Future Commitments Research Articles

Experimental study on using advance demand information to mitigate the bullwhip effect via decentralised negotiations

This paper analyses experiment results to show that advance demand information (ADI) strategies have the potential to counteract the bullwhip effect and reduce supply chain costs in practice. The experiments are conducted with a new web-based interactive computer simulation game, where human players assuming the roles of suppliers not only make replenishment order decisions but also negotiate for agreements on ADI provision, consumption, and compensation. The game is designed with enhanced information provision and communication channels through which negotiations are conducted strictly between neighbouring suppliers. As such, the supply chain is kept decentralised (i.e. no information is shared across supply chain stages). The effectiveness of ADI strategies is tested in a variety of settings; e.g. when supply chain parameters are heterogeneous, when suppliers have (or do not have) partial knowledge on the customer demand, and when suppliers are inexperienced with the ADI strategy. It is observed repeatedly that the ADI negotiation mechanism significantly improves the supply chain performance, reducing not only the total chain-wide cost but also every individual supplier's cost. This improvement is generally achieved by the downstream suppliers (e.g. retailer) making future order commitments (while carrying higher inventory), which allows upstream suppliers to gain sufficient cost reduction and provide compensation to the downstream suppliers.

Location and Lease Intensity

U.S. firms lease assets extensively. We find that, during 1980–2011, the average U.S. firm has a lease intensity of about 40%. Or, the average firm has present and future (up to five years) rent commitments equal to 16.6% of their total assets. We investigate whether agency costs between the lessor and the lessee affect the lease intensity of firms. To do so, we examine the impact of firms' location on the use of operating leases. The main idea of our paper is that, because obtaining information and monitoring is costly for potential lessors, especially when a lessee is relatively far away from financial centers, rural firms are less likely to use operating leases. Consistent with this hypothesis, we show that rural firms tend to have lower lease intensities than similar urban and small city firms. In addition, we find that firms with higher levels of debt capacity lease less and firms that face more financial constraint lease more. Our findings are robust to industry and lease maturity controls and consistent with the existence of an agency problem associated with leasing.

Lost Autonomy, Nationalism and Separatism

Case studies suggest that ethnic groups with autonomous institutional arrangements are more prone to secede, but other evidence indicates that autonomy reduces the likelihood of secession. To address this debate, we disaggregate their autonomy status into three categories—currently autonomous, never autonomous, and lost autonomy—and then unpack how each shapes the logic of collective action. We argue groups that were never autonomous are unlikely to mobilize due to a lack of collective action capacity, whereas currently autonomous groups may have the capacity but often lack the motivation. Most important, groups that have lost autonomy often possess both strong incentives and the capacity to pursue secession, which facilitates collective action. Moreover, autonomy retraction weakens the government’s ability to make future credible commitments to redress grievances. We test these conjectures with data on the autonomous status and separatist behavior of 324 groups in more than 100 countries from 1960 to 2000. Our analysis shows clear empirical results regarding the relationship between autonomy status and separatism. Most notably, we find that formerly autonomous groups are the most likely to secede, and that both currently autonomous and never autonomous groups are much less likely.

Climate change and plankton phenology in freshwater: current trends and future commitments

A solid body of empirical, experimental and theoretical evidence accumulated over recent years indicated that freshwater plankton experienced advance in phenology in response to climate change. Despite rapidly growing evidence for phenological changes, we still lack a comprehensive understanding of how climate change alters plankton phenology in freshwater. To overcome current limitations, we need to shed some light on trends and constraints in current research. The goal of this study is to identify current trends and gaps based on analysis of selected papers, by the help of which we can facilitate further advance in the field. We searched the literature for plankton phenology and confined our search to studies where climate change has been proposed to alter plankton phenology and rates of changes were quantified. We did not restrict our search for empirical contributions; experimental and theoretical studies were considered as well. In the following we discuss the spatio-temporal setting of selected studies, contributions of different taxonomic groups, emerging methodological constraints, measures of phenological trends; and finally give a list of recommendations on how to improve our understanding in the field. The majority of studies were confined to deep lakes with a skewed geographical distribution toward Central Europe, where scientists have long been engaged in limnology. Despite these findings, recent studies suggest that plankton in running waters may experience change in phenology with similar magnitude. Average rate of advancement in phenology of freshwater plankton exceeded those of the marine plankton and the global average. Increasing study duration was not coupled either with increasing contribution of discontinuous data or with increasing rates of phenological changes. Future studies may benefit from i) delivering longterm data across scientific and political boundaries; ii) extending study sites to broader geographical areas with a more explicit consideration of running waters; iii) applying plankton functional groups; iv) increasing the application of satellite data to quantify phytoplankton bloom phenology; v) extending analyses of time series beyond the spring period; vi) using various metrics to quantify variation in phenology; vii) combining empirical, experimental and theoretical approaches; and last but not least viii) paying more attention to emergence dynamics, nonresponding species and trophic mismatch.

