfolio management of civil infrastructure assets under deep uncertainties associated with climate change. Robust optimisations based on minimax loss and minimax regret criteria are employed to yield intervention plans that can effectively reduce the long-term risk under different realisations of future scenarios. Through sensitivity analysis, it is found that the obtained solutions from robust optimisation are less sensitive to the factors that require long-term predictions (e.g. change in future hazard and deterioration conditions) than those that do not (e.g. the preference of the decision-maker on user cost and the efficiency of intervention actions). Therefore, the proposed approach is especially suitable for management under deep uncertainty. The proposed approach is applied to plan intervention actions for bridges over the Lehigh River, Pennsylvania under deterioration and flood-induced scour, both of which are affected by climate change.

A SPH two-layer depth-integrated model for landslide-generated waves in reservoirs: application to Halaowo in Jinsha River (China)

In this work, a two-layer depth-integrated smoothed particle hydrodynamics (SPH) model is applied to investigate the effects of landslide propagation on the impulsive waves generated when entering a water body. In order to deal with the open boundary in practical engineering problems, an absorbing boundary method, based on Riemann invariants which can be applied to arbitrary geometries, is implemented. In order to examine the accuracy of the proposed formulation, the model is tested against both available laboratory tests and numerical examples from the literature. Then, it is adopted to model the characteristics of the impulse waves generated by the Halaowo landslide in the Jinsha River, China. The results provide a technical basis for the emergency plan to the Halaowo landslide and benefit the disaster prevention policy, which helps mitigating future hazards in similar reservoir areas.

Preventive Environmental Wars

ABSTRACTThis article argues that there is a just cause for war to prevent the future hazards of anthropogenic climate change even if, because of what is known as the Non-Identity Problem, that cause is not grounded in the rights of future generations. The evidential demands for justifying preventive military action to forestall climate change have been met, as a majority of climate scientists affirm that climate change is underway and is likely to become seriously hazardous for future generations. The types and scale of prospective harms threatened by climate change are such that, were they to result from an armed attack, there would unequivocally be a just cause for war. Though the author argues that there is a just cause for preventive environmental war, such wars are probably unjustified, all things considered. At present, preventive environmental war would be counterproductive and would harm many non-liable people. Should non-coercive remedies fail, measures short of war, such as “soft war” and jus ad vim tactics, should then be attempted to coerce compliance by environmental wrongdoers. Should these remedies prove ineffective, preventive environmental war may be a necessary evil.

Hazards and Disasters in the Geological and Geomorphological record: A key to understanding past and future hazards and disasters and their impact on life

Hazards and disasters have occurred throughout Earth's History and thus the geological record is an important resource for understanding future hazards and disasters and its Impact. The Earth Science Group (ESG) of the Consortium of European Taxonomic Facilities (CETAF) carried out a “Hazard and Disaster Event Survey” to identify Earth Science collections in European museums that represent hazards and disasters throughout the geological record, and recent times. The aim is to use the collections within the survey as an educational and research resource that promotes the importance of museum collections for understanding past and future hazard and disaster events. The survey pinpointed a wide variety of hazards (e.g. earthquakes, volcanism, floods, impact events, etc.), representing a vast time span in Earth’s history (Proterozoic to Holocene), that are documented in the collections of the participating museums. Each hazard and disaster event has been described in terms of how each is preserved (e.g. fossil record or rock record), spatial scale, impact on life and biodiversity, and geological age. The results were published in Research ideas and outcomes journal RIO (https://riojournal.com/article/34087/) as seven examples, which include well-known and less-known events from the survey that have contributed to our understanding of hazard and disaster processes and their impact on life and biodiversity. For better visualisation and education purposes we also created and specialised website, which will be launched during summer 2019. In the presentation we will talk about general conclusions and lessons learnt from the “Hazard and Disaster Event Survey”.

