Future Economic Growth Research Articles

Nexus among Economic Uncertainty, Geopolitical Risk, Oil Price Volatility and Economic Complexity in Saudi Arabia: Fresh Insights from Wavelet Local Multiple Correlations

Enhancing future economic growth through higher economic complexity is vital for sustainable growth strategies. Even though most studies are concerned with the key factors governing the economic complexity process, there needs to be more studies about the impact of risk factors on economic sophistication evolvement, particularly for oil-rentier economies. The present paper intends to delve into the dynamic connectedness between some risk factors, such as economic, political, and geopolitical risks and oil price volatility and the progress of economic complexity. We utilized quarterly data (1995Q1-2021Q4) for Saudi Arabia as a heavy oil-rich economy. As the first study to delve into the short-long term connections at various time scales and frequencies within a multivariable setting, we contribute to the literature by offering a spotless picture of economic complexity risk factors. In doing so, we resort to a novel wavelet local multiple correlation method, which can explore the varying patterns of time periods in the interconnections between the variables. Our findings disclose that oil volatility, geopolitical risk, and global uncertainties are positively connected to economic complexity over the long run. In contrast, their short-term effect is weak and mostly insignificant. These results indicate the resiliency of the Saudi economy to external to oil volatility shocks and intensification of global and local uncertainties. These outcomes offer policymakers new insights and prominent policy recommendations when designing economic strategies to achieve higher economic sophistication and sustainable growth.

The New Strategy to Improve Indonesia's National Economic Growth

Post-order new economic growth has decreased. The source of the decline in economic growth is that state revenues in the oil and gas sector have decreased. Indonesia needs more consistent high economic growth to accelerate Indonesia's leap to become a high-income country. In this situation Thus, there are several challenges so that Indonesia can achieve growth targets and, at the same time maintain growth The challenges that must be faced​ in the form of quality sources of Power are human beings who still have valued investment in resources Power life and wealth intellectuals who are still low, plus with Posture exports that have not been worth economy high. With this, an appropriate policy strategy is needed for the three things above to become locomotives of future economic growth. Although Indonesia needs high economic growth, several boundaries must be adhered to, namely, the nature of economic growth must be inclusive, so as not to widen the gap in social inequality. A growth economy must be supported by a diversity of rich life and, at the same time intended to guard sustainability naturally as a source of main Continuity of Development and Justice between generations.

30 Years of Macroeconomic Effects in Zambia-VECM, ARDL & IRF Approaches

Purpose: This study examines the impact of selected time series macroeconomic variables on Zambia’s economic progress for thirty (30) years (1992 to 2022) Methodology: The study employs the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL), vector error correction models (VECMs) and the impulse response functions (IRFs) approaches. Findings: The VECM regression estimates indicate that in the long-run, ceteris paribus, a 1% increase in inflation and population growth rates cause a significant positive impact on economic progress of 0.36% and 0.68 % respectively whereas the total public debt stock causes decrease in economic growth of 0.45%. The ARDL long-run regression estimates indicate that ceteris paribus, a 1% increase in inflation and public debt significantly reduces real GDP by 0.2% and 0.03%, respectively, but a 1% increase in population growth rate increases real GDP by 23.11%. The IRF estimates show that a negative shock to the real GDP causes a mildly negative effect on the inflation rate, causes a significant positive increase in the population growth rate, which dissipates after 9.5 years and causes a significant positive increase in public debt, which dissipates after 10 years. Unique Contribution to Theory, Policy and Practice: Therefore, the study recommends that the Zambian government should prioritize repayment of the outstanding public debt by bringing down the debt-to-GDP ratio to sustainable levels, adhering to prudent public financial management and continuing to grow the domestic revenue base. The policies to promote population growth should be pursued cautiously because rapid population growth rates could erode the future economic growth prospects of Zambia.

