Frequency Of Extreme Climatic Events Research Articles

Economic structure, export specialization and greenhouse gas emissions in Latin America

Industrial societies have significantly increased greenhouse gas emissions, resulting in higher average temperatures compared to pre-industrial levels. This has disrupted the socio-environmental balance and led to more frequent extreme climatic events. In response, several organizations have developed strategies that prioritize reducing the environmental impact of human activities. Achieving this goal requires a thorough understanding of the relationship between economic structures and pollutant emissions to elaborate industrial policies that promote a transition to a greener economy. This study focuses on Latin America, a region highly vulnerable to climate change due to its geographical characteristics and reliance on primary sector activities and tourism. Our analysis underscores the necessity of identifying factors that jeopardize socio-environmental sustainability.

How does heavy haze weather impact operational efficiency? An empirical study of Chinese manufacturing firms

Global warming has escalated the frequency of extreme climate events. Considering the escalating severity of air pollution, investigating its potential to cause operational problems is of value. Some studies have explored air pollution's effects from individual perspectives, including emotions, attitudes, and decision-making behaviors. Yet, the influence of heavy haze weather on firm performance from an operations management viewpoint remains uninvestigated. This study seeks to address this research gap. Utilizing a longitudinal dataset from 2255 manufacturing firms between 2014 and 2020, this study empirically examines heavy haze weather's impact on operational efficiency. Three contingency categories are identified: strategic positioning, structural contingency, and institutional factors. The findings suggest that heavy haze weather adversely impacts operational efficiency, notably for firms with cost leadership strategies and high labor productivity, whereas such effect can weaken in the firms with process standardization and governmental environment inspection. Enhancing the understanding about the effect of heavy haze weather on operational performance, these findings offer strategic insights for firms to mitigate heavy haze weather and provide empirical support for government to make environmental policy-making.

Uncovering the evolution of ozone pollution in China: A spatiotemporal characteristics reconstruction from 1980 to 2021

Ozone pollution emerged as a significant environmental concern in China in recent years. Given the enduring impact of anthropogenic activities on the atmosphere, understanding the long-term evolutionary patterns of ozone pollution is crucial for effective pollution mitigation strategies. However, there have been limited studies to reconstruct spatiotemporal continuity ozone concentrations in China since 1980. In this research, monthly and daily MDA8 ozone concentrations from 1980 to 2021 were first estimated by reproducing the numerical relations between ozone pollution and the atmospheric environment based on a machine learning approach. The verification results from temporal, spatial, and sample-based cross-validation methods demonstrated the model performance in simulating MDA8 ozone concentration spatiotemporally, with correlation coefficients (R) ranging from 0.76 to 0.79, mean square error (RMSE) ranging from 22.72 μg·m−3 to 24.28 μg·m−3, and mean absolute error (MAE) ranging from 17.06 μg·m−3 to 18.25 μg·m−3. The evolution of ozone pollution in China can be delineated into two phases, characterized by an increasing trend since 2001, coinciding with significant rises in average annual temperature and hot weather frequency over the past four decades. The 90th percentile of ozone concentration from 2001 to 2021 increased by 1.79% compared to the period from 1980 to 2001. Notably, ozone episodes have expanded beyond summer months, partly due to global warming and frequent extreme climate events, contributing to an annual temperature increase of 0.03 °C. Despite several pollutant emission restrictions since 2013, the ozone pollution in China has persisted due to the increased emissions of VOCs. Spatially, severe ozone pollution hotspots are evident in Xinjiang province, the Jing-Jin-Ji urban agglomeration, and Northeast China, with notable increases observed in Tibet and the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area over the past six years. Moreover, the influence factors were identified by the average reduction of node impurity calculation. The evolution of ozone pollution was inextricably linked to solar radiation and atmospheric temperature, which played pivotal positive roles in ozone formation. Whilst, there is significant heterogeneity in the effect of meteorological conditions on ozone concentrations due to the disparity between land and oceanic climates.

