Future Glacier Research Articles

Potential future lakes from continued glacier shrinkage in the Aosta Valley Region (Western Alps, Italy)

Aosta Valley (Western Alps, Italy) is the region with the largest glacierized area of Italy. Like other high mountain regions, it has shown a significant glacier retreat starting from the end of the ‘Little Ice Age’ that is expected to continue in the future. As a direct consequence of glacier shrinkage, glacier-bed overdeepenings become exposed, offering suitable geomorphological conditions for glacier lakes formation. In such a densely populated and developed region, opportunities and risks connected to lakes may arise: 1) economic exploitation for hydropower production, tourism and water supply; 2) environmental relevance for high mountain biodiversity and geodiversity; 3) potential risks due to outbursts and consequent floods.In this study, the locations of potential future glacier lakes over large glacierized areas (183 glaciers covering 163,1 km2) of Aosta Valley were assessed by using the GlabTop2 model.46 overdeepenings larger than 10,800 m2 were identified, covering an area of 3.1 ± 0.9 km2 and having a volume of 0.06 ± 0.02 km3. The majority of the overdeepenings are located in the Monte Rosa-Cervino massif and a mean depth <10 m characterizes them. Moreover, an estimation of the most recent total ice volume for the Aosta Valley was provided (5.2 ± 1.6 km3 referred to 2008).Thanks to the validation by the proposed “backward approach” and GPR (Ground Penetrating Radar) data, we can confirm that the location of the overdeepenings is robust while their actual dimensions are subject to considerable uncertainties. Almost all of large lakes (area > 10,000 m2), potentially the most dangerous, are modelled. Finally, we suggest choosing medium pixel size (about 60 m) of the DEM in order to obtain, at least, the location of the largest lakes and to avoid overestimations of ice thickness and thus a great number of false positive overdeepenings.The results presented here can be useful for understanding how the alpine environment will look in the future and can help the management of water resources and risks related to glacier lakes.

Mass Loss From Calving in Himalayan Proglacial Lakes

The formation and expansion of Himalayan glacial lakes has implications for glacier dynamics, mass balance and glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs). Subaerial and subaqueous calving is an important component of glacier mass loss but they have been difficult to track due to spatiotemporal resolution limitations in remote sensing data and few field observations. In this study, we used near-daily 3 m resolution PlanetScope imagery in conjunction with an uncrewed aerial vehicle (UAV) survey to quantify calving events and derive an empirical area–volume relationship to estimate calved glacier volume from planimetric iceberg areas. A calving event at Thulagi Glacier in 2017 was observed by satellite from before and during the event to nearly complete melting of the icebergs, and was observed in situ midway through the melting period, thus giving insights into the melting processes. In situ measurements of Thulagi Lake’s surface and water column indicate that daytime sunlight absorption heats mainly just the top metre of water, but this heat is efficiently mixed downwards through the top tens of metres due to forced convection by wind-blown icebergs; this heat then is retained by the lake and is available to melt the icebergs. Using satellite data, we assess seasonal glacier velocities, lake thermal regime and glacier surface elevation change for Thulagi, Lower Barun and Lhotse Shar glaciers and their associated lakes. The data reveal widely varying trends, likely signifying divergent future evolution. Glacier velocities derived from 1960/70s declassified Corona satellite imagery revealed evidence of glacier deceleration for Thulagi and Lhotse Shar glaciers, but acceleration at Lower Barun Glacier following lake development. We used published modelled ice thickness data to show that upon reaching their maximum extents, Imja, Lower Barun and Thulagi lakes will contain, respectively, about 90 × 106 , 62 × 106 and 5 × 106 m3 of additional water compared to their 2018 volumes. Understanding lake–glacier interactions is essential to predict future glacier mass loss, lake formation and associated hazards.

