Future Decades Research Articles

Future Changes of Wind Speed and Wind Energy Potentials in EURO‐CORDEX Ensemble Simulations

AbstractRenewable energy production is strongly influenced by weather and climate. Regional climate projections can be useful to quantify climate change impacts on renewable energies. With this aim, we analyze future changes of wind speed and wind energy potentials using a multimodel ensemble of EURO‐CORDEX simulations at 12 km and three‐hourly resolution, considering nine different global and regional climate model chains. A comparison between modeled historical 10 m wind speeds and ERA‐Interim‐driven evaluation runs for the same regional climate models uncovers some substantial model biases. The bias‐corrected 10 m wind speeds are extrapolated to the hub height of a wind turbine to derive gridded wind energy output (Eout). The ensemble mean responses project only small changes of mean annual and winter Eout for large parts of Europe in future decades, but a considerable decrease for summer Eout. In terms of variability, increasing intraannual and interdaily variabilities are projected for large parts of northern, central, and eastern Europe. While the ensemble spread is quite large for interdaily variability, results are more robust for intraannual variability. With respect to wind speed characteristics relevant for wind energy production, a robust increase in the occurrence of low wind speeds (<3 m/s) is detected. Due to a combination of higher annual mean Eout and lower intraannual variability, climate change could be beneficial for regions like Baltic and Aegean Sea. For large parts of Germany, France, and Iberia, a lower mean Eout and increased intraannual variability may imply larger temporal/spatial fluctuations in future wind energy production and therefore a more challenging wind energy management.

Chronic lung disease, lung regeneration and future therapeutic strategies

Chronic lung diseases have been recognized as one of the world's leading causes of death in recent decades. Lacking effective treatments brings the patients not only bad quality of life but also higher risk for lung cancer development. By increasing the understanding of deeper mechanism of how lung develops and regenerates, researchers now focus on studying lung regenerative medicine, aiming to apply different and more efficient therapies to treat chronic lung diseases. This review will provide a wide picture of both basic lung developmental, regeneration mechanism and different designed strategies for treating chronic lung diseases in the future decades.

Irrigation with salt water affects growth, yield, fruit quality, storability and marker-gene expression in cherry tomato

ABSTRACTThe use of saline water for plant production will become increasingly necessary over future decades. In some cases, fruit quality such as in tomato, can be improved by irrigation with saline water. The influence of different salt concentrations on physiological responses and the expression of some selected genes of cherry tomato (Solanum lycopersicum L), cv. West Virginia 106, was examined. Tomato plants were grown in peatmoss substrate and irrigated with 0, 25, 50, 75, 100 or 150 mM sodium chloride (NaCl) in a glasshouse. The NaCl treatments of 75, 100 and 150 mM salt resulted in shorter plants, decreased stem width, a lower plant dry weight, fewer flowers, and smaller leaf area, while yield was reduced by treatment with concentrations of 50 mM NaCl and above. Average fruit weight and fruit number were also negatively affected by treatment with 50 mM salt and above. Salinity treatment led to increased fruit total soluble solids, titratable acidity and firmness and improved the taste index. Salt-responsive marker genes identified in Moneymaker were also induced in cherry tomato but not at the highest salt concentrations. Our results indicated that cherry tomato treated with 25 mM NaCl produced fruit with improved quality in comparison with non-salinized control plants without compromising yield, while at 50 and 75 mM the improved fruit quality was accompanied by a reduction in yield.

Drivers and rates of stock assessments in the United States.

Fisheries management is most effective when based on scientific estimates of sustainable fishing rates. While some simple approaches allow estimation of harvest limits, more data-intensive stock assessments are generally required to evaluate the stock’s biomass and fishing rates relative to sustainable levels. Here we evaluate how stock characteristics relate to the rate of new assessments in the United States. Using a statistical model based on time-to-event analysis and 569 coastal marine fish and invertebrate stocks landed in commercial fisheries, we quantify the impact of region, habitat, life-history, and economic factors on the annual probability of being assessed. Although the majority of landings come from assessed stocks in all regions, less than half of the regionally-landed species currently have been assessed. As expected, our time-to-event model identified landed tonnage and ex-vessel price as the dominant factors determining increased rates of new assessments. However, we also found that after controlling for landings and price, there has been a consistent bias towards assessing larger-bodied species. A number of vulnerable groups such as rockfishes (Scorpaeniformes) and groundsharks (Carcharhiniformes) have a relatively high annual probability of being assessed after controlling for their relatively small tonnage and low price. Due to relatively low landed tonnage and price of species that are currently unassessed, our model suggests that the number of assessed stocks will increase more slowly in future decades.