THE EFFECTS OF EXTREME CLIMATE EVENTS ON GREEN TECHNOLOGY INNOVATION IN MANUFACTURING ENTERPRISES

The increasing intensity and frequency of extreme climate events have made improving the adaptability to extreme climate events a strategic imperative for manufacturing companies. This paper investigates whether manufacturing enterprises increase green technology innovation affected by different extreme climate events. Based on panel data of Chinese listed manufacturing enterprises, we show that extreme precipitation events can positively promote green technology innovation, yet extreme temperature events do not. Heterogeneity analyses suggest that the effect of extreme precipitation events on green technology innovation is more significant for non-state-owned enterprises, poor performance enterprises, and high R&D intensity enterprises than other enterprises. Furthermore, the facilitating effect of extreme precipitation events on green technology innovation is merely temporary.

How extreme hydrological events correspond to climate extremes in the context of global warming: A case study in the Luanhe River Basin of North China

AbstractThe consensus on climate warming is well‐established, and extreme values inherently encapsulate more information than averages. Against the backdrop of frequent extreme climate events, studying extreme values holds profound significance. This study aims to reveal the characteristics of extreme climate events and their role in triggering extreme hydrological events in the typical North China basin, that is, the Luanhe River Basin. Trends of 25 extreme climate indices during 1960–2018 are analysed using the Sen's slope and MK significance test to study the changing characteristics of extreme climate. Characteristics of extreme flood and dry events are examined, encompassing trend analyses at different time scales (seasonal, interannual, decadal) and concentration analysis. Finally, and most significantly, correlation analysis is conducted on extreme climate indices and features of extreme hydrological events, followed by principal component analysis of extreme climate indices, to precisely quantify the impact of extreme climate on the occurrence of extreme hydrological events. The results indicate a warming trend in extreme temperature indices, with a more significant rise in minimum temperatures compared to maximum temperatures. There is a significant decrease in precipitation, but precipitation at higher magnitudes is less affected by the overall reduction in total precipitation. Extreme dry events have markedly increased, particularly concentrated in winter with delayed occurrences, primarily induced by extreme temperature events, that is, warming effects. Conversely, extreme flood events have significantly decreased, mainly concentrated in summer and early autumn, predominantly caused by extreme precipitation and extreme high‐temperature events. The climate and hydrological conditions in the study area have become more extreme and complex. Severe river droughts may occur more frequently in winter, while extreme flooding may happen in summer. Therefore, it is necessary to pay more attention to these developments.

Monitoring the response of Saudi Arabia's largest fossil aquifer system to climate variability

The study utilizes an integrated approach that involves GRACE and Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) data to analyze temporal water mass variations in Saudi Arabia (KSA). Recently, KSA has witnessed a historic wet period between 2018 and 2020 (i.e., 120–150 mm/year) following a prolonged dry period between 2002 and 2017 (i.e., 80–100 mm/year). Inspection of GRACE data showed a decline in groundwater recharge of −4 to −6 mm during the dry period. The depletion was reduced by 1 to 6.8 mm in the Northeastern side of KSA (e.g. Hail, Al-Jouf, Al-Hudud Ash-Shamaliyah areas) during the wet period. This impressive recovery has led to a groundwater recharge increase of 360 km3 in Hail, 174 km3 in Al-Jouf and 97 km3 in Al-Hudud Ash-Shamaliyah. The findings emphasize the notion that climate change will bring more frequent extreme climatic events to the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia and call for continuous monitoring of aquifers every year.

