Frequency Bias Index Research Articles

Inter-Comparison and Evaluation of Remote Sensing Precipitation Products over China from 2005 to 2013

Precipitation is a key aspect of the climate system. In this paper, the dependability of five satellite precipitation products (TRMM [Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission] 3BV42, PERSIANN [Precipitation Estimation from Remotely Sensed Information using Artificial Neural Networks] CDR, GSMaP [Global Satellite Mapping of Precipitation] RENALYSIS, CMORPH [Climate Prediction Center’s morphing technique] BLD and CMORPH_RAW) were compared with in situ measurements over China for the period of 2005 to 2013. To completely evaluate these precipitation products, the annual, seasonal and monthly precipitation averages were calculated. Overall, the Huaihe River and Qinlin mountains are shown to have heavy precipitation to the southeast and lighter precipitation to the northwest. The comparison results indicate that Gauge correction (CMORPH_BLD) improves the quality of the original satellite products (CMORPH_RAW), resulting in the higher correlation coefficient (CC), the low relative bias (BIAS) and root mean square error (RMSE). Over China, the GSMaP_RENALYSIS outperforms other products and shows the highest CC (0.91) and lowest RMSE (0.85 mm/day) and all products except for PERSIANN_CDR exhibit underestimation. GSMaP_RENALYSIS gives the highest of probability of detection (81%), critical success index (63%) and lowest false alarm ratio (36%) while TRMM3BV42 gives the highest of frequency bias index (1.00). Over Tibetan Plateau, CMORPH_RAW demonstrates the poorest performance with the biggest BIAS (4.2 mm/month) and lowest CC (0.22) in December 2013. GSMaP_RENALYSIS displays quite consistent with in situ measurements in summer. However, GSMaP_RENALYSIS and CMORPH_RAW underestimate precipitation over South China. CMORPH_BLD and TRMM3BV42 show consistent with high CC (>0.8) but relatively large RMSE in summer.

VALIDATION OF SATELLITE PRECIPITATION (TRMM 3B43) IN ECUADORIAN COASTAL PLAINS, ANDEAN HIGHLANDS AND AMAZONIAN RAINFOREST

Precipitation monitoring is of utmost importance for water resource management. However, in regions of complex terrain such as Ecuador, the high spatio-temporal precipitation variability and the scarcity of rain gauges, make difficult to obtain accurate estimations of precipitation. Remotely sensed estimated precipitation, such as the Multi-satellite Precipitation Analysis TRMM, can cope with this problem after a validation process, which must be representative in space and time. In this work we validate monthly estimates from TRMM 3B43 satellite precipitation (0.25° x 0.25° resolution), by using ground data from 14 rain gauges in Ecuador. The stations are located in the 3 most differentiated regions of the country: the Pacific coastal plains, the Andean highlands, and the Amazon rainforest. Time series, between 1998 – 2010, of imagery and rain gauges were compared using statistical error metrics such as bias, root mean square error, and Pearson correlation; and with detection indexes such as probability of detection, equitable threat score, false alarm rate and frequency bias index. The results showed that precipitation seasonality is well represented and TRMM 3B43 acceptably estimates the monthly precipitation in the three regions of the country. According to both, statistical error metrics and detection indexes, the coastal and Amazon regions are better estimated quantitatively than the Andean highlands. Additionally, it was found that there are better estimations for light precipitation rates. The present validation of TRMM 3B43 provides important results to support further studies on calibration and bias correction of precipitation in ungagged watershed basins.