Glacier Flow Dynamics of the Severnaya Zemlya Archipelago in Russian High Arctic Using the Differential SAR Interferometry (DInSAR) Technique

Glacier velocity is one of the most important parameters to understand glacier dynamics. The Severnaya Zemlya archipelago is host to many glaciers of which four major ice caps encompassing these glaciers are studied, namely, Academy of Sciences, Rusanov, Karpinsky, and University. In this study, we adopted the differential interferometric synthetic aperture radar (DInSAR) method utilizing ALOS-2/PALSAR-2 datasets, with a temporal resolution of 14 days. The observed maximum velocity for one of the marine-terminating glaciers in the Academy of Sciences Ice Cap was 72.24 cm/day (≈263 m/a). For the same glacier, an increment of 3.75 times the flow rate was observed in 23 years, compared to a previous study. This has been attributed to deformation in the bed topography of the glacier. Glaciers in other ice caps showed a comparatively lower surface velocity, ranging from 7.43 to 32.12 cm/day. For estimating the error value in velocity, we selected three ice-free regions and calculated the average value of their observed movement rates by considering the fact that there is zero movement for ice-free areas. The average value observed for the ice-free area was 0.09 cm/day, and we added this value in our uncertainty analysis. Further, it was observed that marine-terminating glaciers have a higher velocity than land-terminating glaciers. Such important observations were identified in this research, which are expected to facilitate future glacier velocity studies.

The micromorphology of glaciolacustrine varve sediments and their use for reconstructing palaeoglaciological and palaeoenvironmental change

Former glaciolacustrine systems are an important archive of palaeoglaciological, palaeoenvironmental and palaeoclimatic change. The annually laminated (varved) sediments that, under certain conditions, accumulate in former glacial lakes, offer a rare opportunity to reconstruct such changes (e.g. glacier advance and retreat cycles, glacier ablation trends, permafrost melt, nival events) at annual or even sub-annual temporal resolution. Data of this kind are desirable for their ability to guide and test numerical model simulations of glacier dynamics and palaeoclimatic change that occur over rapid time intervals, with implications for predicting future glacier response to climatic change, or the effects of weather and climate events on lake sedimentation. The most valuable records preserved in glaciolacustrine systems are continuous varved sequences formed in the distal parts of glacial lakes, where microscale lamination structures can accumulate relatively undisturbed. Technological advances, in the last few decades, have enabled improved characterisation of glaciolacustrine varve microfacies and the precise measurement of varve thickness at the micrometre scale. However, unlike in cognate fields (e.g. soil science), protocols for the robust and consistent description and interpretation of glaciolacustrine varve sediments are lacking. To fill this gap, and to provide a resource for future studies of glaciolacustrine varved sediments, this paper reviews the processes of sedimentation in glacial lake basins, and presents the defining microfacies characteristics of glacial varves using a descriptive protocol that uses consistent examination of grain size, sorting, structure, nature of contacts, development of plasmic fabrics and features such as dropgrains and intraclasts within individual laminations. These lamination types are then combined into lamination sets, whose structures can be interpreted as glaciolacustrine varves. Within this framework, we define five principal assemblages of glaciolacustrine varve microfacies which, if clearly identified in palaeoglaciolacustrine settings, enable more detailed palaeoenvironmental interpretations to be made. Finally, we discuss the utility and complexities of reconstructing the evolution of former glacial lake systems using varve microfacies and thickness datasets.

Two decades of glacier mass loss along the Andes

Andean glaciers are among the fastest shrinking and largest contributors to sea level rise on Earth. They also represent crucial water resources in many tropical and semi-arid mountain catchments. Yet the magnitude of the recent ice loss is still debated. Here we present Andean glacier mass changes (from 10° N to 56° S) between 2000 and 2018 using time series of digital elevation models derived from ASTER stereo images. The total mass change over this period was −22.9 ± 5.9 Gt yr−1 (−0.72 ± 0.22 m w.e. yr−1 (m w.e., metres of water equivalent)), with the most negative mass balances in the Patagonian Andes (−0.78 ± 0.25 m w.e. yr−1) and the Tropical Andes (−0.42 ± 0.24 m w.e. yr−1), compared to relatively moderate losses (−0.28 ± 0.18 m w.e. yr−1) in the Dry Andes. Subperiod analysis (2000–2009 versus 2009–2018) revealed a steady mass loss in the tropics and south of 45° S. Conversely, a shift from a slightly positive to a strongly negative mass balance was measured between 26 and 45° S. In the latter region, the drastic glacier loss in recent years coincides with the extremely dry conditions since 2010 and partially helped to mitigate the negative hydrological impacts of this severe and sustained drought. These results provide a comprehensive, high-resolution and multidecadal data set of recent Andes-wide glacier mass changes that constitutes a relevant basis for the calibration and validation of hydrological and glaciological models intended to project future glacier changes and their hydrological impacts. Glaciers in the Andes have lost about 23 Gt of mass per year between 2000 and 2018, with the fastest loss in Patagonia, according to time series of digital elevation models that are based on ASTER stereo images.

