Future Cash Flows Research Articles

Properties of accrual accounts in public sector entities: evidence from the Italian National Health Service

PurposeThis paper aims to contribute to the debate over the desirability of introducing an accrual-based accounting system in the public sector by examining whether accrual-based accounting information is superior to cash-based information in the context of public sector entities.Design/methodology/approachThis paper applies a quantitative research method to assess the degree of smoothness and relevance of the accrual components of income recorded by 302 entities of the Italian National Health Service (INHS) over the period 2014–2020.FindingsThe analysis reveals that net income is smoother than cash flows as a summary measure of economic results and that accounting for accruals improves the predictability of future cash flows. However, the authors' novel disaggregation of accrual accounts reveals that those accounts that contribute the most to making income smoother than cash flows – noncurrent assets and liabilities – are also those that contribute the least to predicting future cash flows.Originality/valueThe disaggregation of accrual accounts allows to identify the sources of the informational benefits of accrual accounting, and to document the existence of an informational “trade-off” between smoothness and relevance in the context of public sector entities.

ANALYSIS OF CASH FLOW CAPABILITY AND PROFITS FOR BANKING SUSTAINABILITY

Financial reports play a crucial role in enhancing cash flow and profits. The focus of the issue in this study is related to cash flow and profits. The objective of this research is to assess the impact of the analysis of cash flow and profit capabilities in the banking context, by conducting a study at PT. Bank BPD Bali Singaraja Branch. This research employs various analytical techniques, including validity and reliability tests, multiple linear regression analysis, classic assumption tests, multiple correlation analyses, determination analyses, T-Test, and F-Test, with the aim of predicting cash flow. The research findings indicate that both cash flow and profits have a significant influence on future cash flow at PT. BPD Bali Singaraja Branch. These results are reinforced by hypothesis testing using the T-Test, where each t-value > t-table (3.007 > 1.667) for cash flow and (2.079 > 1.667) for profits, confirming the acceptance of both hypotheses. Partial correlation values show a moderate relationship (0.453) between cash flow (X1) and the dependent variable (Y), as well as a strong relationship (0.360) between profits (X2) and the dependent variable (Y). The impact of independent variables on dependent variables is indicated by a determination value of 27.5% and a correlation value of 0.525, demonstrating a low positive correlation between the two. The conclusion drawn from this research is that both cash flow and profits positively influence future cash flow at PT. Bank BPD Bali Singaraja Branch. The F-Test indicates that the F-value > F-table (8.543 > 3.19), indicating that cash flow and profits together have an impact on future cash flow in the bank.

Do contingent liabilities affect dividend decisions?

PurposeThe paper examines contingent liabilities' effect on the firm's dividend decisions.Design/methodology/approachFixed-effects regression and logit model results estimate the influence of contingent liabilities on firms' dividend decisions using a sample of 2,288 firm-year observations of S&P 500 firms from 2012 until 2022. Robustness checks and results from the 2SLS model further support the authors’ findings.FindingsThe results show that contingent liabilities negatively affect dividend payment decisions. This analysis further demonstrates that the stated effect of contingent liabilities on dividend decisions is more substantial for firms with financing deficits and those with above-industry-average corporate governance scores.Research limitations/implicationsThere needs to be more systematic conceptual reason for measuring uncertainty for firms and its influence on dividend decisions. Future research should use other measures of firm uncertainty to examine the relation of the firm's uncertainty with dividend decisions.Practical implicationsThe authors suggest that contingent liabilities create uncertainty for future cash flows, influence a firm's agency costs and provide credible signals on a firm's prospects to the market. The findings support existing literature that measurable firm-specific variables significantly influence a firm's dividend decisions. The results are robust for an alternative explanation.Originality/valueBy investigating the impact of the influence of contingent liabilities on dividends, the authors extend research on dividend decisions and attempt to provide insights into a firm's dividend decisions by incorporating an off-the-balance sheet item (contingent liabilities) as a significant predictor for dividend decisions.

The Influence of Investor Sentiment on Scale Effect of the A-Share Market: An Empirical Analysis of Principal Components

Scale effect in the stock market refers to the negative correlation between company size and expected return, which is a common anomaly in the financial market. Investor sentiment is the opinion that investors create based on their expectations of the potential future cash flow from their assets and the inherent dangers of making investments. The initial goals of this paper were to develop an investor sentiment index system and investigate how it relates to the market scale impact. In this paper, principal component analysis and the CICSI index, which can better measure Chinese investor sentiment, are combined to construct investors More than 3000 sample stocks are grouped by size, the average return rate of each group is calculated, and the scale effect is tested. Through the verification of the scale effect under the optimistic, neutral, and pessimistic sentiment index, the applicability of generated sentiment index to the scale effect is confirmed.

