Frequency-magnitude Distribution Research Articles

Preliminary Magnitude of Completeness Quantification of Improved BMKG Catalog (2008-2016) in Indonesian Region

We present a magnitude of completeness (Mc) quantification based on BMKG improved earthquake catalog which generated from Ina-TEWS seismograph network. The Mc quantification can help us determine the lowest magnitude which can be recorded perfectly as a function of space and time. We use the BMKG improved earthquake catalog from 2008 to 2016 which has been converted to moment magnitude (Mw) and declustered. The value of Mc is computed by determining the initial point of deviation patterns in Frequency Magnitude Distribution (FMD) chart following the Gutenberg-Richter equations. In the next step, we calculate the temporal variation of Mc and b-value using maximum likelihood method annually. We found that the Mc value is decreasing and produced a varying b-value. It indicates that the development of seismograph network from 2008 to 2016 can affect the value of Mc although it is not significant. We analyze temporal variation of Mc value, and correlate it with the spatial distribution of seismograph in Indonesia. The spatial distribution of seismograph installation shows that the western part of Indonesia has more dense seismograph compared to the eastern region. However, the eastern part of Indonesia has a high level of seismicity compared to the western region. Based upon the results, additional seismograph installation in the eastern part of Indonesia should be taken into consideration.

Optimising 4-D surface change detection: an approach for capturing rockfall magnitude–frequency

Abstract. We present a monitoring technique tailored to analysing change from near-continuously collected, high-resolution 3-D data. Our aim is to fully characterise geomorphological change typified by an event magnitude–frequency relationship that adheres to an inverse power law or similar. While recent advances in monitoring have enabled changes in volume across more than 7 orders of magnitude to be captured, event frequency is commonly assumed to be interchangeable with the time-averaged event numbers between successive surveys. Where events coincide, or coalesce, or where the mechanisms driving change are not spatially independent, apparent event frequency must be partially determined by survey interval.The data reported have been obtained from a permanently installed terrestrial laser scanner, which permits an increased frequency of surveys. Surveying from a single position raises challenges, given the single viewpoint onto a complex surface and the need for computational efficiency associated with handling a large time series of 3-D data. A workflow is presented that optimises the detection of change by filtering and aligning scans to improve repeatability. An adaptation of the M3C2 algorithm is used to detect 3-D change to overcome data inconsistencies between scans. Individual rockfall geometries are then extracted and the associated volumetric errors modelled. The utility of this approach is demonstrated using a dataset of ∼ 9 × 103 surveys acquired at ∼ 1 h intervals over 10 months. The magnitude–frequency distribution of rockfall volumes generated is shown to be sensitive to monitoring frequency. Using a 1 h interval between surveys, rather than 30 days, the volume contribution from small (< 0.1 m3) rockfalls increases from 67 to 98 % of the total, and the number of individual rockfalls observed increases by over 3 orders of magnitude. High-frequency monitoring therefore holds considerable implications for magnitude–frequency derivatives, such as hazard return intervals and erosion rates. As such, while high-frequency monitoring has potential to describe short-term controls on geomorphological change and more realistic magnitude–frequency relationships, the assessment of longer-term erosion rates may be more suited to less-frequent data collection with lower accumulative errors.

Hydraulic fracturing volume is associated with induced earthquake productivity in the Duvernay play.

A sharp increase in the frequency of earthquakes near Fox Creek, Alberta, began in December 2013 in response to hydraulic fracturing. Using a hydraulic fracturing database, we explore relationships between injection parameters and seismicity response. We show that induced earthquakes are associated with completions that used larger injection volumes (104 to 105 cubic meters) and that seismic productivity scales linearly with injection volume. Injection pressure and rate have an insignificant association with seismic response. Further findings suggest that geological factors play a prominent role in seismic productivity, as evidenced by spatial correlations. Together, volume and geological factors account for ~96% of the variability in the induced earthquake rate near Fox Creek. This result is quantified by a seismogenic index-modified frequency-magnitude distribution, providing a framework to forecast induced seismicity.

