Function Of Departure Research Articles

A binomial N‐mixture model for estimating arrival and departure timing

AbstractThe timing of life cycle events has strong fitness consequences, suggesting that monitoring of arrival and departure timing may help understand spatial and population dynamics. Several existing models with inference to arrival and departure in unmarked populations are applicable to detection/non‐detection data which is a reduced information summary of the underlying population and phenological dynamics. These models also do not directly address the dependence of seasonal variation in availability (e.g. song rate) on arrival timing, often treating the seasonal distribution of availability as fixed across years despite allowing variation in arrival. Model development in an abundance framework has largely occurred in the context of stopover populations, rather than populations that exhibit some period of closure between arrival and departure phases.We developed an N‐mixture model that accommodates the dependence of seasonal availability on arrival timing, providing inference about abundance and both arrival and departure timing based on repeated count data. The model is applicable to populations in which there exists some period of closure between the arrival and departure phases. We developed two general formulations of the model, both of which include a model for the arrival process, but differ in the model for seasonal availability. The first formulation is applicable to cases in which seasonal availability is a function of cue production. The other is applicable to situations where seasonal availability is a function of departure of individuals or their transition to a state in which they remain unavailable for detection.We demonstrated through simulation that both versions provide unbiased and precise estimates of phenology and abundance and illustrated the cue production formulation using data collected in Denali National Park, Alaska for three passerine species.We expect that our inference framework will be broadly applicable in studies of unmarked populations where joint assessment of population, spatial and phenological dynamics is of interest.

Airline hub-and-spoke network design based on airport capacity envelope curve: A practical view

Abstract In this study, a new practical airline hub location model with hub capacity decision is presented based on airport capacity envelope functions. In the literature on hub location with the hub capacity decision, the capacity of hub nodes has been expressed as a constant. In real-life air network, airport capacity is expressed as some functions of arrival and departure of flights according to the functions of airport capacity envelope curve. Therefore, to make the mathematical models of Hub Location Problem (HLP) compatible with the reality, the hub capacity was considered as a function of arrival and departure of flights based on the hub capacity envelope curve. Also, this study is the first to consider the possibility of direct trip between two non-hub nodes together with hub capacity decision problem in a multiple allocation model. The presented model is solved exactly for some small-scale versions of Iranian airline network and compared to a hub capacity model with a constant capacity decision. The capacity of Iranian airports is calculated based on flight statistics reported in 2015. For each hub airport, three scenarios are considered to gain 30%, 60% and 90% airport capacity from the perspective of the airline. Also, to solve the proposed model at a large scale, an Adaptive Large Neighborhood Search (ALNS) with some new removal and insertion moves is proposed and applied to a large-scale version of Iranian airline network. The results showed that disregard for the airport capacity envelope curve can increase the airline operational costs and lead to the design of a non-optimal Hub and Spoke (HS) network. Accordingly, some recommendations based on the results are presented for this real network.

The perpetual state of emergency that sacrifices protected areas in a changing climate.

A modern challenge for conservation biology is to assess the consequences of policies that adhere to assumptions of stationarity (e.g., historic norms) in an era of global environmental change. Such policies may result in unexpected and surprising levels of mitigation given future climate-change trajectories, especially as agriculture looks to protected areas to buffer against production losses during periods of environmental extremes. We assessed the potential impact of climate-change scenarios on the rates at which grasslands enrolled in the Conservation Reserve Program (CRP) are authorized for emergency harvesting (i.e., biomass removal) for agricultural use, which can occur when precipitation for the previous 4 months is below 40% of the normal or historical mean precipitation for that 4-month period. We developed and analyzed scenarios under the condition that policy will continue to operate under assumptions of stationarity, thereby authorizing emergency biomass harvesting solely as a function of precipitation departure from historic norms. Model projections showed the historical likelihood of authorizing emergency biomass harvesting in any given year in the northern Great Plains was 33.28% based on long-term weather records. Emergency biomass harvesting became the norm (>50% of years) in the scenario that reflected continued increases in emissions and a decrease in growing-season precipitation, and areas in the Great Plains with higher historical mean annual rainfall were disproportionately affected and were subject to a greater increase in emergency biomass removal. Emergency biomass harvesting decreased only in the scenario with rapid reductions in emissions. Our scenario-impact analysis indicated that biomass from lands enrolled in the CRP would be used primarily as a buffer for agriculture in an era of climatic change unless policy guidelines are adapted or climate-change projections significantly depart from the current consensus.

