Future Climate Policy Research Articles

Multi-Model Projections of River Flood Risk in Europe under Global Warming

Knowledge on the costs of natural disasters under climate change is key information for planning adaptation and mitigation strategies of future climate policies. Impact models for large scale flood risk assessment have made leaps forward in the past few years, thanks to the increased availability of high resolution climate projections and of information on local exposure and vulnerability to river floods. Yet, state-of-the-art flood impact models rely on a number of input data and techniques that can substantially influence their results. This work compares estimates of river flood risk in Europe from three recent case studies, assuming global warming scenarios of 1.5, 2, and 3 degrees Celsius from pre-industrial levels. The assessment is based on comparing ensemble projections of expected damage and population affected at country level. Differences and common points between the three cases are shown, to point out main sources of uncertainty, strengths, and limitations. In addition, the multi-model comparison helps identify regions with the largest agreement on specific changes in flood risk. Results show that global warming is linked to substantial increase in flood risk over most countries in Central and Western Europe at all warming levels. In Eastern Europe, the average change in flood risk is smaller and the multi-model agreement is poorer.

Designing Climate Policy: Lessons from the Renewable Fuel Standard and the Blend Wall

AbstractMany policies mandate renewable energy production to combat global climate change. These policies often differ significantly from first‐best policy prescriptions. Among the largest renewable energy mandates enacted to date is the Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS), which mandates biofuel consumption far beyond what is feasible with current technology and infrastructure. We critically review the methods used by the Environmental Protection Agency to project near‐ and long‐term compliance costs under the RFS, and draw lessons from the RFS experience to date that would improve the program's efficiency. The lessons are meant to inform both future RFS rulemaking and the design of future climate policies. We draw two lessons specific to the RFS. First, incorporate uncertainty into rulemaking; second, implement multi‐year rules. Multi‐year rulemaking allows for longer periods between major regulatory decisions and sends greater certainty to markets. We also provide two more general recommendations: tie waiver authority to compliance costs or include cost containment provisions, and fund research and development of new technologies directly rather than mandating them. Future technological advancement is uncertain, and mandating new technologies has proven to be largely ineffective to date, particularly in fuel markets.

Changing climate policy paradigms in Bangladesh and Nepal

The aim of this article is to explain and compare the changes in climate policy paradigms (CPPs) of Bangladesh and Nepal. Climate policies are shaped by the underlying CPPs that refer to a dominant set of prevailing and institutionalized ideas and strategies to reduce the impacts of climate change. We focus the analysis on the timeframe between 1997 and 2016, using policy documents (n = 46) and semi-structured interviews (n = 43) with key policy actors. We find that in both countries several CPPs have emerged: disaster risk reduction, climate change adaptation, mainstreaming, and localized action for adaptation. In Bangladesh, specific policy goals and instruments for each CPP have emerged, whereas in Nepal the government has been struggling to develop specific policy instruments to implement the paradigms. We conclude that competing CPPs currently exist which creates diversified policy responses to climate change impacts in both countries. This ‘layering’ of different CPPs can be attributed to drivers such as unstable political situation, lack of financial support, influence of national and international non-governmental organizations and global policy frameworks. The findings in our study are relevant to further discussions on how to design future climate policy responses to adapt to climate change.

What does it take to institute REDD +? An analysis of the Kilosa REDD + pilot, Tanzania

Reduced emissions from deforestation and forest degradation (REDD+) has been seen as an important element in future climate policies. This paper analyzes the establishment of a REDD+ pilot project in Kilosa district, Tanzania. It documents changes in organizations and institutions for land management undertaken to enable villagers to produce and sell stored carbon. Moreover, it evaluates the legitimacy both of the process of introducing REDD+ and the outcomes in the form of new governance structures. We find that establishing tradable carbon is demanding. In fact, no carbon has yet been sold. We observe that while the Kilosa REDD+ pilot managed to engage local communities to a rather unusual extent, the case also showed that introducing REDD+ ‘on the ground’ faces several challenges regarding legitimacy.

