Models Of Future Climate Change Research Articles

Predicting future climate change impacts on the potential distribution of the black howler monkey (Alouatta pigra): an endangered arboreal primate.

Climate change is one of the main factors affecting biodiversity worldwide at an alarming rate. In addition to increases in global extreme weather events, melting of polar ice caps, and subsequent sea level rise, climate change might shift the geographic distribution of species. In recent years, interest in understanding the effects of climate change on species distribution has increased, including species which depend greatly on forest cover for survival, such as strictly arboreal primates. Here, we generate a series of species distribution models (SDMs) to evaluate future projections under different climate change scenarios on the distribution of the black howler monkey (Alouatta pigra), an endemic endangered primate species. Using SDMs, we assessed current and future projections of their potential distribution for three Social Economic Paths (SSPs) for the years 2030, 2050, 2070, and 2090. Specifically, we found that precipitation seasonality (BIO15, 30.8%), isothermality (BIO3, 25.4%), and mean diurnal range (BIO2, 19.7.%) are the main factors affecting A. pigra distribution. The future climate change models suggested a decrease in the potential distribution of A. pigra by projected scenarios (from - 1.23 to - 12.66%). The highly suitable area was the most affected above all in the more pessimist scenario most likely related to habitat fragmentation. Our study provides new insights into the potential future distribution and suitable habitats of Alouatta pigra. Such information could be used by local communities, governments, and non-governmental organizations for conservation planning of this primate species.

Impacts of soil erosion and climate change on the built heritage of the Pambamarca Fortress Complex in northern Ecuador.

The Pambamarca fortress complex in northern Ecuador is a cultural and built heritage with 18 prehispanic fortresses known as Pucaras. They are mostly located on the ridge of the Pambamarca volcano, which is severely affected by erosion. In this research, we implemented a multiscale methodology to identify sheet, rill and gully erosion in the context of climate change for the prehistoric sites. In a first phase, we coupled the Revised Universal Soil Loss Equation (RUSLE) and four CMIP6 climate models to evaluate and prioritize which Pucaras are prone to sheet and rill erosion, after comparing historical and future climate scenarios. Then, we conducted field visits to collect geophotos and soil samples for validation purposes, as well as drone flight campaigns to derive high resolution digital elevation models and identify gully erosion with the stream power index. Our erosion maps achieved an overall accuracy of 0.75 when compared with geophotos and correlated positively with soil samples sand fraction. The Pucaras evaluated with the historical climate scenario obtained erosion rates ranging between 0 and 20 ton*ha-1*yr-1. These rates also varied from -15.7% to 39.1% for four future climate change models that reported extreme conditions. In addition, after identifying and overflying six Pucaras that showed the highest erosion rates in the future climate models, we mapped their gully-prone areas that represented between 0.9% and 3.2% of their analyzed areas. The proposed methodology allowed us to observe how the design of the Pucaras and their concentric terraces have managed to reduce gully erosion, but also to notice the pressures they suffer due to their susceptibility to erosion, anthropic pressures and climate change. To address this, we suggest management strategies to guide the protection of this cultural and built heritage landscapes.

Extreme Heat and Adverse Cardiovascular Outcomes in Australia and New Zealand: What Do We Know?

Extreme heat events are a leading natural hazard risk to human health. Under all future climate change models, extreme heat events will continue to increase in frequency, duration, and intensity. Evidence from previous extreme heat events across the globe demonstrates that adverse cardiovascular events are the leading cause of morbidity and mortality, particularly amongst the elderly and those with pre-existing cardiovascular disease. However, less is understood about the adverse effects of extreme heat amongst specific cardiovascular diseases (i.e., heart failure, dysrhythmias) and demographics (sex, ethnicity, age) within Australia and New Zealand. Furthermore, although Australia has implemented regional and state heat warning systems, most personal heat-health protective advice available in public health policy documents is either insufficient, not grounded in scientific evidence, and/or does not consider clinical factors such as age or co-morbidities. Dissemination of evidence-based recommendations and enhancing community resilience to extreme heat disasters within Australia and New Zealand should be an area of critical focus to reduce the burden and negative health effects associated with extreme heat. This narrative review will focus on five key areas in relation to extreme heat events within Australia and New Zealand: 1) the potential physiological mechanisms that cause adverse cardiovascular outcomes during extreme heat events; 2) how big is the problem within Australia and New Zealand?; 3) what the heat-health response plans are; 4) research knowledge and translation; and, 5) knowledge gaps and areas for future research.

