Future Deforestation Research Articles

Hidden risks of deforestation in global supply chains: A study of natural rubber flows from Sri Lanka to the United States

Growing global demand for natural rubber is driving deforestation due to the expansion of rubber plantations, with consequences for biodiversity, carbon storage, and local communities. There has been little attention given to these issues in Sri Lanka, where rubber production is central to economic growth. Although private initiatives and government regulations aim to reduce deforestation associated with these plantations, it is unclear if these measures effectively protect forests or limit associated risks in the supply chains of companies purchasing Sri Lankan rubber. This paper uses the TRACAST methodological framework and remote sensing to track natural rubber supply chains from Sri Lanka to the U.S and to identify hidden deforestation risks resulting from this trade. We estimate 196 km2 of forest were converted into rubber plantations between 2006 and 2016, including protected forests located in an emerging rubber frontier in southeast Sri Lanka. Our analysis identifies rubber traders and multinational tire manufacturers as key actors that hinder the traceability of rubber back to the plantations. This opacity increases the potential for unsustainably produced rubber to enter global supply chains of transnational corporations such as Loadstar (Michelin) and Nike. Most of these corporations have sustainable procurement policies, but the effectiveness of these policies is compromised by the lack of supply chain transparency. Integrating public and private sector management through inclusive multi-stakeholder initiatives and multi-level land use governance can help overcome these hurdles, prevent future deforestation, and assist Sri Lanka in moving towards more sustainable rubber production.

Brazil\u2019s Amazonian deforestation: the role of landholdings in undesignated public lands

The impact of deforestation in Brazilian Amazonia is a global concern, and land occupation in public lands contributes to increased deforestation rates. Little is known about the spread of deforestation in landholdings in undesignated public lands located on cattle-ranching frontiers. We use a case of Matupi District, a hotspot of deforestation along the Transamazon Highway in the southern portion of Brazil’s state of Amazonas, where spontaneous squatters and land grabbers are the main actors occupying landholdings. We assessed the advance of deforestation and the spatial distribution of landholdings in relation to the main road and to land categories (e.g., protected areas and undesignated public land). Landholdings up to 400 ha were the majority in numbers (52%) and larger landholdings (> 400 ha) were located farther into the forest, contributing to expanding the deforestation frontier. By 2018, 80% of the remaining forest was in larger landholdings (> 400 ha), increasing the susceptibility of this forest to being cleared in the coming years. Thus, greater attention should be given to these larger landholdings to control the spread of deforestation. By analyzing the clearing pattern in the landholdings, deforestation monitoring can focus on specific sizes of landholdings that contribute most to the advance of the deforestation frontier. Brazil’s current trend to facilitating the legalization of illegal claims in undesignated public lands, such as the large and medium landholdings we studied, implies vast areas of future deforestation and should be reversed.

How future climate change and deforestation can drastically affect the species of monkeys endemic to the eastern Amazon, and priorities for conservation

How future climate change and deforestation can drastically affect the species of monkeys endemic to the eastern Amazon, and priorities for conservation