Quantifying the range of future glacier mass change projections caused by differences among observed past-climate datasets

Observed past climate data used as input in glacier models are expected to differ among datasets, particularly those for precipitation at high elevations. Differences among observed past climate datasets have not yet been described as a cause of uncertainty in projections of future changes in glacier mass, although uncertainty caused by varying future climate projections among general circulation models (GCMs) has often been discussed. Differences among observed past climate datasets are expected to propagate as uncertainty in future changes in glacier mass due to bias correction of GCMs and calibration of glacier models. We project ensemble future changes in the mass of glaciers in Asia through the year 2100 using a glacier model. A set of 18 combinations of inputs, including two observed past air temperature datasets, three observed past precipitation datasets, and future air temperature and precipitation projections from three GCMs were used. The uncertainty in projected changes in glacier mass was partitioned into three distinct sources: GCM uncertainty, observed past air temperature uncertainty, and observed past-precipitation uncertainty. Our findings indicate that, in addition to the differences in climate projections among GCMs, differences among observed past climate datasets propagate fractional uncertainties of about 15% into projected changes in glacier mass. The fractional uncertainty associated with observed past precipitation was 33–50% that of the observed air temperature. Differences in observed past air temperatures and precipitation did not propagate equally into the ultimate uncertainty of glacier mass projection when ablation was dominant.

New land in the Neotropics: a review of biotic community, ecosystem, and landscape transformations in the face of climate and glacier change

The high tropical Andes are rapidly changing due to climate change, leading to strong biotic community, ecosystem, and landscape transformations. While a wealth of glacier, water resource, and ecosystem-related research exists, an integrated perspective on the drivers and processes of glacier, landscape, and biota dynamics is currently missing. Here, we address this gap by presenting an interdisciplinary review that analyzes past, current, and potential future evidence on climate and glacier driven changes in landscape, ecosystem and biota at different spatial scales. We first review documented glacier changes and landscape evolution over past decades to millennia and analyze projected future glacier shrinkage until 2100 for two case studies in the tropical Andes. The effects of climate and glacier change on high Andean biota are then examined from paleoecological research and comparative gradient analyses to chronosequence and diachronic studies of vegetation dynamics. Our analysis indicates major twenty-first century landscape transformations with important socioecological implications which can be grouped into (i) formation of new lakes and drying of existing lakes as glaciers recede, (ii) alteration of hydrological dynamics in glacier-fed streams and high Andean wetlands, resulting in community composition changes, (iii) upward shifts of species and formation of new communities in deglaciated forefronts,(iv) potential loss of wetland ecosystems, and (v) eventual loss of alpine biota. We advocate strengthening an interdisciplinary research agenda with a strong policy formulation link that enables enhanced cross-sectorial cooperation and knowledge sharing, capacity building of relevant stakeholders, and a more active participation of both government agencies and social organizations.

Global Disappearance of Tropical Mountain Glaciers: Observations, Causes, and Challenges

This article reviews the current status of tropical glaciers in the South American Andes, East Africa, and Australasia by shedding light on past, present, and future glacier coverage in the tropics, the influence of global and regional climates on the tropical glaciers, the regional importance of these glaciers, and challenges of ongoing glacier recessions. While tropical glaciers have predominantly receded since the Little Ice Age, the rate of shrinkage has accelerated since the late 1970s as a result of climate changes. As a result, socio-ecological implications occur around ecosystem health, natural hazards, freshwater resources, agriculture, hydropower, mining, human and animal health, traditions and spirituality, and peace.

