Future Climate Change Scenarios Research Articles

Exploring the Impact of Climate Change on Water Resources for Vegetation Covers in Extremadura (Spain)

Mediterranean areas will likely undergo climate shifts in the near future that modify the water resources for vegetation. However, in some regions of southwestern Spain, such as Extremadura, the impact of different future scenarios on the water resources for vegetation has not been studied extensively. This study focused on the quantification and spatial distribution of water resources for vegetation covers in Extremadura and analyzed the impact of future climate change scenarios on those water resources. For this, five downscaled global climate models from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6) were used in four future periods (from 2021 to 2100) following two Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP-2.45 and SSP-5.85). These projections were compared with a historical baseline period (1970–2000) to obtain the variation of water resources. The results showed decreases in the water resources for all the scenarios and periods analyzed compared to those observed in the historical baseline period. The smallest decreases were noted over 2041–2060 for SSP2-4.5, with almost 74% of the region decreasing between 15 and 18% (with an average of 16.4%). The greatest decreases were over 2081–2100 for SSP5-8.5, in which 90% of the region displayed water resource declines of greater than 50%. In this last situation, the three more widespread vegetation covers (agrosilvopastoral systems of dehesas, grasslands, and crops) underwent similar declines of around 55% of their water resources (from ≈203 to ≈93 mm), while the fourth widely spread vegetation cover, forests, declined by 49% (from ≈261 to ≈133 mm). If any of these future projections occur, the decline in water resources could modify the forest composition and structure of these water-dependent ecosystems, compromising their maintenance and ecological, cultural, and economic functions.

Predicting habitat suitability for the Australian cycad-attacking weevil (Siraton internatus) under climate change

Cycads hold important economic and conservation value. Some species are extensively used in landscaping, while others are endangered and legally protected. The Australian cycad-attacking weevil, Siraton internatus, is notably destructive, occasionally causing infestations and invasions across various countries. This study simulated habitat suitability for S. internatus to assess its potential invasion and the impact of climate change. Habitat suitability was evaluated under current climate and four climate change scenarios over two time frames (2050 and 2090). Furthermore, we investigated the threat posed by S. internatus to cycad reserves, using Taiwanese reserves as a representative case. Our MaxEnt predictions demonstrated high accuracy, meeting multiple evaluation criteria. We explored the potential distribution of S. internatus within Australia and internationally, identifying suitable habitats in Africa, the Americas, Asia, and Europe. The case study highlighted the low habitat suitability within the two Taiwanese cycad reserves, which is projected to decrease to unsuitable levels under future climate change scenarios for this weevil species. Moreover, our results revealed that suitable habitat for S. internatus is projected to contract globally under all climate scenarios and time periods, but expansion in Chile and the southern Himalaya (e.g., Nepal). This study provides valuable insights into cycad conservation and pest invasion risks. The results support both global and local efforts to manage the invasion threats from this destructive Australian cycad-attacking weevil species. It also accentuates the urgency for continuous biosecurity inspections and prevention of exporting mature cycad caudexes from Australia.

Analyzing energy consumption due to occupant interaction with manual and automatic window blinds in multiple climates

Proper daylight management through automated or manual blind systems can enhance user comfort and energy conservation. Furthermore, the influence of weather conditions, coupled with occupant behavior, significantly impacts energy consumption, rendering weather forecasts invaluable in conducting individual building energy simulations to identify energy-efficient strategies for the future. Also, I wonder if it is possible to move some items from room 308 until you can provide items from other resources. Future weather conditions and their impact on building performance can be evaluated using Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) scenarios provided by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). This research aimed to compare the energy usage of manual and automated window blinds with internal blinds in mid-size office buildings across four main climate zones (2B Hot-Dry; 2A Hot-Humid; 7 Very Cold; 4A Mixed-Humid) in the USA under current and future climate change scenarios (RCP 4.5, 8.5). Utilizing simulation as the methodology and comparing the energy use resulting from the RCP 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios revealed that the most significant decrease in heating energy usage was happening in the Hot-Humid zone with Automated blinds, which is a more efficient alternative than manual Blinds. In contrast, the Very Cold zone experienced almost no changes in either heating or cooling energy consumption. In Climate Zones 2B Hot-Dry and 7 Very Cold, rising temperatures lead to increased cooling energy requirements and reduced heating demands due to climate changes. Climate Zone 4A Mixed-Humid saw reduced energy consumption for cooling but increased usage for heating, particularly under RCP 8.5. In Zone 2A Hot-Humid, a high demand for heating energy was found.