The Government Debt Iceberg

The Government Debt Iceberg

Aid securitisation: beyond IFFIm

The International Finance Facility for Immunization (IFFIm), which securitised future aid commitments by donor countries, has been quite successful in providing considerable predictable and front-loaded funding in support of immunisation programs in scores of poor countries. Since official development assistance (ODA) as well as private capital flows to poor countries is likely to remain scarce in the current financial environment, the paper evaluates the prospects of setting up IFFIm-like mechanisms to fund a broad range of development objectives. Two broad conclusions emerge. First, replicating IFFIm could prove challenging largely because donor pledges are likely to lack the desired credibility. Second, certain credit enhancements like third party guarantees, excess coverage, and channelling of pledges through a preferred creditor like the World Bank, however, could overcome this deficiency. Finally, advance market commitments (AMCs) and cash on delivery (COD) are alternatives that could be used to bring in some of the advantages of the IFFIm-like financial structures.

The debate on rented assets capitalization: The economic impact on family firms

International accounting regulators wish to include “rented” assets and future payment commitments on their balance sheets. This article shows how such a proposal would affect family enterprises. Because the literature on family firms suggests that they have particular finance structures and tend to avoid excessive debt levels, a significant effect is expected. We build on the capitalization method and look for consequences on firms’ business analyses. Additionally, we run a regression analysis to determine the “family nature” effect. The results show that family firms would be significantly affected, particularly with respect to leverage. When sector is considered, the retail sector is the most affected.

Strategic Effects of Future Environmental Policy Commitments: Climate Change, Solar Radiation Management and Correlated Air Pollutants

We study the effects of environmental policy commitments in a futuristic world in which solar radiation management (SRM) can be utilized to reduce climate change damages. Carbon and sulfur dioxide emissions (correlated pollutants) can be reduced through tradable permits. We show that if both nations simultaneously commit to carbon permit policies, national SRM levels rise with the carbon quotas. Alternatively, if they simultaneously commit to SRM policies, the global temperature falls with each unit increase in the global SRM level. We also demonstrate that a nation always prefers to be a leader in either SRM or carbon policy.

SAVING-INVESTMENT NEXUS IN DEVELOPING COUNTRIES: DOES FINANCIAL DEVELOPMENT MATTER?

