Future Earthquakes Research Articles

Complex fault system associated with the Molucca Sea Divergent double subduction zone revealed by the 2019 Mw 6.9 and Mw 7.1 Earthquakes

GNSS (Global Navigation Satellite System) data in northern Sulawesi and western Halmahera reveals a pattern of coseismic displacement that was caused by the 7 July 2019 (Mw 6.9) and 14 November 2019 (Mw 7.1) Molucca Sea earthquakes. The coseismic slip of these earthquakes are obtained via inversion on rectangular fault planes of surface GNSS coseismic deformation offsets. The 7 July 2019 earthquake ruptured on an east-dipping fault with a maximum slip of ∼35 cm located at ∼4 km depth and ∼ 100 km north-west of the epicenter. The 14 November 2019 earthquake also ruptured on an east-dipping fault, which has a maximum slip of ∼64 cm located at ∼22 km depth and ∼ 20 km south-west of the epicenter. The coseismic slip distribution of the 14 November earthquake is spatially aligned to that of an earthquake of similar magnitude that took place on 15 November 2014 in the same region. This observation points to the possibility of synchronization, thus raising the prospect of a future earthquake exceeding magnitude 7. If the stress was completely released during the 2014 event, it would have been necessary to reload that portion of the fault at a rate significantly larger than the observed convergence rate of ∼5.8 cm/yr. This suggests that partial ruptures are likely controlling the recurrence time of large earthquakes in the region.

Educating non-specialized audiences about seismic design principles using videos and physical models

The prevalence of self-construction practices in Türkiye has resulted in a building stock whose earthquake resilience is highly uncertain. To mitigate the potentially devastating impact of anticipated large earthquakes, one viable approach is to increase earthquake awareness among builders themselves. However, these builders lack formal engineering training and are ordinary citizens. Therefore, the challenge lies in devising visual teaching methods, such as short videos, to explain complex seismic phenomena in a comprehensible manner. This paper introduces the use of educational media tailored for non-specialized audiences, encompassing regular citizens and students without engineering backgrounds. These videos are based on experiments conducted with physical models on a homemade shake table. They focus on key factors influencing the seismic response of multi-storey buildings and highlight common design and construction errors that lead to building damage. To assess the effectiveness of this approach, we conducted a workshop with junior architecture students, followed by post-workshop qualitative assessments through knowledge surveys and interviews. The findings indicate that while single-topic videos were effective learning tools for students without prior knowledge of seismic building design, students found models particularly useful for explaining specific concepts such as torsional behavior, the role of diaphragms, and the performance of non-structural components. However, despite positive feedback on the effectiveness of model testing, students generally did not perceive significant knowledge acquisition in model construction. Ultimately, the accessibility of freely available videos, coupled with their enhanced educational value, makes them effective tools for raising seismic awareness in communities vulnerable to future earthquakes.

The dynamic threat from landslides following large continental earthquakes.

Earthquake-triggered landslides show three important characteristics: they are often responsible for a considerable proportion of the damage sustained during mountain region earthquakes, they are non-randomly distributed across space, and they continue to evolve in the years after the earthquake. Despite this, planning for future earthquakes rarely takes into consideration either landslides or their evolution with time. Here we couple a unique timeseries of mapped landslides between 2014-2020 across the area of Nepal impacted by the 2015 Mw 7.8 Gorkha earthquake and a numerical landslide runout model overlain with building locations to examine how the distributions of both evolving landslide hazard and exposure intersect to generate a dynamic threat to buildings. The threat from landslide runout is shown to change in predictable ways after the earthquake, becoming more pronounced at mid- and lower-hillslope positions and remaining in the landscape for multiple years. Using the positions of our mapped landslides as a starting point, we can identify a priori the locations of 78% of buildings that were subsequently impacted by landslide debris. We show that landslide exposure and hazard vary from negligible to high, in relative terms, over lateral distances of as little as 10s of m. Our findings hold important implications for guiding reconstruction and for taking steps to reduce the risks from future earthquakes.

