Tropical Storm Frequency Research Articles

Unveiling complementarities between mangrove restoration and global sustainable development goals

Indonesia, renowned as the most mangrove-rich nation, has committed to extensive mangrove restoration policies, but the effects of these policies have yet to be systematically evaluated. Our study conducts a comprehensive network analysis to investigate the synergies between mangrove restoration policy and global Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) achievements by exploring their interactions. This investigation follows the ‘product space’ method in economics and creates the ‘Mangrove-SDG space’ to assess each metric pair's co-occurrence and comparative advantages with validated stability. Our analysis unveils a tripartite structure, encompassing socio-economic and environmental clusters, each significantly contributing to global sustainability and a distinctive mangrove cluster tied to land attributes. At the Goal level, mangrove loss showcases robust synergies with SDGs 12 (Responsible Consumption and Production) and 13 (Climate Change), and mangrove metrics such as tropical storm frequency and mangrove change, indicating strong interdependences between mangrove forests and SDGs. The result indicates that improved performance of climate change and responsible consumption can greatly enhance mangrove forests' performance in alleviating mangrove loss and reducing tropical storms. Moreover, our analysis underscores the central roles played by ‘bridge’ Goals. Indicator-level space details how they warrant prioritization because of their cascade synergistic enhancements across widely interconnected indicators, triggering systematic positive improvements. Turning to Indonesia, we advocate a strategic shift from solely expanding mangrove extent to focusing on four critical policy priorities: effective nitrogen management, enhancing Ramsar site efficiency, optimizing logistic performance, and addressing urban population conditions. These priorities are pivotal to seeking complementarities between Indonesia's international sustainability commitment and fostering mangrove restoration success.

Characterizing Spatiotemporal Patterns of Disasters and Climates to Evaluate Hazards to Crop Production in Taiwan

Climate change causes frequent and severe disasters. A comprehensive assessment of disaster hazards is thus crucial to understanding variations in disaster patterns and planning mitigation and adaptation strategies. This study obtained information from a crop disaster dataset of Taiwan covering the period from 2003 to 2022. Additionally, principal component analysis and K-means clustering were used to create climate clusters to evaluate the effect of climate patterns on disaster hazards. The results revealed that tropical storm frequency substantially decreased, whereas rain disasters exhibited an increasing trend. The four regions of Taiwan exhibited variations in terms of hazards of various disasters. The cold wave hazard showed a significant upward trend in the central region. An upward trend of rain disaster hazards was only detected in the southern region. However, a downward trend in tropical storm hazards was detected across all regions. A distinct climate pattern was identified over the study period. After 2012, high temperature and dry climate were the primary climate patterns. These patterns exhibited a high hazard value for cold waves, droughts, and rain disasters. Hence, the present study’s findings indicate that managing cold waves and rain disasters is crucial to protecting crop production in Taiwan.

Hurricane Irma Linked to Coral Skeletal Density Shifts on the Florida Keys Reef Tract.

Coral reefs are at risk due to various global and local anthropogenic stressors that impact the health of reef ecosystems worldwide. The most recent climate models predict that climate change will increase the frequency and intensity of tropical storms. This increased storm occurrence and strength will likely compromise coral reef structures and habitats for reef-dwelling organisms, including across the Florida Keys Reef Tract (FKRT), the most extensive tropical reef system along the US coast. While several recent studies reveal the chronic impacts of tropical storms on corals, relatively little is known about the effects of major storm events on coral growth and how these effects vary over spatiotemporal scales. Here, I characterize the skeletal growth of two common Caribbean reef-building coral species, Siderastrea siderea and Pseudodiploria strigosa, before and after Hurricane Irma to investigate the storm's impact on coral skeletal growth on inner and outer reefs of the FKRT. Coral cores were extracted from both species at four inner and four outer reef sites in May 2015, before Hurricane Irma struck the Florida Keys in September 2017. Subsequently, 33 micro-cores were collected in May 2019, two years after the storm traversed our previously cored coral colonies. A three-way ANOVA model with storm, species, and reef location as the three factors was used to assess the impact of the storm on each of three growth parameters: skeletal density, linear extension, and calcification rates. Results reveal no difference in the coral annual skeletal growth parameters pre- and post-Hurricane Irma, although previously quantified differences in these growth parameters across species and location were observed. However, analysis of the "yearly" change in annual skeletal growth parameters showed significant differences in skeletal density across groups before and after Hurricane Irma, but not for linear extension and calcification rates. Our findings improve an understanding of the impacts of tropical storms on coral skeletal growth and offer new insights into how we can employ corals' innate growth capacities to help conserve coral reefs under climate change.

