Future Energy Mix Research Articles

Nuclear energy: An option to keep open?

World population continues to grow at an alarming rate, and with it grows energy demand, much of which will be filled increasingly by the use of electricity. This burgeoning demand must not be met at the cost of the environment. No form of electricity generation is without environmental impacts, and no single form of electricity generation will suit every situation. Nuclear energy can help to meet the world's future electricity demand without contributing to the burden of greenhouse gases, and should not be neglected as a component of the future energy mix.

Economic, safety and environmental prospects of fusion reactors

Controlled fusion energy is one of the long term, non-fossil energy sources available to mankind. It has the potential of significant advantages over fission nuclear power in that the consequences of severe accidents are predicted to be less and the radioactive waste burden is calculated to be smaller. Fusion can be an important ingredient in the future world energy mix and can be part of an ‘insurance policy’ energy strategy to develop new sources as a hedge against environmental, supply or political difficulties connected with the use of fossil fuel and present-day nuclear power. Progress in fusion reactor technology and design is described for both magnetic and inertial fusion energy systems. The projected economic prospects show that fusion will be capital intensive, and the historical trend is towards greater mass utilization efficiency and more competitive costs. Recent studies emphasizing safety and environmental advantages show that the competitive potential of fusion can be further enhanced by specific choices of materials and design. The safety and environmental prospects of fusion appear to exceed substantially those of advanced fission and coal. For example, the level of radioactivity in a low activation fusion reactor at 1 year and at 100 years after shutdown is calculated to be about one-millionth of the radioactivity in a fission reactor of the same power. Likewise, the maximum plausible dose predicted at the site boundary in the case of a low activation fusion reactor is estimated to be between 100 and 500 times smaller than that estimated for a fission power plant. Clearly, a significant and directed technology effort is necessary to achieve these advantages. Typical parameters have been established for magnetic fusion energy reactors, and a tokamak at moderately high magnetic field (about 7 T on axis) in the first regime of MHD stability (β ≤ 3.5 I/aB) is closest to present experimental achievement. Further improvements of the economic and technological performance of the tokamak are possible through the following achievements: higher magnetic fields to lower the required plasma current and reactor size; higher values of the plasma beta, including reaching the second stable MHD regime, to lower the requirements on field and plasma current; and more efficient techniques to drive the plasma current. In addition, alternative, non-tokamak magnetic fusion approaches may offer substantive economic and operational benefits, although at present these concepts must be projected from a less developed physics base. For inertial fusion energy, reactor studies are at an earlier stage, but the essential requirements are a high efficiency (≥ 10%) repetitively pulsed pellet driver capable of delivering up to 10 MJ of energy on target, targets capable of an energy gain (ratio of energy produced to energy on target) of about 100, reactor chambers capable of absorbing the energy released per shot at conditions consistent with power generation, and effective means of isolating the target chamber and driver system.

The Perplexing Political Economy of Energy: An Introduction, Overview and Opinion

While energy no longer has a position of national priority, it continues to be a problem because of rising world energy prices and the interwoven nature of energy economics with the infrastructure of industrialized economies. The West is experiencing a transition from heavy to service industries although the energy costs of manufacturing have pushed the problem underground. Policy failures in removing subsidies continues the distortion of market signals. In an overview of symposium papers the author notes institutional resistance and the record of conservation strategies in the effort to reduce US dependence on oil. He also touches on the paradox and institutional inertia in the case of nuclear power. While historically the energy realm has gone further than other scientific regions in terms of pushing research toward development and demonstration, gaps in the commercial cycle remain. Some of the authors examine the need for a more creative plan for future energy mix strategies. 13 references.