Assessing butanol from integrated forest biorefinery: A combined techno-economic and life cycle approach

The life cycle assessment (LCA) methodology is increasingly used to ensure environmental sustainability of emerging biofuels. However, LCA studies are usually not performed at the process design stage, when it would be more efficient to identify and control environmental aspects. Moreover, the long-term economic profitability of biofuels depends on future energy and climate policies, which are usually not considered in techno-economic feasibility studies. This paper combines the LCA method and a TIMES energy system model, to offer a simultaneous assessment of potential environmental impacts and market penetration under different energy and climate policy scenarios of emerging energy pathways. This combined approach is applied to butanol produced from pre-hydrolysate in a Canadian Kraft dissolving pulp mill. Indeed, the integration of biorefinery processes into existing pulp and paper mills has been identified as a promising avenue to maintain mills activities. It could increase and diversify revenues, keep the forestry-based communities alive, and potentially mitigate climate change by replacing fossil-based fuels or products. Results show that (1) the energy efficiency of the butanol production process is a critical aspect to consider in future design and implementation steps in order to make butanol a competitive fuel among all other alternative fuels, (2) with a 50% internal heat recovery, butanol has a role to play in the transportation sector under climate policy scenarios, and may have a lower carbon footprint than gasoline as estimated by a 2010 US EPA study, and (3) higher supply costs for feedstock might undermine the competitiveness of butanol on the medium term (2030), but probably not on the long-term (2050). This combination of assessment methods is replicable to analyze any types of emerging energy pathways in Canada and in other countries, and to help designing more sustainable forest biorefinery processes in other countries with important forest sector.

TTIP and Climate Change:

In the summer of 2013, the European Union (EU) and the United States (US) launched negotiations for the conclusion of a bilateral free trade agreement, the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP). There has been no information so far as to whether the parties to TTIP are discussing the inclusion in the agreement of provisions specifically related to climate change. It is also uncertain if TTIP will finally be concluded, given the strong opposition in some EU Member States and the election of Donald Trump as President of the US. The concerns underlying the discussion of TTIP however are part of a broader discourse taking place in many other fora for trade negotiations around the world. The considerations hereafter may be of relevance well beyond the case of TTIP. The article examines the impact that TTIP could have on existing and future climate policies and laws from the inclusion of provisions on investment protection including investor-to-State dispute settlement (ISDS), the reduction of non-tariff barriers and the introduction of rules for trade in energy and raw materials. It argues that from an environmental perspective, ISDS should not necessarily be seen as a regime that goes against the defence of the environment or prevention of climate change. Although it might be used to challenge policies of a home State that increase levels of environmental protection, it can also be used to contest changes in home State’s environmental policies that would reduce the protection of the environment. Benefits for the climate could further be seized from harmonisation of carbon laws at the level of the strictest regulations of two parties and provisions that promote trade in low-carbon technologies and renewables.

Joint Crediting Mechanism under the Paris Agreement and Its Implication to the Climate Policy in Korea

Before the Conference of Parties (COP) 21 of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) in 2015, most parties of UNFCCC had submitted their intended nationally determined contributions (INDCs) and to achieve their voluntary targets, some parties consider using international market mechanisms. As one of such mechanisms, Japan promoted its own bilateral mechanism called Joint Crediting Mechanism (JCM). In this study, feasibility studies and projects under JCM have been analyzed by project type, sector, country and region, which could provide some implications in designing Korea’s future climate policy to achieve Korea’s targets of 11.7% using international market mechanism in INDC. Since 2010, JCM has promoted 542 projects and feasibility studies in 44 countries according to the Institute for Global Environmental Strategies (IGES) database. Among 542 projects, about 80% were feasibility studies implying that JCM was more focused on project identification. However, current trends of JCM show that more projects will be soon implemented based on these feasibility studies. For sectoral categorization, projects were categorized into seven sectors-energy technology, energy efficiency, renewable energy, waste management, city, strategic planning and projects related to the country’s efforts to reduce emissions from deforestation and forest degradation (REDD+). JCM projects were mitigation focused with more than 70% of projects were related to energy efficiency, renewable energy and energy technology. At the regional and country level, JCM is highly focused on Asia and especially, more than 100 projects were developed in Indonesia. Based on the analysis of JCM, in order to develop bilateral international mechanism for Korea, it is worthwhile to emphasize that Korea considers Asian countries as her partner. In addition, Korea may consider the collaboration with Multilateral Development Banks (MDBs) to implement projects identified by Korea and Asian partner countries. Furthermore, strategically, it is recommendable to develop jointly with Japan who has already capacity and networks with other Asian countries to mitigate GHG emissions. Such financial resources from MDBs and Japan may contribute to meet the 11.3% of GHG reduction target from abroad according to INDC of Korea.

