Frequency Of Stratospheric Sudden Warmings Research Articles

Sensitivity of easterly QBO’s boreal winter teleconnections and surface impacts to SSWs

Abstract The Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO) is thought to influence boreal winter surface conditions over Asia and around the North Atlantic. Confirming if these responses are robust is complicated by the QBO having multiple pathways to influence surface conditions as well as internal variability. The reanalysis record suggests that sudden stratospheric warmings (SSWs), breakdowns of the polar vortex that can elicit persistent surface impacts, are more frequent during easterly QBO (EQBO). Hence, this modulated frequency of SSWs may account for some of the EQBO surface responses. However, many climate models do not reproduce this QBO-SSW relationship, perhaps because it is noise or because the model QBOs are deficient. We circumvent these issues by using an ensemble of fixed boundary condition branched simulations in which a realistic EQBO is prescribed in control simulations previously devoid of a QBO, allowing us to isolate the transient atmospheric response to EQBO. Imposing EQBO accelerates the tropical upper tropospheric wind, shifts the subtropical jet poleward, and attenuates the polar vortex. Interestingly, the latter is not entirely dependent on the statistically significant increase in SSW frequency due to EQBO. Corroborating observations, EQBO is associated with warmer surface temperatures over Asia and negative North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) conditions. We then subsample the branched/control simulations based on which EQBO members have SSWs. The negative NAO response is primarily associated with more frequent SSWs while the Asia warming develops irrespective of SSWs. These results have implications for wintertime predictability and clarify the pairing of particular QBO-teleconnections with certain surface impacts.

Response of the resolved planetary wave activity and amplitude to turned off gravity waves in the UA-ICON general circulation model

The interaction between the resolved waves and parameterized gravity wave (GW) drag in the upper atmosphere extension of the ICON model (UA-ICON) are investigated. To this end, we performed a set of 30-year long time slice UA-ICON runs with two sensitivity simulations where either the subgrid-scale orographic (SSO) or non-orographic GW drag parameterizations are switched off (noSSO and noGWD, respectively), and compare them against a control (CTL) simulation where both GWs parameterizations are active. The stratospheric polar vortex accelerates, cools and shifts poleward in both sensitivity runs. The frequency of sudden stratospheric warmings in the CTL simulation is 5.7 events per decade and drops to 1.7 and 4 events per decade in the noSSO and noGWD, respectively. In both sensitivity runs (particularly in noGWD), an enhancement in the resolved wave amplitude is found in the high latitude stratosphere and in the mesosphere and lower thermosphere (MLT) region in all latitudes. The magnitudes of the resolved waves responses are generally larger for noGWD than noSSO. Our results confirm the compensation mechanism in the UA-ICON model, whereby the perturbed forcings in the GW parameterization drag are often canceled or partly compensated by a resolved large-scale wave driving of opposite sign. In addition, evidence is presented that the compensation mechanism is not always operative everywhere. For example, we found a suppression of the upward propagation of the resolved waves in the cold seasons in the noSSO experiment, which is likely linked to a significant reduction of the favorable propagation conditions in the upper stratosphere.

Boreal winter stratospheric climatology in EC-EARTH: CMIP6 version

The performance of the European Consortium Earth-system model (EC-EARTH) in the boreal winter stratosphere is comprehensively assessed for the first time, in particular its version 3.3 that contributes to CMIP6. A 100-year long simulation with prescribed climatological boundary conditions and fixed radiative forcing, representative of present-day climate, is used to evaluate the simulation of the climatological stratospheric circulation and to identify model biases. Results show that EC-EARTH has a large issue with the vertical distribution of stratospheric temperature from the tropics to mid-latitudes, seemingly linked to radiative processes of ozone, leading to a biased warm middle-upper stratosphere. Associated with this model bias, EC-EARTH simulates a stronger polar vortex at upper-stratospheric levels while the Brewer-Dobson circulation at middle/lower levels is weaker than reanalysis. The amplitude of the climatological planetary waves is overall underestimated, but the magnitude of the background wave injection from the troposphere into the stratosphere is overestimated, related to a weaker polar vortex at lower-stratospheric levels and, thus, a less effective wave filtering. This bias in the westerly flow could have a contribution from parameterized waves. The overestimation of background wave driving is maximum in early-winter, and may explain the overestimated frequency of sudden stratospheric warmings at this time, as compared to reanalysis. The spatial distribution of wave injection climatology has revealed a distinctive role of the climatological planetary waves: while large-scale waves (wavenumbers 1–2) dominate the eddy heat flux over the North Pacific, small-scale waves (wavenumbers 3–4) are responsible for the doubled-lobe structure of the eddy heat flux over Eurasia. EC-EARTH properly simulates this climatological feature, although overestimates its amplitude over central Eurasia.