Crucial role of sea surface temperature warming patterns in near-term high-impact weather and climate projection

Recent studies indicate that virtually all global climate models (GCMs) have had difficulty simulating sea surface temperature (SST) trend patterns over the past four decades. GCMs produce enhanced warming in the eastern Equatorial Pacific (EPAC) and Southern Ocean (SO) warming, while observations show intensified warming in the Indo-Pacific Warm Pool (IPWP) and slight cooling in the eastern EPAC and SO. Using Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory’s latest higher resolution atmospheric model and coupled prediction system, we show the model biases in SST trend pattern have profound implications for near-term projections of high-impact storm statistics, including the frequency of atmospheric rivers (AR), tropical storms (TS) and mesoscale convection systems (MCS), as well as for hydrological and climate sensitivity. If the future SST warming pattern continues to resemble the observed pattern from the past few decades rather than the GCM simulated/predicted patterns, our results suggest (1) a drastically different future projection of high-impact storms and their associated hydroclimate changes, especially over the Western Hemisphere, (2) a stronger global hydrological sensitivity, and (3) substantially less global warming due to stronger negative feedback and lower climate sensitivity. The roles of SST trend patterns over the EPAC, IPWP, SO, and the North Atlantic tropical cyclone Main Development Region (AMDR) are isolated, quantified, and used to understand the simulated differences. Specifically, SST trend patterns in the EPAC and AMDR are crucial for modeled differences in AR and MCS frequency, while those in the IPWP and AMDR are essential for differences in TS frequency over the North Atlantic.

The influence of boreal summer intraseasonal oscillations on precipitation extremes and their characteristics in Southeast Asia

The regional characteristics of the boreal summer intraseasonal oscillations (BSISO) over southeast Asia are presented. The northeastward transition of the BSISO is characterised by 4 phases, such that convection is enhanced over the Philippines and Indochina in phase 1 and suppressed over Peninsular Malaysia, Borneo and Java. The opposite is true in phase 3. The role of BSISO in modulating extreme precipitation is highlighted, showcasing how its phases impact both the frequency and intensity of extreme precipitation events across the region. Using a method to detect and characterise precipitation features in terms of precipitating areas and their associated object properties, this study shows distinct shifts in precipitation regimes during different phases of the BSISO. Phase 1 exhibits increased large-scale convective activity, particularly affecting regions like the South China Sea and northern Philippines, linked to increased tropical storm frequency but reduced localised extreme precipitation events. In contrast, Phase 3, with active convection over Peninsular Malaysia, Borneo and Sumatra, shows intensified extreme precipitation from smaller to medium-sized areas. BSISO phases also modify the distribution of small and large precipitation objects over land, ocean, and coastal regions. This classification of precipitation regimes provides detailed insights into how the BSISO’s large-scale envelope modifies regional precipitation extremes through various precipitation properties. This information could benefit probabilistic predictions of regional extreme precipitation events at subseasonal time scales.