Scenario modeling of a social emergency – a terrorist act

Relevance of the available threats of emergency situations of social character – acts of terrorism is defined. Scenario modeling of terrorist attack is carried out. The scientific base of a research of the medical and evacuation characteristic struck at mine and explosive and fire lesions is defined. The analysis of normative legal documents of the Russian Federation the defining place and a role of federal executive authorities in national security issues – counteraction to terrorism is submitted. The role of the Armed forces of the Russian Federation in counteraction to terrorism is defined and unique experience of activity of its health service is analyzed. It is shown that unique experience of health service is based not only as a result of medical support of troops (forces) and the population at elimination of medical and sanitary consequences of acts of terrorism and counter-terrorist operations, but also when carrying out peacekeeping operations and operations on fight against the international terrorism, and also at mitigation of consequences of emergency situations on explosive objects. It is defined that the most probable scenario of terrorist attack is, so-called, «The Parisian and (or) Izmir scenario». Studying of the medical and evacuation characteristic of sanitary losses as a result of scenario model of act of terrorism was based on standard results of influence of explosives with formation of gunshot and mine and explosive wounds. Scientific search is run and the task of determination of the most significant results on the movement struck to outcomes and duration of their treatment in medical military units (divisions) and the military-medical organizations with definition of characteristics of lesions was solved. As the instrument of definition of indicators of the medical and evacuation characteristic of wounded and patients, and also assessment of their influence the method of the medico-statistical analysis with use of the discriminant analysis and the analysis of survival with creation of linear discriminant functions and models of function of departure (extract) or Kaplan and Maier’s model served. The discriminant model with including of the factors which are significantly influencing the result of treatment with definition of the remote forecast struck at act of terrorism is developed and the model of duration of stay in medical military units (divisions) and the military-medical organizations is constructed. The received results of the medical and evacuation characteristic the struck and revealed factors which are significantly influencing an outcome and duration of their treatment are defined as basic of an object of the «model struck in emergency», basic for formation.

The evening commute with cars and transit: Duality results and user equilibrium for the combined morning and evening peaks

This paper extends Vickrey’s (1969) commute problem for commuters wishing to pass a bottleneck for both cars and transit that share finite road capacity. In addition to this more general framework considering two modes, the paper focuses on the evening rush, when commuters travel from work to home. Commuters choose which mode to use and when to travel in order to minimize the generalized cost of their own trips, including queueing delay and penalties for deviation from a preferred schedule of arrival and departure to and from work. The user equilibrium for the isolated morning and evening commutes are shown to be asymmetric because the schedule penalty in the morning is the difference between the departure and wished curves, and the schedule penalty in the evening is the difference between the arrival and wished curves. It is shown that the system optimum in the morning and evening peaks are symmetric because queueing delay is eliminated and the optimal arrival curves are the same as the departure curves.The paper then considers both the morning and evening peaks together for a single mode bottleneck (all cars) with identical travelers that share the same wished times. For a schedule penalty function of the morning departure and evening arrival times that is positive definite and has certain properties, a user equilibrium is shown to exist in which commuters travel in the same order in both peaks. The result is used to illustrate the user equilibrium for two cases: (i) commuters have decoupled schedule preferences in the morning and evening and (ii) commuters must work a fixed shift length but have flexibility when to start. Finally, a special case is considered with cars and transit: commuters have the same wished order in the morning and evening peaks. Commuters must use the same mode in both directions, and the complete user equilibrium solution reveals the number of commuters using cars and transit and the period in the middle of each rush when transit is used.