Genetic integrity, diversity, and population structure of the Cascade red fox

The Cascade red fox (CRF) occurred historically throughout subalpine and alpine habitats in the Cascade Range of Washington and southernmost British Columbia, but now appears to be extremely rare. Causes for its apparent decline are unknown, as is the current distribution and connectivity of its populations. Additionally, the introduction of nonnative (fur-farm) red foxes to surrounding lowland areas during the past century raises concerns about their expansion to higher elevations and potential hybridization with the CRF. We conducted noninvasive genetic sampling and analyses of CRFs in a 5575 km2 region in the southern portion of its range, which is thought to contain a significant proportion of the current population. We obtained 154 mitochondrial DNA sequences and microsatellite genotypes for 51 individuals to determine trends in genetic diversity, assess evidence for nonnative introgression, and describe population structure. Although heterozygosity (He = 0.60, SE = 0.03) was only slightly lower than an estimate obtained from samples collected during the 1980s (He = 0.64, SE = 0.05), genetic effective size of the current population based on a one-sample estimate was very small (Ne = 16.0, 95% CI 13.3–19.4), suggesting a loss of genetic diversity and the potential for inbreeding depression in future decades. Genetic connectivity was high and we found no evidence for hybridization with nonnative lowland red foxes. Thus, although a small effective population size indicates the possibility of inbreeding depression and loss of evolutionary potential, high connectivity and genetic integrity could mitigate this to some extent, indicating that the population could respond to conservation efforts. Ultimately, successful conservation of this species depends on a better understanding of the factors that originally contributed to its decline and that currently limit its growth.

Potential impact of future climate change on sugarcane under dryland conditions in Mexico

AbstractAssessments of impacts of future climate change on widely grown sugarcane varieties can guide decision‐making and help ensure the economic stability of numerous rural households. This study assessed the potential impact of future climatic change on sugarcane grown under dryland conditions in Mexico and identified key climate factors influencing yield. The Agricultural Land Management Alternatives with Numerical Assessment Criteria (ALMANAC) model was used to simulate sugarcane growth and yield under current and future climate conditions. Management, soil and climate data from farm sites in Jalisco (Pacific Mexico) and San Luis Potosi (Northeastern Mexico) were used to simulate baseline yields. Baseline climate was developed with 30‐year historical data from weather stations close to the sites. Future climate for three decadal periods (2021–2050) was constructed by adding forecasted climate values from downscaled outputs of global circulation models to baseline values. Climate change impacts were assessed by comparing baseline yields with those in future decades under the A2 scenario. Results indicate positive impacts of future climate change on sugarcane yields in the two regions, with increases of 1%–13% (0.6–8.0 Mg/ha). As seen in the multiple correlation analysis, evapotranspiration explains 77% of the future sugarcane yield in the Pacific Region, while evapotranspiration and number of water and temperature stress days account for 97% of the future yield in the Northeastern Region. The midsummer drought (canicula) in the Pacific Region is expected to be more intense and will reduce above‐ground biomass by 5%–13% (0.5–1.7 Mg/ha) in July–August. Harvest may be advanced by 1–2 months in the two regions to achieve increases in yield and avoid early flowering that could cause sucrose loss of 0.49 Mg ha−1 month−1. Integrating the simulation of pest and diseases under climate change in crop modelling may help fine‐tune yield forecasting.