Calibrated Ice Thickness Estimate for All Glaciers in Austria

Knowledge on ice thickness distribution and total ice volume is a prerequisite for computing future glacier change for both glaciological and hydrological applications. Various ice thickness estimation methods have been developed but regional differences in fundamental model parameters are substantial. Parameters calibrated with measured data at specific points in time and space can vary when glacier geometry and dynamics change. This study contributes to a better understanding of accuracies and limitations of modelled ice thicknesses by taking advantage of a comprehensive data set of in-situ ice thickness measurements from 58 glaciers in the Austrian Alps and observed glacier geometries of three Austrian glacier inventories between 1969 and 2006. The field data are used to calibrate an established ice thickness model to calculate an improved ice thickness data set for the Austrian Alps. A cross-validation between modelled and measured point ice thickness indicates a model uncertainty of 25-31% of the measured point ice thickness. The comparison of the modelled and measured average glacier ice thickness revealed an underestimation of 5% with a mean standard deviation of 15% for the glaciers with calibration data. The apparent mass balance gradient, the primary model parameter accounting for the effects of surface mass balance distribution as well as ice flux, substantially decreases over time and has to be adjusted for each temporal increment to correctly reproduce observed ice thickness. This reflects the general stagnation of glaciers in Austria. We applied optimized apparent mass balance gradients to all glaciers of the latest Austrian glacier inventory and found a volume of 15.9 km³ for the year 2006. The ten largest glaciers account for 25% of area and 35% of total ice volume. An estimate based on mass balance measurements from nine glaciers indicates an additional volume loss of 3.5 ± 0.4 km³ (i.e. 22 ± 2.5%) until 2016. Relative changes in area and volume were largest at glaciers smaller than 1 km², and relative volume changes appear to be higher than relative area changes for all considered time periods.

A consensus estimate for the ice thickness distribution of all glaciers on Earth

Knowledge of the ice thickness distribution of the world’s glaciers is a fundamental prerequisite for a range of studies. Projections of future glacier change, estimates of the available freshwater resources or assessments of potential sea-level rise all need glacier ice thickness to be accurately constrained. Previous estimates of global glacier volumes are mostly based on scaling relations between glacier area and volume, and only one study provides global-scale information on the ice thickness distribution of individual glaciers. Here we use an ensemble of up to five models to provide a consensus estimate for the ice thickness distribution of all the about 215,000 glaciers outside the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets. The models use principles of ice flow dynamics to invert for ice thickness from surface characteristics. We find a total volume of 158 ± 41 × 103 km3, which is equivalent to 0.32 ± 0.08 m of sea-level change when the fraction of ice located below present-day sea level (roughly 15%) is subtracted. Our results indicate that High Mountain Asia hosts about 27% less glacier ice than previously suggested, and imply that the timing by which the region is expected to lose half of its present-day glacier area has to be moved forward by about one decade. The ice volume of glaciers outside the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets totals about 158,000 km3, with about 27% less ice in High Mountain Asia than thought, according to multiple models that estimate ice thickness from surface characteristics.

Robust uncertainty assessment of the spatio-temporal transferability of glacier mass and energy balance models

Abstract. Energy and mass-balance modelling of glaciers is a key tool for climate impact studies of future glacier behaviour. By incorporating many of the physical processes responsible for surface accumulation and ablation, they offer more insight than simpler statistical models and are believed to suffer less from problems of stationarity when applied under changing climate conditions. However, this view is challenged by the widespread use of parameterizations for some physical processes which introduces a statistical calibration step. We argue that the reported uncertainty in modelled mass balance (and associated energy flux components) are likely to be understated in modelling studies that do not use spatio-temporal cross-validation and use a single performance measure for model optimization. To demonstrate the importance of these principles, we present a rigorous sensitivity and uncertainty assessment workflow applied to a modelling study of two glaciers in the European Alps, extending classical best guess approaches. The procedure begins with a reduction of the model parameter space using a global sensitivity assessment that identifies the parameters to which the model responds most sensitively. We find that the model sensitivity to individual parameters varies considerably in space and time, indicating that a single stated model sensitivity value is unlikely to be realistic. The model is most sensitive to parameters related to snow albedo and vertical gradients of the meteorological forcing data. We then apply a Monte Carlo multi-objective optimization based on three performance measures: model bias and mean absolute deviation in the upper and lower glacier parts, with glaciological mass balance data measured at individual stake locations used as reference. This procedure generates an ensemble of optimal parameter solutions which are equally valid. The range of parameters associated with these ensemble members are used to estimate the cross-validated uncertainty of the model output and computed energy components. The parameter values for the optimal solutions vary widely, and considering longer calibration periods does not systematically result in better constrained parameter choices. The resulting mass balance uncertainties reach up to 1300 kg m−2, with the spatial and temporal transfer errors having the same order of magnitude. The uncertainty of surface energy flux components over the ensemble at the point scale reached up to 50 % of the computed flux. The largest absolute uncertainties originate from the short-wave radiation and the albedo parameterizations, followed by the turbulent fluxes. Our study highlights the need for due caution and realistic error quantification when applying such models to regional glacier modelling efforts, or for projections of glacier mass balance in climate settings that are substantially different from the conditions in which the model was optimized.