VALIDATION OF SATELLITE PRECIPITATION (TRMM 3B43) IN ECUADORIAN COASTAL PLAINS, ANDEAN HIGHLANDS AND AMAZONIAN RAINFOREST

Abstract. Precipitation monitoring is of utmost importance for water resource management. However, in regions of complex terrain such as Ecuador, the high spatio-temporal precipitation variability and the scarcity of rain gauges, make difficult to obtain accurate estimations of precipitation. Remotely sensed estimated precipitation, such as the Multi-satellite Precipitation Analysis TRMM, can cope with this problem after a validation process, which must be representative in space and time. In this work we validate monthly estimates from TRMM 3B43 satellite precipitation (0.25° x 0.25° resolution), by using ground data from 14 rain gauges in Ecuador. The stations are located in the 3 most differentiated regions of the country: the Pacific coastal plains, the Andean highlands, and the Amazon rainforest. Time series, between 1998 – 2010, of imagery and rain gauges were compared using statistical error metrics such as bias, root mean square error, and Pearson correlation; and with detection indexes such as probability of detection, equitable threat score, false alarm rate and frequency bias index. The results showed that precipitation seasonality is well represented and TRMM 3B43 acceptably estimates the monthly precipitation in the three regions of the country. According to both, statistical error metrics and detection indexes, the coastal and Amazon regions are better estimated quantitatively than the Andean highlands. Additionally, it was found that there are better estimations for light precipitation rates. The present validation of TRMM 3B43 provides important results to support further studies on calibration and bias correction of precipitation in ungagged watershed basins.

Evaluation of the TMPA-3B42 precipitation product using a high-density rain gauge network over complex terrain in northeastern Iberia

The performance of the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) Multi-satellite Precipitation Analysis (TMPA)-3B42 version 7 product is assessed over north-eastern Iberia, a region with considerable topographical gradients and complexity. Precipitation characteristics from a dense network of 656 rain gauges, spanning the period from 1998 to 2009, are used to evaluate TMPA-3B42 estimates on a daily scale. A set of accuracy estimators, including the relative bias, mean absolute error (MAE), root mean square error (RMSE) and Spearman coefficient was used to evaluate the results. The assessment indicates that TMPA-3B42 product is capable of describing the seasonal characteristics of the observed precipitation over most of the study domain. In particular, TMPA-3B42 precipitation agrees well with in situ measurements, with MAE less than 2.5mm.day−1, RMSE of 6.4mm.day−1 and Spearman correlation coefficients generally above 0.6. TMPA-3B42 provides improved accuracies in winter and summer, whereas it performs much worse in spring and autumn. Spatially, the retrieval errors show a consistent trend, with a general overestimation in regions of low altitude and underestimation in regions of heterogeneous terrain. TMPA-3B42 generally performs well over inland areas, while showing less skill in the coastal regions. A set of skill metrics, including a false alarm ratio [FAR], frequency bias index [FBI], the probability of detection [POD] and threat score [TS], is also used to evaluate TMPA performance under different precipitation thresholds (1, 5, 10, 25 and 50mm.day−1). The results suggest that TMPA-3B42 retrievals perform well in specifying moderate rain events (5–25mm.day−1), but show noticeably less skill in producing both light (<1mm.day−1) and heavy rainfall thresholds (more than 50mm.day−1). Given the complexity of the terrain and the associated high spatial variability of precipitation in north-eastern Iberia, the results reveal that TMPA-3B42 data provide an informative addition to the spatial and temporal coverage of rain gauges in the domain, offering insights into characteristics of average precipitation and their spatial patterns. However, the satellite-based precipitation data should be used cautiously for monitoring extreme precipitation events, particularly over complex terrain. An improvement in precipitation algorithms is still needed to more accurately reproduce high precipitation events in areas of heterogeneous topography over this region.