Application of DCF Model in Enterprise Valuation

The home appliances industry is an important manufacturing industry that reflects the consumption level of Chinese residents. Midea Group is the leading enterprise in the household appliances industry and one of the enterprises with high brand value in China. For Midea Group in the home appliance industry, this paper will apply the DCF model for enterprise valuation. This paper mainly uses the financial information of Midea Group and the discounted cash flow model for enterprise valuation. Then, the advantages and disadvantages of the DCF valuation model are analyzed through practical cases, and the overall valuation process is summarized. The company value of Media that valued by the DCF model is 384,922.89 million RMB. The analysis results show that the DCF model can better reflect the status quo of enterprise value, but in the process of DCF valuation model, it is not easy to predict the accurate amount of future cash flow. It also has limitations in industry and product selection, and its estimation of the risk rate is not accurate enough.

CFO overconfidence and conditional accounting conservatism

This study investigates the association between Chief Financial Officers (CFOs) overconfidence and conditional accounting conservatism. Relying on upper echelons and overconfidence theories and based on a large sample of US-listed firms’ data from 1992 to 2019 (21,626 firm-year observations), we find a statistically and economically significant negative relationship between CFO overconfidence and conditional accounting conservatism, suggesting that overconfident CFOs tend to diminish conditional accounting conservatism. These findings persist in a series of robustness tests. In the mechanism analysis, we predict that overconfident CFOs aim to convey private information by reducing conditional accounting conservatism. We prove this conjecture by observing that overconfident CFOs who adopt lower levels of conditional accounting conservatism increase earnings informativeness (i.e., the amount of information about future cash flows or earnings contained in current stock returns) and reduce their precautionary incentives to save cash. We further rule out another mechanism (i.e. compensation concerns) that may motivate overconfident CFOs to reduce conditional accounting conservatism. Moreover, we show that overconfident CFOs with higher powers are more able to minimize conditional accounting conservatism. Our study highlights the significance and motivation of overconfident CFOs in determining asymmetric recognition of good and bad news.

Does the market value the green credit performance of banks? Evidence from bank loan announcements

Despite the key role played by banks in shifting the global economy toward sustainable development, little is known about how the integration of environmental considerations into their lending decisions affects their market valuation. Using a sample of announcements of bank loans issued by Chinese listed banks and an event study methodology, this study examines how the market values the green credit performance of banks. We find that banks with superior green credit performance have significantly higher market valuation upon loan announcements. Cross-sectional analyses show that the positive effect of banks' green credit performance is more pronounced when banks are less exposed to political pressures. This positive effect is also stronger when borrowers have strong environmental and social (ES) performance, provide ES disclosures, operate in industries that are not heavily polluting, have high institutional ownership, and are controlled by private shareholders. Finally, our path analysis shows that green credit increases banks' market valuation by improving the prospect of future cash flows and reducing credit risk for banks. Overall, we document that green credit is a value-enhancing practice for banks in emerging markets such as China, where legal institutions and environmental regulations may not be as developed as in more advanced markets.

Research on Pricing Model of Chinese Convertible Bonds

This paper aims to create a new model for convertible bond pricing based on convertible bond rules and convertible bond strategies. And based on the concept of value investment, this paper analyzes and deduces various situations of convertible bonds by using future cash flow discount thinking. In addition, two new options that achieve the conditional call price and options that exceed the conditional call price are presented, and a more flexible formulation of the model for computing the price of convertible bonds is derived. However, this model requires the user to have some experience with convertible bonds. This might make a bit of sense for academic development and could help people better understand and participate in the convertible bond market.

Are earnings better than cash flows at predicting future cash flows? Evidence from apples-to-apples comparisons

Are earnings better than cash flows at predicting future cash flows? Evidence from apples-to-apples comparisons

Do Banks in Saudi Arabia Manage Earning Using Discretionary Components?

This study aimed to examine whether banks in Saudi Arabia used discretionary components for loan and investment portfolios in managing earnings as this study was conducted on all banks registered on Saudi Arabia Stock Market (TASI) for the period 2013-2022. The study also aimed to determine the impact of the discretionary component of the allocations for loan losses on both profitability metrics and market metrics. To achieve objectives of the study, two metrics were used as proxies for managing earnings. The first metric used both the discretionary components of the allocations for loan losses and the realized gains and losses of investment portfolio. The second metric used only the discretionary component of the allocations for loan losses of the credit portfolio. The study relied on the quantitative approach as the study used regression models and correlations to test the study’s hypotheses. The results of the first metric of earnings management indicated that the determinants of earnings management were financial leverage, total assets, net operating profit, GDP growth rate, while the capital adequacy ratio was not one of the determinants of earnings management. The results of the second metric of earnings management indicated that the discretionary component of the allocations for loan losses had positive impacts on return on assets, return on equity, earnings per share, share price and annual share returns. That is, investors realized that the allocations for loan losses contained a discretionary component that will be converted into future earnings and cash flows, and investors look at the discretionary component positively. According to the signal theory, Saudi banks used the allocations for loan losses to transmit positive signals about the levels of the profits in the future. The results of this study have significant implications on the decisions of investors, supervisory authorities, bank managers and external auditors.

