Future Extreme Weather Events Research Articles

Overexpression of the Selaginella lepidophylla bHLH transcription factor enhances water-use efficiency, growth, and development in Arabidopsis

Abiotic stresses have the greatest impact on the growth and productivity of crops, especially under current and future extreme weather events due to climate change. Thus, it is vital to explore novel strategies to improve crop plant abiotic stress tolerance to feed an ever-growing world population. Selaginella lepidophylla is a desiccation-tolerant spike moss with specialized adaptations that allow it to tolerate water loss down to 4% relative water content. A candidate basic helix-loop-helix (bHLH) transcription factor was highly expressed at 4% relative water content in S. lepidophylla (SlbHLH). This SlbHLH gene was codon-optimized (SlbHLHopt) and overexpressed in Arabidopsis for functional characterization. Overexpression of the SlbHLHopt gene not only significantly increased plant growth, development, and integrated water-use efficiency, but also significantly increased seed germination and green cotyledon emergence rates under water-deficit stress and salt stress conditions. Under a 150 mM NaCl salt stress condition, SlbHLHopt-overexpressing lines increased primary root length, the number of lateral roots, and fresh and dry biomass at the seedling stage compared to control lines. Interestingly, SlbHLHopt-overexpressing lines also have significantly higher flavonoid content. Altogether, these results suggest that SlbHLH functions as an important regulator of plant growth, development, abiotic stress tolerance, and water-use efficiency.

Energy poverty in pandemic times: Fine-tuning emergency measures for better future responses to extreme events in Spain

Energy poverty has been exacerbated by the COVID-19 pandemic and the economic crisis it triggered. Spain, one of the first countries affected by the outbreak, introduced several measures to protect energy consumers during the initial lockdown and to provide them with economic relief (including a disconnection ban and the introduction of new categories of beneficiaries for its energy assistance programmes). This article presents a critical assessment of these interventions, based on the regulatory theory and a review of international experiences. It shows how emergency measures should rely on a robust but flexible targeting strategy and be supported by appropriate financing; it also sheds light on the importance of information campaigns that allow the aid to reach more households, improving the effectiveness of the intervention. The reflections and recommendations presented in this article may help improve the design of emergency measures during future health crises or extreme weather events.

“Disasters threaten livelihoods, and people cope, adapt and make transformational changes”: Community resilience and livelihoods reconstruction in coastal communities of Bangladesh

In the face of serious disruptions to local livelihoods and asset bases by extreme climatic events, it is paramount to reconstruct but also to transform and diversify livelihoods. However, the literature on these aspects is scant. In this paper, we posit that two frameworks, namely the livelihood strategy approach and community resilience thinking, are useful tools for effectively analyzing post-disaster transformational changes. In the empirical context of coastal communities of Bangladesh, our study specifically examines the changes experienced in livelihood assets due to Cyclones Sidr and Aila. Two coastal communities, namely Nilganj and Dhulasar Unions in the Kalapara Upazila of Patuakhali District, were selected to analyze the strategies used by local people to cope with and adapt to cyclone and storm surge disaster-shocks. Primary data were collected from three sources: a socioeconomic survey of 300 households, eight focus group discussions, and 20 key informant interviews. Our findings reveal that a significant number of cyclone victims were displaced from their homes by recent severe cyclones, changed their occupations -- both intra- and intersectorally -- and confronted increased consumption and social costs. We observed significant differences in impacts between farmers and those engaged in other occupations, such as fishing, with the latter being far more likely to change occupation post-disaster. The study uncovered significant evidence that local people are learning to live with change and uncertainty by nurturing and combining various types of knowledge and social memory, generating diversified livelihood options, and self-organizing to enhance their resilience to future extreme weather events.

Climate Change and Human Well-Being in the 2020s: Lessons From 2020.