Seismicity Study of Botswana from 1966 to 2012

The history of Botswana’s major seismic events has been initiated by two earthquakes that occurred on the 11th of September and 11th of October 1952 with ML Richter magnitudes of 6.1 and 6.7, respectively, in the Okavango Delta Region (ODR). Not much is known and well documented about the seismicity of a larger coverage of Botswana primarily because over the years, local seismic stations were biased to the north-western part of Botswana, to monitor the more seismogenic ODR. The objective of this study is to use data from the International Seismological Centre (ISC) bulletin for the period 1966-2012 to estimate the relative size distribution of seismic events (b-value), the rate of seismic activity (a-value), and associated stress condition prevailing in Botswana to assist in the quest of hazard mitigation. This study shows that micro-seismic activities of magnitude ranging from 1.3 to 5.7 are distributed not only on the northern part of Botswana, but also in other parts of the country such as the Southern (including Kweneng East and West), Central and Eastern Botswana. Based on 327 events extracted from data compiled by the ISC, the frequency-magnitude distribution (FMD) of earthquakes in Botswana from 1966 to 2012 was estimated with b-value and a-value for the entire catalogue found to be 1.2 and 6.3, respectively, implying a region of low stress dominated by small to moderate events. The minimum completeness magnitude (MC), a value that indicates the lowest magnitude above which all seismic events are reliably recorded was found to be 3.8. From this analysis, annual probabilities of occurrence for M4 and M5 events were found to be 67.2% and 4.3%, respectively, while M6 or larger event has an annual probability of 0.3%.

Analysis of the 2012 Ahar-Varzeghan (Iran) seismic sequence: Insights from statistical and stress transfer modeling

Abstract The 2012 Ahar-Varzeghan (Northwestern Iran) earthquake doublet and its following seismic sequence are analyzed in this paper. First, it is examined the time-varying statistical characteristics of seismic activity since the occurrence of the doublet (two large events with Mw = 6.4 and 6.2) that initiated the sequence on 11 August 2012. A power law magnitude-frequency distribution (1.9 ≤ M ≤ 6.4) is obtained, with relatively low b-values for the complete series indicating the existence of relatively large magnitudes and high-stress level in the area. The Omori-Utsu model of the aftershock population decay with time shows a moderate decrease in activity rate. An epidemic-type aftershock sequence model that separates background seismicity from triggered aftershocks is then used to describe the temporal evolution of the seismicity during the period following the occurrence of the doublet. Results for the entire series (above cutoff magnitude Mc = 1.9) indicate a relatively low productivity related to the earthquake-earthquake triggering. Indeed, the majority of these events seems to be generated by underlying transient or aseismic processes, which might be added to the tectonic loading stress. The proportion of aftershock events significantly increases when the analysis is limited to larger events (M ≥ 3.0) suggesting that the triggered large aftershocks entail a substantial portion of the energy released. In order to analyze the spatial distribution of the sequence, new source models are proposed for the two main shocks. For the first shock, the coseismic slip distribution is constrained by the available data on surface ruptures. A Coulomb failure stress transfer model produced by the first event along optimally-oriented planes allows identifying the areas with positive stress loads where the rupture of the subsequent aftershocks may have occurred. The positive ∆ CFS areas are compared for two depth intervals: 3–10 km and 15–22 km overlapping over 350 relocated hypocenters, giving arguments supporting the interpretation of ∆ CFS as a main mechanism for aftershock triggering in deeper zones of the upper crust.

The effect of salt in dilatant faults on rates and magnitudes of induced seismicity – first results building on the geological setting of the Groningen Rotliegend reservoirs