The role of geodiversity in providing ecosystem services at broad scales

Mapping of ecosystem services (ESs) provide valuable information on the geographical variation of ESs and their relation to overall diversity. Although the relationship between biodiversity and ESs has been intensively explored, little is known how geodiversity (i.e., variety of geological, geomorphological and soil features) is associated with different ESs. We studied 1) the spatial variation of geodiversity and biodiversity in relation to six ESs (i.e., forest carbon budget, potential supply of groundwater, milk and meat production, crop production, amount of free-time residences and nationally valuable landscapes) using variation partitioning (VP), and 2) the spatial overlap between geodiversity and biodiversity and ESs using generalized additive models (GAM) in 1006 intensively surveyed grid cells of 100 km2 located across Finland. In the VP, biodiversity independently explained more of the variation than geodiversity for majority of the ESs. However, shared explanation ability of biodiversity and geodiversity was considerable for majority of ESs (forest carbon budget: 41.3%, crop production: 15.0%, free-time residences: 15.2% and valuable landscapes: 7.3%), often exceeding that of both independent contributions. GAMs indicated that increase in both biodiversity and geodiversity enhances forest carbon budget (D2 = 66.8% and 12.4%, respectively), potential production of groundwater (8.3% and 0.1%), crop production (35.7% and 8.9%), free-time residences (40.0% and 7.9%) and valuable landscapes (11.6% and 6.9%). However, the positive relationship between diversity and ESs levelled off for many of the ESs. Our findings suggest that geodiversity is an important complementing factor in explaining spatial variation of the ESs in high-latitude regions. We also found dominantly synergic effects between abiotic diversity and ESs. Thus, our study results highlight the need to more deeply incorporate abiotic diversity into ESs research. Environmental conservation and management would benefit from the more comprehensive integration of geodiversity to ESs research along with the changing environmental conditions of future decades.

Prediction of effective climate change indicators using statistical downscaling approach and impact assessment on pearl millet (Pennisetum glaucum L.) yield through Genetic Algorithm in Punjab, Pakistan

Climate change involves long term changes in climate including increase in temperature, elevated CO2 and uneven distribution of rainfall quantity and periodicity. Though daily mean temperature (Tmean) is considered a widely useful index of assessment of climate change, averaging can obscure some of the variations expected in diurnal temperature range (DTR). The aim of this study was to evaluate the effectiveness of DTR relative to Tmean as a metric for predicting millet yield using a combination of a historical dataset (1980–2010) and two climate model (MIROC5 and GFDL) projections for 2017–2046 under RCP 4.5 and 8.5 across two different environments (arid, Layyah and semi-arid, Faisalabad) of Punjab, Pakistan. Provincial datasets of pearl millet yields were collected and checked for an empirical relationship between Tmean, DTR and crop yield. The mean of projections showed increasing DTR relative to baseline in both environments. Projected Tmax and Tmin were highly correlated (0.90–0.99) for both environments and climate models. MIROC5 predicted Tmax and Tmin well and GFDL performed efficiently in predicting precipitation by 2046. The data also showed more hot days in future decades and erractic rainfall pattern by 2046 in both environments. The Genetic Algorithm (GA) appeared to be a good approach to assess climate change impact on pearl millet yield in Punjab, Pakistan, predicting negative yield impacts (11–12%) due to future warming. We suggest broadening tests of this method to other cases around the world, with similar climate regimes.

Elders in modern Kenya: ‘Dying institutions’ or ‘reinventing themselves’?

ABSTRACTThe terms elders and Councils of Elders (CoE) do not appear in the Constitution of Kenya 2010 (CoK), and some scholars of African politics have suggested that these institutions are at odds with the ideals of modern democratic governance and will become increasingly less relevant in future decades. Other scholars stress their continued relevance at the local level, for example through providing affordable and easily accessible forms of alternative dispute resolution (ADR). We define the different categories of elders and CoE and use case studies from different parts of the country to illustrate their contributions to ADR and their relationship with government officials. We find that the ‘local’ elders and CoE have a continued and positive role that gets relatively little attention in the Kenyan media, in contrast to more prominent groups that seek influence in national politics, especially in the months preceding national elections. Despite their gerontocratic and patriarchal roots, these local groups show signs of evolving to include younger people and women in their membership; they address issues of real concern to the communities they serve. In recent years the Kenyan judiciary has begun to explore ways of encouraging the use of local CoE in ADR, and both national and county governments are recognising the need to provide more financial and logistical support to these bodies.

Crigler-Najjar Syndrome: Current Perspectives and the Application of Clinical Genetics.

Crigler-Najjar syndrome (CNS, OMIM: 218800) is the paradigm of an inborn error of metabolism and a rare genetic disease with an estimated incidence of 0.6-1.0 per million live births. Discrimination between CNS subtypes is usually done on the basis of the clinical criteria, such as response to phenobarbital treatment and other molecular and functional characteristics. The identification of four novel pathogenic mutations and the analysis of residual activity of missense in UGT1A1 gene are useful for clinical diagnosis, and may reveal a new insight in enzyme activity, whereas the identification of pathogenic mutations will accelerate genetic counseling for newly identified CNS patients. Phototherapy, orthotropic liver transplantation, liver cell transplantation and gene therapy are treatment choices and candidates to fight back this syndrome. Due to the promising reports of gene therapy in small animal models, gene therapy approaches are expected to continue in preclinical research for developing safe and effective treatment of CNS. Gene transfer vectors using recombinant viruses, such as Adenovirus have been applied successfully in transferring UGT1A1 gene to the liver of Gunn rat model of CNS. In spite of remaining safety and efficiency issues, gene therapy promises to be a realistic treatment modality for CNS during the future decade.