Managing risks and future options from new lakes in the deglaciating Andes of Peru: The example of the Vilcanota-Urubamba basin

Rapidly growing lakes in deglaciating mountain regions represent both: emerging risks and options for human livelihoods. In the Andes of Peru, seasonal water scarcity and Glacial Lake Outburst Floods (GLOF) pose a serious threat for highly exposed and vulnerable people. In addition, water demand is growing due to increasing irrigated agriculture, population and hydropower production. In this context, we assess current and future water risks and management options for the Vilcanota-Urubamba basin, Southern Peru. Therefore, the GLOF susceptibility of glacier lakes and the potential maximum reach of damaging flow were analysed. Eighteen out of 134 current and another six out of 20 future glacier lakes were identified as potentially highly susceptible to GLOF. A total of eight existing and one possible future lakes indicate very high risk potentials. Furthermore, a comprehensive surface water balance scheme for five selected subcatchments reveals that future river discharge could be reduced by some 2–11% (7–14%) until 2050 (2100). Particularly in headwaters and during dry seasons, glacier contribution representing roughly 15–25% to total streamflow is crucial and would substantially decrease to below 4–22% (1–3%) until 2050 (2100) with strong glacier shrinkage under intense warming (scenario RCP8.5). In the middle and lower basin, long-term water availability could be jeopardized by growing irrigated agriculture and hydropower capacity. Combining a GLOF and water shortage risk assessment, three key hotspots of current and future water risks were identified. In the context of the identified risks and complex intertwining of water users involving conflict potentials, robust adaptation planning is necessary within an integrative water and risk management framework. Therefore, it is crucial to incorporate ancestral and local knowledge for long-term management planning and implementation. This process should take place beyond temporarily limited governmental and project agency and strengthen broad acceptance of corresponding measures for adapting to hydroclimatic and socioeconomic changes.

Air Temperature Characteristics, Distribution, and Impact on Modeled Ablation for the South Patagonia Icefield

AbstractThe glaciers of Patagonia are the largest in South America and are shrinking rapidly, raising concerns about their contribution to sea level rise in the face of ongoing climatic change. However, modeling studies forecasting future glacier recession are limited by the scarcity of measured on‐glacier air temperatures and thus tend to use spatially and temporally constant lapse rates. This study presents 9 months of air temperature observations. The network consists of five automatic weather stations and three on‐glacier air temperature sensors installed on the South Patagonia Icefield along a transect at 48°45′S. Observed lapse rates are, overall, steeper on the east (−0.0072 °C/m) compared to the west (−0.0055 °C/m) and vary between the lower section (tongue, ablation zone) and the upper section (plateau, accumulation zone) of the glaciers. Warmer off‐glacier temperatures are found in the east compared to the west for similar elevations. However, on‐glacier observations suggest that the glacier cooling effect is higher in the east compared to the west. Through application of distributed temperature‐index and point‐scale energy balance models we show that modeled ablation rates vary by up to 60%, depending on the air temperature extrapolation method applied, and that melt is overestimated and sublimation is underestimated if the glacier cooling effect is not included in the distributed air temperature data. These results can improve current and future modeling efforts of the energy and mass balance of the whole South Patagonia Icefield.

Dynamical Drivers of the Local Wind Regime in a Himalayan Valley

AbstractUnderstanding the local valley wind regimes in the Hindu‐Kush Karakoram Himalaya is vital for future predictions of the glacio‐hydro‐meteorological system. Here the Weather Research and Forecasting model is employed at a resolution of 1 km to investigate the forces driving the local valley wind regime in a river basin in the Nepalese Himalaya, during July 2013 and January 2014. Comparing with observations shows that the model represents the diurnal cycle of the winds well, with strong daytime up‐valley winds and weak nighttime winds in both months. A momentum budget analysis of the model output shows that in the summer run the physical drivers of the near‐surface valley wind also have a clear diurnal cycle, and are dominated by the pressure gradient, advection, and turbulent vertical mixing, as well as a nonphysical numerical diffusion term. By contrast, the drivers in the winter run have a less consistent diurnal cycle. In both months, the pressure gradient, advection, numerical diffusion, and Coriolis terms dominate up to 5,000 m above the ground. The drivers are extremely variable over the valley, and also influenced by the presence of glaciers. When glaciers are removed from the model in the summer run, the wind continues further up the valley, indicating how the local valley winds might respond to future glacier shrinkage. The spatial variability of the drivers over both months is consistent with the complex topography in the basin, which must therefore be well represented in weather and regional climate models to generate accurate outputs.