Impact of Increased Vertical Resolution in WACCM on the Climatology of Major Sudden Stratospheric Warmings

Sudden stratospheric warmings (SSWs) are a major mode of variability of the winter stratosphere. In recent years, climate models have improved their ability to simulate SSWs. However, the representation of the frequency and temporal distribution of SSWs in models depends on many factors and remains challenging. The vertical resolution of a model might be one such factor. Therefore, here we analyse the impact of increased vertical resolution on the simulation of major sudden stratospheric warmings (SSWs) in the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model (WACCM). We compare two versions of the model, WACCM3.5 and WACCM4. We find that the frequency of occurrence of SSWs is improved in the newer version and closer to that obtained using reanalysis. Furthermore, simulations with a coupled ocean best reproduce the behaviour of temperature during these events. Increasing vertical resolution increases the number of occurrences; however, it does not produce significantly different results than standard resolution. WACCM4 also does not reproduce vortex split events well, generating far fewer of these than observed. Finally, the ratio between polar vortex splits and displacement events in the model is slightly better for non-ocean-coupled simulations. We conclude that, at least for WACCM4, the use of the high vertical resolution configuration is not cost-effective for the study of SSWs.

Arctic Stratosphere Circulation Changes in the 21st Century in Simulations of INM CM5

Simulations of Institute of Numerical Mathematics (INM) coupled climate model 5th version for the period from 2015 to 2100 under moderate (SSP2-4.5) and severe (SSP5-8.5) scenarios of greenhouse gases growth are analyzed to investigate changes of Arctic polar stratospheric vortex, planetary wave propagation, Sudden Stratospheric Warming frequency, Final Warming dates, and meridional circulation. Strengthening of wave activity propagation and a stationary planetary wave number 1 in the middle and upper stratosphere, acceleration of meridional circulation, an increase of winter mean polar stratospheric volume (Vpsc) and strengthening of Arctic stratosphere interannual variability after the middle of 21st century, especially under a severe scenario, were revealed. March monthly values of Vpsc in some winters could be about two times more than observed ones in the Arctic stratosphere in the spring of 2011 and 2020, which in turn could lead to large ozone layer destruction. Composite analysis shows that “warm” winters with the least winter mean Vpsc values are characterized by strengthening of wave activity propagation from the troposphere into the stratosphere in December but weaker propagation in January–February in comparison with winters having the largest Vpsc values.

Climatology and Long-Term Trends in the Stratospheric Temperature and Wind Using ERA5

This study analyses long-term trends in temperature and wind climatology based on ERA5 data. We study climatology and trends separately for every decade from 1980 to 2020 and their changes during this period. This study is focused on the pressure levels between 100–1 hPa, which essentially covers the whole stratosphere. We also analyze the impact of the sudden stratospheric warmings (SSW), North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO). This helps us to find details of climatology and trend behavior in the stratosphere in connection to these phenomena. ERA5 is one of the newest reanalysis, which is widely used for the middle atmosphere. We identify the largest differences which occur between 1990–2000 and 2000–2010 in both temperature climatology and trends. We suggest that these differences could relate to the different occurrence frequency of SSWs in 1990–2000 versus 2000–2010.

The Influence of Interdecadal Changes in Boreal Winter Teleconnections Around the 1980s on Planetary Waves and Stratospheric Sudden Warmings

AbstractThis study investigated the influence of the interdecadal changes in the Pacific‐North America (PNA) and Western Pacific (WP) teleconnections on the planetary waves and stratospheric sudden warmings (SSWs), based on the National Center for Environmental Prediction reanalysis and Japanese 55‐year reanalysis. Before the 1980s, there were more negative PNA & negative WP combinations (−PNA&−WP), and after the 1980s, there were more +PNA&+WP. +PNA&−WP and −PNA&+WP had no significant interdecadal changes before and after the 1980s. The interdecadal changes in the teleconnection combinations may be related to the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO). During +PNA&+WP (−PNA&−WP), the planetary waves with wavenumber 1 have the maximum (minimum) wave energy and propagating more (less) to the stratosphere, causing a greater (lesser) frequency of SSWs. Thus, the interdecadal changes in the teleconnection combinations are one of the important factors which could contribute to the possible increase in SSWs after the 1980s. Since there are no satellite observations on the stratosphere before 1979, there are still many uncertainties in the interdecadal changes in SSWs.