Patterns of Climate Extremes in the Coastal and Highland Regions of Balochistan, Pakistan

Abstract Climatic extremes have direct and indirect effects on an ecosystem, whereby thermal variations bring warm and cold weather, and hydrological anomalies cause droughts and floods. Changing patterns of 13 temperature and 11 precipitation extreme indices for a 36-yr period (1980–2015) for four cities of the Balochistan province of Pakistan (Pasni, Jiwani, Khuzdar, and Dalbadin) were computed using RClimdex. A nonparametric Mann–Kendall test and Sen’s slope estimates were used to determine the statistical significance and magnitude of a trend, respectively. Most of the indices calculated for temperature extremes show statistically significant changes in their historic pattern, depicting a clear picture of warming in the regions. The indices calculated for precipitation extremes show statistically significant as well as nonsignificant results, depicting asymmetrical droughts in the region. If the patterns of humid weather with hot and wet extremes in the coastal cities of Balochistan continue for a couple of future decades, there will be challenges in implementing the multibillion-dollar Balochistan coastal development projects of the Pakistani port of Gwadar—a doorway to the Middle East for Chinese-planned business endeavors through Pakistan.

Local Effects of Forests on Temperatures across Europe

Forests affect local climate through biophysical processes in terrestrial ecosystems. Due to the spatial and temporal heterogeneity of ecosystems in Europe, climate responses to forests vary considerably with diverse geographic and seasonal patterns. Few studies have used an empirical analysis to examine the effect of forests on temperature and the role of the background climate in Europe. In this study, we aimed to quantitatively determine the effects of forest on temperature in different seasons with MODIS (MODerate-resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer) land surface temperature (LST) data and in situ air temperature measurements. First, we compared the differences in LSTs between forests and nearby open land. Then, we paired 48 flux sites with nearby weather stations to quantify the effects of forests on surface air temperature. Finally, we explored the role of background temperatures on the above forests effects. The results showed that (1) forest in Europe generally increased LST and air temperature in northeastern Europe and decreased LST and air temperature in other areas; (2) the daytime cooling effect was dominate and produced a net cooling effect from forests in the warm season. In the cold season, daytime and nighttime warming effects drove the net effect of forests; (3) the effects of forests on temperatures were mainly negatively correlated with the background temperatures in Europe. Under extreme climate conditions, the cooling effect of forests will be stronger during heatwaves or weaker during cold spring seasons; (4) the background temperature affects the spatiotemporal distribution of differences in albedo and evapotranspiration (forest minus open land), which determines the spatial, seasonal and interannual effects of forests on temperature. The extrapolation of the results could contribute not only to model validation and development but also to appropriate land use policies for future decades under the background of global warming.

Latitudinal effects on phenology near the northern limit of figs in China

The interaction between pollinating wasps and figs is an obligate plant-insect mutualism, and the ca. 750 Ficus species are mainly tropical. Climatic constraints may limit species distributions through their phenology and this seems particularly likely for figs, where phenological mismatches can cause local extinction of the short-lived pollinators. We therefore compared the phenologies of Ficus altissima, F. racemosa and F. semicordata in tropical Xishuangbanna (21°55′N) and subtropical Liuku (25°50′N), SW China, to understand what factors limit fig distributions near their northern limits. All species produced synchronous crops of syconia in Xishuangbanna but production in Liuku was continuous, which may help maintain pollinator populations. However, in general, we found decreased fitness at the northern site: slower syconium development, so fewer crops each year; fewer seeds per syconium (two species); and fewer pollinators and more non-pollinators per syconium, so less pollen is dispersed. This is most easily explained by colder winters, although low humidities may also contribute, and suggests the northern limit is set by temperature constraints on reproductive phenology. If so, the warming predicted for future decades is expected to enhance the fitness of northern populations of figs and, in the longer term, allow them to shift their range limits northwards.