The effect of short-term temperature exposure on vital physiological processes of mixoplankton and protozooplankton

Sudden environmental changes like marine heatwaves will become more intense and frequent in the future. Understanding the physiological responses of mixoplankton and protozooplankton, key members of marine food webs, to temperature is crucial. Here, we studied two dinoflagellates (one protozoo- and one mixoplanktonic), two ciliates (one protozoo- and one mixoplanktonic), and two cryptophytes. We report the acute (24 h) responses on growth and grazing to a range of temperatures (5–34 °C). We also determined respiration and photosynthetic rates for the four grazers within 6 °C of warming. The thermal performance curves showed that, in general, ciliates have higher optimal temperatures than dinoflagellates and that protozooplankton is better adapted to warming than mixoplankton. Our results confirmed that warmer temperatures decrease the cellular volumes of all species. Q10 coefficients suggest that grazing is the rate that increases the most in response to temperature in protozooplankton. Yet, in mixoplankton, grazing decreased in warmer temperatures, whereas photosynthesis increased. Therefore, we suggest that the Metabolic Theory of Ecology should reassess mixoplankton's position for the correct parameterisation of future climate change models. Future studies should also address the multigenerational response to temperature changes, to confirm whether mixoplankton become more phototrophic than phagotrophic in a warming scenario after adaptation.

The World Is Not Flat: Accounting for the Dynamic Nature of the Environment as We Move Beyond Static Experimental Manipulations.

Although we have long understood that environmental variation affects both physiology and behavior, historically, most studies have limited or simplified environmental variation to focus more directly on traits of interest. Recently, a number of investigators have turned their focus toward attempting to incorporate such variation into studies of physiology and behavior, and not surprisingly, are finding that the results from studies that include more realistic variation, both from the environment as well as in physiological processes within individuals, can differ substantially from those of studies that attempt to hold the parameters constant. Understanding the role that this dynamic variation plays in shaping phenotypes is critical given that, under most predictions from future climate change models, increased variability in factors such as temperature and rainfall are predicted.

The future of cold-adapted plants in changing climates: Micranthes (Saxifragaceae) as a case study.

Research has shown species undergoing range contractions and/or northward and higher elevational movements as a result of changing climates. Here, we evaluate how the distribution of a group of cold‐adapted plant species with similar evolutionary histories changes in response to warming climates. We selected 29 species of Micranthes (Saxifragaceae) representing the mountain and Arctic biomes of the Northern Hemisphere. For this analysis, 24,755 data points were input into ecological niche models to assess both present fundamental niches and predicted future ranges under climate change scenarios. Comparisons were made across the Northern Hemisphere between all cold‐adapted Micranthes, including Arctic species, montane species, and species defined as narrow endemics. Under future climate change models, 72% of the species would occupy smaller geographical areas than at present. This loss of habitat is most pronounced in Arctic species in general, but is also prevalent in species restricted to higher elevations in mountains. Additionally, narrowly endemic species restricted to high elevations were more susceptible to habitat loss than those species found at lower elevations. Using a large dataset and modeling habitat suitability at a global scale, our results empirically model the threats to cold‐adapted species as a result of warming climates. Although Arctic and alpine biomes share many underlying climate similarities, such as cold and short growing seasons, our results confirm that species in these climates have varied responses to climate change and that key abiotic variables differ between these two habitats.

Long-term effects of climate change on carbon storage and tree species composition in a dry deciduous forest.

Forest vegetation and soils have been suggested as potentially important sinks for carbon (C) with appropriate management and thus are implicated as effective tools in stabilizing climate even with increasing anthropogenic release of CO2 . Drought, however, which is often predicted to increase in models of future climate change, may limit net primary productio (NPP) of dry forest types, with unknown effects on soil C storage. We studied C dynamics of a deciduous temperate forest of Hungary that has been subject to significant decreases in precipitation and increases in temperature in recent decades. We resampled plots that were established in 1972 and repeated the full C inventory by analyzing more than 4 decades of data on the number of living trees, biomass of trees and shrubs, and soil C content. Our analyses show that the decline in number and biomass of oaks started around the end of the 1970s with a 71% reduction in the number of sessile oak stems by 2014. Projected growth in this forest, based on the yield table's data for Hungary, was 4.6kg C/m2 . Although new species emerged, this new growth and small increases in oak biomass resulted in only 1.9kg C/m2 increase over 41years. The death of oaks increased inputs of coarse woody debris to the surface of the soil, much of which is still identifiable, and caused an increase of 15.5%, or 2.6kg C/m2 , in the top 1m of soil. Stability of this fresh organic matter input to surface soil is unknown, but is likely to be low based on the results of a colocated woody litter decomposition study. The effects of a warmer and drier climate on the C balance of forests in this region will be felt for decades to come as woody litter inputs decay, and forest growth remains impeded.