SEISMOGENIC ZONE OF CAPE SHARTLAY (LAKE BAIKAL): SPECIFIC FEATURES OF STRUCTURE, DISPLACEMENTS AND RUPTURE GROWTH

Seismogenic deformations of Cape Shartlay represent a very young fault system on the northwestern coast of Lake Baikal. Their study is providing an important opportunity to measure earthquake magnitudes, to identify areas where earthquakes are more likely to occur, and to estimate the probability of earthquake occurrence as applied to seismically active Baikal region. In this connection, the present work was aimed at characterizing in detail the structure, displacements, and reconstruction of the rupture propagation model. The study is based on photogrammetric processing and interpretation of the unmanned aerial survey data, as well as on morphostructural analysis of the displacement profiles and georadiolocation (GPR) data. It has been found that seismogenic ruptures of Cape Shartlay formed under prevailing extension conditions during no less than two earthquakes with magnitudes Mw≥7.0, Ms≥7.2. Seismic rupture propagation was primarily northward. The main rupture with displacement amplitude of more than 2 m contributed 39 to 93 % to the total surface displacement depending on the amount of dislocations on the transverse profile. It is shown that the length of a certain rupture increased almost instantaneously, then displacements along some of the ruptures stopped. A significant elongation of ruptures is primarily due to their merging. The present-day seismogenic zone is highly permeable. According to the tectonophysical model of formation of inner structure of the fault zone, the development of the seismogenic rupture system of Cape Shartlay corresponds to the late disjunctive stage. This means that the rupturing process in this segment of the North Baikal fault may not have stopped yet, and the lack of large earthquakes in the instrumental record implies the accumulation of stress in its southern part. The obtained results provide an opportunity to reconstruct the development of large fault zones by studying the displacement profiles and, therefore, to localize more precisely the places where future earthquakes may occur.

Microgravity Survey to Evaluate Earthquake Effects on the Derbendikhan Dam Site, Iraq

ABSTRACT A microgravity investigation was conducted along the axis of the Derbendikhan rockfill dam in Iraq. The dam lies in an earthquake-prone area within the High Folded Zone of the Western Zagros Fold–Thrust Belt. The goal of the survey was to evaluate the expected subsurface damage that could threaten the stability of the dam due to the effects of a 7.3 magnitude earthquake and future earthquakes that cause foundation cracking and landslides. The survey consists of 324 microgravity stations distributed on four profiles. Residual gravity anomalies were obtained by removing the regional effect of a 5-m upward continuation filter. Several negative and positive anomalies are distinguishable in a residual anomalies map that reflects the subsurface heterogeneity within the clay material that makes up the dam. The results reveal that there are no recognizable indications regarding the evolution of subsurface channels after the earthquake was given. Furthermore, two prominent anomalies appear close to the right bank at roughly 21 m in depth. These positive and negative anomalies suggest that high- and low-density zones coincide with different degrees of compressional stresses caused by the earthquake. Two-dimensional modeling indicates several low (less compacted) and high (more compacted) density areas that warrant further investigation in terms of material strength. The results can be used as a guide for a drilling program to examine the sources of the anomalies.

Source characterization of the 20th May 2024 MD 4.4 Campi Flegrei caldera earthquake through a joint source-propagation probabilistic inversion

On May 20th, 2024, an earthquake of magnitude MD 4.4 nucleated at shallow depth (2.6 km) in the Campi Flegrei caldera (Southern Italy), a densely populated area where an increase in seismic activity has been observed since 2019 attributable to an on-going unrest episode. While the magnitude was moderate, the event produced a strong ground shaking with an observed maximum peak ground acceleration of 3.58 m s-2, and several buildings were damaged. Here, we characterize the earthquake source using a probabilistic joint source-propagation spectral inversion in the Fourier space. We estimate a moment magnitude Mw = 3.70 ± 0.13 and a corner frequency fc = 1.11 ± 0.19 Hz. Assuming a circular rupture model, we estimate a source radius r = 400 ± 70 m and a stress drop Δσ = 3.2 ± 2.2 MPa. The estimated stress drop suggests that future earthquakes in the hypocentral region, considering a possible rupture length of 3 km suggested by previous studies, can have magnitude increased by 1.2 ± 0.3 units with respect to May 20th event. A systematic source characterization of the recent seismicity in the caldera would hep in estimating the expected ground motions from future large-magnitude events.