Giant mobile coralliths from the Florida Keys, USA

Coralliths are spherical, free-living (motile), scleractinian colonies inhabiting present day and ancient coral reefs. They form by the coral rolling on the seabed which can occur through biological and/or physical processes. While diving and snorkeling in nearshore environments in the upper Florida Keys, we observed hundreds of coralliths of varying sizes and species. This included colonies of Porites astreoides, Siderastrea radians, and Solenastrea bournoni. The largest coralliths we observed were all S. bournoni and ranged between 0.5 and 1.4 m in diameter. The exceptionally large colonies identified (>1 m) may be the largest and oldest spherical coralliths described to date. Relatively frequent movement of a corallith is key to their formation as all colony surfaces must be exposed to sunlight and currents periodically to maintain their spherical shape. Intuitively, the larger a corallith grows, the stronger the current energy must be to initiate movement. Considering the shallow depth of the corallith habitat and the high frequency of tropical storms and hurricanes impacting south Florida, we hypothesized that the forces generated by shoaling, breaking storm waves would be sufficient to cause the formation of these giant coralliths. Calculations based on hydrodynamic forces and field observations after the passage of a storm support the efficacy of storm-generated waves and surge to move and roll these giant coralliths. The tropical storm/hurricane return time where we found these large colonies in the Florida Keys is one in every seven years. This return time is apparently frequent enough to maintain their spherical morphology and assist in the formation of these giant coralliths.

Socio-environmental impacts caused by tropical cyclones Idai and Eloise in Sussundenga District, Mozambique

Mozambique is greatly endowed with a diverse potential of natural resources, most of which are still unexploited or in an exploration phase. However, the country faces major challenges to make better use of the resources to feed the population and reduce poverty. The country is prone to recurrent natural disasters, such as: flooding and cyclones (north) and droughts (south). Between 2019 to 2021, Sussundenga District was punctuated by two severe tropical cyclones – Idai and Eloise – leaving immeasurable destruction of unprecedented magnitude in its wake. Worth mention that cyclone Eloise hit the country when it was coping with the harmful effects of the Covid-19 pandemic. To date, there has been little research that has been conducted on socio-environmental impacts of cyclones in this region. Furthermore, climate change is projected to increase the frequency and intensity of tropical storms. Thus, this study has been designed as initial step towards filling that knowledge and evidence gap. The objective of this research was to investigate socio-environmental impacts caused by tropical cyclones in Sussundenga District. Preliminary, a desk-based study was made, followed by main data collection phase through in-depth interviews and participant observations. The results mapped which areas were the most affected within the district. It was observed that awareness of climate change is low in rural areas and women were more vulnerable to the effects of cyclones Idai and Eloise. Also, it was found that the lack of investment in climate change adaptation actions still pose a great challenge for the country.

Coastal Morphodynamics and Climate Change: A Review of Recent Advances

The shape of the coast and the processes that mold it change together as a complex system. There is constant feedback among the multiple components of the system, and when climate changes, all facets of the system change. Abrupt shifts to different states can also take place when certain tipping points are crossed. The coupling of rapid warming in the Arctic with melting sea ice is one example of positive feedback. Climate changes, particularly rising sea temperatures, are causing an increasing frequency of tropical storms and “compound events” such as storm surges combined with torrential rains. These events are superimposed on progressive rises in relative sea level and are anticipated to push many coastal morphodynamic systems to tipping points beyond which return to preexisting conditions is unlikely. Complex systems modeling results and long-term sets of observations from diverse cases help to anticipate future coastal threats. Innovative engineering solutions are needed to adapt to changes in coastal landscapes and environmental risks. New understandings of cascading climate-change-related physical, ecological, socioeconomic effects, and multi-faceted morphodynamic systems are continually contributing to the imperative search for resilience. Recent contributions, summarized here, are based on theory, observations, numerically modeled results, regional case studies, and global projections.

Transitional Mangrove Scrub North of La Paz and Magdalena Bay in Baja California, Mexico: A Historical Review