Vulnerability of European freshwater catchments to climate change.

Climate change is expected to exacerbate the current threats to freshwater ecosystems, yet multifaceted studies on the potential impacts of climate change on freshwater biodiversity at scales that inform management planning are lacking. The aim of this study was to fill this void through the development of a novel framework for assessing climate change vulnerability tailored to freshwater ecosystems. The three dimensions of climate change vulnerability are as follows: (i) exposure to climate change, (ii) sensitivity to altered environmental conditions and (iii) resilience potential. Our vulnerability framework includes 1685 freshwater species of plants, fishes, molluscs, odonates, amphibians, crayfish and turtles alongside key features within and between catchments, such as topography and connectivity. Several methodologies were used to combine these dimensions across a variety of future climate change models and scenarios. The resulting indices were overlaid to assess the vulnerability of European freshwater ecosystems at the catchment scale (18783 catchments). The Balkan Lakes Ohrid and Prespa and Mediterranean islands emerge as most vulnerable to climate change. For the 2030s, we showed a consensus among the applied methods whereby up to 573 lake and river catchments are highly vulnerable to climate change. The anthropogenic disruption of hydrological habitat connectivity by dams is the major factor reducing climate change resilience. A gap analysis demonstrated that the current European protected area network covers <25% of the most vulnerable catchments. Practical steps need to be taken to ensure the persistence of freshwater biodiversity under climate change. Priority should be placed on enhancing stakeholder cooperation at the major basin scale towards preventing further degradation of freshwater ecosystems and maintaining connectivity among catchments. The catchments identified as most vulnerable to climate change provide preliminary targets for development of climate change conservation management and mitigation strategies.

Climate and species richness predict the phylogenetic structure of African mammal communities.

We have little knowledge of how climatic variation (and by proxy, habitat variation) influences the phylogenetic structure of tropical communities. Here, we quantified the phylogenetic structure of mammal communities in Africa to investigate how community structure varies with respect to climate and species richness variation across the continent. In addition, we investigated how phylogenetic patterns vary across carnivores, primates, and ungulates. We predicted that climate would differentially affect the structure of communities from different clades due to between-clade biological variation. We examined 203 communities using two metrics, the net relatedness (NRI) and nearest taxon (NTI) indices. We used simultaneous autoregressive models to predict community phylogenetic structure from climate variables and species richness. We found that most individual communities exhibited a phylogenetic structure consistent with a null model, but both climate and species richness significantly predicted variation in community phylogenetic metrics. Using NTI, species rich communities were composed of more distantly related taxa for all mammal communities, as well as for communities of carnivorans or ungulates. Temperature seasonality predicted the phylogenetic structure of mammal, carnivoran, and ungulate communities, and annual rainfall predicted primate community structure. Additional climate variables related to temperature and rainfall also predicted the phylogenetic structure of ungulate communities. We suggest that both past interspecific competition and habitat filtering have shaped variation in tropical mammal communities. The significant effect of climatic factors on community structure has important implications for the diversity of mammal communities given current models of future climate change.

Climate-change impacts on water resources and hydropower potential in the Upper Colorado River Basin

Abstract Study region The Upper Colorado River Basin (UCRB), comprised of the Colorado and Gunnison River basins, is the prime water source for much of the western United States. Study focus Future climate change models were used to drive a hydrologic model of the UCRB to evaluate future water resources and hydropower potential of the basin, using three different climate projections. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) emission scenarios, the A2-business as usual, and the B1-reduced emissions scenarios were evaluated. More than 4500 water diversions and 17 reservoirs were incorporated into the hydrologic model. New hydrological insights for the region Precipitation projections from climate models vary up to 16%; flow projections revealed greater differences, up to 50%. The climate models projected increase in temperature at low elevations with extreme seasonality at high elevations, although summer temperatures increased at all elevations. The models projected a 60% decline in precipitation at lower elevations and a 74% increase at high elevations, although precipitation declined during the summer months at all elevations. Using the A2 scenario an overall decrease in annual flow was predicted, attributed to a reduction in precipitation and increasing temperature trends; however, this was not consistent during the winter months, which showed an increase in precipitation at high elevations and a modest temperature increase during the winter and resulted in an increase in stream flow. The responses to climate change on reservoir levels varied basin-wide due to variability in precipitation, evapotranspiration, and stream flow. Simulations indicated that water levels in Blue Mesa Reservoir (the largest reservoir in the UCRB) would decline by more than 70% with increasing annual temperatures. Reservoirs with smaller surface areas to the volume ratio were not significantly impacted by evapotranspiration. Our results indicate that hydropower management strategies in the UCRB must adapt to potential climate change, but the required adaptations are dependent on several factors including reservoir size and location.

