Future Climate Trends Research Articles

Understanding south‐east Australian rainfall projection uncertainties: the influence of patterns of projected tropical warming

AbstractSouth‐Eastern Australia and, in particular the state of Victoria, has experienced record deficits of rainfall over the last 20 years, in which the cool part of the year from April to October has been most affected. This situation has created difficulties for water managers, farmers and fire services, with the need to provide more certainty about future climate trends becoming clear. The latest climate projections for South‐Eastern Australia project an overall drying in the cool part of the year with little change in the rest of the year. Although this is in line with current trends, very large uncertainties are associated with these projections. In this study, this range of projections has been investigated, first by assessing how the current suite of climate models simulate the regional rainfall as well as the tropical variability, known to be a key driver of south‐eastern Australian climate. The models were found to be reasonable overall, although a number overestimate Victorian summer rainfall. Model rainfall projections are found to be related to the models' projected patterns of tropical warming, where 60% of the range in cool season rainfall projections can be explained by the range of pattern of tropical changes. In addition, the projected drying tends to be more intense in the models best able to simulate summer rainfall, thus suggesting that the upper end of the uncertainty range is less likely to be realized as it may reflect inherent model biases, rather than physical changes.

Past and Future Ecosystem Change in the Coastal Zone

The coastal zone is in a constant state of flux. Long term records of change attest to high amplitude sea level changes. Relative stability though the Late Holocene has allowed for the evolution of barrier dune systems, estuaries and coastal lakes with associated plant and faunal associations. This evolution has been interspersed with changes in the balance between climate driven changes in outflow from catchments. These interactions have been considerably disturbed through the impacts of industrialised people who have diverted and consumed water and invested in infrastructure that has impacted on river flows and the tidal prism in estuaries. This has impacted their provisioning services to humans. It has also impacted their regulating services in that development along the coastline has impacted on the resilience of the littoral zone to absorb natural climate extremes. Looking from the past we can see the pathway to the future and more easily recognise the steps needed to avoid further coastal degradation. This will increasingly need to accommodate the impacts of future climate trends, increased climate extremes and rising seas. Coastal societies would do well to identify their long term pathway to adaptation to the challenges that lie ahead and plan to invest accordingly.

Active layer thermal regime in two climatically contrasted sites of the Antarctic Peninsula region

Permafrost controls geomorphic processes in ice-free areas of the Antarctic Peninsula (AP) region. Future climate trends will promote significant changes of the active layer regime and permafrost distribution, and therefore a better characterization of present-day state is needed. With this purpose, this research focuses on Ulu Peninsula (James Ross Island) and Byers Peninsula (Livingston Island), located in the area of continuous and discontinuous permafrost in the eastern and western sides of the AP, respectively. Air and ground temperatures in as low as 80 cm below surface of the ground were monitored between January and December 2014. There is a high correlation between air temperatures on both sites (r=0.74). The mean annual temperature in Ulu Peninsula was -7.9 ºC, while in Byers Peninsula was -2.6 ºC. The lower air temperatures in Ulu Peninsula are also reflected in ground temperatures, which were between 4.9 (5 cm) and 5.9 ºC (75/80 cm) lower. The maximum active layer thickness observed during the study period was 52 cm in Ulu Peninsula and 85 cm in Byers Peninsula. Besides climate, soil characteristics, topography and snow cover are the main factors controlling the ground thermal regime in both areas.

Hydroclimatic changes over the past 900 years documented by the sediments of Tiewaike Lake, Altai Mountains, Northwestern China