Impact of climate change on food security of smallholder farmers in Shashogo district, central Ethiopia

Climate variability/climate change has become the biggest challenge to food security. Objective of this study is to determine the impact of climate change/variability on food security. The study utilized primary and secondary data sources obtained through household surveys. The result shows that rainfall in Belg varies greatly, suggesting that seasonal harvests in Belg are failing, leading to a decline in production levels in certain quantities and limited food availability. Rainfall in Kiremt fluctuates moderately, while annual rainfall has the lowest fluctuations. Crop prices increase every year in recently. This change in agricultural crop yields was due to climate change manifested in price volatility. Consumers have been adversely affected by an increase in crop prices. As reported FGD group that crop yields have been declining from year to year consequences of this are fluctuations in upcoming and late season rainfall, an unusual rise in temperature, flooding and the spread of the American warm, which the community to shift their livelihood to non-agricultural activities. Next to crop farming, raising livestock is one of the main sources of income for rural communities; nevertheless, the productivity and stocks of livestock may be impacted by climate change. Food stability is impacted not only by climate variability but also by increasingly frequent and intense extreme climate events that affect availability, access, and use. Stakeholders who would take steps to combat a loss of agricultural production in the Belg season were presented with the study’s results.

Heatwaves inflict reproductive but not survival costs to male insects.

Climate change is having a dramatic effect on the environment, with rising global temperatures and more frequent extreme climatic events, such as heatwaves, that can hamper organisms' biological functions. Although it is clear that sudden and extreme temperatures can damage reproductive processes, there is limited understanding of the effects of heatwaves on male mating behaviour and reproductive success. We tested for the effects of heat stress induced by ecologically relevant heatwaves (33°C and 39°C for five consecutive days) on the mating behaviour, reproductive success, body mass and survival of male field crickets Gryllus bimaculatus, paired with untreated females. We predicted life-history and reproductive costs would increase with increasing heatwave intensity. Consistent with our expectations, males exposed to the highest heatwave temperature produced the fewest offspring, while having to increase courtship effort to successfully mate. Males also gained relatively more weight following heatwave exposure. Given that we found no difference in lifetime survival, our results suggest a potential trade-off in resource allocation between somatic maintenance and reproductive investment. Taken together, our findings indicate that sublethal effects of heatwaves could reduce the growth and persistence of animal populations by negatively impacting reproductive rates. These findings highlight the need for considering thermal ecologies, life history and behaviour to better understand the consequences of extreme climatic events on individuals and populations.

Increased frequency of extreme climatic events weakens the community stability of natural grassland under directional climate changes by reducing resilience

AbstractAimChronic directional climate changes in temperature and precipitation are predicted to increase the frequency of extreme climatic events (ECEs); however, their co‐occurring effects on the temporal stability of community productivity (i.e. ANPP stability) are still unclear. Here, we evaluate whether the increased frequency of ECEs reduces ANPP stability, and how it modulates the effects of chronic directional climate factors on ANPP stability in natural grassland.LocationTwenty‐two sites in Asia and 14 sites in North America.Time period1980s–2010s.Major taxa studiedHerbaceous plant.MethodsWe collected 36 long‐term observational and consecutive ANPP data (at least 10 years) and resampled yearly ANPP via a consecutive resampling method of nested time windows for each field. We used linear mixed‐effect models, partial regression analysis and structure equation models to explore the interactive effects of three climatic factors on ANPP stability and their associated intermediate processes of sensitivity, asymmetry, resistance and resilience.ResultsThe increased frequency of ECEs was observed within the long‐term rising temperature and elevating precipitation trend across sites in the past several decades. Elevating precipitation rather than rising temperature was the primary driver influencing ANPP stability. Elevating precipitation increased ANPP stability through increasing mean ANPP and decreasing the standard deviation (i.e. SD) of ANPP due to a decrease in sensitivity of ANPP to precipitation. The increased frequency of ECEs decreased ANPP stability mainly by increasing the SD of ANPP, and it reduced the positive effect of elevated precipitation on ANPP stability via a decrease in resilience.Main conclusionOur results demonstrated that recurrent and discrete ECEs had cumulatively negative effects on ANPP stability, and the decreased resilience was identified as the primary factor reducing the grassland community stability under long‐term climate change. This highlighted the potential risks of increased frequency of ECEs for grassland ecosystem functions.