The location and topography of the 1,300 km Baja California peninsula west of the Sonoran Desert provide the most extreme conditions for mangrove forest growth in the Northern Hemisphere. Despite their small size, however, the dwarf shrub mangroves (<2 to 4 m) are important for global CO2 sequestration, and monitoring of their expansion or decline is needed as part of assessing global carbon fluxes and biodiversity. Mangrove distributions at 42 coastal sites in 1972/73 are compared to historical accounts and modern data. These data show that there has been almost no northward migration of Rhizophora mangle during the past century although Avicennia germinans and Laguncularia racemosa have spread north on the Gulf Coast. The dwarf mangrove plant biodiversity in 1972/73 is related to geoform, temperature (T) and seasonal precipitation (P), but mangrove species cluster by annual P and T. The present northernmost Baja California mangrove limits are at 26.79° N on the Pacific Coast, and at 29.04° N on the Gulf Coast mainland, close to limits recorded in 1921. However, there are notable (46 to 4,649 ha) increases in areal cover and canopy height at these northern sites, and in other areas remote from urbanization. Case histories for seven locations point to increasing frequency and severity of tropical storms as main drivers of change on both coasts. However, anthropogenic changes from tourism promotion are major hazards to survival of the Gulf Coast forests, despite international, governmental and public efforts to legislate nature preserves. On the Pacific Coast, rising seawater temperatures may create coastal current conditions that potentially allow the extension of red and white mangrove ranges into northwestern Baja California. However, hazards associated with ocean warming that promotes tropical storm frequency and intensity can have predominantly negative impacts on mangrove production. These extreme hazards counteract the benefits of local and regional protection and management efforts

The Cost of the increasing Tropical Storms: Examining the Long Run Economic Implications of Climate Change

Climate change has altered economics profoundly; it impacts major aspects of the global economy and has consequences that can be unforeseeable in the long run. Atmospheric temperatures have been increasing twice as fast since 1981 and it has caused detrimental impacts globally; one being the increase in the intensity and frequency of tropical storms. Humans have contributed about 95% to this warming of the Earth. This paper explores the long run economic impacts of a specific consequence of this pressing issue to further understand the impacts of individual actions. The warming of the Earth has caused an increase in the frequency of tropical storms as well as the intensity. Severe tropical storms destroy agriculture and demolish infrastructure and commercial buildings. This heavily impacts the economy in various ways, and this paper will focus on the impact of long run economic growth of an economy. To combat this issue, the government and central bank can take corrective actions. However, these actions come with their own economic consequences, and it is important to be aware of the outcomes to make an informed decision on critical issues. Through extensive research, it can be concluded that the best course of action is a united act amongst the central bank and the government to grow the economy while combating climate change.

Seasonality of phytoplankton biomass and composition on the Cape Canaveral shelf of Florida: Role of shifts in climate and coastal watershed influences

Seasonal patterns of phytoplankton biomass and composition in the inner continental shelf off Cape Canaveral on the east coast of Florida were examined for a 6-year period (2013–2019). In situ water samples were collected and analyzed for chlorophyll a, phytoplankton biomass and composition, along with water quality parameters. Regional satellite data on chlorophyll a, and temperature was also obtained from NASA. Average chlorophyll a values over the study period ranged from 0.63 ± 0.03 μg L−1 in the summer to 2.55 ± 0.10 μg L−1 in the fall. Phytoplankton community composition also showed seasonal differences, with persistent dominance by picoplanktonic cyanobacteria in the summer, but mixed dominance by picocyanobacteria and dinoflagellates in the fall. Seasonal differences were attributed to a shift in predominant seasonal wind directions, which drive water along the coast from the north in the fall and winter, but from the south in the spring and summer, including eddies and upwelling from the Gulf Stream. Water masses moving along the Florida coast from the north are influenced by nutrient and phytoplankton-enriched inputs from estuaries along the north coast of Florida, explaining the higher phytoplankton biomass levels on the Cape Canaveral shelf in the fall and winter. Seasonal patterns observed in this study demonstrate the importance of allochthonous influences on phytoplankton biomass and composition, and highlight the potential sensitivity of phytoplankton communities to continuing cultural eutrophication and future climate changes, including the frequency and intensity of tropical storms, and alterations in discharges from land.