The rise and fall of nuclear power in the United States and the limits of regulation

This paper documents the rapid growth of nuclear power in the United States and its subsequent decline in the late 1970s. It demonstrates that the increase in numbers of new orders for nuclear plants created pressures for additional licensing complexity to insure safety and provide public intervenors with opportunities to participate in the regulatory process. The resulting protraction of the licensing process combined with increasing political opposition to nuclear power caused construction delays and bureaucratic bottlenecks at a time when soaring interest rates and double-digit inflation have pushed the cost of building new facilities out of the reach of the financially battered utility industry. Together with a downturn in demand for electricity and increasing uncertainty over nuclear power, no reactor orders have been placed since late 1978. It is argued that renewed growth of nuclear power in the United States is unlikely, especially in a regulatory environment which fosters increased costs of electricity to consumers and a simultaneous abrogation of the economies of scale. The consequences of the impending atrophication of the nuclear industry in America and its effects on future energy mixes and long-term national interests must be considered in future nuclear policies and reforms.

Fossil fuel resources and their impacts on environment and climate

This paper reviews the physical impacts of fossil fuel use on the environment and climate system. Such an analysis involves the assessment of the future world fossil fuel resources and their relative share in a future global energy mix. The specific environmental impacts are shown for conventional and unconventional coal, oil and gas production and combustion. The impact on climate is demonstrated for the release of heat, particles and CO 2. The future impact of CO 2 on climate, which may be quite serious and potentionally irreversible, cannot be predicted with confidence at this time. Rough estimates based on a world energy model, a carbon cycle model and a climate model show that for a variety of energy supply scenarios the global average temperature change above the present level around 2030 may fall between 0·5 and 4°C with the most probable value near to 1°C—and this would not be negligible. Autothermal synthetic fuel production may result in significant CO 2 increases, whereas allothermal methods may result in substantial CO 2 reductions. There are no CO 2 emissions if hydrogen is used as a direct energy carrier. In the face of the present uncertainties a flexible low-risk energy-CO 2-climate policy is suggested which would: 1. (a) encourage the more efficient end use of energy; 2. (b) promote the expeditious development of energy sources that add little or no CO 2 to the atmosphere, thereby permitting one to keep the global fossil fuel use, and hence CO 2 emission, at the present level.

Estimation of Uncertainty in Coal Resources: ABSTRACT

The use of alternate energy sources to supplement dwindling domestic petroleum resources will increase in the future. Among alternate resources, coal will contribute greatly to the future energy mix. Official estimates of the United States coal resources published during the past 15 years range from less than 1.7 to as much as 3.9-trillion short tons (1.5 to 3.5-trillion metric tons). These differences imply that a high degree of uncertainty exists in resource assessment. A comparison of variability in coal resource estimates in areas of different ancient depositional environments is examined in an attempt to utilize depositional systems for improved coal resource estimates. The Texas Gulf Coast basin was chosen to develop the methodology of resource evaluation because it exhibits a full range of ancient depositional environments. Two lignite deposits are evaluated, one from the alluvial plain setting of the Wilcox Group in east Texas and the other from the delta plain setting of the Jackson Group in east Texas. Important sources of uncertainty in resource estimation include variability of seam thickness and areal distribution. To test the degree of uncertainty caused by variations in seam thickness, the numbers of boreholes considered in each lignite deposit are reduced and resources are calculated for each reduction in data. Classical statistical methods are used to determine the number of boreholes required to obtain resource estimates of individual seams within a given confidence interval and specified conditions. Geostatistics (variograms and kriging) are used to measure variability in resource estimates. These studies show that the minimum number of boreholes required to characterize coal resources within an accuracy of 20% for example, is substantially less than might be expected intuitively, and that the degree of assuredness depends on the coefficient of variation of the data analyzed. End_of_Article - Last_Page 1678------------

El futuro energético de Japón: Entre el regreso a la senda nuclear y el giro hacia las renovables.

After the triple disaster of 11 March 2011, Japan is at an energy crossroad. In the short and medium run it depends on fossil fuel imports to ensure its energy security, but the long term will be determined by the decisions taken at present. For Japan energy security is a national security challenge, as stated in its National Security Strategy. The article reviews the Japanese nuclear path, studies the factors shaping the Japanese electricity market and analyzes the current energy situation. Moreover, it also assesses the principles that have marked Japan’s energy policy and the two last Strategic Energy Plans -one prior to Fukushima and the other after it- before tackling the debate on the optimal future energy mix that Japan should adopt to meet its energy security trilemma, marked by its environmental commitment.