The Evening Commute with Cars and Transit: Duality Results and User Equilibrium for the Combined Morning and Evening Peaks

This paper extends Vickrey's (1969) commute problem for commuters wishing to pass a bottleneck for both cars and transit that share finite road capacity. In addition to this more general framework considering two modes, the paper focuses on the evening rush, when commuters travel from work to home. Commuters choose which mode to use and when to travel in order to minimize the generalized cost of their own trips, including queueing delay and penalties for deviation from a preferred schedule of arrival and departure to and from work. The user equilibrium for the isolated morning and evening commutes are shown to be asymmetric because the schedule penalty in the morning is the differ- ence between the departure and wished curves, and the schedule penalty in the evening is the difference between the arrival and wished curves. It is shown that the system optimum in the morning and evening peaks are symmetric because queueing delay is eliminated and the optimal arrival curves are the same as the departure curves.The paper then considers both the morning and evening peaks together for a single mode bottleneck (all cars) with identical travelers that share the same wished times. For a schedule penalty function of the morning departure and evening arrival times that is positive definite and has certain properties, a user equilibrium is shown to exist in which commuters travel in the same order in both peaks. The result is used to illustrate the user equilibrium for two cases: (i) commuters have decoupled schedule preferences in the morning and evening, and (ii) commuters must work a fixed shift length but have flexibility when to start. Finally, a special case is considered with cars and transit: commuters have the same wished order in the morning and evening peaks. Commuters must use the same mode in both directions, and the complete user equilibrium solution reveals the number of commuters using cars and transit and the period in the middle of each rush when transit is used.

Agrarian Capitalism and Poor Relief in England, 1500-1860

‘It is striking’, the author of this short and argumentative book tells us, ‘that a profound recasting of class relations, one that left most people bereft of property as well as control over their lives, occurred without inducing a protracted and violent revolution’ (p. 203). This profound recasting was England's transition from feudalism to agrarian capitalism—a longstanding cornerstone of Marxist history—and the explanation offered here for its peaceable nature is the unique social-welfare provision offered by the English Poor Laws. Indeed, rather than seeing welfare spending as inimical, or at least in fundamental opposition, to capitalism, the author sees it as a necessary precondition, smoothing the transition to the market economy by curbing the worst effects of the competitive society. The argument is based on the author's secondary reading and is heavily theoretical in approach, aiming to locate the development of English social policy within an avowedly Marxist framework, albeit one that draws as much inspiration from the work of Robert Brenner as from Marx himself. The book is unabashedly teleological, aiming to trace the ‘origins of the welfare state’, which developed out of the early modern English experience (the author argues, reasonably) more than that of nineteenth-century Germany. There is also a hint of present-centredness, with the final section incorporating a stinging critique of the welfare policies of the Clinton administration of the 1990s. Despite the anglocentrism of the title the scope is refreshingly broad, covering some five centuries and five different countries (England, Scotland, Ireland, France and Germany—especially Prussia), and the comparative dimension is prominent through much of the book. Thus, the author can see the precocious adoption of social-welfare programmes by the English state (most notably the Tudor Poor Laws) as a function of the country's early departure on the path to agrarian capitalism. By contrast, in Scotland, Ireland, France and Germany such developments had to wait until the nineteenth century, at which time these countries too began formulating national strategies for welfare provision. Access to land is seen as critical: in England a landless proletariat developed early on, whereas elsewhere a landholding peasantry survived until much later.

Effect of crosslink density on the pressure relaxation response of polycyanurate networks

AbstractThe effect of crosslink density on the pressure‐volume‐temperature (PVT) behavior and on the pressure relaxation response for two polycyanurate networks is investigated using a custom‐built pressurizable dilatometer. Isobaric cooling measurements were made to obtain the pressure‐dependent glass transition temperature (Tg). The pressure relaxation studies were carried out as a function of time after volume jumps at temperatures in the vicinity of the pressure‐dependent Tg, and the pressure relaxation curves obtained were shifted to construct master curves by time‐temperature superposition. The reduced pressure relaxation curves are found to be identical in shape and placement, independent of crosslink density, when Tg is used as the reference temperature. The horizontal shift factors used to create the master curves are plotted as a function of the temperature departure from Tg (T − Tg), and they agree well with their counterparts obtained from the shear response. Moreover, the retardation spectra are derived from bulk compliance and compared to those from the shear. The results, similar to our previous work on polystyrene, indicate that at short times, the bulk and shear responses have similar underlying molecular mechanisms; however, the long‐time mechanisms available to the shear response, which increase with decreasing crosslink density, are unavailable to the bulk response. © 2009 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. J Polym Sci Part B: Polym Phys 47: 2477–2486, 2009

The Probability Density Function of the Total Departure from Nucleate Boiling Ratio

AbstractImprovements in thermal margin analyses have, in recent years, been dominated by the use of statistical methods to combine the correlation uncertainty with other key uncertainties such as those in temperature, power, or the radial power factor. The methods of combination have included both root-sum-square and Monte Carlo. The latter method provides insight into the probability density function of the composite departure from nucleate boiling ratio, which, for a measured-to-predicted-normal correlation uncertainty and commonly used parameter uncertainties, proves to be skewed slightly upward from normal. In such a case, the assumption of normality is a conservative assumption in licensing analyses.