Impact of Hurricane Harvey on the Upper Texas Coast: Using Airborne Lidar Data Sets with UAV-Derived Topographic Data to Monitor Change and Track Recovery

The frequency of hurricanes and tropical storms is increasing; for example, there were a record-breaking 31 named storms during the 2020 Atlantic hurricane season. Texas has historically been susceptible to hurricanes and tropical storms; however, Hurricane Harvey in 2017 was the highest category storm event to cross Texas since 2000. Our regional change analysis used 2016 and 2018 lidar-derived elevation models with 1 m spatial resolution to determine above-sea level changes due to Hurricane Harvey. The upper Texas coast experienced shoreline erosion, with local depositional events occurring on the southeastern sides of jetties and groins. Incidents of dune washout and overwash fans were present along the barrier islands of the upper Texas coast, as well as erosion to foredune complexes and a decrease in dune heights. As of March 2018, recovery is visible through berm buildup and backbeach aggradation. Our multiyear analysis (above sea level) of four sites within Galveston and Follett’s Islands determined the immediate impact of Harvey (2016–2017) and followed recovery until March 2019. The multiyear analysis determined that all four sites experienced varying levels of recovery by 2018. UAV surveys conducted in 2022 showed potential in acquiring topographic data for comparison with 2019 beach-dune conditions.

Stronger adaptive response among small-scale fishers experiencing greater climate change hazard exposure

Progressive climate-driven environmental changes are threatening the global livelihoods of small-scale fishers, yet how their adaptation responses vary in relation to hazard exposure is poorly understood. We use a systematic review approach to identify a global data set of 301 reported adaptation responses (remaining, adaptive, and transformative) of small-scale fishers to climate change and analyse their spatial agreement with estimated geographical location of global coastal hotspot areas for specific climate change hazards associated to those responses (long-term trends in sea surface temperature, cumulative intensity of marine heatwaves, frequency of tropical storms, and intensity of associated storm surges). Only 37% of responses were found in climate change hotspots. Despite this, our results evidence that fishers are responding more passively in areas with lower exposure levels to abrupt climatic events. The relative proportion of adaptive and transformative responses increase with climate change hazard exposure.

ASSESSING LAND COVER CHANGE AROUND BAYOU PEROT-LITTLE LAKE, NEW ORLEANS USING SENTINEL 2 SATELLITE IMAGERY

Abstract. Global climate change has affected the rate of rising sea level, the frequency, intensity, timing, and distribution of hurricanes and tropical storms which threatens coastal ecosystems such as Bayou Perot, Little Lake in New Orleans along the Gulf of Mexico. The impact of hurricanes could include wetland and coastal land loss. This paper compared the land cover changes around Bayou-Perot- Little Lake, New Orleans, USA following Hurricanes Ida (August 26, 2021 to August 28, 2021). Two high-resolution Sentinel 2 imagery dated before and after Hurricane Ida was compared to assess the impacts of the hurricane on the land cover around Bayou Perot. A Random Forest classification (RF) algorithm in Google Earth Engine was used to produce maps and identify areas that have experienced conversions in land use or land cover change after the hurricane. This method of classification has the advantages of high classification accuracy and the ability to measure variable importance in land-cover mapping. In addition to random classification algorithm, other analysis such as the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) was be used to gain a better perspective of the overall changes in vegetation across the landscape. Five main classes were considered after the classification which included water, vegetation, bare soil, built up and marsh area. The results of the land cover change showed exposed old coastal marsh, valuable dune habitat providing storm protection to estuaries, wetlands, and the coastal population destroyed.

Context dependence in a tropical forest: Repeated disturbance reduces soil nitrate response but increases phosphate