Work from Home Suitability and Credit Risk Assessment

Employing firm-level work from home (WFH) suitability derived from the U.S. universe job postings, we investigate whether rating agencies and debt holders incorporate WFH suitability in their risk assessments. We document that firms with higher WFH suitability have higher credit ratings and lower costs of debt. Our results are robust to different fixed effect estimations, sampling methods, and controls. We identify two ways that WFH suitability translates into higher credit ratings: high WFH suitability is associated with lower future cash flow volatility and lower default risk. Overall, our study suggests that WFH suitability is an important determinant of credit risk assessments and that firms should see flexible work arrangements as an effective strategy in their crisis management planning.

Stock Analysis Based on Valuation Model Application-Taking APPL Company as an Example

This article mainly studies the application of value evaluation model in the securities market. At the same time, this article also applies the discounted free cash flow method (DCF) to the equity value evaluation of APPL. By constructing a financial forecasting model, the future free cash flow of the company is calculated, and then the equity value and per share value of the company are obtained on the basis of appropriate discount rate and growth rate. Finally, through comparison with the actual stock price, the investment value and risk of the company are analyzed. At the same time, by combining professional knowledge with value evaluation methods, researchers can make scientific, systematic, and comprehensive stock analysis to help them make correct investment decisions. This article mainly introduces the basic theory and application methods of value evaluation and provides a detailed analysis through examples. The empirical results show that using this method to value securities can provide more accurate and comprehensive valuation, which helps investors understand the value and risk of securities.

Case study: The Adjusted Valuation of the High-tech Newly-listed Company in Mainland China

Given the enormous contribution of high-tech startups to social development, a systematic approach to accurately evaluate these companies is significant for venture capital firms, equity investors, and other investors in the market. However, the conventional methods, including the cost and income approaches, cannot fulfill the valuation goal without any development due to the insufficient financial information and future uncertainty of these firms. This paper investigates a new valuation method that combines the beta coefficient adjustment and future cash flow scenario discussion. This newly established method is employed to value one of the most influential newly listed semiconductor firms: Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corporation in mainland China. If this new combination works well for firms under such circumstances, analytics could apply similar ideas to handle the lack of historical data and uncertainty of future cash flows.

Discussion on the Advantages and Disadvantages of the DCF Model in the Current Era and the Improvement of the Model

The discounted cash flow model is a company value evaluation method widely used by many domestic investors when investing company. However, under the background of the epidemic, due to factors like low benchmark interest rates that are not conducive to the valuation of the DCF model, the accuracy of the discounted cash flow model valuation has been questioned. In addition, the DCF model is not entirely applicable to the domestic market because of the multiple systems and the local capital market's imperfections, so the model needs to be improved. In this paper, the existing literature is summarized, and it was found that the time series analysis method can be used, which can predict the company's future cash flow more accurately, instead of the sales ratio analysis method, while the discount rate can be calculated more accurately by substituting each company's beta into the calculation instead of using the company's industry beta.

The influence of uncertainty on financial reporting behavior: The case of P&C insurers

AbstractWe examine how uncertainty about a firm's future cash flows influences the quality of its accounting information. As uncertainty increases, information asymmetry between managers and stakeholders will almost certainly increase, amplifying the potential influence of uncertainty. We focus on a specific setting where severe levels of uncertainty can influence financial reporting, the property‐casualty (P&C) insurance industry and use catastrophes as a shock to the level of uncertainty regarding P&C insurer's future cash flows. We use P&C firms’ claim loss estimation errors as a proxy for accounting information quality. Results suggest that, in times of heightened uncertainty, managers respond by increasing accounting information quality. Moreover, managerial claim loss forecasts are more accurate for publicly traded P&C firms relative to privately—or mutually—owned P&C firms as catastrophe exposure increases. Additionally, claim loss estimates are incrementally more accurate in times of heightened uncertainty for public P&C firms with higher institutional ownership or analyst following. These results corroborate the conjecture that managers’ decisions to provide more accurate forecasts in times of heightened uncertainty are attributable to an increased demand for better information by external stakeholders.