Imaging Below the Surface Reveals One of Los Angeles’s Webs of Faults

Damage zones extend to either side of many faults and can affect how future earthquakes behave.

A GIS-Based emergency response and management support framework for Earthquake crisis: A case study of Antakya and Kahramanmaras earthquake in Turkey

Earthquakes can cause significant damage, including loss of lives, collapsed buildings, and blocked roads. However, the severity and frequency of earthquakes cannot be accurately predicted. To mitigate these effects, successful disaster management, particularly in improving post-earthquake road network connectivity, is crucial. Therefore, this study presents a novel satellite imagery-based approach for identifying post-earthquake road blockage and to assess its impact on urban infrastructure and emergency response management. This study utilised real-world pre- and post-earthquake satellite images of the earthquake that struck Turkey on February 6, 2023 using ArcGIS Pro. The results demonstrated that in the scenario when people in affected areas (incidents) tried to escape to emergency gathering zones, out of the initial 126 incident locations in Antakya, 101 of them experienced alterations in the selected routes after the earthquake. In Kahramanmaras, out of 35 incidents, 28 experienced changes in the selected routes. In the case of emergency vehicles (firefighting, medical aid, etc.) traveling to affected areas, some emergency vehicles were assigned a great number of incidents, whereas some vehicles had no incidents assigned to them. The findings of this study suggest that the developed framework can identify road blockage and inefficiencies in an emergency response framework with high accuracy. Therefore, the approach presented in this paper can be implemented to develop a practical geographic information system (GIS) based model to enhance the emergency response management for potential future earthquakes. Thereby, this study can facilitate the level of resilience of urban environments to withstand and adapt to future crises.

High-resolution 3D ambient noise tomography around the Meishan-Chiayi active fault system of western Taiwan

The Meishan-Chiayi area of western Taiwan has a large probability of producing a major earthquake in the near future. Historically, one of the largest and most damaging of Taiwan’s earthquakes occurred there. It is, therefore, important to have a well-constrained upper crustal 3-D shear-wave velocity model that can be used to accurately determine ground motion predictions and fault geometry models used in seismic hazard and risk modelling. In this study, we carried out an ambient noise tomography experiment using 100 seismometers deployed with a ∼2 km spacing on a 20 by 20 km grid. The reliable periods of phase velocity from Rayleigh waves are 0.6 to 6.8 s, providing a well-resolved Vs structure from the surface to a depth of around 4 km. The velocity model displays a prominent, roughly northeast-striking change in Vs that follows the projected surface trace of the blind Chiayi thrust. The uplift of relatively higher Vs rocks in its hanging wall, together with a negative to positive change in dVs suggests that it dips gently eastward across the study area. A northward thickening of the lower Vs crust, together with a high negative dVs in the north of the study area is related to an increased thickness of foreland basin rocks across the Meishan fault. The Vs and dVs models provide reasonable evidence that the Meishan fault can be traced at a high angle from its surface rupture to the base of the model at 4 km depth. It cuts the Chiayi thrust.

Slip Rate for the Rose Canyon Fault through San Diego, California, Based on Analysis of GPS Data: Evidence for a Potential Rose Canyon–San Miguel-Vallecitos Fault Connection?