The Feldstein-Horioka puzzle is re-examined using a sample of 20 sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) countries. Unlike the extant literature we demonstrate the expediency of sustenance of financial sector reforms for the saving-investment nexus in SSA. Findings showed saving retention coefficients similar in magnitude to those already reported for developing countries, particularly SSA. In addition, however, the results uncovered a telling intervening role for financial deepening in the saving-investment space. Going forward, the precise nature and corresponding policy implications of this role should form an integral part of discussions in both academic and policy circles.Keywords: Feldstein-Horioka Coefficient, Panel Mean Reversion, Fixed Effects, Sub Saharan AfricaJEL classification: C23, F21, F36, K11(ProQuest: ... denotes formulae omitted.)1. INTRODUCTIONA distinguishing feature of Africa's twenty first century epoch, especially in the wake of the recent global economic cum financial crisis, appears to be the declining trends in traditional sources of investments, especially Official Development Assistance (ODA), foreign direct investment (FDI) as well as remittances, emanating from the developed countries. This evolving investment regime could potentially persist as a result of a number of factors chief among which are binding budget constraints, macroeconomic imbalances and challenges in terms of reaching parliamentary consensus in these African investment supply hubs. The current global economic outlook thus situates Africa in a position of grappling with declining trade flows, a collapse of commodity prices, reduced access to international private financing, falling government revenues, reductions in remittances, and, to some degree, uncertainty about future commitments of official development assistance (Heintz and Ndikumana, 2010). There is no gainsaying the stymieing effects these turn of events could have on the growth trajectories of African economies.The foregoing, both from policy and strategic perspectives, should prod the minds of policymakers within the African continent on intensifying efforts towards better domestic resource mobilization. This should be with a view to ensuring that the investment resources needed for growth can be partly offset from within, particularly amid unfavorable external conditions. Received economic wisdom offers a clear, arguable though, association between saving and investment on one hand and the growth promoting influence of investment on the other. Theoretically, in the absence of capital mobility, domestic investment financing should be largely saving-based, implying between these variables, a correlation metric in the neighbourhood of unity. Thus, under perfect capital mobility, savings should flow to the most attractive investment projects globally. The puzzle, however, was that Feldstein and Horioka (1980), FH hereafter, using data on 16 of the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) countries over the 1960-1974 period reported the existence of rigidities and preferences which tend to keep saving locked in investments within the country of origin. This was clearly at variance with the intuition of near perfect capital mobility expected among the OECD economies, particularly in such an era characterized by ample push for global capital markets integration.Also, in a parallel but relatively older literature, McKinnon (1973) and Shaw (1973) working independently identified a key role for financial intermediaries in matching funds from surplus to deficit units in the economy during the growth process. Thus, well functioning financial markets ought to minimize the divergence between domestic saving and available investment opportunities. Therefore, the higher the extent of financial sector advancement, the higher is the level of investment that can be financed via an efficient allocation of saving (Bencivega and Smith, 1991; Guiso et al. …

Probability and time

Probabilistic reasoning is often attributed a temporal meaning, in which conditioning is regarded as a normative rule to compute future beliefs out of current beliefs and observations. However, the well-established ‘updating interpretation’ of conditioning is not concerned with beliefs that evolve in time, and in particular with future beliefs. On the other hand, a temporal justification of conditioning was proposed already by De Moivre and Bayes, by requiring that current and future beliefs be consistent. We reconsider the latter approach while dealing with a generalised version of the problem, using a behavioural theory of imprecise probability in the form of coherent lower previsions as well as of coherent sets of desirable gambles, and letting the possibility space be finite or infinite. We obtain that using conditioning is normative, in the imprecise case, only if one establishes future behavioural commitments at the same time of current beliefs. In this case it is also normative that present beliefs be conglomerable, which is a result that touches on a long-term controversy at the foundations of probability. In the remaining case, where one commits to some future behaviour after establishing present beliefs, we characterise the several possibilities to define consistent future assessments; this shows in particular that temporal consistency does not preclude changes of mind. And yet, our analysis does not support that rationality requires consistency in general, even though pursuing consistency makes sense and is useful, at least as a way to guide and evaluate the assessment process. These considerations narrow down in the special case of precise probability, because this formalism cannot distinguish the two different situations illustrated above: it turns out that the only consistent rule is conditioning and moreover that it is not rational to be willing to stick to precise probability while using a rule different from conditioning to compute future beliefs; rationality requires in addition the disintegrability of the present-time probability.

Engaging to End the Epidemic

Engaging to End the Epidemic

Factors influencing career decisions in internal medicine

Numerous factors influence career decisions for internal medicine trainees and Fellows. There is a perception that a greater emphasis is placed on work-family balance by younger physicians. To determine the characteristics of the modern internal medicine workforce and ascertain whether job flexibility is important to career decision-making. We hypothesised that factors which reflect flexibility would be highly influential in decision-making, especially for women and those with young children. A questionnaire was mailed to 250 New Zealand internal medicine trainees and Fellows. It focused on factors, including job flexibility, interest and collegial support, and included demographic details which were primarily aimed at ascertaining family responsibilities. Response rate was 54%. The majority of female physicians are the main person responsible for their children (62%), and the majority of their partners work full-time (80%). This contrasts with male physicians, of whom only 4% are the main person responsible for their children. Flexibility was found to be more influential in women, those with young children, trainees and those working in outpatient-based subspecialties. However, contrary to our original hypothesis, flexibility was not reported to be highly influential in any group, with career choice being most influenced by interest and enjoyment, intellectual challenge and variety within the job. It is hoped that results will inform employers and those involved with training to enable them to better cater for the needs of the workforce and also encourage trainees to consider future family commitments when making career decisions.