Bleached phase holograms exposed on Agfa-Gevaert 10E75 NAH plates

An experimental study has been made of the diffraction efficiency, scattering and stability against printout effect of bleached, photographically recorded two- beam interference gratings using Agfa-Gevaert 10E75 NAH plates. The efficiency is increased by using bleaching processes that convert the silver image into a dielectric image. Plots of the diffraction efficiency and scattering against exposure, and variation of the maximum diffraction efficiency as a function of departure from the Bragg angle, and exposure to white light, for various bleaching processes, are given. A maximum diffraction efficiency of approximately 54% has been achieved by using a potassium iodide and iodine bleach process.

Decisions about the axes of disoriented shapes.

Subjects were timed as they made decisions about the location of an asterisk placed to the left, right, top, or bottom of disoriented shapes, and their reaction times were plotted as a function of the angular departure of the shapes from the upright. In Experiment 1, the shapes were letters, and the functions suggested that the subjects generally mentally rotated some internal representation of each letter to the upright in order to decide whether the asterisk was to the left or the right, regardless of whether the letters were vertically symmetrical (A, T, U, V), horizontally symmetrical (B, C, D, E), or asymmetrical (F, G, R, L). For decisions about top and bottom, mental rotation rarely occurred, although there was some evidence for it in the case of horizontally symmetrical letters. Experiment 2 showed that mental rotation was not involved when subjects made one response if the asterisk was to the left or right, and another if it was at the top or bottom. In Experiment 3, the shapes were relatively unfamiliar architectural symbols, and in this case mental rotation was most strongly induced by those decisions requiring mirror-image discrimination, that is, left-right decisions for vertically symmetrical shapes and top-bottom decisions for horizontally symmetrical ones. Taken overall, the results suggest that there are two task ingredients that may induce mental rotation: One is the labeling of the left and right sides of a disoriented shape, and the other is the discrimination of mirror images.

Stoichiometry and Flameholder Effects on a One-Dimensional Flame

Abstract The steady one-dimensional isobaric combustion of a gaseous premixture of fuel and oxidant under a direct one-step irreversible Arrhenius-type exothermic chemical reaction is studied analytically for constant, but general, Lewis-Semenov number. Limit-process expansions are used to obtain solutions in the physically interesting limit of activation temperature large relative to the hot-boundary temperature. The eigenvalue or critical flow speed for an adiabatic system is established as a function of departure from stoichiometry. It is emphasized that, for relatively small departures from stoichiometry, the bimolecular system behaves as a monopropellant decomposition, to lowest order of approximation, because the richer reactant is effectively undepleted. The porous-disk-type flameholder for a flat-flame burner is modeled as a (nonadiabatic) heat source (supercritical flow speed) or heat sink (subcritical flow speed). The flame stand-off distance and the amount of departure of the hot-boundary tempe...

Theory of Io's effect on jupiter's decametric emissions

The effect of Io on Jupiter's decametric emissions is explained by a disturbance generated at Io, and coupled to streams of moderately relativistic electrons close to Jupiter which emit cyclotron radiation. The coupling occurs through whistler mode electromagnetic waves which interact with the electron streams by means of the gyroresonant interaction. Predicted distributions of emission probability and power are given as a function of Io's departure from superior geocentric conjunction and Io's magnetic longitude. A map of emission as a function of Io's departure from superior geocentric conjunction and Jupiter's longitude is given for frequencies greater than 30 MHz. The effect of Io on early source dynamic spectra is considered.

A Method of Band-Pass Amplifier Alignment

A method of alignment of band-pass amplifiers is discussed based on the oscilloscopic display of second order harmonic distortion as a function of the carrier frequency departure from the pass-band center. This method of alignment is thought particularly effective for band-pass amplifiers requiring high degree of linearity of transfer phase versus frequency function, such as for example, low-distortion FM intermediate frequency amplifiers.