AbstractThe presence of salt in dilatant normal faults may have a strong influence on fault mechanics in the Groningen field and on the related induced seismicity. At present, little is known of the structure of these fault zones. This study starts with the geological evolution of the Groningen area, where, during tectonic faulting, rock salt may have migrated downwards into dilatant faults. These fault zones therefore may contain inclusions of rock salt. Because of its rate-dependent mechanical properties, the presence of salt in a fault may introduce a loading-rate dependency into fault movement and affect the distribution of magnitudes of seismic events. We present a first-look study showing how these processes can be investigated using a combination of analogue and numerical modelling. Full scaling of the models and quantification of implications for induced seismicity in Groningen require further, more detailed studies: an understanding of fault zone structure in the Groningen field is required for improved predictions of induced seismicity. The analogue experiments are based on a simplified stratigraphy of the Groningen area, where it is generally thought that most of the Rotliegend faulting has taken place in the Jurassic, after deposition of the Zechstein. This suggests that, at the time of faulting, the sulphates were already transformed into brittle anhydrite. If these layers were sufficiently brittle to fault in a dilatant fashion, rock salt was able to flow downwards into the dilatant fractures. To test this hypothesis, we use sandbox experiments where we combine cohesive powder as analogue for brittle anhydrites and carbonates with viscous salt analogues to explore the developing fault geometry and the resulting distribution of salt in the faults. Using the observations from analogue models as input, numerical models investigate the stick-slip behaviour of fault zones containing ductile material qualitatively with the discrete element method (DEM). Results show that the DEM approach is suitable for modelling the seismicity of faults containing salt. The stick-slip motion of the fault becomes dependent on shear loading rate with a modification of the frequency–magnitude distribution of the generated seismic events.

Spatial Variation of Seismic B-Values of the Empirical Law of the Magnitude-Frequency Distribution from a Bayesian Approach Based On Spline (B-Spline) Function in the North Anatolian Fault Zone, North of Turkey

In this study, A Bayesian approach based on Spline (B-spline) function is used to estimate the spatial variations of the seismic b-values of the empirical law (G-R law) in the North Anatolian Fault Zone (NAFZ), North of Turkey. B-spline function method developed for estimation and interpolation of b-values. Spatial variations in b-values are known to reflect the stress field and can be used in earthquake hazard analysis. We proposed that b-values combined with seismicity and tectonic background. β=b*ln(10) function (the derivation of the G-R law) based on a Bayesian approach is used to estimate the b values and their standard deviations. A homogeneous instrumental catalog is used during the period 1900-2017. We divided into ten different seismic source regions based on epicenter distribution, tectonic, seismicity, faults in NAFZ. Three historical earthquakes (1343, MS = 7. 5, 1766, Ms=7.3, 1894, MS = 7. 0) are included in region 2 (Marmara Sea (Tekirdağ-Merkez-Kumburgaz-Çmarcik Basins)) where a large earthquake is expected in the near future because of a large earthquake hasn’t been observed for the instrumental period. The spatial variations in ten different seismogenic regions are estimated in NAFZ. In accordance with estimates, b-values are changed between 0.52±0.07 and 0.86±0.13. The high b values are estimated the Southern Branch of NAFZ (Edremit Fault Zones, Yenice-Gönen, Mustafa Kemal Paşa, Ulubat Faults) region, so it is related low stress. The low b values are estimated between Tokat-Erzincan region, so it is related high stress. The maps of 2D and 3D spatial variations (2D contour maps, classed post maps (a group the data into discrete classes), image maps (raster maps based on grid files), 3D wireframe (three-dimensional representations of grid files) and 3D surface) are plotted to the b-values. The spatial variations b-values can be used earthquake hazard analysis for NAFZ.

Seismic and Aseismic Moment Budget and Implication for the Seismic Potential of the Parkfield Segment of the San Andreas Fault

This study explores methods to assess the seismic potential of a fault based on geodetic measurements, geological information of fault‐slip rate, and seismicity data. The methods are applied to the Parkfield section along the San Andreas fault (SAF) at the transition zone between the SAF creeping segment in the north and the locked section of Cholame to the south, where M_w ∼6 earthquakes occurred every 24.5 yrs on average since the 1857 M_w 7.7 Fort Tejon earthquake. We compare the moment released by the known earthquakes and associated postseismic deformation with the moment deficit accumulated during the interseismic period derived from geodetic measurement of interseismic strain. We find that the recurring M_w 6 earthquakes are insufficient to balance the slip budget. We discuss and evaluate various possible scenarios which might account for the residual moment deficit and implications of the possible magnitude and return period of M_w >6 earthquakes on that fault segment. The most likely explanation is that this fault segment hosts M_w 6.5–7.5 earthquakes, with a return period of 140–300 yrs. Such events could happen as independent earthquakes in conjunction with ruptures of the Carrizo plain segment of the SAF. We show how the results from our analysis can be formally incorporated in probabilistic seismic hazard assessment assuming various magnitude–frequency distribution and renewal time models.