A Look Ahead at Synthetic Hydrocarbon Technology

Abstract Fuels to produce energy are vital to all residents of the United States. Although there are no present apparent shortages of fossil fuels, consideration of the long-term energy needs of the nation leads to the conclusion that fuels, from supplementary sources may soon begin to enter into the domestic energy mix. The present impetus of oil shale research and development and recent announcements by Secretary of the Interior Stuart Udall pertaining to the management of ail shale lands tend to support earlier predictions of the U. S. Bureau of Mines that there will be commercial production of shale oil within the next 10 years. It is probable that liquid and gaseous fuels from coal will begin to enter the market simultaneously with, or not much later than, shale oil. The limited knowledge of the total resources of domestic tar sand does not permit good predictions of when fuels from tar sands will become commercially significant. Introduction Whether we have occasion to think of it or not, an adequate and economic supply of energy fuels is vital to each of us. It is interesting to look ahead at the way in which fuels from supplementary sources will begin to enter into the energy mix to help meet the long-term national energy needs. From 1947 to 1965, the average annual rate of growth of energy consumption was 2.7 percent, with total energy demand in 1965 being equivalent to 54 quadrillion Btu's. During this short period of 18 years, the cumulative output of coal in the U.S. was 9.6 billion tons; natural gas, 193.5 trillion cu ft; and crude oil, 45.9 billion bbl. During the next decade and a half the nation's energy requirements are expected to grow at an average rate of 3.3 percent yearly, with consumption of energy expected to reach an annual rate of about 88 quadrillion Btu's by 1980, or 63 percent over the 1965 level. There is no doubt of the ability of the U. S. to meet this vast expansion in energy demand. Through technology, we have evolved the means of responding to cost and demand changes in our energy industries-either by effecting cost reductions and savings in the production of existing resources, or by introducing new and lower-cost substitutes or supplemental sources. The problems with which we are mainly concerned are the future mix of energy resources and what the demands will be that are made on particular energy industries to supply these needs. Much of the demand for energy resources - is generated by changing conditions in the energy markets and the various forms that primary energy resources are required to assume in these markets. Closely related to our concern with the composition of the future energy mix is whether technological changes will continue to overcome the effects of cost-increasing forces that are plaguing, to an increasing degree, some of our key fossil fuel industries. Method of Projection For purposes of planning and programming, USBM has projected the energy-resource mix for the period 1966-1980. For these projections we used the simplified assumptions that there would be an adequate supply of all domestic energy resources to meet projected demand at constant costs or lower, and that the net trade in energy resources during the forecast period would remain in the same relation to demand as it was in 1965. Under these assumptions we have projected the cumulative output of coal for 1966–1980 at 10.6 billion tons, that of natural gas at 294 trillion cu ft and that of crude petroleum at 56 billion bbl. There is little doubt concerning the ability of the coal industry to meet the projected demand for coal over the next 15 years since coal reserves should be ample for the foreseeable future. However, the projections of demand and supply for coal are beset with uncertainties. These stem from the rapidly emerging nuclear power industry and from such probable contingencies as the imposition of restrictions on the sulfur content of coal and residual fuel oil under future environmental pollution-control programs. The future supply problems of the oil and gas industries in meeting projected demands are currently under study by the Dept. of the Interior. As Secretary Udall indicated in his speech before the National Petroleum Council in March, 1966, there are three possible avenues of approach: added discoveries of new deposits of oil and gas, additional recovery from known deposits and development of alternative fuels. Because of the existing end-use patterns of consumption of petroleum products and natural gas, the choice of substitute energy resources for these fossil fuels offers a limited range of possibilities. Petroleum products, approximately 90 percent of which are consumed in transportation, are not readily replaced by other energy sources or energy forms. JPT P. 1329ˆ