Due to emissions of greenhouse gases caused by increased use of fossil fuels, the climate change has been detected and this phenomenon would affect even larger 2011년 7월 23일 접수 Received on July 23, 2011 / 2011년 8월 31일 수정 Revised on August 31, 2011 / 2011년 9월 14일 심사완료 Accepted on September 14, 2011 * 본 연구는 2010년도 정부(교육과학기술부)의 재원으로 한국연구재단(No. 2010-0029194)의 지원을 받아 수행되었음. 1 건국대학교 사회환경시스템공학과 Dept. of Civil and Env. System Eng, Konkuk University ※ 연락저자 E-mail : kimsj@konkuk.ac.kr 기후변화 시나리오를 이용한 미래의 강설량 예측 / 조형경.김샛별.정샛혁.신형진.김성준 189 changes in temperature and precipitation of South Korea. Especially, the increase of temperature by climate change can affect the amount and pattern of snowfall. Accordingly, we tried to predict future snowfall and the snowfall pattern changes by using the downscaled GCM (general circulation model) scenarios. Causes of snow varies greatly, but the information provided by GCM are maximum / minimum temperature, rainfall, solar radiation. In this study, the possibility of snow was focused on correlation between minimum temperatures and future precipitation. First, we collected the newest fresh snow depth offered by KMA (Korea meteorological administration), then we estimate the temperature of snow falling conditions. These estimated temperature conditions were distributed spatially and regionally by IDW (Inverse Distance Weight) interpolation. Finally, the distributed temperature conditions (or boundaries) were applied to GCM, and the future snowfall was predicted. The results showed a wide range of variation for each scenario. Our models predict that snowfall will decrease in the study region. This may be caused by global warming. Temperature rise caused by global warming highlights the effectiveness of these mechanisms that concerned with the temporal and spatial changes in snow, and would affect the spring water resources.