2014 Mainshock-Aftershock Activity Versus Earthquake Swarms in West Bohemia, Czech Republic

A singular sequence of three episodes of $$M_{L}$$ 3.5, 4.4 and 3.6 mainshock-aftershock occurred in the West Bohemia/Vogtland earthquake-swarm region during 2014. We analysed this activity using the WEBNET data and compared it with the swarms of 1997, 2000, 2008 and 2011 from the perspective of cumulative seismic moment, statistical characteristics, space-time distribution of events, and prevailing focal mechanisms. For this purpose, we improved the scaling relation between seismic moment $$M_{0}$$ and local magnitude $$M_{L}$$ by WEBNET. The total seismic moment released during 2014 episodes ( $$M_{0\mathrm{tot}}\approx 1.58\times 10^{15}$$ Nm) corresponded to a single $$M_{L}4.6+$$ event and was comparable to $$M_{0\mathrm{tot}}$$ of the swarms of 2000, 2008 and 2011. We inferred that the $$M_{L}4.8$$ earthquake is the maximum expected event in Nový Kostel (NK), the main focal zone. Despite the different character of the 2014 sequence and the earthquake swarms, the magnitude-frequency distributions (MFDs) show the b-values $$\approx$$ 1 and probability density functions (PDFs) of the interevent times indicate the similar event rate of the individual swarms and 2014 activity. Only the a-value (event-productivity) in the MFD of the 2014 sequence is significantly lower than those of the swarms. A notable finding is a significant acceleration of the seismic moment release in each subsequent activity starting from the 2000 swarm to the 2014 sequence, which may indicate an alteration from the swarm-like to the mainshocks-aftershock character of the seismicity. The three mainshocks are located on a newly activated fault segment/asperity (D in out notation) of the NK zone situated in the transition area among fault segments A, B, C, which hosted the 2000, 2008 and 2011 swarms. The segment D appears to be predisposed to an oblique-thrust faulting while strike-slip faulting is typical of segments A, B and C. In conclusion, we propose a basic segment scheme of the NK zone which should be improved gradually.

Integrating faults and past earthquakes into a probabilistic seismic hazard model for peninsular Italy

Abstract. Italy is one of the most seismically active countries in Europe. Moderate to strong earthquakes, with magnitudes of up to ∼ 7, have been historically recorded for many active faults. Currently, probabilistic seismic hazard assessments in Italy are mainly based on area source models, in which seismicity is modelled using a number of seismotectonic zones and the occurrence of earthquakes is assumed uniform. However, in the past decade, efforts have increasingly been directed towards using fault sources in seismic hazard models to obtain more detailed and potentially more realistic patterns of ground motion. In our model, we used two categories of earthquake sources. The first involves active faults, and using geological slip rates to quantify the seismic activity rate. We produced an inventory of all fault sources with details of their geometric, kinematic, and energetic properties. The associated parameters were used to compute the total seismic moment rate of each fault. We evaluated the magnitude–frequency distribution (MFD) of each fault source using two models: a characteristic Gaussian model centred at the maximum magnitude and a truncated Gutenberg–Richter model. The second earthquake source category involves grid-point seismicity, with a fixed-radius smoothed approach and a historical catalogue were used to evaluate seismic activity. Under the assumption that deformation is concentrated along faults, we combined the MFD derived from the geometry and slip rates of active faults with the MFD from the spatially smoothed earthquake sources and assumed that the smoothed seismic activity in the vicinity of an active fault gradually decreases by a fault-size-driven factor. Additionally, we computed horizontal peak ground acceleration (PGA) maps for return periods of 475 and 2475 years. Although the ranges and gross spatial distributions of the expected accelerations obtained here are comparable to those obtained through methods involving seismic catalogues and classical zonation models, the spatial pattern of the hazard maps obtained with our model is far more detailed. Our model is characterized by areas that are more hazardous and that correspond to mapped active faults, while previous models yield expected accelerations that are almost uniformly distributed across large regions. In addition, we conducted sensitivity tests to determine the impact on the hazard results of the earthquake rates derived from two MFD models for faults and to determine the relative contributions of faults versus distributed seismic activity. We believe that our model represents advancements in terms of the input data (quantity and quality) and methodology used in the field of fault-based regional seismic hazard modelling in Italy.