Early childhood growth trajectories and early adolescent cognitive achievement: the role of catch-up

Human capital deficits in early childhood in terms of health and cognitive developmental issues are conceptualized as a lurking threat to China’s future economic growth by a growing body of scholarly literature; however, it is unknown whether these deficits persist into adolescence. This study draws upon longitudinal, nationally-representative data from the China Family Panel Studies 2010–2020 to investigate the possibility of recovering from early growth retardation and the potential implications for recovery of related cognitive outcomes. In particular, the paper considers whether there is evidence of cognitive catch-up from early cognitive delays. Based on group-based trajectory models with inverse probability of treatment weighting, this study finds that mid-childhood catch-up growth may mitigate the negative effects of early childhood stunting on early adolescent academic performance. Moreover, children who recover from stunting demonstrate cognitive catch-up in Chinese but not in math. This evidence not only reaffirms the significance of early childhood development but also suggests an opportunity for interventions to avert undernutrition and cognitive deficits after early childhood.

China’s 14th Five Year Plan: Unsolved Issues and Possible Way Out

Continued from the previous five year plan, the 14th Five Year Plan (2021–2025) emphasizes quality and innovation-led growth. To allow more flexibility to accomplish the qualitative targets, the central government did not explicitly set a growth target for the 14th Five Year Plan, which is unprecedented since China’s First Five Year Plan (1953–1957). Further, a new growth paradigm of “dual circulation” becomes the mainstay for future economic growth. One of the main planks of “dual circulation” is to boost economic growth via domestic consumption. It is argued that lifting domestic consumption will at best serve as counter-cyclical measures, but have limited impact on long-term growth that rests on the efficient use of factor inputs and the enhancement of total factor productivity (TFP). It is illustrated that China’s growth is constrained by declining population and labor force, shrinking labor and capital productivity as well as dwindling growth of TFP. Future policy initiatives must focus on quality human capital investment, mobility of factor inputs from low value uses to high value uses and productivity-enhancing innovation.

Start-Ups: Importance and Role in the Economy

This paper examines the importance and the role that start-ups play in securing the future economic growth and development of a society, thereby concluding that Albania must do a lot more to afford start-ups the right and favorable environment for their flourishment. Start-ups are a relatively late comer to the Albania’s innovation and business scene, and this definitely has a bearing on its development endeavors. As of today, Albania has about 88 start-ups per 1 million inhabitants, whereas the European Union average is of 250 start-ups per 1 million inhabitants. The paper takes a close look at the theoretical foundation and functioning of start-ups by referring to the most prominent studies conducted worldwide, as well as to their importance and role in generating economic growth and development by looking at various indicators, such as enticing industry disruptions, spurring innovation, encouraging investments, enhancing competition, offering new products and services, growing markets, job creation, etc. Received: 2 June 2024 / Accepted: 25 July 2024 / Published: 29 July 2024

Digital finance and industrial structure upgrading: Evidence from Chinese counties

The county-level economy holds the potential for future economic growth in China, but traditional finance faces challenges in meeting the needs of county-level economic development and industrial structure upgrading. Digital finance plays a vital role in addressing the challenges faced in county-level development. This study empirically examines the impact and underlying mechanisms of digital finance on industrial structure upgrading using panel data from 1385 counties in China from 2014 to 2020. The empirical results indicate that the development of digital finance significantly promotes industrial structure upgrading, and this finding holds even after conducting a series of robustness tests. Mechanism analysis suggests that digital finance stimulates industrial structure upgrading in the county by fostering entrepreneurial activity and promoting social consumption. Cross-sectional analysis further reveals that the impact of digital finance is more pronounced in regions with lower levels of traditional finance development and efficiency, as well as lower levels of economic development. Additionally, the influence of digital finance diminishes from central to eastern and western regions of China.