The Influence of Operating Cash Flow, Net Income, Depreciation Expenses, and Amortization Expenses on Cash Flow Forecasting at PT. Bank XYZ

The cash flow statement is part of a company's financial statements produced in an accounting period that shows the company's cash inflows and outflows. This study aims to analyze the effect of operating cash flow variables, net income, depreciation expense, and amortization expense on forecasting future cash flows. This research uses quantitative research using secondary data with a descriptive approach, which is analyzed using the Multiple Linear Regression method with SPSS assistance. The object used is PT. Bank XYZ for the period January 2019 to February 2023. The results show that operating cash flow affects forecasting future cash flows, net profit does not affect forecasting future cash flows, depreciation expense does not affect forecasting future cash flows, and amortization expense does not affect forecasting future cash flows. However, operating cash flow, net profit, depreciation expense, and amortization expense simultaneously affect the cash flow forecasting results. Based on the forecasting results, which have a MAPE value of 17.43%, it can be concluded that the forecasting results have good forecasting abilities.

Analisis Pelaporan Keuangan Segmentasi PT.Indofood Sukses Makmur Tbk

Financial reporting is one of the activities carried out by companies that have gone public, financial reporting can assist users in making decisions or policies to develop activities. Segment and interim financial statements are one of the reports that need to be disclosed in the company's financial statements. The purpose of segment and interim financial reports is to provide information about the different types of business activities and the economic environment in which the company operates. Fulfillment of this objective will help users of financial statements to better understand the company's performance and assess future cash flow prospects, as well as be able to make more informed judgments about the company as a whole. The purpose of this study is to analyze the determination of reporting segments using the ten percent test on revenue and profit and loss in the financial statements of PT.Indofood Sukses Makmur Tbk for 2018-2022 in accordance with PSAK number 5. The research method used is a qualitative research method, the sample used is a purposive sampling technique, which is a sampling technique with certain considerations. The sample taken comes from the Financial Statements of PT.Indofood Sukses Makmur Tbk segment which consists of 4 segments namely Branded Consumer Products, Bogasari, Agribusiness and Distribution. The research results show that the distribution segment does not need to be reported because it does not pass the 10% test on income for 5 years (2018-2022), the agribusiness segment and the distribution segment do not pass the 10% test on profit and loss in 2018 and 2019 but in 2020, 2021 ,2022 the agribusiness segment passed the 10% test on profit and loss, and the 10% test on distribution segment assets did not pass the test for 5 years (2018–2022). And the bogasari segment only in 2020 did not pass the 10% test on assets

The Ability of The Direct Method Operating Cash Flow Components in Predicting Future Cash Flows and Dividens (in Manufacturing Companies Listed on The Indonesia Stock Exchange in 2018-2021)

This research is associative research with a quantitative approach which aims to analyze the ability of the direct method operating cash flow components in predicting future cash flows and dividends in manufacturing companies listed on the Indonesia Stock Exchange in 2018-2021 period. The samples used in this study were 32 companies. Sampling used technique purposive sampling. The analytical method used is panel data regression. The data is tested using software Eviews 10. Operating cash flow proxied by cash inflows and cash outflows had a significant impact on predicting future cash flows in the first model study, as evidenced by partial testing with the t test. However, the second model study's findings demonstrate that operating cash flow, as proxied by cash inflows and cash outflows, has no significant impact on predicting future dividends.

Group-affiliations and corporate cash holdings: moderating role of political connectedness

PurposeThis study examines the effect of business group affiliations on corporate cash holdings and how political connectedness modifies the relationship between business group affiliations and corporate cash holdings.Design/methodology/approachThe multiple ordinary least square regression with year dummies is used to estimate the effect of business groups on cash holdings. For moderating, the multiplicative term is used. The data from 252 non-financial firms listed on Pakistan Stock Exchange were collected for the analysis from 2010 to 2018.FindingsThe findings show that business group affiliations negatively affect corporate cash holdings, and political connection positively moderates this relationship. Business group firms that are politically connected hold less cash. The firm-specific factors such as leverage, size, cash flow, and dividend dummy also significantly affect corporate cash holdings.Practical implicationsThe results imply that affiliated companies have lessened financing frictions and improved stability in their expected future cash flows. Moreover, the results indicate that political connection minimizes the opportunity and agency costs linked to cash holdings.Originality/valueThis study contributes to the existing literature by examining the moderating role of political affiliations on the relationship between business groups and cash holdings in the emerging market.

Predicting stock market returns using aggregate credit risk

We investigate how credit risk predicts stock returns in the time-series at the aggregate level in the Chinese market. We find that the aggregate credit risk, measured by the option-based structural model, is a strong positive predictor of future stock market excess returns at various horizons. The predictive power remains significant even after controlling for a number of widely-researched predictors or under out-of-sample tests. The positive relationship between aggregate credit risk and expected stock market returns accords with the risk-return tradeoff theory. We also find that the predictive power comes from the discount rate channel. A higher level of aggregate credit risk is related to a higher discount rate of future cash flows, and thus generates higher expected returns.