Fundamental Changes Research Articles

Data-Centric Machine Learning in Nursing: A Concept Clarification.

The ubiquity of electronic health records and health information exchanges has generated abundant administrative and clinical healthcare data. The vastness of this rich dataset presents an opportunity for emerging technologies (eg, artificial intelligence and machine learning) to assist clinicians and healthcare administrators with decision-making, predictive analytics, and more. Multiple studies have cited various applications for artificial intelligence and machine learning in nursing. However, what is unknown in the nursing discipline is that while greater than 90% of machine-learning implementations use a model-centric strategy, a fundamental change is occurring. Because of the limitations of this approach, the industry is beginning to pivot toward data-centric artificial intelligence. Nurses should be aware of the differences, including how each approach affects their engagement in designing human-intelligent-like technologies and their data usage, especially regarding electronic health records. Using the Norris Concept Clarification method, this article elucidates the data-centric machine learning concept for nursing. This is accomplished by (1) exploring the concept's origins in the data and computer science disciplines; (2) differentiating data- versus model-centric machine learning approaches, including introducing the machine-learning operation life cycle and process; and (3) explaining the advantages of the data-centric phenomenon, especially concerning nurses' engagement in technological design and proper data usage.

Dialektika Progresif; “One Dimensional Man”, Desublimasi Represif: Kritik Herbert Marcuse Atas Masyarakat Industri Modern

Marcuse’s main idea is that technology and mass consumption have created a social order that makes people "one-dimensional human," losing the ability to think critically and see social alternatives. Marcuse argued that a fundamental change in society was needed to allow the liberation of individuals from the pressures and constraints generated by the capitalist system. The purpose of this paper is to critically explore the dialectic of Herbert Marcuse's approach to the "one-dimensional man" and repressive desublimation. This research method uses a qualitative approach with a critical approach to the study of Herbert Marcuse's thought. The concepts of "repressive sublimation" and "administrated" describe the way modern society directs its natural human impulses into a form regulated and controlled by social and political authorities. Repressive sublimation results in the suppression of self-expression and creativity, while administrated refers to the dominance of bureaucracy and technocracy in managing society. This results in unfreedom and homogenization in society. This study contains Marcuse's biography, looking at the content of his works, contributions to knowledge and communication, and the relevance of Herbert Marcuse's critical thinking to the current context. One Dimensional Man; is used as a spectacular work a narrative created to criticize the irrational and oppressive grand narrative of capitalism with an exploitative power structure through the affirmative dimension, for which Marcuse suggests rebuilding the dimension of negation; Where society again has critical power and is no longer in a state of silence.

Values on the horizon: Did the loss of innocence of conflict of laws change the relationship to the foreign?

AbstractWhile the complexity of the methodological and legislative-technical apparatus of conflict of laws has, in the eyes of its critics, created an aura of impermeability, they are, in fact, instruments through which a relationship to the foreign is conveyed and articulated. However, conflict of laws is not an immutable system of rules but rather a technique that undergoes varying degrees of development depending on the changing premises on which it is built. These are notably defined by different approaches to the values that frame the conflicts resolution. Depending on these values, the available instruments of conflict of laws are used to achieve different objectives. This results not only in a confluence of different methods but also in changes within a particular method. Against the backdrop of the value transformations of conflict of laws, this paper seeks to demonstrate that the abandonment of methodological purism of conflict of laws necessarily entails the abandonment of relational purism towards the foreign. By contrast, insofar as transformations within the dominant multilateral method are concerned, it is argued that the changes in value orientation have not led to a fundamental change in the nature of the relationship to the foreign.