The reconstruction of variations in effective moisture over the past millennium are important for assessing potential future climatic trends in environmentally-sensitive arid Central Asia (ACA), especially in the context of ongoing global warming. However, high-resolution time series reflecting past moisture variability in the region are scarce, thus preventing a full understanding of the hydroclimatic evolution. Here we present the results of multi-proxy analysis of a sediment core spanning the past 900 years from Tiewaike Lake in the Altai Mountains, northern Xinjiang. The climatic proxies measured include grain size, organic matter and carbonate content, C/N ratio, and the stable carbon isotope composition of bulk organic matter. The results show that over the past 900 years the climatic evolution of the study area can be divided into distinct hydroclimatic phases: the arid Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA, ∼1090–1430 AD), the humid Little Ice Age (LIA, 1430–1940 AD), and the arid Current Warm Period (CWP, 1940–2012 AD). During the LIA, the water level at Tiewaike Lake was overall higher than during the other climatic intervals; in addition, the LIA climate was unstable and characterized by six intervals with the occurrence of heavy precipitation events on a multi-decadal timescale. A humid, unstable climate during the LIA is also suggested by climatic records from adjacent regions. Our results support the view that over the past millennium, on a multi-centennial timescale, the moisture variations in ACA were generally out-of-phase with those in the region affected by the Asian summer monsoon. The humid, unstable LIA climate in ACA may have been associated with changes in the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index and/or with variations in solar irradiance.

Exploring future climate trends on the thermal performance of attics: Part 1 – Standard roofs

Attic spaces experience complex heat and mass transfer in comparison to the rest of the building envelope. The thermal energy evolution of these unique spaces is further complicated due to complex geometries, multi layered material components, their non-linear material properties, and geographical locations. The proper design of attics plays a significant role in the amount of thermal energy transferred across the ceiling to the occupied space and the energy usage of the building envelope. This is especially important in the context of changing climatic conditions which affects the energy demand of residential as well as commercial buildings.This study investigates the impact of current and predicted future climates on different attic forms in multiple locations across the U.S. For this analysis we utilize a recently developed, validated attic energy analysis model, the Fraunhofer attic thermal model. Six attic geometries (constructed according to architectural standards) are considered. These geometries are analyzed under four climatic scenarios in six major U.S. cities. We investigate several energy characteristics of roofs including thermal loads, peak roof deck temperatures, and attic air temperatures. The identification of energy usage and robustness to climatic changes can contribute to improved attic construction design standards. We envision this work informing architects and engineers in designing robust attic spaces that create more sustainable buildings for the future.

Agricultural water supply/demand changes under projected future climate change in the arid region of northwestern China

The water resources in the arid region of northwestern China, which are impacted by climate change, tend to be more unstable, and the environment and ecosystems will suffer from severe water shortage. In this paper, potential future climate trends were predicted based on CMIP5 simulations in this region. The water availability and agricultural water demand under future climate change scenarios were estimated. Impacted by increases in temperature, the irrigation water demand will increase by 4.27–6.15billionm3 in this region over the next 60years, compared to the demand of 32.75billionm3 during 1971–2000. However, the annual runoff will only increase by 4.8–8.5billionm3, which is equivalent to or even less than the increased irrigation water demand. In fact, the increased demand for industrial, domestic and ecological water were not considered here. Thus, the water supply/demand contradiction will result in more severe water shortages in the future. According to a comparison with simulated irrigation water demand under three adaptation strategy scenarios, we should take effective measures such as improving the efficiency of irrigation water utilization, reducing crop planting areas and adjusting crop planting structures to alleviate the impacts of future climate changes and human activities on the water supply and water use in this region.

Uncertainty in predicting range dynamics of endemic alpine plants under climate warming.

Correlative species distribution models have long been the predominant approach to predict species' range responses to climate change. Recently, the use of dynamic models is increasingly advocated for because these models better represent the main processes involved in range shifts and also simulate transient dynamics. A well-known problem with the application of these models is the lack of data for estimating necessary parameters of demographic and dispersal processes. However, what has been hardly considered so far is the fact that simulating transient dynamics potentially implies additional uncertainty arising from our ignorance of short-term climate variability in future climatic trends. Here, we use endemic mountain plants of Austria as a case study to assess how the integration of decadal variability in future climate affects outcomes of dynamic range models as compared to projected long-term trends and uncertainty in demographic and dispersal parameters. We do so by contrasting simulations of a so-called hybrid model run under fluctuating climatic conditions with those based on a linear interpolation of climatic conditions between current values and those predicted for the end of the 21st century. We find that accounting for short-term climate variability modifies model results nearly as differences in projected long-term trends and much more than uncertainty in demographic/dispersal parameters. In particular, range loss and extinction rates are much higher when simulations are run under fluctuating conditions. These results highlight the importance of considering the appropriate temporal resolution when parameterizing and applying range-dynamic models, and hybrid models in particular. In case of our endemic mountain plants, we hypothesize that smoothed linear time series deliver more reliable results because these long-lived species are primarily responsive to long-term climate averages.