Erratum: The atmospheric response to positive IPV, positive AMV, and their combination in boreal winter (Journal of Climate (2019) DOI: 32 (4193-4213) DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-18-0422.1)

Author(s): ELSBURY, D; PEINGS, Y; SAINT-MARTIN, D; DOUVILLE, H; MAGNUSDOTTIR, G | Abstract: In Table 2 of Elsbury et al. (2019), titled atmospheric response to positive IPV, positive AMV, and their combination in boreal winter, the number and frequency of sudden stratospheric warmings (SSWs) for various background interdecadal Pacific variability (IPV) and Atlantic multidecadal variability (AMV) states are incorrect. The reproduction of the Charlton and Polvani (2007, 2011) SSW algorithm used includes final warmings, which increases the SSW occurrences. Following correction, the number of SSWs decreases across all simulations. These results are printed in Table 2 below. The climatological frequency is 0.52 events per season in our control, lower than the frequency detected in reanalysis, but consistent with the frequency retrieved by Marsh et al. (2013), who also use WACCM4. With the correction, the percent increase in SSWs relative to control remains very similar, equaling 15% for 1AMV, 26% for 1IPV, and 33% for 1AIV (1AMV and 1IPV together). These figures appear correctly in the table. In general, these errors do not change any of the major findings of the manuscript. We apologize for the confusion the suspiciously high SSW results may have caused.

Interaction between decadal-to-multidecadal oceanic variability and sudden stratospheric warmings.

Major sudden stratospheric warmings (SSWs) are the most important phenomena of the wintertime boreal stratospheric variability. During SSWs, the polar temperature increases abruptly, and easterlies prevail in the stratosphere. Their effects extend farther from the polar stratosphere, affecting near-surface circulation. According to observations, SSWs are not equally distributed in time, with decades experiencing very few events, while others experiencing SSWs almost every winter. Some sources of this SSW multidecadal variability can be traced back to sea surface temperature changes. Here, we investigate the effects of Pacific decadal variability (PDV) and Atlantic multidecadal variability (AMV) on SSWs. We use for the first time a large ensemble of historical experiments to examine the modulation of the frequency, tropospheric precursors, and impact of SSWs by the PDV and AMV. We find a strong impact of the PDV on the occurrence of SSWs, with a higher SSW frequency for the positive phase of the PDV. This PDV influence is mediated by constructive interference of PDV anomalies with tropospheric stationary waves. The main effect of AMV is, instead, a modulation of the tropospheric response to SSWs, a finding that can be useful for predicting the tropospheric fingerprint of SSWs.

How Frequent Are Antarctic Sudden Stratospheric Warmings in Present and Future Climate?

AbstractSouthern Hemisphere (SH) stratospheric sudden warmings (SSWs) result in smaller Antarctic ozone holes and are linked to extreme midlatitude weather on subseasonal to seasonal timescales. Therefore, it is of interest how often such events occur and whether we should expect more events in the future. Here, we use a pair of novel multimillennial simulations with a stratosphere‐resolving coupled ocean‐atmosphere climate model to show that the frequency of SSWs, such as observed 2002 and 2019, is about one in 22 years for 1990 conditions. In addition, we show that we should expect the frequency of SSWs, and that of more moderate vortex weakening events, to strongly decrease by the end of this century.

CMIP5/6 models project little change in the statistical characteristics of sudden stratospheric warmings in the 21st century