Seasonal coupling of iron (hydr-) oxides and organic carbon across elevations in Phragmites marshes of Yangtze Estuary

As sea levels rise, coastal tidal wetlands are increasingly threatened by flooding and salt stress, highlighting the importance of iron (Fe) (hydr-) oxides in soil for stabilizing organic carbon (OC). This study focuses on Phragmites australis, common in the Yangtze River Estuary, exploring the interplay between OC and Fe (hydr-) oxides in the rhizosphere of P. australis across various seasons and elevations. It also examines microbial community shifts in the Fe oxidation–reduction cycle. Results show that in the non-growing season (January), Fe (hydr-) oxides and total organic carbon (TOC) levels in the rhizosphere soil of high-tide P. australis are significantly higher than during the growing season (August), with a notable increase in Fe oxide-bound OC (Fe-OC). The content of Fe-OC in tidal wetland soil fluctuates with plant growth stages and elevation. Notably, during the growing season, the Fe-OC content in the rhizosphere of low-tide P. australis is markedly higher than in high-tide areas, reversing in the non-growing season. The presence of P. australis roots is found to significantly enhance the accumulation and coupling of Fe (hydr-) oxides and OC, especially in low-tide areas compared to bare flats. This coupling is affected by the organic matter contributed by roots, microbial metabolism, and redox conditions of the soil. The study also highlights how plant and microbial metabolism regulate the response of rhizosphere Fe-OC across different tidal flat elevations. In low-tide environments during the non-growing season, the prevalence of Fe-reducing bacteria results in decreased Fe-OC content, while in high-tide areas, increased organic matter input boosts complexed Fe-OC formation. Overall, this study emphasizes the significance of plant metabolism in understanding the impact of sea level rise on Fe-OC stores in tidal wetlands, a vital factor for comprehending C cycling mechanisms and assessing C sequestration potential under future climate change scenarios.

Seedling dynamics differ between canopy species and understory species in a tropical seasonal rainforest, SW China

We used 11 years of census data from 450 seedling quadrats established in a 20-ha forest dynamics plot to study seedling dynamics in tree species of a tropical seasonal rainforest in Xishuangbanna, southwestern China. We found that overall seedling recruitment rate and relative growth rate were higher in the rainy season than in the dry season. Both the recruitment rate of seedlings from canopy tree species (two species) and the relative growth rate of seedlings from understory species (nine species) were higher in the rainy season than in the dry season. However, in the rainy season, the recruitment rate of seedlings was higher for canopy tree species than for understory tree species. In addition, relative growth rate of seedlings was higher in the canopy species than in understory seedlings in the dry season. We also observed that, in both rainy and dry seasons, mortality rate of seedlings was higher for canopy species than for understory species. Overall, canopy tree species appear to have evolved a flexible strategy to adapt to the seasonal changes of a monsoon climate. In contrast, understory tree species seem to have adopted a conservative strategy. Specifically, these species mainly release seedlings in the rainy season and maintain relatively stable populations with a lower mortality rate and recruitment rate in both dry and rainy seasons. Our study suggests that canopy and understory seedling populations growing in forest understory may respond to future climate change scenarios with distinct regeneration strategies.

Shrubs exhibit competitive interactions with herbaceous plants and shape community assemblage and functional composition in the alpine western Himalaya