Assessing local climate vulnerability and winegrowers’ adaptive processes in the context of climate change

Adaptation to climate change is a major challenge facing the viticulture sector. Temporally, adaptation strategies and policies have to address potential impacts in both the short- and long term, whereas spatially, place-based and context-specific adaptations are essential. To help inform decision-making on climate change adaptation, this study adopted a bottom-up approach to assess local climate vulnerability and winegrowers’ adaptive processes in two regulated wine-producing areas in the Anjou-Saumur wine growing sub-region, France. The data used for this study were collected through individual semi-structured interviews with 30 winegrowers. With a focus on wine quality, climate-related exposure, and sensitivity were dependent on many contextual factors (e.g., northern geographical position, wine regulatory frameworks, local environmental features) interacting with the regional oceanic climate. Climate and other non-climate-related variables brought about important changes in winegrowers’ management practices, varying in time and space. This ongoing process in decision-making enhanced winegrowers’ adaptive responses, which were primarily reactive (e.g., harvesting, winemaking) or anticipatory (e.g., canopy and soil management) to short-term climate conditions. Winegrowers described changing trends in climate- and grapevine (Vitis) -related variables, with the latter attributed to regional climate changes and evolving management practices. Regarding future climate trends, winegrowers’ displayed great uncertainty, placing the most urgent adaptation priority on short-term strategies, while changing grapevine varieties and using irrigation were identified as last resort strategies. The study concluded by discussing the implications of these findings in the context of climate change adaptation in viticulture.

PREDICTION OF PADDY IRRIGATION REQUIREMENTS BY USING STATISTICAL DOWNSCALING AND CROPWAT MODELS: A CASE STUDY FROM THE KERIAN IRRIGATION SCHEME IN MALAYSIA

With an average rainfall of 2500mm per year, Malaysia has abundant water resources but climate change coupled with drought, urbanisation and pollution sometimes causes water stress. Global warming has changed the local climate, threatening agricultural activities with particular impact on paddy production systems. To ensure availability of sufficient irrigation water for growing crops, there is a need to estimate future irrigation water requirements in the face of the complex dynamic resulting from global warming. The current study was therefore carried out to estimate paddy irrigation water requirements based on future climate trends by using SDSM and CROPWAT Models at the Kerian Irrigation Scheme, Perak, Malaysia. The application of the SDSM model revealed that both temperature and rainfall will increase in the future. Meanwhile the CROPWAT model predicted that the annual irrigation requirement will slightly decrease for period between 2010-2069 and increase for years 2070-2099 even though crop evapotranspiration (ETcrop) is predicted to increase in future for rise in temperature for year 2010 to 2099. This integration of SDSM and CROPWAT models produced better simulations of crop water requirement and irrigation requirement. Therefore, it can assist the reservoir’s operating management team in giving effective and proficient response to climate changes in the future.

Quantifying the Role of Internal Climate Variability in Future Climate Trends

Abstract Internal variability in the climate system gives rise to large uncertainty in projections of future climate. The uncertainty in future climate due to internal climate variability can be estimated from large ensembles of climate change simulations in which the experiment setup is the same from one ensemble member to the next but for small perturbations in the initial atmospheric state. However, large ensembles are invariably computationally expensive and susceptible to model bias. Here the authors outline an alternative approach for assessing the role of internal variability in future climate based on a simple analytic model and the statistics of the unforced climate variability. The analytic model is derived from the standard error of the regression and assumes that the statistics of the internal variability are roughly Gaussian and stationary in time. When applied to the statistics of an unforced control simulation, the analytic model provides a remarkably robust estimate of the uncertainty in future climate indicated by a large ensemble of climate change simulations. To the extent that observations can be used to estimate the amplitude of internal climate variability, it is argued that the uncertainty in future climate trends due to internal variability can be robustly estimated from the statistics of the observed climate.