Future Mangrove Carbon Storage Under Climate Change and Deforestation

Mangroves are important sinks of organic carbon (C) and there is significant interest in their use for greenhouse gas emissions mitigation. Adverse impacts on organic carbon storage potential from future climate change and deforestation would devalue such ambitions, thus global projections of future change remains a priority research area. We modeled the effects of climate change on future C stocks and soil sequestration rates (CSR) under two climate scenarios (“business as usual”: SSP245 and high-emissions: SSP585). Model results were contrasted with CO2 equivalents (CO2e) emissions from past, present and future rates of deforestation on a country specific scale. For C stocks, we found climate change will increase global stocks by ∼7% under both climate scenarios and that this gain will exceed losses from deforestation by the end of the twenty-first century, largely due to shifts in rainfall. Major mangrove-holding countries Indonesia, Malaysia, Cuba, and Nigeria will increase national C stocks by > 10%. Under the high-end scenario, while a net global increase is still expected, elevated temperatures and wider temperature ranges are likely increase the risk of countries’ C stocks diminishing. For CSR, there will likely be a global reduction under both climate change scenarios: 12 of the top 20 mangrove-rich countries will see a drop in CSR. Modeling of published country level mangrove deforestation rates showed emissions have decreased from 141.4 to 6.4% of annual CSR since the 1980’s. Projecting current mangrove deforestation rates into the future resulted in a total of 678.50 ± 151.32 Tg CO2e emitted from 2012 to 2095. Reducing mangrove deforestation rates further would elevate the carbon benefit from climate change by 55–61%, to make the proposition of offsetting emissions through mangrove protection and restoration more attractive. These results demonstrate the positive benefits of mangrove conservation on national carbon budgets, and we identify the nations where incorporating mangrove conservation into their Nationally Defined Contributions offers a particularly rewarding route toward meeting their Glasgow Agreement commitments.

Strategic protection of landslide vulnerable mountains for biodiversity conservation under land-cover and climate change impacts

Natural disasters impose huge uncertainty and loss to human lives and economic activities. Landslides are one disaster that has become more prevalent because of anthropogenic disturbances, such as land-cover changes, land degradation, and expansion of infrastructure. These are further exacerbated by more extreme precipitation due to climate change, which is predicted to trigger more landslides and threaten sustainable development in vulnerable regions. Although biodiversity conservation and development are often regarded as having a trade-off relationship, here we present a global analysis of the area with co-benefits, where conservation through expanding protection and reducing deforestation can not only benefit biodiversity but also reduce landslide risks to human society. High overlap exists between landslide susceptibility and areas of endemism for mammals, birds, and amphibians, which are mostly concentrated in mountain regions. We identified 247 mountain ranges as areas with high vulnerability, having both exceptional biodiversity and landslide risks, accounting for 25.8% of the global mountainous areas. Another 31 biodiverse mountains are classified as future vulnerable mountains as they face increasing landslide risks because of predicted climate change and deforestation. None of these 278 mountains reach the Aichi Target 11 of 17% coverage by protected areas. Of the 278 mountains, 52 need immediate actions because of high vulnerability, severe threats from future deforestation and precipitation extremes, low protection, and high-population density and anthropogenic activities. These actions include protected area expansion, forest conservation, and restoration where it could be a cost-effective way to reduce the risks of landslides.

Predicting habitat suitability of Caiman yacare and assessing the role of protected areas under current and future climate and deforestation models

Climate change and habitat degradation are recognized as serious threats for wildlife and an important aspects to be considered in conservation biology. However, little is known about how such environmental changes might impact crocodylians inhabiting the Neotropics and the effectiveness of Protected Areas (PAs) for long-term species conservation. To fill this gap, we used the Yacare Caiman (Caiman yacare) as a model to explore how climate change and habitat degradation might affect its distribution by 2050 and the effectiveness of current PAs for species conservation in response to future environmental changes. To this end, we estimated C. yacare suitable habitat using an ensemble modeling and consensus approach and assessed the species distribution variation inside and outside PAs as a consequence of two greenhouse emission scenarios (Representative Concentration Pathways [RCPs] 4.5 and 8.5), and three General Circulation Models (GCMs; ACCESS1-0, CANESM2, and MRI-CGCM3) for 2050. We estimated the current suitable habitat for C. yacare to be 854,494 km2 divided across five countries: Brazil (396,476 km2), Bolivia (377,853 km2), Paraguay (38,288 km2), Argentina (35,423 km2), and Peru (6,451 km2). Of these countries, Peru is the only one that can be considered “potential” because the species has not been registered there yet. We found that currently only 26.8% (228,835 km2) of C. yacare suitable habitat is under any type of protection of the IUCN Protected Area Categories System, which is currently well preserved from habitat degradation with only 1.9% reduced due to deforestation. We predicted that on average 56.2% of the current species range might be lost because of climate change and habitat degradation and only 14.7% of its suitable range could be preserved based on the current PAs system. Based on our assessment, we showed that future climate change scenarios and habitat degradation processes will require the establishment of additional PAs as well as the implementation of sustainable management strategies emphasizing corridors and suitable habitat linkages. These integrative approaches can be implemented in several ecoregions including the Pantanal flooded savannas, Cerrado woodlands and savannas, Beni savanna, Chiquitano dry forests, and Amazon moist forests, which we predict will be relatively well-preserved under most of the future climate change scenarios and constituting as priority regions for the long-term conservation of the species and tropical biodiversity.