ABSTRACT The Rose Canyon fault is the southern extension of the larger Newport–Inglewood–Rose Canyon fault system, which represents a major structural boundary in the Inner Continental Borderland (ICB) offshore of southern California. Ten to fifteen percent of total plate boundary motion in southern California is thought to be accommodated by the faults of the ICB, but the exact distribution of slip is uncertain. With an onshore segment, the Rose Canyon fault offers an opportunity to measure the slip rate using traditional geodetic methods. In this study, we use Global Positioning System (GPS) surface velocities from a combined campaign and continuous GPS network to constrain elastic models of the Rose Canyon fault. We then compare the observed surface velocities with proposed conceptual models of regional fault connections that facilitate the transfer of slip into the Rose Canyon fault to assess how well the observations are explained by the models. The results of elastic half-space models suggest that the Rose Canyon fault may be slipping toward the higher end of geologic estimates, with the preferred model indicating a slip rate of 2.4 ± 0.5 mm/yr. Although limited in terms of near-fault benchmarks, we find an improved model fit using an asymmetrical elastic half-space model and a higher slip rate, suggesting a potential rheological contrast across the Rose Canyon fault, similar to observations from the northern Newport–Inglewood fault segments. Observed GPS surface velocities, background seismicity, and gravity anomalies south of San Diego Bay point toward a more easterly trace for the Rose Canyon fault, suggesting a possible connection with the San Miguel–Vallecitos fault system. Such a connection could increase the potential rupture lengths of future earthquakes and have important consequences for regional seismic hazards.

Seismic vulnerability assessment of tunnels in algeria: An innovative hierarchical approach

Tunnels are crucial components of civil infrastructure, serving as vital transportation routes for the public. In Algeria, where many tunnels are located in seismic zones, they face considerable risks from earthquakes, which can potentially impair their operational integrity. The susceptibility of these tunnels to seismic hazards underscores the need for robust assessment frameworks to evaluate their vulnerability. This study introduces a novel hierarchical framework for assessing tunnel vulnerability, drawing on global seismic data and experience. By integrating the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) with the Vulnerability Index (VI), we categorized tunnels into three vulnerability levels. This approach enabled the development of seismic scenarios to forecast their performance during future earthquakes. The methodology was applied to numerous tunnels across Algeria, yielding insightful results that align with observations from post-seismic assessments. By systematically analyzing various influencing parameters, including geological conditions, structural design, and operational factors, the study enhances our understanding of tunnel resilience in seismic contexts. Ultimately, this research contributes to proactive risk management strategies for tunnel infrastructure, aiming to mitigate potential damages and ensure their continued functionality in earthquake-prone regions like Algeria. By refining our assessment methods and predictive capabilities, we strive to bolster the resilience of critical urban infrastructure against seismic risks.

Fast Bayesian modal identification with known seismic excitations

AbstractFast and accurate identification of structural modal parameters after an earthquake is crucial for assessing structural conditions and facilitating repair. With the development of modern earthquake observation techniques, the recorded ground motion can be leveraged as extra input information for modal identification, enabling the experimental modal analysis applicable. This study develops a Bayesian modal identification algorithm that aims at estimating the most probable value (MPV) of modal parameters and their identification uncertainty. Incorporating the recorded seismic input, the algorithm utilizes with the structural equation of motion in the frequency domain to formulate the likelihood function and adopts a constrained Laplace method for Bayesian posterior approximation of modal parameters. With the aid of complex matrix calculus, an iterative scheme is developed, allowing a fast search of the MPV of modal parameters and an analytical evaluation of the posterior covariance matrix. The performance of the proposed algorithm is validated by examples with synthetic, laboratory and field data, respectively. In addition, its effectiveness on predicting structural responses under a future earthquake is illustrated, showing its potential for various downstream applications in seismic structural health monitoring.

Detectability of low-viscosity zone along lithosphere–asthenosphere boundary beneath the Nankai Trough, Japan, based on high-fidelity viscoelastic simulation