Applying complex adaptive systems research results to combat simulations of the generation-after-next

Combat has seen fundamental changes over the past century—with new domains of warfighting (e.g., cyber, space); the introduction of nuclear and precision weapons; ubiquitous, all source intelligence; mixes of national, coalition, and private forces operating; and numerous other examples. Over this same period, combat simulations, and the attendant training, experimentation, and analyses they support, have increased in scale, scope, and resolution. But with respect to their fundamental effectiveness, have they substantively moved beyond the foundation created by Lanchester in the early 20th century? Differential equations of mean field approximations have been complemented by discrete-event simulations at many scales; however, the underlying conceptual framework of force-on-force conflict and tightly constrained, potentially fragile, service-specific command and control remains. In this position paper, we argue that new conceptualizations, better aligned with the modern warfighting landscape, are needed across all applications of military modeling. We examine the potential role of complex adaptive systems in this endeavor.

Some lithogeochemical and isotope-geochemical features of clay rocks and hiatuses in the Riphean stratotype

Research subject. Clay rocks of the Lower, Middle, and Upper Riphean (respectively, the Burzyan, Yurmatau, and Karatau groups) of the Western slope of the Southern Urals. Changes in their characteristic values of a number of ratios of oxides and some trace elements that are indicators of rock composition in provenances are considered, taking into account the breaks of different duration present in the Riphean stratotype. Methods. Calculation of t he average values of TiO2/Al2O3, Th/Sc, La/Co and (La/Yb)N, typical for shales, fine-grained clay siltstones, and mudstones of the main lithostratigraphic units of the Riphean stratotype (formation and, in some cases, subformation) and analysis of their changes taking into account the hiatuses known in the Riphean stratotype (Pre-Mashak/Pre-Zigalga, Pre- Zilmerdak, Pre-Minyar, Pred-Uk). Results. It was established that throughout the entire Riphean, regardless of breaks in sedimentation, presumably associated with certain transformations in the areas of erosion and sedimentation, a number of lithogeochemical characteristics of fine-grained clastic rocks of the Burzyan, Yurmatau, and Karatau groups (such as TiO2/Al2O3, Th/Sc, La/Co, and, to a significant extent, (La/Yb)N) practically did not experience significant changes. Conclusions. The data obtained give reason to think that there were no fundamental changes in the composition of the sources of fine-grained aluminosiliciclastics for the Riphean sedimentary sequences for more than 1 Ga, and contradict the rather active scenario of tectonic processes at the end of the Early Precambrian and the entire Late Precambrian. Conversely, the data on the values of tNd(DM) and eNd(t) in 37 samples of clay rocks of the Riphean stratotype nevertheless reflect a change in the composition of the rocks of the feeding provinces and, one way or another, fit into the outline of subglobal events established by conventional geological methods in the stratotype area of the Riphean. In accordance with them, in the Ai and Mashak times, an increase in the proportion of juvenile material took place in the areas of erosion. Apparently, the Pre-Zilmerdak hiatus also led to the appearance of a significant proportion of basic igneous rocks among the rocks of the provenances.

Impact of the armed conflict in Ukraine on rail freight between Asia and Europe

In 2021, the rail freight industry proved its competitiveness despite the restrictions caused by the coronavirus pandemic. In the segment of rail freight transport between Asia and Europe, this was achieved by positive transport results. Container transport in international rail traffic was increased. The railways carried out work on the development and organization of the transport of high-capacity containers in international traffic, including the organization of container block trains in the Eurasian space. The year 2022 has brought about fundamental changes in the perception of safety and the role of rail transport in traffic between Asia and Europe. An unexpected armed conflict caused chaos in trade, production and transport. In the corridors connecting Asia with Europe, problems arose, supply chains were disrupted. The geopolitical situation in Eastern Europe remains tense and unpredictable. This results in lasting consequences for production, supply and demand chains, transport corridors in the Eurasian space. This also applies to rail transport as part of the New Silk Road concept. The aim of this article is to provide a synthetic analysis of the impact of geopolitical changes and the armed conflict in Ukraine on the functioning of the Silk Railroad and transport volumes in rail freight traffic between Asia and Europe. The above analysis was carried out on the basis of research on secondary sources and available source materials obtained from OSJD member countries that participate in rail transport on the Silk Road.