Assessing ecosystem service outcomes from payments for hydrological services programs in Veracruz, Mexico: Future deforestation threats and spatial targeting

Payments for hydrologic services (PHS) programs focus on protecting upstream forests that provide a range of ecosystem services. The goal of this work is to inform the design of PHS policies by modeling ecosystem services outcomes in watersheds in Veracruz, Mexico. An integrated, spatially explicit model for evaluating the performance of the existing PHS program is developed by combining results of field measurements of ecosystem services associated with forested and converted land covers with a land change model that simulates land cover patterns in response to PHS program coverage and targeting strategies. The results indicate that the current PHS targeting strategy performs slightly better than a proposed benefit targeting strategy based on prioritizing areas with highest groundwater recharge potential. We also find that targeting based on deforestation risk results in unintended consequences because land cover classes with poorer ecosystem service values are selected. The latter results suggest that differentiating between forest cover age classes is important since forests in our study area exhibit substantial differences in ecosystem service indicators and in the land cover transition rates across age classes. Overall, our findings caution against the assumption that implementing detailed spatial benefit targeting strategies will necessarily increase the additionality of ecosystem services in conservation programs.

Broadening the Perspective of Zero-Deforestation Interventions in Peru by Incorporating Concepts from the Global Value Chain Literature

Global narratives around the links between deforestation and agricultural commodity production have led to the application of voluntary zero-deforestation agreements between companies, governments, and civil society. The continued tropical deforestation warrants a re-examination of this approach in order to customize its application for a particular location. Our paper contributes to this by exploring the spatial associations between deforestation and the production of cacao, coffee, and oil palm in the Amazon region in Peru. The geographical overlaps between deforestation, and the distribution of these commodity crops, indicate four types of spatial associations: (1) a high degree of deforestation and a high degree of commodity production (high-high); (2) a high degree of deforestation and a low degree of commodity production (high-low); (3) a low degree of deforestation and a high degree of commodity production (low-high); and (4) a low degree of deforestation and a low degree of commodity production (low-low). On the basis of these associations, we present four scenarios in which zero-deforestation supply chain interventions may operate in Peru and argue that broadening the perspective of such interventions by adopting a global value chain lens can improve the use of previously deforested lands, prevent unintended or future deforestation and, in turn, ensure that no forest area is left behind.

Peruvian Amazon disappearing: Transformation of protected areas during the last two decades (2001–2019) and potential future deforestation modelling using cloud computing and MaxEnt approach

Despite several measures that have been taken to promote the conservation of the Peruvian Amazon, several reports exhibited that forest cover loss was still occurring. To combat against deforestation and landscape change, the Peru government has created Protected Areas (PAs) to maintain floral diversity, conserve forests and environmental services. Along with tremendous anthropogenic pressures, billions of dollars have been spent every year to promote and save the PAs, yet rigorous quantified evaluation and interpretation of such PAs are lacking. Considering such knowledge gap, we have quantified the forest loss under the PAs and their buffer areas over the last 20 years (2001–2019) have been performed using Google Earth Engine. Furthermore, the potential deforestation risk zones were identified using the Maximum Entropy based predictive modelling. Outcome showed that the forest cover losses within the PAs were 114,463 ha and 782,781 ha within the buffer zones in the last 20 years. Additionally, high deforestation risk zones were mainly found in the central and southwestern parts of the Peruvian Amazon and interestingly close to the navigable riverbanks. We have received high prediction accuracy (AUC 0.964) and further validated with high-resolution PlanetScope imageries. This study will be useful for policy interventions and conservation measures.