Accounting for hydro-climatic and water use variability in the assessment of past and future water balance at the basin scale

Abstract. This study assesses water stress by 2050 in river basins facing increasing human and climatic pressures, by comparing the impacts of various combinations of possible future socio-economic and climate trends. A modelling framework integrating human and hydro-climatic dynamics and accounting for interactions between resource and demand at a 10-day time step was developed and applied in two basins of different sizes and with contrasted water uses: the Herault (2500 km2, France) and the Ebro (85 000 km2, Spain) basins. Natural streamflow was evaluated using a conceptual hydrological model (GR4j). A demand-driven reservoir management model was designed to account for streamflow regulations from the main dams. Urban water demand was estimated from time series of population and monthly unit water consumption data. Agricultural water demand was computed from time series of irrigated area, crop and soil data, and climate forcing. Indicators comparing water supply to demand at strategic resource and demand nodes were computed. This framework was successfully calibrated and validated under non-stationary human and hydro-climatic conditions over the last 40 years before being applied under four combinations of climatic and water use scenarios to differentiate the impacts of climate- and human-induced changes on streamflow and water balance. Climate simulations from the CMIP5 exercise were used to generate 18 climate scenarios at the 2050 horizon. A baseline water use scenario for 2050 was designed based on demographic and local socio-economic trends. Results showed that projected water uses are not sustainable under climate change scenarios.

Coupling patterns between para‐glacial and permafrost degradation responses in Antarctica

ABSTRACTThe recently deglaciated environments in maritime permafrost regions are usually affected by very active paraglacial processes. Elephant Point is an ice‐free area of 1.16 km2 located in the SW of Livingston island (South Shetland Islands, Antarctica). Between 1956–2010 the retreat of the ice cap covering most part of this island has exposed 17.3% of the land surface in this peninsula. Two geomorphological units were identified in this new ice‐free area: a moraine extending from the western to the eastern coastlines and a relatively flat proglacial surface. The glacier in 1956 sat in contact with the northern slope of the moraine, but its accelerated retreat ‐ in parallel to the warming trend recorded in the Antarctic Peninsula ‐ left these areas free of glacier ice. Subsequently, the postglacial evolution was controlled by the relaxation phase typical of paraglacial systems. The typology and intensity of geomorphological processes show a significantly different dynamics between the southern and northern slopes of the moraine. This pattern is related to the different stage of paraglacial adjustment in both slopes. In the southern side, on coarser sediments, pronival ramparts, debris flows and alluvial fans are distributed, with a low to moderate activity of slope processes. In the northern side, mass wasting processes are extremely active on fine‐grained unconsolidated sediments. Ice‐rich permafrost is being degraded by thermokarst processes. Landslides and mudflows transfer large amounts of sediments down‐slope. The surface affected by retrogressive‐thaw slumps in the moraine has been quantified in 24,172 m2, which accounts for 9.6% of its surface. The abundance of kettle‐lakes is also indicative of the degradation of the ground ice. Paraglacial processes are expected to continue in the moraine and proglacial area in the near future, although their intensity and duration will depend on the magnitude and rate of future climate trends in the northern Antarctic Peninsula. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Climate Projections for Transportation Infrastructure Planning, Operations and Maintenance, and Design

A key assumption in planning is that weather and climate events may vary from year to year but climate remains stable over the long term and can be predicted on the basis of past return values. This assumption underpins most design standards, operations and maintenance programs, and planning for transportation projects and programs. However, climate change is altering the risk of many types of weather extremes, including the frequency, severity, or both, of high temperatures, heavy precipitation events, coastal flooding, and storms. This concept of non-stationarity (i.e., that future climate conditions and weather risks will differ from those in the past) challenges scientists and engineers to incorporate climate change into present-day planning when the future is manifestly uncertain. A general framework is presented for incorporating observed and projected future climate trends into infrastructure planning. The issues that remain to be resolved, including the challenges confronted in translating climate and weather-related extremes to information that is directly relevant to assessing potential impacts on infrastructure, are highlighted.