Palaeontological and Biological Collections – Bridging the gap

Palaeontology and biology are closely related sciences, as are the collections associated with them. Nevertheless there are differences between the two types of collections and the scientific data that they yield with regards to taxonomy, climate and ecology. In order to bridge the gap between the two subjects, it is important to clarify what these differences are and how they can be used to supplement research that addresses future environmental/climatic issues. In biology, valuable traits of the whole organism serve for taxonomy. In the fossil record, a morphospecies concept needs to be used because specimens are mainly preserved fragmentarily and palaeontologists have to take advantage of morphological traits that are often disregarded by biologists. Another difference is that biological objects represent modern time, while the fossil record provides valuable information on a deep time perspective, i.e., in a third dimension. Yet, these two disciplines obviously depend on each other: while biologists provide palaeontologists with information about unfossilised soft parts, palaeontology can help to solve questions about life in the past. Using four current case studies from the Stuttgart Natural History Museum, we provide examples of how biological and palaeontological information stored in museum collections are linterlinked, and particularly how palaeontology can help to solve current and future problems. We also highlight the potential of palaeontological collections and demonstrate the necessity of digitizing large quantities of objects as well as the related basic information. Case studies are: Fossil leaves provide evidence for past atmospheric CO2 levels and climate change, which can be used for climate change models. Fossils help to understand current and future hazards e.g., fossils embedded in tsunami sediments can provide information on how tsunamis affect shelf marine ecosytems. Extensive taxonomic studies of Miocene land snails and the comparison with extant relatives allow the reconstruction of fossil environments. Combined with complementary methods, the biological, geological and meteorological factors controlling these environments can be reconstructed. Phylogenetic studies tell us how life evolved and how organisms have changed through time. An important factor for phylogeny is the time-aspect, such as the splitting of lineages. Phylogenetic trees based on modern taxa can only be validated by fossils. We will present an example of insect phylogeny. Fossil leaves provide evidence for past atmospheric CO2 levels and climate change, which can be used for climate change models. Fossils help to understand current and future hazards e.g., fossils embedded in tsunami sediments can provide information on how tsunamis affect shelf marine ecosytems. Extensive taxonomic studies of Miocene land snails and the comparison with extant relatives allow the reconstruction of fossil environments. Combined with complementary methods, the biological, geological and meteorological factors controlling these environments can be reconstructed. Phylogenetic studies tell us how life evolved and how organisms have changed through time. An important factor for phylogeny is the time-aspect, such as the splitting of lineages. Phylogenetic trees based on modern taxa can only be validated by fossils. We will present an example of insect phylogeny. These case studies not only show how biology and palaeontology are interlinked, but the first three studies are sound examples of how the knowledge of the past helps to understand the present. Furthermore, the first two studies are highly relevant for predicting the future. All of this information can only be used appropriately, if large proportions of data are available that include information on geology and age. For this reason, the Access to Biological Collection Data Extended for Geosciences (ABCD EFG) standard is so important, as it extends the two-dimensional view (Recent) into a third dimension (deep time). Our vision is an integrated modelling of past, present and future scenarios, whether for climate or ecosystem change, or geological hazards. Considering the deep time information, we can model how changes would take place under natural conditions, i.e., without anthropogenic influence. This requires the availability of large data sets of taxonomic information on the EFG level from all over the world.

Developing Consequence Thresholds for Storm Models Through Participatory Processes: Case Study of Westerly Rhode Island

Emergency managers face challenges in understanding and communicating potential hurricane hazards. Preparedness typically emphasizes the last event encountered, the potential implications of future hazards may thus be underestimated. Risk assessment models (e.g., basic HAZUS) that emphasize accumulated damages in economic terms do not provide actionable data regarding specific local concerns, such as access by emergency vehicles and potential communications disruptions. Qualitative methods conventionally used to identify these concerns, however, lack the specificity necessary to incorporate the managers’ knowledge into hazard models (e.g., highly exact geographic location of the vulnerability or cascading consequences). This research develops a method to collect rich, actionable, qualitative data from critical facility managers that can be utilized in combination with hydrodynamic, wind, and precipitation models to assess potential hazard consequences. A pilot study was conducted with critical facility managers in Westerly, Rhode Island USA, using semi-structured interviews and participatory mapping. Interview methods were based on existing practices for vulnerability assessments, and further augmented to obtain data based on hurricane modeling requirements. This research identifies challenges and recommendations when collecting critical facility manager's knowledge for incorporation into storm simulations. The method described and enables local experts to contribute actionable knowledge to natural hazard models and augment more traditional engineering-based approaches to risk assessment.