AbstractQuestionsIn the alpine region of the Himalaya, shrubs play a vital role in maintaining the diversity and functional composition of associated herbaceous communities through competition–facilitation interactions under varying environmental stress conditions. In this study, we specified the following questions: (1) what is the mode of interaction between dominant shrubs and the associated herbaceous communities; (2) how do differences in resource availability between contrasting microhabitats mediate interactions between shrub and herbaceous communities; and (3) how do dominant shrubs influence the functional composition of herbaceous communities under the canopy as compared to ones in the open?Study areaAn alpine region of the western Himalaya, in India (32.24–33.15° N, 76.51–78.13° E).MethodsField studies were conducted to evaluate the canopy effects of alpine shrubs such as Caragana versicolor, Juniperus polycarpos and Rhododendron anthopogon on species richness, abundance and functional composition of coexisting herbaceous communities.ResultsThe dominant alpine shrubs of the western Himalaya exert competitive interactions with associated herbaceous communities and have low species richness and abundance under their canopies compared to open habitats. Further, contrary to expectations, competitive interactions were more prominent at higher elevations than at lower ones, especially for J. polycarpos and C. versicolor. Although the shrub undercanopies possessed richer soil nutrient pools, this did not contribute toward the facilitation of herbaceous species under the canopies. Moreover, herbaceous species under the canopies were found to exhibit resource‐acquisitive functional strategies, whereas those in the open were resource‐conservative.ConclusionsThe interaction between dominant alpine shrubs and the herbaceous community of the western Himalaya is competitive in nature, which influences species and functional composition and reorganizes herbaceous community assembly. Moreover, under future climate change scenarios the dominance of these shrubs will favour those herbaceous species that possess more competitive and resource‐acquisitive functional strategies.

Drought response modelling of leaf photosynthetic parameters in two Gossypium species

AbstractCotton is well adapted to dry areas, but progressive water deficits can lead to declines in net photosynthesis (A), ultimately reducing yield. However, the exact mechanism responsible for this decline in net photosynthesis (stomatal or non‐stomatal) is not fully understood under field conditions, partially due to limitations in the ability to collect critical data. To our knowledge, no other study has compared the drought responses of Pima and upland cotton using both CO2 response and chlorophyll fluorescence under field conditions. To this end, a field study was conducted to quantify the impact of progressive mild drought, as measured by midday stomatal conductance to water vapour (gs), on cotton leaf metabolism in Pima and upland cotton. Survey gas exchange and rapid photosynthetic CO2 response (RACiR) were conducted during flowering on the same leaf. The study observed decline in A as gs declined for both species. Correlation analysis indicated typical relationships with A and parameters associated with stomatal limitations such as decreased CO2 inside the leaf and at the site of carboxylation; however, it was found that while Pima exhibited a strong relationship between maximum electron transport rate (Jmax) and electron transport rate (ETR), upland cotton did not. Furthermore, when ETR is broken down into proportions contributing to net photosynthesis and photorespiration (ETRA, ETRP, respectively), we found that a greater proportion of ETR is being shuttled to the photorespiratory pathway in upland, relative to Pima as gs decreases. Our results fill critical knowledge gaps that can be useful for modellers and breeders when preparing for future climate change scenarios.

Global trends and scenarios for terrestrial biodiversity and ecosystem services from 1900 to 2050.

Based on an extensive model intercomparison, we assessed trends in biodiversity and ecosystem services from historical reconstructions and future scenarios of land-use and climate change. During the 20th century, biodiversity declined globally by 2 to 11%, as estimated by a range of indicators. Provisioning ecosystem services increased several fold, and regulating services decreased moderately. Going forward, policies toward sustainability have the potential to slow biodiversity loss resulting from land-use change and the demand for provisioning services while reducing or reversing declines in regulating services. However, negative impacts on biodiversity due to climate change appear poised to increase, particularly in the higher-emissions scenarios. Our assessment identifies remaining modeling uncertainties but also robustly shows that renewed policy efforts are needed to meet the goals of the Convention on Biological Diversity.

Facing climate change: Range dynamics and chromosome diversity in Hedeoma multiflora Benth., a South American aromatic-medicinal plant at risk

Climate change could significantly affect the geographic distribution of plant species. Hedeoma multiflora is a vulnerable medicinal and aromatic herb that distributes in the Pampa, Espinal and Chaco biogeographic provinces in austral South America. This integrated approach combines ecological models and cytogenetic evidence to assess the effects of climate change on this species. Species distribution modelling using the Maxent model was implemented under current climatic conditions and three future climate change scenarios, integrating data from three Global Climate Models. The most suitable areas span 68,557 km2, encompassing the Sierras Pampeanas in San Luis and Córdoba provinces, and the Tandilia and Ventania systems in Buenos Aires, Argentina. The primary variables influencing the models include elevation (500 to 2000 m.a.s.l.), annual mean temperature (10 to 17 °C), annual precipitation (500 to 900 mm) and precipitation seasonality (50 to 75%). While the results project an expansion in the potential distribution of the species, heterogeneous patterns of range shifts are predicted across the three mountain systems: expansion in Sierras Pampeanas, march in Ventania and retraction in the Tandilia system. Variations in chromosome numbers within four distinct localities were reported, indicating the presence of polyploidy. This could potentially provide adaptive advantages in response to changing climates. This plant lives in habitats that face human-induced alterations and insufficient area protected coverage, then we propose strategies for both in situ and ex situ conservation of this medicinal species in each area.

