A method is proposed for analyzing and evaluating the dynamics of self-decontamination of the region of the Fukushima-1 NPP contaminated by radioactive substances. The activity flux into the sea and average self-decontamination time of the territory due to decay and wash-off of the radionuclides 137 Cs and 134 Cs in the region of the NPP are obtained. The wash-off time constant of 137 Cs for the contaminated territory is determined from the experimental data. It is significantly greater than for the basins of the other rivers studied. This is due to the hydrological particularities of the rivers in Japan. It is shown that the maximum dose rate in the region of contamination will decrease to the background level in approximately 200 years. It is determined that the 137 Cs concentration in suspension does not depend on the water flow rate in the river; the 137 Cs flux is proportional to this flow rate, including in floods. Accidents at objects using nuclear power which are accompanied by the emission of radioactive substances, as a rule, lead to long-time contamination of the environment, which ultimately determines the radioactive effect on humans. In this connection, it is important to make a well-grounded quantitative prediction of the redistribution of radionuclides between different natural objects and the associated changes in the strength of the effect. The results of such a prediction for the region of radioactive contamination near the Fukushima-1 NPP are presented in this article. The prediction takes account of specific features, the main one being the intense wash-off of radionuclides by surface runoff from a river basin into the sea. The most complete data on the radioactive contamination of the region of the Fukushima-1 NPP are presented in [1], where the discharge into the atmosphere, deposition on the soil, density of the soil contamination by 137,134 Cs, 131 I, 129m Te, 110m Ag, 90 Sr, and 238‐240 Pu are indicated. For some of these isotopes, the depth distribution in the soil, the concentration in the water along the sea coast and the banks of the Abukuma River, flowing through the contaminated territory in the region of the NPP, as well as the bottom deposits in the sea and river are presented. Compared with the Chernobyl accident, the discharge and maximum density of the 137 Cs contamination were almost 10 times less, 22% of the 137 Cs discharged was on dry land, and the remainder was carried into the ocean [1]. The high level of radioactive contamination raises the question of the need to predict the reduction in the density of radioactive contamination and the total content of radioactive elements on this territory. The reduction in the radioactive contamination of the territory in time is due to decay and wash-off of the radionuclides by the surface run-off into the river and then into the sea. In [1, 2], the question of the need to solve such problems is raised, but steps to solving it are not mentioned. Methodological Basis of Prediction. A prediction of contamination can be based on a model of the transport of radionuclides in the river‐river-basin system as described in [3] by an equation for the density of the radioactive contamination of the basin σ = σ(y, t), which is a function of the time t and the coordinate y measured from the external boundary or a section of it:
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