Fuel Oil Prices Research Articles

Greenflation or Greensulation? The Case of Fuel Excise Taxes and Oil Price Pass-through

Greenflation or Greensulation? The Case of Fuel Excise Taxes and Oil Price Pass-through

Analysis of The Impact of Fuel Oil Price Increases on Fishermen's Income in Kendari City

The fisheries sector is essential to Indonesia's economy and food security but is faced with significant challenges, such as fluctuations in fuel oil (BBM) prices. This study analyzes the differences in fishermen's income in Petoaha Village, Nambo Sub District, Kendari City, before and after the fuel price increase in November 2022. This study uses a quantitative design with a descriptive approach to assess the economic impact of the fuel price increase on fishermen's income. The research was conducted from December 2022 to June 2023 and involved 55 respondents selected through a simple random sampling method. The variables studied include operational costs, revenue, and fishermen's income, with the application of a paired sample t-test as the primary analysis tool. The results showed significant changes in fishermen's cost structure and income after the fuel price increase. The average income of fishermen decreased by IDR 1,627,778 per month after the fuel price increase. Further details of the cost, revenue, and income analysis outlined in this study illustrate how fluctuating fuel costs change the economic dynamics of fishers, which is essential for policymakers and stakeholders in fisheries to understand and address.

Analisis Dampak Kenaikan BBM Terhadap Biaya Transportasi Perdagangan Internasional

The increase in the price of Fuel Oil (BBM) has significant implications for transportation costs in the context of international trade. This research aims to conduct a comprehensive analysis of the impact of BBM price hikes on transportation costs and their implications for the dynamics of global trade. The research methodology employed involves a qualitative approach to gain comprehensive insights. A literature review identifies the complex relationship between fluctuations in crude oil prices, BBM subsidy policies, and the transportation costs of international trade. Focusing on companies, this research explores perspectives and experiences from various stakeholders. Data analysis involves selecting samples from companies and fuel users with significant transportation costs exposure. Statistical data, including BBM prices, transportation costs, and trade volumes, are analyzed using descriptive statistical methods and regression analysis to identify relationships between variables. The research findings are expected to provide a profound understanding of the impact of BBM price increases on transportation costs and offer guidance for businesses and government policies. The implications of this analysis can assist in formulating effective adaptation strategies to address the challenges of fluctuating BBM prices, thereby enhancing a country's economic competitiveness in international trade. This research is anticipated to contribute to scholarly literature and provide practical insights for stakeholders involved in international trade.

Pengaruh Lembaga Pelatihan Kerja Terhadap Angka Pengangguran di Indonesia

Fuel oil (BBM) is a commodity whose price is determined by the state. It has been approximately 3 months since fuel oil prices experienced an increase due to the increasing burden of energy subsidies. This has had a significant impact on almost all Indonesian people, which has also been exacerbated by the impact after the pandemic. Based on this case, this article was written with the aim of providing more in-depth information regarding the impact of the swelling burden of energy subsidies which influenced the increase in fuel prices after the pandemic event due to Covid-19 in Indonesia. The literature review research method was used in this research by identifying and evaluating the results of research and ideas that had previously been produced by other researchers. The results of the research found that the increase in the subsidy burden had an effect on the increase in fuel oil (BBM) prices which then had an impact on the prices of goods and services which also increased following the increase in fuel oil (BBM) prices.

Dampak Pembengkakan Beban Subsidi Energi Terhadap Bahan Bakar Minyak Setelah Pandemi Bagi Masyarakat Indonesia

Fuel oil (BBM) is a commodity whose price is determined by the state. It has been approximately 3 months since fuel oil prices experienced an increase due to the increasing burden of energy subsidies. This has had a significant impact on almost all Indonesian people, which has also been exacerbated by the impact after the pandemic. Based on this case, this article was written with the aim of providing more in-depth information regarding the impact of the swelling burden of energy subsidies which influenced the increase in fuel prices after the pandemic event due to Covid-19 in Indonesia. The literature review research method was used in this research by identifying and evaluating the results of research and ideas that had previously been produced by other researchers. The results of the research found that the increase in the subsidy burden had an effect on the increase in fuel oil (BBM) prices which then had an impact on the prices of goods and services which also increased following the increase in fuel oil (BBM) prices.