Using state-of-the-art models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phases 5 and 6 (CMIP5/6), future changes of sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) events under a moderate emission scenario (RCP45/SSP245) and a strong emissions scenario (RCP85/SSP585) are evaluated with respect to the historical simulations. Changes in four characteristics of SSWs are examined in 54 models: the SSW frequency, the seasonal distribution, stratosphere–troposphere coupling, and the persistency of the distorted or displaced polar vortex. The composite results show that none of these four aspects will change robustly. An insignificant (though positive) change in the SSW frequency from historical simulations to RCP45/SSP245 and then to RCP85/SSP585 is consistently projected by CMIP5 and CMIP6 multimodel ensembles in most wintertime months (December–March). This increase in the SSW frequency is most pronounced in mid- (late-) winter in CMIP6 (CMIP5). No shift in the seasonality of SSWs is simulated especially in the CMIP6 future scenarios. Both the reanalysis and CMIP5/6 historical simulations exhibit strong stratosphere–troposphere coupling during SSWs, and the coupling strength is nearly unchanged in the future scenario simulations. The near surface responds immediately after the onset of SSWs in both historical and future scenarios experiments, denoted by the deep downward propagation of zonal-mean easterly anomalies from the stratosphere to the troposphere. On average, the composite circumpolar easterly winds persist for 8 d in the reanalysis and CMIP5/6 historical experiments, which are projected to remain unchanged in both the moderate and strong emissions scenarios, implying the lifecycle of SSWs will not change.

Variations in the Frequency of Stratospheric Sudden Warmings in CMIP5 and CMIP6 and Possible Causes

AbstractThe climatological frequency of stratospheric sudden warming events (SSWs) is an important dynamical characteristic of the extratropical stratosphere. However, modern climate models have difficulties in simulating this frequency, with many models either considerably under- or overestimating the observational estimates. Past research has found that models with a higher upper lid tend to simulate a higher and more realistic number of SSWs. The present study revisits this issue and investigates causes for biases in the simulated SSW frequency from the CMIP5 and CMIP6 models. It is found that variations in the frequency are closely related to 1) the strength of the polar vortex and 2) the upward-propagating wave activity in the stratosphere. While it is difficult to explain the variations in the polar vortex strength from the available model output, the stratospheric wave activity is influenced by different aspects of the climatological mean state of the atmosphere in the lower stratosphere. We further find that models with a finer vertical resolution in the stratosphere are overall more realistic: vertical resolution is associated with a smaller cold bias above the extratropical tropopause, more upward-propagating wave activity in the lower stratosphere, and a higher frequency of SSWs. We conclude that not only a high model lid but also a fine vertical resolution in the stratosphere is important for simulating the dynamical variability of the stratosphere.

The effect of interactive ozone chemistry on weak and strong stratospheric polar vortex events

Abstract. Modeling and observational studies have reported effects of stratospheric ozone extremes on Northern Hemisphere spring climate. Recent work has further suggested that the coupling of ozone chemistry and dynamics amplifies the surface response to midwinter sudden stratospheric warmings (SSWs). Here we study the importance of interactive ozone chemistry in representing the stratospheric polar vortex and Northern Hemisphere winter surface climate variability. We contrast two simulations from the interactive and specified chemistry (and thus ozone) versions of the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model, which is designed to isolate the impact of interactive ozone on polar vortex variability. In particular, we analyze the response with and without interactive chemistry to midwinter SSWs, March SSWs, and strong polar vortex events (SPVs). With interactive chemistry, the stratospheric polar vortex is stronger and more SPVs occur, but we find little effect on the frequency of midwinter SSWs. At the surface, interactive chemistry results in a pattern resembling a more negative North Atlantic Oscillation following midwinter SSWs but with little impact on the surface signatures of late winter SSWs and SPVs. These results suggest that including interactive ozone chemistry is important for representing North Atlantic and European winter climate variability.

Uncertainty in the Response of Sudden Stratospheric Warmings and Stratosphere‐Troposphere Coupling to Quadrupled CO2 Concentrations in CMIP6 Models

AbstractMajor sudden stratospheric warmings (SSWs), vortex formation, and final breakdown dates are key highlight points of the stratospheric polar vortex. These phenomena are relevant for stratosphere‐troposphere coupling, which explains the interest in understanding their future changes. However, up to now, there is not a clear consensus on which projected changes to the polar vortex are robust, particularly in the Northern Hemisphere, possibly due to short data record or relatively moderate CO2 forcing. The new simulations performed under the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, Phase 6, together with the long daily data requirements of the DynVarMIP project in preindustrial and quadrupled CO2 (4xCO2) forcing simulations provide a new opportunity to revisit this topic by overcoming the limitations mentioned above. In this study, we analyze this new model output to document the change, if any, in the frequency of SSWs under 4xCO2 forcing. Our analysis reveals a large disagreement across the models as to the sign of this change, even though most models show a statistically significant change. As for the near‐surface response to SSWs, the models, however, are in good agreement as to this signal over the North Atlantic: There is no indication of a change under 4xCO2 forcing. Over the Pacific, however, the change is more uncertain, with some indication that there will be a larger mean response. Finally, the models show robust changes to the seasonal cycle in the stratosphere. Specifically, we find a longer duration of the stratospheric polar vortex and thus a longer season of stratosphere‐troposphere coupling.