Predicting the Spatial Distribution of the Mangshan Pit Viper (Protobothrops mangshanensis) under Climate Change Scenarios Using MaxEnt Modeling

This study explores the critical issue of understanding the potential impacts of climate change on the habitat suitability of the highly endangered forest-dwelling Mangshan pit viper (Protobothrops mangshanensis) in China. Through the application of the MaxEnt model, high-resolution bioclimatic datasets, and species occurrence data, the research aims to elucidate the spatial and temporal dynamics of P. mangshanensis distribution from the present to the years 2050 and 2070. Through the integration of three climate models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) and exploring different shared socioeconomic pathway (SSP) scenarios (SSP126, SSP370, and SSP585), the study seeks to provide comprehensive insights into the potential variations in habitat suitability under diverse future climate conditions. The methodology employed involves the construction of the MaxEnt model utilizing the BioClim dataset and 83 species occurrence points. The SSP scenarios mentioned above represent future climate change scenarios, and the accuracy of the model is evaluated using the area under the receiver-operating characteristic (ROC) curve (AUC). Key findings reveal that the MaxEnt model exhibits high accuracy (AUC = 0.998), pinpointing the current suitable habitat for P. mangshanensis to be confined to the Mangshan area within the Nanling Mountains, covering an approximate area of 1023.12 km2. However, projections based on future climate scenarios suggest notable shifts in habitat suitability dynamics. While potential suitable habitats may emerge in the northwest of the current range, the existing suitable habitats are anticipated to undergo significant reduction or even complete disappearance. Notably, precipitation during the driest month emerges as a critical determinant influencing the distribution of the species. In conclusion, the study underscores the exacerbating impact of climate change on habitat deterioration and survival risks for P. mangshanensis, emphasizing the urgent need for conservation measures to safeguard the remaining suitable habitats for this endangered species. The implications of these findings are far-reaching, with the anticipated contraction of the snake’s range potentially leading to its disappearance and increased habitat fragmentation. By shedding light on the potential distributional changes of P. mangshanensis in Mangshan, the research provides valuable insights for informing targeted conservation strategies and policy interventions aimed at mitigating the adverse effects of climate change on endangered species.

Potential global distribution of Setaria italica, an important species for dryland agriculture in the context of climate change.

Setaria italica (S. italica, Linnaeus, 1753) is a drought-resistant, barren-tolerant, and widely adapted C-4 crop that plays a vital role in maintaining agricultural and economic stability in arid and barren regions of the world. However, the potential habitat of S. italica under current and future climate scenarios remains to be explored. Predicting the potential global geographic distribution of S. italica and clarifying its ecological requirements can help promote sustainable agriculture, which is crucial for addressing the global food crisis. In this study, we predicted the potential global geographic distribution of S. italica based on 3,154 global distribution records using the Maxent model and ArcGIS software. We assessed the constraints on its potential distribution based on the contribution of environmental factors variables. The predictive accuracy of the Maxent model was evaluated using AUC values, TSS values, and Kappa statistics, respectively. The results showed that the Maxent model had a high prediction accuracy, and the simulation results were also reliable; the total suitable habitats of S. italica is 5.54×107 km2, which mainly included the United States (North America), Brazil (South America), Australia (Oceania), China, India (Asia), and the Russian Federation (Europe). The most suitable habitat of S. italica was 0.52×107 km2, accounting for 9.44% of the total areas, mainly in the United States, India, the Russian Federation, and China. Soil and precipitation (driest monthly precipitation, hottest seasonal precipitation) are the most critical factors limiting the potential distribution of S. italica. Compared with the modern potential distribution, we predict that the four future climate change scenarios will result in varying reductions in the possible geographic ranges of S. italica. Overall, climate change may significantly affect the global distribution of S. italica, altering its worldwide production and trade patterns.

Rising Temperatures, Falling Leaves: Predicting the Fate of Cyprus's Endemic Oak under Climate and Land Use Change.