Frontiers in Operations: Waiting Experience in Open-Shop Service Networks: Improvements via Flow Analytics and Automation

Problem definition: We study open-shop service networks where customers go through multiple services. We were motivated by a partnering health screening clinic, where customers are routed by a dispatcher and operational performance is measured at two levels: micro-level, via waits for individual services, and macro-level, via overall wait. Both measures reflect customer experience and could support its management. Our analysis revealed that waits were long and increased along the service process. Such long waits give rise to negative waiting experience and the increasing shape is detrimental as it is known to create perceived waits that are even longer. Our goal is hence to analyze strategies that shape and improve customers’ perceived experience. Methodology/results: Analytically, we use a stylized two-station open-shop network to show that prioritizing advanced customers, jointly with pooling (virtual) queues, can improve both macro- and micro-level performance. We validate these findings with a simulation model, calibrated with our clinic’s data. Practically, we find that an automated routing system (ARS), recently implemented in the clinic, had a negligible impact on overall wait—It simply redistributed waiting among wait-for-routing and wait-for-service. However, ARS renders applicable sophisticated priority and routing policies (that were infeasible under the manual routing practice), specifically the ones arising from the present research. Managerial implications: Our study amplifies performance benefits of accounting for individual customers’ system status in addition to station-level load information. We offer insights into the implementation of new technologies: Firms better plan for fundamental changes in their operation rather than harness new technology to their existing operation, which may be suboptimal due to past technical limitations. History: This paper has been accepted in the Manufacturing & Service Operations Management Frontiers in Operations Initiative. Funding: M. Chen acknowledges the support from the National Natural Science Foundation of China [Grant 72301280]. O. Baron acknowledges the support from the Natural Science and Engineering Research Council of Canada. J. Wang acknowledges the support from the City University of Hong Kong [Grant 11505421]. A. Mandelbaum is partially supported by the Israel Science Foundation [Grant 491/22]. Supplemental Material: The online appendices are available at https://doi.org/10.1287/msom.2022.0590 .

The spiritual essence of Chinese seascape art

The article "The Spiritual Essence of Chinese Seascape Art" explores the evolution and specifics of seascape in Chinese painting, in the context of the spiritual and cultural life of China. The genre of seascape in Chinese art began to form relatively late, at the end of the 20th century, and became significant for modern landscape painting. The article pays special attention to the rarity of the depiction of the sea and ocean in traditional Chinese painting, due to philosophical and aesthetic grounds. The changes in the perception of the sea element are analyzed, which reflect the fundamental transformations in the thinking of Chinese society. The research covers the historical period from the end of the XX century to the beginning of the XXI century, revealing the contribution of individual authors and the influence of Western art on the development of the genre. The presented analysis demonstrates how, through the study of marine painting, a unique combination of traditional Chinese and Western aesthetics is revealed, forming a new artistic language and approach to the perception of nature and the sea element. The article uses an integrated approach, including historical and comparative analysis, stylistic interpretation, to explore the evolution of the seascape in Chinese painting and its spiritual and philosophical and aesthetic content. The article explores the spiritual essence of Chinese seascape art, describing its development as a late phenomenon in comparison with Western art and as an important element in modern Chinese painting. Special attention is paid to rethinking traditional artistic methods and approaches to depicting the sea, considering it as evidence of fundamental changes in the spiritual life of Chinese society. The article discusses how the seascape reflects philosophical and aesthetic changes, especially in the last third of the 20th and early 21st centuries. The authors analyze the works of Chinese artists seeking to find unique artistic languages by integrating traditional and Western elements. The novelty of the research lies in a deep analysis of the impact of socio-cultural changes on the formation and development of the seascape in Chinese painting, which allows for a better understanding of the uniqueness and dynamics of this genre in the context of global artistic and cultural trends.