Impact of future climate policy scenarios on air quality and aerosol-cloud interactions using an advanced version of CESM/CAM5: Part I. model evaluation for the current decadal simulations

A version of the Community Earth System Model modified at the North Carolina State University (CESM-NCSU) is used to simulate the current and future atmosphere following the representative concentration partway scenarios for stabilization of radiative forcing at 4.5 W m−2 (RCP4.5) and radiative forcing of 8.5 W m−2 (RCP8.5). Part I describes the results from a comprehensive evaluation of current decadal simulations. Radiation and most meteorological variables are well simulated in CESM-NCSU. Cloud parameters are not as well simulated due in part to the tuning of model radiation and general biases in cloud variables common to all global chemistry-climate models. The concentrations of most inorganic aerosol species (i.e., SO42-, NH4+, and NO3−) are well simulated with normalized mean biases (NMBs) typically less than 20%. However, some notable exceptions are European NH4+, which is overpredicted by 33.0–42.2% due to high NH3 emissions and irreversible coarse mode condensation, and Cl−, that is negatively impacted by errors in emissions driven by wind speed and overpredicted HNO3. Carbonaceous aerosols are largely underpredicted following the RCP scenarios due to low emissions of black carbon, organic carbon, and anthropogenic volatile compounds in the RCP inventory and efficient wet removal. This results in underpredictions of PM2.5 and PM10 by 6.4–55.7%. The column mass abundances are reasonably well simulated. Larger biases occur in surface mixing ratios of trace gases in CESM-NCSU, likely due to numerical diffusion from the coarse grid spacing of the CESM-NCSU simulations or errors in the magnitudes and vertical structure of emissions. This is especially true for SO2 and NO2. The mixing ratio of O3 is overpredicted by 38.9–76.0% due to the limitations in the O3 deposition scheme used in CESM and insufficient titration resulted from large underpredictions in NO2. Despite these limitations, CESM-NCSU reproduces reasonably well the current atmosphere in terms of radiation, clouds, meteorology, trace gases, aerosols, and aerosol-cloud interactions, making it suitable for future climate simulations.

Impact of future climate policy scenarios on air quality and aerosol-cloud interactions using an advanced version of CESM/CAM5: Part II. Future trend analysis and impacts of projected anthropogenic emissions

Following a comprehensive evaluation of the Community Earth System Model modified at the North Carolina State University (CESM-NCSU), Part II describes the projected changes in the future state of the atmosphere under the representative concentration partway scenarios (RCP4.5 and 8.5) by 2100 for the 2050 time frame and examine the impact of climate change on future air quality under both scenarios, and the impact of projected emission changes under the RCP4.5 scenario on future climate through aerosol direct and indirect effects. Both the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 simulations predict similar changes in air quality by the 2050 period due to declining emissions under both scenarios. The largest differences occur in O3, which decreases by global mean of 1.4 ppb under RCP4.5 but increases by global mean of 2.3 ppb under RCP8.5 due to differences in methane levels, and PM10, which decreases by global mean of 1.2 μg m−3 under RCP4.5 and increases by global mean of 0.2 μg m−3 under RCP8.5 due to differences in dust and sea-salt emissions under both scenarios. Enhancements in cloud formation in the Arctic and Southern Ocean and increases of aerosol optical depth (AOD) in central Africa and South Asia dominate the change in surface radiation in both scenarios, leading to global average dimming of 1.1 W m−2 and 2.0 W m−2 in the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios, respectively. Declines in AOD, cloud formation, and cloud optical thickness from reductions of emissions of primary aerosols and aerosol precursors under RCP4.5 result in near surface warming of 0.2 °C from a global average increase of 0.7 W m−2 in surface downwelling solar radiation. This warming leads to a weakening of the Walker Circulation in the tropics, leading to significant changes in cloud and precipitation that mirror a shift in climate towards the negative phase of the El Nino Southern Oscillation.

The Paris Agreement as a step backward to gain momentum: Lessons from and for theory

L’Accord de Paris nous a déplacé d’un monde où les accords fermes de partage du fardeau, comme pour le Protocole de Kyoto, étaient standards à un monde où la politique climatique se réduit à l’engagement et le réajustement. Cela a néanmoins permis de donner un nouvel élan à la politique climatique. Dans ce papier nous soutenons que les approches en termes de jeux n’ont pas encore intégré ce changement dans la mesure où elles ont été conçues pour analyser les accords sur le partage du fardeau, ou encore les accords où les signataires finissent par ne faire qu’un. Malgré cela, certains éléments marquants de cette littérature conserve toute leur pertinence pour guider la politique climatique future dans ce nouveau contexte.