AbstractHurricanes and other extreme events are increasing in many regions, yet their long‐term impacts on ecosystem function are uncertain. In forested ecosystems, soil solution chemistry provides an important tool to assess the impacts of disturbance on nutrient cycling and dissolved organic carbon dynamics. Here, we address the dependence of soil solution chemistry on disturbance regime using a novel combination of both experimental and observational results collected over a period of 16 years in montane tropical sites in the Luquillo Experimental Forest of Puerto Rico. Soil solution was sampled following various combinations of canopy trimming and detrital manipulation (2004), repeated manipulation (2014), drought (2015), and Hurricane Maria (2017). Soil solution was sensitive to disturbance but resilient, with return to baseline after 12–18 months. Any disturbance regime that involved loss of canopy and detrital inputs to the forest floor resulted in increased nitrate concentrations, but the response declined with repeated disturbance. Lysimeters in plots that had received no experimental manipulation had 1.5 times higher response to Hurricane Maria than those previously manipulated. The response to disturbance thus showed clear context dependence, with disturbance history affecting disturbance response. Among the nutrients and major ions, only nitrate showed a response to experimental manipulations, drought, and Hurricane Maria. In contrast to nitrate, soil solution potassium was unaltered by initial experimental manipulation but increased dramatically following drought and Hurricane Maria. Phosphorus only increased following Hurricane Maria and only in plots that had twice received experimental trimming and deposition of cut branches on the forest floor. Stoichiometry of dissolved organic matter also changed in these plots, with decreased carbon to nitrogen ratios. The potassium response suggests that damage to roots from tropical cyclones and drought is an important driver of the biogeochemical response to tropical storms. Dampening of soil nitrogen losses and increases in phosphorus losses following successive disturbance events indicates that increased frequency of tropical storms and droughts will result in fundamental alteration of soil biogeochemical cycles, with uncertain effects on forest structure.

Bayesian negative binomial regression model with unobserved covariates for predicting the frequency of north atlantic tropical storms

Predicting the annual frequency of tropical storms is of interest because it can provide basic information towards improved preparation against these storms. Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) averaged over the hurricane season can predict annual tropical cyclone activity well. But predictions need to be made before the hurricane season when the predictors are not yet observed. Several climate models issue forecasts of the SSTs, which can be used instead. Such models use the forecasts of SSTs as surrogates for the true SSTs. We develop a Bayesian negative binomial regression model, which makes a distinction between the true SSTs and their forecasts, both of which are included in the model. For prediction, the true SSTs may be regarded as unobserved predictors and sampled from their posterior predictive distribution. We also have a small fraction of missing data for the SST forecasts from the climate models. Thus, we propose a model that can simultaneously handle missing predictors and variable selection uncertainty. If the main goal is prediction, an interesting question is should we include predictors in the model that are missing at the time of prediction? We attempt to answer this question and demonstrate that our model can provide gains in prediction.

Observed Changes in the Frequency, Intensity, and Spatial Patterns of Nine Natural Hazards in the United States from 2000 to 2019.

There is increasing evidence from across the globe that climate change results in changes in the frequency, location, and impact of natural hazards. Much of this evidence is conceptual, inferential, or simply assumed. To provide objective support to confirm these hypotheses, we constructed county-level time-series datasets (2000-2019) for nine natural hazards for the entire United States. Hazards considered for this study included hurricanes, tropical storms, landslides, wildfires, earthquakes, drought, inland flooding, coastal flooding, and tornadoes. Geospatial analysis techniques were used to calculate the percentage (range: 0-100) of land area in each county exposed to each natural hazard for all the years that hazard data were available. The best available data were acquired from publicly accessible sources. Cumulative distribution functions were calculated for each hazard in five-year intervals to test for statistically significant changes in distribution patterns across the five-year time periods using the Kolmogorov-Smirnov test. There were significant changes in hurricanes, tropical storms, and drought over the two decades; changes in tornadoes, landslides, and wildfires were not significant in terms of frequency, likely due to the site-specific nature of their occurrences. The intensity and spatial distribution and an emerging hot spot and spatial trend analyses and an emerging hot spot and spatial trend analyses were also completed (except for flooding events and earthquakes due to insufficient data). All datasets provide empirical support for earlier inferences concerning the connections between the hazards and climate change. Analyses showed apparent changes in the frequency and intensity of hurricanes, tropical storms, and drought-related to climate change factors. Internal and coastal flooding also demonstrated these connections, although the length of the dataset did not permit significant testing but shows significant hot spots and trending locations. Tornadoes, landslides, and wildfires showed significant hot spots and trending locations, but the specific locational nature of the data did not show significant changes in frequency. Earthquakes showed no significant changes over the time period.