Functional Tradeoffs Underpin Salinity-Driven Divergence in Microbial Community Composition

Bacterial community composition and functional potential change subtly across gradients in the surface ocean. In contrast, while there are significant phylogenetic divergences between communities from freshwater and marine habitats, the underlying mechanisms to this phylogenetic structuring yet remain unknown. We hypothesized that the functional potential of natural bacterial communities is linked to this striking divide between microbiomes. To test this hypothesis, metagenomic sequencing of microbial communities along a 1,800 km transect in the Baltic Sea area, encompassing a continuous natural salinity gradient from limnic to fully marine conditions, was explored. Multivariate statistical analyses showed that salinity is the main determinant of dramatic changes in microbial community composition, but also of large scale changes in core metabolic functions of bacteria. Strikingly, genetically and metabolically different pathways for key metabolic processes, such as respiration, biosynthesis of quinones and isoprenoids, glycolysis and osmolyte transport, were differentially abundant at high and low salinities. These shifts in functional capacities were observed at multiple taxonomic levels and within dominant bacterial phyla, while bacteria, such as SAR11, were able to adapt to the entire salinity gradient. We propose that the large differences in central metabolism required at high and low salinities dictate the striking divide between freshwater and marine microbiomes, and that the ability to inhabit different salinity regimes evolved early during bacterial phylogenetic differentiation. These findings significantly advance our understanding of microbial distributions and stress the need to incorporate salinity in future climate change models that predict increased levels of precipitation and a reduction in salinity.

Temperatures and cyclones strongly associated with economic production in the Caribbean and Central America

Understanding the economic impact of surface temperatures is an important question for both economic development and climate change policy. This study shows that in 28 Caribbean-basin countries, the response of economic output to increased temperatures is structurally similar to the response of labor productivity to high temperatures, a mechanism omitted from economic models of future climate change. This similarity is demonstrated by isolating the direct influence of temperature from that of tropical cyclones, an important correlate. Notably, output losses occurring in nonagricultural production (-2.4%/+1 degrees C) substantially exceed losses occurring in agricultural production (-0.1%/+1 degrees C). Thus, these results suggest that current models of future climate change that focus on agricultural impacts but omit the response of workers to thermal stress may underestimate the global economic costs of climate change.

Climate change, nutrient pollution and the bargain of Dr Faustus

Summary1. The legend of Dr Faustus crops up repeatedly in European literature, drama and music, suggesting that it has profound meaning. In our relationship with the biosphere we have perhaps made a Faustian bargain. In return for unrestrained use of the Earth’s resources, we may have mortgaged a long‐term future. Currently we are hoping to renegotiate the bargain, but there is detail in the small‐print‐clauses about climate change, destruction of ecosystems and consequent release of nutrients to waterways that we have ignored. Natural biomes determine that the biosphere is maintained in a state favourable to our particular biochemistry. Part of the mechanism is regulation of atmospheric gas composition through storage of carbon as biological deposits.2. Shallow lakes and wetlands, and the tundras and forests of wet soil, store carbon at a much greater rate than the global ocean. The influence, on shallow lake systems, of warming coupled with degrees of eutrophication has been studied in replicated experimental ponds. The first experiment used modest nutrient addition and a 3 °C rise in temperature. Such warming led to some increase in phosphorus availability, takeover by an introduced warm‐water species, Lagarosiphon major of the submerged plant community, and an increase in the frequency of severe deoxygenation, with occasional fish kills.3. The second experiment used a rise of 4 °C against a similar ambient background to that of the first experiment, but a nutrient environment much closer to that of lowland eutrophicated waters. Especially with moderate nitrogen loading, floating duckweeds became very abundant, though submerged plants persisted. Oxygen concentrations fell markedly. Final fish biomass fell by 60% on warming and 80% at the highest nutrient loading used, but the combination of warming and even modest nutrients brought oxygen frequently to zero overnight and killed all the fish. Because the fish used (Gasterosteus aculeatus) were extremely resilient, there are severe implications for many other European fish species.4. Analysis of oxygen curves allowed calculation of metabolic parameters of the tank systems. Both warming and nutrient addition substantially increased community respiration compared with photosynthesis. Extrapolation suggests that if this phenomenon is widespread, an increase of about 1.8 Gt over the 1990’s net annual atmospheric accumulation rate of 3.2 Gt might result. Since the IPCC models of future climate change do not include such biological feedbacks, they may thus seriously underestimate the future rise in temperature and its consequences.5. Thematic implications: we do not know if our Faustian bargain can be renegotiated; our political and social institutions are poorly equipped in knowledge and barely accept the importance of biosphere processes, and our scientific establishment is reductionist and conforms to the values of the rest of society. Current approaches to mitigation of climate change attend only to carbon release from human institutions, with little or no reference to natural systems. The future is exceptionally uncertain.