Sustainable Management of Tropical Forests Can Reduce Carbon Emissions and Stabilize Timber Production

The REDD+ scheme of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change has provided opportunities to manage tropical forests for timber production and carbon emission reductions. To determine the appropriate logging techniques, we analyzed potential timber production and carbon emission reductions under two logging techniques over a 40-year period of selective logging. We found that use of reduced-impact logging (RIL) techniques alone in tropical production forests could reduce carbon emissions equivalent to 29-50% of net emissions from tropical deforestation and land use change, while also supplying 45% of global round-wood demand. Adopting RIL plus (RIL+) other improvements in forest management (adopting forest certification and DNA timber tracking to prevent illegal logging) and wood conversion practices (adopting technology to increase recovery of sawn wood), would result in increasing long-term carbon storage in sawn-wood and reduce logging-induced fire-prone wood wastes by 14-184%. For this to happen, about US$2 billion or $1.86 per Mg CO2 in financial incentives are needed annually for parties to adopt RIL+ and to prevent premature re-entry logging. Our findings suggest that future climate policies explicitly include RIL+ to satisfy the “sustainable management of forests” proviso in the REDD+ scheme, and also count carbon in wood products as eligible credits for trading.

Global climate policy and deep decarbonization of energy-intensive industries

If we are to limit global warming to 2 °C, all sectors in all countries must reduce their emissions of GHGs to zero not later than 2060–2080. Zero-emission options have been less explored and are less developed in the energy-intensive basic materials industries than in other sectors. Current climate policies have not yet motivated major efforts to decarbonize this sector, and it has been largely protected from climate policy due to the perceived risks of carbon leakage and a focus on short-term reduction targets to 2020. We argue that the future global climate policy regime must develop along three interlinked and strategic lines to facilitate a deep decarbonization of energy-intensive industries. First, the principle of common but differentiated responsibility must be reinterpreted to allow for a dialogue on fairness and the right to development in relation to industry. Second, a greater focus on the development, deployment and transfer of technology in this sector is called for. Third, the potential conflicts between current free trade regimes and motivated industrial policies for deep decarbonization must be resolved. One way forward is to revisit the idea of sectoral approaches with a broader scope, including not only emission reductions, but recognizing the full complexity of low-carbon transitions in energy-intensive industries. A new approach could engage industrial stakeholders, support technology research, development and demonstration and facilitate deployment through reducing the risk for investors. The Paris Agreement allows the idea of sectoral approaches to be revisited in the interests of reaching our common climate goals.Policy relevanceDeep decarbonization of energy-intensive industries will be necessary to meet the 2 °C target. This requires major innovation efforts over a long period. Energy-intensive industries face unique challenges from both innovation and technical perspectives due to the large scale of facilities, the character of their global markets and the potentially high mitigation costs. This article addresses these challenges and discusses ways in which the global climate policy framework should be developed after the Paris Agreement to better support transformative change in the energy-intensive industries.

Climate change adaptation: factors influencing Chinese smallholder farmers’ perceived self-efficacy and adaptation intent

Understanding how individuals perceive their ability to adapt to climate change is critical to understanding adaptation decision-making. Drawing on a survey of 483 smallholder farmer households in the Loess Plateau region of China, we examine the factors that shape smallholder farmer perceptions of their ability to adapt to climate change and their stated intent to do so. We apply a proportional odds ordered logistic regression model to identify the role that determinants of adaptive capacity play in shaping smallholders’ perceived self-efficacy and adaptation intent. Our study provides further evidence that self-efficacy beliefs are a strong, positive predictor of adaptation intent. Our study suggests that human capital, information and technology, material resources and infrastructure, wealth and financial capital, and institutions and entitlements all play an important role in shaping smallholder perceived self-efficacy, while state-society dependencies may reduce smallholder perceived self-efficacy. In addition, our study suggests that perceiving climate change risks and impacts do not necessarily lead to an intention to adapt. Overall, our findings highlight the importance of incorporating both the objective determinants of smallholders’ adaptive capacity and their subjective perceptions of these objective determinants into future climate change adaptation programs and policies in order to facilitate adaptive actions. Identifying factors that cause individuals to have a low estimation of their adaptive ability may allow planned adaptation interventions to address these perceived limitations and encourage adaptive behavior.