Epistemic Addiction: Reading “Sonny's Blues” with Levinas, Kierkegaard, and Nietzsche

journal of speculative philosophy, vol. 26, no. 3, 2012 Copyright © 2012 The Pennsylvania State University, University Park, PA James Baldwin writes that “I underwent, during the summer that I became fourteen, a prolonged religious crisis.” Baldwin dealt with this crisis in his literary works through the strategic use of Christian theological themes and imagery to make compelling critiques of bourgeois cultural and Christian values. So “prolonged” was his “religious crisis” that Christian theological themes permeate Baldwin’s immense literary corpus. Baldwin thus both was influenced by Christianity and critiqued it in his works. Considering these two points, I think it appropriate to begin this essay with a biblical reference to the Christian narrative of the “fall” of humanity. I choose this biblical starting point not only because of Baldwin’s Christian background and literary inclinations but also because I think that this starting point accurately depicts the moral problem that is at work in Baldwin’s short story “Sonny’s Blues.” I shall call this moral problem “epistemic addiction.” Epistemic Addiction: Reading “Sonny’s Blues” with Levinas, Kierkegaard, and Nietzsche

Debt and Deception: How States Avoid Making Hard Fiscal Decisions

Government borrowing occurs whenever the government forgoes control over some future flow of resources or benefits in order to acquire resources for current use. Based on this definition, the authors identify several ways that state governments borrow, which include widely recognized forms of debt as well as types of actions that are less transparent. Case studies for Connecticut, Illinois, and New York document the large amounts of future commitments that these states have taken on to cover operating deficits over the last decade. The authors conclude by evaluating the usefulness of current financial statements for assessing the amount of borrowing that states have done to support current services and suggest areas for which additional information is needed.

Reduced deforestation and the carbon market: the role of market regulations and future commitments

AbstractReducing emissions from deforestation and degradation (REDD) has been proposed as an economic and extensive source of emission abatement to supplement other long-term climate policies. However, critics suggest an excess supply of REDD credits may disrupt emerging carbon markets and raise north–south equity concerns. In this context, we investigate the economic implications of REDD regulations and future emissions reduction commitments. Numerical model simulations show that unrestricted exchange of REDD units reduces the international carbon price by half and cuts compliance costs by roughly one-third. Developed nations’ requirements for policy supplementarity, which restrict demand for REDD credits, reduce such price impacts but go at the expense of both economic efficiency and benefits to rainforest areas. Instead, unlimited REDD access facilitates climate policy targets to be tightened by almost a quarter at constant compliance cost, tripling the environmental ambition of the Kyoto Protocol and providing considerable wealth transfers to developing countries.

Refrigerants and their Environmental Impact Substitution of Hydro Chlorofluorocarbon HCFC and HFC Hydro Fluorocarbon. Search for an Adequate Refrigerant

Globally, the production of cold housing is seen as a major energy challenge of this new century. The economic development of developing countries, submitted their majority in hot climates, will lead to a growing demand chilling requirements. Yet currently, the production of cold solutions is mainly based on refrigeration systems major consumers of electrical energy.It is then necessary to prepare socio-economically acceptable solutions tailored to meet those needs without compromising future international commitments on the protection of the environment, particularly for reducing greenhouse gas emissions and better protection of the ozone layer by use of refrigerants neutral. For some years now, because of their impact on the environment, the use of halogenated refrigerants has been progressively subject to quotas. In this context, the use of “natural” refrigerants becomes a possible solution. We introduce in this work the merit of redeploying these natural refrigerants as an alternative solution to replace halogenated refrigerants. The solution to the environmental impacts of refrigerant gases would therefore pass by a gas which contains no chlorine no fluorine and does not reject any CO2 emissions in the atmosphere, in brief a green gas! The aim of our project is to contribute to the protection of our environment. Our motive being to produce cold for freezing foodstuffs and seeds, safeguarding pharmaceuticals and cooling of premises: temperature conditions, air qualities controlling and producing. This work is also concerned by a contribution to the reduction of greenhouse gases and by the replacement of the polluting cooling fluids (HCFC). It is essentially the refrigeration at low temperatures, lower than (-20°C), using the solar thermal energy, in order to improve the quality of life for many people especially in arid and semi arid regions in our country.