After the 2011 Tohoku-oki earthquake, a seafloor observation system observed rapid landward deformation. These seafloor observation data are potentially explicable via modeling of a low-viscosity zone under the subducting plate, called the lithosphere–asthenosphere boundary (LAB). However, the effect of a low-viscosity LAB has not been empirically examined in past earthquakes because of the absence of seafloor observation data, which are expected to have high sensitivity in the detection of a low-viscosity LAB. The Nankai Trough, southwest Japan, is one location where seafloor geodetic stations are in operation that could detect a low-viscosity LAB after a future earthquake. Therefore, we quantitatively model how the low-viscosity of the LAB is expected to affect postseismic crustal deformation following an anticipated future large earthquake under the Nankai Trough. Calculating viscoelastic deformation using a model that takes into account the realistic crustal structure in the southwestern Japanese Archipelago, we examine the effects of LAB viscosity on surface deformation patterns. The results show for very low LAB viscosities (2.5×1017\\documentclass[12pt]{minimal} \\usepackage{amsmath} \\usepackage{wasysym} \\usepackage{amsfonts} \\usepackage{amssymb} \\usepackage{amsbsy} \\usepackage{mathrsfs} \\usepackage{upgreek} \\setlength{\\oddsidemargin}{-69pt} \\begin{document}$$2.5 \ imes 10^{17}$$\\end{document} Pa s), rapid landward displacement as large as 38 cm/yr occurs in the offshore area, with uplift and subsidence patterns highly dependent on the viscosity structure. Especially in the first year after the earthquake, the difference in deformation between the cases with and without a low-viscosity LAB was much larger than the observational error level of the current seafloor observation system. For such low LAB viscosities, the probability of detection is therefore high. On the other hand, for moderately low LAB viscosities (2.5×1018\\documentclass[12pt]{minimal} \\usepackage{amsmath} \\usepackage{wasysym} \\usepackage{amsfonts} \\usepackage{amssymb} \\usepackage{amsbsy} \\usepackage{mathrsfs} \\usepackage{upgreek} \\setlength{\\oddsidemargin}{-69pt} \\begin{document}$$2.5 \ imes 10^{18}$$\\end{document} Pa s), the deformation patterns in the cases with and without a low-viscosity LAB are similar. Indeed, the difference in displacement lies within the observational error level of the current observational network, so detection is expected to be difficult for a LAB of only moderately low-viscosity. However, such a LAB may be detected by improving observational accuracy in the Global Navigation Satellite System–acoustic observation technique by performing more frequent measurements. Additional detection potential lies in expected future accuracy improvements in vertical displacement estimates at the DONET stations.Graphical

Recent Holocene activity and regional tectonic significance of the northern segment of the red river fault zone

The Red River Fault Zone is a large-scale right-lateral strike-slip fault zone with relatively strong activity during the Quaternary Period. This fault, located on the southeastern margin of the Qinghai‒Tibetan Plateau, plays a key role in the extrusion, rotation and escape of the continental blocks constituting the Qinghai‒Tibetan Plateau. Furthermore, this fault represents the southwestern boundary of the Sichuan–Yunnan Block, which has experienced strong deformation and frequent seismic activity. The northern segment of the Red River Fault Zone is the most active part of the whole fault. However, surface erosion and vegetation coverage have obscured the activity of the northern segment; therefore, the study of its activity has obviously been insufficient. There is still controversy over whether all the secondary faults on the northern segment are active Holocene faults. Studying the activity characteristics of the northern segment, which is densely populated, is particularly important for seismic risk prevention in this area. Based on remote sensing interpretations and field geological surveys, this paper describes the latest activity characteristics of the Cangshan Piedmont Fault, Fengyi–Dingxiling Fault and Midu Basin Margin Fault, including their spatial distributions and kinematic characteristics. According to the ages of the offset strata in profiles, the above three secondary faults were all active in the late Holocene. The latest active age of the Cangshan Piedmont Fault was later than 543-494 cal BP, and two palaeoseismic events that occurred in this section during the Holocene occurred at 2700 and 473 cal BP. The latest active age of the Fengyi–Dingxiling Fault was later than 2760–2700 cal BP; in this section, one Holocene palaeoseismic event occurred between 1777 cal BP and 2730 cal BP, another occurred between 2730 cal BP and 5664 cal BP, and the third occurred between 6449 cal BP and 8360 cal BP. The latest active age of the Midu Basin Margin Fault was later than 558-510 cal BP, and two Holocene palaeoseismic events occurred later than 2318-2114 cal BP and 558-510 cal BP. Based on the results of this paper and previous studies, we believe that the Fengyi–Dingxiling Fault on the northern segment of the Red River Fault Zone is at risk for future strong earthquakes. Additionally, abundant geological and geomorphologic evidence suggests that the northern segment is dominated by normal faults, reflecting the local strain response to secondary clockwise rotation of the Sichuan–Yunnan Block along the boundary fault. This finding is in line with the eastwards extrusion and escape of materials on the Qinghai‒Tibetan Plateau caused by the northwards and northeastwards pushing of the Indian Plate. To a certain extent, these observations reflect the tectonic deformation coordination between block rotation and boundary fault slip in the Sichuan–Yunnan Block in the context of continental block extrusion on the Qinghai–Tibetan Plateau.