A new consumption-based accounting model for greenhouse gases from 1948 to 2012

Greenhouse gas emissions embodied in international trade have grown rapidly as globalization has progressed and potentially threaten the efficacy of unilateral climate treaties such as the Kyoto Protocol. Consumption-based methods have been put forward as a way of overcoming this issue and help design future climate policies. We improve the Long-term Consumption-based Accounting (LCBA) model, with transfer carbon data from 1948 to 2012 by introducing country-specific import intensities and detailed bilateral trade data from UNcomtrade. Comparisons of our new “LCBA2″ model with existing 4 studies show similar consumption based emission patterns both in trend and magnitude, and significant emission changes in many European countries. The results independently confirm previous findings on the efficacy of the Kyoto Protocol. The results indicate transferred emissions have contributed an historic 36 Gt CO2 of cumulative emissions, have grown rapidly during the past 30 years (up to 8% of total emissions) and are likely to become increasingly influential in the near future as the global economy recovers. We also use the improved model to study other gases (CH4, N2O and SO2) embodied in trade, and results indicate similar transfer patterns as CO2 with comparable or even moderately larger magnitudes. Across-method result differences between LCBA2 with 3 other models are analyzed based on using common input datasets. Large emitters show moderate biases (within 10%) and about 75% of countries have differences within 25%, independent of input dataset. The LCBA2 model provides useful estimates of transferred emissions in both across-country and long-term historical contexts.

Can climate policy enhance sustainability?

Implementing an effective climate policy is one of the main challenges for the future. Curbing greenhouse gas emissions can prevent future irreversible impacts of climate change. Climate policy is therefore crucial for present and future generations. Nonetheless, one may wonder whether future economic and social development could be harmed by climate policy. This paper addresses this question by examining recent developments in international climate policy and considering different levels of cooperation that may arise in light of the outcomes of the Conference of the Parties held in Doha. The paper analyses how various climate policy scenarios would enhance sustainability and whether there is a trade-off between climate policy and economic development and social cohesion. This is done by using a new comprehensive indicator, the FEEM Sustainability Index (FEEM SI), which aggregates several economic, social, and environmental indicators. The FEEM SI is built into a recursive-dynamic computable general equilibrium model of the world economy, thus offering the possibility of projecting all indicators into the future and of delivering a perspective assessment of sustainability under different future climate policy scenarios. We find that the environmental component of sustainability improves at the regional and world level thanks to the implementation of climate policies. Overall sustainability increases in all scenarios since the economic and social components are affected negatively yet marginally. This analysis does not include explicitly climate change damages and this may lead to underestimating the benefits of policy actions. If the USA, Canada, Japan and Russia did not contribute to mitigating emissions, sustainability in these countries would decrease and the overall effectiveness of climate policy in enhancing global sustainability would be offset.

Exploring synergies between climate and air quality policies using long-term global and regional emission scenarios

In this paper, we present ten scenarios developed using the IMAGE2.4 framework (Integrated Model to Assess the Global Environment) to explore how different assumptions on future climate and air pollution policies influence emissions of greenhouse gases and air pollutants. These scenarios describe emission developments in 26 world regions for the 21st century, using a matrix of climate and air pollution policies. For climate policy, the study uses a baseline resulting in forcing levels slightly above RCP6.0 and an ambitious climate policy scenario similar to RCP2.6. For air pollution, the study explores increasingly tight emission standards, ranging from no improvement, current legislation and three variants assuming further improvements. For all pollutants, the results show that more stringent control policies are needed after 2030 to prevent a rise in emissions due to increased activities and further reduce emissions. The results also show that climate mitigation policies have the highest impact on SO2 and NOX emissions, while their impact on BC and OC emissions is relatively low, determined by the overlap between greenhouse gas and air pollutant emission sources. Climate policy can have important co-benefits; a 10% decrease in global CO2 emissions by 2100 leads to a decrease of SO2 and NOX emissions by about 10% and 5%, respectively compared to 2005 levels. In most regions, low levels of air pollutant emissions can also be achieved by solely implementing stringent air pollution policies. The largest differences across the scenarios are found in Asia and other developing regions, where a combination of climate and air pollution policy is needed to bring air pollution levels below those of today.