Endemic island species face heightened extinction risk from climate-driven shifts, yet standard models often underestimate threat levels for those like Quercus alnifolia, an iconic Cypriot oak with pre-adaptations to aridity. Through species distribution modelling, we investigated the potential shifts in its distribution under future climate and land-use change scenarios. Our approach uniquely combines dispersal constraints, detailed soil characteristics, hydrological factors, and anticipated soil erosion data, offering a comprehensive assessment of environmental suitability. We quantified the species' sensitivity, exposure, and vulnerability to projected changes, conducting a preliminary IUCN extinction risk assessment according to Criteria A and B. Our projections uniformly predict range reductions, with a median decrease of 67.8% by the 2070s under the most extreme scenarios. Additionally, our research indicates Quercus alnifolia's resilience to diverse erosion conditions and preference for relatively dry climates within a specific annual temperature range. The preliminary IUCN risk assessment designates Quercus alnifolia as Critically Endangered in the future, highlighting the need for focused conservation efforts. Climate and land-use changes are critical threats to the species' survival, emphasising the importance of comprehensive modelling techniques and the urgent requirement for dedicated conservation measures to safeguard this iconic species.

Modeling the Potential Distribution Patterns of the Invasive Plant Species Phytolacca americana in China in Response to Climate Change.

Phytolacca americana, introduced to China in the 20th century for its medicinal properties, has posed a significant ecological and agricultural challenge. Its prolific fruit production, high reproductive coefficient, adaptability, and toxic roots and fruits have led to the formation of monoculture communities, reducing native species diversity and posing threats to agriculture, human and animal health, and local ecosystems. Understanding its potential distribution patterns at a regional scale and its response to climate change is essential for effective monitoring, management, and control. In this study, we utilized the Maxent model to simulate potential habitat areas of P. americana across three timeframes (current, 2050s, and 2070s) under three climate change scenarios (SSP126, SSP245, and SSP585). Leveraging data from 556 P. americana sites across China, we employed ROC curves to assess the prediction accuracy. Our findings highlight key environmental factors influencing P. americana's geographical distribution, including the driest month's precipitation, the coldest month's minimum temperature, the wettest month's precipitation, isothermality, and temperature annual range. Under current climate conditions, P. americana potentially inhabits 280.26 × 104 km2 in China, with a concentration in 27 provinces and cities within the Yangtze River basin and its southern regions. While future climate change scenarios do not drastically alter the total suitable area, the proportions of high and low-suitability areas decrease over time, shifting towards moderate suitability. Specifically, in the SSP126 scenario, the centroid of the predicted suitable area shifts northeastward and then southwestward. In contrast, in the SSP245 and SSP585 scenarios, the centroid shifts northward.

Hygrothermal response of a wood-frame thick-wall assembly to rainwater wetting under future climate scenarios in Canada

Current exterior wall assembly designs for new low-rise residential buildings targeting low-energy demand in heating dominated countries include split-insulation wall and thick-wall assembly designs. Both have been shown to result in thermal efficiency gains compared to building-code minimum assemblies, however long-term hygrothermal performance can vary depending on boundary conditions and the presence of construction deficiencies. Future climate scenarios estimate many heating-dominated climates will experience a reduction in heating-degree day hours and an increase in annual rainfall. Using validated assembly performance data from a Passive House certified facility, a sensitivity analysis is performed to determine the impact of rainwater wetting, air exfiltration and insulation material properties on the hygrothermal response of a thick-wall assembly. Results show that rainwater leakage values of 0.50% and greater of the adhering rainfall on the exterior surface of the assembly results in the greatest risk for failure. The hygrothermal response of the assembly is then examined under a global temperature rise scenario of 3.5°C for five geographic locations across Canada. Results show that an increase in average annual total rainfall does not directly result in an increase in the failure rate of the assembly when a rainwater leak is present. Additional climatic factors, including outdoor air temperature, driving rain and solar radiation received will influence the hygrothermal response of the assembly and need to be considered when modelling the performance under future climate change scenarios.