Mechanisms of microbial carbon sequestration in the ocean – future research directions

Abstract. This paper reviews progress on understanding biological carbon sequestration in the ocean with special reference to the microbial formation and transformation of recalcitrant dissolved organic carbon (RDOC), the microbial carbon pump (MCP). We propose that RDOC is a concept with a wide continuum of recalcitrance. Most RDOC compounds maintain their levels of recalcitrance only in a specific environmental context (RDOCt). The ocean RDOC pool also contains compounds that may be inaccessible to microbes due to their extremely low concentration (RDOCc). This differentiation allows us to appreciate the linkage between microbial source and RDOC composition on a range of temporal and spatial scales. Analyses of biomarkers and isotopic records show intensive MCP processes in the Proterozoic oceans when the MCP could have played a significant role in regulating climate. Understanding the dynamics of the MCP in conjunction with the better constrained biological pump (BP) over geological timescales could help to predict future climate trends. Integration of the MCP and the BP will require new research approaches and opportunities. Major goals include understanding the interactions between particulate organic carbon (POC) and RDOC that contribute to sequestration efficiency, and the concurrent determination of the chemical composition of organic carbon, microbial community composition and enzymatic activity. Molecular biomarkers and isotopic tracers should be employed to link water column processes to sediment records, as well as to link present-day observations to paleo-evolution. Ecosystem models need to be developed based on empirical relationships derived from bioassay experiments and field investigations in order to predict the dynamics of carbon cycling along the stability continuum of POC and RDOC under potential global change scenarios. We propose that inorganic nutrient input to coastal waters may reduce the capacity for carbon sequestration as RDOC. The nutrient regime enabling maximum carbon storage from combined POC flux and RDOC formation should therefore be sought.

Contrasting effects of climate change along life stages of a dominant tree species: the importance of soil–climate interactions

AbstractAimFor tree species, adult survival and seedling and sapling recruitment dynamics are the main processes that determine forest structure and composition. Thus, studying how these two life stages may be affected by climate change in the context of other abiotic and biotic variables is critical to understand future population trends. The aim of this study was to assess the sustainability of cork oak (Quercus suber) forests at the core of its distributional range under future climatic conditions.LocationSouthern Spain.MethodsUsing forest inventory data collected at two periods 10 years apart, we performed a comprehensive analysis to evaluate the role of different abiotic and biotic factors on adult survival and recruitment patterns.ResultsWe found that both life stages were influenced by climatic conditions, but in different ways. Adult tree survival was negatively impacted by warmer spring temperatures, while recruitment was positively affected by warmer winter temperatures. Our results also revealed the importance of soil texture as a modulator of winter precipitation effects on adult survival. With higher winter precipitation, adult survival increased in sandy soils and decreased in clayish soils. Therefore, under predicted future climate scenarios of wetter winters and warmer temperatures, the presence of cork oaks is more likely to occur in sandy soils vs. clayish soils. Biotic conditions also affected these life stages. We found a negative effect of heterospecific but not conspecific trees on both adult survival and seedling recruitment.Main conclusionsOverall, the sustainability of the studied forests will be highly dependent not only on future climatic trends, but also on their interaction with other key factors – soil properties in particular – that modulate the effects of climate on demographic rates.

Projecting North American Climate over the Next 50 Years: Uncertainty due to Internal Variability*

Abstract This study highlights the relative importance of internally generated versus externally forced climate trends over the next 50 yr (2010–60) at local and regional scales over North America in two global coupled model ensembles. Both ensembles contain large numbers of integrations (17 and 40): each of which is subject to identical anthropogenic radiative forcing (e.g., greenhouse gas increase) but begins from a slightly different initial atmospheric state. Thus, the diversity of projected climate trends within each model ensemble is due solely to intrinsic, unpredictable variability of the climate system. Both model ensembles show that natural climate variability superimposed upon forced climate change will result in a range of possible future trends for surface air temperature and precipitation over the next 50 yr. Precipitation trends are particularly subject to uncertainty as a result of internal variability, with signal-to-noise ratios less than 2. Intrinsic atmospheric circulation variability is mainly responsible for the spread in future climate trends, imparting regional coherence to the internally driven air temperature and precipitation trends. The results underscore the importance of conducting a large number of climate change projections with a given model, as each realization will contain a different superposition of unforced and forced trends. Such initial-condition ensembles are also needed to determine the anthropogenic climate response at local and regional scales and provide a new perspective on how to usefully compare climate change projections across models.