Review on the Extraction Methods of Crude oil from all Generation Biofuels in last few Decades

The ever growing demand for the energy fuels, economy of oil, depletion of energy resources and environmental protection are the inevitable challenges required to be solved meticulously in future decades in order to sustain the life of humans and other creatures. Switching to alternate fuels that are renewable, biodegradable, economically and environmentally friendly can quench the minimum thirst of fuel demands, in addition to mitigation of climate changes. At this moment, production of biofuels has got prominence. The term biofuels broadly refer to the fuels derived from living matter either animals or plants. Among the competent biofuels, biodiesel is one of the promising alternates for diesel engines. Biodiesel is renewable, environmentally friendly, safe to use with wide applications and biodegradable. Due to which, it has become a major focus of intensive global research and development of alternate energy. The present review has been focused specifically on biodiesel. Concerning to the biodiesel production, the major steps includes lipid extraction followed by esterification/transesterification. For the extraction of lipids, several extraction techniques have been put forward irrespective of the generations and feed stocks used. This review provides theoretical background on the two major extraction methods, mechanical and chemical extraction methods. The practical issues of each extraction method such as efficiency of extraction, extraction time, oil sources and its pros and cons are discussed. It is conceived that congregating information on oil extraction methods may helpful in further research advancements to ease biofuel production.

Combining Co-Benefits and Stakeholders Perceptions into Green Infrastructure Selection for Flood Risk Reduction

An important increase in flood risk levels is expected in future decades in many areas around the globe. In addition, the traditional approaches for flood management offer options with low sustainability. As a response, the use of non-traditional drainage measures, also called green infrastructures, has been increasingly suggested in the last years. One important reason for their increasing popularity has been the co-benefits that they offer to the environment. The development of an efficient planning for sustainable urban drainage systems is a complex process that needs the involvement of multiple stakeholders. Moreover, the measures to be adopted should be evaluated considering their potential to achieve multiple benefits related to human well-being, rather than just to flood risk management. In this work, we propose a framework for the selection of green infrastructures on the basis of a co-benefits analysis. The aim is to include the achievement of co-benefits and human well-being into decision-making for flood management, considering the stakeholders’ perceptions to define the most important benefits to be enhanced. The application of the framework presented here to a case study in Ayutthaya, Thailand, shows the importance of including different stakeholder’s opinions. In addition, it shows that decision makers should consider locally defined co-benefits as well as flood risk reduction when defining which green infrastructures to apply.

An integrated model of water resources optimization allocation based on projection pursuit model – Grey wolf optimization method in a transboundary river basin

Under the effects of global change, water crisis ranks as the top global risk in the future decade, and water conflict in transboundary river basins as well as the geostrategic competition led by it is most concerned. This study presents an innovative integrated PPMGWO model of water resources optimization allocation in a transboundary river basin, which is integrated through the projection pursuit model (PPM) and Grey wolf optimization (GWO) method. This study uses the Songhua River basin and 25 control units as examples, adopting the PPMGWO model proposed in this study to allocate the water quantity. Using water consumption in all control units in the Songhua River basin in 2015 as reference to compare with optimization allocation results of firefly algorithm (FA) and Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO) algorithms as well as the PPMGWO model, results indicate that the average difference between corresponding allocation results and reference values are 0.195 bil m3, 0.151 bil m3, and 0.085 bil m3, respectively. Obviously, the average difference of the PPMGWO model is the lowest and its optimization allocation result is closer to reality, which further confirms the reasonability, feasibility, and accuracy of the PPMGWO model. And then the PPMGWO model is adopted to simulate allocation of available water quantity in Songhua River basin in 2018, 2020, and 2030. The simulation results show water quantity which could be allocated in all controls demonstrates an overall increasing trend with reasonable and equal exploitation and utilization of water resources in the Songhua River basin in future. In addition, this study has a certain reference value and application meaning to comprehensive management and water resources allocation in other transboundary river basins.

Global Lithium Flow 1994-2015: Implications for Improving Resource Efficiency and Security.