동아시아 지역의 선박연료유 가격선도성 연구

This study analyzes the presence of price leadership of marine fuel oil market(Korea, Japan, Hong Kong, and Singapore) in the East Asia using cointegration test and vector error correction model (VECM) and examine to determine whether the prices of marine fuel oil are set based on international oil prices. As a result of the analysis, cointegration relationships exist among marine fuel oil prices in the East Asia. Results of a weak exogeneity test to examine long-run price leadership show that the marine fuel price of Singapore lead the prices among ports in East Asia in the long-run, and when Dubai international oil prices are included, Dubai oil price leads the prices of fuel oil markets in East Asia. Results of the Granger causality show that Korea-Japan and Japan-Hong Kong have a two-way causality, resulting in short-run price competition between them. When including the Dubai oil price, it was found that the Dubai oil price unilaterally affects the marine fuel prices of all ports in East Asia in the short-run.

The Impact of the Drastic Increase in Fuel Oil (Bbm) Prices

Fuel Oil (BBM) is a commodity that plays a vital role in all economic activities. The direct impact of this change in oil prices is a change in operating costs that results in the level of profit of direct investment activities occurring. In simple terms, the purpose of investing is to maximize prosperity through the maximization of profits, and investors always try to invest in efficient and safe investments. The increase in fuel prices not only increases the burden on small communities in general but also for the business world in particular. The surge in the price of Mintak Fuel (BBM) is considered to have a real effect on economic conditions in Indonesia. High oil prices turned out to be unfavorable to the economy of any country in Asia, including Indonesia. The increase in fuel prices in Indonesia is not only caused by the high increase in world oil prices, but also due to the domestic undersupply when compared to its demand. The amount of fuel subsidies such as in Indonesia, which can drain the state budget, is also considered as an excuse for the government to increase fuel prices in the country. The impact on various industrial sectors can lead to high production and operating costs. Moreover, of course, this increase in fuel prices will also have exponential implications for Indonesia's macroeconomic fundamentals.

The Policy to Increase the Price of Fuel Oil (BBM) in 2022 Becomes a Momentum in Encouraging the Use of Electric Vehicles in Indonesia

The policy to increase the price of fuel oil (BBM) in 2022 is due to world crude oil prices. This will certainly have an impact on the swelling of the fuel subsidy budget allocation to the public which originates from the state budget. but an increase in fuel prices can encourage people to switch to using vehicles with electrical energy sources because they are environmentally friendly and sustainable. This is an innovation in reducing the dominance of the use of fuel which contributes to various types of gases that are harmful to the environment.

Overview of engine-based power plants in Bangladesh

Engine based power plant in Bangladesh had significant growth over the last 12 years. In the year 2008, it was 231 MW but in year 2020, the capacity increased to 7,808 MW. An analytical and quantitative exploration was performed on the growth of engine-based power plants in the present work. Six variables like total generation capacity of different types of plants, electricity consumption, fuel oil price, GDP, population and growth in production of manufacturing industries (i.e. rate of industrialization) of Bangladesh were considered as main contributors on the growth. Regression analysis was performed to determine the relationship between the growth of engine-based power plants and the six chosen variables. It was found that except fuel oil price and population of Bangladesh, other four variables have a notable co-relationship with the growth of engine-based power plant in the country.

Bunker fuel, commodity prices and shipping market indices following the COVID-19 pandemic. A time-frequency analysis

This paper deals with the analysis of the evolution of international trade after COVID-19, examining commodity prices, the shipping industry, and the influence of the cost of bunker fuel. To this end, we use techniques based on fractional integration, fractional cointegration VAR (FCVAR) and wavelet analysis. Monthly data relating to heavy fuel oil prices and the shipping market from October 2011 to September 2021 are used. Using fractional integration in the post-break period, a lack of mean reversion is observed in all cases, which means that, for the commodity prices and shipping market indices, a change in trend will be permanent after COVID-19 unless strong measures are carried out by the authorities. Using wavelet analysis, we conclude that the demand shock represented in the indices mentioned above has led the price of fuel oil since the beginning of the pandemic, and bunker fuel is not relevant in determining the cost of maritime transport.