Using the Back Propagation Neural Network Approach to Bias Correct TMPA Data in the Arid Region of Northwest China

Abstract Scarcity or unavailability of precipitation observation creates difficulties in hydrologic modeling of mountainous sections of the arid region of northwest China (34°–50°N, 72°–107°E). Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) precipitation products may be a potential substitute, but they should be evaluated and corrected with ground observation data before application. In this paper, two TRMM Multisatellite Precipitation Analysis (TMPA) precipitation products were evaluated by gauge observations, using indices such as frequency bias index, probability of detection, false alarm ratio, relative mean bias, Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency, and correlation coefficient. Terrain variables were extracted from a digital elevation model, and their rotated principal components were determined to establish a stepwise regression model to adjust TMPA precipitation. Additionally, a back-propagation (BP) neural network was established to correct TMPA precipitation. The results showed that TMPA had an unsatisfactory detection ability in the study area for both precipitation occurrence and amount. TMPA precipitation corrected by a stepwise regression method showed some improvement, but only the results for TRMM 3B43 on a subregion scale were acceptable. The BP neural network method showed better results than the stepwise regression method, and both TRMM 3B42 and TRMM 3B43 corrected by the former method on a subregion scale could be acceptable. Both methods were spatial-scale dependent and showed better results on a subregion scale than on a larger scale.

Evaluating the performance of remote sensing precipitation products CMORPH, PERSIANN, and TMPA, in the arid region of northwest China

The arid region of northwest China is a large area with complex topography. Hydrological research is limited by scarcity and uneven distribution of rain gauges. Satellite precipitation products provide wide coverage and high spatial–temporal resolutions, but the accuracy needs to be evaluated before application. In this paper, the reliability of four satellite precipitation products (CMORPH [Climate Prediction Center’s morphing technique], PERSIANN [Precipitation Estimation from Remotely Sensed Information using Artificial Neural Networks], TRMM [Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission] 3B42, and TRMM 3B43) were evaluated through comparison with ground data or reported values on daily, monthly, and annual scales from 2003 to 2010. Indices including frequency bias index, probability of detection, and false alarm ratio were used to evaluate recorded precipitation occurrences; relative mean bias, the correlation coefficient, and the Nash coefficient were used to assess precipitation amount. Satellite precipitation products were more accurate in the warm than in the cold season, and performed better in northern Xinjiang than in other regions during the cold season. CMORPH and PERSIANN tended to overestimate precipitation. TRMM 3B42 and TRMM 3B43 performed best because the former most accurately detected precipitation occurrences on a daily scale, and both produced accurate space–time distribution of precipitation and the best consistency with rain gauge observations. Only a few monthly precipitation values for TRMM 3B42 and TRMM 3B43, and annual precipitation values for TRMM 3B42 were with satisfactory precision. TRMM3B42 and TRMM 3B43 are therefore recommended, but correction will be needed before application. Factors including elevation, relative relief, longitude, and latitude had significant effects on the performance of satellite precipitation products, and these factors may be helpful in correcting satellite precipitation.

An algorithm for blending multiple satellite precipitation estimates with in situ precipitation measurements in Canada

[1] This study proposes an algorithm for blending multiple satellite precipitation estimates (SPEs) with in situ gauge precipitation measurements in Canada. Depending on the number of gauge stations in the target area, the algorithm employs gauge data alone or blends gauge data with the corresponding SPEs that have been corrected for biases using a novel bias removal procedure developed in this study. The performance of this algorithm is evaluated in terms of root-mean-square error (RMSE), frequency bias index, and Pierce skill score, using 10 year gauge data from southwestern Canada where there are enough valid gauge stations to be split into a training data set and an evaluation data set. Sensitivity of the algorithm to gauge density is assessed by using five training data sets representing sparse to moderate gauge densities. The results show that, in comparison with the SPEs and a kriging analysis of gauge data, the blended analysis has the smallest RMSE and is least biased and most skillful in all seasons, and that the lower the gauge density, the more superior the blended analysis is. When gauge density is low, kriging analysis of gauge data is worse than bias-corrected SPEs. The unadjusted SPEs are the worst by all measures considered, which indicate a need for a proper correction of biases in the SPEs. The blending algorithm is promising for producing a more realistic gridded precipitation, especially for gauge sparse regions, such as northern Canada. A blended analysis of monthly precipitation is produced and compared with several existing precipitation analyses.