Abstract
Research has shown species undergoing range contractions and/or northward and higher elevational movements as a result of changing climates. Here, we evaluate how the distribution of a group of cold‐adapted plant species with similar evolutionary histories changes in response to warming climates. We selected 29 species of Micranthes (Saxifragaceae) representing the mountain and Arctic biomes of the Northern Hemisphere. For this analysis, 24,755 data points were input into ecological niche models to assess both present fundamental niches and predicted future ranges under climate change scenarios. Comparisons were made across the Northern Hemisphere between all cold‐adapted Micranthes, including Arctic species, montane species, and species defined as narrow endemics. Under future climate change models, 72% of the species would occupy smaller geographical areas than at present. This loss of habitat is most pronounced in Arctic species in general, but is also prevalent in species restricted to higher elevations in mountains. Additionally, narrowly endemic species restricted to high elevations were more susceptible to habitat loss than those species found at lower elevations. Using a large dataset and modeling habitat suitability at a global scale, our results empirically model the threats to cold‐adapted species as a result of warming climates. Although Arctic and alpine biomes share many underlying climate similarities, such as cold and short growing seasons, our results confirm that species in these climates have varied responses to climate change and that key abiotic variables differ between these two habitats.
Highlights
Many cold-adapted species are expected to suffer range contractions as a result of climate change during the several decades (Alsos et al, 2012; Parmesan, 2006; Thuiller, Lavorel, Araujo, Sykes, & Prentice, 2005)
Is the amount of suitable area for Arctic and montane plants predicted to change as a result of climate change, and, if so, what is driving these changes? Second, what are the differences in potential or predicted responses to climate change between mountain and Arctic species? Third, what variables affect habitat loss for narrow endemics in these regions? We examine these questions in an evolutionary context, and by investigating within the Micranthes clade, rather than between clades, we take into account that many of the factors influencing adaptation and dispersal are likely to share an evolutionary history
There were several steps in this process. (a) The output from MaxEnt for all species was divided into the four datasets composed of different subgroups of species. (b) For each group, we reduced the multivariate dataset to uncorrelated sets of variables using principal component analysis (PCA) based on the correlation matrices
Summary
Many cold-adapted species are expected to suffer range contractions as a result of climate change during the several decades (Alsos et al, 2012; Parmesan, 2006; Thuiller, Lavorel, Araujo, Sykes, & Prentice, 2005). | 7165 that both have a short growing season and low mean annual temperatures; they provide natural systems for testing how species adapted to these conditions differ in climatic tolerances. Despite these similarities, there are pronounced differences in latitude and spatial distributions that in turn produce varied responses in species occupying these biomes. Due to the limited range of many of the high-elevation and high-latitude plants, species indicative of these ecosystems have the potential to act as indicators of climate change for these regions (Gignac, 2001). By comparing and contrasting Arctic and alpine ecosystems at a global scale, factors critical for the survival and adaptation of the flora in these areas may be revealed (Abeli, Vamosi, & Orsenigo, 2018)
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