Innovation and Sustainable Development: Management Strategies for Driving Future Economic Growth

Innovation and Sustainable Development: Management Strategies for Driving Future Economic Growth

Digital technology adoption and the latecomer firms’ catch-up: an empirical study on Chinese manufacturing enterprises

ABSTRACT Digital technology has a significant influence on future economic growth. Achieving catch-up in the context of digital development is crucial for firms. However, the mechanisms between firms’ digital technology adoption (DTA) and catch-up are underexplored. Based on panel data of A-share listed manufacturing firms in China from 2012 to 2021, this study investigates the impact of DTA on firms’ technological catch-up (TC) and market catch-up (MC) from theoretical and empirical perspectives. The following findings are drawn. (1) DTA positively and significantly affects firms’ TC and MC, and the results remain valid after using the instrumental variables method, propensity score matching, and other robustness tests. After removing the order-of-magnitude discrepancies and dimensions, DTA had a more significant effect on MC than TC. (2) Dynamic capacity mediates the relationship between DTA and firms’ catch-up. (3) The heterogeneity analysis finds that DTA influences TC and MC in state-owned enterprises and high-tech firms more significantly. This study provides a new perspective on firms’ catch-up and guides for firms to develop effective DTA and catch-up strategies.

Regional policy options for carbon peaking in the Yangtze River Delta under uncertainty

The Yangtze River Delta (YRD) region plays a crucial role in achieving China's carbon peaking goal. However, due to uncertainties surrounding future economic growth, energy consumption, energy structure, and population, the attainment of carbon peaking in this region remains uncertain. To address this issue, this study utilized the generalized Divisia index method to analyze the driving factors of carbon emissions, including economy, energy, investment, and population. Subsequently, Monte Carlo simulations were combined with scenario analysis to dynamically explore the peak path of regional heterogeneity in the YRD from 2022 to 2035 under uncertain conditions. The findings highlighted that economic uncertainty has the most significant impact on carbon emissions. Furthermore, reducing energy intensity and promoting the transformation of the energy consumption structure contribute to carbon reduction. The study also revealed that the carbon peak in the YRD exhibits regional heterogeneity. According to the baseline scenario, carbon emissions in the YRD will not peak before 2035. However, under the low-carbon development scenario, the carbon emissions of Zhejiang and Shanghai will peak before 2030. Moreover, under the enhanced emission reduction (EE) scenario, carbon emissions in Jiangsu, Zhejiang, and Shanghai will peak before 2025, while Anhui will reach its peak before 2030. Collectively, the entire YRD region is forecasted to attain a carbon emissions peak of 2.29 billion tons by 2025 under the EE scenario. This study provides valuable insights into the carbon emission trajectories of the YRD region under uncertain conditions. The findings can be instrumental in formulating carbon peaking policies that account for regional heterogeneity.

The Concurrent Application of Phosphogypsum and Modified Biochar as Soil Amendments Influence Sandy Soil Quality and Wheat Productivity.

Sandy soil covers a significant portion of Egypt's total land area, representing a crucial agricultural resource for future food security and economic growth. This research adopts the hypothesis of maximizing the utilization of secondary products for soil improvement to reduce ecosystem pollution. The study focuses on assessing the impact of combining phosphogypsum and modified biochar as environmentally friendly soil amendments on loamy sand soil quality parameters such as soil organic carbon, cation exchange capacity, nutrient levels, and wheat yield. The treatments were T1: the recommended NPK fertilizer (control); T2: 2.5 kg phosphogypsum m-2 soil; T3: 2.5 kg rice straw biochar m-2 soil; T4: 2.5 kg cotton stalk biochar m-2 soil; T5: 2.5 kg rice-straw-modified biochar m-2 soil; T6: 2.5 kg cotton-stalk-modified biochar m-2 soil; and T7 to T10: mixed phosphogypsum and biochar treatments. The results revealed that the combined use of phosphogypsum and modified cotton stalk biochar (T10) significantly enhanced soil organic carbon (SOC) by 73.66% and 99.46% in both seasons, the soil available N both seasons by 130.12 and 161.45%, the available P by 89.49% and 102.02%, and the available K by 39.84 and 70.45% when compared to the control treatment. Additionally, this treatment led to the highest grain yield of wheat (2.72 and 2.92 Mg ha-1), along with a significant increase in straw yield (52.69% and 59.32%) compared to the control treatment. Overall, the findings suggest that the combined use of phosphogypsum and modified biochar, particularly cotton-stalk biochar, holds promise for improving loamy sand-soil quality and wheat productivity.