Behind the coronavirus headlines the year 2020 set multiple extreme weather records, including unprecedented wildfires in Australia and California, massive flooding in China, and back-to-back hurricanes in Central America. The impacts on the well-being of local populations have been devastating. We reviewed these extreme weather events, together with the year's newly published climate and health science reports, and identified three important themes for building health resilience in the decade ahead: (1) preparing for greater magnitude and intensity of climate hazards, extreme events, and population health impacts; (2) better anticipating cascading and compound impacts on population well-being, particularly for the most vulnerable; and (3) identifying appropriate, effective preparedness tools and strategies. While decarbonizing the economy is the urgent goal to protect both human and planetary health from a changing climate, 2020 demonstrates that recognizing the likely magnitude and complexity of future extreme weather events, and preparing local public health agencies and communities with the knowledge and tools to respond to them, will be essential in this critical decade.

On the path of evictions and invisibilization: Poor Roma facing climate vulnerability

This paper joins the growing scholarly concern for the sharpening of social and environmental inequalities in European cities, particularly those generated in Eastern Europe by evictions of poor Roma from inner-city areas and by the invisibilization of their extreme conditions. We argue that these processes – evictions and invisibilizations – create a heightened vulnerability to climate change impacts for these individuals. The paper uses secondary survey data on compact Roma groups in Romania and analyses qualitative and cartographic information collected by the authors (2019) in two mid-sized cities in Romania to flesh out the particular slum ecologies that emerge following evictions. The focus is also on the subtle processes of invisibilization that render displaced Roma vulnerable and rob them of the “right to the city” in terms of climate change adaptation. Our finding is that evicted Roma experience innumerable, “routine” weather-related impacts, such as floods, storms or cold. By exploring Roma's heightened exposure, sensitivity and reduced adaptive capacity, we show how these impacts increase their vulnerability to future extreme weather events. These findings are indicative of a broader process of fragmentation taking place in urban areas throughout Eastern Europe, which render invisible some very real barriers to climate change adaptation.

Farmer Preparedness for Building Resilient Agri-Food Systems: Lessons From the 2015/2016 El Niño Drought in Malawi

Across sub-Saharan Africa, climate change is leading to increasingly erratic weather patterns that challenge farming practices, particularly for smallholder farmers. Preparing farmers for these changes and increasing their resilience to extreme weather events is critical for food security in areas where populations are increasing. The El Niño event of 2015/16 led to drought conditions in Malawi which are expected to become more normal in the future. This resulted in widespread crop failure and the need for external food aid. The experiences of Malawian farmers during this time creates an opportunity to identify areas where adaptations in land management practices as part of resilience building initiatives can prepare farmers for future climates. This paper presents results of household surveys and interviews of 201 farmers from a case study in southern Malawi. Half of the farmers surveyed practice Conservation Agriculture (CA), a Climate Smart Agriculture technology that increased resilience to this drought event. The majority of households relied on agriculture for all their livelihood streams, indicating that diversification away from sole dependence on agriculture would increase resilience. Our study shows that poorer, female farmers are less likely to practice CA than wealthier male farmers. Results also illustrate that while farmers had access to seasonal weather forecasts, a key tool to guide land preparation and planting, they remained reluctant to believe them or to amend cropping or land management practices. Agricultural extension services within Malawi can play a vital role in preparing farmers for future extreme weather events and ensuring forecast communication link to predicted agricultural impacts and land management actions for building resilience into agricultural systems. Extension services need to focus on supporting poorer female farmers to adopt CA practices and providing farmers with the tools and knowledge to respond effectively to seasonal and sub-seasonal climate information.

Nitrate isotopic composition of sequential Hurricane Harvey wet deposition: Low latitude NOx sources and oxidation chemistry

