Uncovering the evolution of ozone pollution in China: A spatiotemporal characteristics reconstruction from 1980 to 2021

Abstract

Ozone pollution emerged as a significant environmental concern in China in recent years. Given the enduring impact of anthropogenic activities on the atmosphere, understanding the long-term evolutionary patterns of ozone pollution is crucial for effective pollution mitigation strategies. However, there have been limited studies to reconstruct spatiotemporal continuity ozone concentrations in China since 1980. In this research, monthly MDA8 ozone concentrations from 1980 to 2021 were first estimated by reproducing the numerical relations between ozone pollution and the atmospheric environment based on a machine learning approach. The verification results from temporal, spatial, and sample-based cross-validation methods demonstrated the model performance in simulating MDA8 ozone concentration spatiotemporally, with correlation coefficients (R) ranging from 0.76 to 0.79, mean square error (RMSE) ranging from 22.72 μg·m−3 to 24.28 μg·m−3, and mean absolute error (MAE) ranging from 17.06 μg·m−3 to 18.25 μg·m−3. The evolution of ozone pollution in China can be delineated into two phases, characterized by an increasing trend since 2001, coinciding with significant rises in average annual temperature and hot weather frequency over the past four decades. The 90th percentile of ozone concentration from 2001 to 2021 increased by 1.79% compared to the period from 1980 to 2001. Notably, ozone episodes have expanded beyond summer months, partly due to global warming and frequent extreme climate events, contributing to an annual temperature increase of 0.03 °C. Despite several pollutant emission restrictions since 2013, the ozone pollution in China has persisted due to the increased emissions of VOCs. Spatially, severe ozone pollution hotspots are evident in Xinjiang province, the Jing-Jin-Ji urban agglomeration, and Northeast China, with notable increases observed in Tibet and the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area over the past six years. Moreover, the influence factors were identified by the average reduction of node impurity calculation. The evolution of ozone pollution was inextricably linked to solar radiation and atmospheric temperature, which played pivotal positive roles in ozone formation. Whilst, there is significant heterogeneity in the effect of meteorological conditions on ozone concentrations due to the disparity between land and oceanic climates.