Exploring the best nutrient management options for improving the maize yield for future climate change scenario with DSSAT crop simulation model in century old Permanent Manurial Experiment

Increasing the C sequestration potential and higher soil organic carbon stocks with the application of organic manures will reflect in the improvement of crop productivity. Long-term monitoring approach is essential to evaluate these impacts, especially given the escalating effects of climate change on agriculture. Recognizing this, a 112-year-long Permanent Manurial Experiment (PME) at Tamil Nadu Agricultural University, Coimbatore, India, investigates the influence of application of organic manures. Utilizing the DSSAT crop simulation model, the study assessed the impact of organic manure, specifically NPK + FYM (Farm Yard Manure), on maize yield over 25 years on a sandy-loam Alfisol. Data collected from the field experiment including crop growth parameters, management options, weather, and soil data were used for simulations. Results showed a 93.8% agreement between simulated and observed yields, endorsing NPK + FYM treatment with a 20% increase in grain yield by 2032 compared to using 100% NPK alone. Furthermore, the study explored future climate change scenarios’ impact on maize yield. It highlighted that NPK + FYM consistently outperformed other treatments, emphasizing its efficacy in increasing the yields under changing climatic conditions. This approach emerges as promising for enhancing carbon sequestration, elevating soil organic carbon stocks, and significantly improving crop productivity. In conclusion, adopting the NPK + FYM treatment is recommended to achieve optimal maize yield outcomes, surpassing the effects of using NPK or FYM independently. This research signifies the potential of combining organic manures with synthetic fertilizers in sustainable agriculture amid evolving climate challenges.

Optimal Rotation Age in Fast Growing Plantations: A Dynamical Optimization Problem.

Forest plantations are economically and environmentally relevant, as they play a key role in timber production and carbon capture. It is expected that the future climate change scenario affects forest growth and modify the rotation age for timber production. However, mathematical models on the effect of climate change on the rotation age for timber production remain still limited. We aim to determine the optimal rotation age that maximizes the net economic benefit of timber volume in a negative scenario from the climatic point of view. For this purpose, a bioeconomic optimal control problem was formulated from a system of Ordinary Differential Equations (ODEs) governed by the state variables live biomass volume, intrinsic growth rate, and area affected by fire. Then, four control variables were associated to the system, representing forest management activities, which are felling, thinning, reforestation, and fire prevention. The existence of optimal control solutions was demonstrated, and the solutions of the optimal control problem were also characterized using Pontryagin's Maximum Principle. The solutions of the model were approximated numerically by the Forward-Backward Sweep method. To validate the model, two scenarios were considered: a realistic scenario that represents current forestry activities for the exotic species Pinus radiata D. Don, and a pessimistic scenario, which considers environmental conditions conducive to a higher occurrence of forest fires. The optimal solution that maximizes the net benefit of timber volume consists of a strategy that considers all four control variables simultaneously. For felling and thinning, regardless of the scenario considered, the optimal strategy is to spend on both activities depending on the amount of biomass in the field. Similarly, for reforestation, the optimal strategy is to spend as the forest is harvested. In the case of fire prevention, in the realistic scenario, the optimal strategy consists of reducing the expenses in fire prevention because the incidence of fires is lower, whereas in the pessimistic scenario, the opposite is true. It is concluded that the optimal rotation age that maximizes the net economic benefit of timber volume in P. radiata plantations is 24 and 19 years for the realistic and pessimistic scenarios, respectively. This corroborates that the presence of fires influences the determination of the optimal rotation age, and as a consequence, the net economic benefit.

Hypervolume Niche Dynamics and Global Invasion Risk of Phenacoccus solenopsis under Climate Change.

As a globally invasive quarantine pest, the cotton mealybug, Phenacoccus solenopsis, is spreading rapidly, posing serious threats against agricultural and forestry production and biosecurity. In recent years, the niche conservatism hypothesis has been widely debated, which is particularly evident in invasive biology research. Identifying the niche dynamics of P. solenopsis, as well as assessing its global invasion risk, is of both theoretical and practical importance. Based on 462 occurrence points and 19 bioclimatic variables, we used n-dimensional hypervolume analysis to quantify the multidimensional climatic niche of this pest in both its native and invasive ranges. We examined niche conservatism and further optimized the MaxEnt model parameters to predict the global invasion risk of P. solenopsis under both current and future climate conditions. Our findings indicated that the niche hypervolume of this pest in invasive ranges was significantly larger than that in its native ranges, with 99.45% of the niche differentiation contributed by niche expansion, with the remaining less than 1% explained by space replacement. Niche expansion was most evident in Oceania and Eurasia. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (0.83) and true skill statistic (0.62) indicated the model's robust performance. The areas of suitable habitats for P. solenopsis are increasing significantly and the northward spread is obvious in future climate change scenarios. North Africa, northern China, Mediterranean regions, and northern Europe had an increased invasion risk of P. solenopsis. This study provided scientific support for the early warning and control of P. solenopsis.