Social Justice and Adaptation in the UK

Adaptation priorities are usually identified based on the results of top-down impacts-based assessments that may fail to represent the true social nature of vulnerability to climate change. This paper reviews recent studies to highlight the social nature of vulnerability and to consider the ways in which adaptation may or may not protect the most vulnerable. It identifies a ‘quadruple injustice’ of climate change: that certain social groups emit the least, may be negatively affected by mitigation policies, are most vulnerable to climate impacts and may be negatively affected by adaptation measures. The paper considers whether public attitudes towards fairness might be invoked to address this injustice by supporting new governance arrangements that transfer resources from high emitters to the most vulnerable. Intro In recent years research and policy have begun to focus on the need to adapt to inevitable climate change. This requires decision makers at a range of scales (global to local, sectoral, etc.) to assess the likely impacts of climate change in order to identify priorities for adaptation (Brown et al, 2011). To date, few adaptation assessments have considered the uneven distribution of climate impacts and vulnerability across groups and individuals within society. This is partly a result of the tools and methods that are used to inform adaptation policy. Another reason is that the task of assessing individuals’ and groups’ vulnerability to future change is highly complex, given large uncertainties about the direction and pace of future socio-economic and climatic trends and events. This makes it difficult to say with certainty which groups or individuals are ‘most’ vulnerable. Here vulnerability to climate change, climate variability and extreme events is defined as a function of exposure to climate impacts, sensitivity to those impacts and the adaptive capacity of the people or systems impacted (following Blaikie et al, 1994; IPCC, 2007). This paper takes as a premise that society should and does care about social justice as a core value. It also takes the perspective that when assessing the impacts of climate change, the focus should be on who suffers, how much, when and how, and that adaptation should aim to be equitable as well as effective, efficient and legitimate (after Adger et al, 2005). Adaptation should therefore strive to be socially just and to protect those who are most vulnerable to climate impacts. This paper begins by briefly considering the types of research and methodologies that have been used to support adaptation decision making. It then focuses on how social justice issues relate to climate change by drawing on recent studies on the distribution of household emissions, the social nature of vulnerability to climate impacts and the potential for adaptation to reduce or even increase the vulnerability of the most vulnerable. The paper concludes that there is a strong injustice

Whither biogeography, and whence? Bringing our subject together

editorial ISSN 1948‐6596 Whither biogeography, and whence? Bringing our subject to‐ gether Biogeography encompasses the study of all pat‐ terns of life on Earth in both space and time. As such, although it is typically classified within ‘Ecology and Evolution’ (e.g. Figure 1), it is argua‐ bly broader than its category; certainly it extends beyond. Biogeography represents one of the most transdisciplinary (and often interdisciplinary) fields within science, for it merges information from current environment and distribution of spe‐ cies with palaeontological and molecular data on their historical distribution and evolutionary rela‐ tionships, as well as information about the geo‐ logical evolution of islands and continents, and past and future trends in climate. Biogeographers use information from all these fields of science, illustrated by the fact that both Global Ecology and Biogeography and Journal of Biogeography are classified within the Physical Geography cate‐ gory of Thomson Reuters’ JCR 1 , which is predomi‐ nantly ‘Geosciences’ (see Figure 1). There are in‐ creasingly frequent links with journals specializing in computer science, climatology, microbiology and geophysics (mostly not captured by Figure 1, which uses a dataset ending in 2005). Research in biogeography, then, is not only broad but also highly diverse. The great diversity of approaches to re‐ search in biogeography is reflected by the general aim of the International Biogeography Society (IBS) of fostering communication between re‐ searchers working on all aspects of biogeography. Apart from Frontiers of Biogeography—which is an integral part of the IBS strategy along with the blog 2 , twitter 3 and facebook 4 pages—a key tool used by the IBS for strengthening links between biogeographers is international conferences. Dur‐ ing the next six months there will be two interna‐ tional IBS meetings: the IBS Special Meeting on the Geography of Species Associations 5 (Montreal, 15–17 November 2013) and the IBS Early Career 1 http://thomsonreuters.com/journal‐citation‐reports/ 2 http://biogeography.blogspot.co.uk/ 3 https://twitter.com/Biogeography 4 https://www.facebook.com/groups/6908354463/ Conference 2014 6 (Canberra, 08–10 January 2014). More information on these conferences is in the announcements section of this issue. The ‘main’, biennial conference—the IBS International Meet‐ ing 7 —is perhaps the main event in many bio‐ geographers’ calendars. It aims to bring together researchers from all fields within biogeography, who present their most exciting and cutting‐edge research. The abstract book of the last IBS confer‐ ence (Hortal et al. 2012) provides an overview of the wide variety of topics, study subjects and methodological approaches used by biogeogra‐ phers, though some subjects were under‐ represented (e.g. deep‐time biogeography). This conference is therefore the best showcase for the subject as a whole, and an excellent opportunity to get up to date with the latest advances across its breadth. But is also a place for discussion; both the symposia and the parallel sessions that are held during the conference are intended to allow scientific debate and set up the basis of future research in biogeography. Needless to say, many personal meetings over a coffee or (more fre‐ quently, to tell the truth) a beer are also an inte‐ gral part of this process. This makes the IBS bien‐ nial conference the perfect melting pot for the research ideas that will drive our science forward through the next years. Frontiers of Biogeography has previously tried to provide an update of the IBS conferences through symposium summaries that covered the main discussions and trends in each session (Dawson et al. 2011; see e.g. Jenkins and Ricklefs 2011; Sfenthourakis and Svenning 2011). But in this issue, for the Miami meeting held in January 2013, we are offering something quite different. Rather than collecting a series of separate sum‐ maries of the discussions held in the meeting, Mi‐ chael Dawson has coordinated the chairpeople from all the sessions (symposia and parallel ses‐ 5 http://ibsmontreal.webs.com/ 6 http://www.biogeography.org/html/Meetings/2014ECC/ 7 http://www.biogeography.org/html/Meetings/index.html frontiers of biogeography 5.2, 2013 — © 2013 the authors; journal compilation © 2013 The International Biogeography Society