Deforestation risk in the Peruvian Amazon basin

SummaryThe prevention of tropical forest deforestation is essential for mitigating climate change. We tested the machine learning algorithm Maxent to predict deforestation across the Peruvian Amazon. We used official annual 2001–2019 deforestation data to develop a predictive model and to test the model’s accuracy using near-real-time forest loss data for 2020. Distance from agricultural land and distance from roads were the predictor variables that contributed most to the final model, indicating that a narrower set of variables contribute nearly 80% of the information necessary for prediction at scale. The permutation importance indicating variable information not present in the other variables was also highest for distance from agricultural land and distance from roads, at 40.5% and 14.3%, respectively. The predictive model registered 73.2% of the 2020 early alerts in a high or very high risk category; less than 1% of forest cover in national protected areas were registered as very high risk, but buffer zones were far more vulnerable, with 15% of forest cover being in this category. To our knowledge, this is the first study to use 19 years of annual data for deforestation risk. The open-source machine learning method could be applied to other forest regions, at scale, to improve strategies for reducing future deforestation.

Emerging threats from deforestation and forest fragmentation in the Wallacea centre of endemism

The Wallacea biogeographic region of Sulawesi, the Moluccas and Lesser Sunda is globally renowned for exceptional endemism, but is currently emerging as a development frontier in Indonesia. We assessed patterns and drivers of forest loss and fragmentation across the region, and used dynamic deforestation models to project future deforestation to 2053. Up to 10 231 km2 was deforested between 2000 and 2018, and a further 49 570 km2 is expected to be lost by 2053, with annual deforestation rates ranging between 0.09% and 2.17% in different sub-regions (average: 1.23%). Key biodiversity areas (priority sites for endemic and threatened biodiversity) are particularly vulnerable to deforestation if they are small, coastal and unprotected. Sub-regional variation in deforestation patterns and drivers must be acknowledged if conservation interventions are to be targeted and effective. We provide a valuable baseline from which to monitor Wallacea’s new development course, as Indonesia undergoes profound policy changes that will provide both challenges and opportunities for environmental governance and conservation.

Forest loss in Indonesian New Guinea (2001–2019): Trends, drivers and outlook

The rich forests of Indonesian New Guinea are understudied and threatened. We used satellite data to examine annual forest loss, road development and plantation expansion from 2001 to 2019, then developed a model to predict future deforestation. No previous studies have attempted such a detailed assessment of past and future deforestation. In 2019, 34.29 million hectares (Mha), or 83% of Indonesian New Guinea, supported old-growth forest. Over nineteen years, 2% (0.75 Mha) were cleared: 45% (0.34 Mha) converted to industrial plantations, roads, mine tailings, or other uses near cities; 55% (0.41 Mha) cleared by transient processes including selective natural timber extraction, inland water bodies-related processes, fires, and shifting agriculture. Industrial plantations expanded by 0.23 Mha, with the majority (0.21 Mha; 28% of forest loss) replacing forests and reaching 0.28 Mha in 2019 (97% oil palm; 3% pulpwood). The Trans-Papua Highway, a ~4000 km national investment project, increased by 1554 km. Positive correlations between highway and plantations expansion indicate these are linked processes. Plantations and roads expanded rapidly after 2011, peaked in 2015/16, and declined thereafter. Indonesian government allocated 2.62 Mha of land for the development of industrial plantations (90% oil palm 10% pulpwood) of which 74% (1.95 Mha) remained forest in 2019. A spatial model predicts that an additional 4.5 Mha of forest could be cleared by 2036 if Indonesian New Guinea follows similar relationships to Indonesian Borneo. We highlight the opportunities for policy reform and the importance of working with indigenous communities, local leaders, and provincial government to protect the biological and cultural richness still embodied in this remarkable region.