Complex Segment Linkage Along the Sevier Normal Fault, Southwestern Utah

Abstract Major normal fault systems are composed of segments that link as displacement accumulates, with linkage zone characteristics that reveal fault zone evolution. The steeply west-dipping Sevier fault zone in southwestern Utah, displays a complex fault network that developed between two long (>10 km), en echelon segments near the town of Orderville. Geologic map data and cross-sections of the transfer zone between the Mt. Carmel segment in the south and the Spencer Bench segment in the north reveal more than ten normal faults and four relay ramps displaying a range of geometries, including two relay ramps that display ramp-parallel folds. We suggest that transfer zone deformation was initially dominated by faults subparallel to the primary segments with later cross-faults that hard-linked these faults across most of the transfer zone. When the transfer zone was a soft-linked system, a displacement deficit likely existed relative to fault segments to the north and south. This early fault configuration would have reduced the efficiency of slip propagation associated with major earthquakes (>M7.0). In contrast, the present-day transfer zone, with a complex but hard-linked fault network, shows displacements that transition smoothly from the higher displacement (~800 m) southern segment to the lower displacement (~400 m) northern segment. That transition, combined with extensional strain within the zone, suggests that the Orderville fault network would be unlikely to impede propagation associated with future major earthquakes. The kinematic model of fault evolution presented here has implications for those investigating geothermal energy potential, groundwater flow, natural gas and oil reservoirs, mineral deposit formation, or seismic hazards.

Slow Slip as an Indicator of Fault Stress Criticality

AbstractFault regions inferred to be slowly slipping are interpreted to accommodate much of tectonic plate motion aseismically and potentially serve as barriers to earthquake rupture. Here, we build on prior work using simulations of earthquake sequences with enhanced dynamic fault weakening to show how fault regions that exhibit decades of steady creep or transient slow‐slip events can be driven to dynamically fail by incoming earthquake ruptures. Following substantial earthquake slip, such regions can be under‐stressed and locked for centuries prior to slowly slipping again. Our simulations illustrate that slow fault slip indicates that a region is sufficiently loaded to be failing about its quasi‐static strength. Hence, if a fault region is susceptible to failing dynamically, then observations of slow slip could serve as an indication that the region is critically stressed and ready to fail in a future earthquake, posing a qualitatively different interpretation of slow slip for seismic hazard.

A Multiplex Rupture Sequence Under Complex Fault Network Due To Preceding Earthquake Swarms During the 2024 Mw 7.5 Noto Peninsula, Japan, Earthquake

AbstractA devastating earthquake with moment magnitude 7.5 occurred in the Noto Peninsula in central Japan on 1 January 2024. We estimate the rupture evolution of this earthquake from teleseismic P‐wave data using the potency‐density tensor inversion method, which provides information on the spatiotemporal slip distribution including fault orientations. The results show a long and quiet initial rupture phase that overlaps with regions of preceding earthquake swarms and associated aseismic deformation. The following three major rupture episodes evolve on segmented, differently oriented faults bounded by the initial rupture region. The irregular initial rupture process followed by the multi‐scale rupture growth is considered to be controlled by the preceding seismic and aseismic processes and the geometric complexity of the fault system. Such a discrete rupture scenario, including the triggering of an isolated fault rupture, adds critical inputs on the assessment of strong ground motion and associated damages for future earthquakes.