Parallel Comparison of Major Sudden Stratospheric Warming Events in CESM1-WACCM and CESM2-WACCM

After the recent release of the historical runs by community Earth system model version 2–the whole atmosphere community climate model (CESM2-WACCM), the major sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) events in this model and in its previous version (CESM1-WACCM) are compared based on a modern reanalysis (JRA55). Using the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) definition of SSWs and a threshold-based classification method that can describe the polar vortex morphology, SSWs in models and the reanalysis are further classified into two types, vortex displacement SSWs and vortex split SSWs. The general statistical characteristics of the two types of SSW events in the two model versions are evaluated. Both CESM1-WACCM and CESM2-WACCM models are shown to reproduce the SSW frequency successfully, although the circulations differences between vortex displacement SSWs and vortex split SSWs in CESM2-WACCM are smaller than in CESM1-WACCM. Composite polar temperature, geopotential height, wind, and eddy heat flux anomalies in both the two models and the reanalysis show similar evolutions. In addition, positive Pacific–North America and negative Western Pacific patterns in the troposphere preceding vortex displacement and split SSWs are observed in both observations and the models. The strong negative North Atlantic oscillation-like pattern, especially after vortex split SSW onset, is also identified in models. The near-surface cold Eurasia–warm North America pattern before both types of SSW onset, the warm Eurasia–cold North America pattern after displacement SSW onset, and the cold Eurasia–cold North America pattern after split SSW onset are consistently identified in JRA55, CESM1-WACCM, and CESM2-WACCM, although the temperature anomalies after the split SSW onset in CESM2-WACCM are somewhat underestimated.

On the Linearity of the Stratospheric and Euro-Atlantic Sector Response to ENSO

Abstract The dependence of the winter stratospheric and Euro-Atlantic climate response on ENSO amplitude is investigated using the HadGEM3 model. Experiments are performed with imposed east Pacific sea surface temperature perturbations corresponding to Niño-3.4 anomalies of ±0.75, 1.5, 2.25, and 3.0 K. In the North Pacific, El Niño (EN) deepens and shifts the Aleutian low eastward, while the equivalent magnitude La Niña (LN) perturbations drive anomalies of opposite sign that are around 4 times weaker. The muted North Pacific response to LN can be traced back to the weaker response of tropical convection and the associated anomalous Rossby wave source. The EN perturbations weaken the Arctic polar vortex, with the winter mean zonal mean zonal wind at 60°N and 10 hPa decreasing approximately linearly with Niño-3.4 anomaly by around −3.6 m s−1 K−1. For the strongest EN case (+3 K), the frequency of sudden stratospheric warmings (SSWs) increases by ~60% compared to the control experiment. Hence the results do not support a saturation of the stratospheric pathway for strong EN as suggested in previous literature. The equivalent amplitude LN perturbations cause a weak strengthening of the polar vortex and no substantial change in SSW frequency, in contrast to some reanalysis-based studies. EN induces a negative North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index throughout boreal winter, which increases approximately linearly with the Niño-3.4 anomaly by around −0.6 standard deviations K−1. Only the response to the strongest LN perturbations projects onto a weak positive NAO in November, suggesting that the mechanism for the Euro-Atlantic response to LN may be distinct from EN.

The Importance of a Properly Represented Stratosphere for Northern Hemisphere Surface Variability in the Atmosphere and the Ocean

Major sudden stratospheric warmings (SSWs) are extreme events during boreal winter, which not only impact tropospheric weather up to three months but also can influence oceanic variability through wind stress and heat flux anomalies. In the North Atlantic region, SSWs have the potential to modulate deep convection in the Labrador Sea and thereby the strength of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation. The impact of SSWs on the Northern Hemisphere surface climate is investigated in two coupled climate models: a stratosphere-resolving (high top) and a non-stratosphere-resolving (low top) model. In both configurations, a robust link between SSWs and a negative NAO is detected, which leads to shallower-than-normal North Atlantic mixed layer depth. The frequency of SSWs and the persistence of this link is better captured in the high-top model. Significant differences occur over the Pacific region, where an unrealistically persistent Aleutian low is observed in the low-top configuration. An overrepresentation of SSWs during El Niño conditions in the low-top model is the main cause for this artifact. Our results underline the importance of a proper representation of the stratosphere in a coupled climate model for a consistent surface response in both the atmosphere and the ocean, which, among others, may have implications for oceanic deep convection in the subpolar North Atlantic.