Strong daily routinisation, weak energy flexibility: a survey study of the stability and adaptability of everyday energy practices

Fundamental changes in everyday consumption patterns are required to mitigate negative environmental impacts, and these include adapting the timing of consumption. For example, flexible energy demand becomes increasingly important in response to larger shares of fluctuating energy production while dynamic electricity pricing suggests there is a need to encourage staggered electricity use. In this paper, we explore the stability, adjustability and flexibility of everyday practices to critically address the potential for flexible household energy demand. Based on a survey questionnaire (N=1,470), the paper takes its empirical focus in the Nordic welfare state Denmark, which has a high share of wind power and little focus on energy justice. Across household groups, it seems that morning routines are strongly routinised, especially on weekdays, and that variations in these primarily involve adjustment to other household members. The analysis indicates that there are differences across household types, for example, households with children and households whose inhabitants are aged 41-60 tend to be associated with stable evening routines, women tend to agree more to adjusting routines to lifestyle and household, while being in employment seems to be associated with stronger dependence on time schedules determined by factors outside the household. The study suggests that socio-temporal rhythms of everyday practices strongly depend on societal rhythms and practices outside the home. It follows therefore that expectations of energy flexibility in household energy demand should initially focus on common temporal patterns and dependence on these rather than on individual households’ (apparent) capacity to consume energy flexibly.

Black boys unchained: Removing the constraints of racial disparities in discipline at school.

The American Journal of Orthopsychiatry has contributed significantly to scholarly discourse on race and racism especially in its coverage of issues related to the development and well-being of Black boys (BB) and men. Although disparate rates of exclusionary discipline for BB have been widely recognized as a problem, efforts to reduce them have failed. Because exclusion has negative consequences and is ineffective in changing behavior, it should be used rarely or not at all. This article advocates strict limits or outright bans on exclusion up to Grade 6. For BB, the time between pre-K and middle school is a developmentally critical period in which, for a variety of reasons, misconduct is high compared to other groups of children. Instituting bans will require a fundamental change in how school discipline is conceived. Schools will need to reimagine BB and strengthen their social competencies and emotional resilience. This will require a shift in emphasis from punishment to empathy for BB who misbehave. Implementing policies to prohibit exclusion will be difficult in light of opposition from school staff who are reluctant to surrender this tool and disagreements over the role of schools and the responsibility of families for boy's misbehavior. Recommendations for alternative programs and expansion of mental health services have been made in guidance from the federal government and adopted into law by several states. To reduce disparities, schools must establish a culture of caring and support, enact well-reasoned and collaborative regimes of control, and provide BB with interpretive frameworks that convey a sense of purpose and meaning. Together these approaches can free BB from the constraints of harsh and unfair discipline and help them to become the best versions of themselves. (PsycInfo Database Record (c) 2024 APA, all rights reserved).

Comparing Two House-Price Booms

In this Economic Commentary, we compare characteristics of the 2000-2006 house-price boom that preceded the Great Recession to the house-price boom that began in 2020 during the COVID-19 pandemic. These two episodes of high house-price growth have important differences, including the behavior of rental rates, the dynamics of housing supply and demand, and the state of the mortgage market. The absence of changes in fundamentals during the 2000s is consistent with the literature emphasizing house-price beliefs during this prior episode. In contrast to during the 2000s boom, changes in fundamentals (including rent and demand growth) played a more dominant role in the 2020s house-price boom.

Proposal of Industry 5.0-Enabled Sustainability of Product–Service Systems and Its Quantitative Multi-Criteria Decision-Making Method

In the wake of Industry 4.0, the ubiquitous internet of things provides big data to potentially quantify the environmental footprint of green products. Further, as the concept of Industry 5.0 emphasizes, the increasing mass customization production makes the product configurations full of individuation and diversification. Driven by these fundamental changes, the design for sustainability of a high-mix low-volume product–service system faces the increasingly deep coupling of technology-driven product solutions and value-driven human-centric goals. The multi-criteria decision making of sustainability issues is prone to fall into the complex, contradictory, fragmented, and opaque flood of information. To this end, this work presents a data-driven quantitative method for the sustainability assessment of product–service systems by integrating analytic hierarchy process (AHP) and data envelopment analysis (DEA) methods to measure the sustainability of customized products and promote the Industry 5.0-enabled sustainable product–service system practice. This method translates the sustainability assessment into a multi-criteria decision-making problem, to find the solution that meets the most important criteria while minimizing trade-offs between conflicting criteria, such as individual preferences or needs and the life cycle sustainability of bespoke products. In the future, the presented method can extend to cover more concerns of Industry 5.0, such as digital-twin-driven recyclability and disassembly of customized products, and the overall sustainability and resilience of the supply chain.