Research on Global Market Competition and Activation Impact of China's New Energy Vehicles

With the shortage of global energy resources and the increased awareness of environmental protection, in recent years, China's new energy vehicle industry has developed rapidly and become a major player in the global electric vehicle market. This paper will discuss the competitive situation of China's new energy vehicles in the global market and its impact on the activation of the global new energy vehicle market. By analyzing the policy support, technological innovation, market expansion and international competitiveness of China's new energy vehicle industry, this paper aims to reveal China's important position in the global new energy vehicle market and its far-reaching impact on the global industrial structure. In recent years, China's new energy vehicle industry has sprung up and developed rapidly, and has become a powerful force in the global electric vehicle market. In this ever-changing era of science and technology, the new energy vehicle industry is regarded as an important driving force for future global economic growth, and countries have increased investment and competed for market share. In terms of technological innovation, China's new energy automobile industry continues to increase investment in research and development, breakthroughs in key technologies, and has achieved remarkable results. From the perspective of policy support, the Chinese government attaches great importance to the development of the new energy automobile industry and has introduced a series of policy measures to encourage and promote the rapid development of the industry. From the perspective of market expansion, the market of new energy vehicles in our country shows a rapid growth trend. In terms of international competitiveness, China's new energy automobile industry has gradually risen, and has the strength to compete with developed countries such as Europe, America and Japan. With the continuous growth of China's new energy automobile industry, the export business has also achieved remarkable results, and the international market share has gradually increased. On a global scale, China's new energy automobile industry has formed a new pattern of competition with major economies. The competitive situation of China's new energy automobile industry in the global market has become increasingly prominent, which has a positive activation effect on the global new energy automobile market. Under the joint promotion of policy support, technological innovation, market expansion and international competitiveness, China's new energy vehicle industry will continue to play an important role in the global market and have a profound impact on the global industrial pattern. With the increasingly fierce competition in the field of new energy vehicles, the development of China's new energy vehicle industry will have a greater impact and influence on the global market.

Coordinated lunar time (LTC): Implications of a lunar-centric time zone on astronaut health and space medicine

Lunar exploration offers an exciting opportunity for humanity to advance scientific knowledge and future potential economic growth and possibly allow humans to become a multi-planetary species. On April 2, 2024 the US Office of Science and Technology Policy released a memorandum outlining the current Biden-Harris Administration's policy on the need to establish time standards at celestial bodies other than Earth. This memorandum also introduced the need for Coordinated Lunar Time (CLT), the concept of having a reference time for the moon. The establishment of CLT would provide a multitude of benefits for astronaut health, from expedition planning, to maintaining a sense of order in an austere environment. International agreements and collaboration will be required prior to the recognition of CLT.

The Economical and Geographical Importance of Lapis Route

This research explores the intricate web of the Lapis Route, an ancient trade route that formerly linked Afghanistan with the Mediterranean Sea. This study examines the geographical and historical relevance of this ancient road using a qualitative research approach, building on insights from numerous books, journals, and other sources. It focuses on the valuable lapis lazuli gemstone that contributed to the route's notoriety. The research delves into the various segments of the Lapis Route and its convergence with the Silk Road, unveiling the complex web of commerce that thrived amongst various societies. It reveals the significance of the Silk Road historically and emphasizes how it shaped both economic development and cross-cultural exchange. In addition, the study looks into the economic importance of silk, a highly prized item that traveled the Silk Road and supported the region's economy. The study concludes by examining the historical, cultural, and economic significance of the Silk Road and the Lapis Route in Afghanistan. The report addresses the opportunities and problems related to transit and commercial development, emphasizing the possible advantages of reviving the Silk Road. It highlights the possibilities that the revival of this historic trade route holds for fostering regional collaboration and economic progress. This study provides important insights into the historical, geographical, and economic relevance of the Silk Road and the Lapis Route by analyzing them. It draws attention to the routes' lasting impact and their potential to support Afghanistan's and the region's future economic growth.