Lithium has been widely recognized as an essential metal for next-generation clean technologies. With the aim of identifying opportunities for improving lithium resource efficiency and security, this study establishes a long-term trade-linked material flow analysis framework to analyze lithium flow throughout the technological life cycle and across national boundaries during the 1994-2015 period. The results indicate that with broader purposes identified, global lithium production and consumption experienced rapid growth over the past decades. A widely distributed, actively functioning lithium trade network has been established, with the United States, China, the European Union, Chile, and Australia playing essential roles. Global lithium in-use stock, which is mainly embodied in ceramics and glass, reached 29 kilotons in 2015. The lithium stock contained in battery-related applications, together with the huge potential production of stock in future decades, represents a major opportunity for secondary lithium recovery. In the context of intensive international trade, international cooperation on lithium waste management is extremely important. It is also suggested that there is a high risk of lithium shortage for countries with strong dependence on lithium import. The establishment of domestic lithium reserves may be an option for these countries.

A demographic projection of the contribution of assisted reproductive technologies to world population growth.

Enormous unmet needs for infertility treatment exist because access to assisted reproductive technologies is demographically skewed. Since the first IVF baby in 1978, the number of people conceived by reproductive technology has grown much faster than expected, reaching several million today and rapidly approaching 0.1% of the total world population. As more patients build families, and their children in turn become parents, the number owing their existence to assisted reproductive technologies, either directly or indirectly, will expand tremendously in future decades, but no attempts have been made hitherto to project the magnitude. We have projected growth to the year 2100, along with the fractional contribution to world population. The chief variable driving growth is access to fertility services. If it stagnates at current levels of about 400,000 babies per year, an estimated 157 million people alive at the end of the century will owe their lives to assisted reproductive technologies (1.4% of global population), but at an arbitrary upper limit of 30,000 extra births annually there will be 394 million additional people alive (3.5%). As the conquest of infertility continues, individuals who owe their lives to assisted reproductive technologies will quietly make a significant contribution to demographic growth as well as social progress.

Effect of increasing sea water temperature on the growth and toxin production of the benthic dinoflagellate Prorocentrum lima

In future decades, harmful algae blooms may increase in frequency in aquatic environments as a result of higher global temperatures (warming). This study tested the hypothesis that cell growth rate and Diarrethic Shellfish Poisoning (DSP) toxin (okadaic acid, OA; dinophysistoxin 1, DTX1) per cell of the benthic dinoflagellate Prorocentrum lima increases with temperature. P. lima cells were grown in f/2 medium at irradiances of 50 ± 15 µmol m−2 s−1 and photoperiod of 12 h L:12 h D. Cell abundance, photosynthetic efficiency (Fv/Fm), and nutrient consumption (NO3− + NO2− and PO43−) were also determined. P. lima optimum growth temperature was at 15 and 25°C but the highest Fv/Fm values showed no association to the maximum growth rate. P. lima showed lower cell growth rates and Fv/Fm values at both 5 and 30°C. Only free OA concentration per cell showed an increase with temperature up to 15°C. Highest lipophilic toxicity in P. lima was found during the stationary growth phase at low (10–15°C) and elevated (30°C) temperatures. Results from this study suggest that future changes to climatic conditions in coastal waters may lead to higher growth rates and cellular toxin levels in P. lima populations worldwide.

The effects of rainfall regimes and terracing on runoff and erosion in the Three Gorges area, China.

Changes in natural rainfall regimes have taken place and are expected to become more pronounced in future decades. These changes are also likely to be accompanied by changes in crop management practices. The main purpose of this study was to analyze runoff and soil loss in relation to rainfall regimes and terracing in the Three Gorges area, China. Based on 10years of field observation and k-mean clusters, 101 rainfall events were grouped into three rainfall regimes. Rainfall regime I was the group of events with strong rainfall intensity, high frequency, and short duration. Rainfall regime III consisted of events with low intensity, long duration, and high rainfall amount. Rainfall regime II was the aggregation of events of high intensity and amount, and less frequent occurrence. The results showed that event runoff coefficients were not significantly different among rainfall regimes. However, the average soil erosion rates in rainfall regimes I and II were significantly higher than that in regime III. The average erosion rates under rainfall regimes I, II, and III were 21.6, 39.7, and 9.8gm-2, respectively. The effect of rainfall regime on soil erosion also was changed by terracing. On unterraced cropland, soil erosion rate in rainfall regime I is significantly higher than that in regime III. However, the situation did not exist in unterraced orchard. Terracing significantly reduced runoff and soil erosion, and compensated the effects of rainfall regime on soil erosion, which indicated that runoff and erosion in terraced system may be little influenced by climate change. Based on these results, it was suggested more attention should be paid to the timing of rainfall events in relation to crop development and the high erosion on unterraced citrus orchard to control soil erosion in this area.