Assessment and management of coastal erosion: Insights from two tropical sandy shores in Mauritius Island

Rising sea level and increasing tropical storm frequency caused by the changing climate are threatening small Island economies which depend on their coastal environments and resources. Owing to the high socio-economic and environmental values of tropical sandy beaches, monitoring the evolution trends of shorelines are regarded as an essential strategy to improve the resilience of Island states. The present study conducted in Mauritius, indicates a net erosional effect at Le Morne amounting to 8049.7 ± 5% m2 which is attributed to the hydrodynamics of the lagoon, whilst a net accretional effect has been observed at Flic-en-Flac, equivalent to 6571.3 ± 5% m2 and attributed to periodic beach nourishments. The shoreline evolution at Le Morne is predominantly influenced by Passe de la Prairie where an average energy of 0.162 m2/Hz, corresponding to an average wave height of 1.16 m, carries enough energy and momentum to influence the sediment transport near the peninsula. At Flic-en-Flac, longshore currents propagating on either sides of the central region and directed northwards and southwards influence the shoreline, resulting in an accretion zone extending 62.5 ± 15 m near Villa Caroline over the 2009–2018 period. To dampen this problem, a beach management strategy is proposed which revolves around the restoration of corals in front of eroded shores, replacement of casuarina trees, and enforcement of regulatory laws.

The power of archaeology to address interpretation biases in modern geomorphology

It is common practice to apply and adapt characteristics from the present to the interpretation of the ecological setting of archaeological landscapes, but this approach can generate misleading conclusions and introduce erroneous assumptions. Landscape reconstruction is central for environmental archaeologists and for the study of past human dynamics. In the same manner, the study of geomorphological features and physical hazards in the present requires understanding of past human activity given the intensity of anthropogenic impact over landforms. It has been argued that archaeological perspectives have the potential to contribute to the study coastal hazards and risks in the present. In this article we examine and test this hypothesis. The study focuses the site of Punta Candelero (Puerto Rico, ca. 480 to 1100 calAD) as case study. The analysis revealed that the surface geomorphological interpretation of the study location is not supported by the stratigraphic and sedimentological data. The history of site formation linked to alluvial rather than marine processes at least during the Late Holocene and possibly since the end of the Pleistocene explains the erosion hazards the site is facing in the present. Decreased sediment input into the basin together with rising sea level, and increased magnitude and frequency of tropical storms as overwhelming drivers of geomorphological change are expected to continue transforming the coastal landscape. These factors, together with human activity, in the present can be expected to further threaten the coastal foreland and the archaeological site within it. The reinterpretation allows also for a more nuanced understanding of the role of the site within its contemporary social context, stimulating new interpretations and further research questions. The article demonstrates that archaeological research can help geomorphological understanding by identifying ancient landforms and providing the deep-time perspective of human use of spaces. This knowledge has the potential to contribute to the study of landforms and the understanding of possible physical hazards in the present.

Using Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index method (LMDI) to estimate drivers to final energy consumption and emissions in ASEAN

The ASEAN is currently trying to mitigate the amount of CO2 emissions per country. This is not only to contribute to the worldwide goal of lessening greenhouse gases, but to also ensure the safety of its member states by combatting the effects of climate change. The effects as stated by the IPCC, such as rising water levels, rising ambient temperature, and an increase in the frequency of tropical storms, can greatly endanger members of the ASEAN. It must be noted that a majority of its members are archipelagic, have areas of extreme poverty, and rely on agriculture for production. Therefore, the temporal logarithmic mean Divisia index (LMDI) has been conducted in order to determine the possible drivers that cause the changes in CO2 emissions per year for all ASEAN member countries. The drivers of CO2 were divided into the population, economic activity, energy intensity, and energy structure effects. CO2 emissions per fuel type were calculated using their respective emission factors. Knowing which drivers constitute the most CO2 emissions in a country would help pinpoint which areas could be worked on. It was found that Indonesia, Brunei Darussalam, and Lao PDR had the most impressive decrease in CO2 emissions due to energy intensity and structure effects. A majority of the other countries have either stayed constant or even increased CO2 emission output per year from each effect. Therefore, general policies based on the success of these countries that could be applied for each member country are recommended in this study.