Examining antibiotic use in Kenya: farmers’ knowledge and practices in addressing antibiotic resistance

BackgroundAntibiotics hold the promise of mitigating the spread of livestock diseases while enhancing productivity. However, there is global concerns surrounding the improper handling and administration of antibiotics, which has led to an alarming rise in antimicrobial resistance (AMR). Kenya is currently listed as an AMR hotspot. This study assesses farmers’ knowledge and practices on antibiotics in livestock production, knowledge on AMR as well as factors influencing farmers’ knowledge of antibiotic safety and resistance, and antibiotics use.MethodsA across-sectional, quantitative survey was employed with 319 farming households in five counties in Kenya. Multivariate regression analysis was used to identify explanatory factors.ResultsAbout 80% of households use antibiotics in their livestock, and 58% administer the antibiotics themselves. The vast majority of farmers buy antibiotics without a prescription. Antibiotics are used for both therapeutic and non-therapeutic purposes, the latter mainly in form of growth promoters and feed enhancers in poultry. The withdrawal periods reported by farmers are shorter than the officially recommended periods. Although the majority of farmers reported risky antibiotic practices, most (76%) were well aware of bacterial AMR. Nineteen of 21 knowledge statements on AMR and safe use of antibiotics were answered correctly by 55–89% of respondents, indicating considerable farmer knowledge on different aspects of antibiotics risk, while certain knowledge gaps remain. Number of livestock owned was the factor most positively influencing farmers’ knowledge on AMR and safe use.ConclusionKenya has made notable progress towards creating knowledge and awareness of farming communities on the risks and requirements associated with antibiotic use in livestock. Nonetheless, farmers’ antibiotics practices continue to constitute considerable risk of further AMR development. This shows that knowledge is not enough to ensure fundamental behavioral change. There needs to be an enabling environment driven by (1) effective policy interventions and enforcement to ensure compliance with set guidelines for antibiotic use; (2) research on and deployment of alternatives, such as probiotics, vaccinations and disease prevention measures, (3) continued public awareness raising and education using multiple channels to reach farmers and, (4) strengthened cross-sector, multi-stakeholder collaboration to address the multi-dimensional complexities of AMR.

External costs of electricity generation in 27 European countries from 2010-2030: Pathway toward sustainability or business as usual?

Electricity generation in Europe is undergoing a fundamental change. The aim is to increase sustainability by reducing emissions. Each country has a different electricity mix, and there is no established method for measuring environmental impacts of electricity production with a single monetary indicator, in a uniform manner, and with country-specific data. To address this gap, a model that measures the costs of 19 environmental externalities (usually, types of emissions) has been developed. Using country-specific technologies, electricity mixes, and external cost rates, the development of external costs of generating electricity in 27 European countries between 2010 and 2030 is assessed and analyzed. The simulation results show that the external costs vary heavily between 2.1 and 22.4 euro cents per kWh in this period. Despite the initiated transformation of the energy systems in many EU countries, external costs per kWh are decreasing in only eight of them. This fact underlines the need for a drastic change in national energy strategies. Overall, the results show that more far-reaching policy measures are needed in order to significantly reduce the external costs of the energy sector in Europe. The article raises the level of granularity of research on the external costs of electricity in Europe by combining extensive country-specific emission data and country-specific external cost rates.