When probabilistic seismic hazard climbs volcanoes: the Mt. Etna case, Italy – Part 1: Model components for sources parameterization

Abstract. The volcanic region of Mt. Etna (Sicily, Italy) represents a perfect lab for testing innovative approaches to seismic hazard assessment. This is largely due to the long record of historical and recent observations of seismic and tectonic phenomena, the high quality of various geophysical monitoring and particularly the rapid geodynamics clearly demonstrate some seismotectonic processes. We present here the model components and the procedures adopted for defining seismic sources to be used in a new generation of probabilistic seismic hazard assessment (PSHA), the first results and maps of which are presented in a companion paper, Peruzza et al. (2017). The sources include, with increasing complexity, seismic zones, individual faults and gridded point sources that are obtained by integrating geological field data with long and short earthquake datasets (the historical macroseismic catalogue, which covers about 3 centuries, and a high-quality instrumental location database for the last decades). The analysis of the frequency–magnitude distribution identifies two main fault systems within the volcanic complex featuring different seismic rates that are controlled essentially by volcano-tectonic processes. We discuss the variability of the mean occurrence times of major earthquakes along the main Etnean faults by using an historical approach and a purely geologic method. We derive a magnitude–size scaling relationship specifically for this volcanic area, which has been implemented into a recently developed software tool – FiSH (Pace et al., 2016) – that we use to calculate the characteristic magnitudes and the related mean recurrence times expected for each fault. Results suggest that for the Mt. Etna area, the traditional assumptions of uniform and Poissonian seismicity can be relaxed; a time-dependent fault-based modeling, joined with a 3-D imaging of volcano-tectonic sources depicted by the recent instrumental seismicity, can therefore be implemented in PSHA maps. They can be relevant for the retrofitting of the existing building stock and for driving risk reduction interventions. These analyses do not account for regional M > 6 seismogenic sources which dominate the hazard over long return times (≥ 500 years).

A 2D Model of Hydraulic Fracturing, Damage and Microseismicity

We present a model for hydraulic fracturing and damage of low-permeable rock. It computes the intermittent propagation of rock damage, microseismic event locations, microseismic frequency–magnitude distributions, stimulated rock volume and the injection pressure. The model uses a regular 2D grid and is based on ideas from invasion percolation. All damaged and connected cells during a time step constitute a microseismic event, where the size of the event is the number of cells in the cluster. The magnitude of the event is the $$\log _{10}$$ of the event size. The model produces events with a magnitude–frequency distribution having a b value that is approximately 0.8. The model is studied with respect to the physical parameters: permeability of damaged rock and the rock strength. “High” permeabilities of the damaged rock give the same b value $$\approx 0.8$$ , but “moderate” permeabilities give higher b values. Another difference is that “high” permeabilities produce a percolation-like fracture network, while “moderate” permeabilities result in damage zones that expand circularly away from the injection point. In the latter case of “moderate” permeabilities, the injection pressure increases substantially beyond the fracturing level. The rock strength and the time step do not change the observed b value of the model for moderate changes.