A review on carbon emission accounting approaches for the electricity power industry

The carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions have reached their highest levels since measurements began in recent years. This is widely regarded as one of the primary factors contributing to the increasing frequency of extreme climate events. Consequently, accurate and reliable CO2 emission data becomes the benchmark in shaping policies and setting targets aimed at reducing emissions, which are essential for carbon emission-related research. Among all industries, the electric power sector takes the highest proportion of CO2 emissions, making the carbon emission accounting for this sector a crucial component of overall carbon emissions accounting. Therefore, the objective of this paper is to provide a comprehensive review of the applied technologies and research progress in electricity carbon emissions accounting. The paper begins by introducing the fundamental concept of electricity carbon emission accounting. Electricity carbon emissions are categorized into two types: direct carbon emissions from electricity production and indirect carbon emissions from electricity consumption. Then, the current applied approaches for accounting for these two types of emissions are reviewed separately. After analyzing the shortages of existing applied carbon emission accounting approaches, the paper proceeds to review the research on the improved approaches of direct and indirect carbon emission accounting. Finally, the paper outlines the future development prospects of carbon emission accounting technology.

Multi-century (635-year) spring season precipitation reconstruction from northern Pakistan revealed increasing extremes

The Hindu Kush Himalaya region is experiencing rapid climate change with adverse impacts in multiple sectors. To put recent climatic changes into a long-term context, here we reconstructed the region’s climate history using tree-ring width chronologies of climate-sensitive Cedrus deodara and Pinus gerardiana. Growth-climate analysis reveals that the species tree-growth is primarily limited by moisture stress during or preceding the growing season, as indicated by a positive relationship between the chronology and precipitation and scPDSI, and a negative one with temperature. We have reconstructed 635 years (1384–2018 CE) of February–June precipitation using a robust climate reconstruction model that explains about 53% variance of the measured precipitation data. Our reconstruction shows several dry and wet episodes over the reconstruction period along with an increase in extreme precipitation events during recent centuries or years. Long, very wet periods were observed during the following years: 1392–1393, 1430–1433, 1456–1461, 1523–1526, 1685–1690, 1715–1719, 1744–1748, 1763–1767, 1803–1806, 1843–1846, 1850–1855, 1874–1876, 1885–1887, 1907–1909, 1921–1925, 1939–1944, and 1990–1992, while long dry periods were observed during the following years: 1398–1399, 1464–1472, 1480–1484, 1645–1649, 1724–1727, 1782–1786, 1810–1814, 1831–1835, 1879–1881, 1912–1918, 1981–1986, 1998–2003, and 2016–2018 CE. We found predominantly short-term periodicity cycles of 2.0, 2.2, 2.3, 2.4, 2.6–2.7, 2.9, 3.3, 4.8, 8.1–8.3, and 9.4–9.6 years in our reconstruction. Spatial correlation analyses reveal that our reconstruction is an effective representation of the precipitation variability in the westerly climate-dominated areas of Pakistan and adjacent regions. In addition to the influence of regional circulation systems like western disturbances, we found possible teleconnections between the precipitation variability in northern Pakistan and broader-scale climate modes or phases like AMO and ENSO. The study also highlights the prospects of tree-ring application to explore linkages between western disturbance, increasing intensity and frequency of extreme climate events, and analysis of long-term atmospheric circulation over the western Himalayan region.

Nephrology Nurses: Essential Professionals in Sustainable Kidney Care.