Glacier changes and its effect on water resources in Urumqi River Basin, Tianshan Mountains, China, from 1964 to 2014

This work investigated changes in glaciers over the Urumqi River Basin from 1964 to 2014, and its role in the local water resource. Based on the glacier outlines on 1964, 2005 and 2014 derived from topographical maps and satellite images, the glaciers shrank 32.51% of the surface area between 1964 and 2005, and 12.12% between 2005 and 2014, respectively. The corresponding area reduction rate increased from 0.77%/a in 1964–2005 to 1.21%/a in 2005–2014, suggesting accelerated glacier retreat in recent decades. Our results showed that hydrological regime variability in both glacierized and non-glacierized catchments of the Urumqi River Basin was dependent on the current glacier conditions. Furthermore, glaciers with the area of 1–2 km2 contributed most to the water resources in this region, but their regulation effects to river runoff were weakening. Accordingly, the accelerated glacier retreat was a dangerous signal for local water resource, and the continuous future glacier monitoring under the global warming were desperately needed.

A consistent glacier inventory for Karakoram and Pamir derived from Landsat data: distribution of debris cover and mapping challenges

Abstract. Knowledge about the coverage and characteristics of glaciers in High Mountain Asia (HMA) is still incomplete and heterogeneous. However, several applications, such as modelling of past or future glacier development, run-off, or glacier volume, rely on the existence and accessibility of complete datasets. In particular, precise outlines of glacier extent are required to spatially constrain glacier-specific calculations such as length, area, and volume changes or flow velocities. As a contribution to the Randolph Glacier Inventory (RGI) and the Global Land Ice Measurements from Space (GLIMS) glacier database, we have produced a homogeneous inventory of the Pamir and the Karakoram mountain ranges using 28 Landsat TM and ETM+ scenes acquired around the year 2000. We applied a standardized method of automated digital glacier mapping and manual correction using coherence images from the Advanced Land Observing Satellite 1 (ALOS-1) Phased Array type L-band Synthetic Aperture Radar 1 (PALSAR-1) as an additional source of information; we then (i) separated the glacier complexes into individual glaciers using drainage divides derived by watershed analysis from the ASTER global digital elevation model version 2 (GDEM2) and (ii) separately delineated all debris-covered areas. Assessment of uncertainties was performed for debris-covered and clean-ice glacier parts using the buffer method and independent multiple digitizing of three glaciers representing key challenges such as shadows and debris cover. Indeed, along with seasonal snow at high elevations, shadow and debris cover represent the largest uncertainties in our final dataset. In total, we mapped more than 27 800 glaciers &gt;0.02 km2 covering an area of 35 520±1948 km2 and an elevation range from 2260 to 8600 m. Regional median glacier elevations vary from 4150 m (Pamir Alai) to almost 5400 m (Karakoram), which is largely due to differences in temperature and precipitation. Supraglacial debris covers an area of 3587±662 km2, i.e. 10 % of the total glacierized area. Larger glaciers have a higher share in debris-covered area (up to &gt;20 %), making it an important factor to be considered in subsequent applications (https://doi.org/10.1594/PANGAEA.894707).

Current And Future Glacier Vanishing And Associated Lake Growth In The Peruvian Andes

Current And Future Glacier Vanishing And Associated Lake Growth In The Peruvian Andes

Glacier Recession and the Response of Summer Streamflow in the Pacific Northwest United States, 1960–2099

AbstractThe Pacific Northwest is the most highly glacierized region in the conterminous United States (858 glaciers; 466 km2). These glaciers have displayed ubiquitous patterns of retreat since the 1980s mostly in response to warming air temperatures. Glacier melt provides water for downstream uses including agricultural water supply, hydroelectric power generation, and for ecological systems adapted to cold reliable streamflow. While changes in glacier area have been studied within the region over an extended period of time, the hydrologic consequences of these changes are not well defined. We applied a high‐resolution glacio‐hydrological model to predict glacier mass balance, glacier area, and river discharge for the period 1960–2099. Six river basins across the region were modeled to characterize the regional hydrological response to glacier change. Using these results, we generalized past and future glacier area change and discharge across the entire Pacific Northwest using a k‐means cluster analysis. Results show that the rate of regional glacier recession will increase, but the runoff from glacier melt and its relative contribution to streamflow display both positive and negative trends. In high‐elevation river basins enhanced glacier melt will buffer strong declines in seasonal snowpack and decreased late summer streamflow, before the glaciers become too small to support streamflow at historic levels later in the 21st century. Conversely, in lower‐elevation basins, smaller snowpack and the shrinkage of small glaciers result in continued reductions in summer streamflow.