Complex Multi‐Fault Dynamics in Sikkim Himalaya: New Insights From Local Earthquake Analysis

AbstractAnomalously overturned thrust faults, lineaments and segmentation causing cross‐cutting basement structures characterize the tectonic setting of Sikkim Himalaya. However, its seismotectonics is poorly constrained along with the speculated northward extension of the Dhubri‐Chungthang Fault Zone (DCFZ) causing segmentation. Here, we utilize the precise location of newly acquired local earthquake data and fault plane solutions using full‐waveform moment tensor inversion to better constrain seismically active zones. Transtensional shearing along the Main Himalayan Thrust in central Sikkim is possibly incited by fluid‐rich upper‐crust. Cessation of the mapped 20 km wide mid‐crustal seismogenic zone of DCFZ at Chungthang and its northward discontinuation into the Higher Himalayas is confirmed by the striking variation in focal mechanisms. Earthquakes along imbricated segments in the lower‐crust originate possibly in response to crustal shortening. Extensional shearing along the Moho triggers seismicity to the northwest of Sikkim. Such complex tectonic dynamics instigating persistent seismicity indicates high potential for future great earthquakes in Sikkim Himalaya.

Nowcasting Earthquakes With Stochastic Simulations: Information Entropy of Earthquake Catalogs

AbstractEarthquake nowcasting has been proposed as a means of tracking the change in large earthquake potential in a seismically active area. The method was developed using observable seismic data, in which probabilities of future large earthquakes can be computed using Receiver Operating Characteristic methods. Furthermore, analysis of the Shannon information content of the earthquake catalogs has been used to show that there is information contained in the catalogs, and that it can vary in time. So an important question remains, where does the information originate? In this paper, we examine this question using stochastic simulations of earthquake catalogs. Our catalog simulations are computed using an Earthquake Rescaled Aftershock Seismicity (“ERAS”) stochastic model. This model is similar in many ways to other stochastic seismicity simulations, but has the advantage that the model has only 2 free parameters to be set, one for the aftershock (Omori‐Utsu) time decay, and one for the aftershock spatial migration away from the epicenter. Generating a simulation catalog and fitting the two parameters to the observed catalog such as California takes only a few minutes of wall clock time. While clustering can arise from random, Poisson statistics, we show that significant information in the simulation catalogs arises from the “non‐Poisson” power‐law aftershock clustering, implying that the practice of de‐clustering observed catalogs may remove information that would otherwise be useful in forecasting and nowcasting. We also show that the nowcasting method provides similar results with the ERAS model as it does with observed seismicity.

Three-dimensional displacement and slip distribution of the 2021 Mw 7.4 Maduo (Tibetan Plateau) earthquake determined by GNSS and InSAR

On May 22, 2021, an Mw 7.4 earthquake occurred on the Maduo-Jiangcuo fault, located in Maduo County, Qinghai Province (China). According to the co-seismic deformation and the three-dimensional displacement reached from the interferometric synthetic aperture radar (InSAR) and the global navigation satellite system (GNSS), the rupture trace in the NWW direction was mapped, spanning a length of approximately 160 km and the earthquake happened on a typical sinistral strike-slip fault. In three-dimensional displacement, the displacement in E-W was bigger than that in N-S and vertical, with the RMSE 3.01 mm, 15.28 mm, and 5.16 mm respectively. Moreover, the slip distribution inverted with the homogeneous half-space model and layered half-space model, indicated that the corresponding magnitude was 7.3 Mw and 7.4 Mw, and the corresponding peak slip was 5.53 m and 5.96 m. The correlation coefficients of observed and predicted both exceeded 0.791, meeting the need for slip inversion. What is more, the peak inversion depth was no more than 15 km with strike angle and dip angle of 269° and 82.9° in the homogeneous half-space model and 265° and 83.7° in the layered half-space model, respectively. In addition, the Coulomb stress changes decreased on the Maduo-Jiangcuo fault and accumulated on the East Kunlun fault, which might cause aftershocks and future earthquakes were still possible. In short, the 2021 Mw7.4 Maduo earthquake made it possible to unravel seismic behavior in the Tibet plateau, which is of great significance for seismic hazard research.