Current and future trends in juvenile wood density for coastal Douglas-fir

Increment cores from 10 full-sib families in each of three planting series were collected on 22 test sites per series (a total of 7063 samples across 63 sites). Juvenile wood density for individual test sites ranged from 0.378 to 0.481. Stepwise multiple linear regression analysis with wood density as the dependent variable and a battery of annual and monthly climate variables as independent variables was used to model the current distribution of wood density across the landscape in coastal British Columbia. Differences in the average temperature between the coldest month and the warmest month, precipitation in July, and the mean annual precipitation were the only significant variables predicting wood density, accounting for 47% of the total variation across all sites. Using two future climate change models (CGCM2 A2x and HADCM3 A2x) to predict changes in the three climate variables, wood density was mapped. Wood density will be reduced generally in the present range of coastal Douglas-fir ( Pseudotsuga menziesii (Mirb.) Franco var. menziesii ), especially on southern Vancouver Island and along the coastlines of southern British Columbia. This may have implications for the future utility of Douglas-fir as a structural wood species, as well as for breeding and deployment.

The value of indigenous knowledge in climate change mitigation and adaptation strategies in the African Sahel

Past global efforts at dealing with the problem of global warming concentrated on mitigation, with the aim of reducing and possibly stabilizing greenhouse gas (GHG) concentrations in the atmosphere. With the slow progress in achieving this, adaptation was viewed as a viable option to reduce the vulnerability to the anticipated negative impacts of global warming. It is increasingly realized that mitigation and adaptation should not be pursued independent of each other but as complements. This has resulted in the recent calls for the integration of adaptation into mitigation strategies. However, integrating mitigation and adaptation into climate change concerns is not a completely new idea in the African Sahel. The region is characterized by severe and frequent droughts with records dating back into centuries. The local populations in this region, through their indigenous knowledge systems, have developed and implemented extensive mitigation and adaptation strategies that have enabled them reduce their vulnerability to past climate variability and change, which exceed those predicted by models of future climate change. However, this knowledge is rarely taken into consideration in the design and implementation of modern mitigation and adaptation strategies. This paper highlights some indigenous mitigation and adaptation strategies that have been practiced in the Sahel, and the benefits of integrating indigenous knowledge into formal climate change mitigation and adaptation strategies. Incorporating indigenous knowledge can add value to the development of sustainable climate change mitigation and adaptation strategies that are rich in local content, and planned in conjunction with local people.

Tipping Points in the Tundra

Environmental changes in the Arctic may be an early warning system for global climate change, and recent reports from the region are alarming. Several studies have indicated substantial declines in sea ice cover and earlier ice melting, which have led to the lowest level of sea ice in more than a century. And now there is evidence that the warming on the nearby continents may also be accelerating. In his Perspective, [Foley][1] discusses results reported in the same issue by [ Chapin et al. ][2] that suggest that reductions in highly reflective snow cover and expanding shrub and tree cover, both caused by recent warming in the Arctic, are amplifying the temperature changes in the region. Reduced snow cover and expanded shrubs and tress both act to absorb additional solar radiation (compared to highly reflective snow fields), warming the surface and the atmosphere above. Chapin et al. provide the best empirical evidence for this climate feedback mechanism to date; these results need to be more fully incorporated into models of future climate change. [1]: http://www.sciencemag.org/cgi/content/full/310/5748/627 [2]: http://www.sciencemag.org/cgi/content/short/310/5748/657