Abstract Chemical characterization of hurricane wet deposition is integral to understanding how future extreme weather events will impact coastal biogeochemical cycles. Sequential Hurricane Harvey wet deposition samples (n = 7 over 20.5 h) were collected in southeastern Texas, U.S. and the isotopic composition of nitrate and water (δ15N–NO3-, δ18O–NO3- and δ18O–H2O, δ2H–H2O) and the concentrations of ammonium, anions, and dissolved organic carbon were measured. Areas of peak deposition (~1500 mm) received up to 75% of the region's typical average annual inorganic nitrogen wet deposition. After δ15N–NO3- values were corrected for potential fractionation effects, contributions of lightning, natural gas combustion, vehicle exhaust and biogenic sources to NO3− in wet deposition (43.7 ± 31.2%, 7.8 ± 6.1%, 42.6 ± 27.5% and 5.9 ± 5.3%, respectively) were determined using a Bayesian isotope mixing model. Results highlight the significance of natural-sourced nitrogen being deposited to terrestrial systems during hurricane events. The relatively low δ18O–NO3- (36.1 ± 3.0‰) emphasized the role played by hydroxyl and peroxy radicals in HNO3 formation during the tropical summer. An established global NOx oxidation model in combination with δ18O–NO3- approximates the significance of RO2 vs O3 oxidation of NO during the daytime (36.0% vs 64.0%, respectively) and results provide valuable insight to low-latitude atmospheric chemistry.

Decision makers’ barriers to climate and extreme weather adaptation: a study of North Atlantic high- and medium-use seaports

Decision-making barriers challenge port administrators to adapt and build resilience to natural hazards. Heavy rains, storms, sea level rise (SLR), and extreme heat can damage the critical coastal infrastructure upon which coastal communities depend. There is limited understanding of what impedes port decision makers from investing resources in climate and extreme weather adaptations. Through semi-structured interviews of 30 port directors/managers, environmental specialists, and safety planners at 15 medium- and high-use ports of the U.S. North Atlantic, this paper contributes a typology of seven key adaptation barriers. We measured shared knowledge of the identified barriers using a cultural consensus model (CCM). Knowledge of the barriers that prevent or delay resilience investments can help the decision makers direct their resources to help reduce coastal vulnerability and support safe and sustainable operations of U.S. ports. Such actions also serve to help prepare the marine transportation system for future climate and extreme weather events.

DeCodeR framework: data collection and coding for demands and resources appraisal in extreme weather events (DeCodeR framework: recogida de datos y codificación de exigencias y evaluación de recursos en fenómenos climáticos extremos)

ABSTRACTWith the increased frequency, intensity and duration of extreme weather events potentiated by climate change, a better understanding of social systems’ resilience and adaptation strategies to these has been established as a research priority at the individual and community levels. Because such events have the potential to interfere with individuals’ current needs and goals, this motivates them to evaluate the demands posed by the event and the available resources to cope with them. This, in turn, greatly determines the implemented coping strategies’ effectiveness. Exploring these demands and resources appraisals by coding their indicators and decoding their functions is an important step in promoting resilience and adaptation strategies, in face of future extreme weather events. As a contribution, we propose a theory-driven data collection and coding framework (DeCodeR) for analysing such appraisals, grounded on the Biopsychosocial Model of Challenge and Threat Appraisals (BPS Model). This framework was pilot tested with a sample of 159 participants (33 male; 126 female), and further specified in terms of sub-categories of Demands (Danger; Effort; Uncertainty) and Resources (Knowledge, Skills and Abilities; Dispositions; External Support) that may emerge in extreme weather events. Policymakers, practitioners and researchers can capitalize on this work and develop evidence-based strategies to promote human resilience and adaptation to extreme weather events, based on identified resources/demands. This can be achieved by enhancing individual’s personal and social/community resources to cope with the demands posed by present and future events.

Measuring Corporate Weather Exposure using Computational Linguistics

The FASB and IFRS Foundation's International Sustainability Standards Board have called for measuring individual firms' exposure to weather, a fundamentally amorphous concept, as a first step toward quantifying the impact of environmental factors on financial reporting. This study builds a large-scale measure of individual firm exposure to weather using linguistic analysis of annual reports. Preliminary analyses suggest that weather is a determinant of our measure: e.g., it increases significantly after the firm gets hit by a severe storm. Despite being constructed from largely backward-looking mandated reports, our measure is forward looking in that it can predict variation in returns around future extreme weather events. Exposure to our measure is also priced as a risk factor, further establishing its forward-looking nature systematically in the cross-section. Our measure appears to reasonably capture a firm's business exposure to weather, thus showcasing the power of accounting to measure the economic impact of ESG factors.