Seismic behaviour of mountain belts controlled by plate convergence rate

The relative contribution of tectonic and kinematic processes to seismic behaviour of mountain belts is still controversial. To understand the partitioning between these processes we developed a model that simulates both tectonic and seismic processes in a continental collision setting. These 2D seismo-thermo-mechanical (STM) models obtain a Gutenberg–Richter frequency–magnitude distribution due to spontaneous events occurring throughout the orogen. Our simulations suggest that both the corresponding slope (b value) and maximum earthquake magnitude (MWmax) correlate linearly with plate convergence rate. By analyzing 1D rheological profiles and isotherm depths we demonstrate that plate convergence rate controls the brittle strength through a rheological feedback with temperature and strain rate. Faster convergence leads to cooler temperatures and also results in more larger seismogenic domains, thereby increasing both MWmax and the relative number of large earthquakes (decreasing b value). This mechanism also predicts a more seismogenic lower crust, which is confirmed by a transition from uni- to bi-modal hypocentre depth distributions in our models. This transition and a linear relation between convergence rate and b value and MWmax is supported by our comparison of earthquakes recorded across the Alps, Apennines, Zagros and Himalaya. These results imply that deformation in the Alps occurs in a more ductile manner compared to the Himalayas, thereby reducing its seismic hazard. Furthermore, a second set of experiments with higher temperature and different orogenic architecture shows the same linear relation with convergence rate, suggesting that large-scale tectonic structure plays a subordinate role. We thus propose that plate convergence rate, which also controls the average differential stress of the orogen and its linear relation to the b value, is the first-order parameter controlling seismic hazard of mountain belts.

Probabilistic seismic hazard assessment for South-Eastern France

The accurate evaluation and appropriate treatment of uncertainties is of primary importance in modern probabilistic seismic hazard assessment (PSHA). One of the objectives of the SIGMA project was to establish a framework to improve knowledge and data on two target regions characterized by low-to-moderate seismic activity. In this paper, for South-Eastern France, we present the final PSHA performed within the SIGMA project. A new earthquake catalogue for France covering instrumental and historical periods was used for the calculation of the magnitude-frequency distributions. The hazard model incorporates area sources, smoothed seismicity and a 3D faults model. A set of recently developed ground motion prediction equations (GMPEs) from global and regional data, evaluated as adequately representing the ground motion characteristics in the region, was used to calculate the hazard. The magnitude-frequency distributions, maximum magnitude, faults slip rate and style-of-faulting are considered as additional source of epistemic uncertainties. The hazard results for generic rock condition (Vs30 = 800 m/s) are displayed for 20 sites in terms of uniform hazard spectra at two return periods (475 years and 10,000 years). The contributions of the epistemic uncertainties in the ground motion characterizations and in the seismic source characterization to the total hazard uncertainties are analyzed. Finally, we compare the results with existing models developed at national scale in the framework of the first generation of models supporting the Eurocode 8 enforcement, (MEDD 2002 and AFPS06) and at the European scale (within the SHARE project), highlighting significant discrepancies at short return periods.

Statistical Features of the 2010 Beni-Ilmane, Algeria, Aftershock Sequence

The aftershock sequence of the 2010 Beni-Ilmane (M W 5.5) earthquake is studied in depth to analyze the spatial and temporal variability of seismicity parameters of the relationships modeling the sequence. The b value of the frequency–magnitude distribution is examined rigorously. A threshold magnitude of completeness equal to 2.1, using the maximum curvature procedure or the changing point algorithm, and a b value equal to 0.96 ± 0.03 have been obtained for the entire sequence. Two clusters have been identified and characterized by their faulting type, exhibiting b values equal to 0.99 ± 0.05 and 1.04 ± 0.05. Additionally, the temporal decay of the aftershock sequence was examined using a stochastic point process. The analysis was done through the restricted epidemic-type aftershock sequence (RETAS) stochastic model, which allows the possibility to recognize the prevailing clustering pattern of the relaxation process in the examined area. The analysis selected the epidemic-type aftershock sequence (ETAS) model to offer the most appropriate description of the temporal distribution, which presumes that all events in the sequence can cause secondary aftershocks. Finally, the fractal dimensions are estimated using the integral correlation. The obtained D 2 values are 2.15 ± 0.01, 2.23 ± 0.01 and 2.17 ± 0.02 for the entire sequence, and for the first and second cluster, respectively. An analysis of the temporal evolution of the fractal dimensions D −2, D 0, D 2 and the spectral slope has been also performed to derive and characterize the different clusters included in the sequence.