Assessing Lignin Decomposition and Soil Organic Carbon Contents Across a Tropical Savannah-Rainforest Boundary in Guyana

The soils beneath the rainforest of Guyana have the potential to hold, and release, large stores of carbon under land use and climate change. Little is known about soil carbon stocks or molecular dynamics in this region. This study therefore aims to elucidate differences in the molecular (lignin and tannin) and bulk soil organic carbon (SOC) stocks in different ‘sub-environments’ along a rainforest-savannah boundary, setting a framework for further investigation into the soil carbon dynamics of the region. Bulk SOC analysis shows that Gleysols have the highest stocks, particularly those under rainforest vegetation (swamp and island forests surrounded by savannah), whereas Plinthosols have significantly lower SOC stocks. Texture and soil water content analysis indicates that predominantly clay soils play a role in high SOC stocks, whilst predominantly sandy soils prevent SOC stocks from accumulating. Clay and sand are present in both Gleysols and Plinthosols, to different extents. Analysis of lignin and tannin in surface soils of the sub-environments reveals clear differences in molecular composition. Heavily degraded lignin signatures in rainforest Gleysols suggests a surrounding physio-chemical environment which promotes their degradation. Conversely, Plinthosols beneath woodland within the savannah have the greatest amount of lignin and tannin products. The presence of the clay mineral kaolinite and iron oxide strengite in these soils indicates a low ability for protection or complexing of organic matter. Therefore, water content and microbial activity may play a more important role in the degradation of lignin and tannin, as well as the SOC stock. With the potential for future deforestation due to land use or climate change, the high lignin degradation of Gleysols indicates a vulnerability to savannah encroachment. Forest Islands isolated from the main forest biome are the most vulnerable to change, and could lose a significant proportion of their SOC stock in a transition to savannah.

Massive soybean expansion in South America since 2000 and implications for conservation.

A prominent goal of policies mitigating climate change and biodiversity loss is to achieve zero-deforestation in the global supply chain of key commodities, such as palm oil and soybean. However, the extent and dynamics of deforestation driven by commodity expansion are largely unknown. Here we mapped annual soybean expansion in South America between 2000 and 2019 by combining satellite observations and sample field data. From 2000–2019, the area cultivated with soybean more than doubled from 26.4 Mha to 55.1 Mha. Most soybean expansion occurred on pastures originally converted from natural vegetation for cattle production. The most rapid expansion occurred in the Brazilian Amazon, where soybean area increased more than 10-fold, from 0.4 Mha to 4.6 Mha. Across the continent, 9% of forest loss was converted to soybean by 2016. Soy-driven deforestation was concentrated at the active frontiers, nearly half located in the Brazilian Cerrado. Efforts to limit future deforestation must consider how soybean expansion may drive deforestation indirectly by displacing pasture or other land uses. Holistic approaches that track land use across all commodities coupled with vegetation monitoring are required to maintain critical ecosystem services.