STRATEGI PENINGKATAN USAHA RUMAH TANGGA PERIKANAN HAND LINE DI NEGERI HUKURILA KECAMATAN LEITIMUR SELATAN

The potential resources on the coast and oceans must be managed wisely and wisely. Fishery households (RTP) are one of the fishery units that can manage fishery resources. The purpose of this study is to find out the internal and external factors of the RTP and formulate a strategy to increase the business of the RTP hand line in Hukurila Village. The method used in this study was descriptive with a sample of 10 RTP. The analysis uses descriptive analysis and SWOT. Identification of internal factors, namely the availability of fishery resources and increased catches but low human resources, no cold storage available and limited capital. External factors are access to resources, government assistance, market availability, availability of fishing grounds. The threats are the arrest season, lack of capital information, high fuel oil prices and the presence of social conflicts. The SWOT analysis formulates an increase in fishermen's capacity in the development of an increased fleet, optimization of marketing of capture production, and increasing fishermen's access to reach fishing grounds.

Determination of subsidy and emission control coverage under competition and cooperation of China-Europe Railway Express and liner shipping

Silk Road Economic Belt (SREB) and Maritime Silk Road (MSR) provide important avenues for cargo transport between China and Europe. This paper addresses the issues of the subsidy for China-Europe Railway Express (CERE) on the SREB and the sulfur emission control for liner shipping on the MSR from a perspective of building a community of shared future for mankind. Two welfare maximization models are proposed for determining the optimal subsidy and the optimal sulfur emission control coverage within which the sulfur in ships’ fuel oil is required to be less than 0.1%. One considers the competition between two transport modes (CERE and liner shipping), in which their own net profit is maximized. The other concerns the cooperation between two modes, in which their total net profit is maximized. The properties of the two models are analytically explored and compared. The results show that intermodal competition outperforms intermodal cooperation in terms of social welfare, consumer surplus, and environmental pollution, though at the cost of carrier profit and total subsidy from the regulator. The regulator may efficiently control the adverse impacts of an increase in the fuel oil price or in the marginal cost of air pollution on the social welfare of the system through adjusting the CERE subsidy and the sulfur emission control coverage.

How alternative energy competition shocks natural gas development in China: A novel time series analysis approach

As a significant pollutant emitter, China has used natural gas as a bridge to transition from fossil energy to renewable energy. However, as alternative energy sources for natural gas, oil and coal have hindered natural gas development. This paper proposed a novel method for examining the impact of alternation energy competition on natural gas consumption (NGC) based on wavelet spectrum transform and the Structural Vector autoregression model. Multi-time domain Granger causality test, cross-wavelet transform, and coherent wavelet transform are introduced to analyze the complicated and controversial relationship between oil prices, coal prices, natural gas prices, and NGC. First, the comprehensive transaction price index, namely LNG price, thermal coal price, coking coal price, gasoline price, diesel price, and fuel oil price, were used as the influence variables. Second, the raw data is processed by wavelet decomposition, and non-stationary series is decomposed into several detailed sequences and approximate sequences with different frequencies to extract data features. The results reveal that; (1) the high-scale correlation fluctuation exists between LNG price, thermal coal price, diesel price, coking coal price, and NGC in the different time domain, (2) the analysis results of diesel prices, thermal coal prices, and fuel oil prices indicate that the influences of energy competition on NGC are beyond doubt, (3) in short-term, coal prices have a more significant impact on natural gas prices than oil prices in China (4) the NGC is more susceptible to fluctuations of thermal coal price and diesel price. Overall, our findings provide noteworthy suggestions for the policymakers in making natural gas planning.

An Analysis of the Causes of Fluctuations in the Futures Price of Fuel Oil in China Using the VECM Model