Long-term behaviors of two versions of FGOALS2 in preindustrial control simulations with implications for 20th century simulations

Climate drift in preindustrial control (PICTL) simulations can lead to spurious climate trends and large uncertainties in historical and future climate simulations in coupled models. This study examined the longterm behaviors and stabilities of the PICTL simulations in the two versions of FGOALS2 (the Flexible Global Ocean-Atmosphere-Land System model Version 2), which have been submitted to the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5). As verified by examining time series of thermal fields and their linear trends, the PICTL simulations showed stable long-term integration behaviors and no obvious climate drift [the magnitudes of linear trends of SST were both less than 0.04°C (100 yr)−1] over multiple centuries. The changed SSTs in a century (that corresponded to the linear trends) were less than the standard deviations of annual mean values, which implied the internal variability was not affected. These trend values were less than 10% of those of global averaged SST from observations and historical runs during the periods of slow and rapid warming. Such stable long-term integration behaviors reduced the uncertainty of the estimation of global warming rates in the historical and future climate projections in the two versions of FGOALS2. Compared with the trends in the Northern Hemisphere, larger trends existed in the SST and sea ice extents at the middle to high latitudes of the Southern Hemisphere (SH). To estimate the historical and future climate trends in the SH or at some specific regions in FGOALS2, corrections needed to be carried out. The similar long-term behaviors in the two versions of FGOALS2 may be attributed to proper physical processes in the ocean model.

The effects of climate change on avian migratory patterns and the dispersal of commercial poultry diseases in Canada - Part I

Many birds are able to modify migratory strategies when selection favours an adjustment. Climate change is provoking a range of responses from avian migrants and affecting their relationship with other biological systems. This is the first part of a two-part review that aims to summarise the available literature on the impact of climate change on migratory birds and how those changes will subsequently affect the spread of poultry diseases. Part I reviews the effects of climate change on the ecology of avian migrants; it was found that climate change has evoked several changes in birds, including changes in avian phenology, poleward shifts in avian distributions, modification of migratory distances, direction and activity, and alterations to movement patterns and destinations. Based on predictions for future climatic trends, climate change will continue to favour changes in avian migratory strategies and behaviour, emphasising the importance of investigating how these adjustments will affect the relationship between avian migrants and bird-borne pathogens.