Biofuel Mandating and the Green Paradox

The green paradox arises when producers of carbon resources hasten extraction, in anticipation of future climate policies. Overlooked, in this proliferating literature, is the ability for clean substitute producers to anticipate and react to such policy. We show that when a finite carbon resource and clean substitute are consumed simultaneously, preannounced climate policy leads to the green paradox when producers of the clean substitute are myopic. Conversely, when they can accumulate capacity and are therefore forward looking, the green paradox may or may not result. In this setting, we analytically show that its occurrence depends both on the size of the discount rate and the remaining stock of carbon resource. These and other drivers of the green paradox are subsequently investigated in a detailed multi-producer game-theoretic model calibrated to real-world global oil market data. The timing of mandating policy is shown to be the single most important variable for mitigating the green paradox. Moreover, for EU-2020 and US-2022 style biofuel mandating targets, a rather robust 0.3 percent decline in global crude oil supply is observed during the pre-mandate phase, suggesting that concerns over the green paradox may be overstated.

Business case uncertainty of power plants in future energy systems with wind power

The European power sector is transforming due to climate policies and an increased deployment of intermittent RES. The sector will require thermal power plants for the decades to come, but their business cases are (negatively) affected by this transformation. This study presents a novel tool to quantify the effect of policy, price and project-related uncertainties on power plant business cases. This tool can support policymakers in stimulating necessary investments in new thermal generation capacity. We find that these investments are currently unsound (power plants recoup on average –12% to 59% of their initial investment). Future climate policy, i.e. the CO2 price, has a very strong impact on business cases (affects the profitability by 5–40%-points). The impact of the deployment of wind power is average (2–8%-point difference between 10% and 21% wind penetration). Variations in annual wind power production barely affect the profitability (variation of ±1%-point). To stimulate new investments, policymakers should first decrease the uncertainty in business cases caused by policy. Durable climate policy is especially important. Also, policies to increase the profits of thermal power plants should be carefully considered and implemented. This combined approach will reduce the revenue gap that needs to be bridged by supportive policies.

The elephant in the room – A comparative study of uncertainties in carbon offsets

The clean development mechanism (CDM) is a flexible mechanism under the Kyoto Protocol, which makes it possible for developed countries to offset their emissions of greenhouse gases through investing in climate change mitigation projects in developing countries. When the mitigation benefit of a CDM project is quantified, measurable uncertainties arise that can be minimised using established statistical methods. In addition, some unmeasurable uncertainties arise, such as the rebound effect of demand-side energy efficiency projects. Many project types related to land use, land-use change and forestry (LULUCF) have been excluded from the CDM in part because of the high degree of statistical uncertainty in measurements of the carbon sink and risk of non-permanence. However, recent discussions within the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) have opened up for the possibility of including more LULUCF activities in the future. In the light of this discussion, we highlight different aspects of uncertainties in LULUCF projects (e.g. the risk of non-permanence and the size of the carbon sink) in relation to other CDM project categories such as renewables and demand-side energy efficiency. We quantify the uncertainties, compare the magnitudes of the uncertainties in different project categories and conclude that uncertainties could be just as significant in CDM project categories such as renewables as in LULUCF projects. The CDM is a useful way of including and engaging developing countries in climate change mitigation and could be a good source of financial support for LULUCF mitigation activities. Given their enormous mitigation potential, we argue that additional LULUCF activities should be included in the CDM and other future climate policy instruments. Furthermore, we note that Nationally Appropriate Mitigation Actions (NAMAs) are currently being submitted to the UNFCCC by developing countries. Unfortunately, the under-representation of LULUCF in comparison to its potential is evident in the NAMAs submitted so far, just as it has been in the CDM. Capacity building under the CDM may influence NAMAs and there is a risk of transferring the view on uncertainties to NAMAs.

Climate Engineering Economics

This article reviews and evaluates the nascent literature on the economics of climate engineering. The literature distinguishes between two broad types of climate engineering: solar radiation management and carbon dioxide removal. We review the science and engineering characteristics of these technologies and analyze the implications of those characteristics for economic policy design. We discuss optimal policy and carbon price, interregional and intergenerational equity issues, strategic interaction in the design of international environmental agreements, and the sources of risk and uncertainty surrounding these technologies. We conclude that climate engineering technologies, similar to mitigation and adaptation, should be a fundamental part of future domestic and global climate policy design. We propose several avenues in need of additional research.