From Closed Banking to Open Banking: Risks and Opportunities

Rapid digitalization and technological advances in the banking sector have moved away from the traditional closed banking model and brought open banking, which is a more open and innovative structure, to the agenda. This article examines the evolution of open banking in the financial sector and the risks and opportunities presented by this transformation. In the introduction part of the article, the purpose and importance of the research is emphasized by focusing on the transformation process in the banking sector and the definition of open banking. Within the scope of the research method, the current situation and future potential of open banking are evaluated by analyzing the data obtained through methods such as current literature review, source selection, surveys and interviews. One of the main sections of the article focuses on the key differences between closed banking and open banking models. The basic principles of closed banking operation and open banking are discussed in detail. This chapter sheds light on the fundamental changes in the industry by focusing on changes in technological infrastructure. Another important part of the research addresses the risks posed by open banking. Security and data privacy concerns, legal challenges, and competition and innovation risks are evaluated in detail in this section. On the other hand, the opportunities provided by open banking are also examined in a separate section. Issues such as improvements in customer experience, increase in financial product diversity and innovation opportunities highlight the positive changes in the sector. In the results and discussion section, the comparison of closed and open banking models, the future of open banking and expectations are evaluated. Additionally, suggestions are offered to reduce risks and evaluate opportunities. The solution section of the article addresses practical solutions such as security strategies in open banking applications, development of regulatory frameworks and training of bank employees. In the References section, basic sources on open banking, literature on transformation in the banking sector and current research on risk-opportunity analysis are presented as resources.

International financial subordination in the age of asset manager capitalism

The rise of asset managers as key nodes of financial intermediation has been one of the most fundamental changes in the global economy over recent years. An emerging literature on asset manager capitalism (AMC) discusses these changes and its implications, though largely in the context of corporate governance in advanced capitalist economies. This paper expands the remit of the AMC literature to spaces outside the global capitalist core, and assesses its implications, based on quantitative data on asset manager allocations and flows, and qualitative data from semi-structured interviews. We find that despite the growth of asset managers’ investments into emerging markets, their presence remains limited and that the threat of exit remains present but increasingly tied with global conditions and the composition of benchmark indices. We also find that asset managers’ investments are increasingly focussing on bonds, and are heavily concentrated in a few companies and sectors, revealing a marginal rather than broad-based presence. Finally, we find very limited evidence that asset managers use their voice to influence corporate governance and macroeconomic policy. Overall, asset managers do not seem to fundamentally reshape the characteristics of financial subordination of emerging markets, and the characteristics of AMCs remain, for now, specific to advanced economies.

Transcriptomic Analysis Reveals Intrinsic Abnormalities in Endometrial Polyps.

Endometrial polyps (EPs) are benign overgrowths of the endometrial tissue lining the uterus, often causing abnormal bleeding or infertility. This study analyzed gene expression differences between EPs and adjacent endometrial tissue to elucidate intrinsic abnormalities promoting pathological overgrowth. RNA sequencing of 12 pairs of EPs and the surrounding endometrial tissue from infertile women revealed 322 differentially expressed genes. Protein-protein interaction network analysis revealed significant alterations in specific signaling pathways, notably Wnt signaling and vascular smooth muscle regulation, suggesting these pathways play critical roles in the pathophysiology of EPs. Wnt-related genes DKK1 and DKKL1 were upregulated, while GPC3, GREM1, RSPO3, SFRP5, and WNT10B were downregulated. Relevant genes for vascular smooth muscle contraction were nearly all downregulated in EPs, including ACTA2, ACTG2, KCNMB1, KCNMB2, MYL9, PPP1R12B, and TAGLN. Overall, the results indicate fundamental gene expression changes promote EP formation through unrestrained growth signaling and vascular defects. The intrinsic signaling abnormalities likely contribute to clinical symptoms of abnormal uterine bleeding and infertility common in EP patients. This analysis provides molecular insights into abnormal endometrial overgrowth to guide improved diagnostic and therapeutic approaches for this troublesome women's health condition. Confirmation of expanded cohorts and further investigations into implicated regulatory relationships are warranted.