Purpose - This paper analyze the causes of fluctuations in the futures price of fuel oil in China by dividing them into domestic and foreign factors. In particular, this study aims to compare and analyze the impact level of the world’s three major crude oil futures markets on China’s fuel oil futures market. Design/Methodology/Approach - This paper first identifies the long-term equilibrium relationship between Chinese fuel oil futures price and each influencing factor through Johansen’s cointegration test. It then analyzes the short-term relationship through the impulse response function and variance decomposition of prediction errors by setting up a VECM (Vector Error Correction Model) model. The variables used were China’s fuel oil futures price, crude oil imports, crude oil production, light oil production, WTI (West Texas Intermediate) crude oil futures price, Brent crude oil futures price and Dubai crude oil futures price. Data consisted of monthly statistical data from January 2006 to December 2019. Findings - Based on cointegration test resuts, it was found that there is a long-term equilibrium relationship among the variables. As a result of variance decomposition analysis of the impact response function and prediction error, it was found that the light oil production in domestic factor has the greatest effect on China’s fuel oil futures price. In terms of foreign factors, Dubai crude oil futures price has the greatest effect on China’s fuel oil futures price. Research Implications - China is seeking a stable import of energy resources through the systematization of the oil futures market, and furthermore, there seems to be an intention to enhance China’s influence in the international oil market. Like China, Korea mainly imports and consumes Middle Eastern crude oil, so these results will have certain implications for Korea.

Forecasting the Price of Fuel Oil: A STL-(ELM+ARIMA) Combination Approach

Focusing on fuel oil price forecasting, we propose a “decomposition-prediction-integration” route and STL-(ELM+ARIMA) combination forecasting model. This model decomposes the fuel oil price time series by STL, and effectively combines the advantages of high frequency seasonal cycle and short-term fluctuation time series forecasting in ELM non-parametric model with the advantages of low frequency trend forecasting in ARIMA parametric model. Finally, this paper conducts an empirical study on the spot price of Singapore’s Platts fuel oil 180CST to verify the effectiveness of the proposed forecasting method. The results show that the forecasting accuracy of 180 CST fuel oil price model based on STL-( ELM (1) + ARIMA (2) +ELM (3)) is highest.

Modeling Domestic Price Volatility for Cereal Crops in Ethiopia

The volatility in the domestic prices of maize and teff crops has been found to vary over time from month to month. Thus, Families of time series models namely, ARCH with their extensions to generalized ARCH, GARCH and EGARCH models with ARIMA mean equations were considered to the data. The best fitting model among each family of models was selected based on how well the model captures the variations in the data. The optimal lag specification for the models are accessed via AIC and SBIC. Comparisons of the symmetric and asymmetric selected models were carried out based on the significance of asymmetric term in the EGARCH model. Thus, statistically significance of asymmetric term and least forecast error from the model established that the EGARCH model with GED for residuals was superior to the GARCH model. Therefore, the ARIMA(2,0,3)-EGARCH(1,1) and ARIMA(0,0,3)-EGARCH(2,3) were chosen to be the best fitting models among the ARIMA(p, d, q)-GARCH(P, Q) family for monthly domestic price volatility of maize and teff crops, respectively. However, the volatility in the domestic price of wheat and barley was found to be not changing over time. Hence, the variance of the ARIMA process was used as the measure of volatility in the prices of these two crops which were 0.00112 and 0.0004, respectively. Moreover, it was found that from candidate exogenous variables, import prices for maize crop, fuel oil price, exchange rate (dollar-birr), inflation from non-food items, past shock and volatility on the domestic price had statistically significant effect on the current month domestic price volatility for maize and teff crops.

The Decarbonization of the Shipping Industry and the New Fuel Issue

The efforts of the international community to build the green ships of the future, and modify the present ones, by decarbonizing them, were described. These efforts depend on the joint effort of 7 major global enterprises: marine engine manufacturers, energy providers, marine fuel suppliers, shipyards, classification societies, ports and charterers. To date, 5 fuels have been suggested: LNG, biofuels, ammonia, methanol and hydrogen. Shipowners are happy using the heavy fuel oil (HFO), which they employed for the last 38 years. This was a result of efforts made by engine manufacturers and fuel providers (the seven major oil companies), due to the sudden increases in fuel oil prices in 1973 and 1979. Technology provided more efficient engines, and cheaper new fuel. In 2005, the IMO terminated shipowners’ happiness by adopting Annex VI of the MARPOL 1973/1978 International Convention. Shipowners seek now the new fuel to have the following six properties: 1) cheap (as HFO), 2) safe, 3) compatible with the (new) engines, 4) available, 5) of high energy density, and 6) produced in adequate quantities. They most probably will get new fuel, but in the meantime, they have to build dearer, dual-fuel-ready ships, which comply with NOx Tier III regulations. Twenty-five projects are described, which attempted to decarbonize the planet, and shipping. The concept of increasing returns is reintroduced. Environment will improve by itself, we believe, during 2022 and thereafter, due to COVID-19 and the present energy crisis. Nations need to resort to Renewable sources of Energy immediately, and in any event, by 2050. But will the energy crisis act as a brake on economic development?