The increasing frequency of extreme climate events underscores the need for urgent action on climate change. The health care system contributes 4.6% of greenhouse gas emissions (GHGs) in Canada; thus, it is a major contributor to the country's carbon footprint. Kidney care in particular can involve high amounts of waste (eg, plastic and consumable waste associated with dialysis, transportation, emissions, energy, and water consumption). Therefore, sustainability initiatives within the health care system, and especially in the context of kidney care, have great potential to make a positive impact on planetary health. Here, we outline ways in which nephrology nurses can expand our duty of care to the environment and incorporate sustainability into our work. A small advisory group of nephrology nurses in partnership with the Canadian Association of Nurses for the Environment (CANE) assessed ways that sustainable practices can be incorporated into nephrology nursing. Drawing on the Planetary Health Care model used by the Canadian Society of Nephrology: Sustainable Nephrology Action Planning (SNAP) committee, we assessed how the model could be adapted in the context of kidney care using 3 main actionable themes in their work: reducing the demand for health services, matching the supply of health services with demand, and reducing emissions from the supply of health services. We also reviewed and selected real-world examples of initiatives pursued by colleagues. Through this established framework, we provide recommendations and case examples for nephrology nurses to expand our duty of care to the environment. We describe nursing-led strategies used in Canada to improve environmental sustainability in kidney programs and consider their applicability to other renal programs. In 1 case example, we show how a simple nurse-led initiative at a single dialysis clinic can lower plastic waste and associated costs by $2042.59 per year. More broadly, we provide recommendations and actions for nephrology nurses to improve environmental sustainability in kidney care. Nurses in Canada have many responsibilities within limited timeframes, making it essential to choose sustainable practices that do not exacerbate burnout and high workloads. For sustainable practices to be successful, nurses must integrate them into their existing workflows.

Characterizing extreme drought and wetness in Guangdong, China using global navigation satellite system and precipitation data

As global temperature rises, the frequency of extreme climate events, e.g., severe droughts and floods, has increased significantly and caused severe damage over the past years. To this regard, precipitation efficiency, a crucial meteorological parameter, could provide valuable insights for a better understanding of the patterns and characteristics of these extreme events. In this study, taking Guangdong province as an exemplary region, we first obtained long-term and high-resolution historical records of precipitation efficiency by integrating the observations from a dense network of Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) stations with precipitation data, and then characterized the extreme drought and wetness through climate indices. We found a distinct seasonal trend in precipitation efficiency in Guangdong, with annual fluctuations ranging from 10 to 25%. Notably, precipitation efficiency is higher in proximity to the Pearl River Delta Plain and gradually decreases towards the east and west. The occurrence of anomalous peaks and valleys in precipitation efficiency generally corresponds to dry and wet conditions, respectively. A total of 9 extreme wet events and 6 dry events occurred from January 2007 to May 2022, with durations from 3 to 6 months. Our results also demonstrated that both wet and dry frequencies exhibit an increasing trend with the expansion of the time scale, and the frequency of extreme events near the Pearl River Delta Plain surpasses that of other regions. Furthermore, the propagation time from meteorological anomalies to agricultural and hydrological anomalies is about 3 months. The periodic characteristics of meteorological anomalies are identified as the primary driver for other anomalous periodic patterns. Our work unveils the long-term dynamic behavior of precipitation efficiency, as well as the characteristics of extreme drought and wetness events in the regions characterized by intricate land–atmosphere interactions.

Relationship between ESG and Financial Performance of Companies in the Central and Eastern European Region

Abstract Observable climate change and an increase in the frequency of extreme climate events undoubtedly pose challenges for society and business operations. The changes being implemented in sustainability efforts are a response to these challenges. However, the question is how these measures affect companies‘ financial performance. The study aims to verify the relationship between the reporting of sustainability scores related to three aspects: environmental, social, and corporate governance (ESG). It focuses on the financial performance of companies in the Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) region in 2017–2021. The study will use panel regression and cross-sectional analysis. The results indicate a positive relationship between the disclosure of ESG activities and the financial performance of companies as measured by ROA. It was also observed that for companies operating in the financial sector, the correlation is greater, compared to companies operating in other sectors. This study contributes to the ongoing debate on the environment, society, and governance in the economy.