Dynamics of task preparation processes revealed by effect course analysis on response times and error rates

Cuing or executing a task impacts processing pathways for task-relevant information. While there is ample evidence that processing associated with task execution changes with practice, such evidence regarding cue-induced task preparation is scarce. Here we explored practice-related changes of processing pathways by task cuing in order to assess the plasticity of task preparation. We first developed and validated a new method for the study of practice-related changes, the effect course analysis. The effect course analysis is a model-free, non-parametric method designed to reveal effect changes within an experimental session on a continuous time scale. Then we applied this method to a new study in which cued task sets were supposed to remain activated during assessment of task-relevant pathways, as potential task execution was postponed at the end of the trial. The results showed that, with little practice, task cuing amplified task-relevant pathways, whereas this effect vanished with practice, suggesting that practice prompts fundamental changes of how task cues are used for task preparation. Hence, if one cannot be certain that cognitive processing is stationary, investigating the time course of experimental effects appears to be crucial to determine how cognitive processing is influenced by practice.

How Would Structural Change in Electricity and Hydrogen End Use Impact Low-Carbon Transition of an Energy System? A Case Study of China

Driven by global targets to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, energy systems are expected to undergo fundamental changes. In light of carbon neutrality policies, China is expected to significantly increase the proportion of hydrogen and electricity in its energy system in the future. Nevertheless, the future trajectory remains shrouded in uncertainty. To explore the potential ramifications of varying growth scenarios pertaining to hydrogen and electricity on the energy landscape, this study employs a meticulously designed bottom-up model. Through comprehensive scenario calculations, the research aims to unravel the implications of such expansions and provide a nuanced analysis of their effects on the energy system. Results show that with an increase in electrification rates, cumulative carbon dioxide emissions over a certain planning horizon could be reduced, at the price of increased unit reduction costs. By increasing the share of end-use electricity and hydrogen from 71% to 80% in 2060, the unit carbon reduction cost will rise by 17%. Increasing shares of hydrogen could shorten the carbon emission peak time by approximately five years, but it also brings an increase in peak shaving demand.

Time–frequency correlation and risk spillovers between Euramerican mature and Asian emerging crude oil futures markets

PurposeThis paper aims to empirically investigate time–frequency linkages between Euramerican mature and Asian emerging crude oil futures markets in terms of correlation and risk spillovers.Design/methodology/approachWith daily data, the authors first undertake the MODWT method to decompose yield series into four different timescales, and then use the R-Vine Copula-CoVaR to analyze correlation and risk spillovers between Euramerican mature and Asian emerging crude oil futures markets.FindingsThe empirical results are as follows: (a) short-term trading is the primary driver of price volatility in crude oil futures markets. (b) The crude oil futures markets exhibit certain regional aggregation characteristics, with the Indian crude oil futures market playing an important role in connecting Euramerican mature and Asian emerging crude oil futures markets. What’s more, Oman crude oil serves as a bridge to link Asian emerging crude oil futures markets. (c) There are significant tail correlations among different futures markets, making them susceptible to “same fall but different rise” scenarios. The volatility behavior of the Indian and Euramerican markets is highly correlated in extreme incidents. (d) Those markets exhibit asymmetric bidirectional risk spillovers. Specifically, the Euramerican mature crude oil futures markets demonstrate significant risk spillovers in the extreme short term, with a relatively larger spillover effect observed on the Indian crude oil futures market. Compared with India and Japan in Asian emerging crude oil futures markets, China's crude oil futures market places more emphasis on changes in market fundamentals and prefers to hold long-term positions rather than short-term technical factors.Originality/valueThe MODWT model is utilized to capture the multiscale coordinated motion characteristics of the data in the time–frequency perspective. What’s more, compared to traditional methods, the R-Vine Copula model exhibits greater flexibility and higher measurement accuracy, enabling it to more accurately capture correlation structures among multiple markets. The proposed methodology can provide evidence for whether crude oil futures markets exhibit integration characteristics and can deepen our understanding of connections among crude oil futures prices.