Factors Influencing Behavior Usage Intention Technology and Innovation Products for Health in Thailand

Objective: The purpose of this study is to examine the elements influencing behavior usage intention related to technological and innovative products for health in Thailand. Theoretical Framework: In the field of medical industry is among those sectors that leverage emerging technologies and innovations to propel future economic growth. It contributes significantly to the improvement of health cares and livelihoods as a result of technological, innovative, and personalized health developments. Its goal is to establish a causality relationship and to check the consistency of the model influencing behavior usage intention and technological and innovative products for health in Thailand. Method: The study used a mixed method, incorporating qualitative feedbacks from 21 experts and quantitative data from 600 participants in Thailand. Filtering was performed on the data to remove outliers and demonstrates statistical, confirmatory factor analysis, and structural equation modeling. Results and Conclusion: This study found that health belief, credibility, consumer innovation, attitude to use, and perceived usefulness positively affect behavior usage intention toward technological and innovative products for health. It is established that attitudes to use is one of the strongest indicators of behavior usage intention healthcare technology and innovation utilization, directly and indirectly. Originality/Value: This research discloses causal elements that impact factors influencing behavior usage intention technology and innovation products for health in Thailand. Developers and marketers can utilize more development tactics to enhance consumers’ behavior usage intention in healthcare technology.

Lifelong learning as a governing technique of subjectivation from the perspective of the discourse of hope and fear

Neoliberal governmentality highlights that the mode of governing technologies has moved from government toward governance in modern society. Accordingly, as the self becomes the nexus between social control and self-regulation, configuring self-knowledge is mainly achieved through subjectivation, as argued by M. Foucault. The OECD's PISA program implicitly carries out this technique by holding teachers responsible for national prospects through its assumption of a close linkage between teaching quality and human capital. More importantly, PISA data facilitates international comparisons and rankings by which the international competitiveness of its participants can be identified and categorized. Unsurprisingly, those member countries/regions classified in the first tier are confident of their prospects for future economic growth in contrast with those ranked below the average, which are unable to escape from a state of fear engendered by their assumed lack of economic prospects. Teachers thus become the subject and object of educational reforms. Teachers need to improve their teaching quality through professional development to eliminate the stigma of being viewed as social burdens. The discourses of hope and fear set in motion by PISA thus turn lifelong learning into a powerful means of facilitating the government to fabricate teachers' subjectivity. This is the art of subjectivation, commanding teachers to perform as enterprising subjects who are dedicated to contributing to social progression through good teaching quality, which is perceived as the gateway for them to bring honor upon themselves.

The role of the net purchase of stocks by foreign investors in boosting stock returns: Evidence from the Indonesian stock market

Low reporting quality, as demonstrated by lower earnings informativeness, can exacerbate the information asymmetry gap, particularly in emerging markets. Although recent research shows that aggregate earnings can predict future economic growth, accruals, an important earnings component, are more likely to be manipulated in less sophisticated markets. Using data from Indonesia, we examine the impact of foreign stock investors' activities and accruals on stock returns. Our findings show that foreign stock investors' optimism, as measured by their net purchases of stocks, leads to higher excess returns. Foreign investors improve the quality of financial information. They provide benefits through two channels. First, foreign investors’ trading value significantly impacts stock prices in a thin market. Second, net stock purchases by foreign investors can help reduce information asymmetry. Our results contribute to the investment strategy by examining the relationship between sentiment generated by foreign investors and stock returns.