Peramalan Penjualan Kendaraan Mobil Segmen B2B dengan Metode Regresi Linear Berganda, Jaringan Saraf Tiruan dan Jaringan Saraf Tiruan – Algoritma Genetika

This study aims to create an effective forecasting model in predicting sales of car products in the B2B segment (Business to Business) to obtain estimates of product sales in the future. This research uses multiple linear regression and artificial neural networks that are optimized by genetic algorithms. Forecasting factors for car sales are generally issued by total national car sales, the Consumer Price Index, the Consumer Confidence Index, the Inflation Rate, Gross Domestic Product (GDP), and Fuel Oil Price. The author has also gotten the factors that play a role in the sale of B2B segment by diverting the survey to 106 DMU (Decision Making Unit) who decide to purchase cars in their company. Then we evaluate the results of the questionnaire in training data and simulations on the Artificial Neural Network. Optimized Artificial Neural Networks with Genetic Algorithms can improve B2B segment car sales' accuracy when comparing error values in the ordinary Artificial Neural Network and Multiple Linear Regression.

Lifespan cost analysis of alternatives to global sulphur emission limit with uncertainties

Following the updated global sulphur emission cap from 1 January 2020, shipowners are facing an increasing cost burden to comply with the new regulation in a tough shipping market. This research compares the lifespan costs of three main alternatives, all of which can satisfy the 2020 global sulphur emission regulation. A lifespan cost analysis model is built considering several cost items across the three alternatives, including the initial cost of investment, maintenance cost and fuel consumption cost. Two vessels with a capacity of 5000 and 10,000 TEUs are selected as case study vessels. The @risk software is utilized to conduct an uncertainty analysis with respect to the fuel price and the discount rate to test the three alternatives in different circumstances. The results indicate that the larger the vessel, the lower the discount rate, and the greater the price of Mixed Fuel Oil (a mixture of Very Low Sulphur Oil and Marine Gas Oil), the more attractive the scrubber option. Quantitatively, if the refining technology of low-sulphur fuel improves in the future and the price differential between Mixed Fuel Oil and Heavy Sulphur Fuel Oil decreases to $29 per ton for the 5000 TEU vessel or $27 per ton for the 10,000 TEU vessel, the fuel-switch alternative will be as competitive as the use of a scrubber in terms of the lifespan cost. Additionally, as the discount rate increases, the cost gap between the use of a scrubber and the other two alternatives gradually decreases.

International crude oil price, regulation and asymmetric response of China's gasoline price

Since 2013, China has implemented a new retail price-cap regulation for refined oil together with a quota regulation for crude oil imports due to concerns about the negative impacts of oil price fluctuations. This study aims to explore for the first time the dynamics of China's gasoline price response to international oil market price fluctuations and the domestic price regulation. The analysis was conducted using the panel-asymmetric error correction model based on daily panel data of heterogeneous refiners. It is found that: (1) China's gasoline price exhibits an asymmetric response to the international crude oil price, with a strong, rapid response to crude oil price increases but a delayed and long-lasting response to decreases; (2) the price response to price regulation is symmetric at the industry level but asymmetric among different refiners, with state-owned refiners responding more to a regulated price increase, whereas private refiners respond more to a regulated price decrease; and (3) in the context of crude oil import regulation, China's gasoline price responds symmetrically to fuel oil price changes but asymmetrically to price regulation. This results in distortions in both the oil market and price response dynamics. It is therefore recommended that reforms should be enacted to relax the import quota policy and deregulate prices so as to correct these market distortions and accelerate the development of China's crude oil and refined products markets. • The response asymmetry of China’s gasoline price is explored by introducing trade & price regulation with daily panel data. • Asymmetric response of heterogeneous refiners to price regulation coexists with symmetric response at industry level. • China’s gasoline price responds symmetrically to fuel oil price and asymmetrically to retail price regulation.