Current and future glacier and lake assessment in the deglaciating Vilcanota-Urubamba basin, Peruvian Andes

Abstract Glacier shrinkage is a strong driver of change for mountain hydrology and landscape development and bears multiple risks as well as new options for human livelihoods. In the tropical Andes, current rates of glacier loss are investigated to some point but associated future extent of both vanishing glacier and forming lake areas and volumes are poorly explored. This study combines an analysis of current (1988–2016) and future (2050/2100) glacier and lake development in the Vilcanota-Urubamba basin (Cusco, Southern Peru). Total glacier area (volume) decreased by 37.3% (20.5%) from 226.1 km2 (8.122 km3) in 1988 to 141.7 km2 (6.457 km3) in 2016. Adjacent lakes increased in area (number) by 15.5% (18.3%) from 23.3 km2 (460 lakes) in 1988 to 26.9 km2 (544 lakes) in 2016 while corresponding lake volume has grown by 9.7% from 0.637 km3 to 0.699 km3, respectively. High spatiotemporal variability can be observed in the basin, with strongest glacier shrinkage in the lower lying northwest (Cordilleras Urubamba and Vilcabamba) and highest growth and lake extent in the Altiplano region of the southeast (Cordillera Vilcanota and Quelccaya ice cap). Future glacier areas could substantially decrease between 40.7% (RCP2.6) and 44.9% (RCP8.5) within the next decades (2031–2060) and between 41.4% and 92.7%, respectively, within this century (2071–2100). Hence, Andean landscapes would transform into mostly glacier-free areas with some remaining ice-covered summits over ~6000 m asl. and this would imply a loss of permanently stored water of several km3. Until the end of this century, important future lake areas could develop and continue to grow between 3.2% (RCP 2.6) and 6.0% (RCP8.5) with an associated volume increase of 0.032 km3 (4.6%) and 0.041 km3 (5.9%), respectively. Our current baseline and future projections suggest that a decrease of glacier shrinkage is also followed by a slowdown in lake formation and particularly volume growth which might have already developed or occur in the near-future. Under the depicted scenarios of change, strong emphasis needs to be promptly put on feasible water management and storage options as robust adaptation measures tackling high uncertainties, risks and complex hydroclimatic and socioenvironmental intertwining.

CHANGES IN THE SIZE AND CONDITION OF THE GLACIERS IN KAZAKHSTAN FOR THE LAST 60 YEARS (1955–2015)

In 1960–70s, a complete Inventory of the Kazakhstanglaciers had been prepared in the framework of the All-Union Glacier Inventory Program. All the morphometric parameters of the glaciers together with area and linear dimensions of them, and the absolute heights of characteristic points were determined from the 1:100 000 scale topographic maps and aerial photography of 1955–1956. In the late 1970‑s and in 1990, new inventories of glaciers of the Zailiysky and Dzungarian Alatau were prepared by the same procedure from the 1:25 000 scale topographic maps and aerial photography. Since the beginning of the 20th century, satellite images and GIS technologies were used for this purpose. In this work, the magnitudes and rate of changes in the number of glaciers, their areas and volumes, as well as their mass balance for 60 years (1955–2015) were obtained using data from different inventories. It was found that during the period under investigation the area of glaciation of Kazakhstandecreased from 1744.8 down to 1032.1 km 2 , i.е. by 712.7 km 2 . The relative decrease in the area of ice was 40.8% (0,68% per a year). The largest losses of the glacier areas took place on the northern slopes of the Zailiysky and Dzungarsky Alatau – 124.8 and 121.6 km 2 , respectively. The volume of ice decreased by more than 30 km 3 (42.5%). The loss of the ice mass over the whole glacier area is approximately equal to20 m in the water equivalent. Data on the glacier degradation inKazakhstan obtained over the past 60 years provide the basis for monitoring of future glacier changes under conditions of the present-day climate.