Deforestation and bird habitat loss in Colombia

Tropical deforestation continues at high rates in many regions, but it is often reported only in terms of area lost or its impacts on high-profile threatened species. Here, we examined the impact of both past and projected future deforestation on habitat extent for the entire assemblage of forest-dependent birds across the country with the greatest richness of bird species: Colombia. Of the 550 forest-dependent species analysed, almost all (n = 536; 96.5%) had lost habitat, and 18% had lost at least half of their habitat by 2015. We used the recently developed Loss Index (LI) to capture the severity of habitat loss for the forest bird assemblage, discovering that the current LI for Colombia is 35, which means 35% of bird species have lost at least 35% of their habitat. However, there were large regional differences. The national LI for Colombia is projected to rise to 43 by 2040 if recent forest loss trends continue. A threat assessment for the regionally-endemic species in the country showed that 12 (30%) of the species that are projected to lose 50% or more of their historical habitat by 2040 are not currently classified as threatened by the IUCN, suggesting that there are many unlisted species that face an imminent extinction threat from ongoing habitat loss. This extensive habitat depletion affecting entire species assemblages has significant implications for tropical forest ecosystems. We consider the risks this poses to ecosystem function and ecosystem service provision in Colombia's forests, and the ramifications of our findings for other tropical biodiversity hotspots.

Climate change reshapes the eco‐evolutionary dynamics of a Neotropical seed dispersal system

AbstractAimGlobal changes will redistribute biodiversity, reshaping ecological interactions and ecosystem processes. The decoupling in the distribution of plants and their mutualistic seed dispersers, for instance, may have overlooked eco‐evolutionary effects. How animal‐dispersed plants will respond to changes in the distribution of their seed dispersers remains largely an open question. Here, we forecast the consequences of climate change and frugivory interactions for the spatial distribution and seed size evolution of a Neotropical palm species.LocationAtlantic forests of South America.Time periodPresent day, end of 21st century.Major taxa studiedThirty‐two species of frugivorous birds, and a palm (Euterpe edulis).MethodsFuture patterns of animal–plant co‐occurrence were derived from ecological niche models, climate forecasts, projections of future forest loss, and seed dispersal simulations. We further explored the evolutionary effect of the spatial reorganization of interactions by modelling palm seed sizes as a function of changes in the distribution of frugivore traits.ResultsOur models indicate that future climate change and deforestation may reduce the palm’s suitable distribution by 20%–50%. However, our simulations suggest that 66% of all remaining future suitable distribution (76,200 km2) would still be inaccessible to the palm without the active dispersal of seeds by frugivores. In addition, novel frugivore communities are projected to have smaller mean body mass and gape size (−23% and −10%, respectively), due to the loss of large frugivores, which may translate into a 6%–17% reduction of seed sizes across the palm’s remaining distribution.Main conclusionsOur projections indicate that frugivore seed dispersal may be critical to allow occupancy of future habitat by animal‐dispersed plants. However, loss of large frugivores may affect trait selection regimes, creating hotspots of plant evolution towards smaller seeds. We argue that such complex dynamics emerging from species‐specific responses to global change may reshape the distribution and evolution of several interacting partners worldwide.

Psychosocial drivers of land management behaviour: How threats, norms, and context influence deforestation intentions.

Understanding how private landholders make deforestation decisions is of paramount importance for conservation. Behavioural frameworks from the social sciences have a lot to offer researchers and practitioners, yet these insights remain underutilised in describing what drives landholders' deforestation intentions under important political, social, and management contexts. Using survey data of private landholders in Queensland, Australia, we compare the ability of two popular behavioural models to predict future deforestation intentions, and propose a more integrated behavioural model of deforestation intentions. We found that the integrated model outperformed other models, revealing the importance of threat perceptions, attitudes, and social norms for predicting landholders' deforestation intentions. Social capital, policy uncertainty, and years of experience are important contextual moderators of these psychological factors. We conclude with recommendations for promoting behaviour change in this deforestation hotspot and highlight how others can adopt similar approaches to illuminate more proximate drivers of environmental behaviours in other contexts.