Assessing climate change adaptation strategies—the case of drought and heat wave in the French nuclear sector

Nuclear energy is a very important component of overall power supply in France. If the effects of future extreme weather events or climate shifts are not addressed, energy systems will be highly vulnerable to extreme weather events or shifts in weather patterns, such as changes in precipitation. Because of the deep uncertainties involved in climate projections and response strategies, any strategy implementation should perform adequately regardless of which scenario actually materialises. In this paper, we analyse the effects of drought and heat wave in the French nuclear energy sector using the Strategy Robustness Visualisation Method. The key feature of the method is the modelling of uncertainty of the quantitative indicators by (min, max) values plotted on radar plots such that each strategy option’s performance can be visually inspected for robustness. The method can be utilised as a “module” of its own in different uncertainty management approaches. Based on the case study, the presented adaptation strategies “Maintaining industrial production and final demand” and “Smart grid infrastructure” were more robust than the “No planned or automatic adaptation”.

Adapting railways to provide resilience and sustainability

The reality of anthropogenic climate change is increasingly apparent, with significant implications for railway and other infrastructure networks. As a transport mode with a relatively small environmental impact, rail has a potentially valuable role to play in climate change mitigation. However, this potential can be realised only if railways are adapted to withstand the effects of the increasingly extreme weather associated with climate change. This requirement is widely acknowledged by governments and the railway industry, and the required responses to the specific potential effects of climate change are well known and understood. However, a review of the literature indicates a need for a decision support system to prioritise the interventions required for the adaptation in the face of uncertainty about both the frequency and scale of future extreme weather events and the nature and the levels of future passenger and freight traffic on the railways. This paper proposes a seven-step framework for the classification of the UK railway network, the assessment of the economic value of traffic using the network (and thus the economic costs of weather-related disruption), the identification of appropriate remedial measures and their costs and thus the prioritisation of these measures by means of cost–benefit analysis.

Czynniki warunkujące preferencje i działania samorządów gminnych w Polsce w zakresie łagodzenia i adaptacji do zmian klimatycznych

In the article we analyze types and determinants of local climate policies undertaken by Polish communes. We use a distinction between adaptation and mitigation policies. Our study is based on a survey on all Polish communes conducted in 2014 (response rate 51%). The research has revealed a far-reaching coherence of situation in Polish and foreign communes (when compared to foreign literature). Polish communes declare most frequently mitigation activities, which we explain by national and EU support. Obligation for local plans of low emission economy, together with financial incentives for this goal has led to a local focus being placed on air quality. Among the factors explaining differentiation in locally undertaken actions, the most important one is size (population) of a commune (which influences e.g. the competences of local administration). In the case of adaptation, the perceived vulnerability of a commune (experience of past and expectation of future extreme weather events related to water) is also important. Other factors, like the affluence of municipality a commune, has turned out to have secondary importance, determined by size. When looking at determinants of the will to spend more money on mitigation than adaptation, we have discovered that it depends on the conviction that human activity influences climate changes and that local governments should undertake climate policies.

Assessing sea level-rise risks to coastal floodplains in the Kakadu Region, northern Australia, using a tidally driven hydrodynamic model