Processes of Identity Development: Where I Am and How I Got There

Erikson's seminal work on identity development focused on the question, Who Am I? Despite theoretical overlap between identity theorists, current research has primarily taken different paths. Those focused on identity statuses have primarily assessed current conceptions of exploration that presumably lead to future commitments. In contrast, narrative identity theorists have primarily focused on reconstructions of past events. Thus, current researchers are not taking advantage of the strengths of these two approaches. This article reviews research and examines ways in which the approaches might be integrated with two claims. The authors propose, first, that narrative is the means by which identity exploration can be carried out, and second, that narrative processing reflects commitments and can promote greater consistency between those commitments and behaviors.

The Ambiguities of Opposition: Economic Decline, International Cooperation, and Political Rivalry in the Nuclear Policies of the Labour Party, 1963–1964

This article explores the twenty-month period between Harold Wilson securing the leadership of the opposition in February 1963 and the General Election of October 1964. It considers how Wilson balanced his own approach to nuclear weapons with the demands of the party and broader international constraints. As the Leader of the Opposition principally sought to satisfy the needs of the party, which often came at the expense of a more conciliatory negotiating position with Washington. In private discussions with foreign officials, he vigorously contested any future commitments to nuclear sharing, and cast doubt on Britain's future as a nuclear power. International pressures, however, eventually led the Leader of the Opposition to produce a number of subtle caveats to his negotiating position. In contrast to this private and more aggressive style of nuclear diplomacy, Wilson's public position was far more ambivalent and intentionally ambiguous. Claims that he could not make a final decision on the future of the Polaris programme, and thus nuclear sharing, until he was in power provided a convenient way to keep the party united without necessarily committing to cancellation. Wilson's criticisms of the Polaris programme also complemented the Labour Party's efforts to highlight the Conservative government's perceived mishandling of the national economy.

Smooth and Predictable Aid for Health

This paper presents evidence that aid flows to the sector are volatile in terms of observed outcomes and uncertain in terms of making and delivering future commitments. The aid is therefore poorly suited to fund recurrent costs associated with achieving the Millennium Development Goals, particularly funding of Primary Health Care (PHC) facilities that are key to achieving maternal and child goals. Recent aid financing innovations have begun to address some of the inadequacies of the aid architecture through more stable and long-term financing for health. These represent a small though rising share of aid. Additional financing mechanisms that could contribute to more stable and predictable flows are proposed in the context of funding integrated PHC: (1) smoothing of irregular aid commitments through securitization of aid receivalbes; (2) endowment funds; (3) a swing donor facility; and (4) a health debit card for financing shortfalls. To be effective, these mechanisms would need to complement ongoign efforts to improve the efficiency of interactions between donors and recipients in the disbursement of aid through greater transparency in aid transactions and mutual accountability in defining aid objectives.

Foreign Aid, Democratization, and Civil Conflict: How Does Democracy Aid Affect Civil Conflict?

It has been suggested that democratizing states are prone to civil wars. However, not all democratizing states experience domestic political violence. We argue that one of the key factors that “shelters” some democratizing states from domestic political violence is the receipt of democracy aid. Democratizing states that receive high levels of democracy assistance are less likely to experience civil conflict than countries that receive little or no external democracy assistance. During democratic transitions, the central authority weakens and uncertainty about future political commitments and promises among domestic groups increases. Democracy aid decreases the risk of conflict by reducing commitment problems and uncertainty. Using an instrumental variables approach that accounts for potential endogeneity problems in aid allocation, we find empirical support for our argument. We conclude that there is a potential path to democracy that ameliorates the perils of democratization, and democracy assistance programs can play a significant positive role in this process.