Global regionalized seismicity in view of Non-Extensive Statistical Physics

In the present work we study the distribution of Earth’s shallow seismicity on different seismic zones, as occurred from 1981 to 2011 and extracted from the Centroid Moment Tensor (CMT) catalog. Our analysis is based on the subdivision of the Earth’s surface into seismic zones that are homogeneous with regards to seismic activity and orientation of the predominant stress field. For this, we use the Flinn–Engdahl regionalization (FE) (Flinn and Engdahl, 1965), which consists of fifty seismic zones as modified by Lombardi and Marzocchi (2007). The latter authors grouped the 50 FE zones into larger tectonically homogeneous ones, utilizing the cumulative moment tensor method, resulting into thirty-nine seismic zones. In each one of these seismic zones we study the distribution of seismicity in terms of the frequency–magnitude distribution and the inter-event time distribution between successive earthquakes, a task that is essential for hazard assessments and to better understand the global and regional geodynamics. In our analysis we use non-extensive statistical physics (NESP), which seems to be one of the most adequate and promising methodological tools for analyzing complex systems, such as the Earth’s seismicity, introducing the q-exponential formulation as the expression of probability distribution function that maximizes the Sq entropy as defined by Tsallis, (1988). The qE parameter is significantly greater than one for all the seismic regions analyzed with value range from 1.294 to 1.504, indicating that magnitude correlations are particularly strong. Furthermore, the qT parameter shows some temporal correlations but variations with cut-off magnitude show greater temporal correlations when the smaller magnitude earthquakes are included. The qT for earthquakes with magnitude greater than 5 takes values from 1.043 to 1.353 and as we increase the cut-off magnitude to 5.5 and 6 the qT value ranges from 1.001 to 1.242 and from 1.001 to 1.181 respectively, presenting a significant decrease. Our findings support the ideas of universality within the Tsallis approach to describe Earth’s seismicity and present strong evidence ontemporal clustering and long-range correlations of seismicity in each of the tectonic zonesanalyzed.

Methodology for earthquake rupture rate estimates of fault networks: example for the western Corinth rift, Greece

Abstract. Modeling the seismic potential of active faults is a fundamental step of probabilistic seismic hazard assessment (PSHA). An accurate estimation of the rate of earthquakes on the faults is necessary in order to obtain the probability of exceedance of a given ground motion. Most PSHA studies consider faults as independent structures and neglect the possibility of multiple faults or fault segments rupturing simultaneously (fault-to-fault, FtF, ruptures). The Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast version 3 (UCERF-3) model takes into account this possibility by considering a system-level approach rather than an individual-fault-level approach using the geological, seismological and geodetical information to invert the earthquake rates. In many places of the world seismological and geodetical information along fault networks is often not well constrained. There is therefore a need to propose a methodology relying on geological information alone to compute earthquake rates of the faults in the network. In the proposed methodology, a simple distance criteria is used to define FtF ruptures and consider single faults or FtF ruptures as an aleatory uncertainty, similarly to UCERF-3. Rates of earthquakes on faults are then computed following two constraints: the magnitude frequency distribution (MFD) of earthquakes in the fault system as a whole must follow an a priori chosen shape and the rate of earthquakes on each fault is determined by the specific slip rate of each segment depending on the possible FtF ruptures. The modeled earthquake rates are then compared to the available independent data (geodetical, seismological and paleoseismological data) in order to weight different hypothesis explored in a logic tree.The methodology is tested on the western Corinth rift (WCR), Greece, where recent advancements have been made in the understanding of the geological slip rates of the complex network of normal faults which are accommodating the ∼ 15 mm yr−1 north–south extension. Modeling results show that geological, seismological and paleoseismological rates of earthquakes cannot be reconciled with only single-fault-rupture scenarios and require hypothesizing a large spectrum of possible FtF rupture sets. In order to fit the imposed regional Gutenberg–Richter (GR) MFD target, some of the slip along certain faults needs to be accommodated either with interseismic creep or as post-seismic processes. Furthermore, computed individual faults' MFDs differ depending on the position of each fault in the system and the possible FtF ruptures associated with the fault. Finally, a comparison of modeled earthquake rupture rates with those deduced from the regional and local earthquake catalog statistics and local paleoseismological data indicates a better fit with the FtF rupture set constructed with a distance criteria based on 5 km rather than 3 km, suggesting a high connectivity of faults in the WCR fault system.