The MJO‐SSW Teleconnection: Interaction Between MJO‐Forced Waves and the Midlatitude Jet

AbstractThe Madden‐Julian Oscillation (MJO) was shown to affect both present‐day sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) events in the Arctic and their future frequency under global warming scenarios, with implications to the Arctic Oscillation and midlatitude extreme weather. This work uses a dry dynamic core model to understand the dependence of SSW frequency on the amplitude and longitudinal range of the MJO, motivated by the prediction that the MJO will strengthen and broaden its longitudinal range in a warmer climate. We focus on the response of the midlatitude jets and the corresponding generated stationary waves, which are shown to dominate the response of SSW events to MJO forcing. Momentum budget analysis of a large ensemble of spinup simulations suggests that the climatological jet response is driven by the MJO‐forced meridional eddy momentum transport. The results suggest that the trends in both MJO amplitude and longitudinal range are important for the prediction of the midlatitude jet response and for the prediction of SSWs in a future climate.

Sensitivity of the Brewer–Dobson Circulation and Polar Vortex Variability to Parameterized Nonorographic Gravity Wave Drag in a High-Resolution Atmospheric Model

The role of parameterized nonorographic gravity wave drag (NOGWD) and its seasonal interaction with the resolved wave drag in the stratosphere has been extensively studied in low-resolution (coarser than 1.9° × 2.5°) climate models but is comparatively unexplored in higher-resolution models. Using the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts Integrated Forecast System at 0.7° × 0.7° resolution, the wave drivers of the Brewer–Dobson circulation are diagnosed and the circulation sensitivity to the NOGW launch flux is explored. NOGWs are found to account for nearly 20% of the lower-stratospheric Southern Hemisphere (SH) polar cap downwelling and for less than 10% of the lower-stratospheric tropical upwelling and Northern Hemisphere (NH) polar cap downwelling. Despite these relatively small numbers, there are complex interactions between NOGWD and resolved wave drag, in both polar regions. Seasonal cycle analysis reveals a temporal offset in the resolved and parameterized wave interaction: the NOGWD response to altered source fluxes is largest in midwinter, while the resolved wave response is largest in the late winter and spring. This temporal offset is especially prominent in the SH. The impact of NOGWD on sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) life cycles and the final warming date in the SH is also investigated. An increase in NOGWD leads to an increase in SSW frequency, reduction in amplitude and persistence, and an earlier recovery of the stratopause following an SSW event. The SH final warming date is also brought forward when NOGWD is increased. Thus, NOGWD is still found to be a very important parameterization for stratospheric dynamics even in a high-resolution atmospheric model.

More Frequent Sudden Stratospheric Warming Events due to Enhanced MJO Forcing Expected in a Warmer Climate

Sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) events influence the Arctic Oscillation and midlatitude extreme weather. Observations show SSW events to be correlated with certain phases of the Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO), but the effect of the MJO on SSW frequency is unknown, and the teleconnection mechanism, its planetary wave propagation path, and time scale are still not completely understood. The Arctic stratosphere response to increased MJO forcing expected in a warmer climate using two models is studied: the comprehensive Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model and an idealized dry dynamical core with and without MJO-like forcing. It is shown that the frequency of SSW events increases significantly in response to stronger MJO forcing, also affecting the averaged polar cap temperature. Two teleconnection mechanisms are identified: a direct propagation of MJO-forced transient waves to the Arctic stratosphere and a nonlinear enhancement of stationary waves by the MJO-forced transient waves. The MJO-forced waves propagate poleward in the lower stratosphere and upper troposphere and then upward. The cleaner results of the idealized model allow identifying the propagating signal and suggest a horizontal propagation time scale of 10–20 days, followed by additional time for upward propagation within the Arctic stratosphere, although there are significant uncertainties involved. Given that the MJO is predicted to be stronger in a warmer climate, these results suggest that SSW events may become more frequent, with possible implications on tropospheric high-latitude weather. However, the effect of an actual warming scenario on SSW frequency involves additional effects besides a strengthening of the MJO, requiring further investigation.