It takes two to Tango: Plant height and nutrient level determine the diet selection of wintering geese in Poyang Lake, a Ramsar wetland

In Poyang Lake, the largest and one of the most important wintering sites in the East Asian-Australasian Flyway, Carex (Carex cinerascens Kük) meadows provide the primary food source for the wintering geese. However, due to intensified river regulation and more frequent extreme climatic events such as drought, observational evidence suggests that the synchrony of geese migration and Carex phenology could not be maintained without human interventions, imposing a great risk of food shortage during the wintering period. Consequently, the current conservation priority in this Ramsar site is shifted to wet meadow improvement to ensure optimal food quality. Understanding the food preferences of wintering geese is the key for effective wet meadow management. As the growth stage and nutrient level of food plants are the decisive factors influencing the diet selection of herbivores, in this study, we sampled the preferred food items by tracking the foraging paths of the Greater White-fronted Goose (n = 84) and Bean Goose (n = 34) to quantify the “foraging window” in terms of plant height,protein level, and energy content. Further, we established relationships between the above three variables of Carex based on in-situ measurements. The results show that the geese prefer plants with height ranging from 2.4 to 25.0 cm, with protein content from 13.9 to 25.2 %, and energy content from 1440.0 to 1813.6 KJ/100 g. While plant energy content increases with height, the height-protein level relationship is negative. The opposite growth curves signify a conservation challenge to maintain the delicate balance between the quantity and quality requirements of wintering geese. Carex meadow management, such as mowing, should focus on optimizing the timing of action to maximize energy supply while maintaining the right protein level for the long-term fitness, reproduction and survival of the birds.

A bio-based strategy for sustainable olive performance under water deficit conditions

Olea europaea L., olive tree, has a very important role in the economy of the Mediterranean region, where 93 % of the world's olive oil is produced. This species is well adapted to the environmental conditions of this area, but the increase in the frequency of extreme climatic events, due to climate change, is affecting the yield and quality of olive products. The use of eco-friendly solutions, like plant-beneficial microorganisms, can be a sustainable agronomic tool to improve plant tolerance to stress and boost agricultural production. We aim to unravel the effects of the pre-treatment of olive plants with the bacterium Pseudomonas reactans Ph3R3 on drought tolerance. Young potted olive plants were treated with a solution of P. reactans (soil inoculation) or with distilled water, and then exposed to two watering conditions (well-watered or water deficit). Plant water status, photosynthesis, pigments, carbohydrates, oxidative stress biomarkers, and total antioxidant capacity were evaluated 61 and 191 days after the beginning of the watering treatments. The pre-treatment with P. reactans improved leaf dry biomass production, and soil C and N availability. Moreover, under drought conditions, P. reactans increased leaf water availability, N levels, and the intercellular CO2, leading to improved net CO2 assimilation rate and carbohydrates production. Also, P. reactans activated stress protective strategies (total antioxidant capacity) that helped to control oxidative stress. These data demonstrated that the benefits triggered by P. reactans pre-treatment promoted olive performance and tolerance to drought and could be a promising strategy to improve olive culture sustainability.

The effect of climate change on crop yield anomaly in Europe

AbstractEvery human needs sufficient, safe, and nutritious food to live an active and healthy life. Climate change, especially more frequent extreme climate events, increasingly affects crop yields. Unpredictable losses in crop production pose a high risk to our food systems, thus threatening agricultural producers and consumers worldwide. This study analyzes the effect of climate change on wheat, maize, and barley yield anomalies for the major producing countries in the EU. Applying the Random Forest machine learning model, climate indicators, comprising mean and extreme climate conditions, explain 18% of crop yield anomalies across crops and countries from 1961 to 2020. The predictive power of climate indicators is highest for maize with 24%, followed by barley with 22% and wheat with 3%. However, mean climate indicators are stronger associated with crop yield anomalies than extreme climate indicators. Temperature‐ and soil moisture–related indicators are more important than precipitation‐related indicators. The results reveal a nonlinear relationship between climate indicators and crop yields. Thresholds lead to a sharp decrease or increase in crop yields. Under SSP3‐7.0, rising temperatures tend to increase crop yield losses until 2100 without effective adaptation measures. The impact of changing soil moisture–related indicators depends on crop and country. Our study discusses adaptation strategies but also emphasizes the relevance of global mitigation efforts to reduce climate‐induced crop risk and to improve our food system's resilience.