Critical Analysis of Revenue Generation of Azad Jammu and Kashmir: Challenges and Way Forward

This paper provides a critical assessment of AJK's revenue generation, identifies the obstacles, and offers a solution for future sustainable economic growth and development in Azad Kashmir. The study uses a mixed-method approach that includes case studies, interviews with key stakeholders, and a review of the literature. Two important sectors i.e., the Power development organization and the Inland Revenue Department with the potential to generate considerable amounts of revenue are acknowledged and evaluated as case studies by the critical examination of AJK's revenue generation. According to the conclusions of this investigation, AJK confronts difficulty in expanding its revenue sources outside conventional sectors such as agriculture and tourism. According to the analysis, AJK has a limited tax base and a poor tax-to-GDP ratio when compared to international standards. Infrastructural restrictions were also noted as a significant challenge to revenue generation in AJK. The region confronts constraints in utilizing its hydropower capacity, which can influence economic activity and revenue production possibilities. With its attractive landscapes, historical sites, and cultural legacy, AJK has tremendous tourism potential. However, due to limited infrastructure, a lack of promotion and marketing activities, and security concerns, the region faces obstacles in fully realizing this potential. The thesis makes many policy solutions to solve these issues, such as boosting access to finance, fostering public-private partnerships, and tackling instability due to the Kashmir Issue. To promote sustainability and equitable growth, the thesis also underlines the value of incorporating local people in the revenue creation process. Overall, this individual research paper will help understand the dynamics of revenue generation and can help Azad Kashmir formulate policies on taxation, investment, trade, and other economic activity. Policymakers can analyze the performance of existing policies, identify areas for improvement, and establish evidence-based policies to increase income creation in the region by analyzing revenue data. This can lead to improved policy results and more informed decision-making.

Forecasting of technology innovation and economic growth in Indonesia

This article explored the scenarios of future technology innovation and economic growth. The feedback economics' perspective was applied in forecasting future technology innovation and economic growth. The system dynamics modelling of economic growth by incorporating technology innovation revealed that: i. General Purpose Technologies (GPTs) investment should be linked with industrial policy as a leverage point; ii. The post-COVID-19 industrial policy should diffuse GPTs for inclusive growth and sustainable development, it is different with the Indonesian pre-COVID-19's industrial policy, specifically before the 1997 economic crisis; iii. Rethinking the Indonesian industrial policy is to rejuvenate the existing industrial-based GPTs' complex, and the inter-ministerial policy coordination is a challenge to implement the industrial-based GPTs policy instrument. Putting the GPTs' innovation into practice by using industrial policy for future economic growth sustainability is the unique insight on reindustrialization. The scientific contributions of this study were: i. on theoretical basis, the framework and model enriched the feedback economics' view of Cavana et al. and; ii. on innovation economics' studies, the framework and model support the concepts of Lundvall. Finally, future work from this study is designing different feedback structure that could generate different results.

How Gender Stereotypes Affect Adolescents' Academic Performance

Gender stereotypes are commonly held ideas about the traits and skills that distinguish men and women. The academic performance of teenagers may be impacted by these prejudices, particularly in the fields of science, technology, engineering, and mathematics (STEM). These preconceptions have the power to affect how individuals view themselves, others, and various circumstances, as well as how they act. Teenage academic achievement can also be impacted by gender stereotypes, particularly in STEM fields, where success is thought to be crucial for future employment and economic growth. This essay explores the elements that lead to the creation and upkeep of gender stereotypes as well as the research on the impact of these preconceptions on teenage academic achievement. The paper also discusses the implications that have been implemented to reduce the negative effects of gender stereotypes on adolescents’ academic achievement and interest in STEM fields. The paper concludes with some implications and recommendations for educators, parents, and policy makers.