Building energy savings by green roofs and cool roofs in current and future climates

The global energy demand has greatly impacted greenhouse gas emissions and climate change. Since buildings are responsible for a large portion of global energy consumption, this study investigates the energy-saving potential of green roofs and cool roofs in reducing building energy consumption. Using an integrated approach that combines climate change modeling and building energy simulation, the study evaluates these strategies in six global cities (Cairo, Hong Kong, Seoul, London, Los Angeles, and Sao Paulo) under current and future climate change scenarios. The results show that in future climates, the implementation of green and cool roofs at the city level can lead to substantial annual energy reductions, with up to 65.51% and 71.72% reduction in HVAC consumption, respectively, by 2100. These findings can guide the implementation of these strategies in different climatic zones worldwide, informing the selection and design of suitable roof mitigation strategies for specific urban contexts.

Habitat suitability model of future coral reef region in the Halmahera Waters under the projection of environmental pressures from future climate change and coastal pollution

The coral reef region of the Halmahera waters situated within the tropical area of the coral triangle, covers approximately 193,126 km2, with coral reef habitats occupying roughly 958.47 km2. The coral reefs in Halmahera waters are essential for ecosystem services and local fisheries. However, they are at risk from climate change and coastal pollution. This study aimed to develop habitat suitability models for coral reefs in the Halmahera waters under future climate change scenarios. MaxEnt modeling was employed to project suitability for the coral Acropora spp. using occurrence data. Suitability projections were made for 2050 under IPCC RCP 2.6, 6.0, and 8.5 scenarios, assuming no measures are taken to mitigate coastal water pollution. Environmental factors considered in the modeling included temperature, salinity, current velocity, pH, sunlight penetration, and chlorophyll levels. Results demonstrated a significant decline in habitat suitability, with an 85% loss of highly suitable areas under RCP 2.6 – 8.5 compared to current conditions (741 km2). Chlorophyll levels, a marker of coastal pollution, were predicted to be the most influential factor, followed by temperature and salinity. The findings highlight the need to reduce global carbon emissions and implement conservation measures to mitigate coastal water pollution in preserving coral reef habitats.

Climate and soil properties regulate the initial concentrations of potassium, calcium and magnesium in plant litter on a global scale

Abstract The initial concentration of litter nutrient not only affects the following decomposition process but also determines the quantities of nutrients returned to the soil. The aim of this study is to assess the global patterns and driving factors of three macronutrients, namely potassium (K), calcium (Ca) and magnesium (Mg), in freshly fallen litter. By synthesizing 5861 data points extracted from 584 publications, we quantitatively evaluated the concentrations of litter K, Ca and Mg in different litter types, life forms, taxonomic divisions and mycorrhizal associations. Also, using the machine learning method, we predicted their global patterns in forests, grasslands and shrublands. We found that (1) mean K, Ca and Mg concentrations ranged from 2.63 to 6.23, 1.05 to 11.50 and 0.20 to 2.74 g/kg, respectively, across different litter types; (2) the initial nutrients of the litter were significantly affected by plant functional types (e.g. life form, taxonomic division and mycorrhizal association), climate (e.g. isothermality, mean diurnal range, annual evapotranspiration and precipitation seasonality) and soil properties (e.g. pH, exchangeable Ca concentration and water content), with a higher litter K concentration of herbaceous plants, higher K, Ca and Mg concentrations from angiosperms and higher K and Mg concentrations from plants associated with arbuscular mycorrhiza (AM) fungi; and (3) the predicted leaf litter K, Ca and Mg concentrations were lower in high‐latitude regions compared with those in low‐ and/or mid‐latitude regions. Our study provides a globally comprehensive analysis on the patterns and driving factors of three important macronutrients in freshly fallen litter, contributing to a better understanding of their role in the decomposition process of litter, as well as the associated biogeochemical cycles under the future climate change scenario. Read the free Plain Language Summary for this article on the Journal blog.