Investigating the long-term response of plateau vegetation productivity to extreme climate: insights from a case study in Qinghai Province, China.

Over the past three decades, there has been a significant global climate change characterized by an increase in the intensity and frequency of extreme climate events. The vegetation status in Qinghai Province has undergone substantial changes, which are more pronounced than other regions in the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau. However, a clear understanding of the response characteristics of plateau vegetation to extreme climate events is currently lacking. In this study, we investigated the response of net primary productivity (NPP) to different forms of extreme climate events across regions characterized by varying levels of aridity and elevation gradients. Specifically, we observed a significant increase in NPP in relatively arid regions. Our findings indicate that, in relatively arid regions, single episodes of high-intensity precipitation have a pronounced positive effect (higher correlation) on NPP. Furthermore, in high-elevation regions (4000-6000m), both the intensity and frequency of precipitation events are crucial factors for the increase in regional NPP. However, continuous precipitation can have significant negative impacts on certain areas within relatively wet regions. Regarding temperature, a reduction in the number of frost days within a year has been shown to lead to a significant increase in NPP in arid regions. This reduction allows vegetation growth rate to increase in regions where it was limited by low temperatures. Vegetation conditions in drought-poor regions are expected to continue to improve as extreme precipitation intensifies and extreme low-temperature events decrease.

Exponential increases in high-temperature extremes in North America

Global warming in the 21st century will alter the frequency of extreme climatic events, such as high-temperature anomalies and “heat waves”. Observations of extreme high temperatures during recent decades have detected upward trends in their frequency of occurrence, and recent state-of-the-art Global Climate Models (GCMs), e.g., Climate Model Intercomparison Projects (CMIPs), notably CMIP5 and CMIP6, have predicted acceleration of temperature trends and high-temperature events by 2100 under projected greenhouse-gas emission scenarios. Hence, the 21st century is expected to experience substantial shifts in the occurrence of extreme events, where present-day, extreme-but-rare high-temperature events will become common during the summer months. The increasing frequency of extreme heat may affect the health and resiliency of social, biological, and infrastructure systems in many regions worldwide, underscoring the need for accurate and reliable long-term assessments of climatic change across global and regional scales. So far, many investigations of high-temperature extremes have been carried out under end-point scenarios, e.g., by comparing GCM-projected changes in the frequency of high-temperature extremes expected in the late 21st century to the late 20th century. In this study, we use extreme value theory and decades of observations of high-temperature extremes at thousands of meteorological stations across North America to investigate continuous shifts in the frequency of extreme high-temperature events due to projected local warming trends. We find that the odds of exceedance of 50-year extreme high-temperature events increases exponentially with increases in mean local temperature. At a majority of the stations studied here, a local mean temperature increase of 0.5–1 ^{circ }C can double the odds of exceedance of 50-year extreme high-temperature events. Based on time-dependent temperature projections, the odds of exceedance of 50-year extreme high-temperature events doubles approximately every 20 years (or sooner) for sim 96% of the stations. Moreover, we find that, for sim 80% of the stations in North America, investigated here, the 50-year extreme high-temperature events will be exceeded annually before 2100.

How Can Girls’ Education and Family Planning Improve Community Resilience to Climate Change in the Sahel?

Population growth and climate change are currently the two greatest threats to food security in the Sahel region of Africa. The population of the countries that make up the Sahel is projected to nearly double by 2050, from 506 million to 912 million. Paired with the expected rise in temperature and increased frequency of extreme climatic events, these numbers could quickly overwhelm relief efforts. Strengthening human capital and economic stability are critical to prevent catastrophic suffering. This article recommends two evidence-based approaches that expand women’s autonomy and support their income-earning potential while building resilience to climate change. The first recommendation, would be greater investments in adolescent girls’ education and autonomy, including efforts to delay marriage and childbearing. The second calls for an improvement in the availability and quality of reproductive health services, with a special focus on voluntary family planning. These interventions can increase incomes, reproductive autonomy and gender equity which build community resilience and adaptability to climate change.