Spatial variations of b-value and crustal stress in the Pyrenees

The seismicity in the Pyrenees is continuous and well surveyed since more than 20 years. We use the catalogue of seismicity between 1997 and 2013 to explore the spatial variations of the b-value, which corresponds to the slope of the frequency-magnitude distribution of the earthquakes. Especially, variations of the b-value characterise the state of stress of the crust, possibly highlighting a deficit of large earthquake occurrence. We estimate the differential crustal stress from the b-value using a relationship published by Scholz (Geophys Res Lett 42:1399–1402, 2015). We also estimate the stress drop variations by determining a power law which links the magnitude to the seismic source radius in the Pyrenees. We focus on the depth variations and we analyse vertical profiles of b-value, differential stress and stress drop, first in the whole Pyrenean belt, then in 10 subregions. The b-values are generally smaller than 1, except in the uppermost 3–5 km where the obtained high values could be linked to the presence of fluids. Downward, the b-values decrease slowly or remain constant until a depth of increase, which could correspond to the brittle-ductile limit of the crust. We propose that this depth and the regional and vertical variations of the b-values are related to the regional tectonic context and possibly to the density heterogeneities. We also suggest that stress drop and differential stress are linearly correlated and that the stress drop is at least 1.8‰ of the differential stress.

Temporal and spatial distributions of precursory seismicity rate changes in the Thailand-Laos-Myanmar border region: implication for upcoming hazardous earthquakes

To study the prospective areas of upcoming strong-to-major earthquakes, i.e., M w ≥ 6.0, a catalog of seismicity in the vicinity of the Thailand-Laos-Myanmar border region was generated and then investigated statistically. Based on the successful investigations of previous works, the seismicity rate change (Z value) technique was applied in this study. According to the completeness earthquake dataset, eight available case studies of strong-to-major earthquakes were investigated retrospectively. After iterative tests of the characteristic parameters concerning the number of earthquakes (N) and time window (T w ), the values of 50 and 1.2 years, respectively, were found to reveal an anomalous high Z-value peak (seismic quiescence) prior to the occurrence of six out of the eight major earthquake events studied. In addition, the location of the Z-value anomalies conformed fairly well to the epicenters of those earthquakes. Based on the investigation of correlation coefficient and the stochastic test of the Z values, the parameters used here (N = 50 events and T w = 1.2 years) were suitable to determine the precursory Z value and not random phenomena. The Z values of this study and the frequency-magnitude distribution b values of a previous work both highlighted the same prospective areas that might generate an upcoming major earthquake: (i) some areas in the northern part of Laos and (ii) the eastern part of Myanmar.

Shallow and intermediate depth earthquakes in the Hindu Kush region across the Afghan-Pakistan border

We investigated the spatio-temporal seismicity parameters of shallow (0–70km) and intermediate (70–300km) depth earthquakes in the Hindu Kush region, which is characterized by the occurrence of large earthquakes in a small zone of intense activity. By way of comparison, intermediate depth earthquakes dominate the Hindu Kush seismicity. Using a catalogue of 3820 earthquakes, we determined the various earthquake histograms, time-series plots, variations of frequency-magnitude distribution (b-value) and seismicity rate changes (z-value). Both time periods, encompassing pre- and post-1964 subsets of earthquakes, differ significantly in terms of reporting earthquakes, b- and z-value for shallow and intermediate seismicity. The b-values appear to be lower (1.07 and 0.90) for intermediate depth earthquakes than do the b-values produced by shallow earthquakes (1.32 and 1.06) using the pre- and post-1964 data sets. The three low b-value (<0.9) areas have been identified within the intermediate depth seismicity region of the Hindu Kush. The z-value maps show that the earthquakes with magnitude of 7.0 and above can only be seen in the intermediate depth earthquake maps.