Using Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index method (LMDI) to estimate drivers to final energy consumption and emissions in ASEAN

Abstract

The ASEAN is currently trying to mitigate the amount of CO2 emissions per country. This is not only to contribute to the worldwide goal of lessening greenhouse gases, but to also ensure the safety of its member states by combatting the effects of climate change. The effects as stated by the IPCC, such as rising water levels, rising ambient temperature, and an increase in the frequency of tropical storms, can greatly endanger members of the ASEAN. It must be noted that a majority of its members are archipelagic, have areas of extreme poverty, and rely on agriculture for production. Therefore, the temporal logarithmic mean Divisia index (LMDI) has been conducted in order to determine the possible drivers that cause the changes in CO2 emissions per year for all ASEAN member countries. The drivers of CO2 were divided into the population, economic activity, energy intensity, and energy structure effects. CO2 emissions per fuel type were calculated using their respective emission factors. Knowing which drivers constitute the most CO2 emissions in a country would help pinpoint which areas could be worked on. It was found that Indonesia, Brunei Darussalam, and Lao PDR had the most impressive decrease in CO2 emissions due to energy intensity and structure effects. A majority of the other countries have either stayed constant or even increased CO2 emission output per year from each effect. Therefore, general policies based on the success of these countries that could be applied for each member country are recommended in this study.