Rapidly Accelerating Deforestation in Cambodia’s Mekong River Basin: A Comparative Analysis of Spatial Patterns and Drivers

The Mekong River is a globally important river system, known for its unique flood pulse hydrology, ecological productivity, and biodiversity. Flooded forests provide critical terrestrial nutrient inputs and habitat to support aquatic species. However, the Mekong River is under threat from anthropogenic stressors, including deforestation from land cultivation and urbanization, and dam construction that inundates forests and encourages road development. This study investigated spatio-temporal patterns of deforestation in Cambodia and portions of neighboring Laos and Vietnam that form the Srepok–Sesan–Sekong watershed. A random forest model predicted tree cover change over a 25-year period (1993–2017) using the Landsat satellite archive. Then, a statistical predictive deforestation model was developed using annual-resolution predictors such as land-cover change, hydropower development, forest fragmentation, and socio-economic, topo-edaphic and climatic predictors. The results show that almost 19% of primary forest (nearly 24,000 km2) was lost, with more deforestation in floodplain (31%) than upland (18%) areas. Our results corroborate studies showing extremely high rates of deforestation in Cambodia. Given the rapidly accelerating deforestation rates, even in protected areas and community forests, influenced by a growing population and economy and extreme poverty, our study highlights landscape features indicating an increased risk of future deforestation, supporting a spatial framework for future conservation and mitigation efforts.

Coastal carbon cycle changes following mangrove loss

AbstractGlobal mangrove loss is occurring from deforestation and extreme climatic events, but changes to the coastal carbon cycle following mangrove mortality and/or loss are not well understood. In 2015/2016, a massive climate‐driven mangrove dieback event occurred over ~ 1000 km of Australian coastline. To assess carbon loss following mortality, carbon fluxes in adjacent living and dead forest areas were compared 8 and 20 months postforest dieback. Dead areas experienced an increase in soil CO2 efflux by ~ 189%, and a decrease in oceanic dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC) outwelling of ~ 50% relative to living areas. DIC outwelling (predominantly carbonate alkalinity) and soil CO2 efflux accounted for 81% and 16% of losses from the living forest, in comparison to 51% and 47%, respectively, from the dead forest. The dieback drove a shift from a dominance of oceanic carbon outwelling to increased atmospheric CO2 emissions and decreased alkalinity exports. This shift was likely driven by increased oxygen sediment permeation and the loss of mangrove net primary productivity. Combining our new observations with literature data, we found a logarithmic relationship between soil carbon loss and time since mangrove loss. Using this relationship, we estimate ongoing global carbon losses from historical mangrove deforestation and dieback could be 13.7 ± 9.4 Tg C yr−1, which is eightfold higher than previous estimates and offsets global mangrove carbon burial by ~ 60%. Even if no future deforestation occurred, we estimate ongoing carbon losses to the atmosphere and ocean from current global mangrove losses of 27 Tg C over the next 30 yr.

Water budget changes in the Amazon basin under RCP 8.5 and deforestation scenarios

We used climate models to assess the effects of 2 distinct anthropogenic forcings on the water budget in the Amazon basin: (1) increasing global greenhouse gases under the RCP8.5 scenario, and (2) land cover change caused by deforestation. The Eta regional climate model, driven by the Brazilian Earth System Model version 2.5 (BESM 2.5), was used to simulate the climate response under the RCP8.5 scenario and due to deforestation throughout the 21st century. Changes in energy and water budgets led to an increase in temperature that reached 5°C throughout the basin. In the RCP8.5 scenario, moisture convergence, precipitation and evapotranspiration all decreased. In this scenario, the positive feedback mechanism was predominant, as the reductions in evapotranspiration and moisture convergence acted in the same direction to reduce precipitation. In the future deforestation scenarios, reductions in precipitation were even stronger. In this case, the negative feedback mechanism predominated, in which the relative reduction in evapotranspiration was greater than the reduction in precipitation, leading to an increase in moisture convergence over the region. Changes in temperature and the water cycle were intensified in the future deforestation scenarios. These results show that the 2 anthropogenic factors can change the water budget and cause an imbalance in the climate-biome system in the Amazon basin, highlighting the need for public conservation policies to halt the increase in environmental degradation in the Amazon basin and to reduce greenhouse gases emissions due the burning of fossil fuels.