The low-lying coastal floodplains of the Kakadu Region in tropical northern Australia encompass World Heritage Kakadu National Park and are highly vulnerable to future sea level-rise (SLR) and extreme weather events, yet there are no modelling tools to assess potential impacts of saltwater inundation (SWI) on freshwater ecosystems and to evaluate future management options. A tidally driven hydrodynamic model was developed to simulate the frequency and extent of SWI in the Kakadu Region for the following four mean SLR scenarios: 0m (present-day, 2013); 0.14m (2030); 0.70m (2070); and 1.1m (2100). Simulations were undertaken at 60-m spatial resolution using October dry-season tides, and a digital elevation model (0.10-m vertical resolution) constructed from LiDAR point cloud data was used to resolve coastal and river-system terrains. Model outputs (maximum extent and frequency of SWI) were used to assess potential loss of freshwater floodplains for each scenario at a park-wide scale and for three case-study areas that differ in tidal influence. Results show little loss by 2030 (–3%), a possible threshold effect by 2070 (–42%) and ameliorating after 2100 (–65%). Although freshwater floodplains further from the coast showed least exposure to simulated SLR, indicating potential refuge areas, all floodplains on Kakadu will be exposed to SWI by 2132 (+117 years).

A Decision Support System for the Resilience of Critical Transport Infrastructure to Extreme Weather Events

Resilience of critical transport infrastructure to extreme weather events, such as heavy rainfall, drought or icing, is one of the most demanding challenges for both government and society. Extreme weather is a phenomenon that causes threats to the well-functioning of the infrastructure. The impacts of various levels of extreme weather on the infrastructure varies throughout Europe. These impacts are witnessed through changes in seasons and extreme temperatures, humidity, extreme or prolonged precipitation or drought, extreme wind, and thunderstorms. The extreme weather events may result in disasters such as flooding, drought, ice formation or wild fires. These present a range of challenges to the operational resilience of critical transport infrastructure.The economic and societal relevance of the dependency and resilience of critical transport infrastructure is obvious: infrastructure malfunctions and outages can have far reaching consequences and impacts on economy and society. The cost of developing and maintaining critical transport infrastructure is high if they are expected to have a realistic functional and economic life (i.e. 50+ years). Hence, future extreme weather events have to be taken into account when considering protection measures, mitigation measures and adaption measures to reflect actual and predicted instances of critical transport infrastructure failures.The INTACT project, which is co-financed by the European Commission, addresses these challenges and brings together innovative and cutting edge knowledge and experience in Europe. It develops and demonstrates best practices in engineering, materials, construction, planning and designing protective measures as well as crisis response and recovery capabilities. All this will culminate in a decision support system that facilitates cross-disciplinary and cross-border data sharing and provides for a forum for evidence-based policy formulation.This paper provides some first results of the project and an outlook to the final result, the ‘INTACT Wiki’, a decision support system for the resilience of critical infrastructure to extreme weather events.

Adaptation of Transport Infrastructures and Networks to Climate Change

Climate, with no remaining scientific uncertainties is changing. First impacts of climate change are already felt in several fields, such as transport energy, agriculture and are expected to increase in the near future. Notably, transport networks are essential for economy and society: their adaptation is necessary. Therefore, the French National Climate Change Adaptation Plan has defined actions in its field “transport infrastructures and systems”. Transversal working groups with experts of various transport infrastructures were established in 2011 and have developed a strong cooperation to address this issue. They published: i) a thorough review of technical, regulatory and normative standards that require an update to adapt construction, maintenance and operation of infrastructures and networks to climate trends and ii) a risk assessment framework to prevent future extreme weather events on transport. Aim of this paper is to present methodologies and results of both publications.

A socio-ecological analysis of hospital resilience to extreme weather events

Hospitals play a critical role in helping communities respond effectively to extreme weather events (EWEs). Despite predictions of more EWEs, little is known about the process by which hospital infrastructure resilience to such events can be built. Using Gunderson and Holling’s Adaptive Cycle, a new theoretical perspective based on socio-ecological resilience theory is provided to understand this process. Data were collected using semi-structured interviews, observations of disaster drills and disaster planning meetings, as well as additional documentary analysis of past incident reports. The research findings were then refined and validated in a focus group meeting with respondents. The findings indicate that there are significant organizational barriers which prevent facilities managers improving the resilience of hospital facilities to future EWEs. It was found that the disaster planning process is ad hoc and non-inclusive, focused on man-made disasters and compliance driven, top-down approach, under-resourced and is driven by a general ignorance of the importance of resilient-built facilities to health care delivery during an EWE. It is concluded that to produce more resilient hospital infrastructure, there needs to be a more well-resourced, integrated and collaborative approach to disaster management planning which enables health facilities managers to play a more central role in disaster planning decisions. There also need to be better systems, technologies and training implemented to manage information about health infrastructure performance before, during and after EWEs.

Evaluating vulnerability of critical state park infrastructure caused by extreme weather events: A tennessee application

Infrastructure systems, including public lands managed by park authorities, are central to the economic, environmental, and cultural functioning of our society. Understanding the likelihood and impacts to system components from extreme weather events can be fundamental to prudent strategic, operational and financial decision making. This article describes the development and implementation of a methodology for evaluating the vulnerability of various types of critically identified infrastructure located within the Tennessee State Parks system to future extreme weather events. The methodology calculates a vulnerability score for each combination of type of infrastructure and weather event based on historical and anticipated weather events, and infrastructure performance when exposed to these events. It was found that hydrologic events, strong thunderstorm winds, and winter storms are the extreme weather events that pose the greatest risk to critical infrastructure within Tennessee State Parks. Locations that are particularly vulnerable to extreme weather events include Shelby, Wilson, Dickson, Pickett, Carter, Putnam, Hamilton, Sullivan and Union counties. The approach described in this article is applicable to other park systems as well as public sector assets in general.

Susceptibility assessment of urban tree species in Cambridge, MA, from future climatic extremes

The City of Cambridge, Massachusetts, recognizes the value of the city’s urban forest in terms of air quality, lower wind speeds, esthetics, energy conservation, reduced noise pollution, habitat value, decreased runoff, and bolstering of local businesses and property values. The density, composition, and location of street and city park trees comprising the urban forest will be influenced by future climate-driven extreme weather events. In this study, we have developed an approach for assessing impacts of multiple extreme weather scenarios likely to become more frequent under climate change and subsequently influence the composition of street and park trees. This potential for loss of trees as a result of one (or more) of these climate-related extreme weather events is considered to be one indicator of the susceptibility of Cambridge’s urban forest to climate-related weather events. The scenarios considered were a hurricane/tropical storm similar to tropical storm Sandy in 2012, heat stress, snow or ice loading (e.g., loss of tree limbs), Asian longhorn beetle or emerald ash borer infestations, and the cumulative effect from the addition of all these scenarios. The literature was used to assess the sensitivity of tree species to each threat and determine the anticipated loss of individuals from each species. The results are a reasonable indication of the more tolerant tree species in Cambridge and their locations. This assessment of susceptibility can inform proactive management of the urban forest.

Quantifying Changes in Extreme Weather Events in Response to Warmer Global Temperature

ABSTRACTGlobal warming is expected to affect both the frequency and severity of extreme weather events, though projections of the response of these events to climate warming remain highly uncertain. The range of changes reported in the climate modelling literature is very large, sometimes leading to contradictory results for a given extreme weather event. Much of this uncertainty stems from the incomplete understanding of the physics of extreme weather processes, the lack of representation of mesoscale processes in coarse-resolution climate models, and the effect of natural climate variability at multi-decadal time scales. However, some of the spread in results originates simply from the variety of scenarios for future climate change used to drive climate model simulations, which hampers the ability to make generalizations about predicted changes in extreme weather events. In this study, we present a meta-analysis of the literature on projected future extreme weather events in order to quantify expected changes in weather extremes as a function of a common metric of global mean temperature increases. We find that many extreme weather events are likely to be significantly affected by global warming. In particular, our analysis indicates that the overall frequency of global tropical cyclones could decrease with global warming but that the intensity of these storms, as well as the frequency of the most intense cyclones could increase, particularly in the northwestern Pacific basin. We also found increases in the intensity of South Asian monsoonal rainfall, the frequency of global heavy precipitation events, the number of North American severe thunderstorm days, North American drought conditions, and European heatwaves, with rising global mean temperatures. In addition, the periodicity of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation may decrease, which could, in itself, influence extreme weather frequency in many areas of the climate system.